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The pictures from Beirut are unnerving to say the least, the predictions for the immediate future even more so.

With the dust still settling from this game-changing assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, there are pressing questions crying out for answers.

Most of all, is the Middle East about to erupt into a regional conflict that threatens us all? That’s been the warning for almost a year, so is it about to happen?

Not if America and its allies can help it.

Follow latest: Iran warns Israel will ‘regret their actions’

Hezbollah is a designated terrorist organisation for the US, UK and other Western nations. It has killed hundreds of their citizens over the years.

There is no doubt President Joe Biden has felt what he called a “measure of justice” that Nasrallah has been killed.

More on Hezbollah

But there is also a fear of what comes next. From the president down we are hearing urgent calls for de-escalation and a diplomatic solution. And the US has rushed military assets to ward off Hezbollah’s patrons in Iran doing their worst. But will that be enough?

Pic: Stringer/picture-alliance/dpa/AP
27 September 2024, Lebanon, Shebaa: Lebanese Red cross workers inspect a destroyed three storey building, after it collapsed following an Israeli air raid in the southern Lebanese border village of Shebaa. Photo by: Stringer/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images
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Lebanese Red Cross workers inspect a destroyed building. Pic: AP

US-led diplomacy to contain the Middle East crisis has failed.

A senior Middle Eastern diplomat told Sky News the assassination is a kick in the teeth for the US president.

“For all the bombs and billions he has given the Israelis,” he said, “the least they could have done for him in the last weeks of his presidency was a ceasefire in the region”.

With diplomacy stalled, what happens next depends on both Iran and Israel.

For its part, Iran may feel it has no alternative but to weigh in. It may fear the massive missile arsenal it supplied is so jeopardised it must intervene and save Hezbollah.

Pic: AP
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Smoke rises as a building collapses in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Pic: AP

Iranians have long regarded Hezbollah as an insurance policy for the day Israel might attack Iran itself. If it sees its ally close to total collapse, might it then weigh in?

If it does, Israel’s allies led by America might feel compelled to come to its defence. The full scale war feared for almost a year could engulf the region.

But there are good reasons for Iran not to rush to action.

The Middle East seems a dangerous and unpredictable place but certain rules and assumptions apply, even in all its chaos.

For all their fanaticism, the ayatollahs of Tehran are pragmatic and seek the preservation of their grip on power above all. That has been a rule of the Middle Eastern jungle since they seized power 45 years ago.

Is it pragmatic or wise to up the ante and more directly support Hezbollah, when it is at its weakest? The Iranian regime is not that strong either, crippled economically by sanctions and mismanagement, and socially and politically by months of civil unrest, albeit now quashed.

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There are limits too to what Iran could achieve with direct military intervention anyway in a war that is 2,000km from its borders. The Iranians may conclude this round in the war against Israel is over. They think in long time spans, after all. Time to regroup and move on to fight another day?

There will no doubt be days more of sound and fury, like we have seldom seen before. The mourning and funerals of Nasrallah and his lieutenants are likely to be the focus of intense anger and will raise tensions. But what happens afterwards?

That also comes down to Israel.

People stand next to Israeli Army tanks, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, in northern Israel, September 27, 2024. REUTERS/Jim Urquhart
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People stand next to IDF tanks in northern Israel. Pic: Reuters

It may now feel it has the wind in its sails and seize the moment to invade Lebanon on the ground to push Hezbollah back from the border. That would be an extremely dangerous moment too, potentially drawing in supportive militia and Iranian forces based in Syria.

The hills of southern Lebanon are a treacherous country for a military like Israel’s that relies on infantry and tanks. They could be drawn into a lengthy and punishing campaign that could then destabilise the region.

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What does Nasrallah’s death mean for Hezbollah?

Read more:
Analysis: Hezbollah and Iran must decide to fight or back down
Who was Hassan Nasrallah?

Then there is Lebanon itself. An uneasy compromise between the warring factions of its civil war in the 1970s and 80s has held for decades but its always fragile status quo is now threatened. The chessboard of its multi-denominational politics has potentially been upended by the removal of its most powerful player.

If Lebanon descends back into factional fighting, regional stability will be undermined too.

The Middle East is in grave danger of further escalation. Western and regional diplomats are working round the clock to pull it back from the brink but recent efforts have all ended in failure and neither Israel nor Hezbollah seem to be listening.

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Russia wants ‘quick peace’ in Ukraine and London is ‘head of those resisting it’, ambassador to UK tells Sky News

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Russia wants 'quick peace' in Ukraine and London is 'head of those resisting it', ambassador to UK tells Sky News

Russia wants “quick peace” in Ukraine and London is at the “head of those resisting” it, the Russian ambassador to the UK has told Sky News.

