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Iran has pledged a “decisive reaction” to Israel’s onslaught against Iranian allies across the region, but Tehran seems to have badly miscalculated the risk its arch foe is willing to take.

In the face of such a multi-pronged assault, the regime might even be wondering whether they, or rather their nuclear sites – seen as by far the biggest threat to Israel – could be next.

Israel-Hezbollah latest: Hezbollah warns Israel ‘we are ready’ for ground invasion

Unspoken rules that have in the past deterred a direct Israeli attack on Iran have been ripped up following the killing of the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the dismantling of much of Hamas in Gaza, and large airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.

Israeli troops are now preparing for a possible ground incursion into Lebanon as they seek to inflict lasting damage on Hezbollah, the region’s largest paramilitary force and Iran’s most prized insurance policy.

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Israeli military at Lebanese border

The speed and intensity of events make it impossible to predict what will happen next. A priority for Iran though will be to try to restore deterrence – yet it might already be too late.

Israel’s actions appear designed to achieve a fundamental shift in the balance of power in the region, where Tehran’s “axis of resistance” – armed groups, funded, equipped and trained by Iran and aligned with its interests – has been a hugely powerful force.

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The Iranian president on Sunday night denounced the Israeli attacks against Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis and vowed to respond – though without indicating how.

Masoud Pezeshkian just said: “We cannot accept such actions and they will not be left unanswered.”

In considering its next move, Tehran will have drawn lessons from its response in April to an Israeli strike against an Iranian consulate building in the Syrian capital, Damascus.

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From April: Iran blames Israel for deadly strike

At that time, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones towards Israel – at the higher end of expectations – but the majority of the barrage was defeated by Israeli air defences supported by the US, UK and other allies.

Israel was encouraged to “take the win” and not strike back too hard – advice that it heeded in the immediate aftermath and a descent into uncontrolled confrontation was avoided.

Yet three months later, the Israelis escalated tensions once again by killing Ismail Haniyeh, a top Hamas leader, while he was in Tehran.

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From July: Hamas leader killed in Tehran

That provocation triggered new expectations of retaliation which have yet to materialise – an Iranian silence that may well have emboldened Israel to cross further red lines, right up to the taking out of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, last Friday.

Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said Iran has a reputation for calibrating its operations to avoid escalation to direct war with Israel.

“But it seems to have badly miscalculated how much risk the Israelis – and Netanyahu in particular – are willing to take after 7 October, given the shock that produced in Israel and the level of threat it created,” he said.

“The so-called axis of resistance is meant to be a deterrent to attacks on Iran. But Iran probably won’t risk direct war on behalf of its partners.

“So while a ground incursion into Lebanon would be difficult, the Israelis might pay the cost if they can deal a generational blow to Hezbollah. And many will argue, given the loss of its leadership and its communications problems, if not now, then when?”

If such a blow is possible, might Israel then have the capacity, capability and confidence to turn its sights directly on its biggest enemy, Iran?

Read more:
Is wider war in the Middle East inevitable?

Airstrike hits apartment in Beirut


Pic: Reuters
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Local officials in Lebanon say more than 1,000 people have been killed in Israeli bombings.
Pic: Reuters

Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, has relentlessly warned of the danger posed to his country by Tehran, which he believes is intent on acquiring nuclear weapons – a move that Israel would not tolerate.

The Iranian government denies such a plan, saying its nuclear facilities are purely for civilian use.

In the past, calculations about Iran by Israel and its closest ally, the US, were based on an understanding that a direct attack would risk Hezbollah – in Iran’s defence – unleashing deadly volleys of missiles in Israel’s direction.

That threat still exists, but the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and his top lieutenants in Israeli airstrikes as well as the destruction of weapons sites across Lebanon have dealt punishing blows to the group, which will impact its ability to fight back at least in the short term.

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Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of course has a potent arsenal of missiles of its own, bolstered with new technology and capabilities from its partner Russia.

It means any direct confrontation would be catastrophic for the region – something that Iran and Israel will both be all too aware of as they decide responses and counter-responses.

