Adam Boulton: JD Vance v Tim Walz – why the vice presidential debate could sway US election

Published

1 year ago

September 30, 2024

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TV debates have mattered more than ever before in this year’s US presidential election.

President Joe Biden’s pitiful performance on 27 June effectively knocked the incumbent out of the race for the White House.

Then on 10 September Biden’s replacement, vice president Kamala Harris, proved she is a real contender, baiting her opponent Donald Trump into wild statements such as “they’re eating the pets!”.

The Democrats have recovered in the polls since Harris took over the nomination, including in so-called swing states, to the point that she is now narrow favourite to beat Trump, according to some respected analysts.

Others still reckon the Republican Trump will be re-elected. Either way, all agree the contest is on a knife edge with voting already under way in a handful of less populated states, and opening next week in Illinois.

With things so close, the televised debate next Tuesday could even tip the balance.

“All the needle needs to be moved is 0.1% in either direction, and that could be the difference in four or five states,” according to Steven Maviglio, a Democratic strategist.

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Harris and Trump will not be on stage. This latest debate in CBS studios in New York City on 1 October is between their running mates, JD Vance and Tim Walz.

In most years vice presidential debates are sideshows which have little impact on the voters. Not this year.

The rise of Harris to presidential candidate has shown Americans that VPs are important. Just as Trump had to scramble to find a new running mate following stinging condemnation from Mike Pence, the man who served as his vice president for four years.

Adding to the excitement, the two men who will be facing off this week are also the best phrase-makers in this campaign.

Vance wrote bestselling book Hillbilly Elegy, based on his rough upbringing in the Appalachians. He likes to launch sweeping attacks on his foes, including dismissing Democratic women as “childless cat ladies”. Taylor Swift embraced this jibe for herself in her recent post endorsing Harris.

Walz probably owes his place on the ticket to the single word “weird”, which he spent the summer sticking on Trump and Vance to devastating effect in multiple media interviews on behalf of the Democratic campaign.

The confrontation between the two men promises to be spicy.

There is a generation gap between them. Walz is 60. Vance is 20 years younger. Walz likes to present himself as a folksy centrist dad. In The Manual, a signature campaign commercial, Walz sets about fixing his old car, “a ’79 International Harvester Scout”, while likening it to creating an opportunity economy for all.

He is also a veteran democratic politician having served 12 years in Washington in the US House of Representatives before being elected Governor of Minnesota in 2018, the post he still holds.

Vance’s career has been meteoric. Four years in US Marine Corps provided his ladder to university. Then he became a corporate lawyer for investment firms.

Following the success of his book, his backers included the controversial tech titans Peter Thiel, Eric Schmidt and Marc Andreessen. After a lightning campaign in 2022, he is currently a first-term Republican US Senator for Ohio.

Both men served in the military in non-combat roles. Vance was a journalist in uniform during his four years which included deployment to Iraq. Walz belonged to the Minnesota National Guard for 24 years.

The Harris campaign admitted he “misspoke” when he described assault rifles as “weapons of war that I carried in war”.

The two “VP picks” share archetypal middle-American backgrounds, Nebraska and Minnesota for Walz and Kentucky and Ohio for Vance, which were major factors in why they were chosen as running mates. Harris is from California, Trump from New York City and Florida, all of which are regarded as coastal fleshpots by citizens in “flyover states”.

Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona; the main candidates are all concentrating their campaigning on the battleground states – those most likely to “flip” decisively for one party or another, delivering a majority in the electoral college.

This weekend Walz has set up his debate camp in Michigan. In between mock debates in which the Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg is standing in for Vance, Walz will meet and greet the locals in the bayside resort of Harbor Springs. Conveniently there is a “Festival of the Book” taking place which will allow Walz to strut his stuff as a school teacher.

Vance has called up US representative Tom Emmer from Walz’s home state for his prep. The House majority whip should know where his old foe’s vulnerabilities lie.

This debate will not be relaxed. Unusually for a vice presidential encounter, the protagonists will not be sitting down, they will be standing at lecterns. The last time that happened was 2008 with Sarah Palin and Joe Biden.

