Iran seems to have badly miscalculated the risks Israel are willing to take, as unspoken rules and deterrents ripped up
Iran has pledged a “decisive reaction” to Israel’s onslaught against Iranian allies across the region, but Tehran seems to have badly miscalculated the risk its arch foe is willing to take.
In the face of such a multi-pronged assault, the regime might even be wondering whether they, or rather their nuclear sites – seen as by far the biggest threat to Israel – could be next.
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Unspoken rules that have in the past deterred a direct Israeli attack on Iran have been ripped up following the killing of the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the dismantling of much of Hamas in Gaza, and large airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.
Israeli troops are now preparing for a possible ground incursion into Lebanon as they seek to inflict lasting damage on Hezbollah, the region’s largest paramilitary force and Iran’s most prized insurance policy.
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Israeli military at Lebanese border
The speed and intensity of events make it impossible to predict what will happen next. A priority for Iran though will be to try to restore deterrence – yet it might already be too late.
Israel’s actions appear designed to achieve a fundamental shift in the balance of power in the region, where Tehran’s “axis of resistance” – armed groups, funded, equipped and trained by Iran and aligned with its interests – has been a hugely powerful force.
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The Iranian president on Sunday night denounced the Israeli attacks against Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis and vowed to respond – though without indicating how.
Masoud Pezeshkian just said: “We cannot accept such actions and they will not be left unanswered.”
In considering its next move, Tehran will have drawn lessons from its response in April to an Israeli strike against an Iranian consulate building in the Syrian capital, Damascus.
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From April: Iran blames Israel for deadly strike
At that time, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones towards Israel – at the higher end of expectations – but the majority of the barrage was defeated by Israeli air defences supported by the US, UK and other allies.
Israel was encouraged to “take the win” and not strike back too hard – advice that it heeded in the immediate aftermath and a descent into uncontrolled confrontation was avoided.
Yet three months later, the Israelis escalated tensions once again by killing Ismail Haniyeh, a top Hamas leader, while he was in Tehran.
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From July: Hamas leader killed in Tehran
That provocation triggered new expectations of retaliation which have yet to materialise – an Iranian silence that may well have emboldened Israel to cross further red lines, right up to the taking out of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, last Friday.
Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said Iran has a reputation for calibrating its operations to avoid escalation to direct war with Israel.
“But it seems to have badly miscalculated how much risk the Israelis – and Netanyahu in particular – are willing to take after 7 October, given the shock that produced in Israel and the level of threat it created,” he said.
“The so-called axis of resistance is meant to be a deterrent to attacks on Iran. But Iran probably won’t risk direct war on behalf of its partners.
“So while a ground incursion into Lebanon would be difficult, the Israelis might pay the cost if they can deal a generational blow to Hezbollah. And many will argue, given the loss of its leadership and its communications problems, if not now, then when?”
If such a blow is possible, might Israel then have the capacity, capability and confidence to turn its sights directly on its biggest enemy, Iran?
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Airstrike hits apartment in Beirut
Local officials in Lebanon say more than 1,000 people have been killed in Israeli bombings.
Pic: Reuters
Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, has relentlessly warned of the danger posed to his country by Tehran, which he believes is intent on acquiring nuclear weapons – a move that Israel would not tolerate.
The Iranian government denies such a plan, saying its nuclear facilities are purely for civilian use.
In the past, calculations about Iran by Israel and its closest ally, the US, were based on an understanding that a direct attack would risk Hezbollah – in Iran’s defence – unleashing deadly volleys of missiles in Israel’s direction.
That threat still exists, but the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and his top lieutenants in Israeli airstrikes as well as the destruction of weapons sites across Lebanon have dealt punishing blows to the group, which will impact its ability to fight back at least in the short term.
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Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of course has a potent arsenal of missiles of its own, bolstered with new technology and capabilities from its partner Russia.
