Israel and Hezbollah on brink of all-out war – the key moments that brought us here
An Israeli military chief has told his troops that airstrikes in Lebanon are preparing the way for a “possible” ground assault designed to “degrade” Hezbollah, bringing the region closer to all-out war.
While the Lebanese militant group, which is backed by Iran and an ally of Hamas, has been involved in a constant tit-for-tat with Israel since 7 October, the recent strikes in Lebanon have killed hundreds of people and caused tens of thousands to flee.
Lebanon’s health ministry said Israeli strikes on Wednesday had killed 51 people and injured more than 220.
Red dots indicate Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Source: Institute for the Study of War
Now, with a possible ground invasion looming, Sky News’ Data and Forensics team looks at the turning points in the last two months which have brought us to this point.
Missile strike on football field
The start of the current escalation began on 27 July, when a missile struck a football field in Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teenagers.
The missile strike hit a football field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Pic: AP
Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack, but analysis by Sky News’ Data and Forensics Unit found the group had been targeting the Ma’ale Golani military base, 2.4km (1.5 miles) away, on the same day.
The alleged launch site puts the football field squarely in the path of a rocket aimed at the military base, suggesting it may have overshot its target.
Hezbollah said it had targeted the base in response to Israeli attacks on southern villages in Lebanon.
Assassination campaign begins
In response to the deadly attack, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed heavy retaliation against Hezbollah which would come in the form of a months-long campaign of assassinations targeting Hezbollah’s senior leadership – which military analysts say is intended to sow chaos and confusion in the militant group’s ranks.
Israel’s first target was Fuad Shukr, the right-hand man to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. On the night of 30 July, three days after the strike at Majdal Shams, Israel struck a residential building in the heart of Beirut, killing Shukr.
Killing of Hamas leader
Hours later, an explosion in Iran’s capital Tehran blew up a room in a military-run guest house, killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Israel has not claimed or denied responsibility for the blast. Iran vowed to respond to this attack, but the retaliation never came.
Sky News’ defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke says the lack of response to Haniyeh’s death was “critical” in showing the limits of Iran’s willingness to retaliate against attacks on its allies.
Over the following weeks, Hezbollah increased its rate of attacks on Israel but held back from broader escalation as Israel’s assassination campaign continued.
On 20 August, Ibrahim Aqil, Hezbollah’s head of operations and commander of its elite Radwan forces, was killed in an Israeli strike.
Five days later, Israel targeted numerous locations across Lebanon in its biggest wave of strikes since the war began. Conflict-monitoring organisation ACLED recorded 74 individual attacks. The IDF said these strikes were intended to disrupt forthcoming Hezbollah attacks.
Exploding devices in Lebanon
But it wasn’t until 17 September that Israel appeared to really show its hand with a series of deadly exploding pagers and radio devices. Pagers exploded inside supermarkets and phone shops across Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon.
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Apparent explosion at Lebanon market
The attacks on 17 and 18 September killed at least 32 people and injured more than 3,000 others.
Hezbollah blamed Israel for the attacks but Israeli President Isaac Herzog said he “rejects” any connection to the operation. US government sources reportedly acknowledged Israel’s involvement in private.
Reports also suggested the timing of the attacks was not of Israel’s choosing, but that it felt compelled to act after Hezbollah grew suspicious of the devices.
Since then, Israel has reportedly moved troops from its elite 98th Division to the border with Lebanon.
Israel has also escalated its bombing of Lebanon, with NASA satellite data showing an increase in thermal anomalies in previous days, which is likely linked to the Israeli strikes.
Satellite data showing thermal anomalies in Lebanon between 19-25 September. Source: NASA FIRMS
On 19 September, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said it hit around 100 Hezbollah launch sites across southern Lebanon.
It’s also continued to target senior Hezbollah commanders. A strike in Beirut one day later killed top commander Ahmed Wahbi, while a strike on 23 September reportedly targeted Ali Karaki, commander of Hezbollah’s southern front.
“They’re preparing the battlefield… they’re preparing southern Lebanon for a ground invasion,” says Prof Clarke.
Hezbollah has estimated 150,000 rockets
Preparing the ground means reducing Hezbollah’s ability to use its ultimate weapon – the estimated 150,000 rockets at its disposal.
That arsenal potentially gives them the ability to launch thousands of rockets per hour over several days, striking deep into Israel and overwhelming its air defences.
“If Israel is going to move in on the ground against Hezbollah, they want to do all they can to make it very difficult for Hezbollah to do that,” Prof Clarke says.
Israel’s defences have been tested in recent days, with its system of missile alerts recording a dramatic rise in attacks.
