Stepping out of Nick Saban’s shadow, Kirby Smart takes over as dean of SEC coaches
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Chris Low, ESPN Senior Writer
ONE OF THE last things Kirby Smart said to Nick Saban last December at midfield of Mercedes-Benz Stadium following the SEC championship game proved to be prophetic.
“You can’t keep doing this much longer,” Smart joked with his former boss.
Alabama and Saban had just beaten Georgia and Smart — again — and five weeks later, Saban’s legendary coaching career would come to an end when he announced his retirement after 17 seasons and six national championships in Tuscaloosa. Before leading Georgia on a remarkable run of its own, Smart was part of four of those national titles as Saban’s defensive coordinator.
Granted, Saban hasn’t gone far, joining ESPN’s “College GameDay” crew. But he has traded the sideline stage for the TV stage, and for his suite during Alabama home games, which is where he will be Saturday night when Smart leads his No. 2 Bulldogs into Bryant-Denny Stadium to face No. 4 Alabama in one of the most anticipated matchups of the season (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+).
In eight seasons under Smart, Georgia has won two national titles, played for a third and won 13 or more games in each of the past three seasons. For all of Smart’s dizzying success, his only kryptonite was Saban. In fact, the last coach other than Saban to beat Smart was Dan Mullen at Florida in 2020, and Mullen is now an ESPN analyst as well.
Not counting Smart’s first season at Georgia in 2016, he has lost just 11 games. Five of those were to Saban, although Smart’s only win against Saban, in 2021, sent the Bulldogs to their first national championship in 41 years when they beat the Crimson Tide 33-18 in Indianapolis. Georgia repeated as national champs the next year, the first team to do so since Alabama in 2011 and 2012, and the Bulldogs won an SEC-record 29 straight games before losing to Alabama and Saban last season in the SEC championship game, costing them a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Who could blame Smart if he were to steal a quick glance across the field during pregame warmups Saturday to make sure Saban isn’t standing on the other sideline, still casting a shadow over Smart and the rest of the sport?
“I feel like he’s still in it, so I don’t really see it as there being a shadow,” Smart told ESPN. “He’s announcing. He’s still involved. He’s still trying to make things right in our game, with Congress or whomever. He ain’t going nowhere. This dude loves it, and he is going to be part of it for a long time. The game is better with him in it. I just have so much respect for him.
“He’s just not coaching anymore, and I don’t get any more chances to beat him.”
Only 48, Smart is far from finished. In fact, he might just be getting started. And not that he really cares, but with Saban retired, Smart has become the face of college football (at least from a coaching standpoint), and in many respects, one of the sport’s most salient voices. He’s the co-chair of the NCAA Football Rules Committee and the architect of a football machine that has produced more NFL first-round draft picks (17) than Smart has had losses (16) in eight seasons at Georgia.
“He understands what’s good for the game, what’s bad for the game. He’s on top of the sport right now,” said Dan Lanning, who was Smart’s defensive coordinator before becoming Oregon’s head coach two years ago. “He’s separated himself and put himself in a category of his own.”
But Smart wants no part of the Saban comparisons, and with good reason. Smart said probably nobody has impacted college football more than Saban, and that the precedent Saban set on the field is something everyone, himself included, will be chasing for a long time.
“We’ve been really good the last few years and had a lot of success and I’m certainly thankful for that. But in no way, shape or form does that put me on the pedestal or the statue that he was on,” Smart said. “I think there’s a group of people out there leading their programs who are really good coaches, and they’re lucky to have the programs that they do.
“But I don’t see it as a one-person spot or role or whatever word you want to use for it right now, not with him gone. I see it as a lot of guys out there competing and seeing who’s going to be the best and who’s going to have the next run — if there is one.”
With Saban’s phenomenal career at Alabama over, it’s Smart’s time to be front and center in the pressure cooker, and it will be fascinating to see how his image, job and life change — if they change at all — with his nemesis and mentor no longer coaching. Those who know Smart best suggest he has already laid the pathway to continued success.
“Nobody had more of a front-row seat to how Coach [Saban] did it than Kirby,” said Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, who was the offensive coordinator on Alabama’s 2015 national championship team when Smart was the defensive coordinator.
“You see a lot of what made [Saban] so great in what Kirby’s doing at Georgia, the way they recruit, the development of players, the organization, the size, length and physicality of the players. A lot of people who’ve come through there have tried to copy [Saban’s] model. As you’ve seen, it’s a lot easier said than done. It’s also the reason very few of us ever beat him, even Kirby.”
BARRY ODOM, NOW the coach at UNLV, entered the SEC head-coaching octagon at Missouri in 2016, the same year Smart was hired at Georgia, both taking the reins at their alma maters. Odom made it four years before being fired. Smart replaced Mark Richt after working under Saban for 10 consecutive seasons, including with the Miami Dolphins in 2006.
Odom said Smart is too focused on what’s right in front of him to let anything change him or the way he runs his program.
“He doesn’t have any blind spots. He’s elite, and I think he’ll go down in the history of college football as one of the best coaches ever,” Odom said. “And the crazy thing is there’s no drop-off. He has done it every single year.”
Georgia is the only team in the country to be ranked in the top seven of the final AP poll each of the past seven seasons, and Smart has been at his best in some of the biggest games. He has won five straight AP top-five matchups, one shy of the longest such streak ever by a head coach. Lou Holtz won six straight from 1988-90 at Notre Dame, and Saban won six in a row from 2017-18.
Before taking over the Bulldogs, Smart had several chances to leave Alabama for other jobs while working for Saban. When Gus Malzahn was hired at Auburn prior to the 2013 season, there was support on the Plains to hire Smart, especially from former coach Pat Dye, but Smart had promised Saban he would stay on as defensive coordinator through the national championship game. Then-Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs and the search committee were uncomfortable with the thought of the new coach at Auburn staying at rival Alabama for another month and helping lead the Tide to a national title.
