Oil alliance OPEC+ zeroes in on group compliance after postponing output hike
Dilara Irem Sancar | Anadolu | Getty Images
The OPEC+ alliance is once more cracking down on group compliance with oil output cuts, as it presses ahead with a three-pronged plan of formal and voluntary production trims.
Two OPEC+ delegates, who could only comment anonymously because of the sensitivity of the talks, told CNBC that the coalition has sharpened its focus on the conformity of its members with their output pledges, amid repeat overproduction from heavyweight members such as Iraq and Kazakhstan.
Russia, whose barrels are sanctioned in the West and transported with lower visibility across a shadow fleet, has also at times exceeded its assigned quota under the alliance’s formal policy, one of the sources said.
Eight OPEC+ members, including kingpin Saudi Arabia, were due to begin returning 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts to the market starting in October. Earlier this month, they postponed this phaseout to start in December instead. OPEC+ nations are operating two other production declines: under official policy, they will produce a combined 39.725 million bpd next year. The same aforementioned eight members are separately curbing their output by another 1.7 million bpd throughout 2025, also on a voluntary basis.
Undercompliance has been a repeat bane of the OPEC+ alliance, casting a shadow over the credibility of its intentions to cut output – at a time of market uncertainty exacerbated by war in the hydrocarbon-rich Middle East, recent stock sell-offs and a fragile post-Covid recovery in the world’s top crude importer, China.
Oil prices have remained subdued for the better part of the year and dropped sharply on Thursday, following a Financial Times report stating that OPEC+ de facto leader Saudi Arabia was prepared to suffer through a low-price environment and abandon an unofficial $100 per barrel price target to bolster its output after December.
Brent crude futures with November expiry were trading at $71.44 per barrel at 2:30 p.m. London time, down 0.17% from the Thursday settlement. The front-month November Nymex WTI contract was at $67.75 per barrel, flat from the previous session’s close.
“I would read it more as the Saudis sending some warning to the cheaters within OPEC. Because I think Saudi Arabia has seen most of the burden of the production cuts,” Carole Nakhle, founder and CEO of Crystol Energy, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy Friday, referring to the FT report.
Speaking of the group’s possible approach to price targeting, Nakhle added, “Of course, the higher the better for them, but nothing has been set in stone.”
OPEC+ ministers, including Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, have previously insisted that their policies target diminishing global stocks rather than an explicit price, although decisions to tighten supplies typically offer support to crude futures in the long term. But several member countries, including the Saudi kingdom, underpin their annual budgets on the assumption of a fiscal break-even price — which the International Monetary Fund estimates must hit $96.20 for Riyadh to meet its obligations this year.
Riyadh is locked in an extensive and costly program spanning 14 giga-projects, including the futuristic desert development Neom, to materialize Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambition of economic diversification away from reliance on hydrocarbon revenues.
Despite the economic pressures of enforcing the Vision 2030 program, Saudi Arabia has yet to change its OPEC+ approach and does not target an explicit oil price, one of the OPEC+ sources told CNBC, noting that Riyadh can reshape its budget or shore it up through alternative, non-oil revenues.
Earlier this month, Saudi Minister for Investment Khalid al-Falih pushed back against lingering skepticism over the country’s economic diversification plan, touting “green shoring” investment opportunities to lure foreign financing.
The prospect of Saudi Arabia weaponizing its vast production capacity to settle OPEC+ disputes is not without precedent. Back in 2020, Riyadh and Moscow engaged in a weeks-long price war in the wake of the abrupt but fleeting dissolution of the OPEC+ alliance, flooding the market at a time of already excess supply and dried-up demand amid the spreading Covid-19 pandemic — and briefly ushering WTI futures into negative territory.
OPEC+ receives monthly production figures — which assist it to calculate member compliance — from seven independent secondary sources. The coalition’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, a technical group that oversees OPEC+ conformity, is due to next meet on Oct. 2.
Hyundai offered a first look at the hot hatch earlier this week after unveiling the Concept Three, its first compact EV under the IONIQ family. The new EV, set to arrive as the IONIQ 3, already has a sporty, hot hatch look, but that could be just the start.
Hyundai has a new EV hot hatch in the making
The Concept Three took the spotlight at IAA Mobility in Munich with a daring new look from Hyundai. Based on its new “Art of Steel” design, the concept is a stark contrast to the Hyundai vehicles on the road today.
Hyundai took the “Aero Hatch” design to the next level, deeming it “a new typology that reimagines the compact EV silhouette.” And that it does.
