The race to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader could be won and lost in Birmingham over the next few days.
The “beauty contest” involving the remaining candidates at the party conference has the potential to transform one of the not-so-famous four from also-ran to front-runner.
Robert Jenrick, ahead among Conservative MPs, has the early momentum and is a slick performer. But could one of his rivals – Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly or Tom Tugendhat – dramatically upset the odds?
It has happened before, spectacularly, when outsider David Cameron made the speech of his life at a leadership “beauty contest” in 2005 and overtook the early favourite, David Davis, to snatch victory and seize the Tory crown.
Looking ahead to Birmingham, one conference veteran has told Sky News it’ll be “shine – or crash!” and is almost salivating at the prospect of the foursome facing Tory activists under the glare of live TV cameras and the scrutiny of party grandees and power brokers.
No pressure, then, on the one lady and trio of gentlemen on parade. This is crunch time in the leadership battle: a penalty shoot-out in a long – critics claim too long – and bruising campaign.
Or to use another footballing analogy, as Sir Alex Ferguson used to say to describe buttock-clenching tension, it’s “squeaky bum time”.
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In 2005, the now Lord Cameron shone with a brilliantly delivered, upbeat speech: no notes, no lectern and a relaxed, casual stroll around the stage of Blackpool’s iconic Winter Gardens. The ovation was long and loud.
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Mr Davis didn’t crash, to be fair. But in comparison, his speech, though respectable, was workmanlike. The two contrasting speeches were a turning point in the leadership campaign.
Image: David Cameron sought to be leader of his party after the 2005 election. Pic: PA
This time, the contest begins with a “fireside chat” and members’ questions for an hour with each candidate. On Monday, it’s Mr Tugendhat and Ms Badenoch, and on Tuesday, Mr Jenrick and Mr Cleverly.
Then Wednesday is the big day, with four “stump speeches” of 20 minutes each. This time the order is expected to be Mr Tugendhat, Mr Cleverly, Mr Jenrick and Ms Badenoch.
Recalling the 2005 conference in his memoirs, Lord Cameron wrote: “The week in Blackpool was undoubtedly one of the most exciting of my life.
“The acoustics were good, the hall was packed and the audience was close to the stage. The atmosphere and the potential were tangible.”
Surprisingly, given the reception his speech received, Lord Cameron believed it wasn’t as good as the one he made at his campaign launch a few days earlier.
“But many more people saw it,” he acknowledged, “as it was carried live on television and reprised on the evening news.”
Indeed it was.
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I vividly remember reporting on the speech for Sky News and describing it as “electrifying” – a verdict Mr Cameron’s team gleefully reported in their leadership campaign newsletter the following morning.
The speech was what we later grew accustomed to. Classic Cameron, full of hope and optimism, all sunny and cheerful. It included these lines:
“I joined this party because I love my country…
“I joined this party because I believe in freedom…
“I joined this party because I believe in aspiration…
“I want people to feel good about being a Conservative again.”
And in words that could have been spoken by Sir Keir Starmer about changing the Labour Party, he added: “We have to change… we’ve got to change our culture so we look, feel, think and behave like a completely new organisation.”
Reflecting on the speech in his memoirs, Lord Cameron wrote: “What impressed many people was that I delivered it without notes, having memorised it as we drafted it. Watching it now, I find it rather wooden, but it worked.”
It certainly did. “Within a single day,” Lord Cameron wrote, “the polls were transformed: support for me surged from 16% to 39%, while for Davis it collapsed from 30% to 14%”.
It was a stunning turnaround. Could something like that happen this year in Birmingham?
Image: David Davis saw his supporters wearing ‘it’s DD for me’ T-shirts ahead of his conference speech in 2005. Pic: Reuters
In 2005, although leadership candidates Kenneth Clarke, Liam Fox and Malcolm Rifkind were also on parade in the Winter Gardens, the contest was seen as a two-horse race, with Mr Davis – still in the Commons to this day aged 75 – out in front.
But Mr Davis wasn’t all that was out in front. Mr Cameron’s reputation as the moderniser in the race was helped by his rival parading young women supporters in tight-fitting T-shirts proclaiming “It’s DD for me”.
Headline writers called it “a storm in a DD-cup”. And nearly 20 years on, we’re unlikely to see a repeat of that sort of campaigning.
But will one of the four leadership candidates repeat Lord Cameron’s Tory conference triumph of 2005 that propelled him to the leadership?
