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It takes a huge amount of capability, technology and firepower to defeat ballistic missiles – meaning a tit-for-tat air war would favour Israel, backed by the US, over Iran.

The head of the UK armed forces told Sky News over the summer that he does not believe any of the UK’s opponents – including Tehran, Moscow and Beijing – would be able to defeat the scale of attack that Iran first launched towards Israel in April.

“I think the US leadership and the proficiency that we have with our allies is at a level above our potential foes,” Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said in an interview.

Israel-Iran latest: Eight IDF soldiers killed in Lebanon

That attack in April involved more than 100 ballistic missiles, nearly 200 drones and tens of cruise missiles – which were largely defeated.

Israel and the United States played by far the biggest role in blasting them out of the sky but the UK and a number of other allies also offered support.

FILE - A battery of Israel's Iron Dome defense missile system, deployed to intercept rockets, sits in Ashkelon, southern Israel, Aug. 7, 2022. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit, File)
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A battery of Israel’s Iron Dome defence missile system. Pic: AP

This time around, the Iranian military fired almost twice as many ballistic missiles – the hardest type of weapon to intercept because of the speed they can travel at.

But Israel said most of the projectiles were again intercepted in an operation once more led by Israeli and US forces.

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‘I’ve never seen anything like it’

While some of the projectiles did penetrate the defences, the damage was seemingly limited.

It is an outcome that the US in particular will be hoping might limit the size of the Israeli retaliation.

This is what happened in April when the Netanyahu government was urged to “take the win”.

But Israel looks to be in no mood to compromise as its forces exploit the momentum from more than two weeks of punishing attacks against Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed paramilitary force in Lebanon, including the killing of its leader, which part-prompted the Iranian missile strike.

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Iran’s attack on Israel

Should the Israelis – as anticipated – launch an air attack on Iran, the damage that the Iranian regime would incur would likely be a lot bigger than what Israel absorbed unless the regime too is able to muster up some kind of coalition with its allies, principally Russia.

That seems highly unlikely given Russian forces will want to preserve their air defences to protect their own skies from increasing strikes by Ukraine – although the Russian government has been supplying Iran with increasingly sophisticated air defence systems, reportedly including the S-400, which is a step up from the Russian S-300 that Iran already operates.

A drone view shows people stand around apparent remains of a ballistic missile lying in the desert, following an attack by Iran on Israel, near the southern city of Arad, Israel.
Pic: Reuters
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Apparent remains of a ballistic missile lying in the desert, after the attack by Iran on Israel. Pic: Reuters

A drone view shows people stand around apparent remains of a ballistic missile lying in the desert, following an attack by Iran on Israel, near the southern city of Arad, Israel.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

The frailties in Iran’s own ability to defend its skies were exposed in January 2020 when a Revolutionary Guards air defence unit mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger aircraft, killing all 176 people on board.

The error happened during a previous time of regional tensions when Iran was bracing for possible US retaliation to an Iranian attack against US forces in Iraq.

Air defence like a ‘game of 3D chequers’

The task of air defence is high-pressure and hugely complex.

It relies on a layered set of defences that complement each other, and need to be closely coordinated, while involving rapid decision-making and action.

“Early radar and satellite warning is key,” said a former senior Royal Air Force officer.

Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept rockets that were launched from Lebanon, in northern Israel, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)
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Israeli Iron Dome air defence system fires to intercept rockets that were launched from Lebanon. Pic: AP

Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept rockets that were launched from Lebanon, in northern Israel, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)
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Pic: AP

Images and movement picked up by satellite and radar are then used to identify possible threats, track them and work out if they are friendly, hostile or still unknown.

Next, commanders must prioritise the hostile threats, before instructing the appropriate air defence team to open fire.

Different threats require varying types of air defence systems, from short-range ground-based weapons to longer-range ones, with aircraft also able to play a role.

“So, a game of 3D chequers – putting in appropriate blocking pieces,” the former RAF officer said.

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How is Iran involved with Hezbollah?

Ballistic missiles are typically countered by large ground or sea-based air defence platforms that can even destroy the missile while it is out of the Earth’s atmosphere – which is almost certainly what will have happened to chunks of the incoming Iranian arsenal.

I watched some of the intercepts high up in the sky above northern Israel – they could well have been exoatmospheric (outside the Earth’s atmosphere).

