Stepping out of Nick Saban’s shadow, Kirby Smart takes over as dean of SEC coaches
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4 months agoon
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Chris Low, ESPN Senior WriterSep 26, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
Close- College football reporter
- Joined ESPN.com in 2007
- Graduate of the University of Tennessee
ONE OF THE last things Kirby Smart said to Nick Saban last December at midfield of Mercedes-Benz Stadium following the SEC championship game proved to be prophetic.
“You can’t keep doing this much longer,” Smart joked with his former boss.
Alabama and Saban had just beaten Georgia and Smart — again — and five weeks later, Saban’s legendary coaching career would come to an end when he announced his retirement after 17 seasons and six national championships in Tuscaloosa. Before leading Georgia on a remarkable run of its own, Smart was part of four of those national titles as Saban’s defensive coordinator.
Granted, Saban hasn’t gone far, joining ESPN’s “College GameDay” crew. But he has traded the sideline stage for the TV stage, and for his suite during Alabama home games, which is where he will be Saturday night when Smart leads his No. 2 Bulldogs into Bryant-Denny Stadium to face No. 4 Alabama in one of the most anticipated matchups of the season (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+).
In eight seasons under Smart, Georgia has won two national titles, played for a third and won 13 or more games in each of the past three seasons. For all of Smart’s dizzying success, his only kryptonite was Saban. In fact, the last coach other than Saban to beat Smart was Dan Mullen at Florida in 2020, and Mullen is now an ESPN analyst as well.
Not counting Smart’s first season at Georgia in 2016, he has lost just 11 games. Five of those were to Saban, although Smart’s only win against Saban, in 2021, sent the Bulldogs to their first national championship in 41 years when they beat the Crimson Tide 33-18 in Indianapolis. Georgia repeated as national champs the next year, the first team to do so since Alabama in 2011 and 2012, and the Bulldogs won an SEC-record 29 straight games before losing to Alabama and Saban last season in the SEC championship game, costing them a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Who could blame Smart if he were to steal a quick glance across the field during pregame warmups Saturday to make sure Saban isn’t standing on the other sideline, still casting a shadow over Smart and the rest of the sport?
“I feel like he’s still in it, so I don’t really see it as there being a shadow,” Smart told ESPN. “He’s announcing. He’s still involved. He’s still trying to make things right in our game, with Congress or whomever. He ain’t going nowhere. This dude loves it, and he is going to be part of it for a long time. The game is better with him in it. I just have so much respect for him.
“He’s just not coaching anymore, and I don’t get any more chances to beat him.”
Only 48, Smart is far from finished. In fact, he might just be getting started. And not that he really cares, but with Saban retired, Smart has become the face of college football (at least from a coaching standpoint), and in many respects, one of the sport’s most salient voices. He’s the co-chair of the NCAA Football Rules Committee and the architect of a football machine that has produced more NFL first-round draft picks (17) than Smart has had losses (16) in eight seasons at Georgia.
“He understands what’s good for the game, what’s bad for the game. He’s on top of the sport right now,” said Dan Lanning, who was Smart’s defensive coordinator before becoming Oregon’s head coach two years ago. “He’s separated himself and put himself in a category of his own.”
But Smart wants no part of the Saban comparisons, and with good reason. Smart said probably nobody has impacted college football more than Saban, and that the precedent Saban set on the field is something everyone, himself included, will be chasing for a long time.
“We’ve been really good the last few years and had a lot of success and I’m certainly thankful for that. But in no way, shape or form does that put me on the pedestal or the statue that he was on,” Smart said. “I think there’s a group of people out there leading their programs who are really good coaches, and they’re lucky to have the programs that they do.
“But I don’t see it as a one-person spot or role or whatever word you want to use for it right now, not with him gone. I see it as a lot of guys out there competing and seeing who’s going to be the best and who’s going to have the next run — if there is one.”
With Saban’s phenomenal career at Alabama over, it’s Smart’s time to be front and center in the pressure cooker, and it will be fascinating to see how his image, job and life change — if they change at all — with his nemesis and mentor no longer coaching. Those who know Smart best suggest he has already laid the pathway to continued success.
“Nobody had more of a front-row seat to how Coach [Saban] did it than Kirby,” said Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, who was the offensive coordinator on Alabama’s 2015 national championship team when Smart was the defensive coordinator.
“You see a lot of what made [Saban] so great in what Kirby’s doing at Georgia, the way they recruit, the development of players, the organization, the size, length and physicality of the players. A lot of people who’ve come through there have tried to copy [Saban’s] model. As you’ve seen, it’s a lot easier said than done. It’s also the reason very few of us ever beat him, even Kirby.”
BARRY ODOM, NOW the coach at UNLV, entered the SEC head-coaching octagon at Missouri in 2016, the same year Smart was hired at Georgia, both taking the reins at their alma maters. Odom made it four years before being fired. Smart replaced Mark Richt after working under Saban for 10 consecutive seasons, including with the Miami Dolphins in 2006.
Odom said Smart is too focused on what’s right in front of him to let anything change him or the way he runs his program.
“He doesn’t have any blind spots. He’s elite, and I think he’ll go down in the history of college football as one of the best coaches ever,” Odom said. “And the crazy thing is there’s no drop-off. He has done it every single year.”
Georgia is the only team in the country to be ranked in the top seven of the final AP poll each of the past seven seasons, and Smart has been at his best in some of the biggest games. He has won five straight AP top-five matchups, one shy of the longest such streak ever by a head coach. Lou Holtz won six straight from 1988-90 at Notre Dame, and Saban won six in a row from 2017-18.
Before taking over the Bulldogs, Smart had several chances to leave Alabama for other jobs while working for Saban. When Gus Malzahn was hired at Auburn prior to the 2013 season, there was support on the Plains to hire Smart, especially from former coach Pat Dye, but Smart had promised Saban he would stay on as defensive coordinator through the national championship game. Then-Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs and the search committee were uncomfortable with the thought of the new coach at Auburn staying at rival Alabama for another month and helping lead the Tide to a national title.
There were other opportunities, too. Smart was South Carolina’s top target to fill its vacancy following the 2015 season after Steve Spurrier resigned midseason and was meeting with representatives from the school the day Richt was fired as Georgia’s head coach. Heading into the 2012 season, he was the front-runner at Southern Miss but withdrew his name from consideration. Richt even made a lucrative offer to lure Smart back to Georgia to be his defensive coordinator in 2011.
