On a hilltop above Ashfield, a sculpture of a miner watches over the local towns.

In a part of Nottinghamshire with a proud mining heritage, almost a third of working-age people are now economically inactive.

It’s places like this where they’re bracing for the impact of welfare reform.

A group of young people meet here in a local park. They’re among the UK’s almost a million so-called NEETS – people aged 16-24 not in employment, education or training.

Holly, 17, had to drop out of college for having too much time off and explained she has a long-term condition that makes her sick, as well as autism and ADHD.

“I’m still living with my parents but I’m also on PIP,” she says. She’s concerned that the government is expected to tighten eligibility for PIP – personal independence payments – as part of cuts to sickness and disability benefits.

“It shouldn’t happen because I practically live off of it,” she says. “I use it to get around – transport – because I struggle to get buses and trains and stuff so I get Ubers a lot which can be quite pricey.”

She accepts that as a PIP claimant, she can work and says she’s been looking for jobs. “I do want to work,” she insists.

“It’s just the fact that I don’t know if I could work full time with it, and because I’m off sick a lot, I just don’t know if I’d be able to hold a job.”

It’s that concern that’s led her to pursue another option.

“I’m working on getting a fit note at the moment,” she says, referring to a note from her doctor that could lead to her being signed off.

It would mean she’d get more money in benefits – around double the amount a jobseeker receives with no condition to look for work – but she’d then risk losing it if she got a job, a situation she believes is perverse.

“If you have a fit note then it tells you that you cannot work ever – you shouldn’t be looking for a job – which I think is wrong,” she says.

Other young people who are looking for jobs here say when they apply for work they often don’t hear back.

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Pippa Carter, the director of the Inspire and Achieve Foundation, which works with more than 200 young people a year, says: “Mental health is the largest barrier with our young people.

“And COVID was an impact as well. They’re just not really able to get out of their rooms. They haven’t got that social confidence.

“And then if you then layer on top of that the benefits and welfare system… if they are signed off sick, for example, with their struggling mental health, they’re then stopped from trying to get employment and take steps forward.”

Many here would welcome a system that gives more help to young people taking their first steps into the workplace.

However, others worry that changes to health-related benefits will push some of society’s most vulnerable people deeper into poverty.

In the centre of Sutton in Ashfield, former care assistant Allison leans on a Zimmer frame as she walks along the high street.

Now 59, she says she was signed off sick with a range of health conditions around 15 years ago and claims PIP.

Recently, life has become a struggle. “We did use a food bank the other day for the first time, so degrading,” she says.

But she’s afraid that cuts to benefits would force her to rely on it.

“I’d be going there every week, I’d have to because I wouldn’t be able to survive.”

The King and Queen’s planned state visit to the Vatican to meet Pope Francis will go ahead despite his continuing ill health.

The palace confirmed that King Charles has written privately to the pontiff since he was admitted to hospital in February, and the historic gathering is still scheduled to take place in Rome in early April.

A Buckingham Palace source said they had shared “our hopes and prayers that Pope Francis’s health will enable the visit to go ahead”, although they signalled that alterations would be made to the visit if needed.

Outlining details of the planned meeting, a Buckingham Palace spokesperson said: “On Tuesday 8 April, and clearly subject to Pope Francis’s health, their majesties will visit the Holy See to join Pope Francis in celebrating the 2025 jubilee.

“Held traditionally once every 25 years, the jubilee is a special year for the Catholic Church; a year of reconciliation, prayer and walking together as ‘Pilgrims of Hope’, which is the jubilee’s theme.

“The King and Queen will have an audience with Pope Francis. Their Majesties will also attend a service in the Sistine Chapel, focused on the theme of ‘care for creation’, reflecting Pope Francis’s and His Majesty’s long-standing commitment to nature.”

The tour, from 7 to 10 April, will include two state visits to Rome and Ravenna in Italy, and the Holy See – the government of the Roman Catholic Church – in the Vatican.

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Charles will pass two milestones, becoming the first British monarch to visit the Papal Basilica of St Paul Outside the Walls, the resting place of St Paul since the reformation, and address both houses of Italy’s parliament.

The King will hold audiences with Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and the monarch and his wife will attend a black-tie state banquet at the Palazzo Quirinale.

