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TV debates have mattered more than ever before in this year’s US presidential election.

President Joe Biden’s pitiful performance on 27 June effectively knocked the incumbent out of the race for the White House.

Then on 10 September Biden’s replacement, vice president Kamala Harris, proved she is a real contender, baiting her opponent Donald Trump into wild statements such as “they’re eating the pets!”.

The Democrats have recovered in the polls since Harris took over the nomination, including in so-called swing states, to the point that she is now narrow favourite to beat Trump, according to some respected analysts.

Others still reckon the Republican Trump will be re-elected. Either way, all agree the contest is on a knife edge with voting already under way in a handful of less populated states, and opening next week in Illinois.

With things so close, the televised debate next Tuesday could even tip the balance.

“All the needle needs to be moved is 0.1% in either direction, and that could be the difference in four or five states,” according to Steven Maviglio, a Democratic strategist.

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Harris and Trump will not be on stage. This latest debate in CBS studios in New York City on 1 October is between their running mates, JD Vance and Tim Walz.

In most years vice presidential debates are sideshows which have little impact on the voters. Not this year.

The rise of Harris to presidential candidate has shown Americans that VPs are important. Just as Trump had to scramble to find a new running mate following stinging condemnation from Mike Pence, the man who served as his vice president for four years.

Adding to the excitement, the two men who will be facing off this week are also the best phrase-makers in this campaign.

Donald Trump and JD Vance. Pic: AP
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Donald Trump and JD Vance. Pic: AP

Vance wrote bestselling book Hillbilly Elegy, based on his rough upbringing in the Appalachians. He likes to launch sweeping attacks on his foes, including dismissing Democratic women as “childless cat ladies”. Taylor Swift embraced this jibe for herself in her recent post endorsing Harris.

Walz probably owes his place on the ticket to the single word “weird”, which he spent the summer sticking on Trump and Vance to devastating effect in multiple media interviews on behalf of the Democratic campaign.

The confrontation between the two men promises to be spicy.

There is a generation gap between them. Walz is 60. Vance is 20 years younger. Walz likes to present himself as a folksy centrist dad. In The Manual, a signature campaign commercial, Walz sets about fixing his old car, “a ’79 International Harvester Scout”, while likening it to creating an opportunity economy for all.

He is also a veteran democratic politician having served 12 years in Washington in the US House of Representatives before being elected Governor of Minnesota in 2018, the post he still holds.

Vance’s career has been meteoric. Four years in US Marine Corps provided his ladder to university. Then he became a corporate lawyer for investment firms.

Following the success of his book, his backers included the controversial tech titans Peter Thiel, Eric Schmidt and Marc Andreessen. After a lightning campaign in 2022, he is currently a first-term Republican US Senator for Ohio.

Donald Trump's running mate JD Vance
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JD Vance wrote the bestseller Hillbilly Elegy based on his upbringing. Pic: Reuters

Read more:
Who is JD Vance?
Analysis: Why Harris picked Walz

Both men served in the military in non-combat roles. Vance was a journalist in uniform during his four years which included deployment to Iraq. Walz belonged to the Minnesota National Guard for 24 years.

The Harris campaign admitted he “misspoke” when he described assault rifles as “weapons of war that I carried in war”.

The two “VP picks” share archetypal middle-American backgrounds, Nebraska and Minnesota for Walz and Kentucky and Ohio for Vance, which were major factors in why they were chosen as running mates. Harris is from California, Trump from New York City and Florida, all of which are regarded as coastal fleshpots by citizens in “flyover states”.

Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona; the main candidates are all concentrating their campaigning on the battleground states – those most likely to “flip” decisively for one party or another, delivering a majority in the electoral college.

Tim Walz during a campaign event in Minnesota in 2016. Pic: AP
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Tim Walz during a campaign event in Minnesota in 2016. Pic: AP

This weekend Walz has set up his debate camp in Michigan. In between mock debates in which the Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg is standing in for Vance, Walz will meet and greet the locals in the bayside resort of Harbor Springs. Conveniently there is a “Festival of the Book” taking place which will allow Walz to strut his stuff as a school teacher.

Vance has called up US representative Tom Emmer from Walz’s home state for his prep. The House majority whip should know where his old foe’s vulnerabilities lie.

This debate will not be relaxed. Unusually for a vice presidential encounter, the protagonists will not be sitting down, they will be standing at lecterns. The last time that happened was 2008 with Sarah Palin and Joe Biden.

As with the other debates this year, the Presidential Debates Commission has not been called upon to organise this one. The two sides agreed their own rules with the broadcaster. This time there will be no studio audience, once again, and two moderators: CBS presenters news anchor Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan of Meet The Press.

As Harris continues to challenge Trump to another debate without success, Vance has countered in advance demanding a second debate with Walz on 18 October. The Democrat is acting modest, protesting of Vance “he’s a Yale Law guy. I’m public school teacher”.

