Microsoft’s mammoth AI bet will lead to over $100 billion in data center leases
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella speaks at a company event on artificial intelligence technologies in Jakarta, Indonesia, on April 30, 2024. Microsoft will invest $1.7 billion to build out cloud computing and artificial intelligence infrastructure in Indonesia, betting on Southeast Asia’s biggest economy to spur growth.
Dimas Ardian | Bloomberg | Getty Images
As Microsoft investors get ready for quarterly earnings this month, there’s one particular metric that’s become increasingly important: finance leases.
A finance lease lets a company pay for an asset over years, rather than all upfront. For companies like Microsoft that are building massive data centers to handle artificial intelligence workloads, shareholders have to get used to some big numbers.
In July, Microsoft told investors in a footnote of its annual report that finance leases that had not yet begun had soared to $108.4 billion, up $20.6 billion from the quarter before, and nearly $100 billion higher than two years earlier. Leases will commence between the 2025 and 2030 fiscal years, and will run for up to 20 years, the filing said.
Overall, Microsoft made $19 billion in capital expenditures in the latest quarter. The total, which includes assets acquired under finance leases, was up from $14 billion in the March quarter and was as much as Microsoft shelled out in the entire 2020 fiscal year.
“It’s an insane ramp,” said Charles Fitzgerald, a former Microsoft manager who writes about capital expenditures on his blog Platformonomics.
Investors will get further clarity on Microsoft’s lease finances when the company reports fiscal first-quarter results in late October. Executives at Microsoft and other top tech companies have approved higher capital expenditures in the past two years, often to boost their performance in generative AI.
Last month Microsoft confirmed its participation in a fund to back the development of data centers and the necessary energy infrastructure, mainly in the U.S. It also signed a 20-year power purchase agreement to restart a reactor at the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania.
Caught off guard
Microsoft’s higher costs in the June quarter weren’t a surprise to those who heeded finance chief Amy Hood’s guidance from April. She said for the third time in a year that Microsoft was expecting capital expenditures to grow “materially.”
Still, RBC Capital Markets’ Rishi Jaluria was caught off guard by the finance lease figure.
“I’m always on the side that capital leases and capital expenditures are going to be way higher than people think, but they exceeded my own expectations,” Jaluria said. “Frankly, I’m trusting Microsoft here.” A capital lease is another term for a finance lease.
Microsoft has said it achieves the best performance and the best cost when it’s building data centers from scratch. But sometimes the company needs additional capacity immediately, and finance leases can help Microsoft obtain it more quickly.
The pace has been frenetic since OpenAI introduced ChatGPT in late 2022. Microsoft supplies computing power to OpenAI, meaning the startup needs enough servers packed with Nvidia graphics processing units to keep ChatGPT online.
With ChatGPT and other OpenAI services becoming even more popular, Microsoft has signed up additional cloud providers, including CoreWeave and Oracle. UBS analysts wrote in a report in September that comments Hood made in January suggest that Microsoft’s finance leases include the relationships with CoreWeave and Oracle.
Microsoft declined to comment on where third-party cloud partnerships show up on its financial statements.
Jaluria said investors don’t pay attention to backlogs for capital leases. Microsoft doesn’t specify when they will kick in or how long they will last, making them less immediate than in-quarter capital expenditures.
CEO Satya Nadella normally defers to Hood when analysts ask financial questions on earnings calls. But in July, Nadella stepped up when an analyst asked about the strategy of forming partnerships with other cloud providers that supplement Microsoft’s direct data center spending.
“To me it’s no different than leases that we’ve already done in the past,” Nadella said. “You could even say sometimes buying from Oracle may be even more efficient leases because they are even shorter date.”
When it comes to the jump in capital expenditures and future finance leases, Jaluria said investors just have to accept that they will weigh on profitability.
“Naturally, margins are coming down,” said Jaluria, who has the equivalent of a buy rating on the stock. “The cost is here now, and the benefits are not here to offset it. And I think that’s OK.”
US President Joe Biden, left, and Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, speak on the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, in the Cross Hall of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2025. Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire deal, bringing at least a temporary halt to the war in Gaza that has killed tens of thousands of people in the last 15 months and touched off broader turmoil across the Middle East.
