Israel and Hezbollah on brink of all-out war – the key moments that brought us here
An Israeli military chief has told his troops that airstrikes in Lebanon are preparing the way for a “possible” ground assault designed to “degrade” Hezbollah, bringing the region closer to all-out war.
While the Lebanese militant group, which is backed by Iran and an ally of Hamas, has been involved in a constant tit-for-tat with Israel since 7 October, the recent strikes in Lebanon have killed hundreds of people and caused tens of thousands to flee.
Lebanon’s health ministry said Israeli strikes on Wednesday had killed 51 people and injured more than 220.
Red dots indicate Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Source: Institute for the Study of War
Now, with a possible ground invasion looming, Sky News’ Data and Forensics team looks at the turning points in the last two months which have brought us to this point.
Missile strike on football field
The start of the current escalation began on 27 July, when a missile struck a football field in Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teenagers.
The missile strike hit a football field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Pic: AP
Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack, but analysis by Sky News’ Data and Forensics Unit found the group had been targeting the Ma’ale Golani military base, 2.4km (1.5 miles) away, on the same day.
The alleged launch site puts the football field squarely in the path of a rocket aimed at the military base, suggesting it may have overshot its target.
Hezbollah said it had targeted the base in response to Israeli attacks on southern villages in Lebanon.
Assassination campaign begins
In response to the deadly attack, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed heavy retaliation against Hezbollah which would come in the form of a months-long campaign of assassinations targeting Hezbollah’s senior leadership – which military analysts say is intended to sow chaos and confusion in the militant group’s ranks.
Israel’s first target was Fuad Shukr, the right-hand man to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. On the night of 30 July, three days after the strike at Majdal Shams, Israel struck a residential building in the heart of Beirut, killing Shukr.
Killing of Hamas leader
Hours later, an explosion in Iran’s capital Tehran blew up a room in a military-run guest house, killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Israel has not claimed or denied responsibility for the blast. Iran vowed to respond to this attack, but the retaliation never came.
Sky News’ defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke says the lack of response to Haniyeh’s death was “critical” in showing the limits of Iran’s willingness to retaliate against attacks on its allies.
Over the following weeks, Hezbollah increased its rate of attacks on Israel but held back from broader escalation as Israel’s assassination campaign continued.
On 20 August, Ibrahim Aqil, Hezbollah’s head of operations and commander of its elite Radwan forces, was killed in an Israeli strike.
Five days later, Israel targeted numerous locations across Lebanon in its biggest wave of strikes since the war began. Conflict-monitoring organisation ACLED recorded 74 individual attacks. The IDF said these strikes were intended to disrupt forthcoming Hezbollah attacks.
Exploding devices in Lebanon
But it wasn’t until 17 September that Israel appeared to really show its hand with a series of deadly exploding pagers and radio devices. Pagers exploded inside supermarkets and phone shops across Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon.
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Apparent explosion at Lebanon market
The attacks on 17 and 18 September killed at least 32 people and injured more than 3,000 others.
Hezbollah blamed Israel for the attacks but Israeli President Isaac Herzog said he “rejects” any connection to the operation. US government sources reportedly acknowledged Israel’s involvement in private.
Reports also suggested the timing of the attacks was not of Israel’s choosing, but that it felt compelled to act after Hezbollah grew suspicious of the devices.
Since then, Israel has reportedly moved troops from its elite 98th Division to the border with Lebanon.
Israel has also escalated its bombing of Lebanon, with NASA satellite data showing an increase in thermal anomalies in previous days, which is likely linked to the Israeli strikes.
Satellite data showing thermal anomalies in Lebanon between 19-25 September. Source: NASA FIRMS
On 19 September, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said it hit around 100 Hezbollah launch sites across southern Lebanon.
It’s also continued to target senior Hezbollah commanders. A strike in Beirut one day later killed top commander Ahmed Wahbi, while a strike on 23 September reportedly targeted Ali Karaki, commander of Hezbollah’s southern front.
“They’re preparing the battlefield… they’re preparing southern Lebanon for a ground invasion,” says Prof Clarke.
Hezbollah has estimated 150,000 rockets
Preparing the ground means reducing Hezbollah’s ability to use its ultimate weapon – the estimated 150,000 rockets at its disposal.
That arsenal potentially gives them the ability to launch thousands of rockets per hour over several days, striking deep into Israel and overwhelming its air defences.
“If Israel is going to move in on the ground against Hezbollah, they want to do all they can to make it very difficult for Hezbollah to do that,” Prof Clarke says.
Israel’s defences have been tested in recent days, with its system of missile alerts recording a dramatic rise in attacks.
Hezbollah’s most audacious attack came on 25 September where sirens sounded across Tel Aviv. Shortly after, a surface-to-air missile was intercepted.