As with the other debates this year, the Presidential Debates Commission has not been called upon to organise this one. The two sides agreed their own rules with the broadcaster. This time there will be no studio audience, once again, and two moderators: CBS presenters news anchor Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan of Meet The Press.

As Harris continues to challenge Trump to another debate without success, Vance has countered in advance demanding a second debate with Walz on 18 October. The Democrat is acting modest, protesting of Vance “he’s a Yale Law guy. I’m public school teacher”.

Walz hopes to play the part of a schoolmaster chiding a tearaway pupil. He will do well if he can emulate Lloyd Bentsen’s crushing put down of the younger Dan Quayle in their 1988 vice presidential debate: “I knew Jack Kennedy. You’re no Jack Kennedy.”

Walz has fertile territory to exploit. JD Vance has already had to eat many of his wilder statements. He once likened his boss Trump to “Hitler”. For electoral reasons he has U-turned on his book’s thesis that his fellow poor whites were to blame for their own fecklessness.

Republican strategists hope that Vance will counter Walz’s rebukes over sexism and abortion by sticking to mainstream issues such as inflation and immigration.

Vance can boast a nuanced personal record on some social issues including healthcare. But he is also pugnacious and may be unable to resist going after Walz aggressively for what Republicans regard as his left-wing voting record.

Trump’s groundless claims that Harris is “a communist” seem to be impressing Hispanic voters.

Walz has more to lose and Vance has more to prove in the debate. Harris has embraced her choice of Walz, notably by appearing with him for her first major TV interview. Trump barely mentions Vance at his rallies. In opinion polls Walz has net approval ratings of 10%, Vance is at around minus 35%.

Debates are proving their value in this election year. Americans are paying increasing attention to them. 51.3 million tuned in to Biden/Trump earlier in the summer, 67.1 million watched Harris/Trump earlier this month.

An outcome on Tuesday night as vivid as in the two previous debates this year could well be a defining moment for the next presidency.

On the other hand, both veteran Democrats and Republicans will also remember that while Lloyd Bentsen smashed the debate, George H W Bush and Dan Quayle won the election.

US

Donald Trump authorises deployment of 300 National Guard troops to Chicago

Published

13 hours ago

October 5, 2025

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Donald Trump authorises deployment of 300 National Guard troops to Chicago

Donald Trump has ordered the deployment of 300 National Guard members to Chicago, the latest in a string of cities where US troops have been sent.

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson confirmed the US president authorised the move, citing what she called “ongoing violent riots and lawlessness” that local leaders have not quelled.

“President Trump will not turn a blind eye to the lawlessness plaguing American cities,” Ms Jackson said.

Chicago is the latest city in the US where Mr Trump has authorised the deployment of US troops, as it follows similar orders for Los Angeles, Washington and Portland.

Democratic governor JB Pritzker branded the move unnecessary and “a manufactured performance – not a serious effort to protect public safety”.

The Illinois governor said in a statement: “This morning, the Trump administration’s Department of War gave me an ultimatum: call up your troops, or we will.

“It is absolutely outrageous and un-American to demand a governor send military troops within our own borders and against our will.”

It comes as an attempt by the Trump administration to deploy the National Guard in Portland, Oregon, was temporarily blocked by a federal judge in a lawsuit brought by the state and city.

The plaintiffs said a deployment would violate the US constitution as well as a federal law that generally prohibits the military from being used to enforce domestic laws.

Mr Trump ordered the deployment of troops to “war-ravaged Portland” last week, authorising the use of “full force” if needed.

The move came after a gunman opened fire on an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) field office in Dallas, wounding two detainees and killing another.

Mr Trump sent the National Guard to Los Angeles over the summer and to Washington DC, as part of his law enforcement takeover there.

US

Trump says Gaza ceasefire will begin ‘immediately’ when Hamas confirms deal

Published

1 day ago

October 5, 2025

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Trump says Gaza ceasefire will begin 'immediately' when Hamas confirms deal

Donald Trump has said a ceasefire in Gaza will begin “immediately” after Hamas agrees to a new US plan to end the war.

