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The race to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader could be won and lost in Birmingham over the next few days.

The “beauty contest” involving the remaining candidates at the party conference has the potential to transform one of the not-so-famous four from also-ran to front-runner.

Robert Jenrick, ahead among Conservative MPs, has the early momentum and is a slick performer. But could one of his rivals – Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly or Tom Tugendhat – dramatically upset the odds?

It has happened before, spectacularly, when outsider David Cameron made the speech of his life at a leadership “beauty contest” in 2005 and overtook the early favourite, David Davis, to snatch victory and seize the Tory crown.

Looking ahead to Birmingham, one conference veteran has told Sky News it’ll be “shine – or crash!” and is almost salivating at the prospect of the foursome facing Tory activists under the glare of live TV cameras and the scrutiny of party grandees and power brokers.

No pressure, then, on the one lady and trio of gentlemen on parade. This is crunch time in the leadership battle: a penalty shoot-out in a long – critics claim too long – and bruising campaign.

Or to use another footballing analogy, as Sir Alex Ferguson used to say to describe buttock-clenching tension, it’s “squeaky bum time”.

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In 2005, the now Lord Cameron shone with a brilliantly delivered, upbeat speech: no notes, no lectern and a relaxed, casual stroll around the stage of Blackpool’s iconic Winter Gardens. The ovation was long and loud.

Mr Davis didn’t crash, to be fair. But in comparison, his speech, though respectable, was workmanlike. The two contrasting speeches were a turning point in the leadership campaign.

David Cameron sought to be leader of his party after the 2005 election. Pic: PA
Image:
David Cameron sought to be leader of his party after the 2005 election. Pic: PA

This time, the contest begins with a “fireside chat” and members’ questions for an hour with each candidate. On Monday, it’s Mr Tugendhat and Ms Badenoch, and on Tuesday, Mr Jenrick and Mr Cleverly.

Then Wednesday is the big day, with four “stump speeches” of 20 minutes each. This time the order is expected to be Mr Tugendhat, Mr Cleverly, Mr Jenrick and Ms Badenoch.

Recalling the 2005 conference in his memoirs, Lord Cameron wrote: “The week in Blackpool was undoubtedly one of the most exciting of my life.

“The acoustics were good, the hall was packed and the audience was close to the stage. The atmosphere and the potential were tangible.”

Surprisingly, given the reception his speech received, Lord Cameron believed it wasn’t as good as the one he made at his campaign launch a few days earlier.

“But many more people saw it,” he acknowledged, “as it was carried live on television and reprised on the evening news.”

Indeed it was.

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I vividly remember reporting on the speech for Sky News and describing it as “electrifying” – a verdict Mr Cameron’s team gleefully reported in their leadership campaign newsletter the following morning.

The speech was what we later grew accustomed to. Classic Cameron, full of hope and optimism, all sunny and cheerful. It included these lines:

“I joined this party because I love my country…

“I joined this party because I believe in freedom…

“I joined this party because I believe in aspiration…

“I want people to feel good about being a Conservative again.”

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Tory rivals could get yellow card for bashing each other
Which candidate is most popular with the public?

And in words that could have been spoken by Sir Keir Starmer about changing the Labour Party, he added: “We have to change… we’ve got to change our culture so we look, feel, think and behave like a completely new organisation.”

Reflecting on the speech in his memoirs, Lord Cameron wrote: “What impressed many people was that I delivered it without notes, having memorised it as we drafted it. Watching it now, I find it rather wooden, but it worked.”

It certainly did. “Within a single day,” Lord Cameron wrote, “the polls were transformed: support for me surged from 16% to 39%, while for Davis it collapsed from 30% to 14%”.

It was a stunning turnaround. Could something like that happen this year in Birmingham?

David Davis (C) talks with supporters Donata Huggins (L) and Zoe Aylward at the annual party conference in Blackpool in northern England
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David Davis saw his supporters wearing ‘it’s DD for me’ T-shirts ahead of his conference speech in 2005. Pic: Reuters

In 2005, although leadership candidates Kenneth Clarke, Liam Fox and Malcolm Rifkind were also on parade in the Winter Gardens, the contest was seen as a two-horse race, with Mr Davis – still in the Commons to this day aged 75 – out in front.

But Mr Davis wasn’t all that was out in front. Mr Cameron’s reputation as the moderniser in the race was helped by his rival parading young women supporters in tight-fitting T-shirts proclaiming “It’s DD for me”.