There were other opportunities, too. Smart was South Carolina’s top target to fill its vacancy following the 2015 season after Steve Spurrier resigned midseason and was meeting with representatives from the school the day Richt was fired as Georgia’s head coach. Heading into the 2012 season, he was the front-runner at Southern Miss but withdrew his name from consideration. Richt even made a lucrative offer to lure Smart back to Georgia to be his defensive coordinator in 2011.
“Kirby’s done as good a job as anybody in college football, and he was patient and smart when he was [at Alabama] to wait for the right job,” Saban said. “Kirby had the right perspective on things. So many coaches take jobs because they think, whether it’s money or the title, that it’s going to promote their career. The only thing that promotes your career is winning, and we were in a great position here to continue winning and having really good defenses.
“Some guys aren’t patient enough to do that, but Kirby was and it paid off for him. He got what is probably the best job in the SEC and made it even better.”
It wasn’t a total rebuild for Smart as Richt had averaged nearly 10 wins a season, but getting the players to buy in to his way of doing things didn’t happen overnight. Georgia lost five games his first season, including losses to Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt.
“I wanted more than relevance. I wanted dominance,” Smart said of his mindset when taking the Georgia job. “I wanted to be consistent. I wanted to be competing for national championships and be very consistent, and that’s the one thing that I’m most proud of, the consistency that we’ve shown.”
Going back to his playing days, Smart has usually gotten what he has wanted. His former teammates and his coach at Georgia, Jim Donnan, never doubted Smart had the right temperament, intelligence and savvy to take a perennial top-20 program under Richt to the level where it would start stacking up championship trophies. Richt’s teams won at least 10 games in four of his final five seasons, but Georgia’s last SEC championship was in 2005. Smart was the running backs coach on that team, and it was also a productive year for him away from football. He met his wife, Mary Beth, who was working in the athletic association’s business office and played basketball at Georgia.
Donnan, who lives in Athens and remains close to the program, remembers seeing Smart, then a sophomore, tutor future Pro Football Hall of Famer Champ Bailey on the practice field when Bailey was a freshman in 1996.
“Kirby knew everything, what guys at every position were supposed to do. He was outgoing and demanding,” said Donnan, who gave Smart his coaching start in 1999 as an administrative assistant. Donnan took over as Georgia’s coach in 1996 after Ray Goff was fired. Smart had just finished his freshman season under Goff, and Donnan immediately knew he had a special leader in Smart.
“When you take over a program, there’s always going to be some doubters among the players that were there with the other coach,” Donnan said. “But right away, Kirby was very good about adjusting to me and not saying, ‘Hey, we didn’t used to do it that way.’ He made sure nobody else did either, and basically said, ‘Get on or get off.’ Even as a second-year player, he had the other guys’ respect.”
Matt Stinchcomb, now a television analyst for ESPN, was a two-time All-America offensive tackle at Georgia and played all four seasons (1995-98) with Smart.
“You’re dealing with an incredibly driven, high-capacity, high-horsepower guy who’s on go every second of every day,” Stinchcomb said. “He was the same way as a player, very demanding and forthright, and would communicate it whether you liked what he said or not, and I do think that has served him well in this capacity.
“I don’t think that he is careless with how he communicates, but he won’t let the importance of a message be diminished by how it might be received. If it needs to be said, it’s going to get said.”
Smart reminds his players often that humility in the SEC is only a week away. Two weeks ago, Georgia looked very beatable in a sluggish 13-12 win at Kentucky, and that might have been the perfect teaching moment for Smart as he got his team ready for Alabama during a bye week. The Tide have a chance to win their ninth game in the teams’ past 10 meetings, this time with first-year coach Kalen DeBoer at the helm. Smart (28-12) and DeBoer (8-2) are the only two current coaches in the SEC with winning records against teams that finished the season ranked in the final AP poll.
“The wind blows pretty hard up there at the top,” Stinchcomb said. “I don’t see [the Bulldogs] toppling, but when you grow the beast the way Kirby has, it only gets harder.”
It’s exactly what Smart signed up for when he took the job. He was undaunted by the gaudy expectations at a place that many around college football considered one of the sport’s biggest underachievers given how long it had been since Georgia last won a national championship — 1980 with Herschel Walker leading the way.
Perhaps the only other coach in the past two decades to walk in under that kind of pressure at his alma mater was Jim Harbaugh when he returned to Michigan in 2015.
Even Harbaugh didn’t match Smart’s early success, especially in the games that mattered most. Harbaugh lost five straight to rival Ohio State, which put a damper on his three 10-win seasons in his first five years in Ann Arbor. But he finally broke through and beat Ohio State each of his final three seasons, winning the Big Ten all three years and the national title in 2023.
“The thing about Kirby is he’s won so much so fast,” said North Carolina’s Mack Brown, who was at Texas eight years before winning a national championship. “Coach [Barry] Switzer said it best. He said that you create a monster, and it’s hard to keep that monster fed because he gets hungry.”
Last Saturday, an ESPN reporter was with Switzer at the Oklahoma-Tennessee game in Norman, Oklahoma, when a fan asked him, “I saw Coach Saban said college football is going to the dogs. What’s he talking about?”
“I think he was talking about Georgia,” Switzer said, laughing. “They’re beating everybody’s ass.”
JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY who came through the Alabama program when Saban and Smart were there together will tell you that Smart is probably the most like Saban of any of his former assistants.
And, yet, Smart didn’t try to be a Saban clone.
