A surge in demand for artificial intelligence-focused semiconductors and AI-enabled smartphones and laptops could lead to the next global chip shortage, according to a report released Wednesday by consultancy Bain & Company.
The last major semiconductor shortage happened during the Covid-19 pandemic amid supply chain disruption and a rise in demand for consumer electronics as people were forced to stay and work at home.
Technology giants have been snapping up graphics processing units, or GPUs, mainly from Nvidia. These GPUs which are housed in data centers are critical for the training of huge AI models which underpin applications like OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
Meanwhile, companies like Qualcomm are designing chips that go into smartphones and personal computers and allow those devices to run AI applications locally rather than via an internet connection in the cloud. These are often referred to as AI-enabled devices and companies from Samsung to Microsoft have released such products.
Bain said demand for GPUs and AI consumer electronics could be the cause of a chip shortage.
“Surging demand for graphics processing units (GPUs) has caused shortages in specific elements of the semiconductor value chain,” Anne Hoecker, head of the technology practice in the Americas at Bain & Company, told CNBC by email.
“If we combine the growth in demand for GPUs alongside a wave of AI-enabled devices, which could accelerate PC product refresh cycles, there could be more widespread constraints on semiconductor supply.”
However, it’s unclear at this point how much demand such AI-enabled gadgets will have, given what appears to be a cautious approach to them from consumers so far.
Bain & Company noted that the semiconductor supply chain is “incredibly complex, and a demand increase of about 20% or more has a high likelihood of upsetting the equilibrium and causing a chip shortage.”
“The AI explosion across the confluence of the large end markets could easily surpass that threshold, creating vulnerable chokepoints throughout the supply chain,” the report added.
The semiconductor supply chain is spread across multiple companies. For example, while Nvidia might design its GPUs, they are made by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, in Taiwan. TSMC relies on chipmaking tools from countries around the world, such as the Netherlands. Furthermore, the most cutting-edge chips can only be made at a large scale by TSMC and Samsung Electronics.
Geopolitics could also be a factor prompting a chip shortage. Semiconductors are seen by governments around the world as strategic technology. The U.S. has been on a campaign, via export restrictions and other sanctions, of trying to restrict China’s access to the most advanced chips. Meanwhile, Washington has sought to shore up its own domestic capacity to produce semiconductors.
“Geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions, and multinational tech companies’ decoupling of their supply chains from China continue to pose serious risks to semiconductor supply. Delays in factory construction, materials shortages, and other unpredictable factors could also create pinch points,” Bain & Company said.
US President Joe Biden, left, and Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, speak on the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, in the Cross Hall of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2025. Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire deal, bringing at least a temporary halt to the war in Gaza that has killed tens of thousands of people in the last 15 months and touched off broader turmoil across the Middle East.
Aaron Schwartz | Sipa | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The Biden administration on Thursday announced an executive order on cybersecurity that imposes new standards for companies selling to the U.S. government and calls for greater disclosure from software providers.
The White House is looking to put in place new rules “to strengthen America’s digital foundations,” Anne Neuberger, deputy national security advisor for cybersecurity and emerging technology, said in a briefing with reporters on Wednesday.
Cyberattacks have caused an increasing number of disruptions inside federal agencies and companies in recent years.
Attackers have pulled off ransomware attacks at Change Healthcare, the operator of the Colonial Pipeline and the Ascension health care system. And Microsoft said in 2023 that Chinese attackers had broken into U.S. government officials’ email accounts, prompting a critical federal report and a series of changes at the software maker.
Companies selling software to the U.S. government will have to demonstrate that their development practices are secure, according to a statement. There will be “evidence that we post on a government website for all software users to benefit from,” Neuberger said.
The General Services Administration will have to make policy that makes cloud providers provide information to clients on how to operate securely.
Companies selling products and services to the U.S. government must adhere to a new set of security practices as a result of the executive order.
Last week the White House announced the U.S. Cyber Trust Mark label to help consumers evaluate internet-connected devices. The executive order states that the U.S. government will only purchase such products if they carry the label, starting in 2027.
The order also directs the National Institute for Standards and Technology to come up with guidance for handling software updates. In late 2020, hackers gained access to Microsoft and U.S. Defense Department systems by targeting updates to SolarWinds‘ Orion software.
It’s not clear if President-elect Donald Trump’s new administration will uphold the executive order. Biden’s cybersecurity officials have not met with those who will take up the work for Trump.
“We haven’t discussed, but we are very happy to, as soon as the incoming cyber team is named, of course, have any discussions during this final transition period,” Neuberger said.
