Stepping out of Nick Saban’s shadow, Kirby Smart takes over as dean of SEC coaches
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Chris Low, ESPN Senior Writer
ONE OF THE last things Kirby Smart said to Nick Saban last December at midfield of Mercedes-Benz Stadium following the SEC championship game proved to be prophetic.
“You can’t keep doing this much longer,” Smart joked with his former boss.
Alabama and Saban had just beaten Georgia and Smart — again — and five weeks later, Saban’s legendary coaching career would come to an end when he announced his retirement after 17 seasons and six national championships in Tuscaloosa. Before leading Georgia on a remarkable run of its own, Smart was part of four of those national titles as Saban’s defensive coordinator.
Granted, Saban hasn’t gone far, joining ESPN’s “College GameDay” crew. But he has traded the sideline stage for the TV stage, and for his suite during Alabama home games, which is where he will be Saturday night when Smart leads his No. 2 Bulldogs into Bryant-Denny Stadium to face No. 4 Alabama in one of the most anticipated matchups of the season (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+).
In eight seasons under Smart, Georgia has won two national titles, played for a third and won 13 or more games in each of the past three seasons. For all of Smart’s dizzying success, his only kryptonite was Saban. In fact, the last coach other than Saban to beat Smart was Dan Mullen at Florida in 2020, and Mullen is now an ESPN analyst as well.
Not counting Smart’s first season at Georgia in 2016, he has lost just 11 games. Five of those were to Saban, although Smart’s only win against Saban, in 2021, sent the Bulldogs to their first national championship in 41 years when they beat the Crimson Tide 33-18 in Indianapolis. Georgia repeated as national champs the next year, the first team to do so since Alabama in 2011 and 2012, and the Bulldogs won an SEC-record 29 straight games before losing to Alabama and Saban last season in the SEC championship game, costing them a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Who could blame Smart if he were to steal a quick glance across the field during pregame warmups Saturday to make sure Saban isn’t standing on the other sideline, still casting a shadow over Smart and the rest of the sport?
“I feel like he’s still in it, so I don’t really see it as there being a shadow,” Smart told ESPN. “He’s announcing. He’s still involved. He’s still trying to make things right in our game, with Congress or whomever. He ain’t going nowhere. This dude loves it, and he is going to be part of it for a long time. The game is better with him in it. I just have so much respect for him.
“He’s just not coaching anymore, and I don’t get any more chances to beat him.”
Only 48, Smart is far from finished. In fact, he might just be getting started. And not that he really cares, but with Saban retired, Smart has become the face of college football (at least from a coaching standpoint), and in many respects, one of the sport’s most salient voices. He’s the co-chair of the NCAA Football Rules Committee and the architect of a football machine that has produced more NFL first-round draft picks (17) than Smart has had losses (16) in eight seasons at Georgia.
“He understands what’s good for the game, what’s bad for the game. He’s on top of the sport right now,” said Dan Lanning, who was Smart’s defensive coordinator before becoming Oregon’s head coach two years ago. “He’s separated himself and put himself in a category of his own.”
But Smart wants no part of the Saban comparisons, and with good reason. Smart said probably nobody has impacted college football more than Saban, and that the precedent Saban set on the field is something everyone, himself included, will be chasing for a long time.
“We’ve been really good the last few years and had a lot of success and I’m certainly thankful for that. But in no way, shape or form does that put me on the pedestal or the statue that he was on,” Smart said. “I think there’s a group of people out there leading their programs who are really good coaches, and they’re lucky to have the programs that they do.
“But I don’t see it as a one-person spot or role or whatever word you want to use for it right now, not with him gone. I see it as a lot of guys out there competing and seeing who’s going to be the best and who’s going to have the next run — if there is one.”
With Saban’s phenomenal career at Alabama over, it’s Smart’s time to be front and center in the pressure cooker, and it will be fascinating to see how his image, job and life change — if they change at all — with his nemesis and mentor no longer coaching. Those who know Smart best suggest he has already laid the pathway to continued success.
“Nobody had more of a front-row seat to how Coach [Saban] did it than Kirby,” said Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, who was the offensive coordinator on Alabama’s 2015 national championship team when Smart was the defensive coordinator.
“You see a lot of what made [Saban] so great in what Kirby’s doing at Georgia, the way they recruit, the development of players, the organization, the size, length and physicality of the players. A lot of people who’ve come through there have tried to copy [Saban’s] model. As you’ve seen, it’s a lot easier said than done. It’s also the reason very few of us ever beat him, even Kirby.”
BARRY ODOM, NOW the coach at UNLV, entered the SEC head-coaching octagon at Missouri in 2016, the same year Smart was hired at Georgia, both taking the reins at their alma maters. Odom made it four years before being fired. Smart replaced Mark Richt after working under Saban for 10 consecutive seasons, including with the Miami Dolphins in 2006.
Odom said Smart is too focused on what’s right in front of him to let anything change him or the way he runs his program.
“He doesn’t have any blind spots. He’s elite, and I think he’ll go down in the history of college football as one of the best coaches ever,” Odom said. “And the crazy thing is there’s no drop-off. He has done it every single year.”
Georgia is the only team in the country to be ranked in the top seven of the final AP poll each of the past seven seasons, and Smart has been at his best in some of the biggest games. He has won five straight AP top-five matchups, one shy of the longest such streak ever by a head coach. Lou Holtz won six straight from 1988-90 at Notre Dame, and Saban won six in a row from 2017-18.
Before taking over the Bulldogs, Smart had several chances to leave Alabama for other jobs while working for Saban. When Gus Malzahn was hired at Auburn prior to the 2013 season, there was support on the Plains to hire Smart, especially from former coach Pat Dye, but Smart had promised Saban he would stay on as defensive coordinator through the national championship game. Then-Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs and the search committee were uncomfortable with the thought of the new coach at Auburn staying at rival Alabama for another month and helping lead the Tide to a national title.
There were other opportunities, too. Smart was South Carolina’s top target to fill its vacancy following the 2015 season after Steve Spurrier resigned midseason and was meeting with representatives from the school the day Richt was fired as Georgia’s head coach. Heading into the 2012 season, he was the front-runner at Southern Miss but withdrew his name from consideration. Richt even made a lucrative offer to lure Smart back to Georgia to be his defensive coordinator in 2011.
“Kirby’s done as good a job as anybody in college football, and he was patient and smart when he was [at Alabama] to wait for the right job,” Saban said. “Kirby had the right perspective on things. So many coaches take jobs because they think, whether it’s money or the title, that it’s going to promote their career. The only thing that promotes your career is winning, and we were in a great position here to continue winning and having really good defenses.
“Some guys aren’t patient enough to do that, but Kirby was and it paid off for him. He got what is probably the best job in the SEC and made it even better.”
It wasn’t a total rebuild for Smart as Richt had averaged nearly 10 wins a season, but getting the players to buy in to his way of doing things didn’t happen overnight. Georgia lost five games his first season, including losses to Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt.
