Israel and Hezbollah on brink of all-out war – the key moments that brought us here
An Israeli military chief has told his troops that airstrikes in Lebanon are preparing the way for a “possible” ground assault designed to “degrade” Hezbollah, bringing the region closer to all-out war.
While the Lebanese militant group, which is backed by Iran and an ally of Hamas, has been involved in a constant tit-for-tat with Israel since 7 October, the recent strikes in Lebanon have killed hundreds of people and caused tens of thousands to flee.
Lebanon’s health ministry said Israeli strikes on Wednesday had killed 51 people and injured more than 220.
Red dots indicate Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Source: Institute for the Study of War
Now, with a possible ground invasion looming, Sky News’ Data and Forensics team looks at the turning points in the last two months which have brought us to this point.
Missile strike on football field
The start of the current escalation began on 27 July, when a missile struck a football field in Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teenagers.
The missile strike hit a football field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Pic: AP
Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack, but analysis by Sky News’ Data and Forensics Unit found the group had been targeting the Ma’ale Golani military base, 2.4km (1.5 miles) away, on the same day.
The alleged launch site puts the football field squarely in the path of a rocket aimed at the military base, suggesting it may have overshot its target.
Hezbollah said it had targeted the base in response to Israeli attacks on southern villages in Lebanon.
Assassination campaign begins
In response to the deadly attack, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed heavy retaliation against Hezbollah which would come in the form of a months-long campaign of assassinations targeting Hezbollah’s senior leadership – which military analysts say is intended to sow chaos and confusion in the militant group’s ranks.
Israel’s first target was Fuad Shukr, the right-hand man to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. On the night of 30 July, three days after the strike at Majdal Shams, Israel struck a residential building in the heart of Beirut, killing Shukr.
Killing of Hamas leader
Hours later, an explosion in Iran’s capital Tehran blew up a room in a military-run guest house, killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Israel has not claimed or denied responsibility for the blast. Iran vowed to respond to this attack, but the retaliation never came.
Sky News’ defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke says the lack of response to Haniyeh’s death was “critical” in showing the limits of Iran’s willingness to retaliate against attacks on its allies.
Over the following weeks, Hezbollah increased its rate of attacks on Israel but held back from broader escalation as Israel’s assassination campaign continued.
On 20 August, Ibrahim Aqil, Hezbollah’s head of operations and commander of its elite Radwan forces, was killed in an Israeli strike.
Five days later, Israel targeted numerous locations across Lebanon in its biggest wave of strikes since the war began. Conflict-monitoring organisation ACLED recorded 74 individual attacks. The IDF said these strikes were intended to disrupt forthcoming Hezbollah attacks.
Exploding devices in Lebanon
But it wasn’t until 17 September that Israel appeared to really show its hand with a series of deadly exploding pagers and radio devices. Pagers exploded inside supermarkets and phone shops across Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon.
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Apparent explosion at Lebanon market
The attacks on 17 and 18 September killed at least 32 people and injured more than 3,000 others.
Hezbollah blamed Israel for the attacks but Israeli President Isaac Herzog said he “rejects” any connection to the operation. US government sources reportedly acknowledged Israel’s involvement in private.
Reports also suggested the timing of the attacks was not of Israel’s choosing, but that it felt compelled to act after Hezbollah grew suspicious of the devices.
Since then, Israel has reportedly moved troops from its elite 98th Division to the border with Lebanon.
Israel has also escalated its bombing of Lebanon, with NASA satellite data showing an increase in thermal anomalies in previous days, which is likely linked to the Israeli strikes.
Satellite data showing thermal anomalies in Lebanon between 19-25 September. Source: NASA FIRMS
On 19 September, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said it hit around 100 Hezbollah launch sites across southern Lebanon.
It’s also continued to target senior Hezbollah commanders. A strike in Beirut one day later killed top commander Ahmed Wahbi, while a strike on 23 September reportedly targeted Ali Karaki, commander of Hezbollah’s southern front.
“They’re preparing the battlefield… they’re preparing southern Lebanon for a ground invasion,” says Prof Clarke.
Hezbollah has estimated 150,000 rockets
Preparing the ground means reducing Hezbollah’s ability to use its ultimate weapon – the estimated 150,000 rockets at its disposal.
That arsenal potentially gives them the ability to launch thousands of rockets per hour over several days, striking deep into Israel and overwhelming its air defences.
“If Israel is going to move in on the ground against Hezbollah, they want to do all they can to make it very difficult for Hezbollah to do that,” Prof Clarke says.
Israel’s defences have been tested in recent days, with its system of missile alerts recording a dramatic rise in attacks.
