It takes a huge amount of capability, technology and firepower to defeat ballistic missiles – meaning a tit-for-tat air war would favour Israel, backed by the US, over Iran.
The head of the UK armed forces told Sky News over the summer that he does not believe any of the UK’s opponents – including Tehran, Moscow and Beijing – would be able to defeat the scale of attack that Iran first launched towards Israel in April.
“I think the US leadership and the proficiency that we have with our allies is at a level above our potential foes,” Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said in an interview.
That attack in April involved more than 100 ballistic missiles, nearly 200 drones and tens of cruise missiles – which were largely defeated.
Israel and the United States played by far the biggest role in blasting them out of the sky but the UK and a number of other allies also offered support.
This time around, the Iranian military fired almost twice as many ballistic missiles – the hardest type of weapon to intercept because of the speed they can travel at.
But Israel said most of the projectiles were again intercepted in an operation once more led by Israeli and US forces.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:53
‘I’ve never seen anything like it’
While some of the projectiles did penetrate the defences, the damage was seemingly limited.
Advertisement
It is an outcome that the US in particular will be hoping might limit the size of the Israeli retaliation.
This is what happened in April when the Netanyahu government was urged to “take the win”.
But Israel looks to be in no mood to compromise as its forces exploit the momentum from more than two weeks of punishing attacks against Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed paramilitary force in Lebanon, including the killing of its leader, which part-prompted the Iranian missile strike.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:41
Iran’s attack on Israel
Should the Israelis – as anticipated – launch an air attack on Iran, the damage that the Iranian regime would incur would likely be a lot bigger than what Israel absorbed unless the regime too is able to muster up some kind of coalition with its allies, principally Russia.
That seems highly unlikely given Russian forces will want to preserve their air defences to protect their own skies from increasing strikes by Ukraine – although the Russian government has been supplying Iran with increasingly sophisticated air defence systems, reportedly including the S-400, which is a step up from the Russian S-300 that Iran already operates.
The frailties in Iran’s own ability to defend its skies were exposed in January 2020 when a Revolutionary Guards air defence unit mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger aircraft, killing all 176 people on board.
The error happened during a previous time of regional tensions when Iran was bracing for possible US retaliation to an Iranian attack against US forces in Iraq.
Air defence like a ‘game of 3D chequers’
The task of air defence is high-pressure and hugely complex.
It relies on a layered set of defences that complement each other, and need to be closely coordinated, while involving rapid decision-making and action.
“Early radar and satellite warning is key,” said a former senior Royal Air Force officer.
Images and movement picked up by satellite and radar are then used to identify possible threats, track them and work out if they are friendly, hostile or still unknown.
Next, commanders must prioritise the hostile threats, before instructing the appropriate air defence team to open fire.
Different threats require varying types of air defence systems, from short-range ground-based weapons to longer-range ones, with aircraft also able to play a role.
“So, a game of 3D chequers – putting in appropriate blocking pieces,” the former RAF officer said.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:51
How is Iran involved with Hezbollah?
Ballistic missiles are typically countered by large ground or sea-based air defence platforms that can even destroy the missile while it is out of the Earth’s atmosphere – which is almost certainly what will have happened to chunks of the incoming Iranian arsenal.
I watched some of the intercepts high up in the sky above northern Israel – they could well have been exoatmospheric (outside the Earth’s atmosphere).
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:59
Missiles rain down on Jerusalem
Adding to the complexity of the challenge of shooting down incoming projectiles is Iran’s geography.
Geographically, it is a much bigger country than Israel, meaning finite air defence systems will only be able to guard the most important people and sites – in particular nuclear facilities.
On the flip side, the distance between Iran and Israel creates difficulties for the attacking force.
Israel has a far more sophisticated air force than the Iranians so may well seek to strike Iran with cruise missiles and other bombs launched from jets rather than ballistic missiles.
But they will need to fly more than 1,000 miles to hit their targets, laden with bombs and refuelling multiple times in the air – a mission that will be impossible to hide in advance.
Yet this is a mission Israel will have trained for.
It might well be just a matter of time until its aircraft fly the sortie for real.
“We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against military facilities of the countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities,” Mr Putin said in a TV address.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:35
‘Tense new phase in Ukraine war’
President Putin responded on Thursday by saying his military had tested a new intermediate-range missile in a strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.
The Russian leader called it the Oreshnik, Russian for hazelnut tree, and said air defences wouldn’t be able to destroy it as it travels 10 times the speed of sound.
Ukraine said earlier that a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) might have been used on Dnipro, but the Pentagon said it believed it was an experimental medium-range weapon.
Advertisement
It said Russia had given notice of the launch through nuclear risk reduction channels.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:49
Putin fires ‘new type of missile’
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, said on Thursday night the use of a new missile was a “clear and severe escalation”, the second this year after North Korean troops were sent to bolster Russian forces.