At the weekend, the Vatican released the first photograph of the Pope since he was admitted to hospital on 14 February with a severe case of bronchitis, which developed into double pneumonia.

Medical staff said last week that the pontiff, 88, was no longer in a critical, life-threatening condition, but added that his condition remained complex due to his age, lack of mobility and the loss of part of a lung as a young man.

Other highlights of the April trip will see the UK and Italy’s defence co-operation recognised by a joint flypast over Rome by the Italian Air Force’s aerobatic team, Frecce Tricolori, and the RAF’s Red Arrows.

In Ravenna, near Bologna, Charles and Camilla will mark the 80th anniversary of the province’s liberation from Nazi occupation by Allied forces on 10 April 1945, during a town hall reception.

The couple will also mark their 20th wedding anniversary on 9 April.

Those with “milder mental health” issues and “lower-level physical conditions” could see their disability benefits cut, as the government looks to shave £6bn off the welfare bill.

Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, is expected to target sickness and disability benefit payments for savings on Tuesday, which comes ahead of the spring statement next Wednesday.

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Her welfare reform green paper will arrive after Downing Street insisted there is a “moral and an economic case for fixing our broken system”.

Government figures argue the rising sickness and disability bill, which has ballooned since the pandemic, is unsustainable and will “leave the welfare state losing legitimacy” in the eyes of the wider public if not dealt with.

The cuts come as the chancellor eyes a hole in the public finances on the back of lower than expected growth and rising borrowing costs, with the £9.9bn headroom she had at the budget in October now wiped out.

Rachel Reeves’ self-imposed fiscal rules mean day-to-day government spending must be covered by tax revenue by 2029-30, which leaves her needing billions of pounds in spending cuts (after ruling out further tax rises, her other option).

What changes should we expect?

Ms Kendall is expected to target personal independence payments (PIP) – one of the main forms of disability benefits for those with long-term illnesses or disabilities – amid a spike in claimants.

The PIP bill has grown from £13.7bn a year before the pandemic to £21.8bn in the current financial year, and is set to increase to £34.1bn by the end of the decade.

The number of people claiming this disability benefit is projected to more than double from two million to 4.3 million.

The work and pensions secretary will tell MPs that Labour will protect those who have a serious condition and can’t work, and the government’s rowed back from plans to freeze PIP payments after backlash from its backbench MPs.

These payments are now expected to rise in line with inflation, but the eligibility criteria will be tightened to whittle back the number of people eligible to claim.

One government figure told me it would result in some conditions, such as “milder mental health” or “lower-level physical conditions”, being ineligible for PIP.

But they stressed that those with more severe conditions and who are never going to be able to work would be protected and cared for.

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The key principles driving reforms

The changes are likely to draw criticism from some MPs, though one senior Labour source said they didn’t think there would be any ministerial resignations over the benefit announcements.

Another Labour figure told me they would be “massively shocked” if there were resignations.

However, a number of Labour MPs have voiced their concerns, as has the Manchester mayor Andy Burnham.

In a bid to assuage MPs, the work and pensions secretary is also expected to earmark £1bn of savings into employment support programmes as she frames the reforms around three clear principles.

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The first will be to prevent people from falling into long-term economic inactivity with a better support offer to get people back into work quickly.

The second will be to change the incentive systems to move people away from welfare dependency.

This could see Ms Kendall slash the highest level of incapacity benefit for working age people who have an illness or disability that limits their ability to work, while increasing the basic rate of support for those out of work (universal credit).

This is because the lower level of unemployment benefit has led to more people claiming for additional incapacity and disability benefits, while disincentivising them to try to find work.

The government will also announce a “right to try” scheme, allowing those on incapacity benefits to try returning to work without the risk of losing their benefits, as happens in the current system.

‘I don’t think they go far enough’

But with one in 10 working age people claiming sickness benefits, and one in eight young people not in education, employment or training, the reforms on Tuesday could be just the start of bigger changes – and potentially bigger political battles.

The cost of long-term sickness and disability benefits for working-age people has risen by about £20bn since the pandemic to about £48bn, and is forecast to hit almost £100bn by 2030.

“People are trapped on benefits and the bill is getting out of hand,” said one government figure.

“We are currently spending more than three times the annual policing bill on these benefits. It’s getting out of hand.

“I don’t think the reforms go far enough, and I don’t think people have clocked the size of the numbers going on here.”