The United States appears increasingly worried about what comes next if calls for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah as well as Israel and Hamas continue to go unheeded.

The Middle East has been on the brink of all-out war for almost a year but this is by far the most dangerous moment.

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Israeli soldier describes arbitrary killing of civilians in Gaza

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Israeli soldier describes arbitrary killing of civilians in Gaza

An Israeli reservist who served three tours of duty in Gaza has told Sky News in a rare on-camera interview that his unit was often ordered to shoot anyone entering areas soldiers defined as no-go zones, regardless of whether they posed a threat, a practice he says left civilians dead where they fell.

“We have a territory that we are in, and the commands are: everyone that comes inside needs to die,” he said. “If they’re inside, they’re dangerous you need to kill them. No matter who it is,” he said.

Speaking anonymously, the soldier said troops killed civilians arbitrarily. He described the rules of engagement as unclear, with orders to open fire shifting constantly depending on the commander.

The soldier is a reservist in the Israel Defence Force’s 252nd Division. He was posted twice to the Netzarim corridor; a narrow strip of land cut through central Gaza early in the war, running from the sea to the Israeli border. It was designed to split the territory and allow Israeli forces to have greater control from inside the Strip.

He said that when his unit was stationed on the edge of a civilian area, soldiers slept in a house belonging to displaced Palestinians and marked an invisible boundary around it that defined a no-go zone for Gazans.

“In one of the houses that we had been in, we had the big territory. This was the closest to the citizens’ neighbourhood, with people inside. And there’s an imaginary line that they tell us all the Gazan people know it, and that they know they are not allowed to pass it,” he said. “But how can they know?”

People who crossed into this area were most often shot, he said.

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“It was like pretty much everyone that comes into the territory, and it might be like a teenager riding his bicycle,” he said.

IDF whistleblower
Image:
The soldier is seen in Gaza. Photos are courtesy of the interviewed soldier, who requested anonymity

The soldier described a prevailing belief among troops that all Gazans were terrorists, even when they were clearly unarmed civilians. This perception, he said, was not challenged and was often endorsed by commanders.

“They don’t really talk to you about civilians that may come to your place. Like I was in the Netzarim road, and they say if someone comes here, it means that he knows he shouldn’t be there, and if he still comes, it means he’s a terrorist,” he said.

“This is what they tell you. But I don’t really think it’s true. It’s just poor people, civilians that don’t really have too many choices.”

He said the rules of engagement shifted constantly, leaving civilians at the mercy of commanders’ discretion.

“They might be shot, they might be captured,” he said. “It really depends on the day, the mood of the commander.”

He recalled an occasion of a man crossing the boundary and being shot. When another man came later to the body, he too was shot.

Later the soldiers decided to capture people who approached the body. Hours after that, the order changed again, shoot everyone on sight who crosses the “imaginary line”.

IDF whistleblower
Image:
The Israeli soldier during his on-camera interview with Sky News

At another time, his unit was positioned near the Shujaiya area of Gaza City. He described Palestinians scavenging scrap metal and solar panels from a building inside the so-called no-go zone.

“For sure, no terrorists there,” he said. “Every commander can choose for himself what he does. So it’s kind of like the Wild West. So, some commanders can really decide to do war crimes and bad things and don’t face the consequences of that.”

The soldier said many of his comrades believed there were no innocents in Gaza, citing the Hamas-led 7 October attack that killed around 1,200 people and saw 250 taken hostage. Dozens of hostages have since been freed or rescued by Israeli forces, while about 50 remain in captivity, including roughly 30 Israel believes are dead.

He recalled soldiers openly discussing the killings.

“They’d say: ‘Yeah, but these people didn’t do anything to prevent October 7, and they probably had fun when this was happening to us. So they deserve to die’.”

He added: “People don’t feel mercy for them.”

“I think a lot of them really felt like they were doing something good,” he said. “I think the core of it, that in their mind, these people aren’t innocent.”

