Adam Boulton: JD Vance v Tim Walz – why the vice presidential debate could sway US election
TV debates have mattered more than ever before in this year’s US presidential election.
President Joe Biden’s pitiful performance on 27 June effectively knocked the incumbent out of the race for the White House.
Then on 10 September Biden’s replacement, vice president Kamala Harris, proved she is a real contender, baiting her opponent Donald Trump into wild statements such as “they’re eating the pets!”.
The Democrats have recovered in the polls since Harris took over the nomination, including in so-called swing states, to the point that she is now narrow favourite to beat Trump, according to some respected analysts.
Others still reckon the Republican Trump will be re-elected. Either way, all agree the contest is on a knife edge with voting already under way in a handful of less populated states, and opening next week in Illinois.
With things so close, the televised debate next Tuesday could even tip the balance.
“All the needle needs to be moved is 0.1% in either direction, and that could be the difference in four or five states,” according to Steven Maviglio, a Democratic strategist.
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Harris and Trump will not be on stage. This latest debate in CBS studios in New York City on 1 October is between their running mates, JD Vance and Tim Walz.
In most years vice presidential debates are sideshows which have little impact on the voters. Not this year.
The rise of Harris to presidential candidate has shown Americans that VPs are important. Just as Trump had to scramble to find a new running mate following stinging condemnation from Mike Pence, the man who served as his vice president for four years.
Adding to the excitement, the two men who will be facing off this week are also the best phrase-makers in this campaign.
Donald Trump and JD Vance. Pic: AP
Vance wrote bestselling book Hillbilly Elegy, based on his rough upbringing in the Appalachians. He likes to launch sweeping attacks on his foes, including dismissing Democratic women as “childless cat ladies”. Taylor Swift embraced this jibe for herself in her recent post endorsing Harris.
Walz probably owes his place on the ticket to the single word “weird”, which he spent the summer sticking on Trump and Vance to devastating effect in multiple media interviews on behalf of the Democratic campaign.
The confrontation between the two men promises to be spicy.
There is a generation gap between them. Walz is 60. Vance is 20 years younger. Walz likes to present himself as a folksy centrist dad. In The Manual, a signature campaign commercial, Walz sets about fixing his old car, “a ’79 International Harvester Scout”, while likening it to creating an opportunity economy for all.
He is also a veteran democratic politician having served 12 years in Washington in the US House of Representatives before being elected Governor of Minnesota in 2018, the post he still holds.
Vance’s career has been meteoric. Four years in US Marine Corps provided his ladder to university. Then he became a corporate lawyer for investment firms.
Following the success of his book, his backers included the controversial tech titans Peter Thiel, Eric Schmidt and Marc Andreessen. After a lightning campaign in 2022, he is currently a first-term Republican US Senator for Ohio.
JD Vance wrote the bestseller Hillbilly Elegy based on his upbringing. Pic: Reuters
Read more:
Who is JD Vance?
Analysis: Why Harris picked Walz
Both men served in the military in non-combat roles. Vance was a journalist in uniform during his four years which included deployment to Iraq. Walz belonged to the Minnesota National Guard for 24 years.
The Harris campaign admitted he “misspoke” when he described assault rifles as “weapons of war that I carried in war”.
The two “VP picks” share archetypal middle-American backgrounds, Nebraska and Minnesota for Walz and Kentucky and Ohio for Vance, which were major factors in why they were chosen as running mates. Harris is from California, Trump from New York City and Florida, all of which are regarded as coastal fleshpots by citizens in “flyover states”.
Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona; the main candidates are all concentrating their campaigning on the battleground states – those most likely to “flip” decisively for one party or another, delivering a majority in the electoral college.
Tim Walz during a campaign event in Minnesota in 2016. Pic: AP
This weekend Walz has set up his debate camp in Michigan. In between mock debates in which the Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg is standing in for Vance, Walz will meet and greet the locals in the bayside resort of Harbor Springs. Conveniently there is a “Festival of the Book” taking place which will allow Walz to strut his stuff as a school teacher.
Vance has called up US representative Tom Emmer from Walz’s home state for his prep. The House majority whip should know where his old foe’s vulnerabilities lie.
This debate will not be relaxed. Unusually for a vice presidential encounter, the protagonists will not be sitting down, they will be standing at lecterns. The last time that happened was 2008 with Sarah Palin and Joe Biden.
As with the other debates this year, the Presidential Debates Commission has not been called upon to organise this one. The two sides agreed their own rules with the broadcaster. This time there will be no studio audience, once again, and two moderators: CBS presenters news anchor Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan of Meet The Press.
As Harris continues to challenge Trump to another debate without success, Vance has countered in advance demanding a second debate with Walz on 18 October. The Democrat is acting modest, protesting of Vance “he’s a Yale Law guy. I’m public school teacher”.
Pics: AP/Reuters
Walz hopes to play the part of a schoolmaster chiding a tearaway pupil. He will do well if he can emulate Lloyd Bentsen’s crushing put down of the younger Dan Quayle in their 1988 vice presidential debate: “I knew Jack Kennedy. You’re no Jack Kennedy.”
