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The pictures from Beirut are unnerving to say the least, the predictions for the immediate future even more so.

With the dust still settling from this game-changing assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, there are pressing questions crying out for answers.

Most of all, is the Middle East about to erupt into a regional conflict that threatens us all? That’s been the warning for almost a year, so is it about to happen?

Not if America and its allies can help it.

Follow latest: Iran warns Israel will ‘regret their actions’

Hezbollah is a designated terrorist organisation for the US, UK and other Western nations. It has killed hundreds of their citizens over the years.

There is no doubt President Joe Biden has felt what he called a “measure of justice” that Nasrallah has been killed.

More on Hezbollah

But there is also a fear of what comes next. From the president down we are hearing urgent calls for de-escalation and a diplomatic solution. And the US has rushed military assets to ward off Hezbollah’s patrons in Iran doing their worst. But will that be enough?

Pic: Stringer/picture-alliance/dpa/AP
27 September 2024, Lebanon, Shebaa: Lebanese Red cross workers inspect a destroyed three storey building, after it collapsed following an Israeli air raid in the southern Lebanese border village of Shebaa. Photo by: Stringer/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images
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Lebanese Red Cross workers inspect a destroyed building. Pic: AP

US-led diplomacy to contain the Middle East crisis has failed.

A senior Middle Eastern diplomat told Sky News the assassination is a kick in the teeth for the US president.

“For all the bombs and billions he has given the Israelis,” he said, “the least they could have done for him in the last weeks of his presidency was a ceasefire in the region”.

With diplomacy stalled, what happens next depends on both Iran and Israel.

For its part, Iran may feel it has no alternative but to weigh in. It may fear the massive missile arsenal it supplied is so jeopardised it must intervene and save Hezbollah.

Pic: AP
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Smoke rises as a building collapses in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Pic: AP

Iranians have long regarded Hezbollah as an insurance policy for the day Israel might attack Iran itself. If it sees its ally close to total collapse, might it then weigh in?

If it does, Israel’s allies led by America might feel compelled to come to its defence. The full scale war feared for almost a year could engulf the region.

But there are good reasons for Iran not to rush to action.

The Middle East seems a dangerous and unpredictable place but certain rules and assumptions apply, even in all its chaos.

For all their fanaticism, the ayatollahs of Tehran are pragmatic and seek the preservation of their grip on power above all. That has been a rule of the Middle Eastern jungle since they seized power 45 years ago.

Is it pragmatic or wise to up the ante and more directly support Hezbollah, when it is at its weakest? The Iranian regime is not that strong either, crippled economically by sanctions and mismanagement, and socially and politically by months of civil unrest, albeit now quashed.

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There are limits too to what Iran could achieve with direct military intervention anyway in a war that is 2,000km from its borders. The Iranians may conclude this round in the war against Israel is over. They think in long time spans, after all. Time to regroup and move on to fight another day?

There will no doubt be days more of sound and fury, like we have seldom seen before. The mourning and funerals of Nasrallah and his lieutenants are likely to be the focus of intense anger and will raise tensions. But what happens afterwards?

That also comes down to Israel.

People stand next to Israeli Army tanks, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, in northern Israel, September 27, 2024. REUTERS/Jim Urquhart
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People stand next to IDF tanks in northern Israel. Pic: Reuters

It may now feel it has the wind in its sails and seize the moment to invade Lebanon on the ground to push Hezbollah back from the border. That would be an extremely dangerous moment too, potentially drawing in supportive militia and Iranian forces based in Syria.

The hills of southern Lebanon are a treacherous country for a military like Israel’s that relies on infantry and tanks. They could be drawn into a lengthy and punishing campaign that could then destabilise the region.

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What does Nasrallah’s death mean for Hezbollah?

Read more:
Analysis: Hezbollah and Iran must decide to fight or back down
Who was Hassan Nasrallah?