IDF whistleblower
Image:
The IDF soldier during one of his three tours in Gaza

In Israel, it is rare for soldiers to publicly criticise the IDF, which is seen as a unifying institution and a rite of passage for Jewish Israelis. Military service shapes identity and social standing, and those who speak out risk being ostracised.

The soldier said he did not want to be identified because he feared being branded a traitor or shunned by his community.

Still, he felt compelled to speak out.

“I kind of feel like I took part in something bad, and I need to counter it with something good that I do, by speaking out, because I am very troubled about what I took and still am taking part of, as a soldier and citizen in this country,” he said

“I think the war is… a very bad thing that is happening to us, and to the Palestinians, and I think it needs to be over,” he said.

He added: “I think in Israeli community, it’s very hard to criticise itself and its army. A lot of people don’t understand what they are agreeing to. They think the war needs to happen, and we need to bring the hostages back, but they don’t understand the consequences.

“I think a lot of people, if they knew exactly what’s happening, it wouldn’t go down very well for them, and they wouldn’t agree with it. I hope that by speaking of it, it can change how things are being done.”

IDF whistleblower
Image:
The soldier is a reservist in the Israel Defence Force’s 252nd Division

We put the allegations of arbitrary killings in the Netzarim corridor to the Israeli military.

In a statement, the IDF said it “operates in strict accordance with its rules of engagement and international law, taking feasible precautions to mitigate civilian harm”.

“The IDF operates against military targets and objectives, and does not target civilians or civilian objects,” the statement continued.

The Israeli military added that “reports and complaints regarding the violation of international law by the IDF are transferred to the relevant authorities responsible for examining exceptional incidents that occurred during the war”.

On the specific allegations raised by the soldier interviewed, the IDF said it could not address them directly because “the necessary details were not provided to address the case mentioned in the query. Should additional information be received, it will be thoroughly examined.”

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The statement also mentioned the steps the military says it takes to minimise civilian casualties, including issuing evacuation warnings and advising people to temporarily leave areas of intense fighting.

“The areas designated for evacuation in the Gaza Strip are updated as needed. The IDF continuously informs the civilian population of any changes,” it said.

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Australian mother guilty of murdering three people with poisonous mushrooms

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Australian mother guilty of murdering three people with poisonous mushrooms

An Australian mother has been found guilty of murdering her estranged husband’s parents and an aunt by serving them a beef wellington laced with poisonous mushrooms.

Erin Patterson, 50, invited her former parents-in-law, Don and Gail Patterson, both 70, and Gail Patterson’s sister, Heather Wilkinson, 66, to the fatal lunch on 29 July 2023.

The mother-of-two, from the state of Victoria in southern Australia, has also been convicted of the attempted murder of Mrs Wilkinson’s husband Reverend Ian Wilkinson.

All four fell ill after eating a meal of beef wellington, mashed potatoes and green beans at Patterson’s home in the town of Leongatha, the court was told.

Prosecutors said Patterson knowingly laced the beef pastry dish with deadly death cap mushrooms, also known as Amanita phalloides, at her home.

The guests ate their meals off four large grey dinner plates, while Patterson ate from a smaller, tan-coloured plate, the court heard.

Mrs Wilkinson and Mrs Patterson died on Friday 4 August 2023, while Mr Patterson died a day later.

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Reverend Wilkinson spent seven weeks in hospital but survived.

Ian and Heather Wilkinson
Pic:The Salvation Army Australia - Museum
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Ian and Heather Wilkinson Pic: The Salvation Army Australia – Museum

Reverend Ian Wilkinson arrives at court. Pic: Reuters
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Ian Wilkinson arrives at court during the trial. Pic: Reuters

Her estranged husband Simon Patterson, with whom she has two children, was also invited to the lunch and initially accepted but later declined, the trial heard.

The jury was told that prosecutors had dropped three charges that Patterson had attempted to murder her husband, who she has been separated from since 2015.

Reverend Wilkinson said that immediately after the meal, Patterson fabricated a cancer diagnosis, suggesting the lunch was put together so that she could ask them the best way to tell her children about the illness.

