An Israeli military chief has told his troops that airstrikes in Lebanon are preparing the way for a “possible” ground assault designed to “degrade” Hezbollah, bringing the region closer to all-out war.
While the Lebanese militant group, which is backed by Iran and an ally of Hamas, has been involved in a constant tit-for-tat with Israel since 7 October, the recent strikes in Lebanon have killed hundreds of people and caused tens of thousands to flee.
Lebanon’s health ministry said Israeli strikes on Wednesday had killed 51 people and injured more than 220.
Image: Red dots indicate Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Source: Institute for the Study of War
Now, with a possible ground invasion looming, Sky News’ Data and Forensics team looks at the turning points in the last two months which have brought us to this point.
Missile strike on football field
The start of the current escalation began on 27 July, when a missile struck a football field in Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teenagers.
Image: The missile strike hit a football field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Pic: AP
Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack, but analysis by Sky News’ Data and Forensics Unit found the group had been targeting the Ma’ale Golani military base, 2.4km (1.5 miles) away, on the same day.
The alleged launch site puts the football field squarely in the path of a rocket aimed at the military base, suggesting it may have overshot its target.
Hezbollah said it had targeted the base in response to Israeli attacks on southern villages in Lebanon.
Assassination campaign begins
In response to the deadly attack, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed heavy retaliation against Hezbollah which would come in the form of a months-long campaign of assassinations targeting Hezbollah’s senior leadership – which military analysts say is intended to sow chaos and confusion in the militant group’s ranks.
Israel’s first target was Fuad Shukr, the right-hand man to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. On the night of 30 July, three days after the strike at Majdal Shams, Israel struck a residential building in the heart of Beirut, killing Shukr.
Killing of Hamas leader
Hours later, an explosion in Iran’s capital Tehran blew up a room in a military-run guest house, killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Israel has not claimed or denied responsibility for the blast. Iran vowed to respond to this attack, but the retaliation never came.
Sky News’ defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke says the lack of response to Haniyeh’s death was “critical” in showing the limits of Iran’s willingness to retaliate against attacks on its allies.
Over the following weeks, Hezbollah increased its rate of attacks on Israel but held back from broader escalation as Israel’s assassination campaign continued.
On 20 August, Ibrahim Aqil, Hezbollah’s head of operations and commander of its elite Radwan forces, was killed in an Israeli strike.
Five days later, Israel targeted numerous locations across Lebanon in its biggest wave of strikes since the war began. Conflict-monitoring organisation ACLED recorded 74 individual attacks. The IDF said these strikes were intended to disrupt forthcoming Hezbollah attacks.
Exploding devices in Lebanon
But it wasn’t until 17 September that Israel appeared to really show its hand with a series of deadly exploding pagers and radio devices. Pagers exploded inside supermarkets and phone shops across Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon.
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Apparent explosion at Lebanon market
The attacks on 17 and 18 September killed at least 32 people and injured more than 3,000 others.
Hezbollah blamed Israel for the attacks but Israeli President Isaac Herzog said he “rejects” any connection to the operation. US government sources reportedly acknowledged Israel’s involvement in private.
Reports also suggested the timing of the attacks was not of Israel’s choosing, but that it felt compelled to act after Hezbollah grew suspicious of the devices.
Since then, Israel has reportedly moved troops from its elite 98th Division to the border with Lebanon.
Israel has also escalated its bombing of Lebanon, with NASA satellite data showing an increase in thermal anomalies in previous days, which is likely linked to the Israeli strikes.
Image: Satellite data showing thermal anomalies in Lebanon between 19-25 September. Source: NASA FIRMS
On 19 September, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said it hit around 100 Hezbollah launch sites across southern Lebanon.
It’s also continued to target senior Hezbollah commanders. A strike in Beirut one day later killed top commander Ahmed Wahbi, while a strike on 23 September reportedly targeted Ali Karaki, commander of Hezbollah’s southern front.
“They’re preparing the battlefield… they’re preparing southern Lebanon for a ground invasion,” says Prof Clarke.
Hezbollah has estimated 150,000 rockets
Preparing the ground means reducing Hezbollah’s ability to use its ultimate weapon – the estimated 150,000 rockets at its disposal.
That arsenal potentially gives them the ability to launch thousands of rockets per hour over several days, striking deep into Israel and overwhelming its air defences.
“If Israel is going to move in on the ground against Hezbollah, they want to do all they can to make it very difficult for Hezbollah to do that,” Prof Clarke says.
Israel’s defences have been tested in recent days, with its system of missile alerts recording a dramatic rise in attacks.
Hezbollah’s most audacious attack came on 25 September where sirens sounded across Tel Aviv. Shortly after, a surface-to-air missile was intercepted.
