Iran has pledged a “decisive reaction” to Israel’s onslaught against Iranian allies across the region, but Tehran seems to have badly miscalculated the risk its arch foe is willing to take.
In the face of such a multi-pronged assault, the regime might even be wondering whether they, or rather their nuclear sites – seen as by far the biggest threat to Israel – could be next.
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Israeli military at Lebanese border
The speed and intensity of events make it impossible to predict what will happen next. A priority for Iran though will be to try to restore deterrence – yet it might already be too late.
Israel’s actions appear designed to achieve a fundamental shift in the balance of power in the region, where Tehran’s “axis of resistance” – armed groups, funded, equipped and trained by Iran and aligned with its interests – has been a hugely powerful force.
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The Iranian president on Sunday night denounced the Israeli attacks against Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis and vowed to respond – though without indicating how.
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Masoud Pezeshkian just said: “We cannot accept such actions and they will not be left unanswered.”
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2:48
From April: Iran blames Israel for deadly strike
At that time, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones towards Israel – at the higher end of expectations – but the majority of the barrage was defeated by Israeli air defences supported by the US, UK and other allies.
Israel was encouraged to “take the win” and not strike back too hard – advice that it heeded in the immediate aftermath and a descent into uncontrolled confrontation was avoided.
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From July: Hamas leader killed in Tehran
That provocation triggered new expectations of retaliation which have yet to materialise – an Iranian silence that may well have emboldened Israel to cross further red lines, right up to the taking out of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, last Friday.
Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said Iran has a reputation for calibrating its operations to avoid escalation to direct war with Israel.
“But it seems to have badly miscalculated how much risk the Israelis – and Netanyahu in particular – are willing to take after 7 October, given the shock that produced in Israel and the level of threat it created,” he said.
“The so-called axis of resistance is meant to be a deterrent to attacks on Iran. But Iran probably won’t risk direct war on behalf of its partners.
“So while a ground incursion into Lebanon would be difficult, the Israelis might pay the cost if they can deal a generational blow to Hezbollah. And many will argue, given the loss of its leadership and its communications problems, if not now, then when?”
If such a blow is possible, might Israel then have the capacity, capability and confidence to turn its sights directly on its biggest enemy, Iran?
Image: Local officials in Lebanon say more than 1,000 people have been killed in Israeli bombings.
Pic: Reuters
Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, has relentlessly warned of the danger posed to his country by Tehran, which he believes is intent on acquiring nuclear weapons – a move that Israel would not tolerate.
The Iranian government denies such a plan, saying its nuclear facilities are purely for civilian use.
In the past, calculations about Iran by Israel and its closest ally, the US, were based on an understanding that a direct attack would risk Hezbollah – in Iran’s defence – unleashing deadly volleys of missiles in Israel’s direction.
That threat still exists, but the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and his top lieutenants in Israeli airstrikes as well as the destruction of weapons sites across Lebanon have dealt punishing blows to the group, which will impact its ability to fight back at least in the short term.
Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of course has a potent arsenal of missiles of its own, bolstered with new technology and capabilities from its partner Russia.
It means any direct confrontation would be catastrophic for the region – something that Iran and Israel will both be all too aware of as they decide responses and counter-responses.
The United States appears increasingly worried about what comes next if calls for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah as well as Israel and Hamas continue to go unheeded.
The Middle East has been on the brink of all-out war for almost a year but this is by far the most dangerous moment.
Iran’s response to Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities is “self-defence” and a “matter of principle”, the Iranian ambassador to the UK has told Sky News.
Speaking exclusively to The World With Yalda Hakim, Seyed Ali Mousavi said the “barbaric Israeli regime” is “violating international law” – describing Israel’s actions in recent days as “an act of aggression against the Iranian people”.
The conflict between Israel and Iran – once played out in a series of proxy wars – has escalated in the past three days.
Image: Sky’s Yalda Hakim spoke to Iran’s ambassador to the UK, Seyed Ali Mousavi
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Israel-Iran: How the conflict escalated
On Friday morning, explosions hit Tehran as Israel carried out a major attack on its top army leaders, nuclear sites, and nuclear scientists.
Iran threatened “severe punishment” and quickly retaliated with a wave of missiles.
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Missile aftermath in Israel
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Israeli missile hits warehouse in Iranian city
When questioned about whether Iran could continue fighting Israel, the Iranian ambassador told Yalda Hakim that “it is a matter of principle”.
He said: “This is about self-defence, there is no doubt about it.
“We are a responsible member state of the UN and we do all activities according to our international obligations.
“Any activities are only in the framework of self-defence.”
