The race to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader could be won and lost in Birmingham over the next few days.
The “beauty contest” involving the remaining candidates at the party conference has the potential to transform one of the not-so-famous four from also-ran to front-runner.
Robert Jenrick, ahead among Conservative MPs, has the early momentum and is a slick performer. But could one of his rivals – Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly or Tom Tugendhat – dramatically upset the odds?
It has happened before, spectacularly, when outsider David Cameron made the speech of his life at a leadership “beauty contest” in 2005 and overtook the early favourite, David Davis, to snatch victory and seize the Tory crown.
Looking ahead to Birmingham, one conference veteran has told Sky News it’ll be “shine – or crash!” and is almost salivating at the prospect of the foursome facing Tory activists under the glare of live TV cameras and the scrutiny of party grandees and power brokers.
No pressure, then, on the one lady and trio of gentlemen on parade. This is crunch time in the leadership battle: a penalty shoot-out in a long – critics claim too long – and bruising campaign.
Or to use another footballing analogy, as Sir Alex Ferguson used to say to describe buttock-clenching tension, it’s “squeaky bum time”.
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In 2005, the now Lord Cameron shone with a brilliantly delivered, upbeat speech: no notes, no lectern and a relaxed, casual stroll around the stage of Blackpool’s iconic Winter Gardens. The ovation was long and loud.
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Mr Davis didn’t crash, to be fair. But in comparison, his speech, though respectable, was workmanlike. The two contrasting speeches were a turning point in the leadership campaign.
Image: David Cameron sought to be leader of his party after the 2005 election. Pic: PA
This time, the contest begins with a “fireside chat” and members’ questions for an hour with each candidate. On Monday, it’s Mr Tugendhat and Ms Badenoch, and on Tuesday, Mr Jenrick and Mr Cleverly.
Then Wednesday is the big day, with four “stump speeches” of 20 minutes each. This time the order is expected to be Mr Tugendhat, Mr Cleverly, Mr Jenrick and Ms Badenoch.
Recalling the 2005 conference in his memoirs, Lord Cameron wrote: “The week in Blackpool was undoubtedly one of the most exciting of my life.
“The acoustics were good, the hall was packed and the audience was close to the stage. The atmosphere and the potential were tangible.”
Surprisingly, given the reception his speech received, Lord Cameron believed it wasn’t as good as the one he made at his campaign launch a few days earlier.
“But many more people saw it,” he acknowledged, “as it was carried live on television and reprised on the evening news.”
Indeed it was.
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I vividly remember reporting on the speech for Sky News and describing it as “electrifying” – a verdict Mr Cameron’s team gleefully reported in their leadership campaign newsletter the following morning.
The speech was what we later grew accustomed to. Classic Cameron, full of hope and optimism, all sunny and cheerful. It included these lines:
“I joined this party because I love my country…
“I joined this party because I believe in freedom…
“I joined this party because I believe in aspiration…
“I want people to feel good about being a Conservative again.”
And in words that could have been spoken by Sir Keir Starmer about changing the Labour Party, he added: “We have to change… we’ve got to change our culture so we look, feel, think and behave like a completely new organisation.”
Reflecting on the speech in his memoirs, Lord Cameron wrote: “What impressed many people was that I delivered it without notes, having memorised it as we drafted it. Watching it now, I find it rather wooden, but it worked.”
It certainly did. “Within a single day,” Lord Cameron wrote, “the polls were transformed: support for me surged from 16% to 39%, while for Davis it collapsed from 30% to 14%”.
It was a stunning turnaround. Could something like that happen this year in Birmingham?
Image: David Davis saw his supporters wearing ‘it’s DD for me’ T-shirts ahead of his conference speech in 2005. Pic: Reuters
In 2005, although leadership candidates Kenneth Clarke, Liam Fox and Malcolm Rifkind were also on parade in the Winter Gardens, the contest was seen as a two-horse race, with Mr Davis – still in the Commons to this day aged 75 – out in front.
