It takes a huge amount of capability, technology and firepower to defeat ballistic missiles – meaning a tit-for-tat air war would favour Israel, backed by the US, over Iran.
The head of the UK armed forces told Sky News over the summer that he does not believe any of the UK’s opponents – including Tehran, Moscow and Beijing – would be able to defeat the scale of attack that Iran first launched towards Israel in April.
“I think the US leadership and the proficiency that we have with our allies is at a level above our potential foes,” Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said in an interview.
That attack in April involved more than 100 ballistic missiles, nearly 200 drones and tens of cruise missiles – which were largely defeated.
Israel and the United States played by far the biggest role in blasting them out of the sky but the UK and a number of other allies also offered support.
Image: A battery of Israel’s Iron Dome defence missile system. Pic: AP
This time around, the Iranian military fired almost twice as many ballistic missiles – the hardest type of weapon to intercept because of the speed they can travel at.
But Israel said most of the projectiles were again intercepted in an operation once more led by Israeli and US forces.
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3:53
‘I’ve never seen anything like it’
While some of the projectiles did penetrate the defences, the damage was seemingly limited.
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It is an outcome that the US in particular will be hoping might limit the size of the Israeli retaliation.
This is what happened in April when the Netanyahu government was urged to “take the win”.
But Israel looks to be in no mood to compromise as its forces exploit the momentum from more than two weeks of punishing attacks against Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed paramilitary force in Lebanon, including the killing of its leader, which part-prompted the Iranian missile strike.
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1:41
Iran’s attack on Israel
Should the Israelis – as anticipated – launch an air attack on Iran, the damage that the Iranian regime would incur would likely be a lot bigger than what Israel absorbed unless the regime too is able to muster up some kind of coalition with its allies, principally Russia.
That seems highly unlikely given Russian forces will want to preserve their air defences to protect their own skies from increasing strikes by Ukraine – although the Russian government has been supplying Iran with increasingly sophisticated air defence systems, reportedly including the S-400, which is a step up from the Russian S-300 that Iran already operates.
Image: Apparent remains of a ballistic missile lying in the desert, after the attack by Iran on Israel. Pic: Reuters
Image: Pic: Reuters
The frailties in Iran’s own ability to defend its skies were exposed in January 2020 when a Revolutionary Guards air defence unit mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger aircraft, killing all 176 people on board.
The error happened during a previous time of regional tensions when Iran was bracing for possible US retaliation to an Iranian attack against US forces in Iraq.
Air defence like a ‘game of 3D chequers’
The task of air defence is high-pressure and hugely complex.
It relies on a layered set of defences that complement each other, and need to be closely coordinated, while involving rapid decision-making and action.
“Early radar and satellite warning is key,” said a former senior Royal Air Force officer.
Image: Israeli Iron Dome air defence system fires to intercept rockets that were launched from Lebanon. Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
Images and movement picked up by satellite and radar are then used to identify possible threats, track them and work out if they are friendly, hostile or still unknown.
Next, commanders must prioritise the hostile threats, before instructing the appropriate air defence team to open fire.
Different threats require varying types of air defence systems, from short-range ground-based weapons to longer-range ones, with aircraft also able to play a role.
“So, a game of 3D chequers – putting in appropriate blocking pieces,” the former RAF officer said.
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0:51
How is Iran involved with Hezbollah?
Ballistic missiles are typically countered by large ground or sea-based air defence platforms that can even destroy the missile while it is out of the Earth’s atmosphere – which is almost certainly what will have happened to chunks of the incoming Iranian arsenal.
I watched some of the intercepts high up in the sky above northern Israel – they could well have been exoatmospheric (outside the Earth’s atmosphere).
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0:59
Missiles rain down on Jerusalem
Adding to the complexity of the challenge of shooting down incoming projectiles is Iran’s geography.
Geographically, it is a much bigger country than Israel, meaning finite air defence systems will only be able to guard the most important people and sites – in particular nuclear facilities.
On the flip side, the distance between Iran and Israel creates difficulties for the attacking force.
Israel has a far more sophisticated air force than the Iranians so may well seek to strike Iran with cruise missiles and other bombs launched from jets rather than ballistic missiles.
But they will need to fly more than 1,000 miles to hit their targets, laden with bombs and refuelling multiple times in the air – a mission that will be impossible to hide in advance.
Yet this is a mission Israel will have trained for.
It might well be just a matter of time until its aircraft fly the sortie for real.
