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Iran has pledged a “decisive reaction” to Israel’s onslaught against Iranian allies across the region, but Tehran seems to have badly miscalculated the risk its arch foe is willing to take.

In the face of such a multi-pronged assault, the regime might even be wondering whether they, or rather their nuclear sites – seen as by far the biggest threat to Israel – could be next.

Israel-Hezbollah latest: Hezbollah warns Israel ‘we are ready’ for ground invasion

Unspoken rules that have in the past deterred a direct Israeli attack on Iran have been ripped up following the killing of the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the dismantling of much of Hamas in Gaza, and large airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.

Israeli troops are now preparing for a possible ground incursion into Lebanon as they seek to inflict lasting damage on Hezbollah, the region’s largest paramilitary force and Iran’s most prized insurance policy.

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Israeli military at Lebanese border

The speed and intensity of events make it impossible to predict what will happen next. A priority for Iran though will be to try to restore deterrence – yet it might already be too late.

Israel’s actions appear designed to achieve a fundamental shift in the balance of power in the region, where Tehran’s “axis of resistance” – armed groups, funded, equipped and trained by Iran and aligned with its interests – has been a hugely powerful force.

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The Iranian president on Sunday night denounced the Israeli attacks against Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis and vowed to respond – though without indicating how.

Masoud Pezeshkian just said: “We cannot accept such actions and they will not be left unanswered.”

In considering its next move, Tehran will have drawn lessons from its response in April to an Israeli strike against an Iranian consulate building in the Syrian capital, Damascus.

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From April: Iran blames Israel for deadly strike

At that time, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones towards Israel – at the higher end of expectations – but the majority of the barrage was defeated by Israeli air defences supported by the US, UK and other allies.

Israel was encouraged to “take the win” and not strike back too hard – advice that it heeded in the immediate aftermath and a descent into uncontrolled confrontation was avoided.

Yet three months later, the Israelis escalated tensions once again by killing Ismail Haniyeh, a top Hamas leader, while he was in Tehran.

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From July: Hamas leader killed in Tehran

That provocation triggered new expectations of retaliation which have yet to materialise – an Iranian silence that may well have emboldened Israel to cross further red lines, right up to the taking out of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, last Friday.

Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said Iran has a reputation for calibrating its operations to avoid escalation to direct war with Israel.

“But it seems to have badly miscalculated how much risk the Israelis – and Netanyahu in particular – are willing to take after 7 October, given the shock that produced in Israel and the level of threat it created,” he said.

“The so-called axis of resistance is meant to be a deterrent to attacks on Iran. But Iran probably won’t risk direct war on behalf of its partners.

“So while a ground incursion into Lebanon would be difficult, the Israelis might pay the cost if they can deal a generational blow to Hezbollah. And many will argue, given the loss of its leadership and its communications problems, if not now, then when?”

If such a blow is possible, might Israel then have the capacity, capability and confidence to turn its sights directly on its biggest enemy, Iran?

Read more:
Is wider war in the Middle East inevitable?

Airstrike hits apartment in Beirut


Pic: Reuters
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Local officials in Lebanon say more than 1,000 people have been killed in Israeli bombings.
Pic: Reuters

Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, has relentlessly warned of the danger posed to his country by Tehran, which he believes is intent on acquiring nuclear weapons – a move that Israel would not tolerate.

The Iranian government denies such a plan, saying its nuclear facilities are purely for civilian use.

In the past, calculations about Iran by Israel and its closest ally, the US, were based on an understanding that a direct attack would risk Hezbollah – in Iran’s defence – unleashing deadly volleys of missiles in Israel’s direction.

That threat still exists, but the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and his top lieutenants in Israeli airstrikes as well as the destruction of weapons sites across Lebanon have dealt punishing blows to the group, which will impact its ability to fight back at least in the short term.

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Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of course has a potent arsenal of missiles of its own, bolstered with new technology and capabilities from its partner Russia.

It means any direct confrontation would be catastrophic for the region – something that Iran and Israel will both be all too aware of as they decide responses and counter-responses.

The United States appears increasingly worried about what comes next if calls for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah as well as Israel and Hamas continue to go unheeded.

The Middle East has been on the brink of all-out war for almost a year but this is by far the most dangerous moment.

