Image: People watch the speech of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah earlier this month. Pic: AP
Image: A man checks a damaged building at the site of an Israeli airstrike in Choueifat, south east of Beirut on Saturday. Pic: AP
Over the past 18 years Nasrallah has grown Hezbollah in his image, expanding its forces, building its infrastructure and significantly expanding its arsenal.
He wasn’t just the leader of Hezbollah, he was a global figurehead of anti-Israel resistance.
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With Iran’s help, Hezbollah became one of the best armed non-state militaries in the world.
It is now decapitated and in disarray.
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During the past decades Israel has also been at work, steadily gathering intelligence on Nasrallah and Hezbollah, building a vast database of information, an effort which arguably distracted them from better understanding the intentions of Hamas.
The intelligence successes of the past days have helped restore Israel’s reputation after the stunning failures on October 7.
Iran and Hezbollah must choose
This is a pivotal moment.
Iran and Hezbollah must now decide how to respond: fight, or backdown.
The strike also killed Ali Karaqi, commander of Hezbollah’s southern front and labelled as the second most wanted by the IDF.
It is still unclear who else died in the strike, but given the location and the presence of top officials, it seems likely that other senior figures would have been eliminated too.
Nasrallah will be replaced.
The assassination of enemy leaders can prove to be a short-term victory because they are often succeeded by someone more formidable than before, as witnessed by the killing of the former Hezbollah leader Abbas al Moussawi in 1992.
He was succeeded by Nasrallah.
The working assumption is that the group will respond with barrages of missiles into Israel, probably targeting Tel Aviv.
But Hezbollah’s command structure has been severely degraded by Israel.
Nasrallah had become isolated as the IDF had steadily killed commanders over a fortnight of scything airstrikes on their compounds in Beirut and elsewhere.
It will probably take time to co-ordinate a response and it will probably be done with Iranian guidance.
Nasrallah might be dead, but Hezbollah isn’t
Hezbollah is badly wounded, not just as a paramilitary force but in the eyes of the Lebanese people, many of whom are angry their country is now facing another period of devastating violence.
This might be a moment for more moderate voices within Lebanon, including the national armed forces, to step in.
As the war escalated over recent weeks, noticeable divisions emerged between Tehran and Nasrallah.
He remained an important ally, however, a trusted advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, and this will come as a personal blow to him.
Having resisted the opportunity to get involved so far, Iran might decide the time has come to take the gloves off and deploy what is left of the thousands of missiles they’ve provided Hezbollah with.
Alternatively, after such a difficult ten days, Tehran might conclude that this round of fighting needs to end and pull back with its main proxy still in some shape to rebuild and fight another day.
With such momentum behind Israel, Iran will also be concerned about its own fate and that of its smaller proxies in Iraq and Syria.
Ultimately, the reason for Hezbollah’s existence – to act as insurance against an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities – hasn’t changed, but if Tehran calculates its proxies can no longer act as that shield it might try to accelerate its nuclear programme.
Could a ground invasion follow?
The Israeli government has choices of its own: order a ground invasion of southern Lebanon or continue with an air campaign that has delivered such dramatic successes.
There will be strong and compelling voices in Netanyahu’s cabinet urging him to take advantage of the situation and send troops in, but Hezbollah is not defeated, thousands of its soldiers remain and they are likely hiding in the vast tunnel network under the hills across the border.
Even a limited ground invasion risks large loss of life, on both sides, and the potential Israel will be lured into something more prolonged than it intended.
Nasrallah’s death might change the dynamic in Gaza too.
Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, has clung on and rejected ceasefire attempts in the hope that Hezbollah and Iran would go to war with Israel, dragging its enemy into a multi-front and unwinnable conflict.
That might still happen, but just as Nasrallah became isolated, so too is Sinwar.
The much trumpeted “unity of arenas” has failed to join up.
The Middle East might often look chaotic to outsiders, but there are unspoken rules generally acknowledged and followed by belligerents.
For years Hezbollah and Israel acted within the unwritten but understood parameters of a shadow war.
Then, eleven months ago on 8 October, Hezbollah attacked Israel out of solidarity with Hamas.
Nasrallah tied Lebanon’s fate to Hamas, insisting that Hezbollah would only stop when the fighting ended in Gaza.
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The rules shifted as the crossfire escalated, but it remained broadly contained within boundaries understood by both sides.
Until two weeks ago, 17 September, when thousands of pagers started exploding across Beirut and Lebanon.
It is possible Nasrallah had concluded that Israel was war-weary, and he overestimated the domestic and international pressure Netanyahu was under to end the fighting.
