Alerting Hezbollah to imminent invasion would be strange tactic from Israel – but it won’t have gone unnoticed
Remarks by the IDF’s chief of staff to Israeli forces on the northern border have given the impression a ground invasion of Lebanon could be close.
“Your military boots will enter enemy territory, enter villages that Hezbollah has prepared as large military outposts,” Lt General Herzi Halevi told troops.
“Your entry into those areas with force, your encounter with Hezbollah operatives, will show them what it means to face a professional, highly skilled and battle experienced force.”
Follow latest: ‘We are striking Lebanon to prepare for possible invasion’
It might sound like an eve of war speech, but there are signs the order to move is yet to come.
Openly alerting Hezbollah to an imminent invasion would be a strange tactic but Halevi’s statement won’t have gone unnoticed north of the border.
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IDF preparing Lebanon ground invasion
In war, words can be as powerful as any weapon.
Over recent days, Israeli fighter jets have taken out senior Hezbollah commanders, weapons stockpiles and infrastructure.
All this degrades Hezbollah’s ability to fight and softens the enemy ahead of an invasion, were one ordered. It is a common military tactic in the opening days of war.
Red dots indicate Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Source: Institute for the Study of War
The call-up of two reserve brigades today is also a logical step if a ground invasion is coming – they will provide support and backup to the divisions already positioned on the border.
Israel has had a very successful eight days in the air, but Hezbollah continues to fire missiles deep into Israel, targeting the Tel Aviv area for the first time today, and so other options of escalation are being considered.
Although a ground invasion would be the last resort, we are nearing that moment if the situation doesn’t change because, if nothing else, Israel now has fewer cards to play.
As I write, Benjamin Netanyahu is still due to travel to New York on Thursday to address the UN General Assembly, but someone in his office told me earlier that travel plans are changing hour by hour as the situation develops.
Would he leave the country if the army is about to enter Lebanon? Unlikely.
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If he does take off for the US east coast, he will use the trip to speak in private with allies and use the UN platform to remind the world what happened on 7 October.
There are finally early signs this evening of some diplomatic movement – President Biden is reportedly close to delivering a proposal for a pause in the fighting.
It could be published as soon as tonight, however, given the US’s track record of late, expectations of a ceasefire are low.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
That said, Prime Minister Netanyahu has instructed his close ally Ron Dermer to inform the White House that Israel is willing to listen.
That could be genuine but Netanyahu probably expects Hezbollah to reject any offer, so it might also be a tactic to give a future ground invasion more legitimacy if Israel can argue that Hezbollah turned down offers to talk.
We can say with some certainty that Israel has approved plans for an invasion of Lebanon and Israel’s forces are poised for the order to move, but we don’t know when that order will come – if at all.
World
Arrest warrants issued for Israeli PM Netanyahu and former defence secretary Gallant and senior Hamas commander over alleged war crimes
Arrest warrants have been issued for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former defence secretary Yoav Gallant and a senior Hamas commander by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
The warrants against the senior Israeli figures are for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity related to the war in Gaza that Israel launched following the 7 October attacks by Hamas.
The prime minister’s office said the warrants against him and Gallant were “anti-semitic” and said Israel “rejects with disgust the absurd and false actions”.
Another warrant was issued for the arrest of Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al Masri for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Al Masri, also known as Mohammed Deif, was the mastermind behind the 7 October attacks. It is unclear if he is still alive, following an airstrike that Israel claimed killed him earlier this year.
Neither Israel nor the US are members of the ICC. Israel has rejected the court’s jurisdiction and denies committing war crimes in Gaza.
US President Joe Biden described the warrants against Israeli leaders as “outrageous”, adding “whatever the ICC might imply, there is no equivalence – none – between Israel and Hamas”.
Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett said the warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant were a “mark of shame” for the ICC.
The court originally said it was seeking arrest warrants for the three men in May for the alleged crimes and today announced that it had rejected challenges by Israel and issued warrants of arrest.
The new UK Labour government said in the summer it would not oppose the ICC’s right to issue the warrants.
Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the UN general assembly. Pic: Reuters
Warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant
In its update, the ICC said it found “reasonable grounds to believe” that Netanyahu and Gallant “bear criminal responsibility” for alleged crimes.
