TV debates have mattered more than ever before in this year’s US presidential election.
President Joe Biden’s pitiful performance on 27 June effectively knocked the incumbent out of the race for the White House.
Then on 10 September Biden’s replacement, vice president Kamala Harris, proved she is a real contender, baiting her opponent Donald Trump into wild statements such as “they’re eating the pets!”.
The Democrats have recovered in the polls since Harris took over the nomination, including in so-called swing states, to the point that she is now narrow favourite to beat Trump, according to some respected analysts.
Others still reckon the Republican Trump will be re-elected. Either way, all agree the contest is on a knife edge with voting already under way in a handful of less populated states, and opening next week in Illinois.
With things so close, the televised debate next Tuesday could even tip the balance.
“All the needle needs to be moved is 0.1% in either direction, and that could be the difference in four or five states,” according to Steven Maviglio, a Democratic strategist.
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Harris and Trump will not be on stage. This latest debate in CBS studios in New York City on 1 October is between their running mates, JD Vance and Tim Walz.
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In most years vice presidential debates are sideshows which have little impact on the voters. Not this year.
The rise of Harris to presidential candidate has shown Americans that VPs are important. Just as Trump had to scramble to find a new running mate following stinging condemnation from Mike Pence, the man who served as his vice president for four years.
Adding to the excitement, the two men who will be facing off this week are also the best phrase-makers in this campaign.
Image: Donald Trump and JD Vance. Pic: AP
Vance wrote bestselling book Hillbilly Elegy, based on his rough upbringing in the Appalachians. He likes to launch sweeping attacks on his foes, including dismissing Democratic women as “childless cat ladies”. Taylor Swift embraced this jibe for herself in her recent post endorsing Harris.
Walz probably owes his place on the ticket to the single word “weird”, which he spent the summer sticking on Trump and Vance to devastating effect in multiple media interviews on behalf of the Democratic campaign.
The confrontation between the two men promises to be spicy.
There is a generation gap between them. Walz is 60. Vance is 20 years younger. Walz likes to present himself as a folksy centrist dad. In The Manual, a signature campaign commercial, Walz sets about fixing his old car, “a ’79 International Harvester Scout”, while likening it to creating an opportunity economy for all.
He is also a veteran democratic politician having served 12 years in Washington in the US House of Representatives before being elected Governor of Minnesota in 2018, the post he still holds.
Vance’s career has been meteoric. Four years in US Marine Corps provided his ladder to university. Then he became a corporate lawyer for investment firms.
Following the success of his book, his backers included the controversial tech titans Peter Thiel, Eric Schmidt and Marc Andreessen. After a lightning campaign in 2022, he is currently a first-term Republican US Senator for Ohio.
Image: JD Vance wrote the bestseller Hillbilly Elegy based on his upbringing. Pic: Reuters
Both men served in the military in non-combat roles. Vance was a journalist in uniform during his four years which included deployment to Iraq. Walz belonged to the Minnesota National Guard for 24 years.
The Harris campaign admitted he “misspoke” when he described assault rifles as “weapons of war that I carried in war”.
The two “VP picks” share archetypal middle-American backgrounds, Nebraska and Minnesota for Walz and Kentucky and Ohio for Vance, which were major factors in why they were chosen as running mates. Harris is from California, Trump from New York City and Florida, all of which are regarded as coastal fleshpots by citizens in “flyover states”.
Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona; the main candidates are all concentrating their campaigning on the battleground states – those most likely to “flip” decisively for one party or another, delivering a majority in the electoral college.
Image: Tim Walz during a campaign event in Minnesota in 2016. Pic: AP
This weekend Walz has set up his debate camp in Michigan. In between mock debates in which the Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg is standing in for Vance, Walz will meet and greet the locals in the bayside resort of Harbor Springs. Conveniently there is a “Festival of the Book” taking place which will allow Walz to strut his stuff as a school teacher.
Vance has called up US representative Tom Emmer from Walz’s home state for his prep. The House majority whip should know where his old foe’s vulnerabilities lie.
This debate will not be relaxed. Unusually for a vice presidential encounter, the protagonists will not be sitting down, they will be standing at lecterns. The last time that happened was 2008 with Sarah Palin and Joe Biden.
As with the other debates this year, the Presidential Debates Commission has not been called upon to organise this one. The two sides agreed their own rules with the broadcaster. This time there will be no studio audience, once again, and two moderators: CBS presenters news anchor Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan of Meet The Press.
