An Israeli military chief has told his troops that airstrikes in Lebanon are preparing the way for a “possible” ground assault designed to “degrade” Hezbollah, bringing the region closer to all-out war.
While the Lebanese militant group, which is backed by Iran and an ally of Hamas, has been involved in a constant tit-for-tat with Israel since 7 October, the recent strikes in Lebanon have killed hundreds of people and caused tens of thousands to flee.
Lebanon’s health ministry said Israeli strikes on Wednesday had killed 51 people and injured more than 220.
Now, with a possible ground invasion looming, Sky News’ Data and Forensics team looks at the turning points in the last two months which have brought us to this point.
Missile strike on football field
The start of the current escalation began on 27 July, when a missile struck a football field in Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teenagers.
Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack, but analysis by Sky News’ Data and Forensics Unit found the group had been targeting the Ma’ale Golani military base, 2.4km (1.5 miles) away, on the same day.
The alleged launch site puts the football field squarely in the path of a rocket aimed at the military base, suggesting it may have overshot its target.
Hezbollah said it had targeted the base in response to Israeli attacks on southern villages in Lebanon.
Assassination campaign begins
In response to the deadly attack, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed heavy retaliation against Hezbollah which would come in the form of a months-long campaign of assassinations targeting Hezbollah’s senior leadership – which military analysts say is intended to sow chaos and confusion in the militant group’s ranks.
Israel’s first target was Fuad Shukr, the right-hand man to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. On the night of 30 July, three days after the strike at Majdal Shams, Israel struck a residential building in the heart of Beirut, killing Shukr.
Killing of Hamas leader
Hours later, an explosion in Iran’s capital Tehran blew up a room in a military-run guest house, killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Israel has not claimed or denied responsibility for the blast. Iran vowed to respond to this attack, but the retaliation never came.
Sky News’ defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke says the lack of response to Haniyeh’s death was “critical” in showing the limits of Iran’s willingness to retaliate against attacks on its allies.
Over the following weeks, Hezbollah increased its rate of attacks on Israel but held back from broader escalation as Israel’s assassination campaign continued.
On 20 August, Ibrahim Aqil, Hezbollah’s head of operations and commander of its elite Radwan forces, was killed in an Israeli strike.
Five days later, Israel targeted numerous locations across Lebanon in its biggest wave of strikes since the war began. Conflict-monitoring organisation ACLED recorded 74 individual attacks. The IDF said these strikes were intended to disrupt forthcoming Hezbollah attacks.
Exploding devices in Lebanon
But it wasn’t until 17 September that Israel appeared to really show its hand with a series of deadly exploding pagers and radio devices. Pagers exploded inside supermarkets and phone shops across Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon.
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Apparent explosion at Lebanon market
The attacks on 17 and 18 September killed at least 32 people and injured more than 3,000 others.
Hezbollah blamed Israel for the attacks but Israeli President Isaac Herzog said he “rejects” any connection to the operation. US government sources reportedly acknowledged Israel’s involvement in private.
Reports also suggested the timing of the attacks was not of Israel’s choosing, but that it felt compelled to act after Hezbollah grew suspicious of the devices.
Since then, Israel has reportedly moved troops from its elite 98th Division to the border with Lebanon.
Israel has also escalated its bombing of Lebanon, with NASA satellite data showing an increase in thermal anomalies in previous days, which is likely linked to the Israeli strikes.
On 19 September, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said it hit around 100 Hezbollah launch sites across southern Lebanon.
It’s also continued to target senior Hezbollah commanders. A strike in Beirut one day later killed top commander Ahmed Wahbi, while a strike on 23 September reportedly targeted Ali Karaki, commander of Hezbollah’s southern front.
“They’re preparing the battlefield… they’re preparing southern Lebanon for a ground invasion,” says Prof Clarke.
Hezbollah has estimated 150,000 rockets
Preparing the ground means reducing Hezbollah’s ability to use its ultimate weapon – the estimated 150,000 rockets at its disposal.