Pics: AP/Reuters
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Pics: AP/Reuters

Walz hopes to play the part of a schoolmaster chiding a tearaway pupil. He will do well if he can emulate Lloyd Bentsen’s crushing put down of the younger Dan Quayle in their 1988 vice presidential debate: “I knew Jack Kennedy. You’re no Jack Kennedy.”

Walz has fertile territory to exploit. JD Vance has already had to eat many of his wilder statements. He once likened his boss Trump to “Hitler”. For electoral reasons he has U-turned on his book’s thesis that his fellow poor whites were to blame for their own fecklessness.

Republican strategists hope that Vance will counter Walz’s rebukes over sexism and abortion by sticking to mainstream issues such as inflation and immigration.

Vance can boast a nuanced personal record on some social issues including healthcare. But he is also pugnacious and may be unable to resist going after Walz aggressively for what Republicans regard as his left-wing voting record.

Trump’s groundless claims that Harris is “a communist” seem to be impressing Hispanic voters.

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Crowd chants ‘we’re not eating cats’

Walz has more to lose and Vance has more to prove in the debate. Harris has embraced her choice of Walz, notably by appearing with him for her first major TV interview. Trump barely mentions Vance at his rallies. In opinion polls Walz has net approval ratings of 10%, Vance is at around minus 35%.

Debates are proving their value in this election year. Americans are paying increasing attention to them. 51.3 million tuned in to Biden/Trump earlier in the summer, 67.1 million watched Harris/Trump earlier this month.

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An outcome on Tuesday night as vivid as in the two previous debates this year could well be a defining moment for the next presidency.

On the other hand, both veteran Democrats and Republicans will also remember that while Lloyd Bentsen smashed the debate, George H W Bush and Dan Quayle won the election.

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Vladimir Putin demands key regions of Ukraine in ‘exchange for peace’

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Vladimir Putin demands key regions of Ukraine in 'exchange for peace'

Vladimir Putin made demands to take control of key regions of Ukraine during his talks with Donald Trump, it has been widely reported, as a condition for ending the war.

During their summit in Alaska, the Russian leader is said to have told the US president he wants the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions – and would give up other Ukrainian territories held by his troops in exchange.

The plans were reported by several news outlets, citing sources close to the matter, as Mr Trump scheduled a further meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington DC for Monday. He has said this could potentially pave the way for a three-way meeting with Mr Putin.

Mr Trump reportedly backs the plans, according to some outlets – but Mr Zelenskyy has previously ruled out formally handing any territory to Moscow. Russia already controls a fifth of Ukraine, including about three-quarters of Donetsk province, which it first entered in 2014.

US-Russia talks on Ukraine – latest updates

Pic: AP/ Julia Demaree Nikhinson
Image:
Pic: AP/ Julia Demaree Nikhinson

Details of the plans emerged after little was revealed during the high-profile summit between the US and Russian leaders on Friday.

Despite threats by the US president beforehand, of sanctions for Russia should there be no agreement on a ceasefire, a short news briefing after the talks ended with no mention of a suspension of fighting, no announced agreement on how to end the war, and little clarity about the next steps.

On Saturday, Mr Trump appeared to change his stance on what he hopes to achieve in Ukraine, indicating he wants a permanent peace settlement rather than a ceasefire.

“It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up,” he said in a post on his social network site, Truth Social.

Pic: Sergei Bobylev/ Sputnik/ Kremlin pool via AP
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Pic: Sergei Bobylev/ Sputnik/ Kremlin pool via AP

Trump: ‘Russia is a big power – they’re not’

In an interview with Fox News following the summit, Mr Trump signalled he and Putin had discussed land transfers and security guarantees for Ukraine, and had “largely agreed”. He said Ukraine has to made a deal, as “Russia is a very big power, and they’re not”.

Monday’s meeting at the White House will be the Ukrainian president’s second this year. His last descended into a fiery spat with Mr Trump and his vice president JD Vance, which saw him leave early.

After the fresh meeting was announced, Mr Zelenskyy in a post on X that he was grateful for the invitation.

Read more:
Key takeaways from Sky correspondents
Body language expert unpacks the summit

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Trump and Putin’s body language analysed

“It is important that everyone agrees there needs to be a conversation at the level of leaders to clarify all the details and determine which steps are necessary and will work,” he said.

However, he said Russia had rebuffed “numerous calls for a ceasefire and has not yet determined when it will stop the killing”, which “complicates the situation”.

Mr Zelenskyy continued: “If they lack the will to carry out a simple order to stop the strikes, it may take a lot of effort to get Russia to have the will to implement far greater – peaceful coexistence with its neighbours for decades.

“But together we are working for peace and security. Stopping the killing is a key element of stopping the war.”