In an interview on The World With Yalda Hakim, Andrei Kelin accused the UK, France and other European nations of not wanting to end the war in Ukraine.

“We are prepared to negotiate and to talk,” he said. “We have our position. If we can strike a negotiated settlement… we need a very serious approach to that and a very serious agreement about all of that – and about security in Europe.”

Russian ambassador to the UK Andrei Kelin speaks to  Yalda Hakin
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Russian ambassador Andrei Kelin speaks to Yalda Hakim

US President Donald Trump held a surprise phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin last month, shocking America’s European allies. He went on to call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator” and relations between the pair were left in tatters after a meeting in the Oval Office descended into a shouting match.

Days later, the US leader suspended military aid to Ukraine, though there were signs the relationship between the two leaders appeared to be on the mend following the contentious White House meeting last week, with Mr Trump saying he “appreciated” a letter from Mr Zelenskyy saying Kyiv was ready to sign a minerals agreement with Washington “at any time”.

In his interview with Sky News’ Yalda Hakim, Mr Kelin said he was “not surprised” the US has changed its position on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in 2022, claiming Mr Trump “knows the history of the conflict”.

“He knows history and is very different from European leaders,” he added.

No doubt Russia is welcoming shift in world order


 Yalda Hakim joined Sky News at the end of last year

Yalda Hakim

Lead world news presenter

@SkyYaldaHakim

I’ve interviewed the Russian ambassador to the UK, Andrei Kelin, on a number of occasions, at times the conversation has been tense and heated.

But today, I found a diplomat full of confidence and cautiously optimistic.

The optics of course have suddenly changed in Russia’s favour since Donald Trump was elected.

I asked him if Russia couldn’t believe its luck. “I would not exaggerate this too much,” he quipped.

Mr Kelin also “categorically” ruled out European troops on the ground and said the flurry of diplomatic activity and summits over the course of the past few weeks is not because Europeans want to talk to Moscow but because they want to present something to Mr Trump.

He appeared to relish the split the world is witnessing in transatlantic relations.

Of course the ambassador remained cagey about the conversations that have taken place between President Trump and Vladimir Putin.

There is no doubt however that Russia is welcoming what Mr Kelin says is a shift in the world order.

Peace deal ‘should recognise Russian advances’

The Russian ambassador said Moscow had told Washington it believed its territorial advances in Ukraine “should be recognised” as part of any peace deal.

“What we will need is a new Ukraine as a neutral, non-nuclear state,” he said. “The territorial situation should be recognised. These territories have been included in our constitution and we will continue to push that all forces of the Ukrainian government will leave these territories.”

Asked if he thought the Americans would agree to give occupied Ukrainian land to Russia, he said: “I don’t think we have discussed it seriously. [From] what I have read, the Americans actually understand the reality.”

Read more:
What you need to know from a monumental week in Ukraine
US ‘destroying’ world order by trying to meet Russia ‘halfway’

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In full: Russian ambassador’s interview with Sky’s Yalda Hakim

Moscow rules out NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine

He said Russia “categorically ruled out” the prospect of NATO peacekeepers on the ground in Ukraine – a proposal made by UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron – saying “they have no rules of engagement” and so would just be “sitting in cities”.

“It’s senseless” and “not for reality,” Mr Kelin added.

He branded the temporary ceasefire raised by Mr Zelenskyy “a crazy idea”, and said: “We will never accept it and they perfectly are aware of that.

“We will only accept the final version, when we are going to sign it. Until then things are very shaky.”

He added: “We’re trying to find a resolution on the battlefield, until the US administration suggest something constructive.”

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US ‘destroying’ international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia ‘halfway’, Ukraine’s UK ambassador warns

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US 'destroying' international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia 'halfway', Ukraine's UK ambassador warns

The United States is “finally destroying” the international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia “halfway”, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK has warned.

Valerii Zaluzhnyi said Washington’s recent actions in relation to Moscow could lead to the collapse of NATO – with Europe becoming Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s next target.

“The failure to qualify actions of Russia as an aggression is a huge challenge for the entire world and Europe, in particular,” he told a conference at the Chatham House think tank.

Ukraine latest: ‘Watershed moment’ as Kremlin blasts Macron

“We see that it is not just the axis of evil and Russia trying to revise the world order, but the US is finally destroying this order.”

Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Pic: Reuters


Mr Zaluzhnyi, who took over as Kyiv’s ambassador to London in 2024 following three years as commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, also warned that the White House had “questioned the unity of the whole Western world” – suggesting NATO could cease to exist as a result.

It comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy scrambles to repair relations with US President Donald Trump following a dramatic row between the two men in the Oval Office last week.