He might have believed that Netanyahu had neither the will nor the support to open up another front.
He, like so many of us, maybe assumed US influence on Israel would prevail.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused US envoy Steve Witkoff of “spreading Russian narratives” about the Ukraine war – as he said a much-anticipated minerals deal was moving closer.
His comments came as Mr Witkoff was in Paris for talks with Ukrainian and European officials.
“This peace deal is about these so-called five territories, but there’s so much more to it,” he said.
He appeared to be referencing occupied Crimea and the four regions annexed in sham referendums in 2022: Kherson, Luhansk, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.
The votes were widely condemned and dismissed by the West – and Russia still does not fully control these regions – but Mr Witkoff has been accused of parroting Moscow’s line.
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Image: Mr Witkoff met the Russian president in St Petersburg on Friday. Pic: Sputnik/AP
Mr Zelenskyy, speaking at a news conference, also said a “memorandum of intent” on a minerals deal with the US could be signed online on Thursday.
However, speaking at the White House later – where he was hosting the Italian prime minister, US President Donald Trump said it was likely to be next week.
The deal was expected to be done weeks ago but was derailed by the Ukrainian leader’s falling out at the White House.
President Trump wants to share in profits from Ukraine’s natural resources in what he says is repayment for military aid. It’s hoped America having a stake in the country could also help maintain any truce.
In his media conference, Mr Zelenskyy also claimed he had evidence of China helping Russia with artillery.
“We believe that Chinese representatives are engaged in the production of some weapons on the territory of Russia,” the Ukrainian leader said.
He did not specify whether he meant artillery systems or shells.
It comes after Ukraine said recently that it had captured two Chinese citizens fighting in the east of the country.
US efforts to broker a ceasefire have so far failed to provide a breakthrough, with critics accusing Russia of stalling and not really wanting peace.
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1:30
‘I don’t hold Zelenskyy responsible’
President Trump was asked on Thursday how long Mr Putin had to respond to his ceasefire proposal before facing either tariffs or more sanctions.
“We’re going to be hearing from them this week, very shortly, actually,” he told reporters.
He also said that while he does not hold President Zelenskyy responsible for the war, he is “not a big fan”.
“I’m not happy with him, and I’m not happy with anybody involved,” he said.
“I’m not blaming him, but what I am saying is that I wouldn’t say he’s done the greatest job. Okay? I’m not a big fan.”
Three killed in drone attack
US envoy Mr Witkoff was joined in Paris earlier by US secretary of state Marco Rubio.
The men held talks with French, British and German representatives – the so-called “coalition of the willing” who could provide security guarantees in the event of a ceasefire.
Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff, foreign minister and defence minister were also there and a follow-up is scheduled for next week in London.
Image: Talks took place at the Elysee Palace in Paris. Pic: Reuters
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3:21
Will talks bring Ukraine ceasefire?
While a total ceasefire has proved elusive, a 30-day moratorium on striking energy infrastructure targets was previously agreed.
However, both sides have accused each other of breaking the agreement.
Russian government spokeswoman Maria Zakharova claimed on Thursday that Ukraine had breached it 80 times.
Image: Three were killed and dozens hurt in drone strikes on Dnipro. Pic: Reuters
Image: Pic: Reuters
President Zelenskyy, meanwhile, said Russian energy attacks had decreased but that it was attacking civilian infrastructures instead.
Three people, including a child, were killed overnight in a drone attack on Ukraine’s southeastern city of Dnipro, according to officials, with 30 wounded.
Local authorities said widespread damage was caused to civilian infrastructure, including an educational institution, residential buildings, a gym and a dormitory.
The White House has hit out at an “appalling” attempt by a Democratic senator to return a father wrongly deported to El Salvador.
Chris Van Hollen arrived in El Salvador on Wednesday to speak to the country’s leaders about Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who was removed from the US by the Trump administration in March despite an immigration court order preventing his deportation.
Washington acknowledged Mr Garcia was deported due to an “administrative error”.
The US Supreme Court has called on the administration to facilitate his return, upholding a court order by Judge Paula Xinis, but Trump officials have claimed Mr Garcia has ties to the MS-13 gang.
Mr Garcia’s lawyers have argued there is no evidence of this.
Speaking about Mr Van Hollen’s trip to El Salvador, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said the Democrats “still refuse to accept the will of the American people”.
She alleged Mr Garcia was an “illegal alien MS-13 terrorist” and claimed his wife petitioned for court protection against him after alleged incidents of domestic violence.
Image: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.
Pic: AP/Jose Luis Magana
After outlining the allegations against Mr Garcia, she went on: “All of that is not enough to stop the Democrat Party from their lies.
