TV debates have mattered more than ever before in this year’s US presidential election.
President Joe Biden’s pitiful performance on 27 June effectively knocked the incumbent out of the race for the White House.
Then on 10 September Biden’s replacement, vice president Kamala Harris, proved she is a real contender, baiting her opponent Donald Trump into wild statements such as “they’re eating the pets!”.
The Democrats have recovered in the polls since Harris took over the nomination, including in so-called swing states, to the point that she is now narrow favourite to beat Trump, according to some respected analysts.
Others still reckon the Republican Trump will be re-elected. Either way, all agree the contest is on a knife edge with voting already under way in a handful of less populated states, and opening next week in Illinois.
With things so close, the televised debate next Tuesday could even tip the balance.
“All the needle needs to be moved is 0.1% in either direction, and that could be the difference in four or five states,” according to Steven Maviglio, a Democratic strategist.
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Harris and Trump will not be on stage. This latest debate in CBS studios in New York City on 1 October is between their running mates, JD Vance and Tim Walz.
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In most years vice presidential debates are sideshows which have little impact on the voters. Not this year.
The rise of Harris to presidential candidate has shown Americans that VPs are important. Just as Trump had to scramble to find a new running mate following stinging condemnation from Mike Pence, the man who served as his vice president for four years.
Adding to the excitement, the two men who will be facing off this week are also the best phrase-makers in this campaign.
Image: Donald Trump and JD Vance. Pic: AP
Vance wrote bestselling book Hillbilly Elegy, based on his rough upbringing in the Appalachians. He likes to launch sweeping attacks on his foes, including dismissing Democratic women as “childless cat ladies”. Taylor Swift embraced this jibe for herself in her recent post endorsing Harris.
Walz probably owes his place on the ticket to the single word “weird”, which he spent the summer sticking on Trump and Vance to devastating effect in multiple media interviews on behalf of the Democratic campaign.
The confrontation between the two men promises to be spicy.
There is a generation gap between them. Walz is 60. Vance is 20 years younger. Walz likes to present himself as a folksy centrist dad. In The Manual, a signature campaign commercial, Walz sets about fixing his old car, “a ’79 International Harvester Scout”, while likening it to creating an opportunity economy for all.
He is also a veteran democratic politician having served 12 years in Washington in the US House of Representatives before being elected Governor of Minnesota in 2018, the post he still holds.
Vance’s career has been meteoric. Four years in US Marine Corps provided his ladder to university. Then he became a corporate lawyer for investment firms.
Following the success of his book, his backers included the controversial tech titans Peter Thiel, Eric Schmidt and Marc Andreessen. After a lightning campaign in 2022, he is currently a first-term Republican US Senator for Ohio.
Image: JD Vance wrote the bestseller Hillbilly Elegy based on his upbringing. Pic: Reuters
Both men served in the military in non-combat roles. Vance was a journalist in uniform during his four years which included deployment to Iraq. Walz belonged to the Minnesota National Guard for 24 years.
The Harris campaign admitted he “misspoke” when he described assault rifles as “weapons of war that I carried in war”.
The two “VP picks” share archetypal middle-American backgrounds, Nebraska and Minnesota for Walz and Kentucky and Ohio for Vance, which were major factors in why they were chosen as running mates. Harris is from California, Trump from New York City and Florida, all of which are regarded as coastal fleshpots by citizens in “flyover states”.
Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona; the main candidates are all concentrating their campaigning on the battleground states – those most likely to “flip” decisively for one party or another, delivering a majority in the electoral college.
Image: Tim Walz during a campaign event in Minnesota in 2016. Pic: AP
This weekend Walz has set up his debate camp in Michigan. In between mock debates in which the Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg is standing in for Vance, Walz will meet and greet the locals in the bayside resort of Harbor Springs. Conveniently there is a “Festival of the Book” taking place which will allow Walz to strut his stuff as a school teacher.
Vance has called up US representative Tom Emmer from Walz’s home state for his prep. The House majority whip should know where his old foe’s vulnerabilities lie.
This debate will not be relaxed. Unusually for a vice presidential encounter, the protagonists will not be sitting down, they will be standing at lecterns. The last time that happened was 2008 with Sarah Palin and Joe Biden.
As with the other debates this year, the Presidential Debates Commission has not been called upon to organise this one. The two sides agreed their own rules with the broadcaster. This time there will be no studio audience, once again, and two moderators: CBS presenters news anchor Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan of Meet The Press.
As Harris continues to challenge Trump to another debate without success, Vance has countered in advance demanding a second debate with Walz on 18 October. The Democrat is acting modest, protesting of Vance “he’s a Yale Law guy. I’m public school teacher”.
Image: Pics: AP/Reuters
Walz hopes to play the part of a schoolmaster chiding a tearaway pupil. He will do well if he can emulate Lloyd Bentsen’s crushing put down of the younger Dan Quayle in their 1988 vice presidential debate: “I knew Jack Kennedy. You’re no Jack Kennedy.”