As Harris continues to challenge Trump to another debate without success, Vance has countered in advance demanding a second debate with Walz on 18 October. The Democrat is acting modest, protesting of Vance “he’s a Yale Law guy. I’m public school teacher”.
Image: Pics: AP/Reuters
Walz hopes to play the part of a schoolmaster chiding a tearaway pupil. He will do well if he can emulate Lloyd Bentsen’s crushing put down of the younger Dan Quayle in their 1988 vice presidential debate: “I knew Jack Kennedy. You’re no Jack Kennedy.”
Walz has fertile territory to exploit. JD Vance has already had to eat many of his wilder statements. He once likened his boss Trump to “Hitler”. For electoral reasons he has U-turned on his book’s thesis that his fellow poor whites were to blame for their own fecklessness.
Republican strategists hope that Vance will counter Walz’s rebukes over sexism and abortion by sticking to mainstream issues such as inflation and immigration.
Vance can boast a nuanced personal record on some social issues including healthcare. But he is also pugnacious and may be unable to resist going after Walz aggressively for what Republicans regard as his left-wing voting record.
Trump’s groundless claims that Harris is “a communist” seem to be impressing Hispanic voters.
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1:29
Crowd chants ‘we’re not eating cats’
Walz has more to lose and Vance has more to prove in the debate. Harris has embraced her choice of Walz, notably by appearing with him for her first major TV interview. Trump barely mentions Vance at his rallies. In opinion polls Walz has net approval ratings of 10%, Vance is at around minus 35%.
Debates are proving their value in this election year. Americans are paying increasing attention to them. 51.3 million tuned in to Biden/Trump earlier in the summer, 67.1 million watched Harris/Trump earlier this month.
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An outcome on Tuesday night as vivid as in the two previous debates this year could well be a defining moment for the next presidency.
On the other hand, both veteran Democrats and Republicans will also remember that while Lloyd Bentsen smashed the debate, George H W Bush and Dan Quayle won the election.
As the world waits for Russia’s next move over the US-proposed ceasefire deal with Ukraine, only one man has been trusted to head up Donald Trump’s envoy to Moscow – and he’s far from the typical diplomat.
Initially named as Mr Trump’s Middle East envoy shortly after the US election, Steve Witkoff has since been involved in negotiations with Russia about ending the war in Ukraine.
His surprise trip to Moscow last month to achieve the release of US citizen Marc Fogel seemed to secure the 67-year-old as the US leader’s geopolitical dealmaker-in-chief.
Off the back of his first meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mr Witkoff is believed to be seeing him again later this week to discuss diplomatic proposals – though the Kremlin is yet to confirm this.
He has been chosen to go to Moscow by Mr Trump over US secretary of state Marco Rubio, who on paper is the country’s top diplomat, and Keith Kellogg, who was assigned to be the US envoy for Russia-Ukraine peace talks back in January.
So who is Steve Witkoff, and how important a figure will he be as the US tries to navigate peace between Russia and Ukraine?
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0:34
‘Trump is listening intently’ to European leaders
From New York real estate to the Oval Office
Born in the Bronx, New York State, Mr Witkoff trained as a lawyer in real estate before turning his hand to property development.
In the 1990s he created his company, the Witkoff Group, which owns a number of properties in New York, most notably the Park Lane Hotel and The Woolworth Building.
Similarly to Mr Trump, he brought his close family members into his company, including his wife, Lauren Rappoport, and their sons Zach and Alexander, who is co-chief executive.
As of 2019, the Witkoff Group owned almost 50 properties across the US and the rest of the world.
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1:06
‘If Russia says no, it will tell us a lot’
‘My dear friend President Trump’
The billionaire has known Mr Trump for decades, having first met him through a New York real estate company where the now president was a client.
Having remained close, the pair bonded over their mutual love of golf, and weredescribed by US senator Lindsey Graham as “longtime golf buddies”.
Mr Witkoff was one of those on the fifth hole with the president at his course in West Palm Beach, Florida, in September last year, when a second apparent assassination attempt was made on his life.
Image: Mr Trump and Mr Witkoff back in 2018. Pic: AP
But despite being regular opponents on the course, Mr Witkoff and Mr Trump are very much aligned in politics, with the businessman having donated to the Republican Party during the 2024 election.