Read more:
Patterson denies measuring ‘fatal dose’
Patterson weeps in court

The four people were fed death cap mushrooms. File pic
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Death cap mushrooms. File pic: iStock

The prosecution said she did this to justify the children’s absence.

The defence did not dispute that Patterson lied about having cancer.

The trial attracted intense interest in Australia – with podcasters, journalists and documentary-makers descending on the town of Morwell, around two hours east of Melbourne, where the court hearings took place.

A sentencing date is yet to be scheduled.

What makes death cap mushrooms so lethal?

The death cap is one of the most toxic mushrooms on the planet and is involved in the majority of fatal mushroom poisonings worldwide.

The species contains three main groups of toxins: amatoxins, phallotoxins, and virotoxins.

From these, amatoxins are primarily responsible for the toxic effects in humans.

The alpha-amanitin amatoxin has been found to cause protein deficit and ultimately cell death, although other mechanisms are thought to be involved.

The liver is the main organ that fails due to the poison, but other organs are also affected, most notably the kidneys.

The effects usually begin after a short latent period and can include gastrointestinal disorders followed by jaundice, seizures, coma, and eventually, death.

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Israel attacks Houthi targets at three ports and power plant in Yemen

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Israel attacks Houthi targets at three ports and power plant in Yemen

Israel says its military has attacked Houthi targets at three ports and a power plant in Yemen.

Defence minister Israel Katz confirmed the strikes, saying they were carried out due to repeated attacks by the Iranian-backed rebel group on Israel.

Mr Katz said the Israeli military attacked the Galaxy Leader ship which he claimed was hijacked by the Houthis and was being used for “terrorist activities in the Red Sea”.

A bridge crane damaged by Israeli airstrikes is pictured in the Yemeni port of Hodeidah on 31 July 2024. Pic: Reuters
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A bridge crane damaged by Israeli airstrikes last year in the Yemeni port of Hodeidah. Pic: Reuters

It came after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued an evacuation warning for people at Hodeidah, Ras Issa, and Salif ports – as well as the Ras al Khatib power station, which it said is controlled by Houthi rebels.

The IDF said it would carry out airstrikes on those areas due to “military activities being carried out there”.

Afterwards, Mr Katz confirmed the strikes at the ports and power plant.

Earlier in the day, a ship was reportedly set on fire after being attacked in the Red Sea.

A private security company said the assault, off the southwest coast of Yemen, resembled that of the Houthi militant group.

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From May: Israel strikes Yemen’s main airport

It was the first such incident reported in the vital shipping corridor since mid-April.

The vessel, identified as the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier Magic Seas, had taken on water after being hit by sea drones, maritime security sources said. The crew later abandoned the ship.

The Houthi rebels have been launching missile and drone attacks against commercial and military ships in the region in what the group’s leadership called an effort to end Israel’s offensive against Hamas in Gaza.

Between November 2023 and January 2025, the Houthis targeted more than 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones, sinking two of them and killing four sailors.

The Houthis paused attacks in a self-imposed ceasefire until the US launched an assault against the rebels in mid-March.

That ended weeks later and the Houthis have not attacked a vessel, though they have continued occasional missile attacks targeting Israel.

Read more:
What is the possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal?
‘We’ll never yield’: Millions of Iranians unite in mourning

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A renewed Houthi campaign against shipping could again draw in US and Western forces to the area.

The ship attack comes at a sensitive moment in the Middle East.

A possible ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war hangs in the balance and Iran is weighing up whether to restart negotiations over its nuclear programme.

It follows American airstrikes last month, which targeted its most-sensitive atomic sites amid an Israeli war against the Islamic Republic that ended after 12 days.

How did the Houthis come to control much of Yemen?

A civil war erupted in Yemen in late 2014 when the Houthis seized Sanaa.

Worried by the growing influence of Shia Iran along its border, Saudi Arabia led a Western-backed coalition in March 2015, which intervened in support of the Saudi-backed government.

The Houthis established control over much of the north and other large population centres, while the internationally recognised government based itself in the port city of Aden.

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