“I wanted more than relevance. I wanted dominance,” Smart said of his mindset when taking the Georgia job. “I wanted to be consistent. I wanted to be competing for national championships and be very consistent, and that’s the one thing that I’m most proud of, the consistency that we’ve shown.”
Going back to his playing days, Smart has usually gotten what he has wanted. His former teammates and his coach at Georgia, Jim Donnan, never doubted Smart had the right temperament, intelligence and savvy to take a perennial top-20 program under Richt to the level where it would start stacking up championship trophies. Richt’s teams won at least 10 games in four of his final five seasons, but Georgia’s last SEC championship was in 2005. Smart was the running backs coach on that team, and it was also a productive year for him away from football. He met his wife, Mary Beth, who was working in the athletic association’s business office and played basketball at Georgia.
Donnan, who lives in Athens and remains close to the program, remembers seeing Smart, then a sophomore, tutor future Pro Football Hall of Famer Champ Bailey on the practice field when Bailey was a freshman in 1996.
“Kirby knew everything, what guys at every position were supposed to do. He was outgoing and demanding,” said Donnan, who gave Smart his coaching start in 1999 as an administrative assistant. Donnan took over as Georgia’s coach in 1996 after Ray Goff was fired. Smart had just finished his freshman season under Goff, and Donnan immediately knew he had a special leader in Smart.
“When you take over a program, there’s always going to be some doubters among the players that were there with the other coach,” Donnan said. “But right away, Kirby was very good about adjusting to me and not saying, ‘Hey, we didn’t used to do it that way.’ He made sure nobody else did either, and basically said, ‘Get on or get off.’ Even as a second-year player, he had the other guys’ respect.”
Matt Stinchcomb, now a television analyst for ESPN, was a two-time All-America offensive tackle at Georgia and played all four seasons (1995-98) with Smart.
“You’re dealing with an incredibly driven, high-capacity, high-horsepower guy who’s on go every second of every day,” Stinchcomb said. “He was the same way as a player, very demanding and forthright, and would communicate it whether you liked what he said or not, and I do think that has served him well in this capacity.
“I don’t think that he is careless with how he communicates, but he won’t let the importance of a message be diminished by how it might be received. If it needs to be said, it’s going to get said.”
Smart reminds his players often that humility in the SEC is only a week away. Two weeks ago, Georgia looked very beatable in a sluggish 13-12 win at Kentucky, and that might have been the perfect teaching moment for Smart as he got his team ready for Alabama during a bye week. The Tide have a chance to win their ninth game in the teams’ past 10 meetings, this time with first-year coach Kalen DeBoer at the helm. Smart (28-12) and DeBoer (8-2) are the only two current coaches in the SEC with winning records against teams that finished the season ranked in the final AP poll.
“The wind blows pretty hard up there at the top,” Stinchcomb said. “I don’t see [the Bulldogs] toppling, but when you grow the beast the way Kirby has, it only gets harder.”
It’s exactly what Smart signed up for when he took the job. He was undaunted by the gaudy expectations at a place that many around college football considered one of the sport’s biggest underachievers given how long it had been since Georgia last won a national championship — 1980 with Herschel Walker leading the way.
Perhaps the only other coach in the past two decades to walk in under that kind of pressure at his alma mater was Jim Harbaugh when he returned to Michigan in 2015.
Even Harbaugh didn’t match Smart’s early success, especially in the games that mattered most. Harbaugh lost five straight to rival Ohio State, which put a damper on his three 10-win seasons in his first five years in Ann Arbor. But he finally broke through and beat Ohio State each of his final three seasons, winning the Big Ten all three years and the national title in 2023.
“The thing about Kirby is he’s won so much so fast,” said North Carolina’s Mack Brown, who was at Texas eight years before winning a national championship. “Coach [Barry] Switzer said it best. He said that you create a monster, and it’s hard to keep that monster fed because he gets hungry.”
Last Saturday, an ESPN reporter was with Switzer at the Oklahoma-Tennessee game in Norman, Oklahoma, when a fan asked him, “I saw Coach Saban said college football is going to the dogs. What’s he talking about?”
“I think he was talking about Georgia,” Switzer said, laughing. “They’re beating everybody’s ass.”
JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY who came through the Alabama program when Saban and Smart were there together will tell you that Smart is probably the most like Saban of any of his former assistants.
And, yet, Smart didn’t try to be a Saban clone.
“If you were going to replicate [Saban], Kirby would be the one,” said Arkansas State athletic director Jeff Purinton, who came to Alabama in 2007 with Saban and worked as closely as anybody with him outside the football staff as associate athletic director for football communications.
“Think about how long and how much those two were together going back to when Kirby was at LSU with [Saban] in 2004. They were in the defensive back room together every day, both relentless recruiters. They’re a lot alike, but Kirby was also going to be his own guy and put his stamp on it.”
And for the record, Smart was always on Saban’s team in the staff’s lunchtime 3-on-3 basketball games.
“I was the damn commissioner. I picked the teams,” Saban said.
Smart said being able to use Saban’s blueprint was important, but joked “not as important as having good players and good facilities.”
His feel for his alma mater, Georgia’s geographic footprint for recruiting and the history of the program provided Smart advantages that a lot of former Saban assistants didn’t necessarily have when they landed head jobs.
“There are a lot of positives about this place that some of those other folks didn’t have, but I think you get comfortable in your own skin and you make decisions on things you want to do,” Smart said. “I definitely think I’ve changed during the time I’ve been here and it’s not as similar to Alabama as it was when I first got here. But even Nick evolved every year I was there.
“You’ve got to. You either evolve or you die, and we’ve certainly done that here.”
Smart, whose father, Sonny, was a high school football coach and mother, Sharon, was an English teacher, has been willing to listen and accept new ideas, even though he can be unbending on some of the most minute details.
“I like input. I like smart people around me,” Smart said. “It’s not a dictatorship deal. You make good decisions when you have good people around you.”
Just as Saban worked closely with sports psychologist Kevin Elko for two decades, Smart brought in Drew Brannon, a sports psychologist partnered with AMPLOS and based in Greenville, South Carolina, in 2020. Brannon had worked with Georgia athletes in the past, and Smart came out of the 2020 COVID season feeling as if something were missing in his program.
“Don’t underestimate the difference that made,” said Neyland Raper, who was Smart’s director of football operations before taking a job as the Big 12’s director of football operations and competition in July. “We had skull sessions with the players where they got up and told their stories. We formed small groups, and we did surveys with the players, trying to find more connectivity. You could see it transforming.
“Clemson was always the beacon of culture and Alabama the beacon of talent, and we moved to where we were somewhere in the middle ground. It’s worked because in this era of NIL and the money being paid, you wouldn’t believe how many kids who are really good players take a discount to come to Georgia. But, hey, that’s why they’re winning because players aren’t going there just for the money.”
