TV debates have mattered more than ever before in this year’s US presidential election.
President Joe Biden’s pitiful performance on 27 June effectively knocked the incumbent out of the race for the White House.
Then on 10 September Biden’s replacement, vice president Kamala Harris, proved she is a real contender, baiting her opponent Donald Trump into wild statements such as “they’re eating the pets!”.
The Democrats have recovered in the polls since Harris took over the nomination, including in so-called swing states, to the point that she is now narrow favourite to beat Trump, according to some respected analysts.
Others still reckon the Republican Trump will be re-elected. Either way, all agree the contest is on a knife edge with voting already under way in a handful of less populated states, and opening next week in Illinois.
With things so close, the televised debate next Tuesday could even tip the balance.
“All the needle needs to be moved is 0.1% in either direction, and that could be the difference in four or five states,” according to Steven Maviglio, a Democratic strategist.
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Harris and Trump will not be on stage. This latest debate in CBS studios in New York City on 1 October is between their running mates, JD Vance and Tim Walz.
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In most years vice presidential debates are sideshows which have little impact on the voters. Not this year.
The rise of Harris to presidential candidate has shown Americans that VPs are important. Just as Trump had to scramble to find a new running mate following stinging condemnation from Mike Pence, the man who served as his vice president for four years.
Adding to the excitement, the two men who will be facing off this week are also the best phrase-makers in this campaign.
Vance wrote bestselling book Hillbilly Elegy, based on his rough upbringing in the Appalachians. He likes to launch sweeping attacks on his foes, including dismissing Democratic women as “childless cat ladies”. Taylor Swift embraced this jibe for herself in her recent post endorsing Harris.
Walz probably owes his place on the ticket to the single word “weird”, which he spent the summer sticking on Trump and Vance to devastating effect in multiple media interviews on behalf of the Democratic campaign.
The confrontation between the two men promises to be spicy.
There is a generation gap between them. Walz is 60. Vance is 20 years younger. Walz likes to present himself as a folksy centrist dad. In The Manual, a signature campaign commercial, Walz sets about fixing his old car, “a ’79 International Harvester Scout”, while likening it to creating an opportunity economy for all.
He is also a veteran democratic politician having served 12 years in Washington in the US House of Representatives before being elected Governor of Minnesota in 2018, the post he still holds.
Vance’s career has been meteoric. Four years in US Marine Corps provided his ladder to university. Then he became a corporate lawyer for investment firms.
Following the success of his book, his backers included the controversial tech titans Peter Thiel, Eric Schmidt and Marc Andreessen. After a lightning campaign in 2022, he is currently a first-term Republican US Senator for Ohio.
Both men served in the military in non-combat roles. Vance was a journalist in uniform during his four years which included deployment to Iraq. Walz belonged to the Minnesota National Guard for 24 years.
The Harris campaign admitted he “misspoke” when he described assault rifles as “weapons of war that I carried in war”.
The two “VP picks” share archetypal middle-American backgrounds, Nebraska and Minnesota for Walz and Kentucky and Ohio for Vance, which were major factors in why they were chosen as running mates. Harris is from California, Trump from New York City and Florida, all of which are regarded as coastal fleshpots by citizens in “flyover states”.
Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona; the main candidates are all concentrating their campaigning on the battleground states – those most likely to “flip” decisively for one party or another, delivering a majority in the electoral college.
This weekend Walz has set up his debate camp in Michigan. In between mock debates in which the Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg is standing in for Vance, Walz will meet and greet the locals in the bayside resort of Harbor Springs. Conveniently there is a “Festival of the Book” taking place which will allow Walz to strut his stuff as a school teacher.
Vance has called up US representative Tom Emmer from Walz’s home state for his prep. The House majority whip should know where his old foe’s vulnerabilities lie.
This debate will not be relaxed. Unusually for a vice presidential encounter, the protagonists will not be sitting down, they will be standing at lecterns. The last time that happened was 2008 with Sarah Palin and Joe Biden.
As with the other debates this year, the Presidential Debates Commission has not been called upon to organise this one. The two sides agreed their own rules with the broadcaster. This time there will be no studio audience, once again, and two moderators: CBS presenters news anchor Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan of Meet The Press.
As Harris continues to challenge Trump to another debate without success, Vance has countered in advance demanding a second debate with Walz on 18 October. The Democrat is acting modest, protesting of Vance “he’s a Yale Law guy. I’m public school teacher”.
