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Iran has pledged a “decisive reaction” to Israel’s onslaught against Iranian allies across the region, but Tehran seems to have badly miscalculated the risk its arch foe is willing to take.

In the face of such a multi-pronged assault, the regime might even be wondering whether they, or rather their nuclear sites – seen as by far the biggest threat to Israel – could be next.

Israel-Hezbollah latest: Hezbollah warns Israel ‘we are ready’ for ground invasion

Unspoken rules that have in the past deterred a direct Israeli attack on Iran have been ripped up following the killing of the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the dismantling of much of Hamas in Gaza, and large airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.

Israeli troops are now preparing for a possible ground incursion into Lebanon as they seek to inflict lasting damage on Hezbollah, the region’s largest paramilitary force and Iran’s most prized insurance policy.

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Israeli military at Lebanese border

The speed and intensity of events make it impossible to predict what will happen next. A priority for Iran though will be to try to restore deterrence – yet it might already be too late.

Israel’s actions appear designed to achieve a fundamental shift in the balance of power in the region, where Tehran’s “axis of resistance” – armed groups, funded, equipped and trained by Iran and aligned with its interests – has been a hugely powerful force.

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The Iranian president on Sunday night denounced the Israeli attacks against Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis and vowed to respond – though without indicating how.

Masoud Pezeshkian just said: “We cannot accept such actions and they will not be left unanswered.”

In considering its next move, Tehran will have drawn lessons from its response in April to an Israeli strike against an Iranian consulate building in the Syrian capital, Damascus.

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From April: Iran blames Israel for deadly strike

At that time, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones towards Israel – at the higher end of expectations – but the majority of the barrage was defeated by Israeli air defences supported by the US, UK and other allies.

Israel was encouraged to “take the win” and not strike back too hard – advice that it heeded in the immediate aftermath and a descent into uncontrolled confrontation was avoided.

Yet three months later, the Israelis escalated tensions once again by killing Ismail Haniyeh, a top Hamas leader, while he was in Tehran.

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From July: Hamas leader killed in Tehran

That provocation triggered new expectations of retaliation which have yet to materialise – an Iranian silence that may well have emboldened Israel to cross further red lines, right up to the taking out of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, last Friday.

Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said Iran has a reputation for calibrating its operations to avoid escalation to direct war with Israel.

“But it seems to have badly miscalculated how much risk the Israelis – and Netanyahu in particular – are willing to take after 7 October, given the shock that produced in Israel and the level of threat it created,” he said.

“The so-called axis of resistance is meant to be a deterrent to attacks on Iran. But Iran probably won’t risk direct war on behalf of its partners.

“So while a ground incursion into Lebanon would be difficult, the Israelis might pay the cost if they can deal a generational blow to Hezbollah. And many will argue, given the loss of its leadership and its communications problems, if not now, then when?”

If such a blow is possible, might Israel then have the capacity, capability and confidence to turn its sights directly on its biggest enemy, Iran?

Read more:
Is wider war in the Middle East inevitable?

Airstrike hits apartment in Beirut


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Local officials in Lebanon say more than 1,000 people have been killed in Israeli bombings.
Pic: Reuters

Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, has relentlessly warned of the danger posed to his country by Tehran, which he believes is intent on acquiring nuclear weapons – a move that Israel would not tolerate.

The Iranian government denies such a plan, saying its nuclear facilities are purely for civilian use.

In the past, calculations about Iran by Israel and its closest ally, the US, were based on an understanding that a direct attack would risk Hezbollah – in Iran’s defence – unleashing deadly volleys of missiles in Israel’s direction.

That threat still exists, but the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and his top lieutenants in Israeli airstrikes as well as the destruction of weapons sites across Lebanon have dealt punishing blows to the group, which will impact its ability to fight back at least in the short term.

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Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of course has a potent arsenal of missiles of its own, bolstered with new technology and capabilities from its partner Russia.

It means any direct confrontation would be catastrophic for the region – something that Iran and Israel will both be all too aware of as they decide responses and counter-responses.

The United States appears increasingly worried about what comes next if calls for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah as well as Israel and Hamas continue to go unheeded.

The Middle East has been on the brink of all-out war for almost a year but this is by far the most dangerous moment.

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Israeli embassy shooting suspect ‘fired repeatedly after victims hit the ground’

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Israeli embassy shooting suspect 'fired repeatedly after victims hit the ground'

The man suspected of shooting dead two Israeli embassy workers in Washington DC leaned over and fired at them repeatedly after they fell to the ground, the FBI has said.