“If you were going to replicate [Saban], Kirby would be the one,” said Arkansas State athletic director Jeff Purinton, who came to Alabama in 2007 with Saban and worked as closely as anybody with him outside the football staff as associate athletic director for football communications.
“Think about how long and how much those two were together going back to when Kirby was at LSU with [Saban] in 2004. They were in the defensive back room together every day, both relentless recruiters. They’re a lot alike, but Kirby was also going to be his own guy and put his stamp on it.”
And for the record, Smart was always on Saban’s team in the staff’s lunchtime 3-on-3 basketball games.
“I was the damn commissioner. I picked the teams,” Saban said.
Smart said being able to use Saban’s blueprint was important, but joked “not as important as having good players and good facilities.”
His feel for his alma mater, Georgia’s geographic footprint for recruiting and the history of the program provided Smart advantages that a lot of former Saban assistants didn’t necessarily have when they landed head jobs.
“There are a lot of positives about this place that some of those other folks didn’t have, but I think you get comfortable in your own skin and you make decisions on things you want to do,” Smart said. “I definitely think I’ve changed during the time I’ve been here and it’s not as similar to Alabama as it was when I first got here. But even Nick evolved every year I was there.
“You’ve got to. You either evolve or you die, and we’ve certainly done that here.”
Smart, whose father, Sonny, was a high school football coach and mother, Sharon, was an English teacher, has been willing to listen and accept new ideas, even though he can be unbending on some of the most minute details.
“I like input. I like smart people around me,” Smart said. “It’s not a dictatorship deal. You make good decisions when you have good people around you.”
Just as Saban worked closely with sports psychologist Kevin Elko for two decades, Smart brought in Drew Brannon, a sports psychologist partnered with AMPLOS and based in Greenville, South Carolina, in 2020. Brannon had worked with Georgia athletes in the past, and Smart came out of the 2020 COVID season feeling as if something were missing in his program.
“Don’t underestimate the difference that made,” said Neyland Raper, who was Smart’s director of football operations before taking a job as the Big 12’s director of football operations and competition in July. “We had skull sessions with the players where they got up and told their stories. We formed small groups, and we did surveys with the players, trying to find more connectivity. You could see it transforming.
“Clemson was always the beacon of culture and Alabama the beacon of talent, and we moved to where we were somewhere in the middle ground. It’s worked because in this era of NIL and the money being paid, you wouldn’t believe how many kids who are really good players take a discount to come to Georgia. But, hey, that’s why they’re winning because players aren’t going there just for the money.”
For all the success on the field, it has been a turbulent year and a half off the field for Smart and the Georgia program. Players have continued to run afoul of the law with driving-related incidents, even after a fatal crash in January 2023 where recruiting staff member Chandler LeCroy and former player Devin Willock were killed while racing a car driven by star defensive lineman Jalen Carter. Both cars were traveling at more than 100 mph, and police said alcohol was involved in the crash.
There have been at least 20 arrests or citations involving players for driving-related violations, including DUI, speeding and reckless driving. Two of the most recent players to be arrested — running back Trevor Etienne (a DUI charge that was pleaded down) and cornerback Daniel Harris (a reckless driving charge after police said he was clocked at 106 mph) — missed playing time. Etienne was suspended for the season opener against Clemson, and Harris was held out of the win over Kentucky two weeks ago.
Smart said the issues have been addressed repeatedly and that punishment, including taking away players’ NIL money, has been doled out even if it’s not announced publicly.
“I’ll say what I’ve been saying, and that is that we’ve worked very hard with our administration to try to prevent it and stop it, and most importantly, keep everybody safe,” Smart said. “We’ve got to find a way to do that.”
On the field, what has separated Georgia, winner of 42 straight regular-season games under Smart, is the same thing that fueled Alabama’s dominance under Saban.
“We worked our ass off in recruiting,” Saban said. “We got good players and then we did a good job of developing the players. If you look at recent history, Georgia is having a No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 recruiting class every year, and they’re doing a great job of developing those really good players. So the combination of those two things has put them in the position to be one of the dominant programs in the country, probably the most dominant.”
Quarterback Carson Beck said the competition and depth of talent on the practice field has been the secret sauce under Smart, and it was the same way with Saban at Alabama. Smart squeezes out the uncompetitive, those players who simply aren’t a fit.
“If you’re afraid of competition, Georgia is the wrong place for you,” Beck said. “And if you don’t want to be coached hard and coached that way every single day, Coach Smart is the wrong coach for you.”
Practices at Alabama under Saban weren’t for the squeamish. He was constantly on the move, barking at coaches and players alike, and his way of getting his point across wouldn’t have been rated PG. Smart is the same way, only he has a microphone, and his voice reverberates — especially once the trees begin to lose their leaves in the fall — throughout the Five Points neighborhood behind the Georgia practice fields.
“I mean, it starts from the top down,” Beck said. “That’s every big business, every team, and Coach [Smart] is the pinnacle. There’s no letup. He’s at the top and it’s going to work all the way down.”
Smart’s personality and connection with his players have shown through loudly (and with explicit language) in videos of his impassioned locker room speeches that have appeared on social media in recent years.
“It’s like any family,” he said. “You’re most honest with the people you care the most about.”
Family is important to Smart. He allowed co-defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, one of his closest confidants, to transition to an analyst’s role, freeing up Muschamp and his wife, Carol, to travel on weekends to watch their son, Whit, play at Vanderbilt. Smart has made similar arrangements so assistant coaches could be at their kids’ activities.
“When Kirby’s not in the football building or recruiting, he’s with his family,” Donnan said.