The assassination attempt on a former Russian spy was authorised by Vladimir Putin, who is “morally responsible” for the death of a woman poisoned by the nerve agent used in the attack, a public inquiry has found.
The chairman, Lord Hughes, found there were “failings” in the management of Sergei Skripal, 74, who was a member of Russian military intelligence, the GRU, before coming to the UK in 2010 on a prisoner exchange after being convicted of spying for Britain.
But he found the assessment that he wasn’t at “significant risk” of assassination was not “unreasonable” at the time of the attack in Salisbury on 4 March 2018, which could only have been avoided by hiding him with a completely new identity.
Mr Skripal and his daughter Yulia, 41, who was also poisoned, were left seriously ill, along with then police officer Nick Bailey, who was sent to search their home, but they all survived.
Image: Sergei Skripal and Yulia Skripal.
Pic: Shutterstock
Dawn Sturgess, 44, died on 8 July, just over a week after unwittingly spraying herself with novichok given to her by her partner, Charlie Rowley, 52, in a perfume bottle in nearby Amesbury on 30 June 2018. Mr Rowley was left seriously ill but survived.
In his 174-page report, following last year’s seven-week inquiry, costing more than £8m, former Supreme Court judge Lord Hughes said she received “entirely appropriate” medical care but her condition was “unsurvivable” from a very early stage.
The inquiry found GRU officers using the aliases Alexander Petrov, 46, and Ruslan Boshirov, 47, had brought the Nina Ricci bottle containing the novichok to Salisbury after arriving in London from Moscow with a third agent known as Sergey Fedotov to kill Mr Skripal on 2 March.
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Image: L-R Suspects who used the names of Sergey Fedotov, Ruslan Boshirov and Alexander Petrov. Pics: UK Counter Terrorism Policing
The report said it was likely the same bottle Petrov and Boshirov used to apply the military-grade nerve agent to the handle of Mr Skripal’s front door before it was “recklessly discarded”.
“They can have had no regard to the hazard thus created, of the death of, or serious injury to, an uncountable number of innocent people,” it said.
It is “impossible to say” where Mr Rowley found the bottle, but was likely within a few days of it being abandoned on 4 March, meaning there is “clear causative link” with the death of mother-of-three Ms Sturgess.
Image: Novichok was in perfume bottle. Pic: Reuters
Lord Hughes said he was sure the three GRU agents “were acting on instructions”, adding: “I have concluded that the operation to assassinate Sergei Skripal must have been authorised at the highest level, by President Putin.
“I therefore conclude that those involved in the assassination attempt (not only Petrov, Boshirov and Fedotov, but also those who sent them, and anyone else giving authorisation or knowing assistance in Russia or elsewhere) were morally responsible for Dawn Sturgess’s death,” he said.
Russian ambassador summonsed
After the publication of the report, the government announced the GRU has been sanctioned in its entirety, and the Russian Ambassador has been summonsed to the Foreign Office to answer for Russia’s ongoing campaign of alleged hostile activity against the UK.
Sir Keir Starmer said the findings “are a grave reminder of the Kremlin’s disregard for innocent lives” and that Ms Sturgess’s “needless” death was a tragedy that “will forever be a reminder of Russia’s reckless aggression”.
“The UK will always stand up to Putin’s brutal regime and call out his murderous machine for what it is,” the prime minister said.
He said deploying the “highly toxic nerve agent in a busy city centre was an astonishingly reckless act” with an “entirely foreseeable” risk that others beyond the intended target would be killed or injured.
The inquiry heard a total of 87 people presented at A&E.
Image: Pic AP
Lord Hughes said there was a decision taken not to issue advice to the public not to pick anything up which they hadn’t dropped, which was a “reasonable conclusion” at the time, so as not to cause “widespread panic”.
He also said there had been no need for training beyond specialist medics before the “completely unexpected use of a nerve agent in an English city”.
After the initial attack, wider training was “appropriate” and was given but should have been more widely circulated.
In a statement following the publication of his report, Lord Hughes said Ms Sturgess’s death was “needless and arbitrary”, while the circumstances are “clear but quite extraordinary”.
“She was the entirely innocent victim of the cruel and cynical acts of others,” he said.
Image: ‘We can finally put her to peace’ . Pic: Met Police/PA
‘We can have Dawn back now’
Speaking after the report was published, Ms Sturgess’s father, Stanley Sturgess, said: “We can have Dawn back now. She’s been public for seven years. We can finally put her to peace.”