Walz hopes to play the part of a schoolmaster chiding a tearaway pupil. He will do well if he can emulate Lloyd Bentsen’s crushing put down of the younger Dan Quayle in their 1988 vice presidential debate: “I knew Jack Kennedy. You’re no Jack Kennedy.”
Walz has fertile territory to exploit. JD Vance has already had to eat many of his wilder statements. He once likened his boss Trump to “Hitler”. For electoral reasons he has U-turned on his book’s thesis that his fellow poor whites were to blame for their own fecklessness.
Republican strategists hope that Vance will counter Walz’s rebukes over sexism and abortion by sticking to mainstream issues such as inflation and immigration.
Vance can boast a nuanced personal record on some social issues including healthcare. But he is also pugnacious and may be unable to resist going after Walz aggressively for what Republicans regard as his left-wing voting record.
Trump’s groundless claims that Harris is “a communist” seem to be impressing Hispanic voters.
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1:29
Crowd chants ‘we’re not eating cats’
Walz has more to lose and Vance has more to prove in the debate. Harris has embraced her choice of Walz, notably by appearing with him for her first major TV interview. Trump barely mentions Vance at his rallies. In opinion polls Walz has net approval ratings of 10%, Vance is at around minus 35%.
Debates are proving their value in this election year. Americans are paying increasing attention to them. 51.3 million tuned in to Biden/Trump earlier in the summer, 67.1 million watched Harris/Trump earlier this month.
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An outcome on Tuesday night as vivid as in the two previous debates this year could well be a defining moment for the next presidency.
On the other hand, both veteran Democrats and Republicans will also remember that while Lloyd Bentsen smashed the debate, George H W Bush and Dan Quayle won the election.
It was the first time a US president had been convicted of or charged with a criminal offence.
Trump had tried to cover up “hush money” payments to a porn star in the days before the 2016 election.
When Stormy Daniels‘ claimsof a sexual liaison threatened to upend his presidential campaign, Trump directed his lawyer to pay $130,000 (£102,000) to keep her quiet.
The payment buried the story and he later won the presidency.
Trump denied the charges and said the case was politically motivated. He also denied the sexual encounter took place.
New York State Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan today delayed the sentencing, which had been due to take place on Tuesday.
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The office of district attorney Alvin Bragg had asked the judge to postpone all proceedings until Trump finishes his four-year presidency, which starts on 20 January.
Trump’s lawyers say the case should be dismissed because it will create “unconstitutional impediments” to his ability to govern.
Responding to Friday’s decision, a Trump campaign spokesman said: “The American People have issued a mandate to return him to office and dispose of all remnants of the Witch Hunt cases.”
The judge set a 2 December deadline for Trump’s lawyers to file their motion, while prosecutors have until 9 December to respond.
He did not set a new date for sentencing or indicate when he would rule on any motion to throw out the case.
Even before Trump’s win in this month’s election, experts said a jail term was unlikely and a fine or probation more probable.
But his resounding victory over Kamala Harris made the prospect of time behind bars or probation even less likely.
Trump, 78, was also charged last year in three other cases.
One involved him keeping classified documents after he left office and the other two centre on alleged efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss.
A Florida judge dismissed the documents case in July, the Georgia election case is in limbo, and the Justice Department is expected to wind down the federal election case as it has a policy of not prosecuting a sitting president.
Trump last week nominated his lawyers in the hush money case, Todd Blanche and Emil Bove, for senior roles in the Justice department.
When he re-enters the White House, Trump will also have the power to shut down the Georgia and New York cases.
Donald Trump has pledged for years to surround himself with ultra-loyalists who can mould his government to his vision without barriers.
That’s precisely why he picked Matt Gaetz. Now he’s out, Pam Bondi is in and she’s equally loyal.
Gaetz was uniquely unpopular on Capitol Hill but ultra-MAGA and ultra-loyal to the president-elect.
He was chosen by the president-elect to do his bidding inside the Justice Department as attorney general.
Critics called his pick “a red alert moment for democracy” and the man a “gonzo agent of chaos” – language that would surely only affirm Trump’s decision in his own proudly disruptive mind.