Walz has fertile territory to exploit. JD Vance has already had to eat many of his wilder statements. He once likened his boss Trump to “Hitler”. For electoral reasons he has U-turned on his book’s thesis that his fellow poor whites were to blame for their own fecklessness.
Republican strategists hope that Vance will counter Walz’s rebukes over sexism and abortion by sticking to mainstream issues such as inflation and immigration.
Vance can boast a nuanced personal record on some social issues including healthcare. But he is also pugnacious and may be unable to resist going after Walz aggressively for what Republicans regard as his left-wing voting record.
Trump’s groundless claims that Harris is “a communist” seem to be impressing Hispanic voters.
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Crowd chants ‘we’re not eating cats’
Walz has more to lose and Vance has more to prove in the debate. Harris has embraced her choice of Walz, notably by appearing with him for her first major TV interview. Trump barely mentions Vance at his rallies. In opinion polls Walz has net approval ratings of 10%, Vance is at around minus 35%.
Debates are proving their value in this election year. Americans are paying increasing attention to them. 51.3 million tuned in to Biden/Trump earlier in the summer, 67.1 million watched Harris/Trump earlier this month.
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An outcome on Tuesday night as vivid as in the two previous debates this year could well be a defining moment for the next presidency.
On the other hand, both veteran Democrats and Republicans will also remember that while Lloyd Bentsen smashed the debate, George H W Bush and Dan Quayle won the election.
From the White House these past 100 days, I’ve chronicled the whirlwind that’s reshaping America.
Getting beyond the West Wing and out of Washington has been harder. The volume of news has necessitated a near-constant presence in the US capital.
Every single day, there has been something. Of course, this has been entirely intentional for the president and his team of proud disrupters.
They pledged to govern differently, and on that promise, they have more than delivered.
To fix America, Donald Trump first had to convince people that it is broken. Many didn’t need convincing. Look for decline here and you’ll easily find it; communities left behind.
Look for bureaucracy and waste – you’ll find that too. Common sense silenced by wokism? Many can relate to that. Immigration out of control? Politicians have been struggling with that for decades.
In just 100 days, Mr Trump has harnessed all of that into a package of change that feels like nothing short of a revolution.
Despite the tsunami of news, my colleagues and I have managed to escape from the White House. And it is there, beyond Washington, that the more subtle but no less profound changes to the fabric of this nation can be felt.
Whether it be innocuous tattoos that might now be associated with gang membership, free speech opinions penned on social media, or the willingness just to chat about politics, one startling thing I have observed these past 100 days is a growing sense of fear.
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Does Trump really ‘run the country and the world?’
A passion for politics
Anyone who has worked as a foreign correspondent in America will tell you that Americans love to give their opinion on politics. And they do it, always, with word-perfect articulation. There is no better place in the world for a ‘voxpop’.
There is a passion for politics that I haven’t seen anywhere else I’ve lived and worked. Until now. Over these past 100 days, I have increasingly found a reticence that reflects an America changed by this president and his style.
I’m in Detroit at the moment, in Michigan, the battleground state that helped to deliver Donald Trump the presidency back in November. I was here back then, too, and recall the enthusiasm with which people would discuss the upcoming election. There was enthusiasm for Trump and enthusiasm for Harris.
An indictment of the times
Now the response to my questions is, so often, “no thanks, I’d rather not”. Sometimes people ask where the report will be seen. “Will it be on in America?” Think about it – this is America. What an indictment of the times, that people fear offering their opinion – whatever side of the aisle they sit.
Very often, it’s businesses that are extremely cautious of being associated with one political view or another. Such is the animosity now between the two sides.
After a day of perseverance in Detroit this week, a few folk did talk to us. Their answers were revealing.
In a park, I met Marie Freeman who said people are now “more angry”. Her view is that America has lost something over these past 100 days.
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“I definitely want us to move forward in a positive, more empathetic way. I think with Trump being such a hardcore president, we lose the empathy, we lose the grace for our fellow neighbours. We’re all so angry because we’re under angry leadership. And that’s not good.”
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She articulated a vibe which I recognise in so many parts of this country right now. A lack of grace and empathy.
Yet, yards away, a couple walking their cats stopped to chat. I asked how they would rate these past 100 days. Two tens out of ten for Trump’s performance.
US
Trump ‘very disappointed’ in Russian strikes on Ukraine and calls for Putin to ‘sit down and sign a deal’
Donald Trump has said he’s “very disappointed” with Russia as he continues to push for a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine.
On Saturday, the US president met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Vatican for their first face-to-face meeting since their explosive White House summit.
The Ukrainian president said the meeting ahead of Pope Francis’s funeral could end up being “historic.” Hours later, Mr Trump questioned Vladimir Putin’s appetite for peace in a Truth Social post.
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From Saturday: Trump meets Zelenskyy at funeral
Speaking before boarding Air Force One on Sunday, Mr Trump again said the meeting went well, and that the Ukrainian leader was “calmer”.