“Kirby’s done as good a job as anybody in college football, and he was patient and smart when he was [at Alabama] to wait for the right job,” Saban said. “Kirby had the right perspective on things. So many coaches take jobs because they think, whether it’s money or the title, that it’s going to promote their career. The only thing that promotes your career is winning, and we were in a great position here to continue winning and having really good defenses.
“Some guys aren’t patient enough to do that, but Kirby was and it paid off for him. He got what is probably the best job in the SEC and made it even better.”
It wasn’t a total rebuild for Smart as Richt had averaged nearly 10 wins a season, but getting the players to buy in to his way of doing things didn’t happen overnight. Georgia lost five games his first season, including losses to Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt.
“I wanted more than relevance. I wanted dominance,” Smart said of his mindset when taking the Georgia job. “I wanted to be consistent. I wanted to be competing for national championships and be very consistent, and that’s the one thing that I’m most proud of, the consistency that we’ve shown.”
Going back to his playing days, Smart has usually gotten what he has wanted. His former teammates and his coach at Georgia, Jim Donnan, never doubted Smart had the right temperament, intelligence and savvy to take a perennial top-20 program under Richt to the level where it would start stacking up championship trophies. Richt’s teams won at least 10 games in four of his final five seasons, but Georgia’s last SEC championship was in 2005. Smart was the running backs coach on that team, and it was also a productive year for him away from football. He met his wife, Mary Beth, who was working in the athletic association’s business office and played basketball at Georgia.
Donnan, who lives in Athens and remains close to the program, remembers seeing Smart, then a sophomore, tutor future Pro Football Hall of Famer Champ Bailey on the practice field when Bailey was a freshman in 1996.
“Kirby knew everything, what guys at every position were supposed to do. He was outgoing and demanding,” said Donnan, who gave Smart his coaching start in 1999 as an administrative assistant. Donnan took over as Georgia’s coach in 1996 after Ray Goff was fired. Smart had just finished his freshman season under Goff, and Donnan immediately knew he had a special leader in Smart.
“When you take over a program, there’s always going to be some doubters among the players that were there with the other coach,” Donnan said. “But right away, Kirby was very good about adjusting to me and not saying, ‘Hey, we didn’t used to do it that way.’ He made sure nobody else did either, and basically said, ‘Get on or get off.’ Even as a second-year player, he had the other guys’ respect.”
Matt Stinchcomb, now a television analyst for ESPN, was a two-time All-America offensive tackle at Georgia and played all four seasons (1995-98) with Smart.
“You’re dealing with an incredibly driven, high-capacity, high-horsepower guy who’s on go every second of every day,” Stinchcomb said. “He was the same way as a player, very demanding and forthright, and would communicate it whether you liked what he said or not, and I do think that has served him well in this capacity.
“I don’t think that he is careless with how he communicates, but he won’t let the importance of a message be diminished by how it might be received. If it needs to be said, it’s going to get said.”
Smart reminds his players often that humility in the SEC is only a week away. Two weeks ago, Georgia looked very beatable in a sluggish 13-12 win at Kentucky, and that might have been the perfect teaching moment for Smart as he got his team ready for Alabama during a bye week. The Tide have a chance to win their ninth game in the teams’ past 10 meetings, this time with first-year coach Kalen DeBoer at the helm. Smart (28-12) and DeBoer (8-2) are the only two current coaches in the SEC with winning records against teams that finished the season ranked in the final AP poll.
“The wind blows pretty hard up there at the top,” Stinchcomb said. “I don’t see [the Bulldogs] toppling, but when you grow the beast the way Kirby has, it only gets harder.”
It’s exactly what Smart signed up for when he took the job. He was undaunted by the gaudy expectations at a place that many around college football considered one of the sport’s biggest underachievers given how long it had been since Georgia last won a national championship — 1980 with Herschel Walker leading the way.
Perhaps the only other coach in the past two decades to walk in under that kind of pressure at his alma mater was Jim Harbaugh when he returned to Michigan in 2015.
Even Harbaugh didn’t match Smart’s early success, especially in the games that mattered most. Harbaugh lost five straight to rival Ohio State, which put a damper on his three 10-win seasons in his first five years in Ann Arbor. But he finally broke through and beat Ohio State each of his final three seasons, winning the Big Ten all three years and the national title in 2023.
“The thing about Kirby is he’s won so much so fast,” said North Carolina’s Mack Brown, who was at Texas eight years before winning a national championship. “Coach [Barry] Switzer said it best. He said that you create a monster, and it’s hard to keep that monster fed because he gets hungry.”
Last Saturday, an ESPN reporter was with Switzer at the Oklahoma-Tennessee game in Norman, Oklahoma, when a fan asked him, “I saw Coach Saban said college football is going to the dogs. What’s he talking about?”
“I think he was talking about Georgia,” Switzer said, laughing. “They’re beating everybody’s ass.”
JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY who came through the Alabama program when Saban and Smart were there together will tell you that Smart is probably the most like Saban of any of his former assistants.
And, yet, Smart didn’t try to be a Saban clone.
“If you were going to replicate [Saban], Kirby would be the one,” said Arkansas State athletic director Jeff Purinton, who came to Alabama in 2007 with Saban and worked as closely as anybody with him outside the football staff as associate athletic director for football communications.
“Think about how long and how much those two were together going back to when Kirby was at LSU with [Saban] in 2004. They were in the defensive back room together every day, both relentless recruiters. They’re a lot alike, but Kirby was also going to be his own guy and put his stamp on it.”
And for the record, Smart was always on Saban’s team in the staff’s lunchtime 3-on-3 basketball games.
“I was the damn commissioner. I picked the teams,” Saban said.
Smart said being able to use Saban’s blueprint was important, but joked “not as important as having good players and good facilities.”
His feel for his alma mater, Georgia’s geographic footprint for recruiting and the history of the program provided Smart advantages that a lot of former Saban assistants didn’t necessarily have when they landed head jobs.
“There are a lot of positives about this place that some of those other folks didn’t have, but I think you get comfortable in your own skin and you make decisions on things you want to do,” Smart said. “I definitely think I’ve changed during the time I’ve been here and it’s not as similar to Alabama as it was when I first got here. But even Nick evolved every year I was there.
