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It takes a huge amount of capability, technology and firepower to defeat ballistic missiles – meaning a tit-for-tat air war would favour Israel, backed by the US, over Iran.

The head of the UK armed forces told Sky News over the summer that he does not believe any of the UK’s opponents – including Tehran, Moscow and Beijing – would be able to defeat the scale of attack that Iran first launched towards Israel in April.

“I think the US leadership and the proficiency that we have with our allies is at a level above our potential foes,” Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said in an interview.

Israel-Iran latest: Eight IDF soldiers killed in Lebanon

That attack in April involved more than 100 ballistic missiles, nearly 200 drones and tens of cruise missiles – which were largely defeated.

Israel and the United States played by far the biggest role in blasting them out of the sky but the UK and a number of other allies also offered support.

FILE - A battery of Israel's Iron Dome defense missile system, deployed to intercept rockets, sits in Ashkelon, southern Israel, Aug. 7, 2022. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit, File)
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A battery of Israel’s Iron Dome defence missile system. Pic: AP

This time around, the Iranian military fired almost twice as many ballistic missiles – the hardest type of weapon to intercept because of the speed they can travel at.

But Israel said most of the projectiles were again intercepted in an operation once more led by Israeli and US forces.

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‘I’ve never seen anything like it’

While some of the projectiles did penetrate the defences, the damage was seemingly limited.

It is an outcome that the US in particular will be hoping might limit the size of the Israeli retaliation.

This is what happened in April when the Netanyahu government was urged to “take the win”.

But Israel looks to be in no mood to compromise as its forces exploit the momentum from more than two weeks of punishing attacks against Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed paramilitary force in Lebanon, including the killing of its leader, which part-prompted the Iranian missile strike.

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Iran’s attack on Israel

Should the Israelis – as anticipated – launch an air attack on Iran, the damage that the Iranian regime would incur would likely be a lot bigger than what Israel absorbed unless the regime too is able to muster up some kind of coalition with its allies, principally Russia.

That seems highly unlikely given Russian forces will want to preserve their air defences to protect their own skies from increasing strikes by Ukraine – although the Russian government has been supplying Iran with increasingly sophisticated air defence systems, reportedly including the S-400, which is a step up from the Russian S-300 that Iran already operates.

A drone view shows people stand around apparent remains of a ballistic missile lying in the desert, following an attack by Iran on Israel, near the southern city of Arad, Israel.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Apparent remains of a ballistic missile lying in the desert, after the attack by Iran on Israel. Pic: Reuters

A drone view shows people stand around apparent remains of a ballistic missile lying in the desert, following an attack by Iran on Israel, near the southern city of Arad, Israel.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

The frailties in Iran’s own ability to defend its skies were exposed in January 2020 when a Revolutionary Guards air defence unit mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger aircraft, killing all 176 people on board.

The error happened during a previous time of regional tensions when Iran was bracing for possible US retaliation to an Iranian attack against US forces in Iraq.

Air defence like a ‘game of 3D chequers’

The task of air defence is high-pressure and hugely complex.

It relies on a layered set of defences that complement each other, and need to be closely coordinated, while involving rapid decision-making and action.

“Early radar and satellite warning is key,” said a former senior Royal Air Force officer.

Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept rockets that were launched from Lebanon, in northern Israel, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)
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Israeli Iron Dome air defence system fires to intercept rockets that were launched from Lebanon. Pic: AP

Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept rockets that were launched from Lebanon, in northern Israel, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)
Image:
Pic: AP

Images and movement picked up by satellite and radar are then used to identify possible threats, track them and work out if they are friendly, hostile or still unknown.

Next, commanders must prioritise the hostile threats, before instructing the appropriate air defence team to open fire.

Different threats require varying types of air defence systems, from short-range ground-based weapons to longer-range ones, with aircraft also able to play a role.

“So, a game of 3D chequers – putting in appropriate blocking pieces,” the former RAF officer said.

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How is Iran involved with Hezbollah?

Ballistic missiles are typically countered by large ground or sea-based air defence platforms that can even destroy the missile while it is out of the Earth’s atmosphere – which is almost certainly what will have happened to chunks of the incoming Iranian arsenal.

I watched some of the intercepts high up in the sky above northern Israel – they could well have been exoatmospheric (outside the Earth’s atmosphere).

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Missiles rain down on Jerusalem

Adding to the complexity of the challenge of shooting down incoming projectiles is Iran’s geography.

Geographically, it is a much bigger country than Israel, meaning finite air defence systems will only be able to guard the most important people and sites – in particular nuclear facilities.

Read more:
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Israel sends more troops into Lebanon
What is Iran’s new Fattah missile?

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On the flip side, the distance between Iran and Israel creates difficulties for the attacking force.

Israel has a far more sophisticated air force than the Iranians so may well seek to strike Iran with cruise missiles and other bombs launched from jets rather than ballistic missiles.

