Image: People watch the speech of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah earlier this month. Pic: AP
Image: A man checks a damaged building at the site of an Israeli airstrike in Choueifat, south east of Beirut on Saturday. Pic: AP
Over the past 18 years Nasrallah has grown Hezbollah in his image, expanding its forces, building its infrastructure and significantly expanding its arsenal.
He wasn’t just the leader of Hezbollah, he was a global figurehead of anti-Israel resistance.
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With Iran’s help, Hezbollah became one of the best armed non-state militaries in the world.
It is now decapitated and in disarray.
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During the past decades Israel has also been at work, steadily gathering intelligence on Nasrallah and Hezbollah, building a vast database of information, an effort which arguably distracted them from better understanding the intentions of Hamas.
The intelligence successes of the past days have helped restore Israel’s reputation after the stunning failures on October 7.
Iran and Hezbollah must choose
This is a pivotal moment.
Iran and Hezbollah must now decide how to respond: fight, or backdown.
The strike also killed Ali Karaqi, commander of Hezbollah’s southern front and labelled as the second most wanted by the IDF.
It is still unclear who else died in the strike, but given the location and the presence of top officials, it seems likely that other senior figures would have been eliminated too.
Nasrallah will be replaced.
The assassination of enemy leaders can prove to be a short-term victory because they are often succeeded by someone more formidable than before, as witnessed by the killing of the former Hezbollah leader Abbas al Moussawi in 1992.
He was succeeded by Nasrallah.
The working assumption is that the group will respond with barrages of missiles into Israel, probably targeting Tel Aviv.
But Hezbollah’s command structure has been severely degraded by Israel.
Nasrallah had become isolated as the IDF had steadily killed commanders over a fortnight of scything airstrikes on their compounds in Beirut and elsewhere.
It will probably take time to co-ordinate a response and it will probably be done with Iranian guidance.
Nasrallah might be dead, but Hezbollah isn’t
Hezbollah is badly wounded, not just as a paramilitary force but in the eyes of the Lebanese people, many of whom are angry their country is now facing another period of devastating violence.
This might be a moment for more moderate voices within Lebanon, including the national armed forces, to step in.
As the war escalated over recent weeks, noticeable divisions emerged between Tehran and Nasrallah.
He remained an important ally, however, a trusted advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, and this will come as a personal blow to him.
Having resisted the opportunity to get involved so far, Iran might decide the time has come to take the gloves off and deploy what is left of the thousands of missiles they’ve provided Hezbollah with.
Alternatively, after such a difficult ten days, Tehran might conclude that this round of fighting needs to end and pull back with its main proxy still in some shape to rebuild and fight another day.
With such momentum behind Israel, Iran will also be concerned about its own fate and that of its smaller proxies in Iraq and Syria.
Ultimately, the reason for Hezbollah’s existence – to act as insurance against an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities – hasn’t changed, but if Tehran calculates its proxies can no longer act as that shield it might try to accelerate its nuclear programme.
Could a ground invasion follow?
The Israeli government has choices of its own: order a ground invasion of southern Lebanon or continue with an air campaign that has delivered such dramatic successes.
There will be strong and compelling voices in Netanyahu’s cabinet urging him to take advantage of the situation and send troops in, but Hezbollah is not defeated, thousands of its soldiers remain and they are likely hiding in the vast tunnel network under the hills across the border.
Even a limited ground invasion risks large loss of life, on both sides, and the potential Israel will be lured into something more prolonged than it intended.
Nasrallah’s death might change the dynamic in Gaza too.
Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, has clung on and rejected ceasefire attempts in the hope that Hezbollah and Iran would go to war with Israel, dragging its enemy into a multi-front and unwinnable conflict.
That might still happen, but just as Nasrallah became isolated, so too is Sinwar.
The much trumpeted “unity of arenas” has failed to join up.
The Middle East might often look chaotic to outsiders, but there are unspoken rules generally acknowledged and followed by belligerents.
For years Hezbollah and Israel acted within the unwritten but understood parameters of a shadow war.
Then, eleven months ago on 8 October, Hezbollah attacked Israel out of solidarity with Hamas.
Nasrallah tied Lebanon’s fate to Hamas, insisting that Hezbollah would only stop when the fighting ended in Gaza.
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The rules shifted as the crossfire escalated, but it remained broadly contained within boundaries understood by both sides.
Until two weeks ago, 17 September, when thousands of pagers started exploding across Beirut and Lebanon.
It is possible Nasrallah had concluded that Israel was war-weary, and he overestimated the domestic and international pressure Netanyahu was under to end the fighting.
He might have believed that Netanyahu had neither the will nor the support to open up another front.
He, like so many of us, maybe assumed US influence on Israel would prevail.
A manhunt for those responsible is currently ongoing, with police facing a “race against time” to retrieve the jewels before they are dismantled.
Here’s all you need to know.
How the heist unfolded
The heist took place at roughly 9.30am (8.30am UK time), half an hour after the Louvre had opened its doors to the public.
The thieves used a crane that was mounted on the back of a small truck to smash an upstairs window and enter the Galerie d’Apollon.
