Stepping out of Nick Saban’s shadow, Kirby Smart takes over as dean of SEC coaches
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Chris Low, ESPN Senior Writer
ONE OF THE last things Kirby Smart said to Nick Saban last December at midfield of Mercedes-Benz Stadium following the SEC championship game proved to be prophetic.
“You can’t keep doing this much longer,” Smart joked with his former boss.
Alabama and Saban had just beaten Georgia and Smart — again — and five weeks later, Saban’s legendary coaching career would come to an end when he announced his retirement after 17 seasons and six national championships in Tuscaloosa. Before leading Georgia on a remarkable run of its own, Smart was part of four of those national titles as Saban’s defensive coordinator.
Granted, Saban hasn’t gone far, joining ESPN’s “College GameDay” crew. But he has traded the sideline stage for the TV stage, and for his suite during Alabama home games, which is where he will be Saturday night when Smart leads his No. 2 Bulldogs into Bryant-Denny Stadium to face No. 4 Alabama in one of the most anticipated matchups of the season (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+).
In eight seasons under Smart, Georgia has won two national titles, played for a third and won 13 or more games in each of the past three seasons. For all of Smart’s dizzying success, his only kryptonite was Saban. In fact, the last coach other than Saban to beat Smart was Dan Mullen at Florida in 2020, and Mullen is now an ESPN analyst as well.
Not counting Smart’s first season at Georgia in 2016, he has lost just 11 games. Five of those were to Saban, although Smart’s only win against Saban, in 2021, sent the Bulldogs to their first national championship in 41 years when they beat the Crimson Tide 33-18 in Indianapolis. Georgia repeated as national champs the next year, the first team to do so since Alabama in 2011 and 2012, and the Bulldogs won an SEC-record 29 straight games before losing to Alabama and Saban last season in the SEC championship game, costing them a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Who could blame Smart if he were to steal a quick glance across the field during pregame warmups Saturday to make sure Saban isn’t standing on the other sideline, still casting a shadow over Smart and the rest of the sport?
“I feel like he’s still in it, so I don’t really see it as there being a shadow,” Smart told ESPN. “He’s announcing. He’s still involved. He’s still trying to make things right in our game, with Congress or whomever. He ain’t going nowhere. This dude loves it, and he is going to be part of it for a long time. The game is better with him in it. I just have so much respect for him.
“He’s just not coaching anymore, and I don’t get any more chances to beat him.”
Only 48, Smart is far from finished. In fact, he might just be getting started. And not that he really cares, but with Saban retired, Smart has become the face of college football (at least from a coaching standpoint), and in many respects, one of the sport’s most salient voices. He’s the co-chair of the NCAA Football Rules Committee and the architect of a football machine that has produced more NFL first-round draft picks (17) than Smart has had losses (16) in eight seasons at Georgia.
“He understands what’s good for the game, what’s bad for the game. He’s on top of the sport right now,” said Dan Lanning, who was Smart’s defensive coordinator before becoming Oregon’s head coach two years ago. “He’s separated himself and put himself in a category of his own.”
But Smart wants no part of the Saban comparisons, and with good reason. Smart said probably nobody has impacted college football more than Saban, and that the precedent Saban set on the field is something everyone, himself included, will be chasing for a long time.
“We’ve been really good the last few years and had a lot of success and I’m certainly thankful for that. But in no way, shape or form does that put me on the pedestal or the statue that he was on,” Smart said. “I think there’s a group of people out there leading their programs who are really good coaches, and they’re lucky to have the programs that they do.
“But I don’t see it as a one-person spot or role or whatever word you want to use for it right now, not with him gone. I see it as a lot of guys out there competing and seeing who’s going to be the best and who’s going to have the next run — if there is one.”
With Saban’s phenomenal career at Alabama over, it’s Smart’s time to be front and center in the pressure cooker, and it will be fascinating to see how his image, job and life change — if they change at all — with his nemesis and mentor no longer coaching. Those who know Smart best suggest he has already laid the pathway to continued success.