“You’ve got to. You either evolve or you die, and we’ve certainly done that here.”
Smart, whose father, Sonny, was a high school football coach and mother, Sharon, was an English teacher, has been willing to listen and accept new ideas, even though he can be unbending on some of the most minute details.
“I like input. I like smart people around me,” Smart said. “It’s not a dictatorship deal. You make good decisions when you have good people around you.”
Just as Saban worked closely with sports psychologist Kevin Elko for two decades, Smart brought in Drew Brannon, a sports psychologist partnered with AMPLOS and based in Greenville, South Carolina, in 2020. Brannon had worked with Georgia athletes in the past, and Smart came out of the 2020 COVID season feeling as if something were missing in his program.
“Don’t underestimate the difference that made,” said Neyland Raper, who was Smart’s director of football operations before taking a job as the Big 12’s director of football operations and competition in July. “We had skull sessions with the players where they got up and told their stories. We formed small groups, and we did surveys with the players, trying to find more connectivity. You could see it transforming.
“Clemson was always the beacon of culture and Alabama the beacon of talent, and we moved to where we were somewhere in the middle ground. It’s worked because in this era of NIL and the money being paid, you wouldn’t believe how many kids who are really good players take a discount to come to Georgia. But, hey, that’s why they’re winning because players aren’t going there just for the money.”
For all the success on the field, it has been a turbulent year and a half off the field for Smart and the Georgia program. Players have continued to run afoul of the law with driving-related incidents, even after a fatal crash in January 2023 where recruiting staff member Chandler LeCroy and former player Devin Willock were killed while racing a car driven by star defensive lineman Jalen Carter. Both cars were traveling at more than 100 mph, and police said alcohol was involved in the crash.
There have been at least 20 arrests or citations involving players for driving-related violations, including DUI, speeding and reckless driving. Two of the most recent players to be arrested — running back Trevor Etienne (a DUI charge that was pleaded down) and cornerback Daniel Harris (a reckless driving charge after police said he was clocked at 106 mph) — missed playing time. Etienne was suspended for the season opener against Clemson, and Harris was held out of the win over Kentucky two weeks ago.
Smart said the issues have been addressed repeatedly and that punishment, including taking away players’ NIL money, has been doled out even if it’s not announced publicly.
“I’ll say what I’ve been saying, and that is that we’ve worked very hard with our administration to try to prevent it and stop it, and most importantly, keep everybody safe,” Smart said. “We’ve got to find a way to do that.”
On the field, what has separated Georgia, winner of 42 straight regular-season games under Smart, is the same thing that fueled Alabama’s dominance under Saban.
“We worked our ass off in recruiting,” Saban said. “We got good players and then we did a good job of developing the players. If you look at recent history, Georgia is having a No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 recruiting class every year, and they’re doing a great job of developing those really good players. So the combination of those two things has put them in the position to be one of the dominant programs in the country, probably the most dominant.”
Quarterback Carson Beck said the competition and depth of talent on the practice field has been the secret sauce under Smart, and it was the same way with Saban at Alabama. Smart squeezes out the uncompetitive, those players who simply aren’t a fit.
“If you’re afraid of competition, Georgia is the wrong place for you,” Beck said. “And if you don’t want to be coached hard and coached that way every single day, Coach Smart is the wrong coach for you.”
Practices at Alabama under Saban weren’t for the squeamish. He was constantly on the move, barking at coaches and players alike, and his way of getting his point across wouldn’t have been rated PG. Smart is the same way, only he has a microphone, and his voice reverberates — especially once the trees begin to lose their leaves in the fall — throughout the Five Points neighborhood behind the Georgia practice fields.
“I mean, it starts from the top down,” Beck said. “That’s every big business, every team, and Coach [Smart] is the pinnacle. There’s no letup. He’s at the top and it’s going to work all the way down.”
Smart’s personality and connection with his players have shown through loudly (and with explicit language) in videos of his impassioned locker room speeches that have appeared on social media in recent years.
“It’s like any family,” he said. “You’re most honest with the people you care the most about.”
Family is important to Smart. He allowed co-defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, one of his closest confidants, to transition to an analyst’s role, freeing up Muschamp and his wife, Carol, to travel on weekends to watch their son, Whit, play at Vanderbilt. Smart has made similar arrangements so assistant coaches could be at their kids’ activities.
“When Kirby’s not in the football building or recruiting, he’s with his family,” Donnan said.
Smart’s penchant for having a hand in everything that touches his program is renowned. As control freaks go in the coaching ranks, and there are many, Smart is at or near the top. And if you think Smart is all-knowing when it comes to his football team, Donnan said you ought to see him at one of his three kids’ sporting events. His youngest son, Andrew, played in the Little League World Series this summer.
“He’s a good dad, and he can tell you everything about every kid on the team, knows all their strengths and weaknesses,” Donnan said. “I mean, he’s talking about the left fielder, knows which kids won’t swing the bat, which ones go after bad pitches.
“He doesn’t miss a whole lot.”
But, then, he learned from the best.
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Sports
Sources: Cubs finalizing trade for reliever Pressly
Published
4 hours agoon
January 27, 2025By
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Jesse RogersJan 26, 2025, 05:17 PM ET
Close- Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
CHICAGO — The Cubs are finalizing a trade to acquire closer Ryan Pressly from the Houston Astros, pending medical review, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Sunday.
Pressly will waive his no-trade clause to facilitate the move, and Houston will send money to help cover his $14 million salary, the sources said.
The Astros will receive a low-level Cubs prospect who is not on Chicago’s 40-man roster, according to a source.
Pressly, 36, is likely to become the Cubs’ closer, a role he held with Houston from 2021 to 2023 before it signed Josh Hader to a long-term contract. The veteran righty has 112 saves with a 3.27 ERA during his 12-year career, which includes six seasons in Minnesota.
Pressly will join a bullpen that blew 26 saves last season, as the Cubs are looking to make a playoff push in 2025. Chicago hasn’t been to the postseason since 2020, working without an established closer over the past few years.
Righty Adbert Alzolay was ineffective last season, then he suffered a forearm injury and eventually needed Tommy John surgery. Porter Hodge, 23, finished the season as the closer, but the team wanted more experience and depth in the back end of the bullpen.