That arsenal potentially gives them the ability to launch thousands of rockets per hour over several days, striking deep into Israel and overwhelming its air defences.
“If Israel is going to move in on the ground against Hezbollah, they want to do all they can to make it very difficult for Hezbollah to do that,” Prof Clarke says.
Israel’s defences have been tested in recent days, with its system of missile alerts recording a dramatic rise in attacks.
Hezbollah’s most audacious attack came on 25 September where sirens sounded across Tel Aviv. Shortly after, a surface-to-air missile was intercepted.
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Israel intercepts missile from Lebanon
Hezbollah claimed responsibility and said it was targeting the headquarters of Israel’s spy agency Mossad. Israeli data for 25 September shows an average of one alert every five minutes.
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The situation on the ground remains tense and the cost of an all-out war would be high for both Israel and Hezbollah.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Last year was the warmest on record, the first to breach a symbolic threshold, and brought with it deadly impacts like flooding and drought, scientists have said.
Two new datasets found 2024 was the first calendar year when average global temperatures exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – before humans started burning fossil fuels at scale.
What caused 2024 record heat – and is it here to stay?
Friends of the Earth called today’s findings from both the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change service and the Met Office “deeply disturbing”.
The “primary driver” of heat in the last two years was climate change from human activity, but the temporary El Nino weather phenomenon also contributed, they said.
The breach in 2024 does not mean the world has forever passed 1.5C of warming – as that would only be declared after several years of doing so, and warming may slightly ease this year as El Nino has faded.
But the world is “teetering on the edge” of doing so, Copernicus said.
Prof Piers Forster, chair of the UK’s Climate Change Committee, called it a “foretaste of life at 1.5C”.
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Dr Gabriel Pollen, Zambia’s national coordinator for disasters, said “no area of life and the economy is untouched” by the country’s worst drought in more than 100 years.
Six million people face starvation, critical hydropower has plummeted, blackouts are frequent, industry is “decimated”, and growth has halved, he said.
Paris goal ‘not obsolete’
Scientists were at pains to point out it is not too late to curb worse climate change, urging leaders to maintain and step up climate action.
Professor Forster said temporarily breaching 1.5C “does not mean the goal is obsolete”, but that we should “double down” on slashing greenhouse gas emissions and on adapting to a hotter world.
The Met Office said “every fraction of a degree” still makes a difference to the severity of extreme weather.
Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo added: “The future is in our hands: swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate”.
Climate action is ‘economic opportunity’
Copernicus found that global temperatures in 2024 averaged 15.10°C, the hottest in records going back to 1850, making it 1.60°C above the pre-industrial level during 1850-1900.
The Met Office’s data found 2024 was 1.53C above pre-industrial levels.
The figures are global averages, which smooth out extremes from around the world into one number. That is why it still might have felt cold in some parts of the world last year.
Greenpeace campaigner Philip Evans said as “the world’s most powerful climate denier” Donald Trump returns to the White House, others must “take up the mantle of global climate leadership”.
The UK’s climate minister Kerry McCarthy said the UK has been working with other countries to cut global emissions, as well as greening the economy at home.
“Not only is this crucial for our planet, it is the economic opportunity of the 21st century… tackling the climate crisis while creating new jobs, delivering energy security and attracting new investment into the UK.”
Photographs have captured the moments after a baby girl was born on a packed migrant dinghy heading for the Canary Islands.
The small boat was carrying 60 people and had embarked from Tan-Tan – a Moroccan province 135 nautical miles (250km) away.
One image shows the baby lying on her mother’s lap as other passengers help the pair.
The boat’s passengers – a total of 60 people, including 14 women and four children – were rescued by a Spanish coastguard ship.
Coastguard captain Domingo Trujillo said: “The baby was crying, which indicated to us that it was alive and there were no problems, and we asked the woman’s permission to undress her and clean her.