“Nobody had more of a front-row seat to how Coach [Saban] did it than Kirby,” said Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, who was the offensive coordinator on Alabama’s 2015 national championship team when Smart was the defensive coordinator.
“You see a lot of what made [Saban] so great in what Kirby’s doing at Georgia, the way they recruit, the development of players, the organization, the size, length and physicality of the players. A lot of people who’ve come through there have tried to copy [Saban’s] model. As you’ve seen, it’s a lot easier said than done. It’s also the reason very few of us ever beat him, even Kirby.”
BARRY ODOM, NOW the coach at UNLV, entered the SEC head-coaching octagon at Missouri in 2016, the same year Smart was hired at Georgia, both taking the reins at their alma maters. Odom made it four years before being fired. Smart replaced Mark Richt after working under Saban for 10 consecutive seasons, including with the Miami Dolphins in 2006.
Odom said Smart is too focused on what’s right in front of him to let anything change him or the way he runs his program.
“He doesn’t have any blind spots. He’s elite, and I think he’ll go down in the history of college football as one of the best coaches ever,” Odom said. “And the crazy thing is there’s no drop-off. He has done it every single year.”
Georgia is the only team in the country to be ranked in the top seven of the final AP poll each of the past seven seasons, and Smart has been at his best in some of the biggest games. He has won five straight AP top-five matchups, one shy of the longest such streak ever by a head coach. Lou Holtz won six straight from 1988-90 at Notre Dame, and Saban won six in a row from 2017-18.
Before taking over the Bulldogs, Smart had several chances to leave Alabama for other jobs while working for Saban. When Gus Malzahn was hired at Auburn prior to the 2013 season, there was support on the Plains to hire Smart, especially from former coach Pat Dye, but Smart had promised Saban he would stay on as defensive coordinator through the national championship game. Then-Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs and the search committee were uncomfortable with the thought of the new coach at Auburn staying at rival Alabama for another month and helping lead the Tide to a national title.
There were other opportunities, too. Smart was South Carolina’s top target to fill its vacancy following the 2015 season after Steve Spurrier resigned midseason and was meeting with representatives from the school the day Richt was fired as Georgia’s head coach. Heading into the 2012 season, he was the front-runner at Southern Miss but withdrew his name from consideration. Richt even made a lucrative offer to lure Smart back to Georgia to be his defensive coordinator in 2011.
“Kirby’s done as good a job as anybody in college football, and he was patient and smart when he was [at Alabama] to wait for the right job,” Saban said. “Kirby had the right perspective on things. So many coaches take jobs because they think, whether it’s money or the title, that it’s going to promote their career. The only thing that promotes your career is winning, and we were in a great position here to continue winning and having really good defenses.
“Some guys aren’t patient enough to do that, but Kirby was and it paid off for him. He got what is probably the best job in the SEC and made it even better.”
It wasn’t a total rebuild for Smart as Richt had averaged nearly 10 wins a season, but getting the players to buy in to his way of doing things didn’t happen overnight. Georgia lost five games his first season, including losses to Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt.
“I wanted more than relevance. I wanted dominance,” Smart said of his mindset when taking the Georgia job. “I wanted to be consistent. I wanted to be competing for national championships and be very consistent, and that’s the one thing that I’m most proud of, the consistency that we’ve shown.”
Going back to his playing days, Smart has usually gotten what he has wanted. His former teammates and his coach at Georgia, Jim Donnan, never doubted Smart had the right temperament, intelligence and savvy to take a perennial top-20 program under Richt to the level where it would start stacking up championship trophies. Richt’s teams won at least 10 games in four of his final five seasons, but Georgia’s last SEC championship was in 2005. Smart was the running backs coach on that team, and it was also a productive year for him away from football. He met his wife, Mary Beth, who was working in the athletic association’s business office and played basketball at Georgia.
Donnan, who lives in Athens and remains close to the program, remembers seeing Smart, then a sophomore, tutor future Pro Football Hall of Famer Champ Bailey on the practice field when Bailey was a freshman in 1996.