Smart’s penchant for having a hand in everything that touches his program is renowned. As control freaks go in the coaching ranks, and there are many, Smart is at or near the top. And if you think Smart is all-knowing when it comes to his football team, Donnan said you ought to see him at one of his three kids’ sporting events. His youngest son, Andrew, played in the Little League World Series this summer.
“He’s a good dad, and he can tell you everything about every kid on the team, knows all their strengths and weaknesses,” Donnan said. “I mean, he’s talking about the left fielder, knows which kids won’t swing the bat, which ones go after bad pitches.
“He doesn’t miss a whole lot.”
But, then, he learned from the best.
With conference play set to open across the country in Week 3, we’re about to get a much firmer grasp on the 2025 college football landscape. Among other things, this weekend will deliver fresh windows into first-year quarterbacks at Georgia and Tennessee when the Bulldogs travel to Neyland Stadium. Elsewhere in the SEC, Florida visits No. 3 LSU with the pair of SEC rivals respectively shouldering very different but equally hefty stakes. Meanwhile, some of college football’s most surprising early-season storylines will continue to play out Saturday with No. 18 South Florida leading the charge as the surging Bulls venture south to No. 5 Miami.
Our college football experts give insight on key matchups in this weekend’s pair of high-profile SEC clashes, the programs that have surprised us so far and the top quotes of the past seven days entering Week 3. — Eli Lederman
Jump to:
Georgia-Tennessee | Florida-LSU
Teams that have surprised us | Quotes of the Week
What will Georgia and Tennessee need from their new starting QBs?
Georgia: Quarterback Gunner Stockton gets his first SEC road test at Tennessee on Saturday, and the Bulldogs will be looking for him to deliver more in the downfield passing game. Stockton played OK in Georgia’s first two wins over Marshall and FCS program Austin Peay, completing 69% of his pass attempts for 417 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for two scores against the Thundering Herd. His legs weren’t much of a factor in last week’s closer-than-expected win against the Governors. Stockton has taken care of the football and hasn’t put the defense in bad situations, but Georgia needs more explosive plays on offense. He has attempted only 10 passes beyond 10 yards. Georgia went into the transfer portal to get USC’s Zachariah Branch and Texas A&M’s Noah Thomas, and Colbie Young is back after sitting out most of the 2024 season because of a suspension. Those playmakers have to be more involved on offense, along with tight ends Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie. If Georgia is going to beat Tennessee for the ninth straight time, Stockton has to be more comfortable letting the ball fly, especially against a secondary that is missing starting cornerbacks Jermod McCoy (ACL) and Rickey Gibson III (arm) because of injuries.
Tennessee: The Volunteers couldn’t have asked for much more from transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar in their first two victories against Syracuse and FCS program East Tennessee State. The former App State starter completed 66.1% of his attempts for 535 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He threw a 73-yard touchdown to Braylon Staley against the Orange and a 53-yarder to Mike Matthews against the Buccaneers. He might have to do even more against Georgia’s defense, which brings back promising safety KJ Bolden and cornerback Daylen Everette, a potential first-round pick in the 2026 NFL draft. The Bulldogs are going to try to stifle Tennessee’s running game and get after Aguilar in the pocket. Georgia coach Kirby Smart and defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann have had UT coach Josh Heupel’s number in recent seasons. The Bulldogs haven’t given up explosive plays, a trademark of Heupel’s system. In each of the past three losses to Georgia, the Volunteers’ high-flying offense failed to throw for 200 yards and didn’t have a passing touchdown. — Mark Schlabach
What do Florida and LSU need to capitalize on to win?
Florida: Aside from avoiding penalties, including spitting on a player? The Gators have to play with the emotion and intensity that comes with knowing their season is hanging in the balance after a shocking 18-16 loss to USF. They can do that by setting the tone on defense, which played well for stretches against the Bulls but then gave up 87 yards on eight plays on the final drive. LSU has struggled to run the ball through two games, and frustrations boiled over after a 23-7 win over Louisiana Tech, in which the Tigers averaged 3.8 yards per carry. In their win over LSU last year, Florida held the Tigers to 2.9 yards per carry. The good news for Florida is it won’t be facing a dual-threat quarterback like Byrum Brown. So if the Gators can limit the LSU backs, they will give themselves a shot. — Andrea Adelson
LSU: The Gators might be more desperate, but the Tigers should be plenty motivated after what happened in Gainesville last fall. LSU’s defense looks like the better of the two units and must cause more distress for DJ Lagway, who averaged 17.4 yards per completion in the 2024 win. The Tigers hurried Lagway nine times but never sacked him. They also let down in the fourth quarter with two touchdowns allowed. LSU’s upgrades on defense and playing at home, where coach Brian Kelly implored that the crowd needs to “live up to our résumé as the toughest place to play in the country,” must become outcome-swinging factors. Garrett Nussmeier is still the superior quarterback, and if LSU can get Caden Durham going — he had 95 rushing yards against Florida last season — the Tigers should prevail. — Adam Rittenberg
Five teams that have surprised us so far
South Florida: It would have been very easy to look at South Florida’s first two games of the season and have both of them — against Boise State and Florida — earmarked as likely losses. Instead, the Bulls went out and started 2-0, making a surprising early case as the best Group of 5 team. The win against Boise State was particularly impressive because of how lopsided it was (34-7). Boise State looked nothing like the team that reached the playoff last season (losing running back Ashton Jeanty, of course, played a significant role in that).
UCLA: After the Bruins finished the 2024 season winning four of their final six games, they brought in transfer quarterback Nico Iamaleava in the offseason. It was reasonable to be optimistic about the direction of the football program. Two games later, UCLA looks like an underdog in all nine of the Big Ten games on its schedule. The Bruins weren’t remotely competitive in their 43-10 loss to Utah, then fell behind 23-0 to UNLV before making it look more respectable in a 30-23 loss last week. Now, UCLA will have to brace for another season of playing in a more than half-empty Rose Bowl.
