Is wider war in the Middle East now inevitable?
The pictures from Beirut are unnerving to say the least, the predictions for the immediate future even more so.
With the dust still settling from this game-changing assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, there are pressing questions crying out for answers.
Most of all, is the Middle East about to erupt into a regional conflict that threatens us all? That’s been the warning for almost a year, so is it about to happen?
Not if America and its allies can help it.
Follow latest: Iran warns Israel will ‘regret their actions’
Hezbollah is a designated terrorist organisation for the US, UK and other Western nations. It has killed hundreds of their citizens over the years.
There is no doubt President Joe Biden has felt what he called a “measure of justice” that Nasrallah has been killed.
But there is also a fear of what comes next. From the president down we are hearing urgent calls for de-escalation and a diplomatic solution. And the US has rushed military assets to ward off Hezbollah’s patrons in Iran doing their worst. But will that be enough?
Lebanese Red Cross workers inspect a destroyed building. Pic: AP
US-led diplomacy to contain the Middle East crisis has failed.
A senior Middle Eastern diplomat told Sky News the assassination is a kick in the teeth for the US president.
“For all the bombs and billions he has given the Israelis,” he said, “the least they could have done for him in the last weeks of his presidency was a ceasefire in the region”.
With diplomacy stalled, what happens next depends on both Iran and Israel.
For its part, Iran may feel it has no alternative but to weigh in. It may fear the massive missile arsenal it supplied is so jeopardised it must intervene and save Hezbollah.
Smoke rises as a building collapses in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Pic: AP
Iranians have long regarded Hezbollah as an insurance policy for the day Israel might attack Iran itself. If it sees its ally close to total collapse, might it then weigh in?
If it does, Israel’s allies led by America might feel compelled to come to its defence. The full scale war feared for almost a year could engulf the region.
But there are good reasons for Iran not to rush to action.
The Middle East seems a dangerous and unpredictable place but certain rules and assumptions apply, even in all its chaos.
For all their fanaticism, the ayatollahs of Tehran are pragmatic and seek the preservation of their grip on power above all. That has been a rule of the Middle Eastern jungle since they seized power 45 years ago.
Is it pragmatic or wise to up the ante and more directly support Hezbollah, when it is at its weakest? The Iranian regime is not that strong either, crippled economically by sanctions and mismanagement, and socially and politically by months of civil unrest, albeit now quashed.
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There are limits too to what Iran could achieve with direct military intervention anyway in a war that is 2,000km from its borders. The Iranians may conclude this round in the war against Israel is over. They think in long time spans, after all. Time to regroup and move on to fight another day?
There will no doubt be days more of sound and fury, like we have seldom seen before. The mourning and funerals of Nasrallah and his lieutenants are likely to be the focus of intense anger and will raise tensions. But what happens afterwards?
That also comes down to Israel.
People stand next to IDF tanks in northern Israel. Pic: Reuters
It may now feel it has the wind in its sails and seize the moment to invade Lebanon on the ground to push Hezbollah back from the border. That would be an extremely dangerous moment too, potentially drawing in supportive militia and Iranian forces based in Syria.
The hills of southern Lebanon are a treacherous country for a military like Israel’s that relies on infantry and tanks. They could be drawn into a lengthy and punishing campaign that could then destabilise the region.
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What does Nasrallah’s death mean for Hezbollah?
Read more:
Analysis: Hezbollah and Iran must decide to fight or back down
Who was Hassan Nasrallah?
Then there is Lebanon itself. An uneasy compromise between the warring factions of its civil war in the 1970s and 80s has held for decades but its always fragile status quo is now threatened. The chessboard of its multi-denominational politics has potentially been upended by the removal of its most powerful player.
If Lebanon descends back into factional fighting, regional stability will be undermined too.
The Middle East is in grave danger of further escalation. Western and regional diplomats are working round the clock to pull it back from the brink but recent efforts have all ended in failure and neither Israel nor Hezbollah seem to be listening.
