As Netanyahu vows Iran payback, markets watch for dangers of further escalation
Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel, October 1, 2024
Amir Cohen | Reuters
Israel’s government has vowed a severe response to Iran’s unprecedented missile barrage into Tel Aviv, leaving the Middle East on edge as fears rise over a possible all-out war between the two long-time foes.
On Tuesday evening, Iran launched roughly 180 ballistic missiles at several sites across Israel, an attack Tehran said came in response to the Israeli assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah the week prior.
Israeli authorities say there were no casualties as a result of the offensive, and that most of the strikes were intercepted. But the event marked a turning point in a series of escalatory tit-for-tat moves, as Tehran appeared adamant to re-set deterrence and prove to Israel that it could — and would — attack at a time of its choosing.
Markets are now braced for what could follow a likely Israeli retaliation against Iran. Defense stocks are rallying — and long-subdued oil prices may also be set for increases, as industry watchers now see a real threat to crude supplies.
As much as 4% of global oil supply is at risk as oil infrastructure in Iran — one of OPEC’s largest crude producers — could become a target for Israel.
Oil prices gained over 5% in the previous session following the missile strike, before tapering to a 2.5% climb. The December delivery contract of global benchmark Brent was trading at $75.37 per barrel at 10:30 a.m. in London, while front-month November U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 2.68% to $71.70 per barrel.
“I think this focus might be on Israel, but the focus should really be on Iran, and whether there will be attacks on regional infrastructure. That really is the one event that we are looking for, and which could determine a more dangerous path for stock markets, for risk assets in general,” Frederique Carrier, head of investment strategy for the British Isles and Asia at RBC Wealth Management, told CNBC’s Capital Connection on Wednesday.
“We know, looking at the acts of war since the 1940s, that those which create an oil crisis [and] a prolonged increase in oil prices are the ones which have a long-lasting impact on stock markets.”
She added that so far, there is “no indication” of that.
Oil infrastructure ‘tempting targets for Israel’
Lewis Sage-Passant, an adjunct professor of intelligence at Sciences Po in Paris, described energy markets as jittery, as investors watch for Israel’s next moves.
“Iran depends on a handful of ‘chokepoint’ export terminals, such as Khark island, which will be tempting targets for Israel,” Sage-Passant said. “Energy sector teams seem nervous about an escalating tit-for-tat of strikes against regional infrastructure. Even without direct targeting, much of the world’s oil infrastructure sits under these missile’s flight paths, so naturally everyone is very nervous.”
Following the Tuesday attack, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan warned of severe consequences for Iran, saying that the U.S. would staunchly support Israel. But Washington’s efforts to de-escalate and prevent a region-wide conflict have clearly failed, according to Roger Zakheim, a former U.S. deputy assistant defense secretary and director of the Ronald Reagan Institute in Washington.
Iran’s attack and the subsequent Israeli response “may result in impact on oil, energy markets, certainly aviation, and I think certainly the defense sector … Investments in missile defense and ammunition, those companies that manufacture and produce those systems, for sure are going to be impacted by what’s playing out in the Middle East,” he said.
Immediately following the Iranian strikes, U.S. defense stocks hit record highs. Their European counterparts also ticked higher on Wednesday morning on the rising conflict risks, with Saab and BAE Systems adding 2.2%. Thales and Rheinmetall both rose more than 1.3%.
“Israelis now will respond, not only in kind, but do what is necessary to restore deterrence,” Zakheim added.
Deterrence, or full-blown war?
Questions remain whether a strong Israeli response would restore deterrence or trigger further escalation from Iran and tip the nations into a full-blown war. In a statement following the country’s missile salvos, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said: “Our action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation. In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful.”
Aside from geographical choke points in the oil market, “there are plenty of facilities on [the] Iranian side and also [on the ] Israeli side that could all be targeted in terms of critical infrastructure,” Sara Vakhshouri, founder and president at SVB Energy, told CNBC’s Capital Connection on Wednesday.
“That infrastructure is all connected,” she said, stressing that the sheer size of Iran means “it is impossible to somehow secure all of it.”
Some market watchers are warning oil could hit $100 per barrel.
Vakhshouri expressed doubts over such a forecast, noting that geopolitical events often only affect oil prices temporarily. The extent and duration of any market impact “depends on where the destruction would be and how much oil is going to be taken off the market,” she said.
“Definitely, prices will have an upward trend. [But] the other thing is that the market is focusing on huge uncertainty on both sides … [whether] it’s the demand side or the geopolitical side.”
A longer-term issue underpinning oil prices is the broader global demand picture. Brent crude hit a 33-month low in mid-September and had hovered around $70 per barrel until Iran’s missile attack on Israel, based on slowing global demand and abundant supply, particularly from non-OPEC+ producers.