“I think he understands the picture, I think he wants to make a deal,” he said, before turning to Mr Putin and Russia.
“I want him to stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal,” the US president said, adding he was “very disappointed that they did the bombing of those places (including Kyiv, where nine people were killed in a Russian airstrike on Friday) after discussions”.
However, Mr Trump said he thinks Mr Zelenskyy is ready to give up Crimea, which the Ukrainian leader has repeatedly said he would refuse to do.
He added that “we’ll see what happens in the next few days” and said “don’t talk to me about Crimea, talk to Obama and Biden about Crimea”.
Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, while Barack Obama was president.
Meanwhile, US secretary of state Marco Rubio told Sky’s US partner network NBC News that a peace deal to end the war was “closer in general than they’ve been any time in the last three years, but it’s still not there”.
“If this was an easy war to end, it would have been ended by someone else a long time ago,” he added on the Meet the Press show.
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It comes after North Korea confirmed it had deployed troops to fight for Russia, months after Ukraine and Western officials said its forces were in Europe.
State media outlet KCNA reported North Korean soldiers made an “important contribution” to expelling Ukrainian forces from Russian territory, likely to be the Kursk region.
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KCNA said leader Kim Jong Un made the decision to deploy troops to Russia and notified Moscow, and quoted him as saying: “They who fought for justice are all heroes and representatives of the honour of the motherland.”
It also quoted the country’s ruling Workers’ Party as saying the end of the battle to liberate Kursk showed the “highest strategic level of the firm militant friendship” between North Korea and Russia.
Last June, Mr Kim and Mr Putin signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty after a state visit – his first to the country in 24 years.
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From June 2024: Putin drives Kim around in luxury limo during state visit
The North Korean leader promised at the time “full support and solidarity to the Russian government, army and people in carrying out the special military operation in Ukraine”.
Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew of sexual assault, has died aged 41.
In a statement to Sky’s US partner network NBC News on Friday, her family said she took her own life in the Perth suburb of Neergabby, Australia, where she had been living for several years.
“It is with utterly broken hearts that we announce that Virginia passed away last night at her farm in Western Australia,” her family said.
“She lost her life to suicide, after being a lifelong victim of sexual abuse and sex trafficking.
“Virginia was a fierce warrior in the fight against sexual abuse and sex trafficking. She was the light that lifted so many survivors.
“In the end, the toll of abuse is so heavy that it became unbearable for Virginia to handle its weight.”
Pic: AP
Police said emergency services received reports of an unresponsive woman at a property in Neergabby on Friday night.
“Police and St John Western Australia attended and provided emergency first aid. Sadly, the 41-year-old woman was declared deceased at the scene,” a police spokeswoman said.
“The death is being investigated by Major Crime detectives; early indication is the death is not suspicious.”
Sexual assault claims
Prince Andrew has denied all claims of wrongdoing. File pic: Reuters
Ms Giuffre sued the Duke of York for sexual abuse in August 2021, saying Andrew had sex with her when she was 17 and had been trafficked by his friend, the billionaire paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
The duke has repeatedly denied the claims, and he has not been charged with any criminal offences.
In March 2022, it was announced Ms Giuffre and Andrew had reached an out-of-court settlement – believed to include a “substantial donation to Ms Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights”.
‘An incredible champion’
Sigrid McCawley, Ms Giuffre’s attorney, said in a statement that she “was much more than a client to me; she was a dear friend and an incredible champion for other victims”.
“Her courage pushed me to fight harder, and her strength was awe-inspiring,” she said. “The world has lost an amazing human being today.”
“Rest in peace, my sweet angel,” she added.
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Dini von Mueffling, Ms Giuffre’s representative, also said that “Virginia was one of the most extraordinary human beings I have ever had the honour to know”.
“Deeply loving, wise, and funny, she was a beacon to other survivors and victims,” she added. “She adored her children and many animals.
“She was always more concerned with me than with herself. I will miss her beyond words.
“It was the privilege of a lifetime to represent her.”
Ms Giuffre said at the end of March she had four days to live after a car accident, posting on social media that “I’ve gone into kidney renal failure”. She was discharged from hospital eight days later.
Raised mainly in Florida, she said she was abused by a family friend early in life, which led to her living on the streets at times as a teenager.
She said that in 2000, she met Ghislaine Maxwell, a British socialite who was convicted in 2021 on federal sex trafficking and conspiracy charges and was sentenced to 20 years in prison.
Ghislaine Maxwell and Jeffrey Epstein. Pic: US Department of Justice
Ms Giuffre said Maxwell then introduced her to Epstein and hired her as his masseuse, and said she was sex trafficked and sexually abused by him and associates around the world.
‘A survivor’
After meeting her husband in 2002, while taking massage training in Thailand at what she said was Epstein’s behest, she moved to Australia and had a family.
She founded the sex trafficking victims’ advocacy charity SOAR in 2015, and is quoted on its website as saying: “I do this for victims everywhere.
“I am no longer the young and vulnerable girl who could be bullied. I am now a survivor, and nobody can ever take that away from me.”
:: Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.
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