For all the success on the field, it has been a turbulent year and a half off the field for Smart and the Georgia program. Players have continued to run afoul of the law with driving-related incidents, even after a fatal crash in January 2023 where recruiting staff member Chandler LeCroy and former player Devin Willock were killed while racing a car driven by star defensive lineman Jalen Carter. Both cars were traveling at more than 100 mph, and police said alcohol was involved in the crash.
There have been at least 20 arrests or citations involving players for driving-related violations, including DUI, speeding and reckless driving. Two of the most recent players to be arrested — running back Trevor Etienne (a DUI charge that was pleaded down) and cornerback Daniel Harris (a reckless driving charge after police said he was clocked at 106 mph) — missed playing time. Etienne was suspended for the season opener against Clemson, and Harris was held out of the win over Kentucky two weeks ago.
Smart said the issues have been addressed repeatedly and that punishment, including taking away players’ NIL money, has been doled out even if it’s not announced publicly.
“I’ll say what I’ve been saying, and that is that we’ve worked very hard with our administration to try to prevent it and stop it, and most importantly, keep everybody safe,” Smart said. “We’ve got to find a way to do that.”
On the field, what has separated Georgia, winner of 42 straight regular-season games under Smart, is the same thing that fueled Alabama’s dominance under Saban.
“We worked our ass off in recruiting,” Saban said. “We got good players and then we did a good job of developing the players. If you look at recent history, Georgia is having a No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 recruiting class every year, and they’re doing a great job of developing those really good players. So the combination of those two things has put them in the position to be one of the dominant programs in the country, probably the most dominant.”
Quarterback Carson Beck said the competition and depth of talent on the practice field has been the secret sauce under Smart, and it was the same way with Saban at Alabama. Smart squeezes out the uncompetitive, those players who simply aren’t a fit.
“If you’re afraid of competition, Georgia is the wrong place for you,” Beck said. “And if you don’t want to be coached hard and coached that way every single day, Coach Smart is the wrong coach for you.”
Practices at Alabama under Saban weren’t for the squeamish. He was constantly on the move, barking at coaches and players alike, and his way of getting his point across wouldn’t have been rated PG. Smart is the same way, only he has a microphone, and his voice reverberates — especially once the trees begin to lose their leaves in the fall — throughout the Five Points neighborhood behind the Georgia practice fields.
“I mean, it starts from the top down,” Beck said. “That’s every big business, every team, and Coach [Smart] is the pinnacle. There’s no letup. He’s at the top and it’s going to work all the way down.”
Smart’s personality and connection with his players have shown through loudly (and with explicit language) in videos of his impassioned locker room speeches that have appeared on social media in recent years.
“It’s like any family,” he said. “You’re most honest with the people you care the most about.”
Family is important to Smart. He allowed co-defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, one of his closest confidants, to transition to an analyst’s role, freeing up Muschamp and his wife, Carol, to travel on weekends to watch their son, Whit, play at Vanderbilt. Smart has made similar arrangements so assistant coaches could be at their kids’ activities.
“When Kirby’s not in the football building or recruiting, he’s with his family,” Donnan said.
Smart’s penchant for having a hand in everything that touches his program is renowned. As control freaks go in the coaching ranks, and there are many, Smart is at or near the top. And if you think Smart is all-knowing when it comes to his football team, Donnan said you ought to see him at one of his three kids’ sporting events. His youngest son, Andrew, played in the Little League World Series this summer.
“He’s a good dad, and he can tell you everything about every kid on the team, knows all their strengths and weaknesses,” Donnan said. “I mean, he’s talking about the left fielder, knows which kids won’t swing the bat, which ones go after bad pitches.
“He doesn’t miss a whole lot.”
But, then, he learned from the best.
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Bill Connelly
The penultimate week of the college football regular season gave us plenty of entertainment. We got an incredible comeback in Salt Lake City, we got some resounding blowouts, we got a late Heisman push from Diego Pavia and we got the best ending of the season at the Division II level.
We didn’t really get much change, however. No team in the top 14 of the College Football Playoff rankings lost, and of the 16 ranked teams that won, 15 won by double digits and 10 won by at least 20. The ACC gave us more chaos thanks to Georgia Tech’s no-show against Pitt, but it was a rather chaos-free weekend overall.
Luckily, Rivalry Week is on the way, and it usually delivers. We can still squeeze a little bit of chaos out of the 2025 season, so let’s review Week 13 by looking ahead to Week 14. What do we have in store for college football’s best weekend?
For each category below, games are listed in chronological order. All times Eastern.
At-large playoff bids
One thing about all the top teams winning this weekend is: The playoff picture remains extremely unsettled. As a general heuristic, I tend to think of any two-loss SEC or Big Ten team or any one-loss Big 12 or ACC team as safely in the field. But with two weeks remaining, we have more of those teams than we have playoff slots: There are six SEC teams and four Big Ten teams with two or fewer losses, plus two Big 12 teams with one loss. Someone deserving is currently on the outside looking in.
Rivalry Week could alter that picture, of course, though with each of the current top 13 in the CFP rankings favored — 10 by double-digits — that’s not a guarantee.
Friday
No. 6 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (noon, ABC) — SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 13.9 (82% win probability)
No. 12 Utah at Kansas (noon, ESPN) — SP+ projection: Utah by 15.1 (83%)
No. 4 Georgia at No. 16 Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., ABC) — SP+ projection: UGA by 12.9 (79%)
No. 2 Indiana at Purdue (Friday, 7:30 p.m., NBC) — SP+ projection: IU by 33.9 (98%)
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 17 Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ABC) — SP+ projection: A&M by 5.3 (63%)
Six potential at-large teams play Friday, though Indiana, A&M and Georgia are virtually assured of playoff bids at this point. We’ve seen some pundits attempting to will a “The committee might leave Ole Miss out if Lane Kiffin is leaving!” narrative into existence. While I think this is preposterous on its face — Kiffin isn’t the one making the plays for a 10-1 team, and if the committee indeed chose to downgrade the Rebels because of that, we need to tear down the entire committee structure and go back to a formula* — I don’t think the Rebels want to find out what happens if they lose and most of the teams directly below them win.
(* We should go back to a formula anyway, but that’s neither here nor there.)
Utah just barely kept hope alive Saturday. With Joe Jackson and the Kansas State run game playing at an unstoppable level, the Utes gave up points on five straight first-half possessions to fall behind 31-21 at halftime. They responded with a 14-0 burst, but K-State responded with a 16-0 run to seize total control. Jackson’s 24-yard score seemed to put the game almost out of reach, but Tao Johnson returned a 2-point pass 100 yards to make it 47-37.
We were only getting started. Devon Dampier found Larry Simmons for a 20-yard score with 2:47 left, and after a K-State three-and-out (the Wildcats’ first since the first drive of the game), Dampier raced 59 yards on fourth-and-1 to set up his own go-ahead touchdown with 56 seconds remaining. Lander Barton sealed the comeback with an interception.