In a statement, her family said they felt “vindicated” by the report, which recognised how Wiltshire police wrongly characterised Ms Sturgess as a drug user.
But they said: “Today’s report has left us with some answers, but also a number of unanswered questions.
“We have always wanted to ensure that what happened to Dawn will not happen to others; that lessons should be learned and that meaningful changes should be made.
“The report contains no recommendations. That is a matter of real concern. There should, there must, be reflection and real change.”
Wiltshire Police Chief Constable Catherine Roper admitted the pain of Ms Sturgess’s family was “compounded by mistakes made” by the force, adding: “For this, I am truly sorry.”
Russia has denied involvement
The Russian Embassy has firmly denied any connection between Russia and the attack on the Skripals.
But the chairman dismissed Russia’s explanation that the Salisbury and Amesbury poisonings were the result of a scheme devised by the UK authorities to blame Russia, and the claims of Petrov and Borisov in a television interview that they were sightseeing.
The inquiry chairman said the evidence of a Russian state attack was “overwhelming” and was designed not only as a revenge attack against Mr Skripal, but amounted to a “public statement” that Russia “will act decisively in its own interests”.
Lord Hughes found “some features of the management” of Mr Skripal “could and should have been improved”, including insufficient regular written risk assessments.
But although there was “inevitably” some risk of harm at Russia’s hands, the analysis that it was not likely was “reasonable”, he said.
“There is no sufficient basis for concluding that there ought to have been assessed to be an enhanced risk to him of lethal attack on British soil, such as to call for security measures,” such as living under a new identity or at a secret address, the chairman said.
He added that CCTV cameras, alarms or hidden bugs inside Mr Skripal’s house might have been possible but wouldn’t have prevented the “professionally mounted attack with a nerve agent”.
Sky News has approached the Russian Embassy for comment on the report.
Something concrete and unarguable has emerged from the diplomatic turbulence generated by Donald Trump’s attempts to end the war in Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine has become Europe’s war – in fact, it is unlikely to be America’s problem for long.
The Trump administration’s 20-something-point peace plan, as shepherded by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, is going nowhere.
Image: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the European Union leaders’ summit in Brussels, Belgium. Pic: Reuters
When presented with the proposal on Tuesday, a Russian negotiator said President Putin made, “no secret of our critical and even negative attitude toward a number of elements.”
But the words of the Russian leader himself are more instructive. In a belligerent speech made on the same day, he threatened to “cut Ukraine off from the sea entirely” in retaliation to a series of attacks on Russian-linked oil tankers.
This is not a man thinking about doing a deal. Putin is the obvious obstacle.
None of which will have come as any surprise to leaders in Europe and the UK, who did what they typically do when the situation looks grim.
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Image: Servicemen of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Pic: Reuters
Britain, France, Ireland, Germany and others have been issuing lofty declarations of the “we’ll support Ukraine as long as it takes,” variety.
But this time it is different. European leaders are going to have to treat Ukraine like the emergency it is – or face the consequences.
Presently, they occupy a position that many see as absurd.
Europe, including Britain, bankroll the Ukrainian government. Funding which was split down the middle with the Biden administration has been assumed by Europe in full. Furthermore, the Europeans pay for all American weaponry through a NATO facility called PURL.
Image: Firefighters put out a fire after a drone hit a multi-storey residential building during Russia’s night drone attack in Kyiv. Pic: AP
Thus, Europe has got skin in the game – they are paying the bills. But where are they sitting at the negotiation table?
They are not there at all. The Russians do not want them, and the US does not seem particularly keen. When US secretary of state Marco Rubio met a Ukrainian delegation to discuss the peace plan in Geneva, he said he did not know anything about European counter-proposals
“It’s extraordinary that Europe is picking up the bill but struggles to make itself heard,” says Marc De Vore, of St Andrews University. “It shows the lack of vision, coordination and leadership across the continent.”
The former foreign minister of Lithuania, Gabrielius Landsbergis, is utterly exasperated by Europe’s ineffectiveness.
Image: Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner meet with Ukrainian defence chief Rustem Umerov and his delegation in Florida. Pic: Reuters
“If you are a European leader asking your team to book you on the next flight to Washington to go talk to daddy, please don’t. Not without a plan, not cap in hand, not humiliating us all in front of the cameras at the Oval Office.
“Europe is our continent, our future is decided here, not there. We aren’t poor, we have options, we can finally decide to assist Ukraine to the full extent…”
This frustration is shared by the Ukrainians, who have begun to use a different word to describe this relationship – betrayal.