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Trump and Putin in Alaska – The Debrief

Putin releases statement on summit

In a statement on the summit, Mr Putin described the talks as “timely and quite useful” – but said the “removal” of what he calls the “root causes” of the crisis “must underlie the settlement”.

He continued: “We definitely respect the US administration’s position which wants the hostilities to stop as soon as possible. So do we, and we would like to move forward with settling all issues by peaceful means.

“The conversation was very frank and substantive, which, in my view, moves us closer towards making necessary decisions.”

Keir Starmer welcomed Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Downing Street earlier this week. Pic: AP/ Kirsty Wigglesworth
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Keir Starmer welcomed Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Downing Street earlier this week. Pic: AP/ Kirsty Wigglesworth

European leaders who make up the “coalition of the willing” are set to hold a conference call today ahead of the crunch talks between Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will host the video conference.

Read more:
Analysis: Putin was pulling the strings
Mapping the land Ukraine could be told to give up

In a statement on Saturday,Sir Keir said Mr Trump’s efforts had “brought us closer than ever before to ending Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine” and that his leadership “in pursuit of an end to the killing should be commended”.

He said he supported the next phase of talks, but added: “In the meantime, until (Putin) stops his barbaric assault, we will keep tightening the screws on his war machine with even more sanctions.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military has reported an advance of up to 2km on the Sumy front in the country’s northeast.

“Zones of continuous enemy fire damage are being maintained,” the Ukrainian General Staff said on Telegram. “Ukrainian troops are repelling Russian forces”.

In the early hours of Sunday, a regional governor in Russia said a railway employee had been injured and a power line damaged by a Ukrainian drone attack.

The incident happened in the Voronezh region, Alexander Gusev said on Telegram.

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Trump-Putin summit: No deal reached to end war in Ukraine

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Trump-Putin summit: No deal reached to end war in Ukraine

No deal has been reached to end the war in Ukraine – but Donald Trump has said there are “many points” he and Vladimir Putin agreed on during their highly anticipated summit.

Following the meeting in Alaska, which lasted more than two-and-a-half hours, the two leaders gave a short media conference giving little detail about what had been discussed, and without taking questions.

Mr Trump described the meeting as “very productive” and said there were “many points that we agreed on… I would say a couple of big ones”.

Trump-Putin summit – latest updates

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Key moments from Trump-Putin news conference

But there are a few left, he added. “Some are not that significant. One is probably the most significant, but we have a very good chance of getting there…

“We haven’t quite got there, we’ve made some headway. There’s no deal until there’s a deal.”

He has since suggested that negotiations should proceed directly to a peace deal, rather than purely a ceasefire agreement.

Mr Putin described the negotiations as “thorough and constructive” and said Russia was “seriously interested in putting an end” to the war in Ukraine. He also warned Europe not to “torpedo nascent progress”.

Following the summit, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he plans to travel to Washington DC on Monday following a “long and substantive” conversation” with Mr Trump.

In a joint statement, European leaders including Sir Keir Starmer said they “welcomed President Trump’s efforts to stop the killing in Ukraine” and said the so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ is “ready to play an active role”.

Donald Trump greets Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. Pic: AP/ Julia Demaree Nikhinson
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Donald Trump greets Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. Pic: AP/ Julia Demaree Nikhinson

After much build-up to the summit – with the US president threatening “severe” consequences for Russia should it not go well – it was ultimately not clear whether the talks had produced meaningful steps towards a ceasefire in what has been the deadliest conflict in Europe in 80 years.

Mr Trump said he intended to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders, who were excluded from the discussions, to brief them.

Despite not reaching any major breakthrough, the US leader ended his remarks with a thank you, and said he would probably see Mr Putin again “very soon”.

When the Russian president suggested that “next time” would be Moscow, he responded by saying he might face criticism, but “I could see it possibly happening”.

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Trump applauds Putin and shares ride in ‘The Beast’

The red carpet treatment

The news conference came after a grand arrival at the Elmendorf-Richardson military base in Anchorage, where the US president stepped down from Air Force One and later greeted his Russian counterpart with a handshake and smiles on a red carpet.

Mr Putin even travelled alongside Mr Trump in the presidential limousine, nicknamed “The Beast”.

It was the kind of reception typically reserved for close US allies, belying the bloodshed and the suffering in the war.

Before the talks, the two presidents ignored frantically-shouted questions from journalists – and Mr Putin appeared to frown when asked by one reporter if he would stop “killing civilians” in Ukraine, putting his hand to his ear as though to indicate he could not hear.

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‘Fury, anger and disgust’ in Ukraine

Our US correspondent Martha Kelner, on the ground in Alaska, said he was shouting “let’s go” – apparently in reference to getting the reporters out of the room.