But Mr Davis wasn’t all that was out in front. Mr Cameron’s reputation as the moderniser in the race was helped by his rival parading young women supporters in tight-fitting T-shirts proclaiming “It’s DD for me”.
Headline writers called it “a storm in a DD-cup”. And nearly 20 years on, we’re unlikely to see a repeat of that sort of campaigning.
But will one of the four leadership candidates repeat Lord Cameron’s Tory conference triumph of 2005 that propelled him to the leadership?
It’s entirely possible. Don’t bet against it. But which candidate will it be?
Child poverty is set to increase under a Labour government for the first time in history and an “alternative path” is needed to stop the rise of Reform UK, Sir Keir Starmer has been warned.
A joint statement signed by former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and other cross-party MPs calls for a wealth tax on those with assets over £10m “so we can rebuild our schools and hospitals”.
The letter, in response to Rachel Reeves’s spring statement, says the chancellor has made a “choice” to push more disabled people and children into poverty by announcing departmental spending cuts while increasing money invested into defence.
“This isn’t about scarcity, it’s about priorities”, it said, adding: “This is set to be the first Labour government in history under which child poverty increases.
“Labour’s failure has paved the way for Reform. We need an alternative path.
“Parroting the rhetoric of Reform UK on migrants, minorities and Muslims just endorses their scapegoating and makes society worse for us all.”
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As well as Mr Corbyn, who is now an independent MP, the statement was signed by suspended Labour MPs Sarah Zultana and Apsana Begum, Green MPs, independents and other figures calling for “progressive politics”.
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11:44
Corbyn blasts Labour over ‘austerity’
It comes ahead of the launch of Reform UK’s local election campaign on Friday, with the party hoping to make gains in May after overtaking Labour in multiple polls.
The letter describes the “alternative path” as one where the richest in society and multinational companies face higher taxes, rent controls are brought in, water and energy are nationalised and money is invested “in welfare, not warfare”.
These measures have previously been ruled out by Ms Reeves, but she is coming under pressure following her spring statement on Wednesday.
Spring statement takeaways
The economic update included a £2.2bn increase in defence spending over the next year to help the government reach its goal of spending 2.5% of GDP on defence by 2027.
The chancellor also deepened previously announced welfare cuts alongside further departmental spending reductions to make up for £10bn in lost fiscal headroom since her October budget, caused by poor growth and global instability.
The government’s own impact assessment estimates another 250,000 people – including 50,000 children – could be pushed into relative poverty by 2030 because of the measures.
However Ms Reeves said that assessment did not take into account steps the government was taking to get people back into work. She has also rejected a separate analysis that suggests the average family could be £1,400 a year worse off by the end of the decade.
Labour MPs unhappy
Several Labour MPs have spoken out against the cuts and some have said they will vote against them. However Ms Reeves is believed to have staved off a full-scale rebellion for now, as most trust she is serious about getting the nation’s finances back on track.
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10:47
Chancellor defends welfare cuts
The chancellor is determined to stick to her self-imposed fiscal rules, including using tax receipts rather than borrowing to account for day-to-day spending.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned tax rises are likely in the autumn as Ms Reeves has left herself vulnerable to forecast changes, speculating that pensioners and the wealthiest could be targeted in the raid.
Earlier this week, a YouGov poll found three quarters of the British public would support tax rises on the very richest over expected cuts to public spending,including a2% wealth tax on net assets worth more than £10m.
The amount of sewage being dumped into English rivers remains “disgraceful”, despite improved monitoring, supposed investment by water companies and threats of penalties from government, the latest data reveals.
Overall, there was a 2.9% decrease in the number of sewage spills last year compared to 2023, according to water company data collected and analysed by the Environment Agency.
Despite this small improvement in the number of events, the duration of spills – the amount of time a water treatment plant discharges untreated sewage into a river or the sea – increased by 0.2%.
“This year’s data shows we are still a long way off where we need to be to stop unnecessary sewage pollution,” said Alan Lovell, chair of the Environment Agency.