“Kirby knew everything, what guys at every position were supposed to do. He was outgoing and demanding,” said Donnan, who gave Smart his coaching start in 1999 as an administrative assistant. Donnan took over as Georgia’s coach in 1996 after Ray Goff was fired. Smart had just finished his freshman season under Goff, and Donnan immediately knew he had a special leader in Smart.
“When you take over a program, there’s always going to be some doubters among the players that were there with the other coach,” Donnan said. “But right away, Kirby was very good about adjusting to me and not saying, ‘Hey, we didn’t used to do it that way.’ He made sure nobody else did either, and basically said, ‘Get on or get off.’ Even as a second-year player, he had the other guys’ respect.”
Matt Stinchcomb, now a television analyst for ESPN, was a two-time All-America offensive tackle at Georgia and played all four seasons (1995-98) with Smart.
“You’re dealing with an incredibly driven, high-capacity, high-horsepower guy who’s on go every second of every day,” Stinchcomb said. “He was the same way as a player, very demanding and forthright, and would communicate it whether you liked what he said or not, and I do think that has served him well in this capacity.
“I don’t think that he is careless with how he communicates, but he won’t let the importance of a message be diminished by how it might be received. If it needs to be said, it’s going to get said.”
Smart reminds his players often that humility in the SEC is only a week away. Two weeks ago, Georgia looked very beatable in a sluggish 13-12 win at Kentucky, and that might have been the perfect teaching moment for Smart as he got his team ready for Alabama during a bye week. The Tide have a chance to win their ninth game in the teams’ past 10 meetings, this time with first-year coach Kalen DeBoer at the helm. Smart (28-12) and DeBoer (8-2) are the only two current coaches in the SEC with winning records against teams that finished the season ranked in the final AP poll.
“The wind blows pretty hard up there at the top,” Stinchcomb said. “I don’t see [the Bulldogs] toppling, but when you grow the beast the way Kirby has, it only gets harder.”
It’s exactly what Smart signed up for when he took the job. He was undaunted by the gaudy expectations at a place that many around college football considered one of the sport’s biggest underachievers given how long it had been since Georgia last won a national championship — 1980 with Herschel Walker leading the way.
Perhaps the only other coach in the past two decades to walk in under that kind of pressure at his alma mater was Jim Harbaugh when he returned to Michigan in 2015.
Even Harbaugh didn’t match Smart’s early success, especially in the games that mattered most. Harbaugh lost five straight to rival Ohio State, which put a damper on his three 10-win seasons in his first five years in Ann Arbor. But he finally broke through and beat Ohio State each of his final three seasons, winning the Big Ten all three years and the national title in 2023.
“The thing about Kirby is he’s won so much so fast,” said North Carolina’s Mack Brown, who was at Texas eight years before winning a national championship. “Coach [Barry] Switzer said it best. He said that you create a monster, and it’s hard to keep that monster fed because he gets hungry.”
Last Saturday, an ESPN reporter was with Switzer at the Oklahoma-Tennessee game in Norman, Oklahoma, when a fan asked him, “I saw Coach Saban said college football is going to the dogs. What’s he talking about?”
“I think he was talking about Georgia,” Switzer said, laughing. “They’re beating everybody’s ass.”
JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY who came through the Alabama program when Saban and Smart were there together will tell you that Smart is probably the most like Saban of any of his former assistants.
And, yet, Smart didn’t try to be a Saban clone.
“If you were going to replicate [Saban], Kirby would be the one,” said Arkansas State athletic director Jeff Purinton, who came to Alabama in 2007 with Saban and worked as closely as anybody with him outside the football staff as associate athletic director for football communications.
“Think about how long and how much those two were together going back to when Kirby was at LSU with [Saban] in 2004. They were in the defensive back room together every day, both relentless recruiters. They’re a lot alike, but Kirby was also going to be his own guy and put his stamp on it.”
And for the record, Smart was always on Saban’s team in the staff’s lunchtime 3-on-3 basketball games.
“I was the damn commissioner. I picked the teams,” Saban said.