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‘The future is in our hands’ scientists say, as 2024 becomes first year to pass 1.5C global warming threshold

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'The future is in our hands' scientists say, as 2024 becomes first year to pass 1.5C global warming threshold

Last year was the warmest on record, the first to breach a symbolic threshold, and brought with it deadly impacts like flooding and drought, scientists have said.

Two new datasets found 2024 was the first calendar year when average global temperatures exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – before humans started burning fossil fuels at scale.

The record heat has not only has real-world implications, as it contributed to deadly flooding in Spain and vicious drought in places like Zambia in southern Africa.

It is also highly symbolic.

Countries agreed in the landmark Paris Agreement to limit warming ideally to 1.5C, because after that the impacts would be much more dangerous.

The news arrives as California battles “hell on earth” wildfires, suspected to have been exacerbated by climate change.

And it comes as experts warn support for the Paris goals is “more fragile than ever” – with Donald Trump and the Argentinian president poised to row back on climate action.

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What caused 2024 record heat – and is it here to stay?

Friends of the Earth called today’s findings from both the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change service and the Met Office “deeply disturbing”.

The “primary driver” of heat in the last two years was climate change from human activity, but the temporary El Nino weather phenomenon also contributed, they said.

The breach in 2024 does not mean the world has forever passed 1.5C of warming – as that would only be declared after several years of doing so, and warming may slightly ease this year as El Nino has faded.

But the world is “teetering on the edge” of doing so, Copernicus said.

Prof Piers Forster, chair of the UK’s Climate Change Committee, called it a “foretaste of life at 1.5C”.

Dr Gabriel Pollen, Zambia’s national coordinator for disasters, said “no area of life and the economy is untouched” by the country’s worst drought in more than 100 years.

Six million people face starvation, critical hydropower has plummeted, blackouts are frequent, industry is “decimated”, and growth has halved, he said.

Paris goal ‘not obsolete’

Scientists were at pains to point out it is not too late to curb worse climate change, urging leaders to maintain and step up climate action.

Professor Forster said temporarily breaching 1.5C “does not mean the goal is obsolete”, but that we should “double down” on slashing greenhouse gas emissions and on adapting to a hotter world.

The Met Office said “every fraction of a degree” still makes a difference to the severity of extreme weather.

Firefighters battle the Palisades fire as it burns during a windstorm on the west side of Los Angeles.
Pic: Reuters
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The California fires were whipped up by strong, dry winds and likely worsened by climate change. Pic: Reuters

Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo added: “The future is in our hands: swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate”.

Climate action is ‘economic opportunity’

Copernicus found that global temperatures in 2024 averaged 15.10°C, the hottest in records going back to 1850, making it 1.60°C above the pre-industrial level during 1850-1900.

The Met Office’s data found 2024 was 1.53C above pre-industrial levels.

The figures are global averages, which smooth out extremes from around the world into one number. That is why it still might have felt cold in some parts of the world last year.

Greenpeace campaigner Philip Evans said as “the world’s most powerful climate denier” Donald Trump returns to the White House, others must “take up the mantle of global climate leadership”.

The UK’s climate minister Kerry McCarthy said the UK has been working with other countries to cut global emissions, as well as greening the economy at home.

“Not only is this crucial for our planet, it is the economic opportunity of the 21st century… tackling the climate crisis while creating new jobs, delivering energy security and attracting new investment into the UK.”

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Picture shows baby girl moments after birth on packed migrant dinghy heading for Canary Islands

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Picture shows baby girl moments after birth on packed migrant dinghy heading for Canary Islands

Photographs have captured the moments after a baby girl was born on a packed migrant dinghy heading for the Canary Islands.

The small boat was carrying 60 people and had embarked from Tan-Tan – a Moroccan province 135 nautical miles (250km) away.

One image shows the baby lying on her mother’s lap as other passengers help the pair.

The boat’s passengers – a total of 60 people, including 14 women and four children – were rescued by a Spanish coastguard ship.

Coastguard captain Domingo Trujillo said: “The baby was crying, which indicated to us that it was alive and there were no problems, and we asked the woman’s permission to undress her and clean her.

“The umbilical cord had already been cut by one of her fellow passengers. The only thing we did was to check the child, give her to her mother and wrap them up for the trip.”

