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An Israeli military chief has told his troops that airstrikes in Lebanon are preparing the way for a “possible” ground assault designed to “degrade” Hezbollah, bringing the region closer to all-out war.

While the Lebanese militant group, which is backed by Iran and an ally of Hamas, has been involved in a constant tit-for-tat with Israel since 7 October, the recent strikes in Lebanon have killed hundreds of people and caused tens of thousands to flee.

Lebanon’s health ministry said Israeli strikes on Wednesday had killed 51 people and injured more than 220.

Red dots indicate Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Source: Institute for the Study of War
Image:
Red dots indicate Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Source: Institute for the Study of War

Now, with a possible ground invasion looming, Sky News’ Data and Forensics team looks at the turning points in the last two months which have brought us to this point.

Missile strike on football field

The start of the current escalation began on 27 July, when a missile struck a football field in Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teenagers.

Residents rush to help injured children moments after a rocket attack hit a soccer field in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, Saturday, July 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Shams)
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The missile strike hit a football field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Pic: AP

Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack, but analysis by Sky News’ Data and Forensics Unit found the group had been targeting the Ma’ale Golani military base, 2.4km (1.5 miles) away, on the same day.

The alleged launch site puts the football field squarely in the path of a rocket aimed at the military base, suggesting it may have overshot its target.

Hezbollah said it had targeted the base in response to Israeli attacks on southern villages in Lebanon.

Assassination campaign begins

In response to the deadly attack, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed heavy retaliation against Hezbollah which would come in the form of a months-long campaign of assassinations targeting Hezbollah’s senior leadership – which military analysts say is intended to sow chaos and confusion in the militant group’s ranks.

Israel’s first target was Fuad Shukr, the right-hand man to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. On the night of 30 July, three days after the strike at Majdal Shams, Israel struck a residential building in the heart of Beirut, killing Shukr.

Killing of Hamas leader

Hours later, an explosion in Iran’s capital Tehran blew up a room in a military-run guest house, killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Israel has not claimed or denied responsibility for the blast. Iran vowed to respond to this attack, but the retaliation never came.

Sky News’ defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke says the lack of response to Haniyeh’s death was “critical” in showing the limits of Iran’s willingness to retaliate against attacks on its allies.

Over the following weeks, Hezbollah increased its rate of attacks on Israel but held back from broader escalation as Israel’s assassination campaign continued.

On 20 August, Ibrahim Aqil, Hezbollah’s head of operations and commander of its elite Radwan forces, was killed in an Israeli strike.

Five days later, Israel targeted numerous locations across Lebanon in its biggest wave of strikes since the war began. Conflict-monitoring organisation ACLED recorded 74 individual attacks. The IDF said these strikes were intended to disrupt forthcoming Hezbollah attacks.

Exploding devices in Lebanon

But it wasn’t until 17 September that Israel appeared to really show its hand with a series of deadly exploding pagers and radio devices. Pagers exploded inside supermarkets and phone shops across Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon.

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Apparent explosion at Lebanon market

The attacks on 17 and 18 September killed at least 32 people and injured more than 3,000 others.

Hezbollah blamed Israel for the attacks but Israeli President Isaac Herzog said he “rejects” any connection to the operation. US government sources reportedly acknowledged Israel’s involvement in private.

Reports also suggested the timing of the attacks was not of Israel’s choosing, but that it felt compelled to act after Hezbollah grew suspicious of the devices.

Since then, Israel has reportedly moved troops from its elite 98th Division to the border with Lebanon.

Israel has also escalated its bombing of Lebanon, with NASA satellite data showing an increase in thermal anomalies in previous days, which is likely linked to the Israeli strikes.

Satellite data showing thermal anomalies in Lebanon, 19-25 September. Source: NASA FIRMS
Image:
Satellite data showing thermal anomalies in Lebanon between 19-25 September. Source: NASA FIRMS

On 19 September, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said it hit around 100 Hezbollah launch sites across southern Lebanon.

It’s also continued to target senior Hezbollah commanders. A strike in Beirut one day later killed top commander Ahmed Wahbi, while a strike on 23 September reportedly targeted Ali Karaki, commander of Hezbollah’s southern front.

“They’re preparing the battlefield… they’re preparing southern Lebanon for a ground invasion,” says Prof Clarke.

Hezbollah has estimated 150,000 rockets

Preparing the ground means reducing Hezbollah’s ability to use its ultimate weapon – the estimated 150,000 rockets at its disposal.

That arsenal potentially gives them the ability to launch thousands of rockets per hour over several days, striking deep into Israel and overwhelming its air defences.

“If Israel is going to move in on the ground against Hezbollah, they want to do all they can to make it very difficult for Hezbollah to do that,” Prof Clarke says.