Saturday
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 18 Michigan (noon, Fox) — SP+ projection: OSU by 14.6 (82%)
No. 13 Miami at Pitt (noon, ABC) — SP+ projection: Miami by 6.0 (65%)
No. 5 Texas Tech at West Virginia (noon, ESPN) — SP+ projection: Tech by 31.5 (98%)
UCF at No. 11 BYU (1 p.m., ESPN2) — SP+ projection: BYU by 19.1 (88%)
No. 7 Oregon at Washington (3:30 p.m., CBS) — SP+ projection: Oregon by 6.7 (66%)
LSU at No. 8 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC) — SP+ projection: OU by 11.7 (77%)
No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Tennessee (3:30 p.m., ESPN) – SP+ projection: UT by 0.7 (52%)
No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (7:30 p.m., ABC) – SP+ projection: Bama by 6.0 (65%)
No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford (10:30 p.m., ESPN) – SP+ projection: Irish by 31.7 (98%)
In a different year, Texas and Michigan could both be in “Pull a Rivalry Week upset, and you’re in” situations. Thanks to Georgia Tech and USC losing, the Longhorns and Wolverines could rank 15th and 16th, respectively, when the new CFP rankings come out Tuesday. That would put them in range, but if Vanderbilt beats Tennessee and if BYU and Notre Dame win blowouts as expected, there just might not be space in the inn.
There are two different ways to root for playoff chaos, I guess. On one hand, you could root for lots of upsets and general nonsense, which is where I tend to lean. That means Go Mississippi State! Go Georgia Tech! Go Michigan! Go Pitt! Et cetera. But upsets might actually clarify the picture a bit in the end, so the other chaos route involves rooting for whatever gives the committee the biggest possible headache. That means Michigan and Texas both pulling upsets, Vanderbilt toppling Tennessee and maybe Ole Miss falling, but chalk winning out otherwise.
Group of 5 playoff bid
Temple at North Texas (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN) — SP+ projection: UNT by 24.0 (93% win probability)
James Madison at Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 3:45 p.m., ESPNU) — SP+ projection: JMU by 21.6 (91%)
Charlotte at No. 24 Tulane (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU) — SP+ projection: Tulane by 33.8 (98%)
Barring extreme chaos — which might open the door for the Mountain West champ — we’re pretty much locked into a two-team battle for the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP slot: James Madison vs. the American Conference champ. We’re exceedingly likely to get a Tulane-North Texas battle for the American title in two weeks, and while it’s hard to say how the rankings might play out (since the committee has only deigned to rank Tulane at the moment, and barely at that), it appears these three teams have a greater than 95% chance among them to make the playoff.
While North Texas put up absurd numbers Saturday against Rice, and Tulane pulled away late against Temple, JMU played with fire against a feisty Washington State team. The Cougars nearly upset two potential playoff teams in recent weeks (Ole Miss, Virginia), and they led JMU until Wayne Knight’s 58-yard burst up the middle with 6:24 left gave the Dukes a 24-20 win. One would think the committee would rank JMU this week, but I’d have ranked them a month ago, so who knows?
Conference title races
SEC
Four teams still have a shot at the SEC title, and their games are all listed in the CFP section above.
• Texas A&M is in the SEC championship game with a win over Texas, but if the Aggies lose they’re probably out unless both Bama and Ole Miss lose.
• Alabama is most likely in with a win over Auburn since the Tide boast a win over Georgia and, in a multiway tie that depends on the “conference opponent winning percentage” tiebreaker, they should have the advantage.
• Georgia is in the clubhouse at 7-1 in SEC play and would win tiebreakers against Ole Miss (because of a head-to-head win) and, if Texas A&M loses, the Aggies (because of the Dawgs’ record against common opponents). But if A&M and Bama both win as favorites (there’s a 41% chance of that, per SP+), the Dawgs are out. I doubt they would mind much.
• Ole Miss probably needs a win plus Bama and A&M losses. (I say “probably” because we still don’t know for sure how the “conference opponent winning percentage” tiebreaker will play out. Giant superconferences can get really messy.)
Big Ten
We probably know what we’re getting in the Big Ten, but it would take only one upset to throw things for a loop. Indiana is unbeaten and needs only to beat Purdue to clinch its first trip to Indianapolis (for a football game, anyway), and since there’s a 98% chance of that happening, that tamps down hopes for major chaos. But if Michigan upsets Ohio State, that likely puts Oregon in if the Ducks win at Washington. If we get double upsets in Ann Arbor and Seattle, however, that puts Michigan in.
There’s an 80% chance of both Indiana and Ohio State winning, per SP+, but Oregon and Michigan both kept hopes alive by taking care of business Saturday. Michigan took a 14-point lead over Maryland early in the second quarter, traded blows with the Terrapins for a little while, then laid the hammer down in a 45-20 win.
Oregon, meanwhile, had to work 60 full minutes against No. 15 USC but got the job done in mature fashion. USC cut the Ducks’ lead to 35-27 early in the fourth quarter, but Oregon responded with an 11-play, nearly six-minute drive to go back up 15. It was a dreadfully penalty-heavy affair — the teams combined for 231 rushing yards and 233 penalty yards — but Oregon was never in serious danger. That all but locked up the Ducks’ playoff bid, but it probably won’t earn them a shot at repeating as Big Ten champions.
Big 12
Arizona at No. 25 Arizona State (Friday, 9 p.m., Fox) — SP+ projection: Arizona by 4.0 (60% win probability)
As with the Big Ten, we probably know what we’re getting in the Big 12 championship game: a BYU-Texas Tech rematch. There’s an 86% chance both BYU and Tech win this coming weekend, per SP+, and if they do, they’re in. If they don’t, however, the Territorial Cup and the Utah-Kansas game above could both play a role.
If Arizona State beats Arizona — an upset, according to SP+ — the Sun Devils could get back to Jerry World to defend its title if Kansas upsets Utah and either BYU or Texas Tech also loses. Utah, meanwhile, needs a win, wins by BYU and Arizona State and a massive upset loss for Texas Tech. Neither of these scenarios are likely, and we’re basically looking at a 98.8% chance that either Tech or BYU wins the conference crown. But true chaos lovers know that if there’s a 98.8% chance that something happens, there’s a 1.2% chance that it doesn’t!
ACC
In addition to Miami-Pitt above, three more games will play huge roles in sorting out an incredible ACC mess.