Headline writers called it “a storm in a DD-cup”. And nearly 20 years on, we’re unlikely to see a repeat of that sort of campaigning.

But will one of the four leadership candidates repeat Lord Cameron’s Tory conference triumph of 2005 that propelled him to the leadership?

It’s entirely possible. Don’t bet against it. But which candidate will it be?

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Manchester synagogue attack: Families pay tribute to ‘kind and heroic’ victims – as police arrest three more suspects

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Manchester synagogue attack: Families pay tribute to 'kind and heroic' victims - as police arrest three more suspects

The families of the two victims of the Manchester synagogue attack have paid tribute to them as “heroic, beloved and cherished”.

Adrian Daulby, 53, and Melvin Cravitz, 66, were killed in the attack at Heaton Park synagogue in Crumpsall on Thursday.

Mr Daulby, a member of the congregation, was shot accidentally when police opened fire on attacker Jihad al Shamie.

The synagogue’s rabbi told Sky News it happened as Mr Daulby “was holding the doors to make sure everyone inside stayed safe”.

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Hero held doors closed to keep everyone safe, rabbi says

His family said he was a “hero” and a “lovely down-to-earth man” whose “final act was one of profound courage and he will forever be remembered for his heroic act”.

The family of Mr Cravitz – a security guard at the synagogue who was attending the service – said he would “do anything to help anyone”.

“He was so kind, caring and always wanted to chat and get to know people,” they said.

“He was devoted to his wife, family and loved his food. He will be sorely missed by his wife, family, friends and community.”

Adrian Daulby. Pic: Family handout
Image:
Adrian Daulby. Pic: Family handout

The tributes came as police said three more people – a man and two women – had been arrested on suspicion of terror offences, bringing the total to six.

They also revealed the attacker had been on bail over a suspected rape, but wasn’t on the radar of counter-terror police.

The Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) is investigating the shooting – standard practice when a member of the public is killed.

The investigation would include “whether police may have caused or contributed to the death” of Mr Daulby.

Sir Stephen Watson, the head of Greater Manchester police, confirmed Mr Daulby’s injury appeared to be “a tragic and unforeseen consequence of the urgently required action taken by my officers”.

‘Gentle giant’

Other relatives of Mr Cravitz told Sky News he was a “gentle giant” who “would never harm a fly”.

His cousin, Phil Bentley, said his death was even more tragic as he would never normally be at the synagogue that early.

Melvin Cravitz. Pic: GMP
Image:
Melvin Cravitz. Pic: GMP

Hindi Cohen, a friend and neighbour, said he was a “lovely man” with a good sense of humour, adding: “Our kids loved him. He called himself uncle Melvin to my kids.”

One of Mr Daulby’s neighbours was also emphatic in his praise for a man he lived next door to for 20 years.

Abdul Rahimi called him “one of the best guys I’ve ever seen in my life” and a “very, very good man”, who often bought books and toys for children on their street.

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Synagogue attack victim was a ‘fantastic guy’

Another neighbour, Waqas Hussain, said the pair bonded over a shared love of nature, animals and birds.

He said Mr Daulby was a cancer survivor, who lived alone and started going to the synagogue more after his father died a few years ago.

“Just one of them people… so innocent, so approachable and so pure,” he told Sky News.

He said his friend hadn’t been fasting for health reasons and was debating whether or not to go the synagogue on Thursday.

Increased police patrols are being put in place near synagogues across the country following the atrocity.

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Manchester attacker – what we know

Lammy heckled at vigil

Police in London and Manchester have urged people not to hold planned protests in the cities this weekend so they can keep officers free.

A vigil for the victims was also held in Manchester on Friday – but Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy walked out to shouts of “shame on you” and boos from a few in the crowd.

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Deputy PM heckled at vigil

“Go to Palestine but leave us alone,” one person shouted.

Another protester shouted “my children’s school was closed today – you allowed this to happen.”

Read more:
Ex-minister says father-in-law was at synagogue attack
Attacker’s family condemn ‘heinous act’

Thirty-five-year-old Jihad al Shamie was named as the attacker on Thursday and is believed to be of Syrian descent.

He is understood to have been granted British citizenship when he was around 16, having entered the UK as a young child.

Police shot him dead seven minutes after the first emergency call as they feared he was wearing an explosive device – later identified as a fake.