It’s entirely possible. Don’t bet against it. But which candidate will it be?
It’s like The Godfather, one reformed drug trafficker tells me.
The mythical gangster film centred on an organised crime dynasty locked in a transfer of power.
Communities in Scotland currently have a front row seat to a new war of violence, torture, and taunts as feuding drug lords and notorious families grapple for control of Glasgow and Edinburgh.
There have been more than a dozen brutal attacks over the past six weeks – ranging from fire bombings to attacks on children and gun violence.
Image: A firebomb attack in Scotland
Victims left for dead, businesses up in flames
Gangsters have filmed themselves setting fire to buildings and homes connected to the associates and relatives of their bitter rivals.
The main aim, they boast, is to “exterminate” the opposition.
The taunting footage, accompanied by the song Keep On Running by The Spencer Davis Group, has been plastered over social media as part of a deliberate game of goading.
Garages and businesses have gone up in flames. Shots were fired at an Edinburgh house.
Signals are being sent of who wants control of Scotland’s dark criminal underworld.
Image: A firebomb attack that saw a man throw an incendiary device through a building window
Image: The fire attack set to the song Keep On Running by The Spencer Davis Group
What’s caused the gang war?
The former director of the Scottish Crime and Drug Enforcement Agency, Graeme Pearson, explains how a “vacuum of leadership” is playing a part.
Last October, Glasgow-based cocaine kingpin Jamie Stevenson, known as The Iceman, was jailed after orchestrating a £100m cocaine shipment stashed in banana boxes from South America.
The mob leader was one of Britain’s most wanted, running his business like another on-screen criminal enterprise: The Sopranos.
The 59-year-old fugitive went on the run before eventually being hunted and apprehended by police while out jogging in the Netherlands.
Image: Jamie Stevenson. Pic: Police Scotland
Image: Pic: Crown Office
‘Old scores to settle’
But paranoia was running rife about how this notorious gangster could be brought down. Was there a grass? Was it one of their own?
It further fuelled divisions and forced new alliances to be forged across Scotland’s organised criminal networks.
It wasn’t until The Iceman case came to court that it was revealed an encrypted messaging platform, known as EncroChat, had been infiltrated by law enforcement.
It ultimately led to Stevenson pleading guilty.
Ex-senior drug enforcement officer Mr Pearson told Sky News: “It is a complex picture because you have got people who are in prison who still want to have influence outside and look after what was their business.
“On the outside you’ve got wannabes who are coming forward, and they think this is an opportunity for them, and you have got others have old scores to settle that they could not settle when crime bosses were around.”
Mr Pearson describes a toxic mix swirling to create outbursts of violence unfolding in Scotland.
He concluded: “All that mixes together – and the greed for the money that comes from drugs, and from the kudos that comes from being a ‘main man’, and you end up with competition, violence, and the kind of incidents we have seen over the past four to six weeks.”
New wave of violence ‘barbaric’
Glasgow man Mark Dempster is a former addict, dealer, and drug smuggler who is now an author and respected counsellor helping people quit drinking and drugs.
He describes the “jostle for power” as not a new concept among Glasgow’s high profile gangland families.
Image: Mark Dempster
“There is always going to be someone new who wants to control the markets. It is like The Godfather. There is no difference between Scotland, Albania, or India,” he said.
Mr Dempster suggests a shift in tactics in Glasgow and Edinburgh in recent weeks, with 12-year-olds being viciously attacked in the middle of the night.
“It is barbaric. When young people, children, get pulled into the cross fire. It takes it to a different level.
“At least with the old mafiosa they had an unwritten rule that no children, no other family members. You would deal directly with the main people that were your opposition.”
Police Scotland is racing to get control of the situation, but declined to speak to Sky News about its ongoing operation.
It has been suggested 100 officers are working on this case, with “arrests imminent”.
But this is at the very sharp end of sophisticated criminal empires where the police are not feared, there are fierce vendettas and, clearly, power is up for grabs.
Laws may need to be strengthened to crack down on the exploitation of child “influencers”, a senior Labour MP has warned.
Chi Onwurah, chair of the science, technology and innovation committee, said parts of the Online Safety Act – passed in October 2023 – may already be “obsolete or inadequate”.
Experts have raised concerns that there is a lack of provision in industry laws for children who earn money through brand collaborations on social media when compared to child actors and models.
This has led to some children advertising in their underwear on social media, one expert has claimed.