He even spoke at the Republican National Convention back in July last year, where he said he had the “privilege” of calling Mr Trump a “true and dear friend for many years, in good times and bad times”.
Mr Witkoff also firmly backed Mr Trump’s foreign policy, saying at the inauguration parade: “We are done carrying the financial burden of nations that are unwilling to fund their own progress.
“The days of blank checks are over”.
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During Mr Trump’s first term in office, Mr Witkoff played a more minor role, serving as one of the president’s Great American Economic Revival Industry Groups – which aimed to combat the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
It was over lunch with Mr Trump after his second election win that Mr Witkoff reportedly broached the idea of working on the Middle East – a region he has extensive business ties with, according to NBC.
“That stunned me because I didn’t know he was that interested in the Middle East,” Senator Graham told NBC back in January, while discussing Mr Witkoff’s appointment.
“And Trump looked at me and said: ‘Well, a million people have tried. Let’s pick a nice guy who’s a smart guy’.”
Image: Mr Trump and Mr Witkoff speaking in January. Pic: AP
Since the beginning of the year, Mr Witkoff has proven to be a critical player in negotiations between Israel and Hamas – helping to secure January’s ceasefire deal which has so far seen the release of some of the remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.
One person familiar with the negotiations described Mr Witkoff to NBC as someone who is “very much engaged” with “his heart is in the right place”.
A Middle Eastern diplomat, who spoke with NBC on condition of anonymity at the time, added that the businessman was a tough negotiator but was also able to “empathise” with parents who have lost their children on both sides of the conflict, as he openly spoke about his son Andrew, who died of an OxyContin overdose in 2011 aged 22.
Image: US delegation – featuring Mr Witkoff – meets with Saudi and Russian officials. Pic: Reuters
Growing criticism
Despite praise for Mr Witkoff’s approach to geopolitics, there is also growing criticism against him.
Shortly after his visit to Gaza back in January, he backed Mr Trump’s surprise announcement that the US wanted to “develop” the region and turn it into the “Riviera of the Middle East”.
Mr Trump suggested that Gaza’s two million people would not return to their territory under the plans, which has been widely criticised as amounting to ethnic cleansing.
Image: Mr Witkoff said he had developed a ‘friendship’ with Vladimir Putin
Mr Witkoff also faces questions over his first private meeting with President Putin last month, in which he said he had developed a “friendship”with the Russian leader.
Speaking about his relationship with Mr Putin, he said: “I spent a lot of time with Putin. Talking and developing a friendship and relationship with him…”
He claimed their conversation lasted over three hours.
However, the details of the conversation and what was discussed have never been released, with only translators present at the time.
Donald Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs have come into effect.
But what are they and what do they mean for the UK?
What are tariffs and why does Trump want to impose them?
Tariffs are taxes on goods imported into the US.
The US president wants to impose wide-ranging tariffs on nearest neighbours Mexico and Canada, which he says will help reduce illegal migration and the smuggling of the synthetic opioid fentanyl to the US.
However, most of the 25% duties imposed on the pair to date have been suspended until 2 April.
But two rounds of tariffs on China have been enacted – reflecting trade imbalances and Mr Trump’s battle against fentanyl.
The steel and aluminium tariffs are designed to protect US manufacturing and bolster jobs by making foreign-made products less attractive.
The world’s largest economy relies on imports of steel and aluminium and Mr Trump wants to change that.
How have countries – including the UK – reacted?
The European Union has announced it will impose retaliatory tariffs on the US.
The European Commission said it will impose “countermeasures” affecting €26bn (£21.9bn) of US goods from 1 April after US tariffs on steel and aluminium came into force today.
The bloc’s tariffs will not only impact US steel and aluminium products, but also textiles, home appliances and agricultural goods.
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17:47
Trump100 Day 52: Tesla, tariffs and a step closer to truce
Canada has announced 25% retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth C$29.8bn (£16bn) from tomorrow, its country’s finance minister has said.
The tariffs will include steel products worth C$12.6bn (£6.8bn) and aluminium products worth C$3bn (£1.6bn).
Computers, sports equipment and cast iron goods are also among the other products subject to the new retaliatory tariffs.
Announcing the tariffs, Canada’s foreign minister, Melanie Joly, added that Canada will raise the issues of tariffs with European allies to coordinate a response to put pressure on the US.