Mr Zelenskyy urged a stronger response from allies and said on X that the Russian leader was “spitting in the face of those in the world who genuinely want peace to be restored”.
According to public broadcaster Suspilne, a Ukrainian parliamentary sitting scheduled for Friday has been postponed over security concerns, with no more planned until December.
Military experts say modern ICBMs and intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) are extremely difficult to intercept.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Andrei Kelin said: “Absolutely, Britain and the UK is now directly involved in this war, because this firing cannot happen without NATO staff, British staff as well.”
He called it a “deliberate cheating of us” and said he had received multiple assurances the Storm Shadows would only be used inside Ukrainian territory.
However, Russia has long used Iranian-made drones to attack Ukrainian cities.
‘An extremely tense new phase’
Vladimir Putin’s address following the attack in Dnipro today feels like a very significant moment in the war, and there are a few reasons for that.
Firstly, the weapon itself. A hypersonic, non-nuclear ballistic missile. The Russian president claims it cannot be intercepted by existing missile defence systems.
Secondly, the threat. He implied Russia could attack British or American military facilities. That’s new too.
Putin’s justification is that the UK and the US are now directly involved because he claims it’s not just weapons and permission they’re giving to Ukraine, but satellite capabilities and operational aspects too.
And thirdly, the setting. Vladimir Putin chose to give a televised address, which is something reserved for important, national moments. For example, that’s how he addressed the public following the Moscow terror attack on a concert hall in March.
And he did the same, of course, when he launched the full-scale invasion which started this crisis nearly three years ago.
So the setting of his address, its substance and the new hardware he was trumpeting, all add up to what I think will be an extremely tense new phase in the war.
The ambassador said the US and UK move “seriously escalates the situation” and the West should carefully consider Russia’s new rules for using nuclear weapons – as underestimating the risk of escalation is “dangerous”.
Many have dismissed the move as empty sabre rattling, but Russia’s ambassador told Sky News he hoped the change “would be carefully considered by Western experts”.
Russia’s defence ministry also claimed on Thursday to have shot down two British-made Storm Shadow missiles, six HIMARS rockets, and 67 drones.
Experts believe the use of Western missiles inside Russia is unlikely to change the course of the war but could put Russian forces in a more vulnerable position and complicate logistics.
A tall man emerged from an array of gym equipment, walking towards me, slightly swaying as his prosthetic leg flexed and stepped in time with his natural one.
His right arm was missing, and his left was a smooth black prosthesis arm with his hands and fingers clenched in a fist.
He was introduced to me as Anton. I wasn’t sure how to greet him other than to say hello.
He saw my hesitation, and smiling he raised his left arm to shake my hand, his fingers opening and closing around my hand as we observed a customary gesture of greeting – a handshake.
His handshake was gentle and completely natural. I was simply amazed. I’ve never seen or experienced anything like it.
“Wow, it works,” I said.
“Yes, it does,” he replied with a smirk, and then carried on walking down the corridor.
More on Kyiv
Related Topics:
This was to be a day of incredible experiences.
We are in the Tytanova Rehabilitation Centre in Kyiv. Much of it is a large gymnasium kitted out with state-of-the-art equipment designed for amputees to keep fit and rehabilitate.
Advertisement
The amputees are all soldiers injured in the war with Russia. These men may never fight again, but they’re in a renewed battle to rebuild their lives, and here they’re being helped with extraordinary technology.
It’s called osseointegration – a titanium implant that is connected to the bone of the patient and the prosthetic arm or leg clicks on to that.
But this is the remarkable bit. The nervous system in their limb is gone so they learn to send messages to their muscles and their new arm or leg comes alive, following instructions from their brain.
The technology was first used in Ukrainea year ago and can be used on all limbs.
We meet Oleksandr Solomiany, 48, who lost his right arm last December in the battle of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. Before the war, he was a tech entrepreneur specialising in the environment.
Oleksandr is still learning how to use his new arm. He walked us through a parking lot and into another building for another training session.
This isn’t a physical training session though, it’s a mental one. He will be practising how to teach his brain to command his muscles to move his bionic arm.
It’s his third session and he says it will take at least two or three more months before he gains the skills to fully operate it.
Oleksandr sits down and takes off his t-shirt, he then removes his bionic arm so that sensory wires can be attached to his amputated arm and to the chest and back muscles surrounding it.
The training session today will be with a bionic prosthetic arm that is not physically attached to him, only wired into him.
“What are you trying to do?” I ask him while he looks at a screen, concentrating hard.
“I imagine that I close my arm and rotate,” he tells me while moving the prosthetic using his brain and chest muscles.
Oleksandr’s trainer Yaroslav Patsukevych is a biomedical engineer who volunteers here.
