Iran has pledged a “decisive reaction” to Israel’s onslaught against Iranian allies across the region, but Tehran seems to have badly miscalculated the risk its arch foe is willing to take.
In the face of such a multi-pronged assault, the regime might even be wondering whether they, or rather their nuclear sites – seen as by far the biggest threat to Israel – could be next.
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Israeli military at Lebanese border
The speed and intensity of events make it impossible to predict what will happen next. A priority for Iran though will be to try to restore deterrence – yet it might already be too late.
Israel’s actions appear designed to achieve a fundamental shift in the balance of power in the region, where Tehran’s “axis of resistance” – armed groups, funded, equipped and trained by Iran and aligned with its interests – has been a hugely powerful force.
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The Iranian president on Sunday night denounced the Israeli attacks against Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis and vowed to respond – though without indicating how.
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Masoud Pezeshkian just said: “We cannot accept such actions and they will not be left unanswered.”
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From April: Iran blames Israel for deadly strike
At that time, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones towards Israel – at the higher end of expectations – but the majority of the barrage was defeated by Israeli air defences supported by the US, UK and other allies.
Israel was encouraged to “take the win” and not strike back too hard – advice that it heeded in the immediate aftermath and a descent into uncontrolled confrontation was avoided.
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From July: Hamas leader killed in Tehran
That provocation triggered new expectations of retaliation which have yet to materialise – an Iranian silence that may well have emboldened Israel to cross further red lines, right up to the taking out of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, last Friday.
Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said Iran has a reputation for calibrating its operations to avoid escalation to direct war with Israel.
“But it seems to have badly miscalculated how much risk the Israelis – and Netanyahu in particular – are willing to take after 7 October, given the shock that produced in Israel and the level of threat it created,” he said.
“The so-called axis of resistance is meant to be a deterrent to attacks on Iran. But Iran probably won’t risk direct war on behalf of its partners.
“So while a ground incursion into Lebanon would be difficult, the Israelis might pay the cost if they can deal a generational blow to Hezbollah. And many will argue, given the loss of its leadership and its communications problems, if not now, then when?”
If such a blow is possible, might Israel then have the capacity, capability and confidence to turn its sights directly on its biggest enemy, Iran?
Image: Local officials in Lebanon say more than 1,000 people have been killed in Israeli bombings.
Pic: Reuters
Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, has relentlessly warned of the danger posed to his country by Tehran, which he believes is intent on acquiring nuclear weapons – a move that Israel would not tolerate.
The Iranian government denies such a plan, saying its nuclear facilities are purely for civilian use.
In the past, calculations about Iran by Israel and its closest ally, the US, were based on an understanding that a direct attack would risk Hezbollah – in Iran’s defence – unleashing deadly volleys of missiles in Israel’s direction.
That threat still exists, but the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and his top lieutenants in Israeli airstrikes as well as the destruction of weapons sites across Lebanon have dealt punishing blows to the group, which will impact its ability to fight back at least in the short term.
Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of course has a potent arsenal of missiles of its own, bolstered with new technology and capabilities from its partner Russia.
It means any direct confrontation would be catastrophic for the region – something that Iran and Israel will both be all too aware of as they decide responses and counter-responses.
The United States appears increasingly worried about what comes next if calls for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah as well as Israel and Hamas continue to go unheeded.
The Middle East has been on the brink of all-out war for almost a year but this is by far the most dangerous moment.
Donald Trump said he will ask the Justice Department to investigate Jeffrey Epstein’s alleged ties to former US president Bill Clinton and other prominent Democrats.
The call from the US president comes as fresh questions about Mr Trump’s own relationship with the paedophile financier were raised as his name came up multiple times when 20,000 pages were released from Epstein’s files earlier this week. Mr Trump has called claims to link him to Epstein as a “hoax”.
Mr Trumpsaid he would ask US Attorney General Pamela Bondi to look into any alleged involvement between former Democrat leader Clinton and paedophile financier Epstein. She later wrote on X that she would assign the investigation to Jay Clayton, the US attorney for the Southern District of New York.
Along with Mr Clinton, Mr Trump said he would also ask the Justice Department to investigate former treasury secretary Larry Summers, and Reid Hoffman, the LinkedIn founder, who is also a prominent Democratic donor.
Image: Former US president Bill Clinton. File Pic: Reuters
All three men were mentioned in the 20,000 Epstein-related documents released by the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday. None of them, however, have been accused of wrongdoing in the Epstein case.
In a lengthy post on his social media platform Truth Social, Mr Trump said: “Now that the Democrats are using the Epstein Hoax, involving Democrats, not Republicans, to try and deflect from their disastrous SHUTDOWN, and all of their other failures, I will be asking A.G. Pam Bondi, and the Department of Justice, together with our great patriots at the FBI, to investigate Jeffrey Epstein’s involvement and relationship with Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, Reid Hoffman, J.P. Morgan, Chase, and many other people and institutions, to determine what was going on with them, and him.”