The EA says it has secured £10.2bn from water companies to reduce sewage dumping.
“While these improvements get under way, we expect water companies to do what customers pay it to do: ensure their existing assets are maintained and operating properly,” said Mr Lovell.
‘Stark reminder’
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The latest data is bad, if not unexpected news, for the government.
“These figures are disgraceful and are a stark reminder of how years of underinvestment have led to water companies discharging unacceptable levels of sewage into our rivers, lakes and seas,” said Environment Secretary Steve Reed.
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8:00
Redgrave calls for river clean up
The government says part of its £100bn public infrastructure investment plans will address water pollution.
But repairing or replacing thousands of miles of ageing water pipes and dilapidated water treatment works, as well as building new ones, is expected to take decades.
This year, it also introduced the Water (Special Measures) Act which it said it would use to get “tough” on water companies.
The bill allows for the banning of bonuses for water company bosses failing to meet targets and allows criminal charges to be brought against companies in breach of the law.
The government, however, may soon find itself in the stink.
Last week, environment watchdog the Office for Environmental Protection (OEP) announced it was launching an investigation into whether proposed plans from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) to clean up waterways are in breach of the law.
The OEP is to decide whether DEFRA’s plans, implemented by the Environment Agency and the water regulator Ofwat, are too generic and fail to address the environmental risk of sewage pollution at particular sites.
England, for example, is home to the majority of the world’s chalk stream rivers and streams that are particularly sensitive to sewage pollution.
‘Still broken’
For clean water campaigners, the latest data is just more of the same.
“The water industry is still broken,” said James Wallace, chief executive of River Action.
He added: “The numbers are staggering: over 3.6 million hours of sewage spills from almost 450,000 discharges.
“That’s equivalent to 412 continuous years of sewage polluting our rivers, lakes and seas.”
The frustration for consumers is that many of us will see significant increases to our bills in order to finance the investments being demanded by Ofwat and the government to meet pollution targets.
Last year, an independent Water Commission was launched by the government.
Led by Sir Jon Cunliffe, it is charged with coming up with long-term reforms for the way water companies are regulated.
The commission should look at the structure and ownership of water companies themselves, according to campaigners.
“[It] must put an end to this failed privatisation experiment and force real reform of the industry and regulators,” said Mr Wallace.
“We need to learn from our European neighbours, and use finance and governance models that put people and nature before investors.”
UK greenhouse gas emissions fell by 3.5% last year compared with 2023, according to provisional government figures.
The Energy Department (DESNZ) said climate-warming emissions generated in the UK were 371.4 million tonnes of carbon equivalent in 2024.
That’s down from 385 million tonnes in 2023 and 406 million tonnes in 2022.
The latest figure is 54% lower than in 1990.
As a signatory to the 2015 Paris Agreement, the UK is aiming to reduce emissionsby 68% by 2030 and 81% by 2035 compared with 1990 levels.
The aim is to get to net-zero by 2050, meaning Britain would no longer be adding to the total amount of gases in the atmosphere.
DESNZ said the fall was largely due to reductions from the electricity supply and industry sectors, which made up 10% and 13% of emissions respectively.
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Electricity supply drove the largest share of the reduction, as more electricity imports and increased renewable generation led to lower gas and coal use in power stations.
Jane Cooper, RenewableUK’s deputy chief executive, said: “These new figures show the pace at which our energy system is changing, benefiting billpayers and the climate.
“The UK is moving away rapidly from fossil fuels to low-cost renewables which bring down consumer bills, with wind providing the bulk of our clean power.”
Doug Parr, Greenpeace UK’s policy director, said it showed “the UK’s efforts to tackle climate change are working”.
However, he said that “while emissions are falling, we’re still very much dependent on expensive and polluting gas for our energy”.
“The government must put a stop to the great gas rip-off and rapidly make renewables the backbone of our energy system to lower our bills for good,” Mr Parr added.