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Timeline: How terror attack unfolded

Three men also remain in hospital after the attack, with two of them named as Yoni Finlay and Andrew Franks.

One suffered a stab wound, a second was hurt after being hit by a car that al Shamie is said to have driven towards the synagogue, and the third suffered a gunshot wound.

One of the injured victims was working for the Community Security Trust (CST), a charity which provides security to the Jewish community.

Its chief executive, Mark Gardner, said: “One of our CST personnel was seriously injured in yesterday’s terror attack at Heaton Park Synagogue.

“We pray for his continuing recovery and salute the courage of all those who helped stop the terrorist from getting into the shul.”

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What we know about Manchester attacker Jihad al Shamie – as his family condemn ‘heinous act’

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What we know about Manchester attacker Jihad al Shamie -  as his family condemn 'heinous act'

The Manchester synagogue attacker was a British citizen of Syrian descent who came to the UK as a small child and had not previously been on the radar of police or MI5.

Jihad al Shamie, 35, was shot dead by armed officers seven minutes after launching a car and knife attack while wearing what appeared to be a vest with an explosive device, which was later found to be fake.

Manchester attack latest: Police on ‘high alert’ across country

Jihad al Shamie
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Jihad al Shamie

Adrian Daulby, 53, and Melvin Cravitz, 66, were killed after he drove at people outside Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue, in Crumpsall, before stabbing a man.

One of the victims killed in yesterday’s attack was shot mistakenly by officers during their attempts to bring the attacker under control, Greater Manchester Police believe.

Three others remain in hospital with serious injuries.

Three people – two men in their 30s and a woman in her 60s – have been arrested on suspicion of the preparation or commission of acts of terrorism.

More on Manchester Synagogue Attack

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Manchester attacker ‘did not stand out’

But Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said it is “too early” to say if there was a terrorist cell behind the attack on Thursday morning, which took place on Yom Kippur, Judaism’s holiest day.

She said al Shamie, who is of Syrian descent, came to the UK as a “small child” and was naturalised as a British citizen in the mid-2000s.

The home secretary also said he was not known to the security services or police and had not been referred to the government’s Prevent anti-radicalisation scheme.

Asked about the attacker’s name on LBC, which presenter Nick Ferrari translated as “struggle of the Syrian”, she said: “I was very surprised to discover that name myself.

“Actually, as a Muslim, I’ve never heard someone being called Jihad, but it is the name that he was born with – that has always been his name.”

Police presence at a property in Langley Crescent, Prestwich.
Pic: PA
Image:
Police presence at a property in Langley Crescent, Prestwich.
Pic: PA

Al Shamie is believed to have lived in a council house in a quiet cul-de-sac in Langley Crescent, Prestwich, around two miles from the scene.

Videos obtained by Sky News show armed police, with a dog and a chainsaw, raiding the address at around 3.30pm on Thursday.

Read more:
Synagogue terror victims named
How the attack unfolded
Worshippers leaving synagogue hear news of attack

In a post on Facebook, apparently from his family, his relatives said the attack “has been a profound shock to us”.

“The al Shamie family in the UK and abroad strongly condemns this heinous act, which targeted peaceful, innocent civilians,” they said.

“We fully distance ourselves from this attack and express our deep shock and sorrow over what has happened.

“Our hearts and thoughts are with the victims and their families, and we pray for their strength and comfort.”

Seen lifting weights

One of al Shamie’s neighbours said: “We used to see him out in the garden working out, doing weights, press-ups.

“He used to change his clothes. One day he would be wearing the full gown, to the floor and the next jeans and pyjama bottoms.”

Geoff Haliwell, 72, told Sky News the property used to be on his window cleaning round and he believed the al Shamie family, including his mother, father and brothers, had lived there for around 20 years.

“There’s no way I could’ve thought they were in any way involved in anything like this,” he said, describing the family as “nice people”.

He said he had also seen Jihad al Shamie use benches to work out and said he would sometimes wear western clothes and at other times “traditional” Syrian dress, but showed no signs of radicalisation.

“[He was a] smashing lad to talk to, just the same as everyone else. He didn’t stand out in any way,” he added.

Another neighbour, Kate McLeish, said she thought al Shamie was “an odd guy” and said he used to park his battered black Kia “quite badly on the road”.

The Syrian British Consortium, an organisation representing Syrians in the UK, said no one in its community networks has been able to identify him or confirm knowing him personally.