Kansas State: The only thing between the Wildcats and an 0-3 start, is a last-minute touchdown against FCS North Dakota. Their three-point losses to Iowa State and Army aren’t the end of the world, but this team was expected to compete for the Big 12 title (and still could, to be fair) and hasn’t yet looked the part. Against Army, quarterback Avery Johnson was limited to 172 yards passing and 14 yards rushing. That’s not a formula with which K-State can win.
Florida State: The roller coaster in Tallahassee has been a wild ride. In no other era of college football does it seem plausible for a team to win 19 games in a row, then lose 11 of 13 and then immediately jump back into the top 10. And yet this is the life the Seminoles have lived over the past few seasons. FSU was expected to be better this season, but its convincing win against Alabama in Week 1 might have been the most surprising result of the young season.
Mississippi State: After finishing 2-10 last season with a winless SEC campaign, the Bulldogs didn’t have much momentum. But after an upset of then-No. 12 Arizona State, perhaps this is a team that could be bowling at the end of the season. With games against Alcorn State and Northern Illinois the next two weeks, a 4-0 start seems likely before the gauntlet of conference play begins. — Kyle Bonagura
Quotes of the Week
“According to who? Arch said that to you?” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian responded to a question this week as speculation swirled over the health of Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. “I’ve never filmed any of you guys when you’re using the bathroom, so I don’t know what faces you make when you’re doing that.”
“Who has one of those? What does that look like? What does a solidified quarterback look like? What does that look like? I want to know. We play quarterbacks every week. What does a solidified quarterback look like?” Colorado coach Deion Sanders said when asked if he had concerns around the absence of a “solidified quarterback” with third-string quarterback Ryan Staub expected to start ahead of veteran Kaidon Salter and freshman Julian Lewis in Week 3. “That could mean something’s up with your roster if it’s clear,” Sanders continued. “Then [when] that clear guy goes down, what’s up with the second one? I like where we are, man. I like what we have. I like what we’re playing with. I like these dice I’m shaking.”
“Just wanted to see if we could,” Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said of the Tigers’ illegal free kick against Kansas in Week 2 that prompted the Big 12 to suspend the responsible officiating crew on Tuesday. “You know, it’s like asking your parents if you can do something that you know they probably shouldn’t let you do. But sometimes they get it wrong.”
“I love Darian to death,” Tulane coach Jon Sumrall said of Duke and former Green Wave quarterback Darian Mensah ahead of the Blue Devils’ Week 3 visit to Tulane. “I’ve said this publicly: if you play one snap, 100 snaps, 1,000 snaps for me, I’ll love you for the rest of my life. I care about him, wish him well, saw him this summer — I’ve got nothing but love for Darian.”
“I’ve talked to many that believe across the country this is the progress we need to make,” LSU’s Brian Kelly said of Ohio State Buckeyes coach Ryan Day’s response to proposed transfer portal changes. “I want to get my roster set. Now, I know there’s probably 12 or 16 teams that might be in the playoffs at that time. I’m sorry, there’s no crying on the yacht. I mean, we got to get this thing set and its best position at this time to allow us to set our rosters moving forward.”
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Pamela Maldonado
Week 3 of college football season is here, and the board is spicy. Lines are shifting, narratives are forming, and a few teams are still getting priced like their old selves.
I’ve circled my spots, run the numbers, and this week’s card has a mix of edges I feel good about — the kind where matchup meets value. Week 3 feels like college football’s version of speed dating because some teams look amazing at home, others look lost on the road, FCS opponents are muddying the waters, and we’re still figuring out who’s the real deal and who’s just catfishing us.
No spoilers yet, but let’s just say a couple of teams are about to get tested, and I’m betting the market hasn’t caught up.
All odds by ESPN BET
Bet to make: Georgia Tech +3.5
The market is still pricing 2022 Clemson instead of what we’ve seen on the field. It’s early. I know. However, I have doubts.
Clemson has struggled to find rhythm offensively. Cade Klubnik has talent — I thought Heisman talent — but this group is outside the top 90 in offensive efficiency and is converting just 31% of third downs. That’s like trying to win a chess match when you keep losing your queen early.
The biggest mismatch here is explosiveness. Georgia Tech is top 30 in both passing and rushing EPA, while Clemson sits outside the top 80 in both. The mismatch matters because the Yellow Jackets don’t need 12 plays to find the end zone, while Clemson often does. In a game projected to be tight, the team that can create quick-strike touchdowns or flip field position in one play has the edge, and right now that’s Georgia Tech.
Through two games, GT’s rushing offense has been one of the most efficient in the country. It ranks second in rushing yards, averaging over seven yards per carry, with four different players already ripping off runs of 27 yards or longer, including quarterback Haynes King.
That rushing strength will be tested, and King’s injury status is something to keep an eye on, but he is expected to play. He’s a quarterback who forces you to defend every blade of grass.
I look back to late last season and think of this as it déjà vu for Clemson’s defense. They saw this exact movie last season with South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (166 rushing yards). King has a very similar skill set, except GT’s overall offense is more explosive.
Grab the points. The Yellow Jackets have the sting to pull off the upset.
Bet to make: Oregon -27.5 and Northwestern UNDER 10.5
Oregon is beating up on opponents they’re supposed to, winning by a combined score of 128-16 while averaging 10.2 yards per play. The offense has been balanced and explosive, led by Dante Moore‘s efficiency and a backfield that’s averaging 8.4 yards per carry.
Now they face a Northwestern defense ranked 122nd in EPA per rush allowed, the same group Tulane gashed for 269 rushing yards in Week 1. This sets up as a trench mismatch, and Oregon has the speed and depth to exploit it.