Israel’s defences have been tested in recent days, with its system of missile alerts recording a dramatic rise in attacks.

Hezbollah’s most audacious attack came on 25 September where sirens sounded across Tel Aviv. Shortly after, a surface-to-air missile was intercepted.

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Israel intercepts missile from Lebanon

Hezbollah claimed responsibility and said it was targeting the headquarters of Israel’s spy agency Mossad. Israeli data for 25 September shows an average of one alert every five minutes.

The situation on the ground remains tense and the cost of an all-out war would be high for both Israel and Hezbollah.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Arrest warrants issued for Israeli PM Netanyahu and former defence secretary Gallant and senior Hamas commander over alleged war crimes

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Arrest warrants issued for Israeli PM Netanyahu and former defence secretary Gallant and senior Hamas commander over alleged war crimes

Arrest warrants have been issued for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former defence secretary Yoav Gallant and a senior Hamas commander by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

The warrants against the senior Israeli figures are for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity related to the war in Gaza that Israel launched following the 7 October attacks by Hamas.

The prime minister’s office said the warrants against him and Gallant were “anti-semitic” and said Israel “rejects with disgust the absurd and false actions”.

Another warrant was issued for the arrest of Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al Masri for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Al Masri, also known as Mohammed Deif, was the mastermind behind the 7 October attacks. It is unclear if he is still alive, following an airstrike that Israel claimed killed him earlier this year.

Neither Israel nor the US are members of the ICC. Israel has rejected the court’s jurisdiction and denies committing war crimes in Gaza.

US President Joe Biden described the warrants against Israeli leaders as “outrageous”, adding “whatever the ICC might imply, there is no equivalence – none – between Israel and Hamas”.

Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett said the warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant were a “mark of shame” for the ICC.

The court originally said it was seeking arrest warrants for the three men in May for the alleged crimes and today announced that it had rejected challenges by Israel and issued warrants of arrest.

The new UK Labour government said in the summer it would not oppose the ICC’s right to issue the warrants.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the UN general assembly. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the UN general assembly. Pic: Reuters

Warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant

In its update, the ICC said it found “reasonable grounds to believe” that Netanyahu and Gallant “bear criminal responsibility” for alleged crimes.

These, the court said, include “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts”.

Netanyahu previously spoke of his “disgust” at the suggestion the ICC would seek an arrest warrant for him.

The Board of Deputies of British Jews said the ICC’s decision sent a “terrible message”.

“The court has minimised how Hamas fights – deliberately from within civilian infrastructure and cruelly using Palestinian civilians as human shields, tragically leading to many casualties,” the board said.

“Democratic governments, and people around the world, should consider how they would have responded to an October 7th perpetrated against their country, involving mass murder, rape, and hostage-taking.

“We should all be focused on defeating the Hamas terrorists, liberating the hostages, ensuring that civilians in Gaza receive all necessary aid and working towards a sustainable peace for Israelis and Palestinians to prevent these horrible conflicts in the future.

“The decision of the ICC is counter-productive in all these respects.”

Read more:
Hamas ready to secure ceasefire ‘immediately’
Netanyahu and Trump ‘see eye to eye’ on Iran

This will never leave Netanyahu

Three arrest warrants have been issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) but the two most significant are those against Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant.

The court in their statement said that they have reasonable grounds to believe that those two men, have been carrying out the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution and other inhumane acts.

Ever since the arrest warrants were first sought there have been a lot of legal challenges. But the court has rejected all that and has now issued these arrest warrants.

So what does it mean? Well, practically, it would mean that Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant couldn’t travel to any state that is a signatory of the ICC – about 120 countries around the world, including the UK and many European countries.

Were Netanyahu to travel to any of those countries, he should be arrested by the police forces of those countries. And it’ll be very interesting to see what Sir Keir Starmer’s reaction is to this.

But the US, Israel’s closest ally, is not a signatory of the ICC. I think Netanyahu will have support on the other side of the Atlantic.

Also, these ICC arrest warrants don’t always get carried out. We saw President Vladimir Putin, who had an arrest warrant issued for him after the invasion of Ukraine, travel to Mongolia a couple of months ago and nothing was done about that.

But in terms of the reputations of Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, in terms of that legacy, they are now wanted suspects, wanted to be put on trial for war crimes. And it is a label that will never leave them.

File image made by video and released by the militant group Hamas on Aug. 26, 2005,  shows a man, identified as fugitive bombmaker Mohammed Deif. Pic: AP
Image:
A video released by Hamas in 2005 shows a man identified as Mohammed Deif. Pic: AP

Warrant for Hamas leader

The ICC also said it has issued an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Al Masri, saying it has “reasonable grounds to believe” that he is responsible for crimes against humanity including murder, extermination, torture, rape, as well as war crimes including taking hostages.

