Those with “milder mental health” issues and “lower-level physical conditions” could see their disability benefits cut, as the government looks to shave £6bn off the welfare bill.

Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, is expected to target sickness and disability benefit payments for savings on Tuesday, which comes ahead of the spring statement next Wednesday.

Politics latest: Welfare reforms ‘imminent’

Her welfare reform green paper will arrive after Downing Street insisted there is a “moral and an economic case for fixing our broken system”.

Government figures argue the rising sickness and disability bill, which has ballooned since the pandemic, is unsustainable and will “leave the welfare state losing legitimacy” in the eyes of the wider public if not dealt with.

The cuts come as the chancellor eyes a hole in the public finances on the back of lower than expected growth and rising borrowing costs, with the £9.9bn headroom she had at the budget in October now wiped out.

Rachel Reeves’ self-imposed fiscal rules mean day-to-day government spending must be covered by tax revenue by 2029-30, which leaves her needing billions of pounds in spending cuts (after ruling out further tax rises, her other option).

What changes should we expect?

Ms Kendall is expected to target personal independence payments (PIP) – one of the main forms of disability benefits for those with long-term illnesses or disabilities – amid a spike in claimants.

The PIP bill has grown from £13.7bn a year before the pandemic to £21.8bn in the current financial year, and is set to increase to £34.1bn by the end of the decade.

The number of people claiming this disability benefit is projected to more than double from two million to 4.3 million.

The work and pensions secretary will tell MPs that Labour will protect those who have a serious condition and can’t work, and the government’s rowed back from plans to freeze PIP payments after backlash from its backbench MPs.

These payments are now expected to rise in line with inflation, but the eligibility criteria will be tightened to whittle back the number of people eligible to claim.

One government figure told me it would result in some conditions, such as “milder mental health” or “lower-level physical conditions”, being ineligible for PIP.

But they stressed that those with more severe conditions and who are never going to be able to work would be protected and cared for.

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Which benefits could be cut?
Why Labour MPs are so uncomfortable

The key principles driving reforms

The changes are likely to draw criticism from some MPs, though one senior Labour source said they didn’t think there would be any ministerial resignations over the benefit announcements.

Another Labour figure told me they would be “massively shocked” if there were resignations.

However, a number of Labour MPs have voiced their concerns, as has the Manchester mayor Andy Burnham.

In a bid to assuage MPs, the work and pensions secretary is also expected to earmark £1bn of savings into employment support programmes as she frames the reforms around three clear principles.

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The first will be to prevent people from falling into long-term economic inactivity with a better support offer to get people back into work quickly.

The second will be to change the incentive systems to move people away from welfare dependency.

This could see Ms Kendall slash the highest level of incapacity benefit for working age people who have an illness or disability that limits their ability to work, while increasing the basic rate of support for those out of work (universal credit).

This is because the lower level of unemployment benefit has led to more people claiming for additional incapacity and disability benefits, while disincentivising them to try to find work.

The government will also announce a “right to try” scheme, allowing those on incapacity benefits to try returning to work without the risk of losing their benefits, as happens in the current system.

‘I don’t think they go far enough’

But with one in 10 working age people claiming sickness benefits, and one in eight young people not in education, employment or training, the reforms on Tuesday could be just the start of bigger changes – and potentially bigger political battles.

The cost of long-term sickness and disability benefits for working-age people has risen by about £20bn since the pandemic to about £48bn, and is forecast to hit almost £100bn by 2030.

“People are trapped on benefits and the bill is getting out of hand,” said one government figure.

“We are currently spending more than three times the annual policing bill on these benefits. It’s getting out of hand.

“I don’t think the reforms go far enough, and I don’t think people have clocked the size of the numbers going on here.”

In Thailand, Richard Burrows found an escape – a place to hide for nearly 30 years.

After abusing children, he fled the UK to avoid prosecution. But the severity of his crimes didn’t push him to live a low-profile life – far from it.

In the sandy shores of Phuket, he became very well known and liked. Everyone there knew him as Peter Smith, an identity he stole from a passport that wasn’t his.

No one appeared to know where he had gone after he failed to attend the start of his trial over alleged child sex offences at Chester Crown Court in 1997.

His abuse spanned a wide period from the 1960s to the 1990s. Some of the offences occurred at a children’s school in Cheshire and others happened in the Midlands, through his involvement with the scouts.