Elias Rodriguez, 31, has been charged with murdering Sarah Milgrim and her boyfriend Yaron Lischinsky, after they left an event at the Capital Jewish Museum on Wednesday night.

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Footage has showed Rodriguez, from Chicago, chanting “free, free Palestine” as he was arrested.

It later emerged Mr Lischinsky had bought a ring and planned to propose to Ms Milgrim.

Authorities are investigating the killings as both a hate crime against the Jewish community and terrorism.

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Shootings suspect shouts ‘free Palestine!’

‘I did it for Gaza’

It comes as the FBI has said in a charging document on Thursday that surveillance footage shows how Ms Milgrim and Mr Lischinsky died.

Rodriguez is allegedly seen passing the couple after they left the museum before shooting them in the back.

The FBI says the footage then shows him leaning over the couple and firing at them several more times after they fell to the ground.

The video then shows Ms Milgrim attempting to crawl away before “(Rodriguez) followed behind her and fired again”, the charging document says.

The suspected gunman is then accused of reloading his weapon and firing at Ms Milgrim as she sat up.

According to the charging document, Rodriguez then jogged to the museum and once inside asked to speak to a police officer before stating that he “did it” and that he was unarmed.

He is then said to have told police: “I did it for Palestine, I did it for Gaza, I am unarmed.”

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DC shooting: Father pays tribute to ‘perfect’ daughter

Suspect ‘expressed admiration’ for fatal protest

The court document also states that 21 expended 9mm bullet cases were found at the scene and the gun was slide-locked – meaning it was empty of ammunition.

An empty gun magazine was also recovered from the scene.

The FBI says it has obtained travel records which show Rodriguez flew from Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport to the Reagan National in Washington DC on Tuesday with the gun in his checked baggage.

Rodriguez had bought the weapon in the state of Illinois on 6 March 2020, according to the charging document.

The FBI has said that while Rodriguez was in custody he “expressed admiration” for a US Air Force member who set himself on fire in front of the Israeli embassy in Washington DC on 25 February 2024.

Aaron Bushnell died in the apparent act of protest against the war in Gaza.

Rodriguez also told police he bought a ticket to the museum around three hours before the event that was attended by Ms Milgrim and Mr Lischinsky.

Read more:
Why Trump will worry about attacker being glorified

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Starmer ‘on wrong side of history’

During a brief court appearance at the E. Barrett Prettyman Federal Courthouse in Washington DC today, Rodriguez was charged with two counts of first degree murder and with the murder of foreign officials.

He has also been charged with causing the death of a person through the use of a firearm and discharge of a firearm during a crime of violence.

Rodriguez was told he could face life in prison or the death penalty if he is found guilty.

He remained calm throughout the hearing, paying attention to the proceedings throughout and confirmed that he is asking the court to appoint an attorney on his behalf.

He will next appear at a federal court in Washington DC on 18 June.

Murdered couple ‘were perfect for each other’

Meanwhile, Ms Milgrim’s father, Robert, says he feared his daughter might be in danger when he saw news alerts of a fatal shooting in Washington DC.

Ms Milgrim’s mother Nancy opened a phone locator app and saw Ms Milgrim was at the Capital Jewish Museum.

“Shortly after that, the Israeli ambassador called us on my wife’s phone,” Mr Milgrim told Sky News’ partner network NBC News, fighting back tears.

He added that it was the ambassador who told them Mr Lischinksy had bought a ring and was planning to propose to Ms Milgrim.

“They were perfect for each other, he said.

Mr Milgrim continued: “They just brought us joy, and her memory, which is a blessing, will continue to bring us joy – but it’s not the same as her not being here.”

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Trump team will worry about Washington attacker being glorified

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Trump team will worry about Washington attacker being glorified

There are multiple layers to this shocking act of extreme violence.

The presence of the US attorney general at a midnight news conference is a clear indication of the Trump administration’s shock and swift reaction. Pam Bondi had already visited the scene of the attack.

The president himself was quick to comment on social media, calling it out as antisemitism and saying: “Hatred and Radicalism have no place in the USA.”

Israeli embassy staff shooting suspect ‘shouted free Palestine’ – follow live updates

A man with an Israeli flag kneels at the scene.
Pic: Reuters
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A man with an Israeli flag kneels at the scene. Pic: Reuters

There will be immediate questions for the US authorities about the security of Israeli diplomats. The shooting happened in the downtown area of DC, not far from the FBI field office and the FBI headquarters.