Image: Police officers work by a crane believed to have been used by thieves. Pic: AP
This is an enormous room on the upper floor of the Petite Galerie, which houses the French Crown Jewels as well as the royal collection of hardstone vessels, paintings, tapestries and medallions, the museum’s website says.
The thieves smashed two display cases and fled on motorbikes. No-one was hurt in the incident.
Guards were alerted to the scene by alarms that went off when the cases were smashed, but the thieves had already left.
It is not clear if the gang brought any or all of the equipment they used with them, as construction work is taking place along the River Seine side of the building where the break-in occurred.
The entire theft took between six and seven minutes.
What was stolen?
A total of nine objects were targeted in the heist, and eight were actually stolen. The thieves dropped the ninth one, the crown of Napoleon III’s wife, Empress Eugenie, during their escape.
Officials have described the stolen items as having “inestimable” historical value.
The following pieces remain missing:
What will happen to the jewellery?
Art detective Arthur Brand described the heist as “the theft of the decade” – adding that in order to recover the “priceless” items, police will need to find the culprits within the week.
“These crown jewels are so famous, you just cannot sell them,” Mr Brand told Sky News. “The only thing they can do is melt the silver and gold down, dismantle the diamonds, try to cut them. That’s the way they will probably disappear forever.”
He continued: “They [the police] have a week. If they catch the thieves, the stuff might still be there. If it takes longer, the loot is probably gone and dismantled. It’s a race against time.”
Image: The tiara (top), necklace (middle) and one earring were taken from the Queen Marie Amelie sapphire set. Pic: Louvre
Tobias Kormind, managing director of Mayfair-based 77 Diamonds, agreed, saying it is “unlikely” the jewels will ever be seen again.
“Professional crews often break down and re-cut large, recognizable stones to evade detection, effectively erasing their provenance,” he said.
Image: Emerald necklace and earrings from the parure of Empress Marie-Louise. Pic: The Louvre
Authorities have said forensic teams are currently reviewing CCTV from the Denon wing and the riverfront of the museum, inspecting the crane used to reach the gallery and interviewing staff who were on site when the museum opened.
Who was behind the heist?
According to French media, there were four perpetrators: two dressed as construction workers in yellow safety vests on the lift, and two others who had a scooter each.
French authorities have not confirmed these details; however, one yellow vest has been recovered from the scene.
Culture Minister Rachida Dati told French news outlet TF1 that footage of the theft showed the masked robbers entering “calmly” and smashing display cases containing the jewels. No one was injured in the incident.
Image: A window believed to have been used in the robbery. Pic: Reuters
She described the thieves as seemingly being “experienced” with a well-prepared plan.
Paris Prosecutor Laure Beccuau told BFM TV that the robbers were unarmed but threatened guards with angle grinders.
The group also tried and failed to set fire to the crane they used to enter the Louvre.
A key question that remains is whether the robbers had inside assistance, authorities said.
French interior minister Laurent Nunez said the specialised police unit, which has a high success rate in cracking high-profile robberies, is leading the investigation.
Ms Beccuau added that investigators were keeping all leads open, but authorities were “looking at the hypothesis of organised crime”.
She said the thieves could have been working for a buyer, or seeking to get access to jewels that can be useful to launder criminal proceeds.
Questions over security
Big questions are now being asked about the security in place at the Louvre, and how effective it is.
Earlier this year, officials at the Louvre requested urgent help from the French government to restore and renovate the museum’s ageing exhibition halls and better protect its countless works of art.
Image: Police officers near the pyramid of the Louvre museum. Pic: Reuters
French justice minister Gerard Darmanin said on Monday that the heist gave a very negative image of France as it implied a failure of security services.
“There are many museums in Paris, many museums in France, with priceless values in these museums,” Mr Darmanin said in an interview with French radio station France Inter.
“What is certain is that we failed,” he said, adding the police will eventually arrest the authors.”
French President Emmanuel Macron said in a post on X that everything was being done to recover the stolen jewellery and bring the perpetrators to justice.
While culture minister Rachida Dati said the issue of museum security was not new.
“For 40 years, there was little focus on securing these major museums, and two years ago, the president of the Louvre requested a security audit from the police prefect. Why? Because museums must adapt to new forms of crime,” she said.
A football derby in Tel Aviv between Hapoel and Maccabi has been cancelled after “violent riots”, according to Israeli police.
Nine people were arrested on Sunday night at Bloomfield Stadium, a venue shared by both clubs. Hapoel were the home team for the game.
A statement from Israeli police said the game was called off “following disturbances and violent riots” in which 13 civilians and three officers were injured by pyrotechnic devices.
“These are very serious incidents that posed a real danger to the lives of police officers and civilians,” the statement added.
But Hapoel Tel Aviv Football Club released a statement with a very different perspective on policing at the match.
“From the preliminary discussions prior to the match, it appears that the police were preparing for war rather than a sporting event,” a spokesperson said.
