Who moves on to October? What’s at stake for Mets, Braves — and D-backs?! — in Monday’s doubleheader
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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
Yes, we have one more day of regular-season baseball to be played. Sunday’s results failed to settle the National League wild-card race, so the New York Mets jumped on a plane to Atlanta for a doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves on Monday (1 p.m. ET on ESPN2). The Arizona Diamondbacks will be watching — they need one of these teams to pull off a sweep in order to get into the playoffs themselves.
Let’s break down some of the doubleheader’s biggest questions:
OK, why are we here in the first place?
These are makeup games from the two Hurricane Helene-related rainouts in last week’s Mets-Braves series. Without them, the current standings have the Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks in a virtual tie for the final two wild-card spots, necessitating the two games be played:
Diamondbacks: 89-73
Mets: 88-72
Braves: 88-72
The important thing to know here: Both the Mets and Braves hold the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks by virtue of winning their season series. That’s why the Diamondbacks need a sweep to get in; if the Mets and Braves split the doubleheader and all three teams finish 89-73, the Diamondbacks stay home.
Another thing to know: The Braves lead the season series over the Mets 6-5, so a split would see them remain the higher seed.
What are the scenarios for each team to clinch a playoff spot?
Let’s run through these:
1. The Mets win the first game, the Braves win the second game. The Braves are the No. 5 seed and head to the No. 4 San Diego Padres for a best-of-three wild-card series starting Tuesday. The Mets are the No. 6 seed and play the No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers. Yes, that means the Mets would have gone from Milwaukee on Sunday to Atlanta on Monday, and then back to Milwaukee on Tuesday. (The Braves would have to fly cross-country, but at least they were already in Atlanta.)
2. If the Braves win the first game and the Mets win the second, it’s the same result. The Braves are the No. 5 seed and the Mets are the No. 6 seed.
3. The Mets win both games. New York is the No. 5 seed and plays the Padres. The Diamondbacks are the No. 6 seed and play the Brewers in a rematch of last year’s wild-card series. The Mets travel from Milwaukee to Atlanta to San Diego. (They won’t complain.)
4. The Braves win both games. Atlanta is the No. 5 seed and plays the Padres; the Diamondbacks are the No. 6 seed and play the Brewers.
Keep in mind that whichever team wins the first game of the doubleheader clinches a playoff spot. That will provide less incentive — or, really, no incentive — for that team to churn through its best relievers in the second game. Not with the first wild-card game on hand for Tuesday.
Who are the starting pitchers?
Well, first of all, remember: The scheduled starter is likely to change for the team that wins the first game.
The Mets are going with right-hander Tylor Megill in the first game. Megill last pitched on Sept. 22 against the Phillies, allowing one run in four innings (but throwing 93 pitches). He has allowed just two runs over his past three starts. Right-hander Luis Severino is on the schedule for the second game. His last start was the first game of the Atlanta series last Tuesday and he took the loss, allowing seven hits and four runs in four innings. He has a 3.17 ERA over his past eight starts.
While the Mets used arguably their top three starters — Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and David Peterson — over the weekend against the Brewers, they are all lefties. These two righties might actually be a better matchup against the righty-heavy Braves lineup that had a .778 OPS against left-handed pitchers but .706 against right-handers.
It’s worth noting here that if both scheduled starters are used and the Mets advance — if they lose the first game and win the second — they would have to use Manaea on three days’ rest to start the wild-card series.
The Braves announced that rookie Spencer Schwellenbach will start Game 1. He faced off against Severino last week and pitched a gem, allowing just three hits and one run over seven innings. He faced the Mets one other time, back in July, and had the best game of his career, striking out 11 in seven scoreless innings.
Atlanta’s starter for the second game — for now — is Chris Sale.
Wait, yeah, what’s going on with Sale?
Good question. Sale, who leads the NL in wins, ERA and strikeouts, hasn’t pitched since Sept. 19, when he went five innings against the Cincinnati Reds. He was scheduled to start one of the rained-out games, but heading into the weekend the Braves said they would now save Sale for an “emergency” situation — meaning, a must-win game. That will come into play now only if they lose the first game.
It’s certainly an interesting strategic decision — if they had won Sunday with Sale pitching, they would have clinched a playoff spot. Instead, they can use him in the second game if needed, and if they win the first game, they’ll have Sale ready to start the first game of the wild-card series.
Of course, there’s also this question: Is he 100 percent right now?
His four-seam fastball averaged 92.7 mph against the Reds — his lowest average of the season, down from 95.9 mph the start before, and down from his overall season average of 94.8 mph. Maybe it was just a little late-season fatigue: He was starting on four days of rest and his previous start had come against the Los Angeles Dodgers, when he had his second-highest average velocity. But a 2 mph drop is considered significant, so it’s certainly something to note.
Maybe there’s nothing here. Maybe the Braves were just holding Sale back with the hope that he wouldn’t be needed and thus would be rested for the start of the postseason. We’ll find out if the Braves lose that first game.
What about the bullpens?
Mets manager Carlos Mendoza used Edwin Diaz to close out the 5-0 win over the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday. This is understandable — you don’t want to mess around in that situation. But it was a safe five-run lead and Diaz ended up throwing 26 pitches. Now, there’s a scenario where the Mets need him in six games over five days, counting Sunday’s finale, Monday’s doubleheader and the wild-card series.
The Braves are in better shape; none of their top relievers — closer Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez or Pierce Johnson — pitched in Sunday’s 4-2 loss to Kansas City. They also have one of the deepest and best bullpens in the league, so they’re in good shape to withstand the rigors of a doubleheader.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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