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Israel intercepts missile from Lebanon
Hezbollah claimed responsibility and said it was targeting the headquarters of Israel’s spy agency Mossad. Israeli data for 25 September shows an average of one alert every five minutes.
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The situation on the ground remains tense and the cost of an all-out war would be high for both Israel and Hezbollah.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Israel has approved a plan to capture all of the Gaza Strip and remain there for an unspecified length of time, Israeli officials say.
According to Reuters, the plan includes distributing aid, though supplies will not be let in yet.
The Israeli official told the agency that the newly approved offensive plan would move Gaza’s civilian population southward and keep humanitarian aid from falling into Hamas’s hands.
On Sunday, the United Nations rejected what it said was a new plan for aid to be distributed in what it described as Israeli hubs.
Israeli cabinet ministers approved plans for the new offensive on Monday morning, hours after it was announced that tens of thousands of reserve soldiers are being called up.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has so far failed to achieve his goal of destroying Hamas or returning all the hostages, despite more than a year of brutal war in Gaza.
Image: Palestinian children struggle to get donated food at a community kitchen in Khan Younis, Gaza. Pic: AP
Officials say the plan will help with these war aims but it would also push hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to southern Gaza, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis.
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They said the plan included the “capturing of the strip and the holding of territories”.
It would also try to prevent Hamas from distributing humanitarian aid, which Israel says strengthens the group’s rule in Gaza.
The UN rejected the plan, saying it would leave large parts of the population, including the most vulnerable, without supplies.
It said it “appears designed to reinforce control over life-sustaining items as a pressure tactic – as part of a military strategy”.
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More than 52,000 Palestinians have been killed since the IDF launched its ground offensive in the densely-populated territory, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.
It followed the deadly Hamas attacks on Israel, which killed 1,200 people and saw around 250 people taken hostage.
A fragile ceasefire that saw a pause in the fighting and the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners collapsed earlier this year.
Yemen’s Houthi rebel group has said 15 people have been injured in “US-British” airstrikes in and around the capital Sanaa.
Most of those hurt were from the Shuub district, near the centre of the city, a statement from the health ministry said.
Another person was injured on the main airport road, the statement added.
It comes after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against the Houthis and their Iranian “masters” following a missile attack by the group on Israel’s main international airport on Sunday morning.
It remains unclear whether the UK took part in the latest strikes and any role it may have played.
On 29 April, UK forces, the British government said, took part in a joint strike on “a Houthi military target in Yemen”.
“Careful intelligence analysis identified a cluster of buildings, used by the Houthis to manufacture drones of the type used to attack ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, located some fifteen miles south of Sanaa,” the British Ministry of Defence said in a previous statement.
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On Sunday, the militant group fired a missile at the Ben Gurion Airport, sparking panic among passengers in the terminal building.
The missile impact left a plume of smoke and briefly caused flights to be halted.
Four people were said to be injured, according to the country’s paramedic service.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate against the Houthis and their Iranian “masters” after the group launched a missile attack on the country’s main international airport.
A missile fired by the group from Yemen landed near Ben Gurion Airport, causing panic among passengers in the terminal building.
“Attacks by the Houthis emanate from Iran,” Mr Netanyahu wrote on X. “Israel will respond to the Houthi attack against our main airport AND, at a time and place of our choosing, to their Iranian terror masters.”
Image: Israeli police officers investigate the missile crater. Pic: Reuters
The missile impact left a plume of smoke and briefly halted flights and commuter traffic at the airport. Some international carriers have cancelled flights to and from Tel Aviv for several days.
Four people were lightly wounded, paramedic service Magen David Adom said.
Air raid sirens went off across Israel and footage showed passengers yelling and rushing for cover.
The attack came hours before senior Israeli cabinet ministers were set to vote on whether to intensify the country’s military operations in the Gaza Strip, and as the army began calling up thousands of reserves in anticipation of a wider operation in the enclave.
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Houthi military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Saree said the group fired a hypersonic ballistic missile at the airport.
Iran’s defence minister later told a state TV broadcaster that if the country was attacked by the US or Israel, it would target their bases, interests and forces where necessary.
Israel’s military said several attempts to intercept the missile were unsuccessful.
Air, road and rail traffic were halted after the attack, police said, though it resumed around an hour later.
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Yemen’s Houthis have been firing missiles at Israel since its war with Hamas in Gaza began on 7 October 2023, and while most have been intercepted, some have penetrated the country’s missile defence systems and caused damage.
Israel has previously struck the group in Yemen in retaliation and the US and UK have also launched strikes after the Houthis began attacking international shipping, saying it was in solidarity with Palestinians over Israel’s war with Hamas.