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The pictures from Beirut are unnerving to say the least, the predictions for the immediate future even more so.

With the dust still settling from this game-changing assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, there are pressing questions crying out for answers.

Most of all, is the Middle East about to erupt into a regional conflict that threatens us all? That’s been the warning for almost a year, so is it about to happen?

Not if America and its allies can help it.

Follow latest: Iran warns Israel will ‘regret their actions’

Hezbollah is a designated terrorist organisation for the US, UK and other Western nations. It has killed hundreds of their citizens over the years.

There is no doubt President Joe Biden has felt what he called a “measure of justice” that Nasrallah has been killed.

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But there is also a fear of what comes next. From the president down we are hearing urgent calls for de-escalation and a diplomatic solution. And the US has rushed military assets to ward off Hezbollah’s patrons in Iran doing their worst. But will that be enough?

Pic: Stringer/picture-alliance/dpa/AP
27 September 2024, Lebanon, Shebaa: Lebanese Red cross workers inspect a destroyed three storey building, after it collapsed following an Israeli air raid in the southern Lebanese border village of Shebaa. Photo by: Stringer/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images
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Lebanese Red Cross workers inspect a destroyed building. Pic: AP

US-led diplomacy to contain the Middle East crisis has failed.

A senior Middle Eastern diplomat told Sky News the assassination is a kick in the teeth for the US president.

“For all the bombs and billions he has given the Israelis,” he said, “the least they could have done for him in the last weeks of his presidency was a ceasefire in the region”.

With diplomacy stalled, what happens next depends on both Iran and Israel.

For its part, Iran may feel it has no alternative but to weigh in. It may fear the massive missile arsenal it supplied is so jeopardised it must intervene and save Hezbollah.

Pic: AP
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Smoke rises as a building collapses in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Pic: AP

Iranians have long regarded Hezbollah as an insurance policy for the day Israel might attack Iran itself. If it sees its ally close to total collapse, might it then weigh in?

If it does, Israel’s allies led by America might feel compelled to come to its defence. The full scale war feared for almost a year could engulf the region.

But there are good reasons for Iran not to rush to action.

The Middle East seems a dangerous and unpredictable place but certain rules and assumptions apply, even in all its chaos.

For all their fanaticism, the ayatollahs of Tehran are pragmatic and seek the preservation of their grip on power above all. That has been a rule of the Middle Eastern jungle since they seized power 45 years ago.

Is it pragmatic or wise to up the ante and more directly support Hezbollah, when it is at its weakest? The Iranian regime is not that strong either, crippled economically by sanctions and mismanagement, and socially and politically by months of civil unrest, albeit now quashed.

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There are limits too to what Iran could achieve with direct military intervention anyway in a war that is 2,000km from its borders. The Iranians may conclude this round in the war against Israel is over. They think in long time spans, after all. Time to regroup and move on to fight another day?

There will no doubt be days more of sound and fury, like we have seldom seen before. The mourning and funerals of Nasrallah and his lieutenants are likely to be the focus of intense anger and will raise tensions. But what happens afterwards?

That also comes down to Israel.

People stand next to Israeli Army tanks, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, in northern Israel, September 27, 2024. REUTERS/Jim Urquhart
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People stand next to IDF tanks in northern Israel. Pic: Reuters

It may now feel it has the wind in its sails and seize the moment to invade Lebanon on the ground to push Hezbollah back from the border. That would be an extremely dangerous moment too, potentially drawing in supportive militia and Iranian forces based in Syria.

The hills of southern Lebanon are a treacherous country for a military like Israel’s that relies on infantry and tanks. They could be drawn into a lengthy and punishing campaign that could then destabilise the region.

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What does Nasrallah’s death mean for Hezbollah?

Read more:
Analysis: Hezbollah and Iran must decide to fight or back down
Who was Hassan Nasrallah?

Then there is Lebanon itself. An uneasy compromise between the warring factions of its civil war in the 1970s and 80s has held for decades but its always fragile status quo is now threatened. The chessboard of its multi-denominational politics has potentially been upended by the removal of its most powerful player.

If Lebanon descends back into factional fighting, regional stability will be undermined too.

The Middle East is in grave danger of further escalation. Western and regional diplomats are working round the clock to pull it back from the brink but recent efforts have all ended in failure and neither Israel nor Hezbollah seem to be listening.

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Netanyahu vows to retaliate against Houthis and Iran after missile attack

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Netanyahu vows to retaliate against Houthis and Iran after missile attack

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate against the Houthis and their Iranian “masters” after the group launched a missile attack on the country’s main international airport.

A missile fired by the group from Yemen landed near Ben Gurion Airport, causing panic among passengers in the terminal building.

“Attacks by the Houthis emanate from Iran,” Mr Netanyahu wrote on X. “Israel will respond to the Houthi attack against our main airport AND, at a time and place of our choosing, to their Iranian terror masters.”