Aaron Schwartz | Sipa | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The Biden administration on Thursday announced an executive order on cybersecurity that imposes new standards for companies selling to the U.S. government and calls for greater disclosure from software providers.
The White House is looking to put in place new rules “to strengthen America’s digital foundations,” Anne Neuberger, deputy national security advisor for cybersecurity and emerging technology, said in a briefing with reporters on Wednesday.
Cyberattacks have caused an increasing number of disruptions inside federal agencies and companies in recent years.
Attackers have pulled off ransomware attacks at Change Healthcare, the operator of the Colonial Pipeline and the Ascension health care system. And Microsoft said in 2023 that Chinese attackers had broken into U.S. government officials’ email accounts, prompting a critical federal report and a series of changes at the software maker.
Companies selling software to the U.S. government will have to demonstrate that their development practices are secure, according to a statement. There will be “evidence that we post on a government website for all software users to benefit from,” Neuberger said.
The General Services Administration will have to make policy that makes cloud providers provide information to clients on how to operate securely.
Companies selling products and services to the U.S. government must adhere to a new set of security practices as a result of the executive order.
Last week the White House announced the U.S. Cyber Trust Mark label to help consumers evaluate internet-connected devices. The executive order states that the U.S. government will only purchase such products if they carry the label, starting in 2027.
The order also directs the National Institute for Standards and Technology to come up with guidance for handling software updates. In late 2020, hackers gained access to Microsoft and U.S. Defense Department systems by targeting updates to SolarWinds‘ Orion software.
It’s not clear if President-elect Donald Trump’s new administration will uphold the executive order. Biden’s cybersecurity officials have not met with those who will take up the work for Trump.
“We haven’t discussed, but we are very happy to, as soon as the incoming cyber team is named, of course, have any discussions during this final transition period,” Neuberger said.
WATCH: Fmr. CISA Director Chris Krebs on cyberthreats: Expect an increase of offensive cyber activity
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A soldier walks next to a Tesla Cybertruck, which was donated to the National Guard, after powerful winds fueling devastating wildfires in the Los Angeles area forced people to evacuate, in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood on the west side of Los Angeles, California, U.S. Jan. 13, 2025.
Daniel Cole | Reuters
Tesla started offering discounts on new Cybertruck vehicles in its inventory this week, according to listings on the company’s website.
Discounts are as high as $1,600 off new Cybertrucks, with the reduced price depending on configuration, and up to around $2,600 for demo versions of the trucks in inventory, the listings show. Production of the angular, unpainted steel pickups has reportedly slowed in recent weeks at Tesla’s factory in Austin, Texas.
Deliveries of the unconventional pickup began reaching customers in 2023. CEO Elon Musk originally unveiled the Cybertruck in 2019 and said it would cost around $40,000, but its base price in the U.S. was closer to $80,000 over the course of 2024.
Wall Street previously viewed the Cybertruck as an important driver of growth for Tesla’s core automotive sales.
While the Cybertruck outsold the Ford Lightning F-150 last year in the U.S. and became the fifth best-selling EV domestically, according to data tracked by Cox Automotive, its high price, repeat recalls and production issues in Austin hampered growth. In November, Tesla initiated its sixth recall in a year to replace defective drive inverters.
As CNBC previously reported, Tesla’s deliveries declined slightly year-over-year in 2024, even as EV demand worldwide reached a record. A slew of new competitive models from a wide range of automakers eroded Tesla’s market share.
According to Cox data, full-year EV sales reached an estimated 1.3 million in 2024 in the U.S., an increase of 7.3% from the prior year. But Tesla’s sales for the year declined by about 37,000 vehicles.
The Tesla Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan ranked as the top two best-selling EVs by a wide margin. But both older, more affordable Tesla models saw sales drop from the previous year. Cox estimated Tesla sold around 38,965 Cybertrucks in the U.S. last year.
In recent days, Musk apologized to customers in California for delays in delivering their Cybertrucks. He said the trucks are now being used to bring supplies and wireless internet service to people in Los Angeles impacted by devastating wildfires.
“Apologies to those expecting Cybertruck deliveries in California over the next few days,” Musk wrote on X. “We need to use those trucks as mobile base stations to provide power to Starlink Internet terminals in areas of LA without connectivity. A new truck will be delivered end of week.”
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