As Netanyahu vows Iran payback, markets watch for dangers of further escalation
Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel, October 1, 2024
Amir Cohen | Reuters
Israel’s government has vowed a severe response to Iran’s unprecedented missile barrage into Tel Aviv, leaving the Middle East on edge as fears rise over a possible all-out war between the two long-time foes.
On Tuesday evening, Iran launched roughly 180 ballistic missiles at several sites across Israel, an attack Tehran said came in response to the Israeli assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah the week prior.
Israeli authorities say there were no casualties as a result of the offensive, and that most of the strikes were intercepted. But the event marked a turning point in a series of escalatory tit-for-tat moves, as Tehran appeared adamant to re-set deterrence and prove to Israel that it could — and would — attack at a time of its choosing.
Markets are now braced for what could follow a likely Israeli retaliation against Iran. Defense stocks are rallying — and long-subdued oil prices may also be set for increases, as industry watchers now see a real threat to crude supplies.
As much as 4% of global oil supply is at risk as oil infrastructure in Iran — one of OPEC’s largest crude producers — could become a target for Israel.
Oil prices gained over 5% in the previous session following the missile strike, before tapering to a 2.5% climb. The December delivery contract of global benchmark Brent was trading at $75.37 per barrel at 10:30 a.m. in London, while front-month November U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 2.68% to $71.70 per barrel.
“I think this focus might be on Israel, but the focus should really be on Iran, and whether there will be attacks on regional infrastructure. That really is the one event that we are looking for, and which could determine a more dangerous path for stock markets, for risk assets in general,” Frederique Carrier, head of investment strategy for the British Isles and Asia at RBC Wealth Management, told CNBC’s Capital Connection on Wednesday.
“We know, looking at the acts of war since the 1940s, that those which create an oil crisis [and] a prolonged increase in oil prices are the ones which have a long-lasting impact on stock markets.”
She added that so far, there is “no indication” of that.
Oil infrastructure ‘tempting targets for Israel’
Lewis Sage-Passant, an adjunct professor of intelligence at Sciences Po in Paris, described energy markets as jittery, as investors watch for Israel’s next moves.
“Iran depends on a handful of ‘chokepoint’ export terminals, such as Khark island, which will be tempting targets for Israel,” Sage-Passant said. “Energy sector teams seem nervous about an escalating tit-for-tat of strikes against regional infrastructure. Even without direct targeting, much of the world’s oil infrastructure sits under these missile’s flight paths, so naturally everyone is very nervous.”
Following the Tuesday attack, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan warned of severe consequences for Iran, saying that the U.S. would staunchly support Israel. But Washington’s efforts to de-escalate and prevent a region-wide conflict have clearly failed, according to Roger Zakheim, a former U.S. deputy assistant defense secretary and director of the Ronald Reagan Institute in Washington.
Iran’s attack and the subsequent Israeli response “may result in impact on oil, energy markets, certainly aviation, and I think certainly the defense sector … Investments in missile defense and ammunition, those companies that manufacture and produce those systems, for sure are going to be impacted by what’s playing out in the Middle East,” he said.
Immediately following the Iranian strikes, U.S. defense stocks hit record highs. Their European counterparts also ticked higher on Wednesday morning on the rising conflict risks, with Saab and BAE Systems adding 2.2%. Thales and Rheinmetall both rose more than 1.3%.
“Israelis now will respond, not only in kind, but do what is necessary to restore deterrence,” Zakheim added.
Deterrence, or full-blown war?
Questions remain whether a strong Israeli response would restore deterrence or trigger further escalation from Iran and tip the nations into a full-blown war. In a statement following the country’s missile salvos, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said: “Our action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation. In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful.”
Aside from geographical choke points in the oil market, “there are plenty of facilities on [the] Iranian side and also [on the ] Israeli side that could all be targeted in terms of critical infrastructure,” Sara Vakhshouri, founder and president at SVB Energy, told CNBC’s Capital Connection on Wednesday.
“That infrastructure is all connected,” she said, stressing that the sheer size of Iran means “it is impossible to somehow secure all of it.”
Some market watchers are warning oil could hit $100 per barrel.
Vakhshouri expressed doubts over such a forecast, noting that geopolitical events often only affect oil prices temporarily. The extent and duration of any market impact “depends on where the destruction would be and how much oil is going to be taken off the market,” she said.
“Definitely, prices will have an upward trend. [But] the other thing is that the market is focusing on huge uncertainty on both sides … [whether] it’s the demand side or the geopolitical side.”
A longer-term issue underpinning oil prices is the broader global demand picture. Brent crude hit a 33-month low in mid-September and had hovered around $70 per barrel until Iran’s missile attack on Israel, based on slowing global demand and abundant supply, particularly from non-OPEC+ producers.