But it would take 27 years for him to be caught, finally arrested at Heathrow Airport.

He had settled in Thailand with a familiar routine and a wide circle of acquaintances. He would regularly dine at a small roadside restaurant, often ordering fish and chips.

The owner Pakorn Sanwongwan says the man they knew was kind and generous. They had no idea of his past.

“I’m very shocked because from my perspective, he was a good person. For the past 24 years he had recommended our restaurant to lots of people and brought us new customers,” he said.

His wife Supaporn says they were shocked when just a few months ago he announced he was “going to the UK and never coming back”.

It’s easy to see how many people were duped. He kept the reality of what he’d done largely hidden. And his was not a life lived under the radar.

He was involved in the local sailing community. His friends say he’d worked with local schools. And he’d worked in local media.

Burrows lived in a container, a short drive from the coastline. But things started to unravel when money ran thin.

He began opening up to a very small number of close friends, saying he needed to return to the UK to see family and was struggling financially.

“Ben”, not his real name, was among those close confidantes.

He said: “I knew him for 25 years. Only about three to four years ago, he started sort of revealing a few things that he’s not actually who his passport says he is and that he was searched by the UK authorities for some allegations, apparently, he’s done.”

Ben says he had no idea of the severity of the charges against him. The man he thought he knew was a kind soul, giving and supportive of many he met.

There were, he says, signs of his attraction to young people, but it didn’t raise alarm bells.

“Peter” had younger companions who cooked for him at home and he would finance the education of some of them, Ben told us.

“Obviously it was visible that he liked the younger generation. But that he would go for minors I would never have thought,” he said.

All of the offences were committed during Burrows’ time in the United Kingdom, and no charges have been brought against him in Thailand.

If Ben knew the details of Burrows’ sordid past, he may have thought differently. But Burrows was living a lie, enjoying a secret life in the sun.

Remarkably, Burrows went undetected for decades – his visa based on a fake passport, consistently renewed.

It’s unclear what exactly motivated his attempt to move back to the UK, a move that would end in his arrest at Heathrow.

Some we spoke to said he had run out of money and that he wanted to see family. But some suspected he was trying to make peace with his past.

Finally, he has been brought to justice. But his victims were left to deal with the horrific aftermath of his abuse.

Whilst he is now behind bars, they will also have to wrestle with the fact their abuser was able to enjoy a free and full life for so long.

Detectives searching for a Cardiff woman who has been missing since last summer have launched a murder investigation.

Three arrests have previously been made in connection with the disappearance of Charlene Hobbs.

Crimestoppers is now offering a reward of up to £20,000 for information that leads to the arrest and conviction of those responsible.

The last confirmed sighting of the 36-year-old, from Riverside, was a photograph taken on a mobile phone at a house in Broadway in the Adamsdown area of the city on 24 July last year.

Ms Hobbs, who has a distinctive dragon tattoo on her back, had her hair in a bun and was wearing a dark strapless top when the photo was taken.

The day before she was last seen, she was captured on CCTV at a Morrisons Local in Adamsdown.

In a statement released through South Wales Police, Ms Hobbs’ family said: “We still hope that Charlene can be found safe and well.

“We are grateful for the support of Crimestoppers and the reward to help us find her, and hope that this will help people to come forward with information about what has happened to Charlene.”

Detective Chief Inspector Matt Powell said: “We have always been determined to find Charlene alive and return her to her family, but despite a huge number of enquiries we have no proof that Charlene is alive.

“While I have always maintained an open mind, the lack of evidence that Charlene is alive means that we are now treating her disappearance as a murder investigation.

“We have spoken to more than 250 people, either known to Charlene or from areas where she is known to frequent, and no one can tell us where Charlene is or that she is alive, which of course we, her family and friends desperately want to hear.

“Several of those we have spoken to believe that she has died but no one has been able to provide any specific details.”

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Detectives and specialist search teams are continuing with extensive efforts to find Ms Hobbs and determine the circumstances around her disappearance.

DCI Powell added: “I still firmly believe that answers lie in the community, and that someone out there holds key information that will help us find Charlene.”

A 45-year-old man arrested in connection with the investigation remains on police bail.

A 43-year-old man and a 38-year-old woman have been released without charge.