Northwestern’s secondary is solid, but that was against Western Illinois, and even still, Oregon’s run game is the hammer and Northwestern’s front is the nail. The Ducks also are second in yards gained, meaning they are finishing drives at an elite rate. This is one of those matchups where Oregon can control the script, lean on their ground game and force Northwestern to play catch-up with an offense that lacks any weapons to contend.
Betting against this Oregon offense right now (against soft opponents) feels risky. Now, both of the Ducks games were at home, but I see this unit translating on the road, too, in the right context. I’m not at all ready to call them championship ready, but beating up on the little guys? Yes.
Also worth considering: Northwestern team total UNDER 9.5 points (+105)
Oregon’s defense has allowed only two red zone trips. The Wildcats are averaging only 4.5 yards per pass with five turnovers in two games. Oregon’s defense isn’t flashy, but it forces long drives and eliminates explosive plays, allowing just three gains of 20+ yards so far.
Northwestern will need to string together 10-play drives against a top defense that collapses early downs and limits red-zone access. The Ducks might clip the Wildcats’ whiskers and leave Evanston with a shutout.
Bet to make: New Mexico +15.5
We need to stop pretending UCLA has shown us anything that warrants laying more than two touchdowns.
UCLA’s defense has been a problem, giving up a third-down conversion rate of 70%, fourth worst in the country. That means opponents stay on the field, bleed clock and keep games close.
New Mexico is 130th in rushing yards, but that raw number doesn’t tell the whole story when you look at context. Week 1 was at Michigan, one of the best defensive fronts in the country and Scottre Humphrey had just 10 carries for 33 yards which tanked their early rushing stats.
But in Week 2 against Idaho State, we finally saw the real picture: 18 carries, 141 yards, 7.8 YPC and a 61-yard burst, which is not atypical for Humphrey. In fact, he had nine 100-yard rushing games last year.
So is it enough to buy into New Mexico’s ground game here? Against UCLA, yes. UCLA’s run defense is dead last in success rate allowed and just got gashed for 286 rushing yards by Utah and 148 more by UNLV.
This matchup actually tilts toward Humphrey being a real factor again.
The key is game script. If UCLA jumps ahead by multiple scores early, Humphrey gets neutralized, forcing Jack Layne into obvious passing downs, which is not their strength. But if New Mexico can stay within one score into the second half, Humphrey is the player who keeps them competitive.
This isn’t a volume stat issue, it’s a matchup issue, and against UCLA the door is open. Continue fading the Bruins.
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Bradford Doolittle
Just as baseball’s postseason chase has entered the stretch run, those vying for individual honors are running out of time to make their cases.
This is our fourth and final Awards Watch of the regular season, and with that in mind, we’ve changed up our usual format to narrow the focus of each race to the leading contenders in each category.
What races are all but decided? Which ones remain very much up in the air? Let’s dig in.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Leading contenders: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (153 AXE) vs. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (144)
Next eight: 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (142); 4. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (135); 5. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (132); 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (131); 7. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (130); 8. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (129); 9. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros, Cody Bellinger, Yankees, Maikel Garcia, Royals (128)
ESPN BET top two: Judge (-350, 78% chance of winning), Raleigh (+200)
Sizing up the race: This race is closer than AXE and the odds suggest. In fact, it would not surprise me if they are wrong altogether. Either way, the chase isn’t over.
It shouldn’t be controversial to suggest that Judge has had the better offensive season despite Raleigh’s historic home run pace and league-leading RBI total. His percentages are decidedly better across the board, and even if you contextualize for playing venue, Judge has a 40-point edge in OPS+ and, at FanGraphs, a 37-point bulge in wRC+. Raleigh has played in more games, but Judge has still created 31 more runs while using 68 fewer outs. Judge also leads AL hitters in both win probability added and championship probability added. Raleigh ranks fifth in both stats, which are folded into the AXE calculations.
After that, a number of factors tilt toward Raleigh. As a catcher, Raleigh plays a more valuable defensive position and has played it very well. FanGraphs ranks him as the fourth-most valuable defender in the AL. Of course, a chunk of that is due to pitch-framing metrics, which are measured differently at Baseball Reference, which is why Judge has a more commanding lead in that site’s version of WAR.
Then we come to factors of narrative. Raleigh might be having the best season a catcher has ever had. He already has crushed the single-season record for home runs by a backstop and is on the cusp of passing the record for switch-hitters set 64 years ago by Mickey-freaking-Mantle. If that happens, and if Raleigh gets to 60 homers — as a catcher — and does so on a playoff team, how does he not win MVP?
How it can flip: Raleigh has hit .208 since the All-Star break, and as his season average slips downward, soon to drop under .240, you do wonder if he’s vulnerable to an end-of-season crash. He is a catcher after all, and as much as the Mariners try to give him DH days to take the load off, he might be wearing down. If he flails from here and the Mariners miss the playoffs, a typical finish from Judge might be enough to convince voters their heads should never have turned toward Raleigh in the first place.
Prediction: Raleigh breaks Mantle’s record, doesn’t reach 60 homers, but keeps his numbers just strong enough to fend off Judge at the finish line.
National League
Leading contenders: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (152 AXE) vs. Juan Soto, New York Mets (140)
Next eight: 3. Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (138); 4. (tie) Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs, Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres, Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (135); 7. (tie) Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, Mets (132); 9. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (131); 10. (tie) Will Smith, Dodgers, Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks, Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers, Nico Hoerner, Cubs, Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (127)
ESPN BET top two: Ohtani (-25000, 99.6% chance of winning), Schwarber (+2500)
Sizing up the race: Ohtani seems to have a stranglehold on this one, especially since the betting markets favor Schwarber as his leading challenger. Nothing against Schwarber, who is having an epic season, but the metrics don’t support that at all.