These, the court said, include “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts”.
Netanyahu previously spoke of his “disgust” at the suggestion the ICC would seek an arrest warrant for him.
The Board of Deputies of British Jews said the ICC’s decision sent a “terrible message”.
“The court has minimised how Hamas fights – deliberately from within civilian infrastructure and cruelly using Palestinian civilians as human shields, tragically leading to many casualties,” the board said.
“Democratic governments, and people around the world, should consider how they would have responded to an October 7th perpetrated against their country, involving mass murder, rape, and hostage-taking.
“We should all be focused on defeating the Hamas terrorists, liberating the hostages, ensuring that civilians in Gaza receive all necessary aid and working towards a sustainable peace for Israelis and Palestinians to prevent these horrible conflicts in the future.
“The decision of the ICC is counter-productive in all these respects.”
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A video released by Hamas in 2005 shows a man identified as Mohammed Deif. Pic: AP
Warrant for Hamas leader
The ICC also said it has issued an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Al Masri, saying it has “reasonable grounds to believe” that he is responsible for crimes against humanity including murder, extermination, torture, rape, as well as war crimes including taking hostages.
Discussing the 7 October attacks, the court said: “In light of the coordinated killings of members of civilians at several separate locations, the Chamber also found that the conduct took place as part of a mass killing of members of the civilian population, and it therefore concluded that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the crime against humanity of extermination was committed.”
In its statement, the ICC said the prosecution was not in a position to determine whether Al Masri is dead or alive, so was issuing the arrest warrant.
The court previously said it was seeking an arrest warrant for Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas who was subsequently killed in July.
The home secretary has refused to say if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would be arrested if he landed on British soil after an international arrest warrant was issued for him.
On Thursday, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Israeli defence secretary Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity related to the war in Gaza.
But Yvette Cooper said the ICC, which the UK is a member of, is independent and while the government respects that, it “wouldn’t be appropriate for me to comment” on the processes involved.
She told Sky News: “We’ve always respected the importance of international law, but in the majority of the cases that they pursue, they don’t become part of the British legal process.
“What I can say is that obviously, the UK government’s position remains that we believe the focus should be on getting a ceasefire in Gaza.”
However, Emily Thornberry, Labour chair of the foreign affairs committee in parliament, told Sky News: “If Netanyahu comes to Britain, our obligation under the Rome Convention would be to arrest him under the warrant from the ICC.
“Not really a question of should, we are required to because we are members of the ICC.”
The government said after winning July’s election it would not oppose the ICC’s right to issue the warrants.
An ICC arrest warrant was also issued for Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al Masri, the mastermind behind the 7 October attacks in Israel, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Israel claims Al Masri was killed earlier this year but the ICC said that has not been confirmed, so it was issuing the arrest warrant.
Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant (right) have arrest warrants against them. File pic: Reuters
Netanyahu’s office said the warrants against him and Gallant were “anti-semitic” and said Israel “rejects with disgust the absurd and false actions”.
Neither Israel nor the US are members of the ICC. Israel has rejected the court’s jurisdiction and denies committing war crimes in Gaza.
US President Joe Biden described the warrants against Israeli leaders as “outrageous”, adding: “Whatever the ICC might imply, there is no equivalence – none – between Israel and Hamas.”
Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett said the warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant were a “mark of shame” for the ICC.
The Board of Deputies of British Jews said the ICC’s decision sent a “terrible message”.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Friday he would invite Netanyahu to visit Hungary and he would guarantee the arrest warrant would “not be observed”.
However, both France and Italy signalled they would arrest Netanyahu if he came to their countries.
Read more:
What satellite images tell us about North Gaza
Hamas ready for Gaza ceasefire ‘immediately’
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Why have arrest warrants been issued?
The ICC originally said it was seeking arrest warrants for the three men in May for the alleged crimes and on Thursday announced that it had rejected challenges by Israel and issued warrants of arrest.
In its update, the ICC said it found “reasonable grounds to believe” that Netanyahu and Gallant “bear criminal responsibility” for alleged crimes.
These, the court said, include “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts”.
It is the first time a sitting leader of a major Western ally has been accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity by a global court of justice.
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