“So it’s very interesting moment now,” Vakhshouri said. “We have the prices being resilient due to the fear of low demand in the market, but also the geopolitical factor is real. Any side could really push the market, and we have seen just in the past few days, how the prices go up and down, depending on how the sentiments are triggered in the market.”
Environment
U.S. crude oil falls below $60 a barrel to lowest since 2021 on tariff-fueled recession fears
A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025.
Pavel Mikheyev | Reuters
U.S. oil prices dropped below $60 a barrel on Sunday on fears President Donald Trump’s global tariffs would push the U.S., and maybe the world, into a recession.
Futures tied to U.S. West Texas intermediate crude fell more than 3% to $59.74 on Sunday night. The move comes after back-to-back 6% declines last week. WTI is now at the lowest since April 2021.
Worries are mounting that tariffs could lead to higher prices for businesses, which could lead to a slowdown in economic activity that would ultimately hurt demand for oil.
Oil futures, 5 years
The tariffs, which are set to take effect this week, “would likely push the U.S. and possibly global economy into recession this year,” according to JPMorgan. The firm on Thursday raised its odds of a recession this year to 60% following the tariff rollout, up from 40%.
Fueled by incentives from the Illinois EPA and the state’s largest utility company, new EV registrations nearly quadrupled the 12% first-quarter increase in EV registrations nationally – and there are no signs the state is slowing down.
Despite the dramatic slowdown of Tesla’s US deliveries, sales of electric vehicles overall have perked up in recent months, with Illinois’ EV adoption rate well above the Q1 uptick nationally. Crain’s Chicago Business reports that the number of new EVs registered across the state totaled 9,821 January through March, compared with “just” 6,535 EVs registered in the state during the same period in 2024.
Those numbers represent more than 50% growth in EV registrations – far beyond the expected 12% first-quarter increase nationally being projected by Cox Automotive. (!)
What’s going on in Illinois?
While President Trump and Elmo were running for re-election, they campaigned on the threat promise of canceling the $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs. Along with California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois’ Governor JB Pritzker made countermoves – launching a $4,000 rebate for new electric cars and up to $1,500 for the purchase of a new electric motorcycle.
At the same time, the state’s largest utility, ComEd, launched a $90 million EV incentive program featuring a new Point of Purchase initiative to deliver instant discounts to qualifying business and public sector customers who make the switch to electric vehicles. That program has driven a surge in Class 3-6 medium duty commercial EVs, which are eligible fro $20-30,000 in utility rebates on top of federal tax credits and other incentives (Class 1-2 EVs are eligible for up to $7,500).
We covered the launch of those incentives when the program was announced at Chicago Drives Electric last year, but the message here is simple: incentives work.
SOURCES: Chicago Business, Ray Cunningham; featured image by the author.
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The electric construction equipment experts at XCMG just released a new, 25 ton electric crawler excavator ahead of bauma 2025 – and they have their eye on the global urban construction, mine operations, and logistical material handling markets.
Powered by a high-capacity 400 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery capable of delivering up to 8 hours of continuous operation, the XE215EV electric excavator promises uninterrupted operation at a lower cost of ownership and with even less downtime than its diesel counterparts.
XCMG is delivering on part of that reduced downtime promise with the lower maintenance and easier repair needs of electric equipment, and delivering on the rest of it with lickety-quick DC fast charging that can recharge the machine’s massive battery in 1.5-2 hours … but that’s not the slick bit. The XCMG XE125EV can be powered up without leaving the job site thanks to its BYD battery swap technology.
We first covered XCMG and its battery swap technology back in January, and covered similar battery-swap tech being developed by MOOG Construction offshoot ZQUIP, as well – but while XCMG’s battery tech has been in production for several years, it’s still not widely known about in the West (even within the industry).
XCMG showed off its latest electric equipment at the December 2024 bauma China, including an updated version of its of its 85-ton autonomous electric mining truck that features a fully cab-less design – meaning there isn’t even a place for an operator to sit, let alone operate. And that’s too bad, because what operator wouldn’t want to experience an electric truck putting down 1070 hp more than 16,000 lb-ft of torque!?
Easy in, easy out
The best part? All of the company’s heavy equipment assets – from excavators to terminal tractors to dump trucks and wheel loaders – all use the same 400 kWh BYD battery packs, Milwaukee tool style. That means an equipment fleet can utilize x number of vehicles with a fraction of the total battery capacity and material needs of other asset brands. That’s not just a smart use of limited materials, it’s a smarter use of energy.
You can check out all the XE215EV’s specs at this tear sheet, and get an in-person look at the Chinese company’s latest electric excavator this week in Munich, Germany.
SOURCE | IMAGES: XCMG.
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