“So it’s very interesting moment now,” Vakhshouri said. “We have the prices being resilient due to the fear of low demand in the market, but also the geopolitical factor is real. Any side could really push the market, and we have seen just in the past few days, how the prices go up and down, depending on how the sentiments are triggered in the market.”
Tesla has officially issued a recall on over 200,000 vehicles in the US over the self-driving computer inside the vehicle short-circuiting and failing to work.
This is an issue that Electrek has been reporting on for a month.
In December, Electrek released an exclusive report about Tesla having a major issue with a new version of its onboard “Full Self-Driving computer,” AI4.1, failing due to a short circuit, and Tesla must replace the computers.
We found examples of the issue arising as far back as July. The problem can start quickly, within a few miles on a brand-new car or after a few hundred to a few thousand miles.
When the computer fails, many vehicle features stop working, like active safety features, auto wipers, auto high beams, cameras, and even GPS, navigation, and range estimations.
Tesla’s fix was to replace the computer completely, but sources also mentioned a temporary software fix to enable some of the features in the meantime.
We followed up with another report earlier this week that highlighted how it is leaving customers in a difficult situation without the features and with faster battery degradation as the computer appears stuck in an auto-update mode that drains 5 kWh per day.
In the latest report, we also mentioned that Tesla has yet to issue a recall regarding this issue despite having to do so since these vehicles have become non-compliant with NHTSA without rear-view cameras.
Today, Tesla officially released a recall over the issue. For the first time, we get a better idea of the affected population, which adds up to 239,382 vehicles:
The subject population includes certain Model Year (MY) 2024 – 2025 Model 3, MY 2023-2025 Model Y, MY 2024-2025 Model S and MY 2023-2025 Model X vehicles that were equipped with certain car computers and operating a software release that was prior to 2024.44.25.3 or 2024.45.25.6
In the recall notice, Tesla describes the non-compliance:
On a small percentage of affected vehicles, upon vehicle power up, a reverse current may cause a shorting failure on the car computer board, resulting in the loss of rearview camera functionality, which does not comply with FMVSS 111, S5.5 and S6.2
Again, the problem is much larger than that as the entire computer fails, but the automaker only mentions the rear-view camera because that’s the part that makes it a safety risk and non-complaint.
Tesla says that it noticed the higher rate of computer failure on November 21, 2024. It started investigating and after about a month, it believes it has an idea of the cause, which would be several factors working together:
This sequence of specific software and hardware configurations, coupled with colder temperatures, could increase reverse current, which could short the primary and/or secondary power components.
As of December 30, 2024, Tesla has identified 887 warranty claims related to this issue.
In the remedy section of the recall, Tesla explains that it will push the software fix to the entire population, but it will also continue to provide computer replacement for vehicles who experience shorting:
On or shortly after December 18, 2024, at no cost to customers, affected vehicles began receiving an over-the-air (OTA) software update that changes the vehicle power up sequence to prevent the shorting failure condition to the primary and/or secondary power component. No further action is necessary from owners of affected vehicles that are equipped with software release 2024.44.25.3, 2024.45.25.6 or a later release if an affected vehicle has not experienced the shorting failure condition or stress that may lead to the shorting failure condition. Tesla is actively working to identify which affected vehicles, if any, experienced stress that may lead to the shorting failure condition. If an affected vehicle experienced the shorting failure condition or stress that may lead to the shorting failure condition prior to installing software release 2024.44.25.3, 2024.45.25.6 or a later release, then Tesla will replace the vehicle’s car computer at no cost to the customer.
We reported that some customers experiencing this issue are having to wait for months for a computer replacement.
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The electric Mazda 6 successor will arrive in Europe this summer. Mazda finally revealed its new EV, the Mazda 6e, with nearly 350 miles of driving range. Check out the new Mazda EV below.
Meet the new Mazda 6e EV for Europe
Mazda unveiled the 6e at the Brussels Motor Show in Belgium on Friday. The sleek electric sedan is the European version of the Mazda EZ-6, sold in China.
The EZ-6 is made by Mazda’s Chinese joint venture, Changan Mazda. It has been on sale in China since October, starting at just 139,800 yuan, or less than $20,000. Now, Mazda is bringing the Chinese-made EV to Europe.
Mazda said the new 6e is “designed to attain the driving performance and functionality to meet European customers’ needs.”
Although it’s tailored for European buyers, the 6e was still developed by Mazda and its Chinese partners. You can see the new EV still includes the classic Mazda design. However, the 6e is powered by Changan’s hybrid platform and is loaded with the latest in-cabin smart tech.