Although the leaderboard happily stretches down to Schwarber’s spot because of ties, you can see that it’s basically Ohtani and everybody else. He combines Schwarber’s power in the slugging and homer categories with virtually all of Soto’s on-base mastery. Soto is having a shockingly prolific season in the steals category, but given that Ohtani has lapped the field in runs scored, he still wins the baserunning part of the race. And, oh yeah, Ohtani tacks on 36 innings of excellent pitching (2.17 FIP), giving him plenty of defensive value as opposed to the negative fielding metrics of both Soto and Schwarber, primarily a DH.
On the contextual side, Ohtani leads the NL in win probability added and championship probability added. Soto is second in both categories, and Schwarber is out of the top 10. Again: Advantage Shohei.
How it can flip: Ohtani appears to have his fourth MVP trophy — and third straight — all but in the bag. Only Barry Bonds (seven) has won more often. And only Bonds, who won each season from 2001 to 2004, has won three seasons in a row. As for the others, of all the names on the leaderboard, Turner had been the hottest of late, but his quest to land at No. 2 by season’s end has been quashed by his hamstring injury.
Prediction: Ohtani in a landslide.
Cy Young
American League
Leading contenders: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (146 AXE) vs. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (139)
Next eight: 3. Hunter Brown, Astros (135); 4. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (128); 5. Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles (127); 6. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (125); 8. (tie) Max Fried, Yankees, Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox (123); 10. (tie) Michael Wacha, Royals, Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays (122)
ESPN BET top two: Skubal (-4000, 97.6% chance of winning), Crochet (+1600)
Sizing up the race: This race remains alive, according to AXE, though Skubal has the edge in all of the bottom-line metrics. The betting markets are a little more emphatic, and those reflect an anticipation of how things will play out from here.
Both ace lefties have seemingly picked up momentum as the season has progressed. Over the past month, Crochet is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a ridiculous K-to-BB ratio of 40-to-2 over 33 innings. And yet he has gained no ground on Skubal, who is 2-1 with a 1.04 ERA over the same time frame with a more human 35-to-7 ratio.
The two leading versions of WAR can be maddeningly inconsistent on the pitching side, but both systems give Skubal more than a full-win advantage over Crochet. Crochet does hold a narrow advantage in win probability added, but Skubal tops the AL in championship probability added.
How it can flip: The race is clearly Skubal’s to lose, but he needs to keep doing what he’s doing, because the margins are close enough for Crochet to overtake him. For both hurlers, every start from here on out is crucial.
Prediction: Skubal should hold on, if only because he has shown zero evidence of slowing down his epic pace. Unless Skubal struggles, there seems to be no opening for Crochet to squeeze through, no matter how well he pitches.
National League
Leading contenders: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (142 AXE) vs. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (142)
Next eight: 3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (131); 4. (tie) Freddy Peralta, Brewers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (129); 6. (tie) Nick Pivetta, Padres, Ranger Suarez, Phillies (128); 8. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (126); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (125); 10. (tie) Jesus Luzardo, Phillies, Nick Lodolo, Reds (123)
ESPN BET top two: Skenes (-20000, 99.5% chance of winning), Sanchez (+1600)
Sizing up the race: The betting markets see Skenes as having an almost Ohtani-like grip on this race. The metrics see it as a dead heat. I tend to think the latter is closer to true than the former, but the markets are typically a reliable indicator.
Both versions of WAR give Skenes a narrow edge over Sanchez. However, the systems are really confusing when stacked up against each other, with both favorites showing around a full win more value at Baseball Reference than at FanGraphs. That’s nothing to Peralta, the hottest pitcher on the list when compared with our past Awards Watch, whose Baseball Reference WAR is two wins higher than at FanGraphs. This is a prime example of how frustrating the disparities between the systems can be when, after all, they profess to measure the same thing, using the same framework, under precisely the same “wins above replacement” label.
Skenes has an edge in win probability added over Sanchez, who ranks third (San Diego reliever Adrian Morejon is second). But since Skenes toils for a last-place team, Sanchez’s league-leading championship probability added total leaves Skenes (ranked 51st in the NL) in the dust.
It isn’t Skenes’ fault that his team stinks, but it’s precisely why I included championship probability in the calculation. It’s designed to be more of a tiebreaker than anything. If the overall value produced by two players is similar, it seems logical to consider the contexts in which they put up that value.
So, are the overall performances close? Yes, very. Skenes’ sub-2.00 ERA is eye-catching and is likely the number that tags him as the favorite. But his edge in FIP (2.42 to 2.59) is narrow, which explains why he and Sanchez are close in WAR. Their volumes are similar.
How it can flip: It’s a tough call, and if both pitchers should falter down the stretch, Peralta still has a chance to sneak in. But they’d have to struggle because volume (i.e., innings pitched) is a huge factor in today’s pitching environment. Skenes and Sanchez have separated themselves in terms of combining quantity and quality.
Prediction: We probably shouldn’t overthink it. Skenes is the NL’s best pitcher, which isn’t always the same thing as “most deserving Cy Young candidate,” but in this case the two descriptions line up well. The Pirates haven’t backed Skenes off his usual workload, so if he makes the rest of his starts and keeps that ERA under 2.00, Sanchez faces an uphill battle.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (127 AXE) vs. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (117)
Next eight: 3. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (116); 4. (tie) Noah Cameron, Royals, Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (113); 6. Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox (111); 7. Kyle Teel, White Sox (109); 8. Luke Keaschall, Twins (108); 9. Mike Vasil, White Sox (107); 10. (tie) Jack Leiter, Rangers, Will Warren, Yankees, Shane Smith, White Sox
ESPN BET top two: Kurtz (-50000, 99.8% chance of winning), Anthony (+4000)
Sizing up the race: Anthony is listed above as a leading contender for display purposes only, because this race is over. Kurtz was a heavy favorite already, but the oblique injury that is expected to sideline Anthony for the rest of the regular season sealed the deal. As Klingon Commander Kor said to Captain James T. Kirk, “It would have been glorious.”
