Image: People watch the speech of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah earlier this month. Pic: AP
Image: A man checks a damaged building at the site of an Israeli airstrike in Choueifat, south east of Beirut on Saturday. Pic: AP
Over the past 18 years Nasrallah has grown Hezbollah in his image, expanding its forces, building its infrastructure and significantly expanding its arsenal.
He wasn’t just the leader of Hezbollah, he was a global figurehead of anti-Israel resistance.
More on Hezbollah
Related Topics:
With Iran’s help, Hezbollah became one of the best armed non-state militaries in the world.
It is now decapitated and in disarray.
Advertisement
During the past decades Israel has also been at work, steadily gathering intelligence on Nasrallah and Hezbollah, building a vast database of information, an effort which arguably distracted them from better understanding the intentions of Hamas.
The intelligence successes of the past days have helped restore Israel’s reputation after the stunning failures on October 7.
Iran and Hezbollah must choose
This is a pivotal moment.
Iran and Hezbollah must now decide how to respond: fight, or backdown.
The strike also killed Ali Karaqi, commander of Hezbollah’s southern front and labelled as the second most wanted by the IDF.
It is still unclear who else died in the strike, but given the location and the presence of top officials, it seems likely that other senior figures would have been eliminated too.
Nasrallah will be replaced.
The assassination of enemy leaders can prove to be a short-term victory because they are often succeeded by someone more formidable than before, as witnessed by the killing of the former Hezbollah leader Abbas al Moussawi in 1992.
He was succeeded by Nasrallah.
The working assumption is that the group will respond with barrages of missiles into Israel, probably targeting Tel Aviv.
But Hezbollah’s command structure has been severely degraded by Israel.
Nasrallah had become isolated as the IDF had steadily killed commanders over a fortnight of scything airstrikes on their compounds in Beirut and elsewhere.
It will probably take time to co-ordinate a response and it will probably be done with Iranian guidance.
Nasrallah might be dead, but Hezbollah isn’t
Hezbollah is badly wounded, not just as a paramilitary force but in the eyes of the Lebanese people, many of whom are angry their country is now facing another period of devastating violence.
This might be a moment for more moderate voices within Lebanon, including the national armed forces, to step in.
As the war escalated over recent weeks, noticeable divisions emerged between Tehran and Nasrallah.
He remained an important ally, however, a trusted advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, and this will come as a personal blow to him.
Having resisted the opportunity to get involved so far, Iran might decide the time has come to take the gloves off and deploy what is left of the thousands of missiles they’ve provided Hezbollah with.
Alternatively, after such a difficult ten days, Tehran might conclude that this round of fighting needs to end and pull back with its main proxy still in some shape to rebuild and fight another day.
With such momentum behind Israel, Iran will also be concerned about its own fate and that of its smaller proxies in Iraq and Syria.
Ultimately, the reason for Hezbollah’s existence – to act as insurance against an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities – hasn’t changed, but if Tehran calculates its proxies can no longer act as that shield it might try to accelerate its nuclear programme.
Could a ground invasion follow?
The Israeli government has choices of its own: order a ground invasion of southern Lebanon or continue with an air campaign that has delivered such dramatic successes.
There will be strong and compelling voices in Netanyahu’s cabinet urging him to take advantage of the situation and send troops in, but Hezbollah is not defeated, thousands of its soldiers remain and they are likely hiding in the vast tunnel network under the hills across the border.
Even a limited ground invasion risks large loss of life, on both sides, and the potential Israel will be lured into something more prolonged than it intended.
Nasrallah’s death might change the dynamic in Gaza too.
Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, has clung on and rejected ceasefire attempts in the hope that Hezbollah and Iran would go to war with Israel, dragging its enemy into a multi-front and unwinnable conflict.
That might still happen, but just as Nasrallah became isolated, so too is Sinwar.
The much trumpeted “unity of arenas” has failed to join up.
The Middle East might often look chaotic to outsiders, but there are unspoken rules generally acknowledged and followed by belligerents.
For years Hezbollah and Israel acted within the unwritten but understood parameters of a shadow war.
Then, eleven months ago on 8 October, Hezbollah attacked Israel out of solidarity with Hamas.
Nasrallah tied Lebanon’s fate to Hamas, insisting that Hezbollah would only stop when the fighting ended in Gaza.
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
The rules shifted as the crossfire escalated, but it remained broadly contained within boundaries understood by both sides.
Until two weeks ago, 17 September, when thousands of pagers started exploding across Beirut and Lebanon.
It is possible Nasrallah had concluded that Israel was war-weary, and he overestimated the domestic and international pressure Netanyahu was under to end the fighting.
He might have believed that Netanyahu had neither the will nor the support to open up another front.