In China, the EZ-6 is available in EV and extended-range configurations. The all-electric model gets up to 372 miles (600 km) CLTC range.
Mazda will offer two battery options in Europe, 80 kWh and 68.8 kWh. The larger (80 kWh) battery pack provides up to 343 miles (552 km) WLTP range, while the smaller option can get up to around 300 miles (479 km) range.
At 4,921 mm long, 1,890 mm wide, and 1,491 mm tall, the new Mazda 6e is about the size of a Tesla Model 3 (4,720 mm long, 1,922 mm wide, and 1,441 mm tall with a 2,875 mm wheelbase).
Like in China, the European-made EV includes a clean interior with a 14.6″ infotainment and 10.1″ driver display screens. The “smart cabin” also features a 50″ virtual head-up display and other premium features like zero-gravity reclining seats.
The Mazda 6e will go on sale in Europe this summer as the Japanese automaker looks to meet the EU’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandates.
Since it will be exported from China, Mazda will still pay for it after the EU raised tariffs on Chinese EV imports by up to 45.3%. Mazda will reveal prices closer to launch, but they are expected to start much higher than the $20,000 price tag in China.
Earlier this week, we also learned Mazda will build its first dedicated EV on a new platform in Japan. The company is building a new module pack plant to supply battery cells for the upcoming electric car.
What do you think of the electric Mazda 6 successor? Would you buy one in the US or Europe? Let us know in the comments.
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Yadea, which has claimed the title of the world’s largest electric vehicle maker for seven years running, has just announced a new electric motorbike powered by the company’s innovative HuaYu sodium-ion battery technology.
Yadea has long dominated the electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler market globally, but has generally relied on both lithium-ion and lead acid batteries to power its vehicles in different markets.
The newly unveiled electric scooter uses Yadea’s recently introduced sodium battery technology, offering what the company says is outstanding performance in range, charging speed, and safety. Using the HuaYu Sodium Superfast Charging Ecosystem presented by Yadea, the battery can reach 80% charge in just 15 minutes, providing greater convenience for riders.
Yadea’s sodium battery has successfully passed more than 20 safety tests, many focusing on its resistance to fire and explosions under extreme conditions like punctures and compression.
Yadea’s new sodium battery offers an energy density of 145 Wh/kg and a lifespan of up to 1,500 cycles at room temperature, with the company rating it for a five-year useful lifespan. It also includes a three-year warranty for added assurance.
With excellent low-temperature capabilities, the battery retains over 92% of its discharge capacity at -20°C, making it well-suited for colder climates.
Sodium batteries present major advantages
Most electric vehicles used in the West, especially electric two-wheelers, rely on lithium-ion batteries for their high energy density. But sodium-ion batteries offer many benefits over traditional lithium-ion batteries.
Sodium is an abundant element on the planet and is easily accessible, unlike lithium, which is concentrated in specific regions and often expensive to extract. This abundance can make sodium-ion batteries cheaper to produce, reducing costs for EV manufacturers and potentially making electric vehicles more affordable.
Lithium mining also has environmental challenges, such as water depletion and habitat destruction. Sodium, on the other hand, can be sourced from seawater or common salts, offering a more sustainable and environmentally friendly option.
Sodium-ion batteries are less prone to overheating and thermal runaway compared to lithium-ion batteries. This makes them inherently safer for electric vehicles, reducing the risk of fires and improving consumer confidence in EV technology.
Sodium-ion batteries perform better than lithium-ion in cold climates. Lithium-ion batteries struggle with capacity retention in freezing conditions, but sodium batteries maintain efficiency, making them ideal for EVs in colder regions.
Sodium batteries still have challenges to overcome
While sodium-ion batteries are promising, they currently have a lower energy density than lithium-ion batteries, meaning they store less energy per unit of weight.
For EVs, this translates to shorter driving ranges for the same-sized battery. That’s especially important in electric two-wheelers like motorbikes and electric bicycles, which don’t have much extra space for storing bulky batteries.
However, advancements in cathode materials and battery architecture are quickly closing this gap, which Yadea has demonstrated. These sodium-ion batteries still can’t match the energy density of lithium-ion batteries, but as they continue to improve their energy density, the technology’s other major advantages provide encouraging signs for larger adoption in the industry.
Yadea’s status as a major electric motorbike maker also means that its adoption of sodium-ion battery technology could help lead the entire industry towards this battery chemistry, bringing safety and performance benefits along with it.
Last year I had the unique opportunity to visit one of Yadea’s global manufacturing sites.
To see inside the company’s massive and highly-automated manufacturing processes, check out the video below!
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