It takes a huge amount of capability, technology and firepower to defeat ballistic missiles – meaning a tit-for-tat air war would favour Israel, backed by the US, over Iran.
The head of the UK armed forces told Sky News over the summer that he does not believe any of the UK’s opponents – including Tehran, Moscow and Beijing – would be able to defeat the scale of attack that Iran first launched towards Israel in April.
“I think the US leadership and the proficiency that we have with our allies is at a level above our potential foes,” Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said in an interview.
That attack in April involved more than 100 ballistic missiles, nearly 200 drones and tens of cruise missiles – which were largely defeated.
Israel and the United States played by far the biggest role in blasting them out of the sky but the UK and a number of other allies also offered support.
Image: A battery of Israel’s Iron Dome defence missile system. Pic: AP
This time around, the Iranian military fired almost twice as many ballistic missiles – the hardest type of weapon to intercept because of the speed they can travel at.
But Israel said most of the projectiles were again intercepted in an operation once more led by Israeli and US forces.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:53
‘I’ve never seen anything like it’
While some of the projectiles did penetrate the defences, the damage was seemingly limited.
Advertisement
It is an outcome that the US in particular will be hoping might limit the size of the Israeli retaliation.
This is what happened in April when the Netanyahu government was urged to “take the win”.
But Israel looks to be in no mood to compromise as its forces exploit the momentum from more than two weeks of punishing attacks against Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed paramilitary force in Lebanon, including the killing of its leader, which part-prompted the Iranian missile strike.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:41
Iran’s attack on Israel
Should the Israelis – as anticipated – launch an air attack on Iran, the damage that the Iranian regime would incur would likely be a lot bigger than what Israel absorbed unless the regime too is able to muster up some kind of coalition with its allies, principally Russia.
That seems highly unlikely given Russian forces will want to preserve their air defences to protect their own skies from increasing strikes by Ukraine – although the Russian government has been supplying Iran with increasingly sophisticated air defence systems, reportedly including the S-400, which is a step up from the Russian S-300 that Iran already operates.
Image: Apparent remains of a ballistic missile lying in the desert, after the attack by Iran on Israel. Pic: Reuters
Image: Pic: Reuters
The frailties in Iran’s own ability to defend its skies were exposed in January 2020 when a Revolutionary Guards air defence unit mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger aircraft, killing all 176 people on board.
The error happened during a previous time of regional tensions when Iran was bracing for possible US retaliation to an Iranian attack against US forces in Iraq.
Air defence like a ‘game of 3D chequers’
The task of air defence is high-pressure and hugely complex.
It relies on a layered set of defences that complement each other, and need to be closely coordinated, while involving rapid decision-making and action.
“Early radar and satellite warning is key,” said a former senior Royal Air Force officer.
Image: Israeli Iron Dome air defence system fires to intercept rockets that were launched from Lebanon. Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
Images and movement picked up by satellite and radar are then used to identify possible threats, track them and work out if they are friendly, hostile or still unknown.
Next, commanders must prioritise the hostile threats, before instructing the appropriate air defence team to open fire.
Different threats require varying types of air defence systems, from short-range ground-based weapons to longer-range ones, with aircraft also able to play a role.
“So, a game of 3D chequers – putting in appropriate blocking pieces,” the former RAF officer said.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:51
How is Iran involved with Hezbollah?
Ballistic missiles are typically countered by large ground or sea-based air defence platforms that can even destroy the missile while it is out of the Earth’s atmosphere – which is almost certainly what will have happened to chunks of the incoming Iranian arsenal.
I watched some of the intercepts high up in the sky above northern Israel – they could well have been exoatmospheric (outside the Earth’s atmosphere).
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:59
Missiles rain down on Jerusalem
Adding to the complexity of the challenge of shooting down incoming projectiles is Iran’s geography.
Geographically, it is a much bigger country than Israel, meaning finite air defence systems will only be able to guard the most important people and sites – in particular nuclear facilities.
On the flip side, the distance between Iran and Israel creates difficulties for the attacking force.
Israel has a far more sophisticated air force than the Iranians so may well seek to strike Iran with cruise missiles and other bombs launched from jets rather than ballistic missiles.