A logo of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is seen during the TSMC global RnD Center opening ceremony in Hsinchu on July 28, 2023. (Photo by Amber Wang / AFP)
Here are TSMC’s fourth-quarter results versus LSEG consensus estimates:
Net revenue: 868.46 billion New Taiwan dollars ($26.36 billion), vs. NT$850.08 billion expected
Net income: NT$374.68 billion, vs. NT$366.61 billion expected
TSMC profit rose 57% from a year earlier to a record high, while revenue jumped 38.8%. The firm had forecast fourth-quarter revenue between $26.1 billion and $26.9 billion.
As the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer TSMC produces advanced processors for clients such as Nvidia and Apple and has benefited from the megatrend in favor of AI.
TSMC’s high-performance computing division, which encompasses artificial intelligence and 5G applications, drove sales in the fourth quarter, contributing 53% of revenue. That HPC revenue was up 19% from the previous quarter.
“The surging demand for AI chips has exceeded expectations in Q4,” Brady Wang, associate director at Counterpoint Research told CNBC, adding that revenue was also bolstered by demand for the advanced chips in Apple’s latest iPhone 16 model.
The Taiwan-based company first released its December revenue last week, bringing its annual total to NT$ 2.9 trillion — a record-breaking year in sales since the company went public in 1994.
“We observed robust AI related demand from our customers throughout 2024,” Wendell Huang, chief financial officer and vice president at TSMC, said in an earnings call on Thursday, adding that revenue from AI accelerator products accounted for “close to a mid-teens percentage” of total revenue in 2024.
“Even after more than tripling in 2024, we forecast our revenue from AI accelerators to double in 2025 as a strong surge in AI-related demand continues as a key enabler of AI applications,” Huang added.
However, TSMC may face some headwinds in 2025 from U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductor shipments to China and uncertainty surrounding the trade policy of President-elect Donald Trump.
TSMC Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei said the company will not attend Trump’s inauguration as its philosophy is to keep a low profile, Reuters reported.
Trump, who will assume office next week, has threatened to impose broad tariffs on imports and has previously accused Taiwan of “stealing” the U.S. chip business. .
Still, Counterpoint’s Wang forecasts 2025 to be another strong year for TSMC, with significant revenue growth fueled by strong and expanding demand for AI applications, both in diversity and volume.
Taiwan-listed shares of TSMC gained 81% in 2024 and were trading 3.75% higher on Thursday.
Stocks of European semiconductor companies trading on the Euronext Amsterdam Stock Exchange rose Thursday, with ASML up 3.5%, ASM International gaining 3.75% and Besi rising 5.1%.
A soldier walks next to a Tesla Cybertruck, which was donated to the National Guard, after powerful winds fueling devastating wildfires in the Los Angeles area forced people to evacuate, in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood on the west side of Los Angeles, California, U.S. Jan. 13, 2025.
Daniel Cole | Reuters
Tesla started offering discounts on new Cybertruck vehicles in its inventory this week, according to listings on the company’s website.
Discounts are as high as $1,600 off new Cybertrucks, with the reduced price depending on configuration, and up to around $2,600 for demo versions of the trucks in inventory, the listings show. Production of the angular, unpainted steel pickups has reportedly slowed in recent weeks at Tesla’s factory in Austin, Texas.
Deliveries of the unconventional pickup began reaching customers in 2023. CEO Elon Musk originally unveiled the Cybertruck in 2019 and said it would cost around $40,000, but its base price in the U.S. was closer to $80,000 over the course of 2024.
Wall Street previously viewed the Cybertruck as an important driver of growth for Tesla’s core automotive sales.
While the Cybertruck outsold the Ford Lightning F-150 last year in the U.S. and became the fifth best-selling EV domestically, according to data tracked by Cox Automotive, its high price, repeat recalls and production issues in Austin hampered growth. In November, Tesla initiated its sixth recall in a year to replace defective drive inverters.
As CNBC previously reported, Tesla’s deliveries declined slightly year-over-year in 2024, even as EV demand worldwide reached a record. A slew of new competitive models from a wide range of automakers eroded Tesla’s market share.
According to Cox data, full-year EV sales reached an estimated 1.3 million in 2024 in the U.S., an increase of 7.3% from the prior year. But Tesla’s sales for the year declined by about 37,000 vehicles.
The Tesla Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan ranked as the top two best-selling EVs by a wide margin. But both older, more affordable Tesla models saw sales drop from the previous year. Cox estimated Tesla sold around 38,965 Cybertrucks in the U.S. last year.
In recent days, Musk apologized to customers in California for delays in delivering their Cybertrucks. He said the trucks are now being used to bring supplies and wireless internet service to people in Los Angeles impacted by devastating wildfires.
“Apologies to those expecting Cybertruck deliveries in California over the next few days,” Musk wrote on X. “We need to use those trucks as mobile base stations to provide power to Starlink Internet terminals in areas of LA without connectivity. A new truck will be delivered end of week.”