Wake Forest at Duke (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ACCN) – SP+ projection: Duke by 0.4 (51% win probability)
Virginia Tech at No. 19 Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN) – SP+ projection: UVA by 22.2 (92%)
SMU at California (Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN2) – SP+ projection: SMU by 16.5 (85%)
Pitt remains as antisocial as its coach. A week after falling out of the CFP rankings because of a blowout loss to Notre Dame, Pat Narduzzi’s Panthers went down to Atlanta and rolled over Georgia Tech, all but eliminating the Yellow Jackets from ACC contention. Pitt led 28-0 just 19 minutes in, and while Tech was able to close to within 35-28 with 4:51 left after an offensive burst and a cataclysmic fake punt by Pitt, the Panthers clinched the win with a 56-yard touchdown run by freshman Ja’Kyrian Turner. (Subbing in for the injured Desmond Reid, Turner rushed for 201 yards against Tech’s dreadful defense.)
Now we have three 6-1 teams (Virginia, Pitt and SMU), two of which came into this weekend unranked, followed by 6-2 Georgia Tech and 5-2 Miami and Duke. If all three of the 6-1 teams win, Virginia and SMU will play for the ACC title because Pitt has the inferior record against common opponents. And obviously if only two of the three 6-1 teams win, we know who’s in.
But since when has the orderly thing happened in this conference? Just know that tiebreakers like “conference opponent win percentage” (which could be very close) and “higher SportSource Analytics team rating” could come into play. And with games in all three primary windows Saturday, this could take all day (and into early Sunday) to straighten out. Hell yeah, let’s get weird.
American
Navy at Memphis (Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN) — SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.5 (76% win probability)
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic (Saturday, noon, ESPN+) — SP+ projection: ECU by 11.1 (76%)
Rice at South Florida (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: USF by 27.3 (96%)
Per SP+, there’s a 91% chance that both Tulane and North Texas will win Saturday, and if they do, they’ll play in the American title game. But at 6-1 in the conference, Navy could pounce if either suffers a shocking upset. And if Navy also falls as an underdog at Memphis, the door might open back up for USF or East Carolina. And a blend of computer rankings (including SP+) could end up involved. But again, we have a better than 90% chance of order.
Sun Belt
Troy at Southern Miss (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: USM by 2.5 (56% win probability)
This one is straightforward: James Madison has clinched the Sun Belt East, while the winner of Troy-Southern Miss will represent the West as a hefty underdog against the Dukes.
Mountain West
San Diego State at New Mexico (Friday, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN) — SP+ projection: SDSU by 4.7 (62% win probability)
Boise State at Utah State (Friday, 4 p.m., CBS) — SP+ projection: BSU by 3.5 (59%)
UNLV at Nevada (Saturday, 9 p.m., CBSSN) — SP+ projection: UNLV by 15.8 (84%)
This one is straightforward at first: We have one team at 6-1 (San Diego State) and three at 5-2 (Boise State, UNLV and New Mexico). If SDSU beats New Mexico, then Boise State holds the tiebreaker over UNLV and would be in with a win; if the Broncos lose, UNLV is in with a win.
However, a New Mexico upset and a large tie at 6-2 could send us screaming toward the “blended computer rankings (not including SP+ this time)” tiebreaker. Algorithms could get their moment in the sun in the G5.
Conference USA
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (Saturday, 2 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: WKU by 3.7 (59% win probability)
Kennesaw State at Liberty (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN) — SP+ projection: KSU by 4.0 (60%)
Convenient: We have a three-way tie at 6-1 with Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State and Western Kentucky, and WKU and JSU play each other, so the winner is guaranteed a spot. If KSU wins, the Owls will play the WKU-JSU winner for the title. Easy peasy. But if the Owls lose, it could come down to either Jacksonville State’s head-to-head win over Kennesaw (if the Gamecocks lose to WKU) or, say it with me now, “blended computer rankings” if WKU loses to JSU.
MAC
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan (Tuesday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN2) — SP+ projection: WMU by 8.6% (70% win probability)
Ohio at Buffalo (Friday, noon, ESPNU) — SP+ projection: Ohio by 2.9 (57%)
Toledo at Central Michigan (Saturday, noon, ESPN+) — SP+ projection: Toledo by 10.3 (74%)
Ball State at Miami (Ohio) (Saturday, noon, CBSSN) — SP+ projection: Miami by 20.3 (90%)
By Wednesday morning, we’ll know if this race is messy or super messy. At 6-1, WMU is in with a Tuesday win over EMU. But there’s a four-way tie between CMU, Miami, Ohio and Toledo at 5-2. Most big-group tiebreakers seem to favor WMU and Miami, though Toledo’s head-to-head win over Miami could also come in handy.
Bowl eligibility
There are 21 5-6 teams in action this weekend, plus 5-5 Army, needing wins to ensure bowl eligibility. (Technically one of the 5-6 teams, Delaware, is ineligible for a bowl, but the Blue Hens would get one with a win if there aren’t enough eligible teams to fill all the slots.)
Based on SP+ projections, about 10 of them will win. Quite a few are listed above — Auburn (vs. Bama), Buffalo (vs. Ohio), Kansas (vs. Utah), Mississippi State (at Ole Miss), Rice (at USF), Temple (at North Texas), UCF (at BYU) — but we have loads more to follow, including a trio of “the winner bowls” matchups between 5-6 teams Saturday afternoon.
The winner bowls
5-6 Georgia Southern at 5-6 Marshall (Saturday, 1:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: Marshall by 10.2 (74% win probability)
5-6 Arkansas State at 5-6 Appalachian State (Saturday, 2:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: App State by 1.8 (54%)
5-6 Penn State at 5-6 Rutgers (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., BTN) — SP+ projection: PSU by 14.4 (82%)
Penn State has played very well under interim head coach Terry Smith, enough to build at least a little bit of “Maybe just hire Terry?” buzz. The Nittany Lions manhandled Nebraska 37-10 on Saturday — with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton combining for 204 rushing yards and four touchdowns, just like the good old days — to get within one game of .500. It would be a shock if they suffered a letdown against Rutgers, but the Scarlet Knights do still have a decent offense. (Defense, not so much.)
Other 5-6 teams
5-6 Kentucky at Louisville (Saturday, noon, ACCN) — SP+ projection: Louisville by 7.1 (67% win probability)
Houston at 5-6 Baylor (Saturday, noon, TNT) — SP+ projection: UH by 3.4 (42%)
Colorado at 5-6 Kansas State (Saturday, noon, FS1) — SP+ projection: K-State by 15.4 (83%)
UTEP at 5-6 Delaware (Saturday, 1 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: Delaware by 5.0 (62%)
Louisiana-Monroe at 5-6 Louisiana (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: UL by 15.6 (84%)
South Alabama at 5-6 Texas State (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: TXST by 11.4 (76%)
5-5 Army at UTSA (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: UTSA by 7.3 (68%)
5-6 Florida State at Florida (Saturday, 4:30 p.m., ESPN2) — SP+ projection: FSU by 7.1 (67%)
Oregon State at 5-6 Washington State (Saturday, 6:30 p.m., The CW) — SP+ projection: Wazzu by 16.6 (85%)
I usually find myself rooting for the 5-6 team in these types of games, but I’ll be rooting particularly hard for Kansas State (because the Wildcats really have rallied to play mostly decent ball down the stretch), Texas State (because the Bobcats are impossibly entertaining and dropped a series of midseason heartbreakers), and Washington State (because it played incredibly well in three trips east but fell to Ole Miss, Virginia and James Madison by one-score margins).