It means any direct confrontation would be catastrophic for the region – something that Iran and Israel will both be all too aware of as they decide responses and counter-responses.
The United States appears increasingly worried about what comes next if calls for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah as well as Israel and Hamas continue to go unheeded.
The Middle East has been on the brink of all-out war for almost a year but this is by far the most dangerous moment.
World
US ‘destroying’ international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia ‘halfway’, Ukraine’s UK ambassador warns
The United States is “finally destroying” the international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia “halfway”, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK has warned.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi said Washington’s recent actions in relation to Moscow could lead to the collapse of NATO – with Europe becoming Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s next target.
“The failure to qualify actions of Russia as an aggression is a huge challenge for the entire world and Europe, in particular,” he told a conference at the Chatham House think tank.
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“We see that it is not just the axis of evil and Russia trying to revise the world order, but the US is finally destroying this order.”
Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Pic: Reuters
Mr Zaluzhnyi, who took over as Kyiv’s ambassador to London in 2024 following three years as commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, also warned that the White House had “questioned the unity of the whole Western world” – suggesting NATO could cease to exist as a result.
It comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy scrambles to repair relations with US President Donald Trump following a dramatic row between the two men in the Oval Office last week.
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Mr Trump signalled on Tuesday that tensions could be easing, telling Congress he had received a letter from Mr Zelenskyy saying he was ready to sign a peace deal “at any time”.
Zelenskyy and Trump during their extraordinary Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters
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But on the same day, the US president ordered a sudden freeze on shipments of US military aid to Ukraine, and Washington has since paused intelligence sharing with Kyiv and halted cyber operations against Russia.
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Mr Zaluzhnyi said the pause in cyber operations and an earlier decision by the US to oppose a UN resolution condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine were “a huge challenge for the entire world”.
He added that talks between the US and Russia – “headed by a war criminal” – showed the White House “makes steps towards the Kremlin, trying to meet them halfway”, warning Moscow’s next target “could be Europe”.
World
Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh being forced to fight for same military accused of genocide against their people
Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh is a sprawling mass of humanity.
It’s a sea of makeshift bamboo shelters, home to more than one million Rohingya refugees – a mainly Muslim minority from Rakhine state in Myanmar.
Some 700,000 fled their homeland back in 2017 – after the Myanmar military massacred thousands.
The army was accused of genocide by the United Nations.
The Rohingya refugees didn’t escape danger though.
Right now, violence is at its worst levels in the camps since 2017 and Rohingya people face a particularly cruel new threat – they’re being forced back to fight for the same Myanmar military accused of trying to wipe out their people.
A child at the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar
Militant groups are recruiting Rohingya men in the camps, some at gunpoint, and taking them back to Myanmar to fight for a force that’s losing ground.
Jaker is just 19.
We’ve changed his name to protect his identity.
He says he was abducted at gunpoint last year by a group of nine men in Cox’s.
They tied his hands with rope he says and took him to the border where he was taken by boat with three other men to fight for the Myanmar military.
“It was heartbreaking,” he told me. “They targeted poor children. The children of wealthy families only avoided it by paying money.”
And he says the impact has been deadly.
“Many of our Rohingya boys, who were taken by force from the camps, were killed in battle.”
Jaker speaks to Sky’s Cordelia Lynch
An aerial view of the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar
The situation in Cox’s is desperate.
People are disillusioned by poverty, violence and the plight of their own people and the civil war they ran from is getting worse.
In Rakhine, just across the border, there’s been a big shift in dynamics.
The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group has all but taken control of the state from the ruling military junta.
Both the military and the AA are accused of committing atrocities against Rohingya Muslims.
And whilst some Rohingya claim they’re being forced into the fray – dragged back to Myanmar from Bangladesh, others are willing to go.
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Teknaf in Cox’s Bazar – where refugees arrive from Myanmar after crossing the Naf River
Some are so aggrieved with the AA, they’re willing to support their former persecutors.