If it wasn’t for the fact that the president-elect is himself a convicted felon, and a man found liable in a civil court of his own sexual offences, the prospect of Gaetz, with all his baggage, making it through the nomination process would have seemed remote.
But Donald Trump’s return to the White House suggested anything is possible.
And so, beyond his loyalty, Gaetz was Trump’s test for his foot soldiers on Capitol Hill. How loyal were they? Would they wave through anyone he appointed?
It turns out that Gaetz, and the storm around his private life, was too much for a proportion of them.
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At least five Senate Republicans were flatly against Matt Gaetz’s confirmation. We understand that they communicated to other senators and those close to Trump that they were unlikely to be swayed.
They included the Republican old guard like Senator Mitch McConnell.
Beyond the hard “no” senators, there were between 20 and 30 other Republicans who were very uncomfortable about having to vote for Gaetz on the Senate floor.
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2:23
Trump pick Matt Gaetz withdraws
The key question is whether Gaetz was Trump’s intentional wild card crazy choice that he knew, deep down, would probably never fly.
Was Gaetz the candidate he had accepted would be vetoed by senators – who would then feel compelled to wave the rest of his nominees through?
Will Pete Hegseth’s alleged sexual impropriety concern them as they consider the suitability of the former Fox News host and army major to run the Department of Defence?
What about Tulsi Gabbard, the candidate Russian state TV calls ‘our girl’, and the appropriateness of her running America’s intelligence agencies?
These are all appointments that the politicians on Capitol Hill must consider and confirm in the weeks ahead.
We don’t yet know who Trump will choose to direct the FBI.
There are some names being floated which will make the establishment of Washington shudder but then that’s precisely why Trump was elected. He is the disrupter. He said so at every rally, on repeat.
He was quick to pivot to another name to replace Gaetz.
Bondi is the former attorney general of Florida. Professionally she is in a different league to Gaetz. She’s been a tough prosecutor, with a no-nonsense reputation.
She is also among the most loyal of loyalists. Her attachment to Trump stretches way back.
I first came across her in Philadelphia in November 2020 when she was among Trump surrogates claiming the election back then had been stolen from them by Joe Bidenand the Democrats.
She was a key proponent of the false claims the election had been rigged and Trump was the rightful winner.
The court cases concluding that was all nonsense didn’t seem to convince her.
Now she is poised to head up the Department of Justice as the country’s top law enforcement official.
Within hours of taking office, president-elect Donald Trump plans to begin rolling out policies including large-scale deportations, according to his transition team.
Sky News partner network NBC News has spoken with more than half a dozen people familiar with the executive orders that his team plans to enact.
One campaign official said changes are expected at a pace that is “like nothing you’ve seen in history”, to signal a dramatic break from President Joe Biden’s administration.
Mr Trump is preparing on day one to overturn specific policies put in place by Mr Biden. Among the measures, reported by sources close to the transition team, are:
• The speedy and large-scale deportations of illegal immigrants
• Ending travel reimbursement for military members seeking abortion care
• Restricting transgender service members’ access to gender-affirming care
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But much of the first day is likely to focus on stopping illegal immigration – the centrepiece of Trump’s candidacy. He is expected to sign up to five executive orders aimed at dealing with that issue alone after he is sworn in on 20 January.
“There will without question be a lot of movement quickly, likely day one, on the immigration front,” a top Trump ally said.
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“There will be a push to make a huge early show and assert himself to show his campaign promises were not hollow.”
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2:23
Donald Trump ally Matt Gaetz has withdrawn his name from consideration to be the next US attorney general.
But Mr Trump’s campaign pledges also could be difficult to implement.
Deporting people on the scale he wants will be a logistical challenge that could take years. Questions also remain about promised tax cuts.
Meanwhile, his pledge to end the war between Russia and Ukraine in just 24 hours would be near impossible.
Even so, advisers based at Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort or at nearby offices in West Palm Beach, Florida, are reportedly strategising about ending the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Following his decisive victory on 5 November, the president-elect has moved swiftly to build a cabinet and senior White House team.
As of Thursday, he had selected more than 30 people for senior positions in his administration, compared with just three at a similar point in his 2016 transition.
Stephen Moore, a senior economic adviser in Mr Trump’s campaign, told NBC News: “The thing to realise is Trump is no dummy.
“He knows he’s got two to three years at most to get anything done. And then he becomes a lame duck and we start talking about [the presidential election in] 2028.”