Pic: Reuters
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Israeli police officers investigate the missile crater. Pic: Reuters

The missile impact left a plume of smoke and briefly halted flights and commuter traffic at the airport. Some international carriers have cancelled flights to and from Tel Aviv for several days.

Four people were lightly wounded, paramedic service Magen David Adom said.

Air raid sirens went off across Israel and footage showed passengers yelling and rushing for cover.

The attack came hours before senior Israeli cabinet ministers were set to vote on whether to intensify the country’s military operations in the Gaza Strip, and as the army began calling up thousands of reserves in anticipation of a wider operation in the enclave.

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Houthi military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Saree said the group fired a hypersonic ballistic missile at the airport.

Iran’s defence minister later told a state TV broadcaster that if the country was attacked by the US or Israel, it would target their bases, interests and forces where necessary.

Israel’s military said several attempts to intercept the missile were unsuccessful.

Air, road and rail traffic were halted after the attack, police said, though it resumed around an hour later.

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Yemen’s Houthis have been firing missiles at Israel since its war with Hamas in Gaza began on 7 October 2023, and while most have been intercepted, some have penetrated the country’s missile defence systems and caused damage.

Israel has previously struck the group in Yemen in retaliation and the US and UK have also launched strikes after the Houthis began attacking international shipping, saying it was in solidarity with Palestinians over Israel’s war with Hamas.

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Israeli pilots’ protest letter reveals deepening rift over ongoing war in Gaza

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Israeli pilots' protest letter reveals deepening rift over ongoing war in Gaza

The Israeli Air Force is regarded as one of the country’s most elite units.

So, when hundreds of current and former pilots call for an end to the war in Gaza to get the hostages out, Israelis take notice.

This month, 1,200 pilots caused a storm by signing an open letter arguing the war served mainly “political and personal interests and not security ones”.

The pilots' protest letter
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The pilots’ protest letter

Part of the letter translated
Image:
Part of the letter translated

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the original letter was written by “bad apples”.

But Guy Paron, a former pilot and one of those behind the letter, said the Israeli government had failed to move to phase two of the ceasefire deal with Hamas, brokered under US President Donald Trump.

That deal called for a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the release of all the remaining hostages. Mr Netanyahu continues to argue that the war must continue to put pressure on Hamas.

Mr Paron said the (Israeli) government “gave up or violated a signed agreement with Hamas” and “threw it to the trash”.

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“You have to finish the deal, release the hostages, even if it means stopping that war,” he argued.

It’s not the first time Israeli pilots have taken up a cause. Many of them also campaigned against Mr Netanyahu’s 2023 judicial reforms.

“In this country, 1,000 Israeli Air Force pilots carry a lot of weight,” Mr Paron added.

“The Air Force historically has been the major force and game-changer in all of Israel’s wars, including this current one. The strength of the Air Force is the public’s guarantee of security.”

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UN runs out of food aid in Gaza

Anti-government campaign spreads

Now, the open letter campaign has spread to other parts of the military.

More than 15,000 people have signed, including paratroopers, armoured corps, navy, special units, cyber and medics. The list goes on.

Dr Ofer Havakuk has served 200 days during this war as a combat doctor, mostly in Gaza, and believes the government is continuing the war to stay in power.

He has also signed an open letter supporting the pilots and accused the prime minister of putting politics first.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during the annual ceremony at the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers (Yom HaZikaron) at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem on Tuesday, April 29, 2025.  (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP)
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the authors of the original letter as ‘bad apples’. Pic: AP

He said Mr Netanyahu “wants to keep his coalition working and to keep the coalition together. For him, this is the main purpose of the war”.

A ceasefire could lead to the collapse of the prime minister’s fragile far-right coalition, which is opposed to ending the war.

Threat of dismissal

The Israeli military has threatened to dismiss those who have signed protest letters.

We met a former pilot who is still an active reservist. He didn’t want to be identified and is worried he could lose his job.

“This is a price that I’m willing to pay, although it is very big for me because I’m volunteering and, as a volunteer, I want to stay on duty for as long as I can,” he told us.

The controversy over the war and the hostages is gaining momentum inside Israel’s military.

Read more:
Israel ‘starving, killing’ civilians
Seriously ill Gaza kids arrive in UK
Israeli minister called a ‘war criminal’

It is also exposing deep divisions in society at a time when there is no clear sign about how the government plans to end the war in Gaza, or when.

The renewed war in Gaza over the last year and a half followed deadly Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023, which killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and saw around 250 taken hostage.

More than 51,000 people have been killed in Gaza during the Israeli military’s response, many of them civilians, according to the enclave’s Hamas-run Ministry of Health.

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Drone attacks are intensifying in Sudan – hitting schools and camps homing the displaced

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Drone attacks are intensifying in Sudan - hitting schools and camps homing the displaced

The smell of explosives is still in the air when we arrive.