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
North Texas: up 4.0 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 24th to 18th)
UNLV: up 3.6 points (from 64th to 54th)
Wake Forest: up 3.5 points (from 63rd to 52nd)
South Florida: up 3.2 points (from 38th to 28th)
Vanderbilt: up 3.2 points (from 18th to 13th)
With maybe the most video-game-like offensive display I’ve seen, North Texas placed two players on the Heisman of the Week list below and rose into the SP+ top 20. (That’s higher than Boise State ranked ahead of last year’s CFP, by the way. James Madison is in the top 30, too.) Vandy’s ridiculously dominant performance against Kentucky earned the Commodores a late rise as well.
Moving down
Here are the five teams whose ratings fell the most:
Florida: down 4.9 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 50th to 69th)
Syracuse: down 4.5 points (from 101st to 118th)
UCLA: down 3.9 points (from 85th to 101st)
Colorado: down 3.3 points (from 78th to 96th)
Illinois: down 3.2 points (from 23rd to 32nd)
I guess the surprise here is that someone fell further than Syracuse. At 69th overall, this is officially Florida’s worst team since 1979, when the Gators went 0-10-1 in Charley Pell’s first season. If you’re going to struggle, I guess you might as well struggle at a historic level.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). And with just two weeks remaining in the race, we have ourselves a new leader.
0:57
Highlight: Diego Pavia sets Vandy record with 484 passing yards in win over UK
Pavia accounts for 532 total yards and six total touchdowns as the No. 14 Commodores blow out the Wildcats in Nashville, 45-17.
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (33-for-39 passing for 484 yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT, plus 63 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Kentucky).
2. Arch Manning, Texas (18-for-30 passing for 389 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown and a receiving touchdown against Arkansas).
3. Drew Mestemaker, North Texas (19-for-23 passing for 469 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Rice).
4. Joe Jackson, Kansas State (24 carries for 293 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 19 receiving yards against Utah).
5. Raleek Brown, Arizona State (22 carries for 255 yards and a touchdown, plus 33 receiving yards and a TD against Colorado).
6. LJ Martin, BYU (32 carries for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 44 receiving yards against Cincinnati).
7. Wyatt Young, North Texas (8 catches for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns against Rice).
8. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (16-for-20 passing for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 82 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Coastal Carolina).
9. Ja’Kyrian Turner, Pitt (21 carries for 201 yards and a touchdown, plus 12 receiving yards against Georgia Tech).
10. Jordan Kwiatkowski, Central Michigan (14 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 1 sack and 1 forced fumble against Kent State).
What a week for enormous performances. Any of the top seven guys here might have finished first in some other week. When I was watching Wyatt Young break what felt like 17 tackles on his way to an 84-yard touchdown against Rice, I thought he might take the top spot. He ended up seventh.
In the end, I didn’t have any doubt about the No. 1 spot. The biggest story for Vanderbilt against Kentucky was that its defense showed up for the first time in a few weeks — a very welcome sight with Tennessee on deck in a potential win-and-in game — but Diego Pavia was absolutely ridiculous as well. In his past three games, he has thrown for 1,226 yards (408.7 per game!) with 11 touchdowns and only one interception. Three straight iffy performances in October threw him off the Heisman path a bit, but as you’ll see below, his November work has put him a nose in front in the points race, at least.
Honorable mention:
• Carson Beck, Miami (27-for-32 passing for 320 yards and 4 touchdowns against Virginia Tech).
• Devon Dampier, Utah (18-for-33 passing for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 110 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Kansas State).
• Joe Fagnano, UConn (33-for-46 passing for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns against Florida Atlantic).
• Kevin Jennings, SMU (29-for-37 passing for 303 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Louisville).
• Amari Odom, Kennesaw State (24-for-34 passing for 387 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 52 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Missouri State).
• Darryl Peterson, Wisconsin (6 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble and 2 pass breakups against Illinois).
• Dominic Richardson, Tulsa (28 carries for 203 yards and a touchdown, plus 22 receiving yards against Army).
• Jalen Stroman, Notre Dame (eight tackles, two TFLs and a pick-six against Syracuse).
Joe Fagnano threw for 446 yards, and I couldn’t even squeeze him in the top 10!
Through 13 weeks, here are your points leaders. (Points over the past four weeks is the tiebreaker):
1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (34 points)
2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (29 points, 13 in the past four weeks)
3. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points, zero in the past four weeks)
4. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27 points)
5. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (26 points)
6. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (25 points, six in the past four weeks)
7. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (25 points, zero in the past four weeks)
8. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (21 points)
9. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (18 points)
10. Drew Mestemaker, North Texas (16 points, eight in the past four weeks)
We still have seven players within 10 points of the lead, so this is far from settled.
The current ESPN BET betting odds still have Mendoza (-130) and Sayin (+425) leading the way, with Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love (+500) and Pavia (+600) as the only other realistic contenders. (A&M’s Marcel Reed is at +1400, and somehow Georgia’s Gunner Stockton is only at +3500.) We still have time for a shift in conventional wisdom – I’d personally view this as a three-way tie between Mendoza, Sayin and Pavia at this point – but it still looks like we may be gearing up for a winner-take-all Mendoza-Sayin matchup in the Big Ten championship game.
My 20 favorite games of the weekend
It’s fair to admit that most of the biggest games of the week weren’t incredibly gripping, but if you did a little digging around, you were rewarded.
1. Division II: Benedict 25, Wingate 24. This was the only possible choice for the No. 1 spot. Benedict trailed 24-7 in the first round of the D-II playoffs, and Wingate was lining up for a 21-yard chip-shot field goal to go up 20. But Isaiah Isidore blocked the field goal and returned it 95 yards for a touchdown. Then Tre Simmons scored with 3:36 left to make it 24-19. The Bulldogs got the ball back at their 14 with 19 seconds left and quickly threw three incompletions. It was time to try one of those lateral-fest plays that never work.
It worked.
1:12
Division II playoff game ends on unbelievable cross-field lateral TD play
Benedict stuns Wingate with a cross-field lateral to score a long touchdown to advance in the Division II playoffs.
It apparently worked so well that the cameraperson lost his or her mind halfway through. Malik Mullins’ touchdown, after a perfectly timed lateral and an absurd burst of speed, gave Benedict the win and a spot in the second round. Best ending of the season.
2. No. 12 Utah 51, Kansas State 47. I don’t know what happened to Utah’s defense in this one, and I don’t know whether the CFP committee will punish the Utes for falling short of expectations, but this was a magnificent game all the same.