Then there is Lebanon itself. An uneasy compromise between the warring factions of its civil war in the 1970s and 80s has held for decades but its always fragile status quo is now threatened. The chessboard of its multi-denominational politics has potentially been upended by the removal of its most powerful player.

If Lebanon descends back into factional fighting, regional stability will be undermined too.

The Middle East is in grave danger of further escalation. Western and regional diplomats are working round the clock to pull it back from the brink but recent efforts have all ended in failure and neither Israel nor Hezbollah seem to be listening.

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Children among 25 people killed by Israeli strikes in Gaza – as 41 killed in attack on northern Lebanon

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Children among 25 people killed by Israeli strikes in Gaza - as 41 killed in attack on northern Lebanon

An 18-month-old boy and his 10-year-old sister are among 25 people who were killed in a series of Israeli strikes on central parts of Gaza, hospital officials have said.

Sixteen people were initially reported to have been killed in two strikes on the central Nuseirat refugee camp on Thursday, but officials from the Al Aqsa hospital said bodies continued to be brought in.

The hospital said they had received 21 bodies from the strikes, including some transferred from the Awda hospital, where they had been taken the day before.

Strikes on a motorcycle in Zuwaida and on a house in Deir al Balah on Friday killed four more, hospital officials said, bringing the overall toll to 25.

Five children and seven women are among those who have been confirmed dead.

The mother of the 18-month-old boy is missing and his father was killed in an Israeli strike four months ago, the family has said.

The Palestinian news agency WAFA earlier reported that 57 people had died in the Israeli strikes.

The Israeli military did not comment on the specific strikes but said its troops had identified and eliminated “several armed terrorists” in central Gaza.

Palestinians watch as smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip. Pic: Reuters
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Palestinians watch as smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip. Pic: Reuters

It also said its forces had eliminated “dozens of terrorists” in raids in northern Gaza’s Jabalia area – home to one of the territory’s refugee camps.

It comes as the Israeli military said on Friday it killed senior Hamas official Izz al Din Kassab, describing him as one of the last high-ranking members, in an airstrike in Khan Younis.

A displaced Palestinian boy in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters
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A displaced Palestinian boy in Gaza City on 28 October. Pic: Reuters


The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have over the past few weeks resumed intense operations in the north of Gaza, claiming they are seeking to stop Hamas, the militant group ruling Gaza, from regrouping.

Meanwhile, top UN officials said in a statement on Friday that the situation in northern Gaza is “apocalyptic” and the entire Palestinian population in the area is at “imminent risk of dying from disease, famine and violence”.

The overall number of people killed in Gaza in the 13-month war is more than 43,000, officials from the Hamas-run health ministry in the territory, who do not distinguish between civilians and combatants, reported this week.

Read more:
‘This is our land, we deserve it’

Charity demands UK evacuate critically ill children from Gaza

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Civil defence members work at a site damaged in the aftermath of Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, Lebanon, November 1, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Yassin
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Civil defence members work at a site damaged in the aftermath of Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs. Pic: Reuters

It comes as at least 41 people were killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon’s Baalbek region on Friday, the regional governor said.

The deaths were confirmed hours after Lebanon’s health ministry said 30 people had been killed in Israeli strikes on the country in the past 24 hours.

It is not clear if any of those killed in the Baalbek region were included in that figure.

In recent days, Israel has intensified its airstrikes on the northeast city of Baalbek and nearby villages, as well as different parts of southern Lebanon, prompting roughly 60,000 people to flee their homes, according to Hussein Haj Hassan, a Lebanese official representing the region.

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Israel has issued evacuation orders for people living in parts of Lebanon

Israel’s military said in a statement that attacks “in the area of Beirut” had targeted Hezbollah weapons manufacturing sites, command centres and other infrastructure.

Israeli planes also pounded Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh overnight, destroying dozens of buildings in several neighbourhoods, according to the Lebanese state news agency.