The two victims are understood to be junior aides and so probably not considered particular targets. But the shooting will prompt a fresh look at diplomatic security arrangements.

A video has emerged online said to show the gunman calmly shouting “free free Palestine” as he was detained by museum security.

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Tearful witness: ‘He shot this young couple’

Pro-Palestinian protests have been intense on college campuses, outside embassies and elsewhere; the Israeli embassy in Washington has been a particular focus of protesters.

Last year, a 25-year-old active duty US airman immolated himself in front of the Israeli embassy in Washington to protest the war in Gaza.

Israel’s diplomatic relations with close allies, including the UK, France and others, have become increasingly strained over the methods used in its continuing war in Gaza.

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Emergency services at the scene of the shooting. Pic: AP
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Emergency services at the scene of the shooting. Pic: AP

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Pic: Reuters

Authorities will also be braced for how this incident plays in the days ahead.

There will be a concern within the Trump administration that this man’s actions will be given some glorification in parts of society, mainly online, in the same way Luigi Mangione became not just infamous but famous for allegedly shooting dead a healthcare executive in protest of corporate greed.

Expect prompt condemnation from the White House of any such glorification.

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There is also a deeply tragic twist to this shooting. The two young victims were a couple and were due to travel to Jerusalem in the days ahead to become engaged.

I’ve been in touch with contacts at the Israeli embassy where the entire team is in shock and reeling at the loss of two of their own on the streets of Washington.

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Washington suspect told witness he ‘did this for Gaza’ in frenzied moments after Israeli embassy workers shot dead

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Washington suspect told witness he 'did this for Gaza' in frenzied moments after Israeli embassy workers shot dead

Witnesses have told Sky News of the moments after a man shot two Israeli embassy staff members outside a Jewish museum in Washington DC.

Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgram, a couple who were about to become engaged, were shot dead as they left the Annual Young Diplomats reception at the Capital Jewish Museum in the US capital.

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Footage emerges of Washington suspect

The suspect, named as Elias Rodriguez by police, shot at a group of four people just over a mile from the White House and then chanted a pro-Palestinian slogan in custody.

The event organiser told Sky News she handed the suspect water, mistakenly believing him to be an “innocent bystander”.

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Shooting suspect shouted ‘free Palestine’

Jojo Drake Kalin said the event was wrapping up when she headed to the lobby to find “commotion and a frenzy” but at that time, no one was aware two people had lost their lives.

“The gunshots were heard, so security started locking the doors and that is when I saw who I now know is the… murderer of this Israeli-Jewish couple,” she said.

Analysis: Trump team will worry about Washington attacker being glorified

Ms Drake Kalin didn’t find out until “much later” who she was actually talking to.

“I see him [and] he seems very distraught. I now understand it’s because he killed two people point-blank. [I] offered him water, he accepted,” she said.

“The second I’ve handed him water, he whips out his keffiyeh [a scarf] and yells ‘Free Palestine’ and then he’s subdued by the officers on scene.”

Ms Drake Kalin said the event was themed around “bridge-building” between Israeli and Palestinian communities.

She called it “painfully ironic” that someone came in with “such hate and destruction”, considering the event’s theme.

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Tearful witness: ‘He shot this young couple’

Another witness, John Elleson, cried as he told Sky News correspondent Ashish Joshi what he saw.

“A guy came up and… looked like [he had a] gun, I couldn’t tell what it was, but I heard it afterwards, the shots, and he shot this young couple,” he said.

“He ran inside and yelled something.

“It was terrible. It was terrible.”

Another eyewitness, Katie Kalisher, said it was around 9.07pm when she heard gunshots.

“Then a man comes in. He looks really distressed and people are talking to him and trying to calm him down,” she said.

“Eventually, he comes over to where I was and we were like, ‘Do you need any water?’, ‘Are you okay?'”

Ms Kalisher said the suspect asked her what kind of museum he was in and when she replied, “It’s a Jewish museum,” he said: “Do you think that’s why they did this?”

She told him she didn’t think so but he then reached into his bag and pulled out a keffiyeh.

“[He] says, ‘I did it. I did this for Gaza’ – and just starts shouting ‘free Palestine’ and that’s when the police came in and arrested him,” said Ms Kalisher.

The reaction to the shooting has been one of shock, with President Donald Trump condemning the “horrible killings” which he said were “based obviously on antisemitism”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his heart ached for the families of the victims, “whose lives were cut short in a moment by an abhorrent antisemitic murderer”.

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