3. FCS: Bethune-Cookman 38, Florida A&M 34. The HBCU universe always provides drama, but it outdid itself this week, not only with the Benedict game but also with this Florida Classic thriller, which saw four lead changes — and four long touchdowns — in the final eight minutes. Jamal Hailey put FAMU up 27-24 with a 72-yard touchdown run, but Bethune-Cookman went ahead 44 seconds later on a 67-yard pass from journeyman Timmy McClain to Javon Ross. FAMU went back ahead with 2:19 remaining, but on fourth-and-8 with 27 seconds left, McClain found Josh Evans somehow wide open for a 41-yard score.
The moment the Classic was ours 🫨🫨🫨🫨 pic.twitter.com/FNmtrPjbnf
— 🏈 Bethune-Cookman Football (@BCUGridiron) November 23, 2025
4. UConn 48, Florida Atlantic 45. UConn hasn’t had the greatest attention span in the world against lesser teams, but that’s been great for our entertainment. The Huskies led 24-3 after the first quarter, but FAU took the lead on a 90-yard Dominique Henry catch-and-run midway through the third. UConn responded with 14 quick points, but FAU took another lead with 2:11 remaining. UConn drove 75 yards in 1:45 to make it 48-45, but FAU drove 56 yards in just 22 seconds … but badly missed a 36-yard field goal at the buzzer.
Wheeeee!
5. Duke 32, North Carolina 25. UCLA gave us one of the worst fake field goals you’ll ever see late Saturday night (I’m not even going to share a link; you’ll have to look it up to find that monstrosity), but that only provided balance to the universe because a few hours earlier Duke pulled off one of the smoothest fakes you’ll ever see. Run, kicker, run!
DUKE PULLS OFF THE FAKE FIELD GOAL 🤯 @DukeFOOTBALL pic.twitter.com/syr9FoOdue
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) November 22, 2025
Todd Pelino‘s sprint set up the winning TD.
6. Tulsa 26, Army 25. With its methodical, relentless option game, you would figure Army would be one of the worst teams against which to attempt a late comeback. But trailing 25-14 with less than five minutes remaining, Tulsa scored on a 48-yard Seth Morgan field goal, then picked off a Cale Hellums pass (!) and scored with 1:53 left. The Golden Hurricane missed a game-tying 2-point conversion and couldn’t recover the onside kick, but no worries! They stuffed Army on fourth down, and Dominic Richardson rushed five times for 37 yards to set Morgan up for a game-winning 27-yarder.
7. Iowa 20, Michigan State 17. This one was remarkably similar to Tulsa-Army, only it was the favorite making the comeback. After a dire three quarters, Iowa found itself down 17-7 heading into the fourth, but a Drew Stevens field goal and a Jacob Gill touchdown tied the game with 1:29 left. Overtime? Nope! Michigan State went four-and-out, and Mark Gronowski completed three passes for 54 yards to set Stevens up with a 44-yarder. Being that he’s awesome, Stevens made it with ease.
DREW STEVENS WINS IT FOR IOWA ON SENIOR DAY ‼️@HawkeyeFootball pic.twitter.com/xl3IO3Wl9g
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 23, 2025
It was his fourth career winner.
8. FCS: Tarleton State 45, Austin Peay 44 (OT). On one hand, Tarleton State has slipped a bit in November and won’t enter the FCS playoffs with great title odds. On the other hand, all we care is that we’re entertained! And this game was bonkers. APSU went up early and led 28-14 at halftime, and TSU had to tie the game on three separate occasions — including on a 41-yard Corbin Poston field goal with four seconds left — to force overtime. The Texans scored in two plays in overtime, but APSU responded with a 25-yard Chris Parson run on its first play. The Governors, 18.5-point underdogs, naturally went for two points and the win … and Parson airmailed an open receiver. Oof.
1:18
Austin Peay Governors vs. Tarleton Texans: Full Highlights
Austin Peay Governors vs. Tarleton Texans: Full Highlights
9. FCS: South Dakota State 34, North Dakota 31 (OT). You know who didn’t airmail an open receiver? SDSU’s Jack Henry. The Jackrabbits trailed 20-7 with 17 minutes left but made a 21-0 charge before UND tied the game at 28-28 with 1:52 left. The Fighting Hawks settled for a field goal to open overtime, and SDSU was looking at a long-range FG to tie, but Henry scrambled to his right and found a leaping Grahm Goering for the game-winner.
0:24
Jack Henry throws 23-yard touchdown pass vs. North Dakota
Jack Henry connects for 23-yard TD pass
Not only was this a clutch play, but it was a season-saver — the Jackrabbits edged their way into the FCS playoffs because of it.
10. Louisiana 34, Arkansas State 30 (Thursday). We got a wacky win probability chart for this one. ASU led at halftime thanks to both a Cody Sigler fumble return touchdown and a Chauncy Cobb kick return score. UL eased ahead in the second half, but ASU drove 89 yards in just over two late minutes. Unfortunately, the Red Wolves needed a 90th yard. Jaylen Raynor was stopped at the 1 as time expired.
11. Northwestern 38, Minnesota 35.
12. New Mexico State 34, UTEP 31.
13. Louisiana Tech 34, Liberty 28 (OT).
14. ForeverLawn Bowl: Wabash 32, Ohio Northern 31.
15. FCS: Albany 31, Monmouth 24.
16. TCU 17, No. 23 Houston 14.
17. Kennesaw State 41, Missouri State 34.
18. FCS: Tennessee Tech 20, UT Martin 17.
19. Division III: Wilkes 37, Shenandoah 35.
20. FCS: Montana State 31, Montana 28.
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Bradford Doolittle
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Bradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
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David Schoenfield
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David Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so follow along here — this story will continue to be updated. Check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.
Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents | Fantasy spin
Mets get:
2B Marcus Semien
Rangers get:
OF Brandon Nimmo
Mets grade: C+
One-for-one swaps of quality veterans are rare enough these days that when one lands, and people are familiar with both players, the label “blockbuster” starts to get thrown around in a way that would make Frantic Frank Lane roll his eyes. This deal, which brings Semien to New York for career Met Nimmo, is interesting. It is also a trade involving two post-30 players carrying multiple seasons of pricey contracts. Lackluster would be a better description than blockbuster. The valuations on this deal at Baseball Trade Values illustrate nicely the underwater contracts involved.
For the Mets, it’s important to underscore the fact that Semien is 35 years old. Though he challenged for AL MVP during Texas’ championship season in 2023, his offensive numbers have since headed south, as tends to happen to middle infielders with his expanding chronology. Over the past two seasons, his bat has been just below league average — and while there is plenty of value in being roughly average, it’s still a precarious baseline for a player on the downside of his career. His offensive forecast isn’t as good as that of New York’s heretofore presumed regular at second base, Jeff McNeil, who might still get plenty of run at other positions.
That said, Semien is a much better defender than McNeil. Semien is coming off his second career Gold Glove, an honor backed up by consistently strong fielding metrics that have marked his play at the keystone ever since he moved over from shortstop. Though Semien’s contract features a higher average annual value than Nimmo ($25 million in terms of the luxury tax calculation versus $20.5 million), it’s of shorter duration and the move will cut into New York’s considerable longer-term obligations.