Donald Trump has threatened Russia with more sanctions after a series of deadly strikes across Ukraine, as he said of Vladimir Putin: “What the hell happened to him?”
The US president appeared aghast at the conduct of his counterpart in the Kremlin after drone and missile attacks in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities left 12 people dead and dozens more injured.
Trump criticises Putin – latest updates
Speaking to reporters at an airport in New Jersey ahead of a flight back to Washington, Mr Trump said: “I’m not happy with Putin. I don’t know what’s wrong with him.”
“He’s killing a lot of people,” he added. “I’m not happy about that.”
Mr Trump – who said he’s “always gotten along with” Mr Putin – told reporters he would consider more sanctions against Moscow.
“He’s sending rockets into cities and killing people, and I don’t like it at all,” he said.
Ukraine said the barrage of strikes overnight into Sunday was the biggest aerial attack of the war so far, with 367 drones and missiles fired by Russian forces.
It came despite Mr Trump repeatedly talking up the chances of a peace agreement. He even spoke to Mr Putin on the phone for two hours last week.
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Hundreds of drones fired at Ukraine
‘Shameful’ attacks
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine is ready to sign a ceasefire deal, and suggested Russia isn’t serious about signing one.
In a statement after the latest attacks on his country, he urged the US and other national leaders to increase the pressure on Mr Putin, saying silence “only encourages” him.
Mr Trump’s envoy for the country, Keith Kellogg, later demanded a ceasefire, describing the Russian attacks as “shameful”.
Three children were among those killed in the attacks, explosions shaking the cities of Kyiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv.
Ukrainian siblings Tamara, 12, Stanislav, eight, and Roman, 17, were killed in Russian airstrikes. Pic: X/@Mariana_Betsa
Before the onslaught, Russia said it had faced a Ukrainian drone attack on Sunday. It said around 100 were intercepted and destroyed near Moscow and in central and southern regions.
The violence has escalated despite Russia and Ukraine completing the exchange of 1,000 prisoners each over the past three days.
Donald Trump says he will delay the imposition of 50% tariffs on goods entering the United States from the European Union until July, as the two sides attempt to negotiate a trade deal.
It comes after the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said in a post on social media site X that she had spoken to Mr Trump and expressed that they needed until 9 July to “reach a good deal”.
The US president had last Friday threatened to bring in the 50% tariffs from 1 June, as European leaders said they were ready to respond with their own measures.
But Mr Trump has now said that date has been put back to 9 July to allow more time for negotiations with the 27-member bloc, with the phone call appearing to smooth over tensions for now at least.
Speaking on Sunday before boarding Air Force One for Washington DC, Mr Trump told reporters that he had spoken to Ms Von der Leyen and she “wants to get down to serious negotiations” and she vowed to “rapidly get together and see if we can work something out”.
The US president, in comments on his Truth Social platform, had reignited fears last Friday of a trade war between the two powers when he said talks were “going nowhere” and the bloc was “very difficult to deal with”.
Mr Trump told the media in Morristown, New Jersey, on Sunday that Ms Von der Leyen “just called me… and she asked for an extension in the June 1st date. And she said she wants to get down to serious negotiation”.
“We had a very nice call and I agreed to move it. I believe July 9th would be the date. That was the date she requested. She said we will rapidly get together and see if we can work something out,” the US president added.
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Shortly after, he wrote on Truth Social: “I agreed to the extension – July 9, 2025 – It was my privilege to do so.”
On his so-called “liberation day” last month, Mr Trump unleashed tariffs on many of America’s trade partners. But since then he’s backed down in a spiralling tit-for-tat tariff face-off with China, and struck a deal with the UK.
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Much of his most incendiary rhetoric on trade has been directed at Brussels, though, even going as far as to claim the EU was created to rip the US off.
Responding to his 50% tariff threat, EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said: “EU-US trade is unmatched and must be guided by mutual respect, not threats.
“We stand ready to defend our interests.”
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