Discussing the 7 October attacks, the court said: “In light of the coordinated killings of members of civilians at several separate locations, the Chamber also found that the conduct took place as part of a mass killing of members of the civilian population, and it therefore concluded that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the crime against humanity of extermination was committed.”

In its statement, the ICC said the prosecution was not in a position to determine whether Al Masri is dead or alive, so was issuing the arrest warrant.

The court previously said it was seeking an arrest warrant for Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas who was subsequently killed in July.

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UK refuses to say if it would arrest Netanyahu after ICC warrant

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UK refuses to say if it would arrest Netanyahu after ICC warrant

The home secretary has refused to say if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would be arrested if he landed on British soil after an international arrest warrant was issued for him.

On Thursday, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Israeli defence secretary Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity related to the war in Gaza.

But Yvette Cooper said the ICC, which the UK is a member of, is independent and while the government respects that, it “wouldn’t be appropriate for me to comment” on the processes involved.

She told Sky News: “We’ve always respected the importance of international law, but in the majority of the cases that they pursue, they don’t become part of the British legal process.

“What I can say is that obviously, the UK government’s position remains that we believe the focus should be on getting a ceasefire in Gaza.”

However, Emily Thornberry, Labour chair of the foreign affairs committee in parliament, told Sky News: “If Netanyahu comes to Britain, our obligation under the Rome Convention would be to arrest him under the warrant from the ICC.

“Not really a question of should, we are required to because we are members of the ICC.”

The government said after winning July’s election it would not oppose the ICC’s right to issue the warrants.

An ICC arrest warrant was also issued for Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al Masri, the mastermind behind the 7 October attacks in Israel, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Israel claims Al Masri was killed earlier this year but the ICC said that has not been confirmed, so it was issuing the arrest warrant.

Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant (right). File pic: Reuters
Image:
Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant (right) have arrest warrants against them. File pic: Reuters

Netanyahu’s office said the warrants against him and Gallant were “anti-semitic” and said Israel “rejects with disgust the absurd and false actions”.

Neither Israel nor the US are members of the ICC. Israel has rejected the court’s jurisdiction and denies committing war crimes in Gaza.

US President Joe Biden described the warrants against Israeli leaders as “outrageous”, adding: “Whatever the ICC might imply, there is no equivalence – none – between Israel and Hamas.”

Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett said the warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant were a “mark of shame” for the ICC.

The Board of Deputies of British Jews said the ICC’s decision sent a “terrible message”.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Friday he would invite Netanyahu to visit Hungary and he would guarantee the arrest warrant would “not be observed”.

However, both France and Italy signalled they would arrest Netanyahu if he came to their countries.

Read more:
What satellite images tell us about North Gaza

Hamas ready for Gaza ceasefire ‘immediately’

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Why have arrest warrants been issued?

The ICC originally said it was seeking arrest warrants for the three men in May for the alleged crimes and on Thursday announced that it had rejected challenges by Israel and issued warrants of arrest.

In its update, the ICC said it found “reasonable grounds to believe” that Netanyahu and Gallant “bear criminal responsibility” for alleged crimes.

These, the court said, include “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts”.

It is the first time a sitting leader of a major Western ally has been accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity by a global court of justice.

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Another teenager dies after methanol poisonings in Laos – bringing total killed to six

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Another teenager dies after methanol poisonings in Laos - bringing total killed to six

A second Australian teenager has died after being poisoned with methanol in Laos, bringing the number of people killed to six.

Holly Bowles, 19, has died, according to the Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Senator Penny Wong, who said: “All Australians will be heartbroken by the tragic passing of Holly Bowles. I offer my deepest sympathies to her family and friends.”

Bianca Jones, who according to Australian authorities was Ms Bowles’s best friend, died earlier this week after both 19-year-olds fell ill on 13 November while staying in southeast Asian country.

They are two of six people who are believed to have died after drinking methanol-laced vodka in the tourist hotspot.

The death of British woman Simone White, 28, from Orpington, Kent, was announced on Thursday. She fell ill after reportedly drinking “free shots” from a local bar in Vang Vieng – a resort popular with backpackers.

Two Danish women in their 20s and a 56-year-old US citizen also died as a result of the mass poisoning.

Methanol, which is sometimes added to mixed drinks as a cheaper alternative to alcohol, but can cause severe poisoning or death.

The manager and owner of the hostel where the two Australians, both from Melbourne, were staying, has been detained, according to an officer at Vang Vieng’s Tourism Police office who refused to give his name.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

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