Walz has fertile territory to exploit. JD Vance has already had to eat many of his wilder statements. He once likened his boss Trump to “Hitler”. For electoral reasons he has U-turned on his book’s thesis that his fellow poor whites were to blame for their own fecklessness.
Republican strategists hope that Vance will counter Walz’s rebukes over sexism and abortion by sticking to mainstream issues such as inflation and immigration.
Vance can boast a nuanced personal record on some social issues including healthcare. But he is also pugnacious and may be unable to resist going after Walz aggressively for what Republicans regard as his left-wing voting record.
Trump’s groundless claims that Harris is “a communist” seem to be impressing Hispanic voters.
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Crowd chants ‘we’re not eating cats’
Walz has more to lose and Vance has more to prove in the debate. Harris has embraced her choice of Walz, notably by appearing with him for her first major TV interview. Trump barely mentions Vance at his rallies. In opinion polls Walz has net approval ratings of 10%, Vance is at around minus 35%.
Debates are proving their value in this election year. Americans are paying increasing attention to them. 51.3 million tuned in to Biden/Trump earlier in the summer, 67.1 million watched Harris/Trump earlier this month.
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An outcome on Tuesday night as vivid as in the two previous debates this year could well be a defining moment for the next presidency.
On the other hand, both veteran Democrats and Republicans will also remember that while Lloyd Bentsen smashed the debate, George H W Bush and Dan Quayle won the election.
Chaos broke out at Utah Valley University when prominent right-wing influencer Charlie Kirk was shot dead in front of thousands of people.
Mr Kirk, 31, was speaking to students about mass shootings on Wednesday when he was shot in the neck, leading students to flee and a manhunt for the killer beginning.
Many questions remain, with differing accounts and multiple videos across social media.
The Sky News Data and Forensic team has tracked and mapped the events before, during and after the killing to find out as much as possible about what happened.
When and where did the shooting happen?
Mr Kirk was speaking to around 3,000 people from under a small white tent on the campus when he was shot.
The event was part of his “prove me wrong” series, which saw the right-wing influencer visit campuses across the country and debate contentious subjects like gun control, free speech, LGBTQ+ rights and abortion rights with left-wing students.
The event began at roughly 12pm local time.
Mr Kirk was taking questions about mass shootings and gun violence when, at roughly 12.20pm, he was shot.
It was a single shot that struck him in the neck, a university spokesman confirmed.
Image: Charlie Kirk at a university event before he was fatally shot. Pic: Reuters/Trent Nelson/The Salt Lake Tribune
Madison Lattin, who was standing only a few dozen feet to the left of Mr Kirk when he was shot, said: “Blood is falling and dripping down, and you’re just like so scared, not just for him but your own safety.”
Footage from the scene showed Mr Kirk being carried away within seconds of the shooting.
Where did the shot come from?
In a statement on Thursday, the FBI said they had tracked the gunman’s movements onto the campus, “through the stairwells, up to the roof, across the roof, to a shooting location”.
They said they first tracked his movements from 11.52am, when they said he arrived on campus.
Videos from the event show the gunman was on top of the Losee Centre building – just over 130m away from where Kirk was speaking, according to an online measuring tool.
Two videos show a figure on the roof before and immediately after a shot is fired.
The first video shows what appears to be someone lying down. The person filming says “he just ran from over there” – pointing in the direction of a stairwell coming up the roof.
The second video is filmed in the moments after the shot is fired. You see a silhouette that appears to stand and move away from the roof’s edge.
Using videos taken near the stage, Sky News was able to confirm that this position has a direct line of sight to where Kirk was sitting at the time of the attack.
Audio analyst Rob Maher has estimated the distance the shot travelled, reaching a similar conclusion to Sky News’ analysis.
“The time gap between the crack sound and the pop sound in the recordings close to the podium is about 240 milliseconds,” he told Sky News.
“Since the exact trajectory of the bullet and the bullet’s speed is not known, I have to make an assumption that the bullet speed was likely about 800 meters per second. With that assumption, the time gap indicates that the firearm was likely about 140m from the podium”.
Image: Pic: Rob Maher
What weapon was used?
The weapon suspected of being used in the shooting has been found, according to FBI agent Robert Bohls, who told a news briefing in Orem, Utah, that it was a “high-powered, bolt-action rifle”.
“That rifle was recovered in a wooded area where the shooter had fled,” he said. “The FBI laboratory will be analysing this weapon.”
Mr Bohls added that they also found an “impression of a palm print and forearm imprints for analysis”; however the shooter remained at large.
Firearms consultant David Dyson told Sky News that, based on the range from where they are believed to have fired, the gunman would likely need to be a somewhat skilled target shooter.
But he suggested that while the shot may be difficult for anyone without experience, it’s “not a great range” for someone with practice.
“There’s target disciplines, for instance, [at] 800m. So you can shoot quite accurately at far greater distances than 150 yards,” he said.
“If we’re in that sort of ballpark, then you’re not looking at somebody with phenomenal skill,” he added.