The US president said Israel had “agreed to the initial withdrawal line” and “when Hamas confirms”, the ceasefire will start, Israeli hostages will be released and a prisoner exchange will begin.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump said it would “create the conditions for the next phase of withdrawal, which will bring us close to the end of this 3,000-year catastrophe”.

It came as Hamas accused the Israeli government of lying about reducing its military operations, accusing it of continuing to “commit its horrific crimes and massacres” against Palestinians in Gaza, claiming 70 people had been killed by strikes since Saturday morning.

The group said it “exposes the false claims of the war criminal Netanyahu’s government regarding scaling back military operations against defenceless civilians”.

It comes after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he hopes to announce the release of all hostages from Gaza “in the coming days”.

Mr Netanyahu made the remarks as indirect talks with Hamas continue in Egypt on a new US plan to end the war.

Speaking after Hamas said it had accepted some elements of the plan, Mr Netanyahu said he had sent the delegation to Egypt “to finalise technical details”, adding that “our goal is to contain these negotiations to a timeframe of a few days”.

Donald Trump has welcomed Hamas’s statement, but on Saturday warned the group “must move quickly, or else all bets will be off”.

Trump orders Israel to stop bombing Gaza

Earlier in the day, Israel’s army said the country’s leaders had instructed it to prepare for the first phase of the US plan to end the war in Gaza.

Israel has moved to a defensive-only position in Gaza and will not actively strike, one official said, adding that no forces have been removed from the territory.

It came hours after Mr Trump ordered Israel to stop bombing Gaza after Hamas said it accepted some elements of his plan.

What’s in the peace plan?

Mr Trump’s proposed plan to end the war has widespread international support and on Friday, Mr Netanyahu’s office said Israel was committed to bringing the conflict to an end.

Under the plan, Hamas would release the remaining 48 hostages, of which around 20 are believed to still be alive, within three days. It would also give up power in Gaza and disarm.

In return, Israel would end its offensive and withdraw from much of Gaza, as well as release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and allow an influx of humanitarian aid and eventual reconstruction.

Hamas has said it is willing to release the hostages and hand over power to other Palestinians, but argued other aspects of the plan require further consultations among Palestinians. Its statement did not address the issue of Hamas demilitarising, which is a key part of the deal.

Warning ‘extremists on both sides’ could sabotage peace plan

A group representing some families of hostages said the prospect of seeing their loved ones return “has never been closer” and they appealed to Mr Trump to keep pushing “with full force”.

They warned “extremists on both sides” would try to sabotage the plan.

The war began when Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage.

Since then, at least 67,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, according to the enclave’s Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants in its count, but says women and children make up around half of the dead.

US

Trump tells Israel ‘stop bombing Gaza’ – as Hamas agrees to release Israeli hostages, and to parts of peace deal

Published

2 days ago

October 4, 2025

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Hamas agrees to release all remaining Israeli hostages - but seeks further talks on rest of Trump's peace deal

Donald Trump has said Hamas is ready for a “lasting peace” after the Palestinian militants agreed to release all remaining hostages, as he called on Israel to stop bombing Gaza.

The US leader was responding to a statement by Hamas on Friday in which the group committed to returning all remaining hostages in Gaza, dead and alive.

Hamas also said it wants to engage in negotiations to discuss further details of the president’s peace plan, including handing over “administration of the enclave to a Palestinian body of independent technocrats”.

However, other aspects of the 20-point document, it warned, would require further consultation among Palestinians.

The Hamas statement came after Mr Trump warned he would unleash “all hell” if they did not respond to his peace plan, announced earlier this week, by Sunday.

Following the group’s response, the president said there was now a real chance of peace.

“I believe they are ready for a lasting PEACE,” Mr Trump posted on Truth Social. “Israel must immediately stop the bombing of Gaza, so that we can get the Hostages out safely and quickly!

“Right now, it’s far too dangerous to do that. We are already in discussions on details to be worked out. This is not about Gaza alone, this is about long sought PEACE in the Middle East.”