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Missiles rain down on Jerusalem

Adding to the complexity of the challenge of shooting down incoming projectiles is Iran’s geography.

Geographically, it is a much bigger country than Israel, meaning finite air defence systems will only be able to guard the most important people and sites – in particular nuclear facilities.

Read more:
Hamas has praised Iran for attack on Israel
Israel sends more troops into Lebanon
What is Iran’s new Fattah missile?

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On the flip side, the distance between Iran and Israel creates difficulties for the attacking force.

Israel has a far more sophisticated air force than the Iranians so may well seek to strike Iran with cruise missiles and other bombs launched from jets rather than ballistic missiles.

But they will need to fly more than 1,000 miles to hit their targets, laden with bombs and refuelling multiple times in the air – a mission that will be impossible to hide in advance.

Yet this is a mission Israel will have trained for.

It might well be just a matter of time until its aircraft fly the sortie for real.

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US military says eight ‘narco-terrorists’ killed in strikes on three boats in Pacific

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US military says eight 'narco-terrorists' killed in strikes on three boats in Pacific

Eight people have been killed in US military strikes on three boats it has accused of smuggling drugs in the Pacific Ocean.

The US military’s Southern Command said the strikes targeted “designated terrorist organisations” killing three “narco-terrorists” in the first vessel, two in the second boat and three in the third.

No evidence the vessels were involved in drug trafficking has been given, but a video showing the strikes on the boats was posted on social media.

Southern Command added that defence secretary Pete Hegseth ordered the strikes, and claimed intelligence confirmed the vessels were using known drug trafficking routes and engaged in drug trafficking.

The US military said it carried out strikes in the Pacific Ocean on three boats it accused of trafficking drugs. Pic: X/@Southcom
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The US military said it carried out strikes in the Pacific Ocean on three boats it accused of trafficking drugs. Pic: X/@Southcom

One of the boats targeted during the strikes. Pic: X/@Southcom
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One of the boats targeted during the strikes. Pic: X/@Southcom

It is unclear where the vessels were from, but the strikes mark the latest in Donald Trump‘s “war” with drug cartels, which has also seen vessels targeted in the Caribbean Sea, including near Venezuela.

Over the past several months, the US has been carrying out a large-scale military build-up in the southern Caribbean, with the stated goal of combating drug trafficking.

In its first lethal strike on 2 September, the White House posted on X that it had conducted a strike against “narcoterrorists” shipping fentanyl to the US, without providing evidence of the alleged crime.

Sky’s Data & Forensics unit last week verified that in the four months up to 10 December, 23 boats were targeted in 22 strikes, killing 87 people.

US forces also seized a crude oil tanker, named Skipper, off the coast of Venezuela last week.

The government in Caracas, led by President Nicolas Maduro, who insists the real purpose of the US military operations is to force him out of office, branded the ship’s seizure a “blatant theft” and an “act of international piracy”.

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On Monday, Mr Trump signed an executive order declaring fentanyl a “weapon of mass destruction”.

The order instructs the State and Treasury departments to pursue the financial assets of and sanctions on financial institutions and groups involved in fentanyl trafficking.

It also calls for greater co-operation between the Pentagon and the Justice Department on fentanyl and drug trafficking issues.

The latest strikes on vessels allegedly trafficking drugs come on the eve of briefings on Capitol Hill for all members of Congress as questions mount over the Trump administration’s military actions.

Mr Hegseth, secretary of state Marco Rubio, and other top national security officials are expected to provide closed-door briefings for politicians in the House and Senate.

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Trump says he has asked Xi Jinping to free Briton Jimmy Lai

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Trump says he has asked Xi Jinping to free Briton Jimmy Lai

Donald Trump has asked his Chinese counterpart to release pro-democracy campaigner Jimmy Lai, who has been found guilty of national security offences in Hong Kong.

The US president said he felt “so badly” about the media tycoon and British citizen, 78, who was arrested in August 2020 after China imposed a national security law following massive anti-government protests in Hong Kong.

Lai, who had previously been sentenced for several lesser offences during his five years in prison, could now spend the rest of his life behind bars.

Jimmy Lai. Pic: Reuters
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Jimmy Lai. Pic: Reuters

Mr Trump said he had spoken to Xi Jinping about Lai’s case and asked for his release.

“I spoke to President Xi about it, and I asked to consider his release,” he said. “He’s not well, he’s an older man, and he’s not well, so I did put that request out. We’ll see what happens.”