The Cubs pursued lefty Tanner Scott before he signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers last weekend, according to league sources. Chicago was less interested in the other free agent closers, instead settling for Pressly, who has one year left on a three-year, $42 million contract signed before the 2023 season.
Pressly will join newcomers Eli Morgan, Cody Poteet, Matt Festa, Caleb Thielbar and Rob Zastryzny in the Cubs’ bullpen.
The trade likely will conclude the bulk of the team’s winter moves.
Sports
Are the Dodgers two playoff teams in one? We split them in half to find out
Published
4 hours agoon
January 27, 2025By
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Bradford DoolittleJan 27, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
Welcome folks, it’s a resplendent fall day in Flatbush, and six months ago, who could have imagined this? The visiting Los Angeles Dodgers are ready to take the field in Brooklyn at the new Ebbets Field with the 2025 National League pennant on the line.
Standing in the way of the L.A. nine are their literal offspring, the Brooklyn Trolleys, the most unusual expansion team in baseball history. Champions of the NL West, the Trolleys’ 98 wins earned them today’s homefield edge over the 87-win wild-card Dodgers.
The grandstand at Ebbets is already full on this clear autumn day, the patrons shuffling through the fabulous rotunda down below. The scoreboard is gleaming and the reconstituted Schaefer Beer sign above it is ready to call the hits and errors.
Roki Sasaki is making his final warmup throws now for Brooklyn. Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani watches from the on-deck circle, ready to lead off the game for Los Angeles. Game 7 of the NLCS is about to get underway.
It’s time for Trolleys baseball!
Wait … what is happening here?
The Los Angeles Dodgers — the real ones — are working on a streak of 12 straight playoff appearances. Eleven of those seasons have ended with an NL West title. Four have added to the franchise’s pennant count. After last fall’s World Series win over the New York Yankees, two of those seasons have resulted in championships.
After this winter’s stunning run of high-level acquisitions, people are asking with real concern about whether the Dodgers might have finally broken baseball. It’s not hard to understand why.
The expectations for the Dodgers have never been higher, and that’s saying something. ESPN Bet currently has the Dodgers’ over/under for wins at 103.5, 10 more than any other team. Cot’s Contracts estimates L.A.’s CBT payroll number at $374.1 million. If you split that in half — $187.05 million — the CBT payroll would still rank 15th in the majors.
Hmmm, split the Dodgers in half? Is that a solution? Well, obviously it is not. But let’s imagine that it was, that some trust-busting commissioner took over, or some bizarre schism took place in the Guggenheim Baseball Management group.
This is fantastical, but stick with me. Here’s the sequence of events that have led to our dream game at a brand new version of Ebbets Field.
• The Dodgers’ dominance and hoarding of superstar talent becomes viewed as an existential threat to baseball. Fans are screaming. Owners are wringing their hands.
• Partially in response to this situation, Colorado Rockies owner Dick Monfort announces that his franchise is withdrawing from MLB and will join the Banana Ball Championship League. The Rockies struggle in their new circuit, but their fans keep turning out anyway.
• Fights break out in the Guggenheim group. Who knows why. Lawsuits are filed. Desperate to resolve the situation and to fill the one-team void in the NL West, commissioner Rob Manfred takes up a Brooklyn developer’s offer to construct an exact replica of Ebbets Field on the same block where the sacred old green cathedral stood for decades. The residents who are currently there are respectfully relocated. The new park springs up with alarming alacrity.
• At the winter meetings, Manfred’s solution is announced. The Dodgers will be split in half. Everything. Their organizational talent — on the field and off — is divided evenly. The offshoot of the Dodgers will play at the reconstituted Ebbets Field and will be called the Trolleys, keeping with tradition. The new club will be managed by Gabe Kapler and its front office run by Farhan Zaidi.
It’s a lot, I know. It’s impossible. But let’s suspend disbelief for just a moment so we can get at a real question: Have the Dodgers accumulated so much talent that, at this point, they could field two contending rosters?
Before Game 7 gets underway, let’s run through the lineup Dodgers manager Dave Roberts will pit against Brooklyn ace Sasaki.
Designated hitter Ohtani will lead off. Batting second is shortstop Tommy Edman. Catcher Will Smith is in the three-hole. Batting cleanup is right fielder Teoscar Hernandez. Out in left and batting fifth is Michael Conforto. Batting sixth is center fielder Andy Pages.
Youngster Dalton Rushing will play first and hit seventh, followed by third baseman Chris Taylor in the eight-hole. Finally, batting ninth and playing the keystone is second baseman Andy Freeland.
Let’s get started.
To divide the Dodgers’ current organizational roster, I took a straightforward approach. I started by flipping a coin for Ohtani. Los Angeles got him. Since Ohtani pitches and hits, I then gave Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to Brooklyn.
From there, I just ranked each positional group by projected WAR and assigned every other player to one team or the other. Some jostling was done to make sure the spread of positions was equitable and that the bottom-line WAR projection was as close as possible. Each team was assigned 35 players.
Kirby Yates, whose reported agreement with the Dodgers has not yet gone official, was included. So was Clayton Kershaw, still a free agent, but let’s face it — we all think he’s going back to L.A.
We had to dip pretty deep into prospect lists to fill things out, accelerating the MLB arrival of some young players in a way that would never happen. The Dodgers’ list of non-roster invites for spring training was light on veterans with any kind of track record, so other than Yates and Kershaw, we had to stick with who is already on hand.
Here are Opening Day rosters of the split-in-two Dodgers, which are also the rosters in effect for our imaginary game.
There’s nothing going for the Dodgers against Roki Sasaki in the first despite Ohtani’s drive to the screen in the deepest reaches of right-center. Nice play by Outman on that one.
Mookie Betts striding to the plate, getting ready for the first offering by Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Let’s run through Gabe Kapler’s lineup for the Trolleys.
Betts, playing right, will get things going. He’ll be followed by second baseman Kim and first baseman Freeman in the three-hole. Hitting cleanup is third-sacker Max Muncy, followed by young left fielder Josue De Paula.
Shortstop Miguel Rojas is hitting sixth, followed by center fielder Outman, catcher Barnes and, batting ninth, rookie Austin Gauthier.