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Grandparents of Ethan Ives-Griffiths jailed for two-year-old’s murder

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Grandparents of Ethan Ives-Griffiths jailed for two-year-old's murder

A couple who murdered their two-year-old grandson have been jailed for life.

Michael Ives, 47, and Kerry Ives, 46, were found guilty of his murder and cruelty to a child in July after a trial at Mold Crown Court.

They were jailed for minimum terms of 23 years and 17 years respectively.

Their grandson Ethan Ives-Griffiths was dangerously dehydrated, severely underweight and had 40 visible bruises or marks when he collapsed with a catastrophic head injury at his grandparents’ home in Flintshire, North Wales, on 14 August 2021.

Kerry and Michael Ives were found guilty of Ethan's murder. Pic: North Wales Police/PA
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Kerry and Michael Ives were found guilty of Ethan’s murder. Pic: North Wales Police/PA

Ethan’s mother, Shannon Ives, 28, who had been staying with her son at her parents’ home, was found guilty of causing or allowing his death and child cruelty.

Ethan's mother Shannon Ives. Pic: North Wales Police/PA
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Ethan’s mother Shannon Ives. Pic: North Wales Police/PA

The court heard Ethan was made to stand with his hands on his head as a punishment when he misbehaved.

CCTV footage shown to jurors during the trial showed Michael Ives carrying his grandson by the top of his arm in a way described by prosecutor Caroline Rees KC “as though Ethan was just a bag of rubbish to be slung out”.

The video, taken from the back garden of the family’s four-bedroom home, showed Ethan appearing unsteady on a trampoline, or lying down, while other children bounced.

Michael Ives carrying Ethan outside the family home in Garden City, Deeside, Flintshire. Pic: North Wales Police/PA
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Michael Ives carrying Ethan outside the family home in Garden City, Deeside, Flintshire. Pic: North Wales Police/PA

Michael Ives carrying Ethan in the back garden. Pic: North Wales Police
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Michael Ives carrying Ethan in the back garden. Pic: North Wales Police

Michael Ives was seen to point a garden hose at him, placed the toddler’s hands on his head, and gestured to another child to punch him.

After watching the video in court, Michael Ives said he felt “ashamed” and admitted being cruel and neglectful but denied mistreating Ethan in other ways.

He said his daughter was “quick-tempered” and would slap Ethan a couple of times a day, but Shannon Ives claimed her parents were “horrible” and abused her as a child.

Ethan Ives-Griffiths. Pic: North Wales Police/PA
Image:
Ethan Ives-Griffiths. Pic: North Wales Police/PA

Michael and Kerry Ives, originally from Wolverhampton, were in the living room with Ethan at the time of his collapse while his mother was on the phone upstairs.

The pair told the jury “nothing” had happened to the toddler before he fainted as they watched television.

Kerry Ives said she immediately called her daughter to come downstairs, but the court heard it was 18 minutes before she called emergency services.

Ethan was taken to the Countess of Chester Hospital and later transferred to Alder Hey Children’s Hospital in Liverpool, where he died two days later.

Michael Ives being interviewed by police officers. Pic: North Wales Police/PA
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Michael Ives being interviewed by police officers. Pic: North Wales Police/PA

Kerry Ives being interviewed by police officers. Pic: North Wales Police/PA
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Kerry Ives being interviewed by police officers. Pic: North Wales Police/PA

He was found to have abdominal injuries likely to have been caused by blows in the days before his collapse, as well as bruises consistent with grip marks on his leg and face.

Experts said Ethan would have died of dehydration within days had he not suffered the head injury, and at the time of his death weighed just 10kg.

Ethan’s fatal head injury was said to have been caused by deliberate force or shaking, and occurred at the time, or in the minutes before, he collapsed.

Ethan with his father Will Griffiths. Pic: North Wales Police/PA
Image:
Ethan with his father Will Griffiths. Pic: North Wales Police/PA

Following the verdicts, Ethan’s father Will Griffiths said: “He will be remembered for the smiley, outgoing, loving child that he was. He can now rest in peace, knowing that justice has been served.”

Child protection register

The court heard the youngster had been placed on the child protection register, requiring him to be seen every 10 days.

But when Shannon Ives last saw her social worker, on 5 August 2021, she spoke to him on the doorstep and told him Ethan was having a nap.

No one answered the door when social worker Michael Cornish went to visit in the days before Ethan’s death and a scheduled appointment with a health visitor on 13 August was cancelled.

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