He, like so many of us, maybe assumed US influence on Israel would prevail.
The Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) has demanded an independent investigation into the “atrocious” deaths of 15 aid workers killed by Israeli troops in Gaza in March.
The group’s president, Dr Younis al Khatib, said he had asked the UN Security Council to form an investigation committee into the “intentional killing of the medics”.
In response to Sky’s Alistair Bunkall, spokesman David Mencer claimed the killings were the result of Hamas hiding among civilians and using them as human shields.
But speaking in Ramallah, Dr al Khatib said those responsible must be held “accountable for these crimes” via international humanitarian law and the Geneva Convention.
“It’s not enough to comfort us with condolences and nice words of investigation and accountability. There has to be action taken,” he added.
He urged an “independent and thorough investigation of this atrocious crime” and that “no one should be above the law”.
“So many questions being asked of the Israelis,” he said.
More on Gaza
Related Topics:
“Why were they killed? Why did you destroy the ambulances after killing them? Why did you try to dig deep and hide the ambulances? They have to answer for that.”
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said on Monday that a preliminary inquiry into the shooting “indicated the troops opened fire due to a perceived threat following a previous encounter in the area”.
The IDF added that “six of the individuals killed in the incident were identified as Hamas terrorists”.
It comes after footage at the weekend showed the moment the aid workers were killed, with ambulances and fire insignia clearly visible and red lights flashing.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
4:10
Phone footage contradicts Israeli claims of killing of Gaza medics
The paramedic filming, later found with a bullet in his head, is heard saying there are Israelis present and reciting a declaration of faith often used before someone dies.
He adds: “Forgive me, mother, this is the path I chose mother, to help people, forgive me, mother, I swear I chose this path only to help people.”
The Israeli military originally claimed the vehicles – which were travelling north of Rafah on 23 March – didn’t have headlights or emergency signals on and were targeted as they looked “suspicious”.
An IDF investigation is ongoing, but an Israeli government spokesman claimed on Monday that “six Hamas terrorists” were among those killed.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:52
‘Demands’ for medic death investigation
Still many unanswered questions
It’s now more than two weeks since 15 medics were shot dead by Israeli forces in southern Gaza and there are still many unanswered questions.
Israel initially said that the medics had been fired upon because they were behaving suspiciously and travelling without lights on.
When footage emerged at the weekend contradicting that, and showing that the vehicles were clearly marked as ambulances, the IDF released a new statement admitting that their soldiers made a mistake.
For the first time since that video was made public, Sky News was able to put a series of questions to Israeli government spokesman David Mencer about the incident.
We asked what evidence the IDF have that six of the medics killed were in fact Hamas operatives, whether they will put any of their evidence into the public domain, and whether any of the soldiers involved in the incident had been withdrawn from operational duties in Gaza until their investigation is complete.
Mr Mencer did not answer those important questions directly but told an online briefing that Hamas use ambulances to travel around Gaza, and insisted six of those killed were Hamas terrorists, without providing any new evidence, and accused the international media of readily accepting Hamas’ version of events.
However, this version of events in fact came from United Nations bodies and the Palestinian Red Crescent, reputed organisations with people on the ground in Gaza itself.
The fact that Israel has already had to dramatically change its story once is why questions will remain until they provide the evidence to back up their latest version of what happened near Rafah around dawn on 23 March.
Mr Mencer said: “IDF soldiers opened fire at a distance at vehicles moving suspiciously in their direction.
“Among the dead were six Hamas terrorists – what were Hamas terrorists doing in ambulances? The incident was reported in real time to UN officials.”
He claimed there were “many documented occasions” when Hamas had used ambulances as cover.
An evacuation order was also in place at the time, which meant moving vehicles were prohibited, according to Israel.
The head of the UN’s humanitarian affairs office, Jonathan Whittall, said the 15 people were found in a “mass grave” in the sand.
He said those killed comprised eight members of the PRCS, six civil defence members and one UN employee.
Dylan Winder, from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), said it was “outraged at the deaths” and that “even in the most complex conflict zones, there are rules”.
“They were humanitarians. They wore emblems that should have been protected. Their ambulances were clearly marked, and they should have returned to their families. They did not,” he said.
Until five weeks ago, Arturo Suarez was a professional singer, performing in the United States as he waited for his asylum claim to be processed.
Originally from Venezuela, he had entered the US through proper, legal channels.
But he is now imprisoned in a notorious jail in El Salvador, sent there by the Trump administration, despite seemingly never having faced trial or committed any crime. The White House claims he is a gang member but has not provided evidence to support this allegation.
His brother, Nelson Suarez, told Sky News he believes his brother’s only “crime” is being Venezuelan and having tattoos.