But they will need to fly more than 1,000 miles to hit their targets, laden with bombs and refuelling multiple times in the air – a mission that will be impossible to hide in advance.
Yet this is a mission Israel will have trained for.
It might well be just a matter of time until its aircraft fly the sortie for real.
Elon Musk is already the world’s richest man, but today he could take a giant step towards becoming the world’s first trillionaire.
Shareholders at Tesla are voting on a pay deal for their chief executive that is unlike anything corporate America has ever seen.
The package would grant Musk, who already has a net worth of more than $400bn, around 425 million shares in the company.
That would net him about $1trn (£760bn) and, perhaps more importantly to Musk, it would tighten his grip on the company by raising his stake from 15% to almost 30%.
The board, which has been making its case to retail investors with a series of videos and digital ads, has a simple message: Tesla is at a turning point.
Image: Musk onstage during an event for Tesla in Shanghai, China. Pic: Reuters
Yes, it wants to sell millions of cars, but it also wants to be a pioneer in robotaxis, AI-driven humanoid robots, and autonomous driving software. At this moment, it needs its visionary leader motivated and fully on board.
Musk has served his warning shot. Late last month, he wrote on X: “Tesla is worth more than all other automotive companies combined. Which of those CEOs would you like to run Tesla? It won’t be me.”
Not everyone is buying it, however.
With so much of his personal wealth tied up in Tesla, would Musk really walk away?
Image: Musk poses after his company’s initial public offering at the NASDAQ market in New York on 29 June 2010. Pic: Reuters
Bad for the brand?
Others see his continued presence and rising influence as a risk. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, which owns 1.1% of the company (making it a top 10 shareholder), has already declared it will vote against the deal. It cited concerns about “the award’s size, dilution, and lack of mitigation of key person risk”.
Several major US pension funds have followed suit. In an open letter published last month, they warned: “The board’s relentless pursuit of keeping its chief executive has damaged Tesla’s reputation.”
They also criticised the board for allowing Musk to pursue other ventures. They said he was overcommitted and distracted as a result. Signatories of that letter included the state treasurers of Nevada, New Mexico, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Colorado, and the comptrollers of Maryland and New York City.
All of them Democrats. Republicans have been more favourable. There is a political slant to this.
The signatories’ concerns with his “other ventures” no doubt include the time Musk spent dabbling in right-wing politics with the Republican inner circle. That made him a polarising figure and, to an extent, Tesla too.
Image: Elon Musk, who’s been close to Donald Trump, boards Air Force One in New Jersey. Pic: Reuters
Pay packet dwarfs rivals
Combine this with a mixed sales performance and a volatile share price, and some are wondering whether the carmaker has lost its way under his leadership.
Irrespective of performance, for some, the existence of billionaires – let alone trillionaires – can never be justified. Some may also ask why Musk is worth so much more than the leaders of Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, or Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company by market capitalisation.
Nvidia‘s chief executive, Jensen Huang, received $49.9m (£37.9m) this fiscal year. So, how has Tesla come up with these numbers? Why is Musk’s pay so out of kilter with the benchmark? Does the company have a corporate governance problem?
The courts have suggested it might. Last year, a Delaware court took the view that Tesla’s board members, which include Musk’s brother Kimbal, were not fully independent when agreeing to a $56bn (£42.6bn) pay packet back in 2017.
Image: Jensen Huang has defended the AI sector. Pic: Reuters
The Delaware Supreme Court is now reviewing the case. It is a reminder that even if Musk meets his targets, a similar fate could befall the current package.
The Tesla board is holding firm, however. Robyn Denholm, the company’s chair, told The New York Times: “He doesn’t get any compensation if he doesn’t deliver,” adding that Musk “does things that further humankind”.
Tesla’s valuation is tied up in its promise to deliver revolutionary AI and robotics products that will change the world. Those ambitions, which include robots that can look after children, are lofty. Some would call them unrealistic, but the board is adamant that if they are to become a reality, only Musk can make it happen.
Under the deal, Musk would receive no salary or cash bonus. Instead, he would collect shares as Tesla’s value grows. To unlock the full package, he would have to increase the current market valuation six times to $8.5trn (£6.47trn). For context, that’s almost twice that of Nvidia.