Abu Zar is one of those willing to take up arms.
But not for the military or AA, he says.
Everyone praying in the mosque with him is prepared to go back to protect their own cause he says – not anyone else’s.
“We want to fight for our rights because we have been demanding justice for a long time. But the situation has become unbearable,” he tells me.
Abu Zar has said he is willing to take up arms for his own cause
It’s estimated between 3,000 and 5,000 Rohingya have joined armed groups from this camp.
But the fight they are joining has become increasingly bloody.
In a cramped shelter, we meet Safura.
Safura came under fire as she fled Myanmar
Safura’s son Aman had his foot blown off
Five days ago she managed to get out of Myanmar but she had to be carried part of the way.
Her legs are riddled with bullet wounds and the pain is severe.
Her son, Aman, who lies on the floor next to her, has had his foot blown off.
They were injured she said, during an attack on her family home in the middle of the night.
“They entered our house and shot all my family members. My husband and mother-in-law were killed on the spot.”
The military denies forcing Rohingya to the battlefield. But the camps tell a different story- one of surging violence and vulnerability.
US President Donald Trump has told Gazans to hand over Israeli hostages or “you are dead”.
The threat, made over social media, came hours after the White House confirmed that US officials had broken with tradition to hold direct talks with Hamas.
The US has previously avoided direct contact with the group owing to Washington’s longstanding position not to negotiate with terrorists – with Hamas having been designated as a terrorist group in the US since 1997.
In a press conference on Wednesday, White House press secretary Ms Keavitt said there had been “ongoing talks and discussions” between the US officials and Hamas.
File pic: AP
But she would not be drawn on the substance of the talks – taking place in Doha, Qatar – between US officials and Hamas, but said Israel had been consulted.
Ms Leavitt continued: “Dialogue and talking to people around the world to do what’s in the best interest of the American people, is something that the president has proven is what he believes is a good faith, effort to do what’s right for the American people.”
There are “American lives at stake,” she added.
Adam Boehler, Mr Trump’s pick to be special envoy for hostage affairs, participated in the direct talks with Hamas.
A spokesperson for Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Israel had “expressed to the United States its position regarding direct talks with Hamas”.
Hours later, Mr Trump warned Hamas to hand over Israeli hostages or “it’s over for you” – adding: “This is your last warning”.
Hamas militants on the day of a hostage handover in Gaza in February. Pic: Reuters
On his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump wrote: “Release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered or it is over for you.
“Only sick and twisted people keep bodies and you are sick and twisted. I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say.”
Mr Trump met with freed Israeli hostages on Wednesday, something he referenced in his social media post, before adding: “This is your last warning. For the leadership of Hamas, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance.
“Also, to the people of Gaza, a beautiful future awaits, but not if you hold hostages. If you do, you are dead. Make a smart decision. Release the hostages now, or there will be hell to pay later.”
Israel estimates about 24 living hostages, including American citizen Edan Alexander, and the bodies of at least 35 others, are still believed to be in Gaza.
Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu in February. Pic: Reuters
The US has a long-held policy of not negotiating with terrorists – which it is breaking with these talks as Hamas has been designated a foreign terrorist organisation by the US government’s National Counterterrorism Center since 1997.
The discussions come as a fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire continues to hold, but its future is uncertain.
Palestinians amid the rubble in the southern Gaza strip. Pic: Reuters
Mr Trump has signalled he has no intention of pushing the Israeli prime minister away from a return to combat if Hamas does not agree to terms of a new ceasefire proposal – which, Israel says, has been drafted by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.
The new plan would require Hamas to release half its remaining hostages – the group’s main bargaining chip – in exchange for a ceasefire extension and a promise to negotiate a lasting truce.
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Israel has made no mention of releasing more Palestinian prisoners, a key component of the first phase.
Fighting in Gaza has been halted since 19 January.
Hamas has exchanged 33 Israeli and five Thai hostages for some 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
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