“The umbilical cord had already been cut by one of her fellow passengers. The only thing we did was to check the child, give her to her mother and wrap them up for the trip.”
The mother and baby were taken for medical checks and treated with antibiotics, medical authorities said.
Dr Maria Sabalich, an emergency coordinator of the Molina Orosa University Hospital in Lanzarote, said: “They are still in the hospital, but they are doing well.”
When they are discharged from hospital, the pair will be moved to a humanitarian centre for migrants, a government official said.
They will then most likely be relocated to a reception centre for mothers and children on another of the Canary Islands, they added.
Thousands of migrants board boats attempting to make the perilous journey from the African coast to the Spanish Canaries each year.
In 2024, a total of 9,757 people died on the route, according to Spanish migration charity Walking Borders.
Mr Trujillo said: “Almost every night we leave at dawn and arrive back late.
“This case is very positive, because it was with a newborn, but in all the services we do, even if we are tired, we know we are helping people in distress.”
A real-life drama is unfolding just outside Hollywood. Ferocious wildfires have ballooned at an “alarming speed”, in just a matter of hours. Why?
What caused the California wildfires?
There are currently three wildfires torching southern California. The causes of all three are still being investigated.
The majority (85%) of all forest fires across the United States are started by humans, either deliberately or accidentally, according to the US Forest Service.
But there is a difference between what ignites a wildfire and what allows it to spread.
However these fires were sparked, other factors have fuelled them, making them spread quickly and leaving people less time to prepare or flee.
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LA residents face ‘long and scary night ahead’
What are Santa Ana winds?
So-called Santa Ana winds are extreme, dry winds that are common in LA in colder winter months.
The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection warned strong Santa Ana winds and low humidity are whipping up “extreme wildfire risks”.
Winds have already topped 60mph and could reach 100mph in mountains and foothills – including in areas that have barely had any rain for months.
It has been too windy to launch firefighting aircraft, further hampering efforts to tackle the blazes.
These north-easterly winds blow from the interior of Southern California towards the coast, picking up speed as they squeeze through mountain ranges that border the urban area around the coast.
They blow in the opposite direction to the normal onshore flow that carries moist air from the Pacific Ocean into the area.
The lack of humidity in the air parches vegetation, making it more flammable once a fire is started.
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Wildfires spread as state of emergency declared
The ‘atmospheric blow-dryer’ effect
The winds create an “atmospheric blow-dryer” effect that will “dry things out even further”, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).
The longer the extreme wind persists, the drier the vegetation will become, he said.
“So some of the strongest winds will be at the beginning of the event, but some of the driest vegetation will actually come at the end, and so the reality is that there’s going to be a very long period of high fire risk.”
What role has climate change played?
California governor Gavin Newsom said fire season has become “year-round in the state of California” despite the state not “traditionally” seeing fires at this time of year – apparently alluding to the impact of climate change.
Scientists will need time to assess the role of climate change in these fires, which could range from drying out the land to actually decreasing wind speeds.
But broadly we know that climate change is increasing the hot, dry weather in the US that parches vegetation, thereby creating the fuel for wildfires – that’s according to scientists at World Weather Attribution.
But human activities, such as forest management and ignition sources, are also important factors that dictate how a fire spreads, WWA said.
Southern California has experienced a particularly hot summer, followed by almost no rain during what should be the wet season, said Professor Alex Hall, also from UCLA.
“And all of this comes on the heels of two very rainy years, which means there is plenty of fuel for potential wildfires.
“These intense winds have the potential to turn a small spark into a conflagration that eats up thousands of acres with alarming speed – a dynamic that is only intensifying with the warmer temperatures of a changing climate.”
The flames from a fire that broke out yesterday evening near a nature reserve in the inland foothills northeast of LA spread so quickly that staff at a care home had to push residents in wheelchairs and hospital beds down the street to a car park.