Yamamoto is set. Betts digs in. Yamamoto winds. Someone in the grandstand is ringing a cowbell. Here’s the pitch …
The position player groups on our split rosters are thin. That’s the first thing that jumps out. That’s why there are so many prospects in the mix who are not ready for prime time. If these teams were real, Zaidi and Andrew Friedman would have been much more proactive about filling out the benches with veteran options.
Still, both rosters can field nearly full lineups of bona fide big league regulars, including a smattering of stars for both sides. Neither would be close to the worst lineup in the majors.
Now about that Rockies thing … I needed to pull a team out of the league to accommodate the new club. To do that, I changed all of the Rockies players into free agents and then flagged my future Trolleys as members of the Rockies. This allowed me to easily fold the new team into my projection machinery.
My projection system includes some organizational factors that are blended to the team forecast to account for depth (or lack thereof), which some teams are better at producing consistently than others. I beefed that factor a little here to account for the youth on the teams.
That helped, but neither squad projects as elite on offense. In the park-neutral run projections, the Dodgers came in at 672 (24th) and the Trolleys at 655 (26th). That might not read as impressive but it actually is because — remember — we are literally measuring two half-teams.
Still, the split Dodgers aren’t contention-worthy from an offensive standpoint. They’ll need some elite pitching to enter the playoff picture.
We’re in the top of the second. Two down, no one on base. Sasaki has set down the first five Dodgers in order. Andy Pages is stepping up to the dish for L.A.
From here, I can see a group of confused-looking people wandering around on the sidewalk on the other side of Bedford Avenue. They’re probably looking for that coffee shop that was there a few weeks ago. Things have changed fast around here.
Pages sends a bouncer toward short. Rojas races over, but it’s going to get through into left field. Pages rounds the bag at first, but he’ll hold on there for the Dodgers’ first hit of the game. Dalton Rushing is next.
… After two misses from Sasaki, Rushing is up in the count 2-0. Sasaki checks the runner at first but Pages has a short lead. Sasaki from the stretch … Rushing crushes a fastball to right-center! Outman is giving chase. He’s back, to the warning track — and it’s gone!
Dalton Rushing crushes a two-run homer off of Roki Sasaki, clearing the green canvas batting eye in center field. The Dodgers have grabbed the early 2-0 lead.
What really stands out on our split rosters is the pitching, both in terms of the quality and the depth. That’s true for both rotations and both bullpens. This gives you a sense of just how much pitching the Dodgers have accumulated for their coming title defense.
Both teams have a star-studded rotation of big threes: Yamamoto, Glasnow and Ohtani for the Dodgers; Snell, Sasaki and Kershaw for the Trolleys.
Both have three legit closer-level back-end relievers: Scott, Treinen and Yates for the Dodgers; Phillips, Vesia and Kopech for the Trolleys.
I didn’t overinflate inning projections. In most cases, they are within bounds of what I’ve forecasted for the real Dodgers, who have so many injury returnees and young arms that they will monitor.
That means prospect depth is tapped more deeply than it would be in real life, just as with the position players. This is a drag on the split teams’ forecasts, but the outlook for both remains promising. As with position players, an organizational depth factor was blended into the projections.
The Trolleys have the edge with a projection of 680 park-neutral runs allowed (11th) while the Dodgers come in at 703 (15th). A pitching staff split in two. Both average or better.
That is pretty stunning.
One down, bottom of the sixth. We’re still knotted at 2. Yamamoto will stay in after walking Freeman, with Max Muncy striding to the plate. Muncy’s solo homer in the bottom of the second accounted for Brooklyn’s first run. Josue De Paula’s fourth inning single plated Freeman with the other tally, after Kim was thrown out at the plate by Teoscar Hernandez on Freeman’s double off the screen in right.
I’m a little surprised Roberts is sticking with Yamamoto here. The lefty Scott has been getting hot in the bullpen and Muncy represents the go-ahead run for Brooklyn if he goes yard again.
… Here’s the 2-2 pitch. Muncy lines one into right for a base hit. Freeman rounds the bag at second and retreats. The Trolleys have something cooking. And here comes Roberts. That’ll do it for Yamamoto, who has been excellent.
… So Tanner Scott whiffs De Paula and it’ll be up to Rojas. … Scott checks the runners. Here’s his 2-2 pitch. Popped up! Moving over toward the line is Taylor. He’s there and puts the squeeze on it. The side is retired.
The Trolleys threaten but Scott works out of Yamamoto’s jam. We’re through six and the Dodgers and Trolleys are tied at 2.
Our baseline projections have both versions of the Dodgers being outscored, but not by much. The Trolleys fare a little better with a baseline win projection of 78.2, while the Dodgers are at 77.7.
Thus, rounding off, both squads project as 78-84 teams. The balance between them was intentional, of course. So was the decision to keep the Rockies-turned-Trolleys in the same division — the NL West — which in real life wouldn’t make sense. But sense isn’t what we’re after today.
Both teams would be forecast to finish behind, in order, the Diamondbacks, Padres and Giants in the NL West, but both are also close to the 80-win Giants. All of those teams would certainly be very happy about the Dodgers being broken up.
While a 78-win projection isn’t super exciting, in the current landscape of MLB, it’s good enough that a team can enter a season with realistic playoff hopes. How realistic? To answer that, we of course turn to simulations.
Freeland flailed at that 1-2 offering from Kopech and there’s two down in the Dodgers’ half of the eighth. Kapler emerges from the Brooklyn dugout. He wants the lefty Vesia to face Ohtani, who represents the go-ahead run.
… Ohtani jumps in front 1-0 after Vesia misses with the fastball. It’s been a tough day for Ohtani, who flew out to the fence twice in the early innings and whiffed against Sasaki in the sixth.
Vesia, an absolutely vicious southpaw, stares at Barnes behind the plate and nods his head. Here’s the pitch.
Ohtani swings and there’s a fly ball into right center. This one’s got a chance. Hernandez and Pages are fading. They look up and it’s gone! Ohtani has clubbed one over the Schaefer sign and out onto Bedford Ave.
The Dodgers have broken the logjam, nabbing a 3-2 lead in the eighth. Dave Roberts has already used Tanner Scott and, in the bottom of the inning, Blake Treinen will enter his second inning of work. He still has Ryan Brasier and Kirby Yates in reserve.