Pic: Salvmento Maritimo/Reuters

Spanish coast guards wearing white suits work on a rescue operation as they tow a rubber boat carrying migrants, including a newborn baby, off the island off the Canary Island of Lanzarote, in Spain, in this handout picture obtained on January 8, 2025. SALVAMENTO MARITIMO/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES. MANDATORY CREDIT
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Coastguards rescued all 60 people aboard the boat. Pic: Salvmento Maritimo/Reuters


The mother and baby were taken for medical checks and treated with antibiotics, medical authorities said.

Dr Maria Sabalich, an emergency coordinator of the Molina Orosa University Hospital in Lanzarote, said: “They are still in the hospital, but they are doing well.”

When they are discharged from hospital, the pair will be moved to a humanitarian centre for migrants, a government official said.

They will then most likely be relocated to a reception centre for mothers and children on another of the Canary Islands, they added.

Thousands of migrants board boats attempting to make the perilous journey from the African coast to the Spanish Canaries each year.

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In 2024, a total of 9,757 people died on the route, according to Spanish migration charity Walking Borders.

Mr Trujillo said: “Almost every night we leave at dawn and arrive back late.

“This case is very positive, because it was with a newborn, but in all the services we do, even if we are tired, we know we are helping people in distress.”

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It’s not ‘traditional’ wildfire season – so why have the California fires spread so quickly?

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It's not 'traditional' wildfire season - so why have the California fires spread so quickly?

A real-life drama is unfolding just outside Hollywood. Ferocious wildfires have ballooned at an “alarming speed”, in just a matter of hours. Why?

What caused the California wildfires?

There are currently three wildfires torching southern California. The causes of all three are still being investigated.

The majority (85%) of all forest fires across the United States are started by humans, either deliberately or accidentally, according to the US Forest Service.

But there is a difference between what ignites a wildfire and what allows it to spread.

However these fires were sparked, other factors have fuelled them, making them spread quickly and leaving people less time to prepare or flee.

The main culprit so far is the Santa Ana winds.

Follow live: Malibu residents told to get ready to flee

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LA residents face ‘long and scary night ahead’

What are Santa Ana winds?

So-called Santa Ana winds are extreme, dry winds that are common in LA in colder winter months.

The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection warned strong Santa Ana winds and low humidity are whipping up “extreme wildfire risks”.

Winds have already topped 60mph and could reach 100mph in mountains and foothills – including in areas that have barely had any rain for months.

It has been too windy to launch firefighting aircraft, further hampering efforts to tackle the blazes.

These north-easterly winds blow from the interior of Southern California towards the coast, picking up speed as they squeeze through mountain ranges that border the urban area around the coast.

They blow in the opposite direction to the normal onshore flow that carries moist air from the Pacific Ocean into the area.

The lack of humidity in the air parches vegetation, making it more flammable once a fire is started.

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Wildfires spread as state of emergency declared

The ‘atmospheric blow-dryer’ effect

The winds create an “atmospheric blow-dryer” effect that will “dry things out even further”, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).

The longer the extreme wind persists, the drier the vegetation will become, he said.

“So some of the strongest winds will be at the beginning of the event, but some of the driest vegetation will actually come at the end, and so the reality is that there’s going to be a very long period of high fire risk.”

What role has climate change played?

California governor Gavin Newsom said fire season has become “year-round in the state of California” despite the state not “traditionally” seeing fires at this time of year – apparently alluding to the impact of climate change.

Scientists will need time to assess the role of climate change in these fires, which could range from drying out the land to actually decreasing wind speeds.

But broadly we know that climate change is increasing the hot, dry weather in the US that parches vegetation, thereby creating the fuel for wildfires – that’s according to scientists at World Weather Attribution.

But human activities, such as forest management and ignition sources, are also important factors that dictate how a fire spreads, WWA said.

Read more:
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A U.S flag flies as fire engulfs a structure while the Palisades Fire burns during a windstorm on the west side of Los Angeles, California.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

Southern California has experienced a particularly hot summer, followed by almost no rain during what should be the wet season, said Professor Alex Hall, also from UCLA.

“And all of this comes on the heels of two very rainy years, which means there is plenty of fuel for potential wildfires.

“These intense winds have the potential to turn a small spark into a conflagration that eats up thousands of acres with alarming speed – a dynamic that is only intensifying with the warmer temperatures of a changing climate.”

The flames from a fire that broke out yesterday evening near a nature reserve in the inland foothills northeast of LA spread so quickly that staff at a care home had to push residents in wheelchairs and hospital beds down the street to a car park.

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