Hezbollah’s most audacious attack came on 25 September where sirens sounded across Tel Aviv. Shortly after, a surface-to-air missile was intercepted.
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Israel intercepts missile from Lebanon
Hezbollah claimed responsibility and said it was targeting the headquarters of Israel’s spy agency Mossad. Israeli data for 25 September shows an average of one alert every five minutes.
The situation on the ground remains tense and the cost of an all-out war would be high for both Israel and Hezbollah.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
World
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s UN speech had passion and props – but no clear plan to end war
Benjamin Netanyahu loves the platform of the United Nations but the UN doesn’t love him.
As he entered, hundreds of diplomats left. He delivered his speech to a chamber more than half empty.
Mr Netanyahu claimed he was not initially going to attend, but was compelled to by the “lies and slanders” he heard from other leaders.
He used the moment to remind the world of 7 October and the ongoing fate of hostages being held inside Gaza.
He justified Israel’s war, claiming without evidence that it is the most moral campaign in history. Israel critics, of which there are many, accuse the country of genocide.
Israel-Hezbollah latest: Follow live updates here
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Netanyahu slams Israel’s critics in UN speech
He pointed the finger at the “goons” in Iran as he has done year after year and described the Iranian axis across Iraq, Syria and Lebanon as a curse.
He lambasted the International Criminal Court for seeking arrest warrants against him and defence minister Yoav Gallant.
He invoked biblical references to advocate modern-day peace but insisted his country must keep fighting multiple wars; there was not even a passing glance to the US-French proposal for a truce in Lebanon.
Mr Netanyahu again dedicated time to speak about the prospect of normalisation with Saudi Arabia, something he is desperate for, but the Kingdom’s Crown Prince isn’t.
Riyadh won’t make peace with Israel without a path to an independent Palestinian state, and that is something Mr Netanyahu isn’t willing to give.
Mr Netanyahu does these moments well. He is a master of the media and revels in the moment.
In the end though, we heard nothing new.
It was passionate and it was angry. It had maps as props and a crowd flown in to cheer along.
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But there was no explanation for how the war in Gaza will end, no plan for the ‘day after’ and no idea for “deradicalisation”.
He said Israel must “defeat” Hezbollah but gave no hint of a timeline and no clue what might come next.
It was a speech that will go down well with many here in Israel, their leader defending their country on the world stage.
But Israelis are weary after 12 months of war and many will come away wondering how many more months of conflict lie ahead.
After a week of airstrikes in the neighbourhood of Dahieh, the shock of an explosion is rarely followed by surprise.
When we arrived in this densely populated part of southern Beirut, the street was filled with glass and rubble and weary-looking faces. This is the fourth time in a week that this area has been hit.
Behind a cordon, we could see a damaged apartment block just down the street. Below, a popular juice shop called “Tasty Bees” had survived unscathed.
Israel-Hezbollah latest: Follow live updates here
A detachment of Lebanese troops stood guard at the scene, but we knew they were not in charge in this part of the city.
Dahieh is run by the political and military group Hezbollah and we were invited by their security personnel to take a closer look at the site.
Israel said its airstrike targeted a Hezbollah commander. Pic: AP
The fourth floor was badly damaged by a series of precision-guided missiles.
The outer walls of various apartments had been removed, revealing mattresses, curtains and colourful chandeliers.
The Israeli military claims to have killed a Hezbollah commander called Mohammed Surur in the strike.
The country’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu later said that he had authorised it and described Surur as the leader of the Iran-backed group’s unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) or drone division.
Surur’s death has not been confirmed by Hezbollah – but it certainly has not intimidated some of the group’s supporters.
“I’d die for Hezbollah,” shouted one man and he brushed the rubble off the top of his battered-looking car.
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Our tour came as the international community launched an urgent attempt for a temporary truce in a conflict that has killed more than 1,500 this year. But prospects for a ceasefire were quickly blown away by the blast.
At least two have died, with 15 injured in this attack.
Israeli airstrikes have hit several areas of southern Lebanon including Saksakiyeh. Pic: Reuters
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Israeli army prepares for war
The mayor of the local suburb Atef Mansour gave voice to the feeling shared by many here.
“What happened is an ongoing crime committed by the Israeli enemy, and we witness this scene every day, day after day in a densely populated neighbourhood.”
Yet Hezbollah has continued its military operations, sending 45 rockets into northern Israel. Such attacks invite an inevitable response.
As far as our minders in Dahieh were concerned, the purpose of our visit was clear – to communicate the impact on civilians of such strikes.
Yet we all know the next assault will come soon.