Hezbollah’s most audacious attack came on 25 September where sirens sounded across Tel Aviv. Shortly after, a surface-to-air missile was intercepted.
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Israel intercepts missile from Lebanon
Hezbollah claimed responsibility and said it was targeting the headquarters of Israel’s spy agency Mossad. Israeli data for 25 September shows an average of one alert every five minutes.
The situation on the ground remains tense and the cost of an all-out war would be high for both Israel and Hezbollah.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
World
‘Atrocious’ killing of 15 aid workers by Israel must be independently investigated, Palestine Red Crescent says
The Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) has demanded an independent investigation into the “atrocious” deaths of 15 aid workers killed by Israeli troops in Gaza in March.
The group’s president, Dr Younis al Khatib, said he had asked the UN Security Council to form an investigation committee into the “intentional killing of the medics”.
In response to Sky’s Alistair Bunkall, spokesman David Mencer claimed the killings were the result of Hamas hiding among civilians and using them as human shields.
But speaking in Ramallah, Dr al Khatib said those responsible must be held “accountable for these crimes” via international humanitarian law and the Geneva Convention.
“It’s not enough to comfort us with condolences and nice words of investigation and accountability. There has to be action taken,” he added.
He urged an “independent and thorough investigation of this atrocious crime” and that “no one should be above the law”.
“So many questions being asked of the Israelis,” he said.
“Why were they killed? Why did you destroy the ambulances after killing them? Why did you try to dig deep and hide the ambulances? They have to answer for that.”
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said on Monday that a preliminary inquiry into the shooting “indicated the troops opened fire due to a perceived threat following a previous encounter in the area”.
The IDF added that “six of the individuals killed in the incident were identified as Hamas terrorists”.
It comes after footage at the weekend showed the moment the aid workers were killed, with ambulances and fire insignia clearly visible and red lights flashing.
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Phone footage contradicts Israeli claims of killing of Gaza medics
The paramedic filming, later found with a bullet in his head, is heard saying there are Israelis present and reciting a declaration of faith often used before someone dies.
He adds: “Forgive me, mother, this is the path I chose mother, to help people, forgive me, mother, I swear I chose this path only to help people.”
The Israeli military originally claimed the vehicles – which were travelling north of Rafah on 23 March – didn’t have headlights or emergency signals on and were targeted as they looked “suspicious”.
An IDF investigation is ongoing, but an Israeli government spokesman claimed on Monday that “six Hamas terrorists” were among those killed.
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‘Demands’ for medic death investigation
Mr Mencer said: “IDF soldiers opened fire at a distance at vehicles moving suspiciously in their direction.
“Among the dead were six Hamas terrorists – what were Hamas terrorists doing in ambulances? The incident was reported in real time to UN officials.”
He claimed there were “many documented occasions” when Hamas had used ambulances as cover.
An evacuation order was also in place at the time, which meant moving vehicles were prohibited, according to Israel.
The head of the UN’s humanitarian affairs office, Jonathan Whittall, said the 15 people were found in a “mass grave” in the sand.
He said those killed comprised eight members of the PRCS, six civil defence members and one UN employee.
Dylan Winder, from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), said it was “outraged at the deaths” and that “even in the most complex conflict zones, there are rules”.
“They were humanitarians. They wore emblems that should have been protected. Their ambulances were clearly marked, and they should have returned to their families. They did not,” he said.
World
His only ‘crime’ is being Venezuelan and having tattoos, says brother of man ‘thrown to the lions’ in El Salvador jail
Until five weeks ago, Arturo Suarez was a professional singer, performing in the United States as he waited for his asylum claim to be processed.
Originally from Venezuela, he had entered the US through proper, legal channels.
But he is now imprisoned in a notorious jail in El Salvador, sent there by the Trump administration, despite seemingly never having faced trial or committed any crime. The White House claims he is a gang member but has not provided evidence to support this allegation.
His brother, Nelson Suarez, told Sky News he believes his brother’s only “crime” is being Venezuelan and having tattoos.
Arturo Suarez, in a music video, is now in a notorious prison in El Salvador
“He is not a gang member,” Nelson says, adamantly, “I’ve come to the conclusion that it has to be because of the tattoos. If you don’t have a criminal record, you haven’t committed any crime in the United States, what other reason could there be? Because you’re Venezuelan?”
Arturo, 34, was recording a music video inside a house in March when he was arrested by immigration agents.
He was first taken to a deportation centre in El Paso, Texas, and then, it appears, put on to a military flight to El Salvador.