Image: Arturo Suarez, in a music video, is now in a notorious prison in El Salvador
“He is not a gang member,” Nelson says, adamantly, “I’ve come to the conclusion that it has to be because of the tattoos. If you don’t have a criminal record, you haven’t committed any crime in the United States, what other reason could there be? Because you’re Venezuelan?”
Arturo, 34, was recording a music video inside a house in March when he was arrested by immigration agents.
He was first taken to a deportation centre in El Paso, Texas, and then, it appears, put on to a military flight to El Salvador.
More on Donald Trump
Related Topics:
Image: Nelson Suarez insists his brother Arturo is not a gang member
His family have not heard from him since. Lawyers and immigrant rights groups have been unable to make contact with any of the more than 200 Venezuelan men sent to the CECOT prison, which holds members of the MS-13 and Tren de Aragua gangs.
Tattoo clue to Arturo Suarez’s whereabouts
Nelson learned his brother is – most likely – in CECOT only because of a photograph he spotted on a news website of a group of inmates, with their hands and feet cuffed, heads shaved and bodies shackled together.
Image: A group of inmates are processed to be imprisoned in the CECOT jail in EL Salvador. Pic: Reuters
Image: Nelson Suarez believes this is his brother Arturo Suarez due to his distinctive hummingbird tattoo. Pic: Reuters
“You can see the hummingbird tattoo on his neck,” Nelson says, pointing to the picture. He says Arturo wanted a hummingbird in memory of their late mother. Arturo has 33 tattoos in total, including a piano, poems and verses from the Bible.
It could be that one, or more, of those tattoos landed him at the centre of President Trump’s anti-immigration showpiece. Nelson shows me documents which indicate that Arturo did not have a criminal record in Venezuela, Chile, Colombia or the United States, the four countries he has lived in.
Sky News contacted the White House, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for a response to Arturo’s case but have not heard back.
In March, Donald Trump signed the Alien Enemies Act, a law from 1798 which has been invoked just three times before, in wartime.
It allows the president to detain and deport immigrants living legally in the US if they are from countries deemed “enemies” of the government. In this instance, Mr Trump claimed the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua had “infiltrated the United States” and was “conducting irregular warfare”.
Image: Alleged gang members imprisoned in the CECOT jail in El Salvador. Pic: Reuters
Gang symbol tattoos
Immigration officials have centred on certain tattoos being gang symbols. Immigration officers were provided with a document called the “Alien Enemy Validation Guide”, according to a court filing from the American Civil Liberties Union. The document provides a point-based system to determine if an immigrant in custody “may be validated” as a gang member.
Migrants who score six points and higher may be designated as members of the Tren de Aragua gang, according to the document. Tattoos which fall under a “symbolism” category score four points and social media posts “displaying” gang symbols are two points. Tattoos considered suspicious, according to the document, include crowns, stars and the Michael Jordan Jumpman logo.
Jerce Reyes Barrios’s story
Another of the men sent to CECOT prison is 36-year-old Jerce Reyes Barrios, who fled Venezuela last year after marching in anti-government protests. He is a former footballer and football coach.
His lawyer, Linette Tobin, told Sky News that Reyes Barrios entered the US legally after waiting in Mexico for four months for an immigration appointment and then presenting himself at the border.
Image: Jerce Reyes Barrios
She says he was detained in a maximum security prison in the US while awaiting his asylum appointment. But before that appointment happened, he was flown to the El Salvador prison.
Ms Tobin says the DHS deported Reyes Barrios because they designated him a Tren De Aragua gang member based on two pieces of evidence.
The first, she says, is a tattoo of the Real Madrid football team logo surrounded by rosary beads. She has since obtained a declaration from the tattoo artist stating that Reyes Barrios just wanted an image which depicted his favourite team.
Image: Jerce Reyes Barrios’s lawyer says he has a tattoo of the Real Madrid logo surrounded by rosary beads
The second piece of evidence, she says, is a photograph, which she shows me, of Reyes Barrios in a hot tub with friends when he was a college student 13 years ago.
He is making a gesture which could be interpreted as “rock and roll”, but which she says has been interpreted as a gang symbol.
Image: Lawyer Linette Tobin says this gesture has been interpreted as a gang symbol
Distraught family in despair
Reyes Barrios has no criminal record in his home country. “I’ve never known anything like this,” Ms Tobin says.
“My client was deported to a third country and we have no way of getting in touch with him. His family are distraught and in despair, they cry a lot, not knowing what is going on with him. We want him returned to the United States to have a hearing and due process.”
Ms Tobin says she and other lawyers representing men sent to the El Salvador prison are trying to establish a UN working group on enforced disappearances to do a wellness check on them because the prison is completely “incommunicado”.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:10
17 March: US migrants deported to El Salvador
Sky News contacted the DHS for comment about Reyes Barrios’s case but did not receive a response. The DHS previously issued a statement declaring that “DHS intelligence assessments go well beyond just gang-affiliated tattoos. This man’s own social media indicates he is a member of Tren de Aragua”.
