Tory leadership race: Robert Jenrick in touching distance of Kemi Badenoch, poll shows
Robert Jenrick is within touching distance of Kemi Badenoch after a surge in his support, according to an exclusive Sky News poll of Tory members.
The latest YouGov survey of Conservative members for Sky News suggests there is a path to victory for all four candidates, although Tom Tugendhat faces a bigger hurdle than the rest.
The main shift in six weeks has been Ms Badenoch losing her commanding lead over Mr Jenrick among Tory members, according to the first poll of the people who will decide the next Tory leader since the field was reduced to four candidates.
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Tory members opted for Ms Badenoch by 59% to Mr Jenrick’s 41% six weeks ago – an 18-point lead – if the pair were head to head in the final round.
Now they would choose Ms Badenoch by 52% to Mr Jenrick’s 48%, only a four-point lead, according to the new Sky News poll of 802 Tory members conducted over nine days to Sunday night.
Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick came out as the top two in the contest after the early rounds of voting. Next week, MPs will reduce the number of contenders to two.
At the Conservative Party conference, rival campaigns have been targeting Ms Badenoch by seizing her remarks about maternity pay.
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Ms Badenoch has lost her commanding lead over Mr Jenrick among Tory members, according to the latest poll. Pic: Reuters
Mr Jenrick’s campaign believes they have more chance of winning without Ms Badenoch in the final, while either James Cleverly or Mr Tugendhat are only likely to get in the race if she is eliminated.
One of the candidates representing the more moderate, one nation wing of the party could yet win the contest.
The polls show Mr Cleverly trailing Mr Jenrick by just four points in the final round. If they are head to head, Mr Jenrick gets 52% and Mr Cleverly 48%. Against Ms Badenoch, the gap is slightly bigger – eight points – with her on 54% and him on 46%.
Mr Tugendhat fares the worst in the final round, according to the polling. He would lose to both Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick 58% to 42% – by 16 points.
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Nigel Farage has successfully exploited the Commons recess to “grab the mic” and “dominate” the agenda, Harriet Harman has said.
Speaking on Sky News’ Electoral Dysfunction podcast, the Labour peer said that the Reform UK leader has been able to “get his voice heard” while government was not in “full swing”.
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Mr Farage used a speech this week to set himself, rather than Kemi Badenoch’s Tories, up as the main opposition to Sir Keir Starmer at the next election.
The prime minister responded on Thursday with a speech attacking the Clacton MP.
Baroness Harman said: “It’s slightly different between opposition and government because in government, the ministers have to be there the whole time.
“They’ve got to be putting legislation through and they kind of hold the mic.
“They can dominate the news media with the announcements they’re making and with the bills they’re introducing, and it’s quite hard for the opposition to get a hearing whilst the government is in full swing.
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“What we used to do when we were in opposition before 1997 is that as soon as there was a bank holiday and the House was not sitting, as soon as the half-term or the summer recess, we would be on an absolute war footing and dominate the airwaves because that was our opportunity.
“And I think that’s a bit of what Farage has done this week,” Harman added.
“Basically, Farage can dominate the media agenda.”
She went on: “He’s kind of stepped forward, and he’s using this moment of the House not sitting in order to actually get his voice heard.
“It’s sensible for the opposition to take the opportunity of when the House is not sitting to kind of grab the mic and that is what Nigel Farage has done.”
But Baroness Harman said it “doesn’t seem to be what Kemi Badenoch’s doing”.
She explained that the embattled leader “doesn’t seem to be grabbing the mic like Nigel Farage has” during recess, and added that “there’s greater opportunity for the opposition”.
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