“The number one issue they are focused on right now is bringing back this illegal alien terrorist to America.
“It’s appalling and sad that Senator Van Hollen and the Democrats are plotting his trip to El Salvador today, are incapable of having any shred of common sense or empathy for their own constituents and our citizens.”
After making a statement, Ms Leavitt introduced Patty Morin, who described graphic details of her daughter’s murder by an immigrant from El Salvador.
Rachel Morin was raped and murdered by Victor Martinez-Hernandez along a popular hiking trail northeast of Baltimore.
Afterwards, Ms Leavitt left without taking any questions from reporters.
Image: Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Pic: CASA/AP
Senator travels to El Salvador
Mr Van Hollen met with the El Salvador vice president during his trip to the Central American country.
But he did not meet with President Nayib Bukele, who publicly met with Donald Trump in the Oval Office this week, nor did he meet Mr Garcia himself.
Image: US senator Chris Van Hollen has been in El Salvador.
Pic: Reuters/Jose Cabezas
In a post on X, he said he would continue to fight for Mr Garcia’s return.
During Mr Bukele’s trip to the White House earlier this week, he said he would not return Mr Garcia, likening it to smuggling “a terrorist into the United States”.
Along with Mr Garcia, the Trump administration has deported hundreds of people, mostly Venezuelans, who it claims are gang members without presenting evidence and without a trial.
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2:53
‘I’m talking about violent people’
Judge’s contempt warning
It comes hours after a US federal judge warned that he could hold the Trump administration in criminal contempt for violating his orders to turn around planes carrying deportees to El Salvador.
The comments are an escalation in a row which began last month when US district judge James E Boasberg issued an order temporarily blocking the deportations.
However, lawyers told him there were already two planes with immigrants in the air – one headed for El Salvador, the other for Honduras.
Mr Boasberg verbally ordered the planes to be turned around, but the directive was not included in his written order. The Trump administration then denied refusing to comply.
Charges could be brought forward by the Justice Department, NBC News, Sky’s US partner network, reported.
However, that could create an uncomfortable situation for the department, which is headed by the attorney general – a position appointed by the president.
If the executive-led Justice Department refused to prosecute the matter, Judge Boasberg said he would appoint another attorney to prosecute the contempt.
The judge wrote: “The Constitution does not tolerate wilful disobedience of judicial orders – especially by officials of a coordinate branch who have sworn an oath to uphold it.”
He gave the government a 23 April deadline.
White House director of communications Steven Cheung said the administration would seek “immediate appellate relief” – a review of a decision within a lower court before the case has been resolved.
Israel’s troops will remain in “security zones” in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria indefinitely, according to the country’s defence minister.
Israeli forces have taken over more than half of the Gaza Strip in recent weeks in a renewed campaign to pressure the territory’s rulers Hamas to free hostages after a ceasefire ended last month.
Israel has also refused to withdraw from some areas in Lebanon following a truce with Hezbollah last year, and it seized a buffer zone in southern Syria after President Assad’s regime was overthrown last December.
Israeli defence minister Israel Katz said his forces “will remain in the security zones as a buffer between the enemy and [Israeli] communities in any temporary or permanent situation in Gaza – as in Lebanon and Syria”.
He said that “unlike in the past” the military was “not evacuating areas that have been cleared and seized”.
His comments could further complicate talks with Hamas over a ceasefire and the release of hostages.
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3:36
Gazans struggle to find bodies under rubble
On Wednesday, health officials said Israeli strikes in Gaza killed 22 people, including a girl who was less than a year old.
Fifty-nine hostages are still inside Gaza, 24 of whom are believed to be alive, after dozens of others were previously released in ceasefire agreements or other deals.
Image: Israeli defence minister Israel Katz. Pic: AP
Meanwhile, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said Israel’s continued presence in some areas in Lebanon was “hindering” the Lebanese army’s full deployment as required by the ceasefire negotiated with Israel.
The war left over 4,000 people dead, many of them civilians.
Two Israeli drone strikes in southern Lebanon on Wednesday killed two people, the health ministry said. The United Nations said Israeli strikes in Lebanon have killed more than 70 civilians since the ceasefire took effect in November.
Israel has said it must keep control of some areas to prevent a repeat of the Hamas attack that triggered the latest conflict in Gaza.
The war began when militants attacked southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping about 250.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed more than 51,000 people, according to Gaza’s health ministry.
The figure includes more than 1,600 people killed since a ceasefire ended and Israel resumed its offensive last month to pressure Hamas to accept changes to the agreement.
The health ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its total count but said that more than half of the fatalities are women and children.