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8:00
Trump’s tariffs are ‘disappointing’
While UK industry sees it as a direct attack, the reality is that this country is not a major player any more because energy costs, in particular, mean that UK-produced steel is expensive.
Nevertheless, stainless steel and some high-end products from the UK are in high demand and account for the bulk of the £350m in annual exports to the US.
Sir Keir Starmer has said he is “disappointed” to see Mr Trump impose global tariffs on steel and aluminium, saying the UK will take a “pragmatic approach” and “all options are on the table”.
The business secretary Jonathan Reynolds said on Wednesday morning that while he was disappointed, there would be no immediate retaliation by the UK government as negotiations continue over a wider trade deal with the US.
Why will metal products become more expensive?
It stands to reason that if you slap additional costs on importers in the US, that cost will be passed on down the supply chain to the end user.
If the aluminium to make soft drinks cans costs 25% more, for example, then the hit will have to be felt somewhere.
It could mean that any US product involving steel or aluminium goes up in price, but hikes could be limited if companies decide to take some of the burden in their bottom lines.
It depends on the extent to which costs are passed down through the supply chain as new tariff regimes and any reciprocal tariffs are deployed.
We do know that Mr Trump plans to fully roll out duties, on all goods, against Mexico and Canada from 2 April. But the White House did row back on a threat to double Canada’s tariff on its steel and aluminium – the biggest exporter – to 50%.
But Mr Trump is also widely expected to target almost all imports from the European Union from the beginning of April.
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1:40
Trump adviser tells Sky ‘stop that crap’
Is the UK facing further tariffs?
Mr Trump has not explicitly said that the UK is in his sights.
Data shows no great trade imbalances – the gap between what you import and export from a certain country – and UK figures show no trade deficit with the United States.
UK ministers have previously suggested this could be good news for avoiding new levies.
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2:44
‘The ultimate cost of tariffs will be paid in the US’
Why tariffs could cost you – even if Trump spares UK
Even if no tariffs are put on all UK exports to the US, consumers globally will still be impacted by the wider trade war, particularly in the US.
Economists believe that tariffs will raise costs in the US, sparking a wave of inflation that will keep interest rates higher for longer. The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, is mandated to act to bring inflation down.
More expensive borrowing and costlier goods and services could bring about an economic downturn in the US and have knock-on effects in the UK.
Forecasts from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predict lower UK economic growth due to higher global interest rates.
It has estimated that UK GDP (a measure of everything produced in the economy) could be between 2.5% and 3% lower over five years and 0.7% lower this year.
The Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy thinktank said a 20% across-the-board tariff, impacting the UK, could lead to a £22bn reduction in the UK’s US exports, with the hardest-hit sectors including fishing and mining.
Donald Trump has bought a Tesla in support of the car company he calls “Elon’s baby”.
The White House driveway briefly became a pop-up showroom, with various models on display.
“Will I get in?” he asked the waiting media, before declaring the red Model S “beautiful”.
Image: Mr Musk brought his young son along for the car handover. Pic: Reuters
Tesla stock has lost half its value in three months, its share price tanking to an all-time low this week. The president had urged Americans to buy Tesla in solidarity with Elon Musk, “a great American”.
Federal workers sacked by his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) were not impressed by the president’s purchase.
“I will never buy a Tesla,” Dr Peter Kerndt told me.
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2:12
Sky’s David Blevins spoke to former US government employees who had two particular targets for their frustration.
A former employee at USAID Global Health, Dr Kerndt said cuts made in recent weeks would “cost lives”.
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Amy, who worked in the environmental agency, told me she became “unaccountably angry every time a Tesla passed by” but expressed it “internally”.
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0:42
Protesters target Tesla showroom
Image: Mr Musk’s support of the president and work with DOGE has angered some. Pic: Reuters
The Tesla brand has become the focal point for protest over Musk’s role in cutting government spending.
What began with bumper stickers declaring “I bought this before Elon went crazy” has descended into violence on forecourts at charging stations.
But with the president of the United States now acting as a salesman, there’s still a steady flow of customers.
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At one dealership in Virginia, a woman told me she’d recently been in an accident and safety was her priority.
“I’m a federal employee myself but need to separate the fact that as a vehicle, the car just makes sense,” she said.
There is much debate about who is in the driving seat – the US president or CEO of Tesla? But for now at least, the relationship between them seems as invincible as a Cybertruck.