He explains to me: “You can fool the system to overwrite the muscles that you usually use with your hands, for example, to teach the chest muscles to do the same thing.
“When the patient contracts his muscle, this prosthesis calibrates with his brain and recreates this command with the prosthesis.”
I asked Yaroslav where this prosthesis comes from. He told me the hand is made in Britain, the arm is made in America, and the technology is Swedish.
And the man – I think to myself – is Ukrainian.
For Oleksandr, even though this is mental training it is physically draining. I ask him if it’s a big experience for him, realising that he can actually have an arm that works.
“It’s the first stage of [a] long, long way in my life. It’s only my first prosthesis and technologies never stop. I will expect another technology, like chip in the brain, or something else,” he replies.
Oleksandr leads a very active life and has no regrets about his battle injury – the focus is now on the future.
“This arm helps me with my routine, with my everyday tasks. I feel better with this arm, like normal people, like a normal man.”
The osseointegration surgery costs £20,000 for each lost limb, while a prosthetic arm or leg costs £80,000.
The founder of Tytanova Rehab, Viacheslav Zaporozhets, is a millionaire businessman who wanted to help with the war effort. He fundraises money to help more and more men, and he says the beneficial effects on the amputees are immediate.
“I’ll tell you this, we’re bringing them back to life, even in a psychological sense,” Viacheslav Zaporozhets says.
“I always say, you’re not broken. We’ll teach you how to drive, even how to swim.
“From day one, we demonstrate this. When a new patient arrives, a veteran greets them and shows them what they’ve learned to do.”
He and his organisation don’t just rehabilitate the injured, they also evacuate them from the frontlines.
With their 22 ambulances, they’ve saved the lives of over 30,000 men since the start of the war, bringing them to safety.
The figure is, frankly, mind-blowing.
This war has claimed the lives of huge numbers of fighting men, but the figure itself is not published.
But we do know that the number of living casualties will be much, much higher, and these “bionic men” are just a fraction of them.
Arrest warrants have been issued for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence secretary Yoav Gallant by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
The warrants are for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity related to the war in Gaza that Israel launched following the 7 October attacks by Hamas.
The prime minister’s office said the warrants against him and Gallant were “anti-semitic” and said Israel “rejects with disgust the absurd and false actions”.
Another warrant was issued for the arrest of Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al Masrifor alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Al Masri, also known as Mohammed Deif, was the mastermind behind the 7 October attacks.
Neither Israel nor the US are members of the ICC. Israel has rejected the court’s jurisdiction and denies committing war crimes in Gaza.
Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett said the warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant were a “mark of shame” for the ICC.
The court originally said it was seeking arrest warrants for the three men in May for the alleged crimes and today announced that it had rejected challenges by Israel and issued warrants of arrest.
In its update, the ICC said it found “reasonable grounds to believe” that Netanyahu and Gallant “bear criminal responsibility” for alleged crimes.
These, the court said, include “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts”.
The ICC also said it has issued an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Al Masri, saying it has “reasonable grounds to believe” that he is responsible for crimes against humanity including murder, extermination, torture, rape, as well as war crimes including taking hostages.
Discussing the 7 October attacks, the court said: “In light of the coordinated killings of members of civilians at several separate locations, the Chamber also found that the conduct took place as part of a mass killing of members of the civilian population, and it therefore concluded that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the crime against humanity of extermination was committed.”
In its statement, the ICC said the prosecution was not in a position to determine whether Al Masri is dead or alive, so was issuing the arrest warrant.
The court previously said it was seeking an arrest warrant for Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas who was subsequently killed in July.
This will never leave Netanyahu
Three arrest warrants have been issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) but the two most significant are those against Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant.
The court in their statement said that they have reasonable grounds to believe that those two men, have been carrying out the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution and other inhumane acts.
Ever since the arrest warrants were first sought there have been a lot of legal challenges. But the court has rejected all that and has now issued these arrest warrants.
So what does it mean? Well, practically, it would mean that Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant couldn’t travel to any state that is a signatory of the ICC – about 120 countries around the world, including the UK and many European countries.
Were Netanyahu to travel to any of those countries, he should be arrested by the police forces of those countries. And it’ll be very interesting to see what Sir Keir Starmer’s reaction is to this.
But the US, Israel’s closest ally, is not a signatory of the ICC. I think Netanyahu will have support on the other side of the Atlantic.
Also, these ICC arrest warrants don’t always get carried out. We saw President Vladimir Putin, who had an arrest warrant issued for him after the invasion of Ukraine, travel to Mongolia a couple of months ago and nothing was done about that.
But in terms of the reputations of Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, in terms of that legacy, they are now wanted suspects, wanted to be put on trial for war crimes. And it is a label that will never leave them.