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Israel intercepts missile from Lebanon
Hezbollah claimed responsibility and said it was targeting the headquarters of Israel’s spy agency Mossad. Israeli data for 25 September shows an average of one alert every five minutes.
The situation on the ground remains tense and the cost of an all-out war would be high for both Israel and Hezbollah.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
World
Trump doubles down on Putin criticism – as Russia offers Ukraine a date and location for peace talks
Donald Trump has doubled down on his criticism of Vladimir Putin – adding he will know soon if the Russian leader is just “tapping” him along.
The US president told reporters at the White House that he believed his counterpart in Moscow may be intentionally delaying ceasefire talks, while he also expressed disappointment at heavy Russian bombing over the weekend.
While Mr Trump has so far stopped short of imposing sanctions – to avoid, he says, “screwing up” negotiations – he warned his stance could change.
Ukraine Q&A: Are we any closer to war ending?
The president said: “We’re going to find out whether or not he’s tapping us along or not, and if he is, we’ll respond a little differently,” adding that he “can’t tell you” if Mr Putin wanted peace.
Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
His comments in the Oval Office came minutes after Russia’s foreign minister announced that the Kremlin had offered Ukraine a second round of talks on 2 June in Istanbul.
Kyiv did not immediately respond to the proposal, which Sergei Lavrov said would see Moscow hand their proposals for a potential peace deal directly to Ukraine.
“We hope that all those who are sincerely, and not just in words, interested in the success of the peace process will support holding a new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul,” Mr Lavrov added.
Later on Wednesday, Ukraine’s defence minister Rustem Umerov said his government was “not against” further meetings, but called for Russia to deliver its memorandum to Kyiv beforehand.
Meanwhile, Mr Lavrov also hit out at Germany for agreeing to finance the production of long-range missiles in Ukraine, accusing Berlin of showing it is “already a participant in the war”.
However, German leader Friedrich Merz declined to say that his country would hand over the Taurus missiles that Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy – who was in Berlin on Wednesday – has long wanted.
Ukraine’s need for ammunition has become all the more urgent after Russia launched some of the largest aerial assaults of the war so far over the weekend.
Read more:
Would ‘smart’ missiles allow Ukraine to hit key bridge?
Lavrov accuses West of secrecy over strikes
Russia said it had downed 296 Ukrainian drones over 13 regions overnight, while Ukraine said it had struck several weapon production sites.
Kyiv, in turn, said Moscow had launched 88 drones and five ballistic missiles since Tuesday.
World
Hamas’s Gaza chief ‘eliminated’, says Netanyahu – but military sources say they cannot confirm death
Hamas’s Gaza chief Mohammed Sinwar has been “eliminated”, according to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
But Israeli military sources have said they are not yet able to confirm the death.
Hamas has also not yet confirmed the apparent killing of its leader.
Meanwhile, with Gaza on the brink of famine, the Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations broke down in tears as he spoke of the suffering of its people.
Palestinian ambassador Riyad Mansour broke down in tears as he spoke of the suffering of people in Gaza
Riyah Mansour told the Security Council: “Children are dying of starvation. The images of mothers embracing their motionless bodies. Caressing their hair, talking to them, apologising to them, is unbearable.”
He added: “I have grandchildren. I know what they mean to their families. And to see this situation over the Palestinians without us having hearts to do something is beyond the ability of any normal human being to tolerate. Flames and hunger are devouring Palestinian children. This is why we are so outraged as Palestinians everywhere.”
Sinwar was one of Israel‘s most wanted and the younger brother of the Palestinian militant group’s former leader Yahya Sinwar.
The older sibling was the mastermind of the October 7 2023 attack, which killed 1,200 people in Israel, with around 250 others taken hostage into Gaza.
The attack triggered Israel’s assault on Gaza which decimated the territory, with more than 53,000 people killed, mostly women and children, and over two million displaced, according to health officials, who do not distinguish between civilians and combatants in their tally of fatalities.
Yahya Sinwar was killed by Israel in October 2024. File pic: AP
Yahya Sinwar was killed in a gun battle with Israeli troops in Gaza last October. His younger sibling was believed to have then become the head of Hamas’s armed wing.
Speaking to the Knesset on Wednesday, Mr Netanyahu included Mohammed Sinwar in a list of Hamas leaders killed in Israeli strikes. Later, Israel Defence Forces (IDF) sources said they were not yet able to confirm the death.
The prime minister said: “We have killed tens of thousands of terrorists. We killed (Mohammed) Deif, (Ismail) Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Sinwar.” He did not elaborate.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s claimed could not be confirmed. Pic: AP
Mohammed Sinwar had reportedly been the target of an Israeli strike on a hospital in southern Gaza on 13 May and Mr Netanyahu said on 21 May that it was likely he had been killed.
The Israeli military had said it struck a Hamas command centre under the European Hospital in the Sinwars’ hometown of Khan Younis, and it declined to comment on whether Sinwar was targeted or killed.