Smart said being able to use Saban’s blueprint was important, but joked “not as important as having good players and good facilities.”
His feel for his alma mater, Georgia’s geographic footprint for recruiting and the history of the program provided Smart advantages that a lot of former Saban assistants didn’t necessarily have when they landed head jobs.
“There are a lot of positives about this place that some of those other folks didn’t have, but I think you get comfortable in your own skin and you make decisions on things you want to do,” Smart said. “I definitely think I’ve changed during the time I’ve been here and it’s not as similar to Alabama as it was when I first got here. But even Nick evolved every year I was there.
“You’ve got to. You either evolve or you die, and we’ve certainly done that here.”
Smart, whose father, Sonny, was a high school football coach and mother, Sharon, was an English teacher, has been willing to listen and accept new ideas, even though he can be unbending on some of the most minute details.
“I like input. I like smart people around me,” Smart said. “It’s not a dictatorship deal. You make good decisions when you have good people around you.”
Just as Saban worked closely with sports psychologist Kevin Elko for two decades, Smart brought in Drew Brannon, a sports psychologist partnered with AMPLOS and based in Greenville, South Carolina, in 2020. Brannon had worked with Georgia athletes in the past, and Smart came out of the 2020 COVID season feeling as if something were missing in his program.
“Don’t underestimate the difference that made,” said Neyland Raper, who was Smart’s director of football operations before taking a job as the Big 12’s director of football operations and competition in July. “We had skull sessions with the players where they got up and told their stories. We formed small groups, and we did surveys with the players, trying to find more connectivity. You could see it transforming.
“Clemson was always the beacon of culture and Alabama the beacon of talent, and we moved to where we were somewhere in the middle ground. It’s worked because in this era of NIL and the money being paid, you wouldn’t believe how many kids who are really good players take a discount to come to Georgia. But, hey, that’s why they’re winning because players aren’t going there just for the money.”
For all the success on the field, it has been a turbulent year and a half off the field for Smart and the Georgia program. Players have continued to run afoul of the law with driving-related incidents, even after a fatal crash in January 2023 where recruiting staff member Chandler LeCroy and former player Devin Willock were killed while racing a car driven by star defensive lineman Jalen Carter. Both cars were traveling at more than 100 mph, and police said alcohol was involved in the crash.
There have been at least 20 arrests or citations involving players for driving-related violations, including DUI, speeding and reckless driving. Two of the most recent players to be arrested — running back Trevor Etienne (a DUI charge that was pleaded down) and cornerback Daniel Harris (a reckless driving charge after police said he was clocked at 106 mph) — missed playing time. Etienne was suspended for the season opener against Clemson, and Harris was held out of the win over Kentucky two weeks ago.
Smart said the issues have been addressed repeatedly and that punishment, including taking away players’ NIL money, has been doled out even if it’s not announced publicly.
“I’ll say what I’ve been saying, and that is that we’ve worked very hard with our administration to try to prevent it and stop it, and most importantly, keep everybody safe,” Smart said. “We’ve got to find a way to do that.”
On the field, what has separated Georgia, winner of 42 straight regular-season games under Smart, is the same thing that fueled Alabama’s dominance under Saban.
“We worked our ass off in recruiting,” Saban said. “We got good players and then we did a good job of developing the players. If you look at recent history, Georgia is having a No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 recruiting class every year, and they’re doing a great job of developing those really good players. So the combination of those two things has put them in the position to be one of the dominant programs in the country, probably the most dominant.”
Quarterback Carson Beck said the competition and depth of talent on the practice field has been the secret sauce under Smart, and it was the same way with Saban at Alabama. Smart squeezes out the uncompetitive, those players who simply aren’t a fit.
“If you’re afraid of competition, Georgia is the wrong place for you,” Beck said. “And if you don’t want to be coached hard and coached that way every single day, Coach Smart is the wrong coach for you.”
Practices at Alabama under Saban weren’t for the squeamish. He was constantly on the move, barking at coaches and players alike, and his way of getting his point across wouldn’t have been rated PG. Smart is the same way, only he has a microphone, and his voice reverberates — especially once the trees begin to lose their leaves in the fall — throughout the Five Points neighborhood behind the Georgia practice fields.