Hours before, a displacement camp in Atbara housing families who fled the war in Sudan’s capital Khartoum was hit by two drone strikes in a four-pronged attack.

The first bomb on 25 April burned donated tents and killed the children in them.

The second hit a school serving as a shelter for the spillover of homeless families.

Sudan

Chunks of cement and plaster had been blasted off the walls of the classrooms where they slept when the second explosive was dropped.

Blood marked the entrance of the temporary home closest to the crater.

Inside, shattered glass and broken window frames speak to the force of the explosion. We were told by their neighbours that four people in the family were instantly killed.

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“People were torn apart. This is inhumane,” says their neighbour Mahialdeen, whose brother and sister were injured. “We are praying that God lifts this catastrophe. We left Khartoum because of the fighting and found it here.”

Wiping a tear, he says: “It is chasing us.”

Sudan

The sanctuary city held by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) about 200 miles northeast of Khartoum has been hit by six drone attacks by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since the start of the year.

These latest strikes are the most deadly.

The drones – known for targeting civilian infrastructure – hit the displacement camp twice, the nearby power station supplying the city with electricity and an empty field with four bombs in the dark, early hours of the morning. First responders have told Sky News that 12 people were killed, including at least two children.

Sudan

RSF increasingly using drones to carry out attacks

Data from the conflict-monitoring organisation ACLED shows the RSF has carried out increasing numbers of drone attacks across the country.

The most targeted states have been Khartoum and North Darfur, where fighting on the ground has been fierce, as well as Atbara’s River Nile State.

The data suggests that the increase in strikes has been driven by a change in tactics following the SAF’s recapture of Khartoum in late March, with the number of strikes carried out by the RSF spiking shortly after their withdrawal from the capital.

Satellite imagery shows the RSF’s airpower has allowed it to continue to attack targets in and around Khartoum.

Nearby Wadi Seidna Airbase was targeted after the attack on Atbara, with damage visible across a large area south of its airfield.

We were given access to the remains of latest suicide drones launched at Khartoum and could not find discernible signs of commercial origin.

Drone experts told Sky News that they are self-built devices made from generic parts with no identifiable manufacturers for the components.

Read more:
Sky reporter returns to family home left in ruins
UK announces £120m aid package for Sudan

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Two years of war in Sudan

Drones sighted in South Darfur are consistent with Chinese models

High-resolution satellite images confirm the presence of drones at the RSF-held Nyala Airport.

While the total number of drones kept at this location is unknown, imagery from Planet Labs shows six on 24 April.

This is the highest number of drones observed at the airport, suggesting an increase in the RSF’s available airpower.

The location and number of drones visible in satellite imagery at Nyala Airport has varied over time, suggesting they are in active use.

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Yousra Elbagir visits wartorn home in Sudan

While it is not possible to determine the exact model of drones sighted at Nyala Airport, a report published by researchers at the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Lab has previously found them to be consistent with the Chinese-produced FH-95.

Analysis carried out by Sky News confirms these findings, with the measurements and visible features matching those of the CH-95 and FH-95. Both designs are produced in China.

The United Arab Emirates is widely accused of supplying Chinese drones to the RSF through South Sudan and Uganda, as well as weapons through Chad. The UAE vehemently denies these claims.

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Sudanese military in presidential palace

Evidence of new airfields

Satellite imagery viewed by Sky News suggests the RSF has worked to increase its air capabilities outside of South Darfur.

In late 2024, five new airstrips appeared in West Kordofan between the contested cities of North Darfur capital Al Fashir and Khartoum.

While the purpose of these airstrips is unknown, it is clear they carry some level of military significance, having been targeted by air in April.

In high-resolution images, no aircraft can be seen. Damage is visible next to a structure that appears to be an aircraft hangar.

The rapid escalation in drone strikes is being brutally suffered on the ground.

In Atbara’s Police Hospital, we find a ward full of the injured survivors.

One of them, a three-year-old girl called Manasiq, is staring up at the ceiling in wide-eyed shock with her head wrapped in a bandage and her feet covered in dried blood.

Her aunt tells us the explosion flung her small body across the classroom shelter but she miraculously survived.

She has shrapnel in her head and clings onto her aunt as her mother is treated for her own injuries in a ward on the first floor.

Sudan

In a dark room deeper in the ward, a mother sits on the edge of a hospital bed holding her young injured daughter. Her son, only slightly older, is on a smaller adjustable bed further away.

Fadwa looks forlorn and helpless. Her children were spending the night with relatives in the temporary tents when the first strike hit and killed her eight-year-old son.

His surviving sister and brother have been asking after him, but Fadwa can’t bring herself to break the news.

“What can I say? This is our fate. We fled the war in Khartoum but can’t escape the violence,” Fadwa says, staring off in the distance.

“We are condemned to this fate.”

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