But they will need to fly more than 1,000 miles to hit their targets, laden with bombs and refuelling multiple times in the air – a mission that will be impossible to hide in advance.

Yet this is a mission Israel will have trained for.

It might well be just a matter of time until its aircraft fly the sortie for real.

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Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau resigns and suspends parliament until March

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Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau resigns and suspends parliament until March

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation.

The 53-year-old said he will step down as leader of the country’s ruling Liberal Party, which he has led since 2013.

He says it will allow his party to choose a new leader as he suspends parliament until March due to political deadlock.

Chrystia Freeland, who today stepped down as finance minister and deputy prime minister, arrives for a national caucus meeting, in Ottawa, Ontario, Monday, Dec. 16, 2024. (Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press via AP)
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Chrystia Freeland, seen on the day she quit as finance minister and deputy prime minister in December. Pic: Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press via AP

Follow live: Justin Trudeau announces resignation

Speaking to reporters in front of his residence at Rideau Cottage, in the country’s capital, Ottawa, he said “internal battles” mean that he “cannot be the best option” in the next election.

“I don’t easily back down faced with a fight, especially a very important one for our party and the country. But I do this job because the interests of Canadians and the well-being of democracy is something that I hold dear.

“A new prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party will carry its values and ideals into that next election. I am excited to see that process unfold in the months ahead.”

Former governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, is among the favourites to succeed him.

Chrystia Freeland, whose stunning resignation as finance minister and deputy prime minister precipitated the current crisis, leads in the polls.

Other front-runners are the former premier of British Columbia, Christy Clark, current finance minister Dominic LeBlanc and minister of foreign affairs, Melanie Joly.

Mr Trudeau, who has been prime minister since 2015, faced calls to quit from a chorus of his MPs amid poor showings in opinion polls.

He came under further pressure after Ms Freeland quit in December because of policy disagreements, including over how to handle possible US tariffs imposed by Donald Trump‘s incoming administration.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, left, are seen following a family photo of G7 leaders and Outreach partners at the Hotel San Domenico during a G7 summit in Taormina, Italy, Saturday, May 27, 2017. (Jonathan Ernst/Pool photo via AP)
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Justin Trudeau and Donald Trump in Italy in 2017. Pic: AP

Mr Trudeau’s resignation comes as the polls show his party is likely to suffer a heavy defeat to the official opposition Conservatives in an election that must be held by late October.

The Liberals must now name an interim leader to take over as prime minister ahead of a special leadership convention.

Mr Trudeau came to power 10 years ago following a decade of Conservative Party rule and was initially praised for returning the country to its liberal past.

But he has become deeply unpopular with voters in recent years over a range of issues, including the soaring cost of food and housing and surging immigration.

He is the eldest son of Pierre Trudeau, one of Canada’s most famous prime ministers, who led the country from 1968 to 1979 and from 1980 to 1984.

The political upheaval comes at a difficult moment for Canada internationally.

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US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Ottawa does not stem what Mr Trump calls a flow of migrants and drugs into the US.

Many fewer of each cross into the US from Canada than from Mexico, which Mr Trump has also threatened.

In a social media post on Christmas Day, Mr Trump even suggested the US could take control of Canada, as well as Greenland and the Panama Canal.

Canada is a major exporter of oil and natural gas to the US, which also relies on its northern neighbour for steel, aluminium and autos.

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Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau resigns and suspends parliament until March

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Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau resigns and suspends parliament until March

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation.

The 53-year-old said he will step down as leader of the country’s ruling Liberal Party, which he has led since 2013.

He says it will allow his party to choose a new leader as he suspends parliament until March due to political deadlock.

Chrystia Freeland, who today stepped down as finance minister and deputy prime minister, arrives for a national caucus meeting, in Ottawa, Ontario, Monday, Dec. 16, 2024. (Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press via AP)
Image:
Chrystia Freeland, seen on the day she quit as finance minister and deputy prime minister in December. Pic: Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press via AP

Follow live: Justin Trudeau announces resignation

Speaking to reporters in front of his residence at Rideau Cottage, in the country’s capital, Ottawa, he said “internal battles” mean that he “cannot be the best option” in the next election.

“I don’t easily back down faced with a fight, especially a very important one for our party and the country. But I do this job because the interests of Canadians and the well-being of democracy is something that I hold dear.

“A new prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party will carry its values and ideals into that next election. I am excited to see that process unfold in the months ahead.”

Mr Trudeau, who has been prime minister since 2015, faced calls to quit from a chorus of his MPs amid poor showings in opinion polls.

He came under further pressure after his finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned in December over clashes on policy.