More than 2,800 people have been killed and 13,000 wounded since fighting between Israel and Hezbollah escalated after Hamas’s 7 October attack last year, Lebanon’s Health Ministry said.

Meanwhile, in northern Israel, seven people, including three Israelis and four Thai nationals, were killed by projectiles fired from Lebanon on Thursday, Israeli medics said.

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North Korea vows to back Russia until ‘victory’ over Ukraine – as thousands of its troops ‘set to enter combat’

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North Korea vows to back Russia until 'victory' over Ukraine - as thousands of its troops 'set to enter combat'

North Korea says it will support Russia in its war with Ukraine “until the day of victory” – after the US warned thousands of Pyongyang’s troops are set to enter combat in the coming days.

North Korea’s foreign minister Choe Son Hui hailed Vladimir Putin’s “wise leadership” ahead of talks in Moscow on Friday, and insisted that Russia will “achieve a great victory”.

“We also assure that until the day of victory we will firmly stand alongside our Russian comrades,” she added.

US secretary of state Antony Blinken has said thousands of North Korean troops are stationed near Ukraine’s border and are set to enter combat in the coming days.

Mr Blinken said 10,000 soldiers have been deployed to Russia, with up to 8,000 in the Kursk border region, and indicated they would be used on the frontline.

He added that the troops have been trained by Russian forces in artillery, drones and “basic infantry operations, including trench clearing”.

In an interview with South Korean TV channel KBS, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the West’s response to the deployment as “nothing, it’s zero”.

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North Korean troops near Ukraine border, US says

Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters on Friday that he had “nothing to add to what has already been said” on the US claims, and thanked Ms Choe for North Korea’s support.

The deployment of troops to Russia comes after Mr Putin met Kim Jong Un in June, when the Russian president travelled to North Korea for the first time in 24 years.

Vladimir Putin met Kim Jong Un in North Korea in June. Pic: Reuters
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Vladimir Putin met Kim Jong Un in North Korea in June. Pic: Reuters

A mutual defence pact was agreed during their summit, meaning the countries will help each other if they are attacked.

Speaking in Moscow, Ms Choe accused the US and South Korea of plotting a nuclear strike against her country.

She provided no evidence to back her claim, but spoke of regular consultations between Washington and Seoul, at which she alleged such plotting took place.

Read more:
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Ms Choe also told Mr Lavrov that tensions on the Korean Peninsula could turn “explosive” at any moment.

On Thursday, North Korea tested a new intercontinental ballistic missile, which it claimed was “the world’s most powerful strategic deterrent”.

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North Korea tests giant missile

On Friday, Ukraine’s air force said it shot down 31 Russian drones and one missile during an overnight strike across the country.

It said 48 drones were launched by Moscow, along with three cruise missiles. Out of the drones launched, another 14 were “locationally lost”.

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Why flooding in Spain has been so deadly – and why it could happen again

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Why flooding in Spain has been so deadly – and why it could happen again

More than 200 people have died in Spain after nearly a year’s worth of rain fell in a matter of hours.

On Friday, there were at least 205 confirmed deaths in Valencia, two in Castilla La Mancha, and one in Andalusia.

Local authorities issued warnings late on Tuesday, but many say this gave them next-to-no time to prepare for the conditions that had killed dozens by Wednesday.

Follow Spain flooding latest

Here we look at what caused the flooding – and why they could happen again.

How quickly did the floods hit?

Heavy rain had already begun in parts of southern Spain on Monday.

In contrast to areas like Malaga, where residents told Sky News it had been “chucking it down for two days”, the rain did not start in the worst-hit region of Valencia until around 7pm on Tuesday.

At 8pm, people in Valencia received smartphone alerts warning them not to leave their homes.

But by then, many were already trapped in dangerous conditions, particularly in the south of the city where a major road had flooded, leaving drivers stuck in their cars.

Read more
‘No one came to rescue us’
Deadly flood damage is ‘utterly random’
Deadliest weather events were fuelled by climate change

By Wednesday morning, more than 50 people had been found dead.