“I mean, it starts from the top down,” Beck said. “That’s every big business, every team, and Coach [Smart] is the pinnacle. There’s no letup. He’s at the top and it’s going to work all the way down.”
Smart’s personality and connection with his players have shown through loudly (and with explicit language) in videos of his impassioned locker room speeches that have appeared on social media in recent years.
“It’s like any family,” he said. “You’re most honest with the people you care the most about.”
Family is important to Smart. He allowed co-defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, one of his closest confidants, to transition to an analyst’s role, freeing up Muschamp and his wife, Carol, to travel on weekends to watch their son, Whit, play at Vanderbilt. Smart has made similar arrangements so assistant coaches could be at their kids’ activities.
“When Kirby’s not in the football building or recruiting, he’s with his family,” Donnan said.
Smart’s penchant for having a hand in everything that touches his program is renowned. As control freaks go in the coaching ranks, and there are many, Smart is at or near the top. And if you think Smart is all-knowing when it comes to his football team, Donnan said you ought to see him at one of his three kids’ sporting events. His youngest son, Andrew, played in the Little League World Series this summer.
“He’s a good dad, and he can tell you everything about every kid on the team, knows all their strengths and weaknesses,” Donnan said. “I mean, he’s talking about the left fielder, knows which kids won’t swing the bat, which ones go after bad pitches.
“He doesn’t miss a whole lot.”
But, then, he learned from the best.
Sports
Kiley McDaniel’s favorite Day 1 draft picks, biggest surprises and best available Day 2 prospects
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Kiley McDaniel
With Day 1 of the 2025 MLB draft complete, it’s time to look at which picks in the first round stood out most.
After weeks of speculation about the various directions the Washington Nationals could go with the No. 1 pick, they surprised the industry by taking Oklahoma high school shortstop Eli Willits — and the Los Angeles Angels followed up with a surprising pick of their own at No. 2 by taking UC Santa Barbara pitcher Tyler Bremner
Though the nature of the baseball draft means that some of the picks we aren’t quite sure about on Day 1 will become clearer when we see how teams spread their bonus allotment around later in the draft, here are the early picks I liked the most and some eye-opening selections along with the top players still available entering Day 2.
Five favorite moves
Mariners and Pirates get their guys
The buzz leading up to the draft was that Kade Anderson was atop the Mariners’ draft board and Seth Hernandez was the top target (after Willits, who wasn’t going to get there) of the Pirates. Seattle was the other team taking a long look at Hernandez, but the shenanigans at the top two picks (more on that later) means that both Seattle and Pittsburgh got their preferred arms.
A’s select Arnold and Taylor
The Athletics had only two picks on Day 1 but received excellent values at each. Jamie Arnold was the top prospect in the draft entering the season and seemed primed to go somewhere between No. 2 and No. 8 after an uneven season. He somehow was the prospect left holding the short straw, falling to the 11th pick. Devin Taylor was in the mix at multiple picks in the comp round but lasted five selections into the second round.
Twins embrace risk with Quick and Young
The Twins took two hit-first college infielders as their first picks last year (Kaelen Culpepper and Kyle DeBarge), took another one in the 2023 second round (Luke Keaschall), and two more in the top two rounds in 2022 (Brooks Lee, Tanner Schobel) — and also took one with their first pick this year in Marek Houston.
What interested me though is what Minnesota did after that, taking big swings with the upside of Riley Quick (four potential plus pitches but below-average command) and Quentin Young (80-grade power potential with big questions on contact rate).
Phillies try to jump the reliever trade market?
Gage Wood has a chance to start long term but can also go straight to the upper minors — if not the big leagues — and potentially help the bullpen later this season, like a trade deadline addition. The Phillies’ next pick, Cade Obermueller, is another possible starter who also could move quickly as a lefty turning 22 later this month with two knockout pitches in his fastball/slider combo. Odds are good that at least one of them can provide big league value in the next 12 months if Philly wants to utilize them that way.