The disagreements included how to handle possible US tariffs imposed by Donald Trump‘s incoming administration.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, left, are seen following a family photo of G7 leaders and Outreach partners at the Hotel San Domenico during a G7 summit in Taormina, Italy, Saturday, May 27, 2017. (Jonathan Ernst/Pool photo via AP)
Image:
Justin Trudeau and Donald Trump in Italy in 2017. Pic: AP

Mr Trudeau’s resignation comes as the polls show his party is likely to suffer a heavy defeat to the official opposition Conservatives in an election that must be held by late October.

The Liberals must now name an interim leader to take over as prime minister ahead of a special leadership convention.

Mr Trudeau came to power 10 years ago following a decade of Conservative Party rule and was initially praised for returning the country to its liberal past.

But he has become deeply unpopular with voters in recent years over a range of issues, including the soaring cost of food and housing and surging immigration.

He is the eldest son of Pierre Trudeau, one of Canada’s most famous prime ministers, who led the country from 1968 to 1979 and from 1980 to 1984.

The political upheaval comes at a difficult moment for Canada internationally.

Read more:
Former golden boy’s popularity in shreds
Zimbabwean migrants heading to South Africa
60m Americans under weather warnings

US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Ottawa does not stem what Mr Trump calls a flow of migrants and drugs into the US.

Many fewer of each cross into the US from Canada than from Mexico, which Mr Trump has also threatened.

In a social media post on Christmas Day, Mr Trump even suggested the US could take control of Canada, as well as Greenland and the Panama Canal.

Canada is a major exporter of oil and natural gas to the US, which also relies on its northern neighbour for steel, aluminium and autos.

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Justin Trudeau was once Canada’s golden boy – but he steps down with his popularity in shreds

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Justin Trudeau was once Canada's golden boy - but he steps down with his popularity in shreds

Few one-time golden boys manage to retain their lustre long into political office.

Barack Obama just about held on to his, leaving the US presidency with his approval rating high despite his party’s 2016 loss to Donald Trump.

But Emmanuel Macron is faltering in France and Justin Trudeau steps down as head of Canada’s liberal party with his popularity in shreds. So much for Western liberal values.

In the high tides of inflation and immigration, those who were their supposed flag-bearers are no longer what electorates want.

Follow live: Justin Trudeau announces resignation

For Mr Trudeau, it is a dramatic reckoning. His approval ratings have dropped from 65% at their highest in September 2016 to 22% now, according to the “Trudeau Tracker” from Canada’s non-profit Angus Reid Institute.

The sudden departure of his finance minister and key political ally Chrystia Freeland last month dealt his leadership a body blow, just as Canada readies itself for a potential trade war with the US which, she argued in a bracing resignation letter, his government was not taking seriously enough.

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“Parliament has been paralysed for months,” Trudeau says

The man Mr Trump recently trolled as “Governor of the ‘Great State of Canada’ or ’51st (US) state'”, Mr Trudeau was as close to Canadian political royalty as it gets.

The son of the country’s 15th prime minister, Pierre Trudeau, he was famously toasted by US president Richard Nixon as “the future prime minister of Canada” when he joined his father on a state visit as a toddler.

Aged five, he met the late Queen for the first time. “Thank you for making me feel so old”, she remarked drily at a re-meet in Malta almost 40 years later.

He has led Canada’s liberal party since 2013 and served as the country’s 23rd prime minister for almost a decade.

Mr Trudeau won a resounding electoral victory in 2015 and secured the premiership through two subsequent elections, though as head of a minority government.

Mr Trudeau, his wife and children celebrate after he won the Federal Liberal leadership in 2013 in Ottawa. Pic: AP/The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld
Image:
Mr Trudeau, his wife and children celebrate after he won the Federal Liberal leadership in 2013 in Ottawa. Pic: AP/The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld

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He made significant inroads against poverty in Canada, worked hard on nation to nation reconciliation with Canada’s indigenous communities, secured an effective trade deal with the US and Mexico in 2016 and managed to keep the public mostly on-side through the COVID-19 pandemic.

But he was a polarising figure. Holidays in exotic climes like a trip to the Bahamas in 2016 to an island belonging to the Aga Khan made him seem elitist and out of touch.

There was embarrassment when blackface images surfaced from his early years as a teacher, for which he apologised profusely.

His supposed liberal credentials smacked of double standards when he invoked emergency powers to crush truckers’ protests in 2022.

But it was the economic aftermath of the pandemic, with Canada suffering an acute housing shortage, immigration leaping under his premiership and the cost of living hitting households across the board which really piled on the pressure.

In those, Canada is not unique. But the opposition conservatives and the public at large clearly want change, and Mr Trudeau has responded.

He has announced his intention to resign as party leader and prime minister after the Liberals selects their next leader.

Mr Trudeau’s legacy may shine brighter with a little hindsight. But now is not that moment.

The question is whether his conservative opposition will fare any better in an increasingly combative geopolitical environment if, as seems likely, a candidate of their choosing wins a federal election due at some point this year.

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