The Chiva area of Valencia had been hit by 491 litres per square metre of rain in eight hours. Only around 65 l/m2 usually falls in the whole of October.

Storms spread west on Wednesday night and into Thursday, bringing deadly conditions to Andalusia and Castilla La Mancha as well.

What caused them?

Heavy rain is not uncommon across eastern Spain at this time of year.

It’s caused by a weather phenomenon called DANA – ‘depresion aislada en niveles altos’ in Spanish – which translates as ‘isolated low-pressure system at high levels’.

DANA occurs when:

1) Cold air from the north moves south;

2) Warm air then blows over the Mediterranean, rising quickly and forming heavy clouds;

3) The low pressure from the north gets blocked by the high pressure above the water, causing it to slow down or stop completely.

A graphic shows how the DANA phenomenon happens
Image:
A graphic shows how the DANA phenomenon happens

This creates storm-like conditions that cannot move anywhere else – so the rain falls over the same area for a sustained period of time.

What role did climate change play?

General flash floods and those caused by DANA specifically have struck Spain long before humans started warming the climate.

But climate change is making heavy rain worse, and therefore more dangerous.

That’s because hotter air is able to hold more moisture. So when it rains, it unleashes more water.

The current 1.3C increase in global temperatures since pre-industrial times means the air can carry about 9% more moisture.

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What caused the floods in Spain?

And higher sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean are a “key driver” of strong storms, said Dr Marilena Oltmanns, research scientist at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton.

The world is on track for 3.1C warming by the end of this century, which is expected to make rain heavier still, increasing the chances of flash flooding and giving areas little time to respond.

Imperial College London’s lead for its World Weather Attribution (WWA) group Dr Friederike Otto says there is “no doubt about it”.

“These explosive downpours were intensified by climate change,” she says.

Professor Mark Smith, an expert in water science and health at the University of Leeds, adds that hotter summers also dry out the soil in the ground, which means it absorbs less rain – and more of it flows into rivers and lakes – which flood quicker.

People work to clear a mud-covered street with piled up cars in the aftermath of torrential rains that caused flooding, in Paiporta, Spain, October 31, 2024. REUTERS/Eva Manez
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Scale of devastation in Paiporta, Valencia on Thursday. Pic: Reuters

Vehicles are seen piled up after being swept away by floods in Valencia, Spain, Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024. (AP Photo/Alberto Saiz)
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Abandoned and mangled cars in Valencia on Thursday. Pic: AP

Will they keep happening?

A red weather warning is in place for the Huelva area of Andalusia until Friday afternoon.

Beyond the warning period, storms are set to continue across parts of Spain for several days.

In the longer term, Dr Marilena Oltmanns says: “Given the long-term warming trend, both in the sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean region and the global air temperature, we expect the events like the currently observed one in Spain to become more frequent.”

Chiva and the surrounding worst-hit area also suffers from the unfortunate geography of being in a river catchment – where water feeds into the River Turia – and close to the mountains. And is not far from the sea.

That means water has little chance to absorb into the land and so builds up very quickly.

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This makes it all the more imperative that forecasts are accurate, authorities prepare accordingly, and residents respond quickly.

Professor Hannah Cloke, professor of Hydrology at the University of Reading, describes people dying in their cars and being swept away in the street as “entirely avoidable”.

“This suggests the system for alerting people to the dangers of floods in Valencia has failed,” she says.

“People need to understand that extreme weather warnings for floods are very different from regular weather reports. We need to consider flood warnings totally differently, more like fire alarms or earthquake sirens, and less like the way we browse daily weather forecasts on our phones or on the TV.”

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Residents: ‘No one came to rescue us’

Gareth Redmond-King, international analyst at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), says Spain’s tragedy should serve as a “wake-up call” to the UK.

“This is not about future events in a far-off place with a dramatically different climate from the UK. Spain is one of our nearest neighbours,” he warns.

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