You can’t really win a season award in baseball because of one game. But in Kurtz’s case, his four-homer game against Houston on July 25, in which he had six hits, scored six runs and tied the single-game total base record, comes pretty close. At the very least, it puts his name at the forefront in the minds of voters looking at this season’s rookie class.
At this point, Kurtz’s race is against history. His 1.021 OPS ranks as the fifth best among AL or NL rookies since 1900. The list is topped by Judge’s 1.049 in 2017. Kurtz would have to get blistering hot from here, but it’s not impossible. In terms of OPS+, Kurtz’s 177 currently tops them all, with Jose Abreu‘s 173 in 2014 the current end-of-season mark.
You can do this all day, but just a little more: Kurtz’s per-162-game line is currently .301/.397/.624 with 47 homers, 118 RBIs and 123 runs. The dude is 22 years old.
How it can flip: The universe is a complex, unpredictable thing, but at the moment, it’s hard to see any scenario that doesn’t end with Kurtz becoming the Athletics’ ninth Rookie of the Year and first since Andrew Bailey in 2009.
Prediction: Kurtz in a unanimous vote.
National League
Leading contenders: Isaac Collins, Brewers (115 AXE) vs. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (113)
Next eight: 3. Caleb Durbin, Brewers (111); 4. (tie) Cade Horton, Cubs, Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (110); 6. Chad Patrick, Brewers (109); 7. (tie) Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates, Matt Shaw, Cubs, Jack Dreyer, Dodgers (107); 10. (tie) Hurston Waldrep, Braves, Nolan McLean, Mets (106)
ESPN BET top three: Horton (-115, 54% chance of winning), Baldwin (+125), Collins (+600)
Sizing up the race: The markets recently bumped Horton up into favorite’s status but don’t seem to be very convicted about it. The markets aren’t wrong; this race has been a hodgepodge all season. Last time, I drolly suggested the award just go to the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s not entirely a joke. I track team WAR from rookies using a consensus between Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Here’s the leaderboard:
1. White Sox (11.55 rookie WAR)
2. Brewers (7.61)
3. Red Sox (5.65)
4. Athletics (5.50)
5. Braves (4.11)
The White Sox have wisely gone all-in with deploying rookies in this rebuilding season, but the Brewers are the best team in baseball. Three Brewers rookies are in the above top 10, and the electric Jacob Misiorowski isn’t far off the pace. (Incidentally, on a recent trip to Milwaukee, I learned that Misiorowski’s family dog is named after Kevin Bacon, which merits extra credit.)
All of this is to avoid the topic at hand, because I really don’t know who should win this race. But I do think that Collins, as the leading representative of the NL’s top rookie class, is deserving for now. But now is a fleeting concept, and Horton is the hottest two-times-through-the-order pitcher on the planet.
Also, you’ll notice that McLean’s 4-1, 1.42 ERA start to his career has already pushed him into the top 10. He probably can’t win?
How it can flip: The markets have picked up on how hot Horton is, and if all current trends continue (which they of course will not), he’ll probably win. Over his past nine outings, Horton is 6-1 with a 0.77 ERA.
Prediction: Horton has allowed less than a run every other start since the All-Star break. If he maintains anything close to that pace, he’ll win. Otherwise, give it to a Brewer.
Manager of the Year
American League
Leading contenders: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (108.3 EARL) vs. John Schneider, Blue Jays (107.8)
Next three: 3. Joe Espada, Astros (107.0); 4. Ray Montgomery/Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (106.3); 5. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.2)
Sizing up the race: ESPN BET doesn’t help us with the manager races, but these standings make sense. It truly feels like a coin flip between Hinch and Schneider at this point.
How it can flip: EARL gives Hinch the razor-thin edge, but it probably comes down to which team lands the top overall seed in the AL bracket. Thus, the end of the season will determine this race. For what it’s worth, Hinch’s club has a hammerlock on the AL Central title, while Schneider’s Blue Jays have plenty of work to do in holding off the Yankees and Red Sox.
Prediction: Hinch’s Tigers will land that top seed and give him the leg up in the awards balloting. It would be his first Manager of the Year Award after five previous top-five finishes in the balloting.
National League
Leading contenders: Pat Murphy, Brewers (113.7 EARL) vs. Clayton McCullough, Marlins (106.9)
Next three: 3. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.1); 4. Rob Thomson, Phillies (103.9); 5. Craig Counsell, Cubs (103.4)
Sizing up the race: Murphy is going to win his second straight NL Manager of the Year Award. Everything works in his favor. The Brewers have thumped their preseason projections and are likely to enter the playoffs as the top overall seed. They are 26-17 in one-run games. They have all those rookies. And they play a team-oriented style built on contributions from a number of unsung role players.
Among the others, Counsell is most likely to finish second. McCullough has a tiny edge by EARL, but the Marlins’ recent pitching collapse has his trajectory arrow pointed downward.
How it can flip: The only way for this outlook to change is a Brewers collapse paired with an epic Cubs finish that allows Chicago to overcome its huge NL Central deficit and win the division. Otherwise, Murphy will once again outshine the guy he coached at Notre Dame and with whom he later worked as the bench coach in Milwaukee.
Prediction: A Murph runaway.
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