Those working in more traditional entertainment fields are safeguarded by performance laws,which strictly govern the hours a minor can work, the money they earn and who they are accompanied by.
The Child Influencer Project, which has curated the world’s first industry guidelines for the group, has warned of a “large gap in UK law” which is not sufficiently filled by new online safety legislation.
Image: Official portrait of Chi Onwurah.
Pic: UK Parlimeant
The group’s research found that child influencers could be exposed to as many as 20 different risks of harm, including to dignity, identity, family life, education, and their health and safety.
Ms Onwurah told Sky News there needs to be a “much clearer understanding of the nature of child influencers ‘work’ and the legal and regulatory framework around it”.
She said: “The safety and welfare of children are at the heart of the Online Safety Act and rightly so.
“However, as we know in a number of areas the act may already be obsolete or inadequate due to the lack of foresight and rigour of the last government.”
Victoria Collins, the Liberal Democrat spokesperson for science, innovation and technology, agreed that regulations “need to keep pace with the times”, with child influencers on social media “protected in the same way” as child actors or models.
“Liberal Democrats would welcome steps to strengthen the Online Safety Act on this front,” she added.
‘Something has to be done’
MPs warned in 2022 that the government should “urgently address the gap in UK child labour and performance regulation that is leaving child influencers without protection”.
They asked for new laws on working hours and conditions, a mandate for the protection of the child’s earnings, a right to erasure and to bring child labour arrangements under the oversight of local authorities.
However, Dr Francis Rees, the principal investigator for the Child Influencer Project, told Sky News that even after the implementation of the Online Safety Act, “there’s still a lot wanting”.
“Something has to be done to make brands more aware of their own duty of care towards kids in this arena,” she said.
Dr Rees added that achieving performances from children on social media “can involve extremely coercive and disruptive practices”.
“We simply have to do more to protect these children who have very little say or understanding of what is really happening. Most are left without a voice and without a choice.”
What is a child influencer – and how are they at risk?
A child influencer is a person under the age of 18 who makes money through social media, whether that is using their image alone or with their family.
Dr Francis Rees, principal investigator for the Child Influencer Project, explains this is an “escalation” from the sharing of digital images and performances of the child into “some form of commercial gain or brand endorsement”.
She said issues can emerge when young people work with brands – who do not have to comply with standard practise for a child influencer as they would with an in-house production.
Dr Rees explains how, when working with a child model or actor, an advertising agency would have to make sure a performance license is in place, and make sure “everything is in accordance with many layers of legislation and regulation around child protection”.
But, outside of a professional environment, these safeguards are not in place.
She notes that 30-second videos “can take as long as three days to practice and rehearse”.
And, Dr Rees suggests, this can have a strain on the parent-child relationship.
“It’s just not as simple as taking a child on to a set and having them perform to a camera which professionals are involved in.”
The researcher pointed to one particular instance, in which children were advertising an underwear brand on social media.
She said: “The kids in the company’s own marketing material or their own media campaigns are either pulling up the band of the underwear underneath their clothing, or they’re holding the underwear up while they’re fully clothed.
“But whenever you look at any of the sponsored content produced by families with children – mum, dad, and child are in their underwear.”
Dr Rees said it is “night and day” in terms of how companies are behaving when they have responsibility for the material, versus “the lack of responsibility once they hand it over to parents with kids”.
Police investigating the disappearance of a woman in South Wales have arrested two people on suspicion of murder.
Paria Veisi, 37, was last seen around 3pm on Saturday 12 April when she left her workplace in the Canton area of Cardiff.
She was driving her car, a black Mercedes GLC 200, which was later found on Dorchester Avenue in the Penylan area on the evening of Tuesday 15 April.
South Wales Police said it was now treating her disappearance as a murder investigation.
A 41-year-old man and a 48-year-old woman, both known to Ms Veisi, have been arrested on suspicion of murder and remain in police custody.
Detective Chief Inspector Matt Powell said he currently had “no proof that Paria is alive”.
The senior investigating officer added: “[Ms Veisi’s] family and friends are extremely concerned that they have not heard from her, which is totally out of character.
“Paria’s family has been informed and we are keeping them updated.
“We have two people in custody, and at this stage we are not looking for anybody else in connection with this investigation.
“Our investigation remains focused on Paria’s movements after she left work in the Canton area on Saturday April 12.
“Extensive CCTV and house-to-house inquiries are being carried out by a team of officers and I am appealing for anybody who has information, no matter how insignificant it may seem, to make contact.”