Inna Sovsun is an MP in the Ukrainian parliament. Her husband, a combat medic, is serving at the front.
Image: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy awards a Ukrainian service member, as he visits a frontline position, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Pic: Reuters
“People on the frontline feel really disappointed with the whole situation, and it does feel like betrayal.
“The challenge is much bigger than which village will be controlled by whom in Donbas. It is about, what does the future of civilisation look like? Does Russia’s barbaric version win? If you are not willing to fight for that, those values aren’t worth much, are they?”
Unsurprisingly perhaps, analysts and others are sketching out what Ukraine would look like if forced to capitulate. The idea here, is that Europe will not like what it sees.
Picture an unstable nation on Europe’s border with a proxy-Russian leader – or different groups battling for control. The population is restive, with many thousands of men both conditioned and traumatised by war. Millions of refugees seek shelter in Europe.
Image: A service member of the 125th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade with a Kalashnikov tank machine gun. Pic: Reuters
Economists have tried to put a figure on such scenarios, with one group estimating costs to Europe approaching €3tn euros in additional defence and refugee-related spending if Ukraine is seriously weakened.
For the Europeans, a test of their resolve is already at hand. The EU must agree on a plan to seize up to €210bn euros in frozen Russian assets as a means of funding the cash-strapped government in Kyiv.
The issue is legally contentious, with countries like Belgium, where much of the money is held, fretting about liability. But the Ukrainians see it as a simple question of commitment.
“Given what is at stake, there just has to be stronger political will. That is what is difficult for us to grasp. (They) say all those good things, the right things, but that doesn’t really matter much,” says Ms Sovsun.
A Palestinian anti-Hamas militia leader has been killed in the Gaza Strip, according to Israeli army radio.
Yasser Abu Shabab, the commander of the former looting gang Popular Forces, along with a large number of members from his group, and senior commander Ghassan al Duhine, reportedly fell into a well-planned ambush set by the resistance factions.
The Reuters news agency reported that Abu Shabab, the most prominent anti-Hamas clan leader in Gaza, had died of his wounds in a hospital in southern Israel. It did not say when he died.
Hamas had no comment, its Gaza spokesperson said, while Israeli authorities did not immediately make any comment.
Image: Ghassan Al Duhine, left, was the deputy commander of the Popular Forces’ military wing. Pic: Facebook
Hamas has accused Abu Shabab of collaborating with Israel, which he denied.
Sky News revealed that Abu Shabab’s Bedouin militia was smuggling vehicles into Gaza with the help of the Israeli military and an Arab-Israeli car dealer.
Popular Forces has been positioning itself as Gaza’s future government, despite denials in June that Abu Shabab had any intention of forming a government in Gaza.
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The militia said at the time that he was focused solely on providing security to aid convoys and Palestinians.
Speaking to Sky News, however, Hassan Abu Shabab, a relative and childhood friend of Yasser Abu Shabab, showed no such restraint – he talked of reforming the school curriculum and holding a referendum on normalising relations with Israel.
“We’d like to run everything,” he said.
Image: Yasser Abu Shabab (right), in a photo uploaded to his social media account. Pic: TikTok
Looting trucks and smuggling cigarettes
He said in October that the recruitment of new militias had swelled Popular Forces’ troops across Gaza to around 3,000.
The headquarters of the militia are located in a small neighbourhood in Gaza’s southern Rafah area, in territory still held by Israeli forces.
The base’s location is strategically important – it sits along the route by which aid trucks must travel when entering Gaza through the Kerem Shalom crossing, a route that aid officials have named “Looters’ Alley”.
An internal UN report, dated November 2024, identified Abu Shabab and his gang as “the most influential stakeholders behind the systematic and massive looting of convoys”.
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The UN document identified their primary source of income as smuggling cigarettes – one of the many goods which Israel has officially banned from entering Gaza. The price of individual cigarettes has at some points reached $20.
Hassan Abu Shabab admitted that the group was involved in looting trucks and smuggling cigarettes, though he said they only ever targeted commercial trucks they believed to be supplying Hamas.
He said it eventually escalated, with Hamas’s men allegedly killing his cousins in a “massacre” that left 54 people dead.
Sky News could not independently verify his claim, but there were numerous reports of deadly clashes between Abu Shabab’s men and Hamas, which declared the Popular Forces leader a wanted man.