What do we know about the shooter?
A manhunt is under way for the killer, which began on the university campus but has now extended beyond.
Police radio recordings show the first mention of the incident at 12.26pm, about six minutes after the shooting occurred.
Officers were on the scene within minutes, with one officer describing the suspect at 12.35pm as “wearing jeans, black shirt, black mask, long rifle”.
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Audio recording of police response after Charlie Kirk shot
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Police audio after the incident
By 12.58pm, 32 mins after the shooting, armed officers could be seen checking the perimeter of the Losee building.
In an update on Thursday, authorities offered a few more details about the shooter, who they referred to as a male.
Beau Mason, commissioner of the Department of Public Safety, said he “appears to be of college age” and that he “blended in well with a college institution”.
The authorities added they were “doing everything we can to find him” but that “we’re not sure how far he has gone yet”.
Image: The person of interest the FBI is looking for. Pics: FBI Salt Lake City/X
The FBI later released images of a “person of interest” in the shooting.
Two people were arrested after the shooting, but neither was determined to have any connection with the shooting and were later released.
What sort of security was on site?
Witnesses have spoken about a supposed lack of security checkpoints, with people being able to walk into the event with backpacks without being searched.
“Anybody in the world could park anywhere around the university and walk right in,” one witness told Sky News affiliate NBC news.
The UVU website states that “generally, anyone is allowed to enter areas that are open to the public” but non-public areas are restricted by “access cards, locked doors, or monitored entryways”.
A 2012 drone video shows the area around the shooter’s location on the 4th floor. A metal railing encloses an accessible balcony area which means that to reach the roof where the shot was taken, they could have climbed or jumped over the railing.
Image: Pic: Eric Fowkes
Extra security measures were put in place for the event. UVU Police Chief Jeff Long said six police officers were there as well as plainclothes police officers in the crowd.
Chief Long confirmed that Mr Kirk also had a security team, which travels with him, and said he coordinated with Mr Kirk’s lead security officer.
Analysis of the videos from the event show at least four men, who appear to be Kirk’s security team, surrounding the stage.
“We train for these things, and you think you have these things covered,” Chief Jeff Long said in his statement last night.
“You try to get your bases covered and unfortunately today we didn’t”.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Charlie Kirk – the leading youth right-wing influencer is assassinated while giving a talk at a university. The assassin is still on the run. James Matthews is in Utah at the scene of the crime.
And Lord Mandelson, the ambassador to the US, is given his marching orders. Less than 24 hours after the PM backed him, he sacked him. What next?
Police are investigating multiple leads in the deadly shooting of Trump ally Charlie Kirk in Utah after the FBI released two photos of a “person of interest”.
The images show a person wearing a black baseball cap, black long-sleeved shirt, black trousers and sunglasses.
FBI officials in the Salt Lake City office also announced a $100,000 (£73,000) reward in exchange for information leading to the identification of the attacker.
Image: The FBI released images of a ‘person of interest’ in the Charlie Kirk shooting
Earlier, authorities said the sniper was thought to have jumped off a roof and fled into a neighbourhood after firing one shot.
They also said the suspect was a male who “appears to be of college age” and blended in on the Utah Valley University campus in Orem where Mr Kirk was killed.
Mr Kirk, a 31-year-old right-wing influencer, was fatally shot in the neck on Wednesday afternoon while speaking to university students at an event. He died in hospital after being shot.
Image: Charlie Kirk hands out hats before speaking at Utah Valley University where he was later fatally shot. Pic: AP
The rifle suspected of being used in the shooting has been found.
In a briefing on Thursday, FBI agent Robert Bohls said: “I can tell you that we have recovered what we believe is the weapon that was used in yesterday’s shooting… is a high-powered bolt action rifle.
“That rifle was recovered in a wooded area where the shooter had fled. The FBI laboratory will be analysing this weapon.”
Investigators have collected a footwear impression, a palm print, and forearm imprints for analysis.
The father-of-two was the chief executive and co-founder of Turning Point USA, a prominent organisation that engages conservative youth on school campuses.
He had millions of followers across social media.
Mr Kirk and Turning Point USA played a key role in driving youth support for Mr Trump in last November’s presidential election. His events at college campuses nationwide typically drew large crowds.
Many people listened both in person and online to Mr Kirk, as he advocated for conservatism among younger generations and became a leading voice in the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement.
President Donald Trump paid tribute to Mr Kirk while on stage at a 9/11 memorial event in Virginia, saying he would be awarding him the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
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“Before we begin, let me express the horror and grief so many Americans at the heinous assassination of Charlie Kirk have felt,” Mr Trump said.
“Charlie was a giant of his generation, a champion of liberty and an inspiration to millions and millions of people. Our prayers are with his wonderful wife, Erika, and his beautiful children.”
He later added the FBI was making “big progress” in finding the shooter and he has “an indication” of the motive, but declined to expand.
“He’s an animal, total animal, hopefully they’ll have him and they’ll get him.”