Reyes Barrios has an immigration hearing scheduled for 17 April, Ms Tobin says, which the Trump administration is trying to dismiss on the grounds that he is not in the US anymore.
In the meantime, children he used to coach football for in his hometown of Machiques in Venezuela have been holding a prayer vigil for him and calling for his release.
The secretary of the DHS, Kristi Noem, visited CECOT last month and posed for photos standing in front of inmates behind bars.
Image: Department of Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem visited CECOT in March. Pic: Reuters
“Do not come to our country illegally,” she said, “you will be removed, and you will be prosecuted.” Donald Trump had promised during his election campaign to clamp down on immigration, railing against undocumented immigrants and claiming immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country”.
I ask Arturo Suarez’s brother, Nelson, how he felt watching Ms Noem posing in the prison, knowing that his brother might be close by.
“I feel bad,” he says, “I feel horrible, because in those images we only see criminals. With my brother, I feel it is more a political issue. They needed numbers, they said, these are the numbers, and now, let’s throw them to the lions.”
Image: Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Pic: AP
Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s story
The Trump administration has admitted that at least one man sent to the El Salvador jail was sent by “administrative error”. Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who was living in Maryland, was sent to CECOT despite a judge’s earlier ruling in 2019 that granted him legal protection to stay in the US.
The White House has alleged Garcia is an MS-13 gang member, but his lawyers argued there is no evidence to prove this.
A federal judge has ordered Garcia must be returned to the US by Monday 7 April. In a post on X, White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller referred to the judge as a “Marxist”, who “now thinks she’s president of El Salvador”.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “We suggest the judge contact President Bukele because we are unaware of the judge having jurisdiction or authority over the country of El Salvador.”
Israeli airstrikes have killed more than 30 people in Gaza, including over a dozen women and children, local health officials have said.
Strikes overnight into Sunday hit a tent and a house in Khan Younis, killing five men, five women and five children, according to Nasser Hospital, which received the bodies.
Later on Sunday, at least two people were killed, and six others injured when an Israeli airstrike hit a tent in Khan Younis located outside the Nasser hospital, which was being used as a base by a number of journalists.
A number of them were among the injured, according to hospital officials.
Footage showed a journalist being engulfed by flames after his tent was hit by an airstrike. He is reported to be in a critical condition.
Image: On Sunday, at least two people were killed, and six others injured when an Israeli airstrike hit a tent in Khan Younis which was being used as a base by a number of journalists. Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
Israeli shelling killed at least four people in the Jabaliya refugee camp, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run Health Ministry.
The bodies of seven people, including a child and three women, arrived at Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al Balah, according to an Associated Press journalist there.
And a strike in Gaza City hit people waiting outside a bakery, killing six, including three children, according to the civil defence, which operates under the Hamas-run government.
Last month, Israel ended its ceasefire with Hamas and restarted its air and ground offensive.
It has carried out waves of strikes and seized territory in an attempt to pressure Hamas to accept a new deal for a truce and release the remaining hostages.
It has also blocked the import of food, fuel and humanitarian aid for over a month.
“Stocks are getting low and the situation is becoming desperate,” the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees said on social media.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:02
Israel ‘seizing territory’ in Gaza
On Sunday night, Israel’s military ordered Palestinians to evacuate several neighbourhoods in Gaza’s Deir al Balah shortly after around 10 projectiles were fired from Gaza.
The military said around five were intercepted, and Hamas’s military arm claimed responsibility.
Police said a rocket fell in Ashkelon, an Israeli city just to the north of Gaza, and fragments fell in several other areas.
The Magen David Adom emergency service said one man was lightly injured, and the military later said it struck a rocket launcher in Gaza.
Image: A woman bakes bread in an oven in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters
Netanyahu visits Trump
It comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu heads to the United States to meet with Donald Trump to discuss the war.
Mr Netanyahu said the pair would also discuss the new 17% tariff imposed on Israel as part of Mr Trump’s sweeping new tariffs.
“There is a very large queue of leaders who want to do this with respect to their economies. I think it reflects the special personal connection and the special connection between the United States and Israel, which is so vital at this time,” Mr Netanyahu said during a visit to Hungary.
The war between Israel and Hamas began when Hamas-led militants invaded Israel on 7 October 2023 and killed around 1,200 people and took 251 hostage.
Some 59 hostages are still being held in Gaza, with 24 still believed to be alive.
Israel’s offensive has killed at least 50,695 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians or combatants, with another 115,338 wounded.
Israel says it has killed around 20,000 militants.