One thing that is head-scratching here: The Mets are pretty deep in high-quality infield prospects, from Luisangel Acuna to Ronny Mauricio to Jett Williams, all of whom carry considerably more upside than Semien at this point.
Rangers grade: C+
If you ignore positional adjustments, Nimmo is a better hitter than Semien and should be a considerable upgrade for Texas in the outfield compared with what the Rangers had been getting from the recently non-tendered Adolis Garcia. He’s not as good a defender as Garcia, especially in arm strength and, in fact, is likelier to play in left in Texas rather than Garcia’s old spot in right. As mentioned, Semien was a Gold Glover at his position and so now, in their effort to remake an offense that needed an overhaul, you worry that the Rangers are putting a dent in their defense.
We’ll see how that shakes out as the offseason unfolds, but for now, we can focus on Nimmo’s bat and the possibility that his numbers could get a bump from the switch in venues. He’s typically hit better on the road than at pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and Globe Life Field, while strangely stingy overall last season, has typically been a solid place to hit for left-handed batters.
The project in Texas is clear. It’s about not just improving the offensive production but also pursuing that goal by shifting the focus of the attack. Nimmo’s power bat is a slim upgrade on Semien and a downgrade from Garcia. But Nimmo is a much better hitter for average than both, and he has the best plate discipline of the trio. These are both traits the Rangers’ offense very much needed.
Nimmo’s contract is a problem, but it’s more of a longer-term issue than it will be in 2026, when he’ll make $5.5 million less than Semien. Texas is looking to reshuffle while reigning in the spending, and this is the kind of deal that aids that agenda. The Rangers can worry about the real downside of Nimmo’s deal later. For now, they can hope that moving to a new vista for the first time will boost Nimmo’s numbers, which have settled a tier below where they were during his Mets prime. — Bradford Doolittle
Orioles get:
LF Taylor Ward
Angels get:
RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Orioles grade: D
The first major trade of last offseason came on Nov. 22, when Cincinnati dealt Jonathan India to Kansas City for Brady Singer. This one leaked on Nov. 18, so we’re getting an earlier start. Given the relatively tepid nature of this year’s free agent class, the hope is that this deal is the vanguard of a coming baseball swap meet. Trades are fun.
Alas, although it was easy to understand the reasoning for both sides in the aforementioned Reds-Royals deal, I’m not sure I get this one so much from the Orioles side. The caveat is that maybe Baltimore’s brass, which obviously knows a lot more about Rodriguez than I do, has good reason to think that Gray-Rod (just made that one up) is not likely to live up to his considerable pre-MLB hype.
I don’t like to get too actuarial about these things, but you kind of have to be in this case because Ward will be a free agent after the 2026 season whereas Rodriguez has four seasons of team control left on his service time clock. Thus, even if Rodriguez is likely to need an adjustment period this season as he attempts to come back from the injuries that cost him all of 2025, Baltimore would have had plenty of time to let that play out.
Ward turns 32 next month, likely putting him at the outer rim of his career prime. He has been a decent player — an average of 3.0 bWAR over the past four years — but his skill set is narrow. Ward has been a fixture in left field the past couple of seasons and has shown diminishment both on defense and on the bases. He’s someone you acquire for his bat.
On that front, Ward hit a career-high 36 homers in 2025, but his underlying Statcast-generated expected numbers suggest he overachieved in that area a bit. The righty-swinging Ward does generate power to the opposite field, but his power game is still likely to see a negative impact from the move to Camden Yards. He’s patient at the plate to the point of occasional passivity, as he’s almost always hunting a pitch to drive, even if that means taking a couple of strikes.
That’s not a bad thing, but that approach, combined with a fly ball-heavy distribution, has led to a consistently plummeting average: .281 to .253 to .246 to .228. He’s a take-and-rake guy who doesn’t generate enough fear from pitchers to keep them out of the zone, which might supercharge his walk rate enough to bring his OBP up to an acceptable level, which it won’t be given the batting average trend.
And all of this would be fine for one year of a productive hitter likely to earn $12-14 million through the arbitration process. But at the cost of four years of a pitcher with Rodriguez’s ceiling? I’m not seeing it.
Angels grade: A-
This is about upside for an Angels staff desperate for a true No. 1 starter. To expect Rodriguez to fill that need in 2026 is a lot, and perhaps, given his durability issues, he will never get there. His big league results (97 ERA+, 3.80 FIP over 43 starts in 2023 and 2024) are solid but nothing special. The allure of Rodriguez remains the combination of high ceiling and controllable seasons.
And the ceiling is very high. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Rodriguez as the game’s top pitching prospect in 2022 and rated him nearly as high in 2023. The mere possibility of Gray-Rod (did it again) fulfilling that potential in an Angels uniform is an exciting notion for fans in Anaheim.
Whether or not there is much of a possibility of Rodriguez getting there is almost beside the point. I’d feel better about this if he were headed to an organization with a better track record of turning around underachieving/injury-prone hurlers, but maybe the Angels can make some strides in this area.
The deal opens up a hole in the outfield for the Angels with no obvious plug-in solution from the organization. But finding a free agent replacement who approximates or exceeds Ward’s production shouldn’t break the bank. Here’s a vote for going after Cody Bellinger.
The possibility of that kind of upgrade and maybe someday a fully realized Gray-Rod, all for the low-low price of one season of Taylor Ward? Sign me up. — Doolittle
The deal: 5 years, $92.5 million
Grade: A-
If there was an award for free agent prediction most to likely come true, Josh Naylor returning to the Seattle Mariners would have been the front-runner, so it’s hardly a surprise that this is the first significant signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As soon as the Mariners’ season ended with that heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the ALCS, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was its top priority. Such public vocalizations at that level are rare — and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.
It’s easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been searching for a long-term solution at first base for, oh, going on 20 years — really, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a couple solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005 only the Pirates’ first basemen have produced a lower OPS than Seattle’s.
Naylor, meanwhile, came over at the trade deadline from Arizona and provided a huge spark down the stretch, hitting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 54 games, good for 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished at .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, it’s not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, but Naylor spoke about how he loves hitting there. The numbers back that up: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and slugged .534.
Importantly for a Seattle lineup that is heavy on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; he finished with the 17th-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s entire game is a bit of an oxymoron. He ranks in just the seventh percentile in chase rate but still had a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) with an excellent contact rate. He can’t run (third percentile!) but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19-for-19 after joining the Mariners. He doesn’t look like he’d be quick in the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the past four seasons.
He’s not a star — 3.1 WAR in 2025 was a career high — but he’s a safe, predictable player to bank on for the next few years. This deal runs through his age-33 season, so maybe there’s some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing and so will Mariners fans. — David Schoenfield
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