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Mr Trump signalled on Tuesday that tensions could be easing, telling Congress he had received a letter from Mr Zelenskyy saying he was ready to sign a peace deal “at any time”.

Zelenskyy and Trump speaking in the Oval Office. Pic: Reuters
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Zelenskyy and Trump during their extraordinary Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters

Read more:
New Zealand fires UK envoy for Trump comments
US stops sharing all intelligence with Ukraine

But on the same day, the US president ordered a sudden freeze on shipments of US military aid to Ukraine, and Washington has since paused intelligence sharing with Kyiv and halted cyber operations against Russia.

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Mr Zaluzhnyi said the pause in cyber operations and an earlier decision by the US to oppose a UN resolution condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine were “a huge challenge for the entire world”.

He added that talks between the US and Russia – “headed by a war criminal” – showed the White House “makes steps towards the Kremlin, trying to meet them halfway”, warning Moscow’s next target “could be Europe”.

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Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh being forced to fight for same military accused of genocide against their people

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Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh being forced to fight for same military accused of genocide against their people

Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh is a sprawling mass of humanity. 

It’s a sea of makeshift bamboo shelters, home to more than one million Rohingya refugees – a mainly Muslim minority from Rakhine state in Myanmar.

Some 700,000 fled their homeland back in 2017 – after the Myanmar military massacred thousands.

The army was accused of genocide by the United Nations.

The Rohingya refugees didn’t escape danger though.

Right now, violence is at its worst levels in the camps since 2017 and Rohingya people face a particularly cruel new threat – they’re being forced back to fight for the same Myanmar military accused of trying to wipe out their people.

A child at the refugee camp in Cox's Bazar
Image:
A child at the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar

Militant groups are recruiting Rohingya men in the camps, some at gunpoint, and taking them back to Myanmar to fight for a force that’s losing ground.

More on Rohingyas

Jaker is just 19.

We’ve changed his name to protect his identity.

He says he was abducted at gunpoint last year by a group of nine men in Cox’s.

They tied his hands with rope he says and took him to the border where he was taken by boat with three other men to fight for the Myanmar military.

“It was heartbreaking,” he told me. “They targeted poor children. The children of wealthy families only avoided it by paying money.”

And he says the impact has been deadly.

“Many of our Rohingya boys, who were taken by force from the camps, were killed in battle.”

Jaker speaks to Sky's Cordelia Lynch
Image:
Jaker speaks to Sky’s Cordelia Lynch

An aerial view of the refugee camp in Cox's Bazar
Image:
An aerial view of the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar

The situation in Cox’s is desperate.

People are disillusioned by poverty, violence and the plight of their own people and the civil war they ran from is getting worse.

In Rakhine, just across the border, there’s been a big shift in dynamics.

The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group has all but taken control of the state from the ruling military junta.

Both the military and the AA are accused of committing atrocities against Rohingya Muslims.

And whilst some Rohingya claim they’re being forced into the fray – dragged back to Myanmar from Bangladesh, others are willing to go.

Read more from Sky News:
Bangladesh leader reacts to ‘House of Mirrors’ prison
Inside Bangladesh’s ‘death squad’ jails

Sri Lanka rescues more than 100 people believed to be Rohingya refugees

Teknaf in Cox's Bazar - where refugees arrive from Myanmar after crossing the Naf River
Image:
Teknaf in Cox’s Bazar – where refugees arrive from Myanmar after crossing the Naf River

Some are so aggrieved with the AA, they’re willing to support their former persecutors.

Abu Zar is one of those willing to take up arms.

But not for the military or AA, he says.

Everyone praying in the mosque with him is prepared to go back to protect their own cause he says – not anyone else’s.

“We want to fight for our rights because we have been demanding justice for a long time. But the situation has become unbearable,” he tells me.

Abu Zar has said he is willing to take up arms for his own cause
Image:
Abu Zar has said he is willing to take up arms for his own cause

It’s estimated between 3,000 and 5,000 Rohingya have joined armed groups from this camp.

But the fight they are joining has become increasingly bloody.

In a cramped shelter, we meet Safura.

Safura came under fire as she fled Myanmar
Image:
Safura came under fire as she fled Myanmar

Safura's son Aman had his foot blown off
Image:
Safura’s son Aman had his foot blown off

Five days ago she managed to get out of Myanmar but she had to be carried part of the way.

Her legs are riddled with bullet wounds and the pain is severe.

Her son, Aman, who lies on the floor next to her, has had his foot blown off.

They were injured she said, during an attack on her family home in the middle of the night.

“They entered our house and shot all my family members. My husband and mother-in-law were killed on the spot.”

The military denies forcing Rohingya to the battlefield. But the camps tell a different story- one of surging violence and vulnerability.

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