Read more:
The moment Vladimir Putin has craved
What we expected from summit – and what actually happened

Trump-Putin summit in pictures
Mapping the land Ukraine could be told to give up

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What we learned from Trump-Putin news conference

A ’10/10′ meeting

During his first day back in the White House in January, Mr Trump had pledged confidently to bring about an end to the war in Ukraine.

But seven months later, after infamously berating Mr Zelenskyy during a meeting at the Oval Office in February, and then stanching the flow of some US military assistance to Kyiv, he still does not appear to have brought a pause to the conflict.

In an interview with Fox News before leaving Alaska, Mr Trump described the meeting with Mr Putin as “warm” and gave it a “10/10”, but declined to give details about what they discussed.

He also insisted that the onus going forward could be on Mr Zelenskyy “to get it done”, but said there would also be some involvement from European nations.

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Trump’s body language was ‘disappointed’

What happens next?

Mr Trump has spoken with Mr Zelenskyy, Sir Keir Starmer and European leaders about the talks.

Following the call, Mr Zelenskyy reiterated the importance of involving Europe: “It is important that Europeans are involved at every stage to ensure reliable security guarantees together with America,” he said.

“We also discussed positive signals from the American side regarding participation in guaranteeing Ukraine’s security.”

In a joint statement, European leaders including Sir Keir said: “We are clear that Ukraine must have ironclad security guarantees to effectively defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

“We welcome President Trump’s statement that the US is prepared to give security guarantees.

“The coalition of the willing is ready to play an active role. No limitations should be placed on Ukraine’s armed forces or on its cooperation with third countries. Russia cannot have a veto against Ukraine’s pathway to EU and NATO.”

Despite the US president’s efforts to bring about a ceasefire, Russian attacks on Ukraine have only intensified in the past few months.

On 9 July, Russia carried out its largest aerial attack on Ukraine since the start of the war, launching more than 740 drones and missiles.

Furthermore, Mr Zelenskyy has said Russia is preparing for new offensives.

Ahead of the summit, one of the key commanders of Ukraine’s drone forces told Sky News in a rare interview that there would be no let-up in its own long-range drone attacks on Russia until Moscow agrees to peace.

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Putin wriggles off the hook yet again, Trump is the clear loser, and Ukrainians are furious

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Putin wriggles off the hook yet again, Trump is the clear loser, and Ukrainians are furious

The clear winner in Alaska is Vladimir Putin. A day in a global spotlight, equal billing with a true superpower leader, a red carpet welcome and most importantly for him no need to agree to a ceasefire.

He can fly home knowing Donald Trump has handed him a propaganda bonanza. Russian media which he controls completely will crow for weeks to come, milking the pictures like that of Putin laughing in the back of Cadillac One.

Crucially, Putin has wriggled off the hook yet again. He had until two weeks ago faced the threat of imminent severe sanctions that could have brought his economy to its knees by targeting his vital oil industry.

Donald Trump is one clear loser. He appears to have received nothing in return for bending over backwards to welcome the Russian leader. He said he would not be happy if Russia didn’t agree to a ceasefire but has failed to secure one.

The US president will not see it that way. He craves attention and big TV moments and yesterday delivered on that front.

The two leaders spoke for around two-and-a-half hours. Pic: AP
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The two leaders spoke for around two-and-a-half hours. Pic: AP

Ukrainians who were not invited are losers too. It means the shelling and drone attacks on their homes goes on. Many more of them will die.

Social media here in Ukraine lit up in fury as the extraordinary pictures from Alaska came in.

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Trump-Putin meeting: Key takeaways

“He occupies territories… destroys entire cities, kills, rapes, robs, kidnaps, tortures, and as a result receives a red carpet welcome,” was one comment typical of many.

This morning a prominent Ukrainian artist Nikita Titov posted a striking image that sums up the worldview many believe is emerging from Alaska. The communist hammer and sickle but with Donald Trump’s trademark red tie replacing the hammer.

If Trump was sincere in wanting the killing to end he could resort to far more effective means than inconclusive summitry. Secondary sanctions on Russia’s oil industry and those who trade in it would be something for Putin to think about.

Read more:
Mapping the land Ukraine could be told to give up
What we expected from the summit – and what happened

Ukrainians are hugely frustrated Trump seems strangely reluctant to impose them. To them, this summit was an elaborate ruse to avoid doing so again.

In both substance and outcome Alaska sends a clear message to Ukraine and its European allies. America may carry on supporting their defence but now by selling not supplying weapons. It may or may not carry on providing absolutely essential military intelligence. But otherwise they are increasingly on their own.

That penny has been dropping for months in European capitals. Alaska has only rammed the point further home. The challenge for Europe is to ramp up its ability to support Ukraine quickly enough to fill the growing vacuum left by an American president whose sympathies increasingly lie elsewhere.

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