The Red Sox land Witherspoon, Phillips and Eyanson
The Red Sox are interested in creating more pitching depth and selected a number of interesting arms on Day 1. Kyson Witherspoon had a lot of interest in the top 10, but the Red Sox got him at No. 15.
He’ll need to sharpen his execution a notch and his short arm action is unique, but there’s midrotation upside. Marcus Phillips has a chance to start but could also bring another distinctive look as a late-inning arm with four plus pitches from a low slot and a triple-digit fastball. Anthony Eyanson is a different sort, with fringy fastball velocity but standout command along with a slider and splitter that keep hitters off-balance.
Five eye-openers
Eli Willits at No. 1
The buzz ahead of the draft was that there were three players in play for the top pick and Willits was my third-ranked player in the class, so the same group is what I would’ve been considering — and I love Willits as a player. The bonus will be a factor in evaluating how successful this pick will be viewed — I’ll guess it starts with an eight — but I think this will be seen as a solid decision, as long as Kade Anderson or Ethan Holliday don’t become stars.
Tyler Bremner at No. 2
The biggest piece of late buzz I was hearing is that Bremner was in play at No. 3 to the Mariners. I didn’t hear his name at all at No. 2 so that made this pick the first shocker in the draft.
Bremner was considered in this area (on a deal) because he could easily be the best pitcher in this class — but only if he can develop a better slider, which isn’t a small if. The Angels seem to have a thought about how to solve this, and how he progresses will be one of the more followed storylines of this draft.
Tigers take Yost and Oliveto
I like both players, but it’s fascinating that these two and the most-rumored prep hitter tied to Detroit that they didn’t take (Coy James, who had a tough summer) were all missing strong 2024 summer performances.
Jordan Yost and Michael Oliveto were the only two prep position players in the first-round mix who weren’t in the major national events on the summer circuit, thus creating a lot of uncertainty about how to project them.
The Tigers are right to assume this could create a potential quick gain in value if Yost and Oliveto can perform early in their pro careers, but I don’t remember seeing a team double down on lack of summer exposure in the early rounds.
Orioles take two catchers in the first round, and two pitchers in the second
It’s certainly a bit odd that the Orioles took two college catchers with their first two picks after taking another one (Ethan Anderson) in the second round last year. Obviously, teams don’t draft for big league need — the O’s already have Adley Rutschman — and they need at least two catchers at all four full season minor league affiliates, it’s just odd to see them invest in this position early multiple times. And after all of the position players they have drafted under Mike Elias, they did sneak in two arms on Day 1 with Joseph Dzierwa (a command-forward lefty) and J.T. Quinn (one of my favorite college relievers with the traits to start in pro ball).
Guardians lean into power
The Guardians often draft, or sign internationally, hit-first players who are often underpowered, with Steven Kwan a prominent example. They swerved a lot this year, taking Jace LaViolette with their first pick (I compare him to Cody Bellinger or Joey Gallo; he hit .258 this season) and Nolan Schubart (24% strikeout rate, 22% in-zone whiff rate) with their fifth pick on Day 1. Those two have big power and strong pull/lift rates, and LaViolette has the athleticism to play center field, so there’s real talent, it’s just not usually the type that the Guardians have targeted.
Best available for Day 2
Listed by top 250 draft rankings
43. Mason Neville, OF, Oregon
44. Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (Ind.)
53. Josiah Hartshorn, LF, Orange Lutheran HS (Calif.)
55. Brock Sell, CF, Tokay HS (Calif.)
61. Jack Bauer, LHP, Lincoln Way East HS (Ill.)
69. Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (N.C.)
70. Alec Blair, CF, De La Salle HS (Calif.)
71. Mason Pike, RHP, Puyallup HS (Wash.)
72. Cam Appenzeller, LHP, Glenwood HS (Ill.)
73. Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (N.C.)
The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.
The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.
We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.
A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?
Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.
Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.
Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.
What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?
Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.
Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.
Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.
Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?
Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.
Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.
What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?
Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.
Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.
Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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