Our 78-win split Dodgers rosters were fed into my simulation machinery and 10,000 runs of the 2025 schedule were logged.
Both teams made the playoffs about 19% of the time, mostly as wild-card entrants. They landed at less than 1% odds to win it all, but, of course, that means it did happen on occasion for both the Dodgers and the Trolleys. The Braves emerged as the new overall favorite to win the World Series.
I scanned the simulation logs and found four instances out of 10,000 when the Dodgers and Trolleys squared off in the NLCS. In one of them — simulation #3,368 — the series went seven games. That’s the one in which the Trolleys won the NL West with 98 wins, while the 87-win Dodgers nabbed the six-seed.
Those are the squads I decided to breathe virtual life into by recreating those rosters in the sim Action! PC Baseball, produced by Dave Koch Sports. The play-by-play you’re reading in these alternating sections comes from that game, in which I managed both teams. Yes, it’s actually my fault, not Roberts, that the Dodgers nearly waited one batter too long to get Yamamoto out of the game in the sixth.
And, yes, I even went so far as to use the Los Angeles and Brooklyn logos and to play the game in a rendering of Ebbets Field. Hey, it’s January, and we’ve been without baseball for too long now.
The Trolleys are down to their last two outs. The usually raucous crowd at Ebbets Field is quiet and a nervous energy pervades this little block of Brooklyn. The walk Gauthier drew against Yates to start the inning had the gathering stirred up again, but the strikeout of Betts has silenced them for now.
Those two insurance runs the Dodgers tacked on against Vesia are looming large now, even after Evan Phillips limited the damage in the ninth. Hyeseong Kim steps to the plate. He’s reached base three times on a single and a pair of walks. The Trolleys need him to reach for a fourth time to get Freeman to the plate representing the tying run.
Man, this place is tense.
Yates checks Gauthier at first. He’s got a huge lead but the Dodgers, with that three-run bulge, don’t care what he does. Not sure why Gauthier doesn’t just break for second. Here’s the pitch.
Kim reaches and taps a little bouncer toward Freeland, he scoops and flips to Edman for one, the relay to first is … in time! It’s a game-ending double play! The Dodgers are the National League champions!
Can you believe it? After all of that drama and tumult of last winter, one during which the entire industry rose to break up the Dodgers’ dynasty, they’ve done it anyway. L.A. is headed to the World Series.
Again.
Cherry picking one simulation out of 10,000 doesn’t prove anything, but hopefully it does illustrate the point: The Dodgers are unbelievably stacked.
Going through the actual exercise of pitting two teams, comprised only of right-now Dodgers players, really draws that out. While the game unfolded, it never felt like I was working with two strange, thin teams, but two bona fide, well-constructed big league rosters full of outstanding and interesting players.
I went with the Yamamoto-Sasaki matchup, but it would have been just as exhilarating had I gone with any combination of those two, Ohtani, Glasnow, Snell or Kershaw.
Because the sim game was close, I had to think situationally in the late innings, but at no point was I confronted with a bad bullpen option. The closest I came to it was when I had to use Brasier to get two outs in the eighth after Treinen tired. I had already burned Scott and wanted to keep Yates for the ninth.
This is the kind of thing the Dodgers’ opponents are going to have to overcome next October. If the Dodgers can get that staff to the postseason healthy — obviously far from a sure thing — there will be no room for opposing offenses to breathe.
And those lineup holes that pop up when you split the Dodgers’ position group in two? Those won’t be there.
The 12-team playoff format, so inclusive and so random, means no team can be a sure thing in any projection of the next champion. I have referred to that as the illusion of competitiveness, and the Dodgers are the perfect example. They have built a powerhouse roster and set themselves apart from every other team in baseball. Yet they still have less than a one-in-three shot at repeating as champs.
Make no mistake though: These Dodgers are an absolute on-paper powerhouse. It’s a team that has a chance to do truly historic things. If they do, the other 29 teams still can’t collude to break them up as if they were an 1890s railroad monopoly.
But some of those teams might well look into joining the Rockies in the Banana Ball Championship League.
Sports
‘It’s pretty rare’: How Dylan Strome finally found his superpowers with the Capitals
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5 hours agoon
January 27, 2025By
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Kristen ShiltonJan 27, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Kristen Shilton is a national NHL reporter for ESPN.
Dylan Strome can’t stop outdoing himself. And that’s a good thing — for Strome, and the Washington Capitals.
Strome is the Capitals’ leading scorer (with 12 goals and 46 points in 49 games) and is on pace to put up a third consecutive career-best season. Washington’s top-line center has been a backbone to the club’s surprising success and helped carry the Capitals through their challenging stretches.
The 27-year-old stepped up offensively when frequent linemate Alex Ovechkin was sidelined five weeks because of a fractured fibula, notching five goals and 10 points while shouldering 18:24 of ice time per game. And he has been markedly consistent in his production, with a recent six-game pointless streak the only real “drought” to date.
But Strome doesn’t need to be on the scoresheet to have an impact. What he does well — at 5-on-5 and the power play — is reflected in a strong 200-foot game that has elevated the Capitals into Stanley Cup contenders. If that reality caught anyone around the league off guard, well, let’s just say Strome knew Washington was something special — and that eventually, he’d prove to (former) doubters that he is, too.
DYLAN STROME LEAVES quite an impression. And not just on the ice.
Conor Sheary recalls the early days around his former Capitals teammate with a hearty laugh over Strome’s puzzling — but undeniably infectious — personality.
“My first thoughts on Dylan? That’s a loaded question,” Sheary said. “I think with his appearance, he comes off like a pretty goofy kid. He’s always in a good mood. He almost seems lazy at times, just because he’s kind of laid back and just doing his own thing.
“But then he goes into a game and is the ultimate teammate. It’s crazy. He’s someone who just fits in right away, and guys want to be around him.”
Alex DeBrincat recalled a similar interaction with Strome when he arrived to the Ontario Hockey League’s Erie Otters — and swiftly discovered Strome’s magnetism.
“He was the guy who really welcomed me in and made me feel comfortable,” DeBrincat said. “During [training] camp, a lot of the guys would go over to his house and Stromer invited me to hang out there too with some of the older guys. He’s pretty goofy, always trying to have a good time. He runs with that and makes the most of everything. We just clicked right away.”