At least six people were killed in the strike and 40 wounded, Gaza’s health ministry said at the time.
Sinwar rose through ranks
Like his older brother, Mohammed Sinwar joined Hamas after it was founded in the late 1980s as the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. He became a member of the group’s military wing, known as the Qassam Brigades.
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Sinwar rose through the ranks to become a member of its so-called joint chiefs of staff, bringing him close to its longtime commander, Deif, who was killed in a strike last year.
Read more from Sky News:
Humanitarian chief talks of Gaza ‘catastrophe’
UN boss condemns ‘teaspoon’ of aid allowed into Gaza
“In the last two days, we have been in a dramatic turn towards a complete defeat of Hamas,” the Israeli leader told the Knesset.
Mr Netanyahu also spoke about how Israel was “taking control of food distribution”, a reference to a new aid distribution system that has been criticised and boycotted by humanitarian groups and the UN.
One killed at site of aid hub
The development comes after one person was killed and 48 others injured when forces opened fire on a crowd that overwhelmed an aid hub in Gaza, according to local health officials.
Palestinians have become increasingly desperate for food after almost three months of Israeli border closures. A blockade has recently been eased.
People broke through fences around the distribution site on Wednesday, and a journalist with the Associated Press said they heard Israeli tank and gunfire, and saw a military helicopter firing flares.
It was not yet known whether the death and injuries were caused by Israeli forces, private contractors or others.
The Israeli and US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which set up the hub outside Rafah, said its military contractors had not fired on the crowd but “fell back” before resuming aid operations. Israel said its troops nearby had fired warning shots.
The UN and other humanitarian organisations have rejected the new system, saying it will not meet the needs of Gaza’s 2.3 million people and allows Israel to use food to control the population.
Israel has vowed to seize control of Gaza and fight until Hamas is destroyed or disarmed and exiled, and until the militant group returns the last 58 hostages, including around a third thought to be still alive.
‘This is a man-made catastrophe’
Meanwhile, a US trauma surgeon who has been working in Gaza urged the UN Security Council to not “claim ignorance” about the humanitarian devastation.
Dr Feroze Sidhwa said: “Let’s not forget, this is a man-made catastrophe. It is entirely preventable. Participating in it or not allowing it to happen is a choice.
“This is a deliberate denial of conditions necessary for life: food, shelter, water and medicine. Preventing genocide means refusing to normalise these atrocities.”
The UN World Health Organization has documented around 700 attacks on healthcare facilities in Gaza during the war. Israel accuses Hamas of using hospitals as command centres and to hide fighters.
Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan Tate have been charged with rape and other offences in the UK.
Andrew Tate, 38, faces 10 charges, including rape, actual bodily harm, human trafficking and controlling prostitution for gain, relating to three women.
His brother Tristan Tate, 36, faces 11 charges relating to one woman – including rape, actual bodily harm and human trafficking.
The charges were authorised in January 2024, but full details have only been released now.
Bedfordshire Police issued an international arrest warrant for the brothers over allegations, which they “unequivocally deny”, said to have occurred between 2012 and 2015.
The Tate brothers are facing separate allegations of trafficking minors, sexual intercourse with a minor and money laundering in Romania.
They are also accused of human trafficking and forming a criminal gang to sexually exploit women in a different case, which has been sent back to prosecutors.
They are due to be extradited to the UK following the conclusion of proceedings in Romania.
Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan outside a Bucharest court in January. File pic: Inquam Photos/Octav Ganea via Reuters
A Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) spokesperson said: “We can confirm that we have authorised charges against Andrew and Tristan Tate for offences including rape, human trafficking, controlling prostitution and actual bodily harm against three women.
“These charging decisions followed receipt of a file of evidence from Bedfordshire Police.
“A European Arrest Warrant was issued in England in 2024, and as a result the Romanian courts ordered the extradition to the UK of Andrew and Tristan Tate.”
The spokesperson added: “However, the domestic criminal matters in Romania must be settled first.
“The Crown Prosecution Service reminds everyone that criminal proceedings are active, and the defendants have the right to a fair trial.
“It is extremely important that there be no reporting, commentary or sharing of information online which could in any way prejudice these proceedings.”
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Representatives for Andrew Tate have been contacted by Sky News for comment.
Lawyer Matt Jury, of McCue Jury & Partners, representing several alleged British victims of Andrew Tate, said: “We welcome the clarity from the Crown Prosecution Service that our authorities are working to ensure the Tates face justice here in the UK – they cannot be allowed to escape extradition.
“At the same time, we ask once more that CPS admit its mistake in failing to prosecute Tate when he lived in the UK and finally charge him for the rape and assault of the other three women, our clients, who originally filed criminal complaints against him as long ago as 2014 but were failed by the system.
“They deserve justice, too.”
The allegations were subject to a police investigation, which was closed in 2019.
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