When it arrives in production form in mid-2026, it’s expected to take the IONIQ 3 name as a smaller, more affordable sibling to the IONIQ 5.
Hyundai is set to unveil the electric hatchback next spring with an official launch planned in Europe in September 2026. According to Hyundai’s European boss, Xavier Martinet, the IONIQ 3 could make for the perfect EV hot hatch.
Martinet hinted that the IONIQ 3 could receive the “N” treatment, telling Auto Express that “The concept is quite sporty, and obviously you have heritage with N brand.” Hyundai’s European boss added that “it’s a fair topic to consider.”
Although it doesn’t sound too convincing, Hyundai’s head of design, Simon Loasby, called it “an opportunity.” Loasby was quick to add, “We’re not calling it N, it’s not approved yet.”
“But I think everyone in the company is realising what Europe needs, and that’s compact hot hatches, so it’s a topic for discussion,” Hyundai’s design boss added.
The Concept Three is 4,287 mm long, 1,940 mm wide, and 1,428 mm tall, with a wheelbase of 2,722 mm, or about the size of the Kia EV3 and Volkswagen ID.3. Both of which are set for hot hatch variants.
If the IONIQ 3 N does come to life, it will be the third Hyundai EV to receive the high-performance upgrade, following the IONIQ 5 N and IONIQ 6 N.
The IONIQ 5 N “was just the first lap,” according to Joon Park, vice president of Hyundai’s N Brand Management Group. He told Auto Express that Hyundai is “at the starting line” and plans to apply what it learned from its first EV hot hatch to upcoming models.
If you’re looking for an affordable electric hot hatch, Hyundai already offers one. After Hyundai cut lease prices last month, the IONIQ 5 N is now listed at just $549 per month. That’s $150 less per month than in July.
Want to test one out for yourself? You can use our link to find 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 models in your area (trusted affiliate link).
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The global wind industry is going to hit some unprecedented growth milestones, according to Wood Mackenzie’s Global Wind Power Market Outlook for Q3 2025. The world is on track to add its second terawatt of wind capacity by 2030. To put that in perspective, it took 23 years to install the first terawatt, which was reached in 2023. The second will come in just seven.
Wind is also set for a record-breaking year in 2025. Global additions are expected to reach 170 gigawatts (GW), with more than 70 GW coming online in the last quarter of the year alone. That means Q4 could add more capacity than the total installed in any full year before 2020.
This forecast represents a 13% jump from the previous quarter, primarily driven by explosive onshore growth in China. Global wind capacity is expected to double from 2024 levels by 2032. Outside of China, the industry is also expanding, though on a slower path. Excluding China, the world will reach 1 terawatt in 2031 and double 2024 capacity by 2034.
However, policy uncertainty and the Trump administration’s hostility toward the wind industry, particularly offshore wind, are negatively impacting the US market. Trump’s big bill act (OBBBA), passed in July 2025, ends tax credits after 2027. That’s sparked a rush of projects in the short term, but it drags down the long-term outlook. For the first time, the US has fallen behind India and Germany in forecasted 10-year additions.
“China’s dominance in the wind industry is becoming more pronounced,” said Sasha Bond-Smith, research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “While other established markets struggle with policy uncertainty and economic headwinds, we’re witnessing an unequalled concentration of growth in China that’s reshaping the industry landscape.”
China’s onshore forecast jumped this quarter thanks to rising electricity demand from data centers and electrification. Wind is proving more profitable than solar in liberalized power markets, but China’s offshore wind sector is facing challenges. Sea-use conflicts are slowing or even halting projects already under construction.
Despite those hurdles, Wood Mackenzie now projects that wind could match solar’s power output in China over the forecast period. That would cement wind’s central role in helping the country meet climate goals while keeping up with surging power demand.
Elsewhere, onshore wind remains steady across Europe, Asia Pacific, and emerging markets, with tender results and pipelines supporting progress. Offshore wind is struggling, though. High costs and failed tenders are creating setbacks in Europe and delays in emerging markets. Policymakers are under pressure to rethink contract structures to keep projects moving.
“The wind industry’s most significant transformation in decades continues to unfold,” said Kárys Prado, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “While achieving historic scale, success will depend on how effectively the industry navigates this new geography of growth and adapts to evolving policy landscapes.”
Read more: FERC: Solar + wind made up 91% of new US power generating capacity in H1 2025
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In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss Tesla unveiling its new Megablock product, bunch of new EVs at IAA, the debacle at Hyundai’s plant, and more
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