The pairing of DeBrincat and Strome on a line — which included Connor McDavid — led them to scorching the OHL in seasons to come. It wouldn’t be the only team on which Strome and DeBrincat found quick chemistry, either (but more on that later).
It was Strome’s reputation as a happy-go-lucky kid that preceded him to the NHL draft floor in 2015, where the Arizona Coyotes called his name with the third pick. The walk on stage that followed — with the hand shaking and the jersey acceptance and a wide-toothed grin at the cameras — was Strome taking his first steps onto an unexpected roller coaster that would jostle him through the next handful of years.
That wasn’t exactly the plan.
Strome, now 27, entered the league as a highly touted prospect who had just won the 2015 OHL scoring title with 129 points (he narrowly topped linemate McDavid, who was limited to just 47 games because of injury but still scored 120 points). The idea was for Strome to become a pillar of the Coyotes franchise.
Instead, he skated in just 48 games for Arizona over three seasons, accumulating only seven goals and 16 points before being traded in November 2018 to the Chicago Blackhawks. A tumultuous tenure there ended acrimoniously, and pushed Strome to the Capitals — the comfortable landing spot for Strome that he’d given DeBrincat a decade before in Erie.
It hasn’t been easy. But for better or worse, Strome is convinced he’s just getting started.
“You’re never going to completely shed [certain] labels and you’re always going to be drafted where you were drafted. I think that’s always going to be part of my hockey story,” Strome said. “It didn’t work out in Arizona. I thought it was going really well in Chicago until I hit a few speed bumps in the road.
“But then you get to Washington, and [in hindsight] those other places prepared me to be a good player on a good team. And I feel like that’s where I’m at now, where I’m trying to produce on a good team. And so far, it’s been fun.”
Fun, and then some. It was a long time coming.
STROME IS HARDWIRED to see the good.
It’s how he got through those early years being labeled a “bust” on whom the rebuilding Coyotes had wasted their coveted third overall selection. There was no escaping such narratives while Strome was struggling, shuffled between the NHL and American Hockey League when his peers were thriving in their own locales; McDavid, No. 2 pick Jack Eichel and No. 5 pick Noah Hanifin transitioned right to the NHL, while No. 4 pick Mitch Marner debuted in the NHL a season later.
“When you see guys around you doing so well and even playing [at all] in the NHL, yeah, it’s in your mind that you don’t want to be the guy that was drafted high and never made it or never played,” Strome said. “You never know if you’ll find your [place] and if the rest of that stuff and that talk will ever go away.”
The conversation around Strome hit a fever pitch when Arizona traded him and Brendan Perlini to Chicago for Nick Schmaltz after Strome had appeared in 20 games in the 2018-19 season. It was an initially positive switch for Strome when he was reunited on a line with former Otters’ teammate DeBrincat along with Patrick Kane — and broke out with the best numbers of his career to that point (17 goals and 51 points in 58 games).
Strome produced well in Chicago over the next two years as well — notching 21 goals and 55 points in 98 outings — and signed a two-year, $6 million contract extension in January 2021.
Then the wheels began to fall off.
The Blackhawks endured a brutal start to the 2021-22 season, going 1-9-2 and seeing coach Jeremy Colliton fired. Strome was a healthy scratch in seven of Chicago’s first 11 games, and it wasn’t until Colliton was out — and interim head coach Derek King stepped in — that Strome was back in a top-six position. But the previous benching had taken its toll.
“I feel like when you’re drafted high, you get a little longer leash and people know that the skill is there and it’s in you to play well,” Strome said. “So then when there are times where you haven’t played in five games and then you go in and you don’t play very well and then you’re out again and suddenly it’s like, ‘When’s the next time you’re even going to play again?’
“I always believed in myself, but you question, ‘What’s going to happen here?’ You think to yourself, ‘How long can I do this for? How long are they going to allow me to do this for?'”
King could see the strain on Strome when he took over from Colliton. The goofiness that defined Strome to others was kept well hidden — at first — by the player’s determination to be taken seriously.
“He put his nose to the grindstone and said, ‘I can do this and I’m going to do it,’ and he just worked hard,” King said. “I knew how good he was. I wanted to get him in and get him playing. When it was game time he would knuckle down, and he took advantage when he got his chance.”
Strome admits he didn’t walk through those rough patches alone. Reaching out for support kept the frustration and doubts from boiling over.
“When you get home after you’ve been a scratch, it’s easy to be disappointed,” Strome said. “My dad was someone I talked to every day about situations, and he was just trying to keep me positive and realizing chances are going to come. Family was the biggest factor in getting through that, but I also had a few good friends on the team, too, like DeBrincat and Kaner, that were there for me in tough times, and I’ll always be thankful for that.”
King had Strome back with his two favorite linemates so they could flourish like before — “those three always saw the game the same way,” King said — and it was a further testament to Strome’s tenacity that he could slide right back into a productive role despite inconsistent ice time.
“There was a lot of not wanting to be very positive,” Strome said. “But I was just sticking with it. I know it’s kind of cliche, but just trying to trust yourself and trust your skills so that when you do get back in you’re going to find a way to help the team win.
“It was actually a game here [in Toronto] that brought me back, I thought. I was scratched the night before, then got moved up to the first line for [the Toronto game], and then just tried to ride with it for the rest of the season from there. Sometimes all you need is that one little jump to get you going.”
Strome finished the season fourth on the Blackhawks with 22 goals and 48 points in 69 games. DeBrincat was a key figure in Strome’s flourishing on the ice, but more than that he provided a backbone of friendship to boost Strome’s spirits during one of his career’s hardest stretches.
“When you’re going to the rink and things aren’t necessarily going your way, it’s hard to keep that [positive] energy, but I tried to keep things light and just be there for him,” DeBrincat said. “I knew he was a great player, and he did have a tough time in Chicago that last year, but once he was playing every game, he was right back to his old self. And I think you saw him creating plays and creating offense like that every night. When he gets his opportunities, he proves he can really play well.”
The front office had apparently seen enough, though. Strome was an impending restricted free agent in summer 2022, and when it came time to receive a qualifying offer from the Blackhawks, one never came. Suddenly, he was a unrestricted free agent with an uncertain future.