Image: Outside the stadium, mounted police attempt to control crowds. Pic: Israeli police
Image: Footage released by Israeli police shows a flare or firework landing near officers. Pic: Israeli police
They added: “Most of the injuries from the event were caused by brutal police violence at the end of the game, as a direct result of the scandalous decision to cancel the event.
“Everyone saw the disturbing videos of children being trampled by horses and police officers indiscriminately beating fans.”
Israeli police have not yet responded to the allegations from Hapoel.
A Maccabi statement read: “Following the police’s decision, it was determined that the Tel Aviv derby will not take place tonight.”
Footage shared by the police shows projectiles and flares being thrown on to the pitch, as well as unrest outside the stadium and arrests being made.
Image: What looked like smoke canisters were seized by officers. Pic: Israeli police
Maccabi ban criticised
On Thursday, Maccabi supporters were told they are not allowed to attend November’s Europa League game against Aston Villa in Birmingham next month after a decision by Birmingham’s Safety Advisory Group (SAG).
The group – made up of local stakeholders, including representatives from the council, police and event organisers – said the decision was due to a high risk of violence based on “current intelligence and previous incidents”.
He insisted Aston in Birmingham cannot become a “no-go area” for Jews.
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Aston ‘can’t be no-go area for Jews’
The energy secretary also said that he “profoundly” disagrees with the “approach” taken by a local MP who started a petition calling for fans of Maccabi Tel Aviv to be banned from the Aston Villa game.
The petition states: “Their arrival in Aston – a diverse and predominantly Muslim community – poses a real risk of tensions within the community and disorder.”
Mr Miliband pushed back on that point. He said the “vast majority of Muslim people in this country would disassociate themselves” from suggestions that Maccabi Tel Aviv fans could not come to Aston Villa because it was a predominantly Muslim area.
His Tory counterpart, Claire Coutinho, was also highly critical of the petition, telling Phillips: “I think politicians need to have the courage to name some of the problems that this country is facing. And one of those problems is political Islam.”
The independent MP for Birmingham Perry Barr, Ayoub Khan, criticised those comments.
“I utterly reject the false and inflammatory characterisations… regarding my recent petition,” he said in a statement.
“The petition I launched reflected genuine and widespread concern from my constituents about public safety and community cohesion. It did not call for anyone to be ‘banned because they are Jewish’ nor did it single out any faith or ethnicity.
“To distort this into an issue of religion or antisemitism is deeply irresponsible and frankly dangerous. I have consistently condemned all forms of hatred – including antisemitism and Islamophobia – and I will continue to do so.”
The government is expecting West Midlands Police to set out early next week what they would need to police the game safely with both sets of fans present.
A cargo plane has skidded off the runway into the sea while landing at Hong Kong International Airport, killing two people on the ground.
Images taken after the crash which happened around 3.50am (8.50pm UK time) showed a Boeing 747 cargo aircraft partially submerged in water near the airport’s sea wall.
The AirACT plane, travelling from Dubai, could be seen with escape slides deployed and the nose and tail sections separated. Four crew on board survived.
Image: The nose and tail sections separated after the crash. Pic: Reuters
Image: Escape slides were deployed and all four crew survived. Pic: Reuters
Image: Rescue teams circle the partially submerged green tail of the aircraft. Pic: AP
Two security staff were killed when the aircraft struck their vehicle, shunting it into the sea, said Steven Yiu, executive director of airport operations at Airport Authority Hong Kong.
At a news conference, he told reporters about the rescue operation.
“Four aircraft crew on board were quickly rescued by Fire Service Department [which] also rescued two security staff from the sea.
“One was certified dead at the hospital and the other certified dead at the scene.
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“We are deeply saddened and extend our deepest condolence. We will provide the family with all necessary support and assistance.”
Image: Steven Yiu from Airport Authority Hong Kong told reporters two security staff have been killed. Pic: AP
Image: Mr Yiu showed a map of the northern runway and the crash site. Pic: AP
He explained that the security vehicle was patrolling the north runway along a road that was outside the runway fence when it was struck.
The northern runway at the world’s busiest cargo airport is closed while the south and central runways are continuing to operate.
“According to information we have at that moment, weather and the runway condition were safe and met all conditions for runway operation. An investigation is continuing.” Mr Yiu added.
Emirates said in a statement that flight EK9788 sustained damage on landing in Hong Kong on Monday and was a Boeing 747 cargo aircraft wet-leased from and operated by ACT Airlines.
“Crew are confirmed to be safe and there was no cargo onboard,” the airline said.
Man Ka-chai, chief accident and safety investigator for Hong Kong’s Air Accident Investigation Authority, confirmed air traffic control had directed the flight to land at the north runway, but added: “We didn’t receive any message requesting help from the pilot.”
ACT Airlines is a Turkish carrier that provides extra cargo capacity to major airlines. It did not respond immediately to a request for comment outside normal business hours.
Flight tracking service FlightRadar24 said the aircraft involved in the accident was 32 years old and had served as a passenger plane before being converted into a freighter.
Hong Kong’s Civil Aviation Department said in a statement that the aircraft had “deviated from the north runway after landing and ditched into the sea”.
Airport Authority Hong Kong said the northern runway would reopen after safety inspections were complete.