Nelson Suarez insists his brother Arturo is not a gang member
His family have not heard from him since. Lawyers and immigrant rights groups have been unable to make contact with any of the more than 200 Venezuelan men sent to the CECOT prison, which holds members of the MS-13 and Tren de Aragua gangs.
Tattoo clue to Arturo Suarez’s whereabouts
Nelson learned his brother is – most likely – in CECOT only because of a photograph he spotted on a news website of a group of inmates, with their hands and feet cuffed, heads shaved and bodies shackled together.
A group of inmates are processed to be imprisoned in the CECOT jail in EL Salvador. Pic: Reuters
Nelson Suarez believes this is his brother Arturo Suarez due to his distinctive hummingbird tattoo. Pic: Reuters
“You can see the hummingbird tattoo on his neck,” Nelson says, pointing to the picture. He says Arturo wanted a hummingbird in memory of their late mother. Arturo has 33 tattoos in total, including a piano, poems and verses from the Bible.
It could be that one, or more, of those tattoos landed him at the centre of President Trump’s anti-immigration showpiece. Nelson shows me documents which indicate that Arturo did not have a criminal record in Venezuela, Chile, Colombia or the United States, the four countries he has lived in.
Sky News contacted the White House, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for a response to Arturo’s case but have not heard back.
In March, Donald Trump signed the Alien Enemies Act, a law from 1798 which has been invoked just three times before, in wartime.
It allows the president to detain and deport immigrants living legally in the US if they are from countries deemed “enemies” of the government. In this instance, Mr Trump claimed the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua had “infiltrated the United States” and was “conducting irregular warfare”.
Alleged gang members imprisoned in the CECOT jail in El Salvador. Pic: Reuters
Gang symbol tattoos
Immigration officials have centred on certain tattoos being gang symbols. Immigration officers were provided with a document called the “Alien Enemy Validation Guide”, according to a court filing from the American Civil Liberties Union. The document provides a point-based system to determine if an immigrant in custody “may be validated” as a gang member.
Migrants who score six points and higher may be designated as members of the Tren de Aragua gang, according to the document. Tattoos which fall under a “symbolism” category score four points and social media posts “displaying” gang symbols are two points. Tattoos considered suspicious, according to the document, include crowns, stars and the Michael Jordan Jumpman logo.
Jerce Reyes Barrios’s story
Another of the men sent to CECOT prison is 36-year-old Jerce Reyes Barrios, who fled Venezuela last year after marching in anti-government protests. He is a former footballer and football coach.
His lawyer, Linette Tobin, told Sky News that Reyes Barrios entered the US legally after waiting in Mexico for four months for an immigration appointment and then presenting himself at the border.
Jerce Reyes Barrios
She says he was detained in a maximum security prison in the US while awaiting his asylum appointment. But before that appointment happened, he was flown to the El Salvador prison.
Ms Tobin says the DHS deported Reyes Barrios because they designated him a Tren De Aragua gang member based on two pieces of evidence.
The first, she says, is a tattoo of the Real Madrid football team logo surrounded by rosary beads. She has since obtained a declaration from the tattoo artist stating that Reyes Barrios just wanted an image which depicted his favourite team.
Jerce Reyes Barrios’s lawyer says he has a tattoo of the Real Madrid logo surrounded by rosary beads
The second piece of evidence, she says, is a photograph, which she shows me, of Reyes Barrios in a hot tub with friends when he was a college student 13 years ago.
He is making a gesture which could be interpreted as “rock and roll”, but which she says has been interpreted as a gang symbol.
Lawyer Linette Tobin says this gesture has been interpreted as a gang symbol
Distraught family in despair
Reyes Barrios has no criminal record in his home country. “I’ve never known anything like this,” Ms Tobin says.
“My client was deported to a third country and we have no way of getting in touch with him. His family are distraught and in despair, they cry a lot, not knowing what is going on with him. We want him returned to the United States to have a hearing and due process.”
Ms Tobin says she and other lawyers representing men sent to the El Salvador prison are trying to establish a UN working group on enforced disappearances to do a wellness check on them because the prison is completely “incommunicado”.
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17 March: US migrants deported to El Salvador
Sky News contacted the DHS for comment about Reyes Barrios’s case but did not receive a response. The DHS previously issued a statement declaring that “DHS intelligence assessments go well beyond just gang-affiliated tattoos. This man’s own social media indicates he is a member of Tren de Aragua”.
Reyes Barrios has an immigration hearing scheduled for 17 April, Ms Tobin says, which the Trump administration is trying to dismiss on the grounds that he is not in the US anymore.