Two days into free agency, he signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract with the Capitals. It was a club Strome thought would have his back.
“I feel like it’s important in hockey that whenever you get a chance to try to take the ball you’ve got to run with it,” he said. “When a team or a coach or GM or just someone believes in you, you’ve really got to try to ride that as long as you can and hopefully get a contract and show them you can produce.”
Washington wouldn’t wait long for a significant return on their investment.
SHEARY WILL FREELY ADMIT now he knew nothing about Strome — player or person — before they were Capitals teammates.
And like so many modern relationships, it was social media that introduced them before they connected in real life.
“It was our wives,” Sheary said. “They noticed we had daughters the same age [Strome has two kids with wife Taylor; Sheary has three with wife Jordan], and they connected on Instagram. So we were virtual friends, and then after [Strome arrived in town], naturally we started hanging out with them a lot.
“It seemed pretty natural. We just had a lot in common. And then we started to play together on the ice, too, which only brought us closer.”
The early synergy with Sheary mirrored an equally easy transition into Washington’s lineup. The Capitals let Strome loose in a top-six role, and he put up a career-best season in 2022-23 with 23 goals and 65 points in 81 games. It was the most Strome had ever played in one NHL season, and the production wasn’t a surprise given his penchant for taking advantage of opportunities.
“Honestly, it just helps when you get a good opportunity to play every night. I was having fun again,” Strome said of his first season with the Capitals. “You’re playing good minutes and on the power play and you’re trying to help the team win. I think a lot of things meshed together at the right time for me and it was good.”
“He’s an incredibly smart hockey player,” Sheary added. “He’s got great vision, he’s an incredible playmaker and he’s really strong on his stick; he rarely misses a pass. And those kind of things add up throughout a game where, if you can just get it in his area, and he’s able to handle it or make a play, it’s pretty impressive, and his poise with the puck when he does get it, is something that you can’t really teach.”
The stronger Strome’s game became, the more he distanced himself from that portrait of a failed draft pick. Sheary couldn’t relate to Strome on that level — he was undrafted — but the veteran has been around long enough to know how pressure can make or break even the top-tier skaters.
“When you’re an 18-year-old kid and you come in as a third overall pick, the expectation is immediate, and if that’s not met, sometimes I feel like that can hurt a player,” Sheary said. “But I think once Dylan moved on to Chicago, he became more of a player that he wanted to be. And then when he moved on to Washington, he was able to flourish in a bigger role, and he started playing on the top couple lines, and he proved that he could do that, night in and night out.
“He’s grown more into the player he was expected to be right away, but sometimes that takes some time. I think he just finally came into his own once he came to Washington.”
And how. Strome is aging like a fine wine with the Capitals, setting new benchmarks year over year that have served in propelling Washington atop the NHL standings midway through this season. Strome paces the Capitals in points since arriving with Washington to start the 2022-23 season (with 178 in 209 games) and is second in goals only to — you might have guessed — Alex Ovechkin.
Strome has been a regular linemate of Ovechkin’s, too — a privilege he holds in the proper perspective.
“It’s been an honor to play on his line,” Strome said. “I mean, you see how serious he is, but also how much fun he has. The guy loves scoring goals more than anyone I’ve ever seen, but he also loves being on the ice when someone else scores a goal more than I’ve ever seen. He wants you to score. He wants to score. He wants to be on the ice in key situations, and he wants to shoot the puck and he wants to get open. That’s a good combination to have.”
Alex Ovechkin scores his 872nd career goal to increase Caps’ lead
Alex Ovechkin nets his 872nd career goal and is 23 goals away from breaking Wayne Gretzky’s record.
The lift from Ovechkin is only part of why Strome might now be in his greatest season yet, having collected 12 goals and 46 points through 46 games. He’d been centering a line with Ovechkin and Aliaksei Protas when Ovechkin fractured his fibula in mid-November. It was then on Strome to be a crucial piece of propping up the Capitals’ attack — with six goals and 13 points — while the team’s captain sat out for five weeks.
Washington coach Spencer Carbery suspected Strome would step up in Ovechkin’s absence. It falls in line with the “ultra competitive” player Carbery met when he joined the Capitals.
“A lot of people wrote him off early in his career, whether it was in Arizona or Chicago, and he’s continued to press forward and want to get better and better and better,” Carbery said. “[He’s] not just settling into, ‘Well, I’m just going to be an OK player in the National Hockey League.’ He’s still trying to get better and still trying to push the envelope to become an elite player in the NHL and be a top center, and he’s continued to prove it. And now I think this is his third year in a row where he’s trending to be a better player than he was the year before. And you see that at times, but it’s pretty rare.”
It also hasn’t come by accident. Strome has put in the work behind the scenes to become this version of an NHL player.
And, if Sheary is correct, it’ll shift Strome into another chapter of his life, too, when it’s time to hang up the skates:
“I always joke that he’s going to be a GM someday.”
MOST PEOPLE REFUSE to take the office home at night. Strome is not one of those folks.
“He’s a big-time hockey nerd,” Sheary said. “In Wash, we were all fascinated by his hockey knowledge. He can spit anyone’s statistics without even looking them up. He loves knowing that stuff, knowing points and goals, which was pretty intriguing. I’ve never seen someone know so much about the game of hockey.”
The obsession likely started early for Strome given his family’s hockey lineage — Strome’s older brother, Ryan, plays for the Anaheim Ducks and his younger brother Matthew was a fourth-round pick by Philadelphia in 2017. Staying curious about the game appears to be part of Strome’s DNA. And his dream was larger than just making the league; he wanted staying power. And never gave up on finding it.
“I think I’m pretty close to what I thought I would be as a player,” Strome said. “It took a little longer than I thought to be a guy that’s consistently in the lineup every day. I am more of a pass-first guy. I do try to be a good teammate. But I also feel like that’s what I thought I could do the best in the NHL and now it looks pretty close to what I’ve become.”
There’s just one thing missing for Strome now — and the Capitals are on track to check it off his list this spring: a real run at contending for a Stanley Cup.
If the league-leading Capitals can reach that level, it will be with Strome at the forefront. After years of searching for it, he has found a home in Washington. And now more than ever, there’s no place like it.
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