World
Airstrike on Lebanon kills six children as three families devastated – with nothing left of home they were sheltering in
There seemed little sign of any let-up in the Israeli bombardment of Lebanon with a spray of early morning strikes in the south. There were others in the eastern Bekaa Valley and northeast of the capital, Beirut.
While we were in the hills of Mount Lebanon region in the southwest of the country, there were regular airstrikes landing south of us. Israeli drones circled above and we heard sonic booms as Israeli jets broke the sound barrier.
“These are tactics to terrorise us,” one resident in the village of Joun told us.
Weeping women and Al Risala scouts gathered with crowds of other Joun villagers for the funeral of a six-year-old boy, his mother and his father.
The family was one of three inside a home high above the village when the Israeli bomb hit.
There’s nothing left of the home now.
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The coffin of a young boy is carried
The father, Khodor Raad, is well-known locally. He ran a taxi service and worked as a welder but was also involved in Hezbollah’s social welfare programmes, according to the village’s residents.
“He was not a fighter,” one Hezbollah representative told us. “The area where he lived would not allow weapons there, for sure.”
The villagers we spoke to told us Khodor’s family had taken in two other families who had been displaced by the recent Israeli bombardment.
One family of three children and their mother was from Syria while the second family, a mother and her two children, had fled the onslaught in the south just a day earlier.
Khodor was the senior adult male in the house. The other males were his young son, Hassan, and two elder brothers, one a teenager.
The airstrike just after 10.30am on Wednesday wiped out the bulk of three families, killing six children, three mothers and the patriarch Khodor.
Hassan’s brothers somehow escaped. The elder of the two, 21-year-old Ahmad, had to be pulled out of the rubble with head wounds and a lacerated hand. Yousuf, 15, seems to have escaped unscathed.
This is the first time Mount Lebanon Governorate has been hit in nearly a year of increasingly deadly exchanges between Israel and Lebanon. During this time (according to the non-profit organisation ACLED) Israel has fired nearly five times as many missiles into Lebanon as Hezbollah has launched into Israel.
But the exchanges until a week ago were mainly confined to the border region, although they’d caused a serious amount of displacement in both Israel and Lebanon. About 60,000 Israelis have fled their homes and 120,000 families have had to abandon their houses on the Lebanese side.
This week though, the massive spike in Israeli airstrikes – more than a thousand in a single day on Monday – plus the Israeli authorities’ warnings to evacuate – prompted another huge wave of people to up and move to try to escape the bombings.
The Lebanese government has estimated the displacement is likely to reach half a million with a rapidly growing humanitarian crisis.
The funerals in Joun have stunned the small community who have opened their homes to thousands of displaced people.
“Please treat our displaced brothers and sisters with courtesy and kindness,” the village representative told the funeral crowds.
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The body of the young boy Hassan at the funeral
Six-year-old Hassan’s school friends and fellow scouts were among the funeral mourners and his scout leader, who was one of the pallbearers, openly sobbed.
“We are civilians,” said a family relative called Mostafa Issa – despite the presence of young soldiers clad in military-style camouflage outfits.
At the head of the pallbearers was Hassan’s elder brother, Ahmad, also in uniform – a fact which officials attempted to explain away by saying “he’d just put on the uniform for the funeral”.
“The Israelis are claiming they are targeting Hezbollah weapons,” Mostafa Issa told us. “But this family took in two other displaced families! Why would they have weapons? They are civilians and the Israelis are hitting civilians.”
He went on: “These crimes should stop wherever they are being carried out – in Lebanon, Gaza and Syria.”
The crushed family home is a pile of rubble now. Vehicles parked around it, including their neighbours’, are mangled.
School books can be seen half buried in the broken stones, as well as a child’s pair of trousers.
Hussein told Sky News: ‘We are all willing to die’
“We are prepared to die,” said one young man called Hussein. “We are not the terrorists! It is the one who is bombing us and our homes who is the terrorist. We are all prepared to die for humanity.”
He went on, his face quivering with emotion: “40,000 people have been killed in Gaza. Most of them are women and children. And yet it is us who are called the terrorists.”
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Hezbollah is a proscribed terror outfit in Israel, the USA and the UK, among other nations. And it has a fierce control over parts of the country, particularly the south.
It has a powerful weapons cache, including long-range missiles, has tens of thousands of fighters and enjoys financial and intelligence support from Iran.
But the militant group also has a political wing with MPs in parliament and an active social welfare programme running schools, hospitals and aid groups which further cements its grip on parts of the population.
Additional reporting by: camera Jake Britton, specialist producer Chris Cunningham, and Lebanon producers Jihad Jineid, Sami Zein and Hwaida Saad
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