There are other hurdles. The company would have to sell 20 million additional electric vehicles, achieve 10 million subscriptions to its self-driving software on average over three months, deploy one million robotaxis on average over the same period, sell one million AI-powered robots, and boost adjusted earnings 24-fold to $400bn (£304bn).
They are ambitious targets, but Musk has defied the sceptics before.
A driver has knocked down several people on the French island of Ile d’Oleron.
Two people are in intensive care following the incident and a man has been arrested, French interior minister Laurent Nunez said.
Several others were injured after the motorist struck pedestrians and cyclists, he added.
Thibault Brechkoff, the mayor of Dolus-d’Oleron, told BFMTV the suspect shouted “Allahu Akbar” (Arabic for God is Greatest) when he was detained.
Datawrapper
This content is provided by Datawrapper, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Datawrapper cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Datawrapper cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Datawrapper cookies for this session only.
Arnaud Laraize, the public prosecutor in La Rochelle, told the Sud Ouest newspaper the 35-year-old suspect “resisted arrest” and was “subdued using a stun gun”.
He said the suspect was known for minor offences such as theft, adding he was not on a list of people considered a threat to national security.
Pedestrians and cyclists were hit on a road between Dolus d’Oleron and Saint-Pierre d’Oleron, he added.
Follow the World
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
At least 66 people have died after Typhoon Kalmaegi struck the Philippines, as footage emerges showing the scale of destruction.
A further 26 people have been reported missing, half of them in Cebu, where floods and mudslides killed at least 49 people, the Office of Civil Defence said.
Six crew members of a military helicopter were also killed when it crashed on the island of Mindanao, where it was carrying out a humanitarian disaster response mission, according to the military.
The powerful storm, locally named Tino, made landfall early on Tuesday and lashed the country with sustained winds of 87mph and gusts of up to 121mph.
Image: Drone footage shows wrecked homes after heavy flooding in Cebu province. Pic: Reuters
Image: Some communities have been wiped out. Pic: AP
‘State of calamity’ in Cebu
Several people were trapped on their roofs by floodwaters in the coastal town of Liloan in Cebu, said Gwendolyn Pang, secretary-general of the Philippine Red Cross.
She said in the city of Mandaune, also in Cebu, floodwaters were “up to the level of heads of people”, adding that several cars were submerged in floods or floated in another community in Cebu.
Cebu, a province of more than 2.4 million people, was still recovering from a 6.9 magnitude earthquake on 30 September, which left at least 79 people dead.
A state of calamity has been declared in the province to allow authorities to disburse emergency funds more rapidly.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:44
Entire towns flooded in the Philippines after typhoon
Image: Damaged vehicles after flooding in Cebu City. Pic: AP
Image: Pic: Reuters
Fierce winds either ripped off roofs or damaged around 300 mostly rural shanties on the island community of Homonhon in Eastern Samar, but there were no reported deaths or injuries, mayor Annaliza Gonzales Kwan said.
“There was no flooding at all, but just strong wind,” she said. “We’re okay. We’ll make this through. We’ve been through a lot, and bigger than this.”
Image: Red Cross staff rescue people and dogs. Pic: Reuters
Image: Pic: AP
Hnndreds of thousands evacuated
Before Kalmaegi’s landfall, officials said more than 387,000 people had been evacuated to safer ground in eastern and central Philippine provinces.
The combination of Kalmaegi and a shear line brought heavy rains and strong winds across the Visayas and nearby areas, state weather agency PAGASA said.
A shear line is the boundary between two different air masses such as warm and cold air.
Image: Pic: AP
Image: A boy with a goldfish he caught after a nearby fish farm flooded. Pic: AP
Vietnam gears up for storm
The Vietnamese government has said it was preparing for the worst-case scenario as it braced for the impact of Kalmaegi.
The typhoon is forecast to reach Vietnam’s coasts on Friday morning. Several areas have already suffered heavy flooding over the last week, leaving at least 40 people.
Kalmaegi hit the Philippines as it continues to recover from several disasters, including earthquakes and severe weather over recent months.
Around 20 typhoons and storms hit the Philippines each year, and the country is also often struck by earthquakes and has more than a dozen active volcanoes.