Image: Damage from an Iranian missile attack to a building in Bat Yam, Israel. Pic: Reuters
Image: Explosions over Jerusalem on Sunday
He added that his country would “do our best to preserve our territorial integrity”, and that “with the help of God”, Iran will “materialise endeavours concretely against our enemy – the Israeli regime”.
Mr Mousavi also told Hakim that Iran’s nuclear activities are “monitored”, and that recent comments by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were “politically motivated”.
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0:58
Missiles have also been seen over Tel Aviv
The UN nuclear watchdog’s board of governors found Iran was not complying with its nuclear obligations for the first time in 20 years.
Iran said it has “always adhered” to the safeguarding obligations laid down by the watchdog.
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Iranian ambassador reacts to strikes – full interview
Announcing Operation Rising Lion on Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Iran had recently taken steps to weaponise enriched uranium, which could be used to make nuclear weapons.
But Mr Mousavi stressed that Iran’s “peaceful activities” at its “nuclear fields” were only for the “generation of electricity, and other peaceful” things.
Iran was due to continue its round of negotiations with the US in Muscat – however, this was cancelled, given recent tensions.
The government is warning people not to travel to Israel under any circumstances, as the country’s missile exchange with Iran shows no sign of abating.
On Friday, the Foreign Office warned against “all but essential travel” to most of Israel.
The areas around Gaza, the West Bank and the Golan Heights were already classed as red zones, with warnings to avoid travel to these areas.
But the government has now updated the warning for the remainder of the country to red.
This puts Israel on the same level as Iran, and the change of advice is also likely to impact travel insurance.
However, with Israel’s airspace closed, it is unlikely many people will be attempting the journey, and Israel’s national airline El Al has announced it is cancelling flights to and from many European cities, as well as Tokyo and Moscow, until 23 June.
The change in travel advice comes after a second night of ballistic missile barrages from Iran following Israel’s attack in the early hours of Friday morning.
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1:43
An eight-storey residential building in Tel Aviv was hit by a missile last night.
On Sunday morning, Israel’s health ministry said 12 people had been killed over the past day, taking the total since Friday to 15. It also said 385 people had arrived at hospital with injuries overnight.
Iran has not provided a total number of deaths or overall casualties, but has claimed dozens have been killed.
Iran’s health minister has said most of those injured and killed in Israeli strikes were civilians. According to comments carried by news agency IRNA, he said the majority were women and children.
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18:00
The chancellor said UK forces could “potentially” be used to help defend Israel.
The UK government is sending military assets, including fighter jets, to the Middle East.
While the prime minister would not confirm to reporters that UK forces could be used to defend Israel from future Iranian attacks, the chancellor told Sky News earlier that the government is “not ruling anything out”.
Speaking to Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips, Rachel Reeves said sending military assets to the Middle East “does not mean that we are at war”, and emphasised that “we have not been involved in these strikes or this conflict”.
“But we do have important assets in the region,” she continued. “And it is right that we send jets to protect them. And that’s what we’ve done. It’s a precautionary move, and at the same time, we are urging de-escalation.”
Pushed on the question of what the UK would do if Israel asked for support with its operations, the chancellor replied: “I’m not going to rule anything out at this stage. It’s a fast-moving situation, a very volatile situation. But we don’t want to see escalation.”
A helicopter carrying Hindu pilgrims has crashed in India, killing seven people on board.
The accident happened within minutes of the helicopter taking off, officials said, on what should have been a 10-minute flight.
The helicopter was flying to Guptkashi, a prominent Hindu pilgrimage site in the Himalayas, from Kedarnath temple town in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand.
It comes three days after an Air India flight crashed less than a minute after taking off from Ahmedabad airport in northwestern India, killing at least 270 people.
The helicopter, which was operated by private helicopter service Aryan Aviation, went down in a forested area several miles from the Kedarnath pilgrimage route at around 5.30am local time.
Officials said the crash was believed to have been caused by poor weather conditions.
Authorities say they have launched a search and rescue operation and are expected to review operational protocols for flights in the region.
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The dead include the pilot and pilgrims from the neighbouring state of Uttar Pradesh and western states of Maharashtra and Gujarat, according to officials. The bodies were badly burned in a fire that followed the crash, they said.
Image: Smoke and debris at the site. Pic: Reuters
Tens of thousands of pilgrims visit Kedarnath, which is home to one of the four most sacred Hindu temple shrines, each summer. Many use helicopter services due to the difficult mountainous terrain.
Helicopter mishaps are not uncommon in the region, where sudden weather changes and high-altitude flying conditions can pose risks.
Earlier this month, a helicopter operating in the Kedarnath Valley made an emergency landing shortly after taking off on a highway due to a technical fault. The pilot was injured but all five passengers on board were unharmed.
In May, a helicopter crashed in Uttarkashi district, killing six people, including the pilot. One person survived.