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Mr Trump also said: “Epstein was a Democrat, and he is the Democrat’s problem, not the Republican’s problem!
“They all know about him, don’t waste your time with Trump. I have a Country to run!”
What do the named parties say about alleged links to Epstein?
Angel Urena, deputy chief of staff for Mr Clinton, said in 2019: “President Clinton knows nothing about the terrible crimes Jeffrey Epstein pleaded guilty to in Florida some time ago, or those with which he has been recently charged in New York…has never been to Little St James Island, Epstein’s ranch in New Mexico, or his residence in Florida.”
Epstein had been a JPMorgan client from 1998 until 2013.
“The firm deeply regrets any association with this man, and would never have continued doing business with him if it believed he was using the bank in any way to commit his heinous crimes,” JPMorgan said in a statement in September 2023.
Summers, former Harvard University president, recently issued a statement saying he has “great regrets in my life.”
“As I have said before, my association with Jeffrey Epstein was a major error of judgement,” the statement said.
Similarly, Mr Hoffman told Axios in 2019 he regretted his relationship with Epstein.
“My few interactions with Jeffrey Epstein came at the request of Joi Ito, for the purposes of fundraising for the MIT Media Lab.
“Prior to these interactions, I was told by Joi that Epstein had cleared the MIT vetting process, which was the basis for my participation.
“My last interaction with Epstein was in 2015. Still, by agreeing to participate in any fundraising activity where Epstein was present, I helped to repair his reputation and perpetuate injustice. For this, I am deeply regretful.”
A 47-year-old New Jersey man died last year from alpha-gal syndrome, a red meat allergy caused by a tick bite.
His death is believed to be the first documented death from a meat allergy triggered by tick bites.
Symptoms for alpha-gal syndrome – which in 2011 was first linked to bites from the Lone Star tick – can include hives, nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea, severe stomach pain, difficulty breathing, dizziness and swelling of the lips, throat, tongue or eyelids.
The reaction to the foods that cause the symptoms can be delayed, and usually present themselves a few hours later, unlike some other food allergies, which occur soon after eating.
The new research follows the case of a healthy airline pilot who went camping in 2024 with his wife and children. They had steak for supper. This was unusual, as he rarely ate meat.
He woke at 2am with violent pain in his abdomen, vomiting and diarrhoea.
The next day he ate breakfast and went on a five-mile walk.
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A fortnight later, back in New Jersey, he went to a barbecue, where he ate a hamburger. About four hours later, he grew ill. Shortly afterwards, his son found him on the bathroom floor unconscious.
Image: Am operating theatre. File pic by iStock
His son called paramedics, and he was admitted to hospital, but the man was announced dead later that night.
Blood tests conducted by researchers revealed evidence of the alpha-gal syndrome. Proof that it came from a Lone Star tick is inconclusive.
The researchers made the link after a statement from the man’s wife, who had said he had 12 or 13 “chigger” bites near his ankles earlier in the summer.
But the conclusion makes sense, as people in eastern America sometimes mistake the bites from mites with those from larval ticks.
More than 100,000 people in the U.S. have become allergic to red meat since 2010 because of the syndrome, according to one estimate.
Three Chinese astronauts have successfully returned to Earth from their nation’s space station after their capsule was damaged.
The team deployed a red and white striped parachute as they descended, before landing at a remote site in the Gobi Desert in Asia on Friday.
The astronauts – Chen Dong, Chen Zhongrui and Wang Jie – had been due to return on 5 November to end their six-month rotation at the Tiangong space station.
However, their journey back was delayed by nine days because the Shenzhou-20 return capsule they were due to travel in was found to have tiny cracks.
These were most likely caused by the impact of space debris hitting the craft, China’s space agency said.
There are millions of pieces of mostly tiny particles that circle the Earth at speeds faster than a bullet.
They can come from launches and collisions and pose a risk to satellites, space stations and the astronauts who operate outside them.
With the Shenzhou-20 out of action, the crew – who travelled to the space station in April – used a Shenzhou-21 craft instead, which had brought a three-person replacement crew to the station.
Image: The launch of the Shenzhou-21 craft from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in Gansu province, China, on 31 October. Pic: Kyodo via AP
The Chinese space agency said the stranded taikonauts – the Chinese word for astronauts – had remained in good condition throughout.
The first module of the Tiangong, which means “Heavenly Palace”, was launched by the Chinese state in 2021.
It is smaller than the International Space Station, from which Beijing is blocked, due to US national security concerns.
China’s space programme has developed steadily since 2003.
In a long term plan to advance its orbital capabilities, China plans to land a person on the moon by 2030 and has already explored Mars with a robotic rover.
The Asian nation’s latest space mission brought four mice to study how weightlessness and confinement would affect them.
An engineer from the Chinese Academy of Sciences said the study will help master key technologies for breeding and monitoring small mammals in space.