In a video later posted on his social media platform, Mr Trump called it a “very special day” and said the end of the war was “very close”.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was prepared for the implementation of the “first stage” of Mr Trump’s plan, apparently in reference to the release of hostages.

Moshe Emilio Lavi, brother-in-law of Israeli hostage Omri Miran, told Sky News he “can’t wait” to see his family reunited.

“We’ve received necessary guarantees from President Trump and the wider international community and now we have to keep pressuring Hamas to ensure that they abide by the Trump framework, that they disarm and release all the hostages within the 72 hours the framework outlines.

“There should be no buts and no delays, there should be only a yes to President Trump’s vision to end the conflict and bring home all the remaining hostages.”

Starmer calls for ‘agreement without delay’

Sir Keir Starmer said Hamas’s partial acceptance of the peace plan was a “significant step forwards” and called for an “agreement without delay”.

The prime minister said Mr Trump’s efforts “have brought us closer to peace than ever before” and added: “There is now an opportunity to end the fighting, for the hostages to return home, and for humanitarian aid to reach those who so desperately need it.

“We call on all sides to implement the agreement without delay.”

He went on to say the UK was ready to support further negotiations and work “towards sustainable peace for Israelis and Palestinians alike”.

French President Emmanuel Macron said “the release of all hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza are within reach”, while a spokesperson for UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres urged “all parties to seize the opportunity”.

Hamas agrees to release hostages

The breakthrough came just hours after Mr Trump had set the Sunday deadline to respond to his proposals, backed by the Arab nations.

The US president and the Israeli prime minister unveiled the peace plan at the White House on Monday.

Israel agreed to the terms, which include an immediate ceasefire; the release of all hostages; Hamas disarming; a guarantee no one will be forced to leave Gaza and a governing “peace panel” including Sir Tony Blair.

And on Friday, a statement from Hamas confirmed “its approval to release all prisoners of the occupation – whether alive or the remains of the deceased – according to the exchange framework included in President Trump’s proposal”.

Israel estimates 48 hostages remain in Gaza, 20 of whom are alive.

Hamas official says group will not disarm ‘before Israeli occupation ends’

The group also said it was ready to engage in negotiations through mediators and it appreciated “Arab, Islamic and international efforts, as well as the efforts of US President Donald Trump”.

But, Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk told Al Jazeera news the group would not disarm “before the Israeli occupation ends”.

Hamas acceptance – but with major caveats

By Celine Alkhaldi, Middle East producer

Hamas has issued a carefully worded response to Donald Trump’s Gaza proposal.

The group welcomed international efforts to end the fighting, agreed in principle to the release of all Israeli hostages, and said it is prepared to begin negotiations on the details of an agreement.

It also renewed its commitment to handing over administration of Gaza to a committee of Palestinian technocrats formed by national consensus and backed by Arab and Islamic states.

That position has been consistent for months and was not part of Mr Trump’s plan.

On wider questions, Hamas said decisions must be taken within a comprehensive Palestinian framework, leaving the most sensitive issues for future discussion.

The statement appears to accept parts of Mr Trump’s proposal, but in some areas it does not match its terms.

Hamas made no mention of disarmament, avoided any pledge to withdraw permanently from governing, and linked any hostage deal to a complete Israeli withdrawal.

Taken together, the response shows a willingness to engage on humanitarian and political steps already familiar from past proposals, while deferring the core disputes to a broader Palestinian process.

Hamas does not know where all hostages are

Sky News Middle East correspondent Adam Parsons said the “most important part” of the Hamas response was that it showed a willingness to do a deal.

“The peace plan could have died – Hamas could have rejected it – but it is still alive.”

He said there were still “huge obstacles” which would prevent outright acceptance though.

In spite of a pledge to release hostages, he said Hamas did not entirely know where all of them were – some were even being held by other groups.

Hamas’s support for a new government for Palestine was positive, he said, but the specification in the Hamas response that it should be purely Palestinian and not, as Mr Trump had proposed, a “panel” that included external representatives, would be problematic.