In the meantime, children he used to coach football for in his hometown of Machiques in Venezuela have been holding a prayer vigil for him and calling for his release.
The secretary of the DHS, Kristi Noem, visited CECOT last month and posed for photos standing in front of inmates behind bars.
Department of Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem visited CECOT in March. Pic: Reuters
“Do not come to our country illegally,” she said, “you will be removed, and you will be prosecuted.” Donald Trump had promised during his election campaign to clamp down on immigration, railing against undocumented immigrants and claiming immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country”.
I ask Arturo Suarez’s brother, Nelson, how he felt watching Ms Noem posing in the prison, knowing that his brother might be close by.
“I feel bad,” he says, “I feel horrible, because in those images we only see criminals. With my brother, I feel it is more a political issue. They needed numbers, they said, these are the numbers, and now, let’s throw them to the lions.”
Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Pic: AP
Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s story
The Trump administration has admitted that at least one man sent to the El Salvador jail was sent by “administrative error”. Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who was living in Maryland, was sent to CECOT despite a judge’s earlier ruling in 2019 that granted him legal protection to stay in the US.
The White House has alleged Garcia is an MS-13 gang member, but his lawyers argued there is no evidence to prove this.
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A federal judge has ordered Garcia must be returned to the US by Monday 7 April. In a post on X, White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller referred to the judge as a “Marxist”, who “now thinks she’s president of El Salvador”.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “We suggest the judge contact President Bukele because we are unaware of the judge having jurisdiction or authority over the country of El Salvador.”
World
Israeli airstrikes kill more than 30 people in Gaza – including more than a dozen women and children
Israeli airstrikes have killed more than 30 people in Gaza, including over a dozen women and children, local health officials have said.
Strikes overnight into Sunday hit a tent and a house in Khan Younis, killing five men, five women and five children, according to Nasser Hospital, which received the bodies.
Later on Sunday, at least two people were killed, and six others injured when an Israeli airstrike hit a tent in Khan Younis located outside the Nasser hospital, which was being used as a base by a number of journalists.
A number of them were among the injured, according to hospital officials.
Footage showed a journalist being engulfed by flames after his tent was hit by an airstrike. He is reported to be in a critical condition.
On Sunday, at least two people were killed, and six others injured when an Israeli airstrike hit a tent in Khan Younis which was being used as a base by a number of journalists. Pic: AP
Pic: AP
Pic: AP
Israeli shelling killed at least four people in the Jabaliya refugee camp, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run Health Ministry.
The bodies of seven people, including a child and three women, arrived at Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al Balah, according to an Associated Press journalist there.
And a strike in Gaza City hit people waiting outside a bakery, killing six, including three children, according to the civil defence, which operates under the Hamas-run government.
Last month, Israel ended its ceasefire with Hamas and restarted its air and ground offensive.
It has carried out waves of strikes and seized territory in an attempt to pressure Hamas to accept a new deal for a truce and release the remaining hostages.
It has also blocked the import of food, fuel and humanitarian aid for over a month.
“Stocks are getting low and the situation is becoming desperate,” the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees said on social media.
Read more from Sky News:
Stock markets tumble as Trump calls tariffs ‘medicine’
Starmer promises ‘bold changes’ in wake of tariffs
Furious row after Labour MPs denied entry to Israel
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Israel ‘seizing territory’ in Gaza
On Sunday night, Israel’s military ordered Palestinians to evacuate several neighbourhoods in Gaza’s Deir al Balah shortly after around 10 projectiles were fired from Gaza.
The military said around five were intercepted, and Hamas’s military arm claimed responsibility.
Police said a rocket fell in Ashkelon, an Israeli city just to the north of Gaza, and fragments fell in several other areas.
The Magen David Adom emergency service said one man was lightly injured, and the military later said it struck a rocket launcher in Gaza.
A woman bakes bread in an oven in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters
Netanyahu visits Trump
It comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu heads to the United States to meet with Donald Trump to discuss the war.
Mr Netanyahu said the pair would also discuss the new 17% tariff imposed on Israel as part of Mr Trump’s sweeping new tariffs.
“There is a very large queue of leaders who want to do this with respect to their economies. I think it reflects the special personal connection and the special connection between the United States and Israel, which is so vital at this time,” Mr Netanyahu said during a visit to Hungary.
The war between Israel and Hamas began when Hamas-led militants invaded Israel on 7 October 2023 and killed around 1,200 people and took 251 hostage.
Some 59 hostages are still being held in Gaza, with 24 still believed to be alive.
Israel’s offensive has killed at least 50,695 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians or combatants, with another 115,338 wounded.
Israel says it has killed around 20,000 militants.
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