It comes as UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said China’s ambassador to the UK had been summoned over Lai’s conviction to underline the government’s position in the “strongest terms”.

Speaking in parliament, she repeated calls for Lai to be released and called the conviction “a politically motivated prosecution”.

People wait to enter the court building ahead of the verdict. Pic: AP
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People wait to enter the court building ahead of the verdict. Pic: AP

Ms Cooper made the remarks after Sir Keir Starmer’s spokesperson said Lai’s case has been a priority for the government and “we will continue to call for his immediate release”.

Earlier in the day, China’s ambassador to the UK, Zheng Zeguang, met with a senior official at the UK Foreign Office “to lodge solemn representations over the UK side’s statement that made irresponsible remarks on the Hong Kong High Court’s guilty verdict in the Jimmy Lai case”, China’s embassy said.

Explained: Who is Jimmy Lai?

Lai, who founded the now-defunct pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily, was charged with two counts of conspiracy to commit collusion with foreign forces to endanger national security, as well as one count of conspiracy to distribute seditious publications. He was found guilty of all three charges.

Speaking after the verdict, Lai’s daughter Claire said if he were released he would devote himself to God and his family rather than political activism.

“He just wants to reunite with his family. He wants to dedicate his life to serving our Lord, and he wants to dedicate the rest of his days to his family,” Claire Lai told the Associated Press. “My father is fundamentally not a man who operates on illegal ground.”

Claire Lai. Pic: Reuters
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Claire Lai. Pic: Reuters

She said five years of solitary confinement has taken a toll on his health, and he has lost a significant amount of weight.

“He is a lot weaker and has only gotten weaker in the last year,” she said. “He has back pains and waist pains, his nails… when we visit, we can tell that they’re turning colours and falling off. Some of his teeth are rotting.”

He also has heart palpitations, is diabetic and his vision and hearing are failing, she added.

Hong Kong’s security chief, Chris Tang, said Lai has received “full medical services” and has never complained of the medical care he has been given.

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Jimmy Lai’s son: UK government must ‘do more’

‘You’ve got to keep fighting’

Meanwhile, her brother Sebastian Lai is lobbying the UK government for their father’s release.

“Regarding the United Kingdom, we talk about normalising relationships. Well, my father’s freedom should be a precondition to that,” he said.

Asked if he is optimistic international pressure can help, he said: “I think you’ve got to keep fighting no matter what. I think, taking my father’s example, standing up for what is right is why we’re doing it. This is my way of fighting for it.”

Hong Kong’s leader John Lee welcomed the verdict, saying: “He has harmed the fundamental interests of the country and the well-being of the people of Hong Kong; his actions are shameful and his intentions malicious.”

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European leaders back ‘multinational force’ to secure peace in Ukraine, as US commits to security guarantees

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European leaders back 'multinational force' to secure peace in Ukraine, as US commits to security guarantees

European leaders have called for a “multinational force” to secure Ukraine after any peace deal with Russia, as they struck an optimistic tone after talks in Berlin.

In a joint statement, they heralded “significant progress” – boosted by a new US commitment to provide unspecified security guarantees to Ukraine.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described the guarantees by the US as “truly remarkable” and a “very important advancement”.

Adding to the positive mood music, Donald Trump said he believed “we are closer now than we have been ever” to agreeing a ceasefire for the deadliest conflict in Europe since the Second World War.

The comments round off two days of talks in Berlin between Ukrainian and US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and a separate meeting of European leaders in the German capital.

Another high-level meeting, this time of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, will be held on Tuesday. The British defence secretary, John Healey, will attend.

Read more: UK’s ‘sons and daughters’ need to be ready to fight

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Siobhan Robbins: Change in mood music after US-Ukraine talks

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was not quite as cheery after Monday’s developments, called the talks on conceding territories to Russia “painful” and “very difficult”.

He told reporters in Berlin: “Frankly speaking, we still have different positions.”

Earlier, his security officials claimed to have dealt a lethal strike to a $400m (£299m) Russian submarine in the Black Sea – a claim that Russia rejected.

“The information from the Ukrainian special services about the alleged destruction of one of Russia’s submarines is not true”, said the Black Sea Fleet command.

Not a single ship or submarine of the Black Sea Fleet in the Novorossiysk base bay, nor their crews, were injured in the sabotage, the fleet command said.

Back in Berlin, European leaders issued a joint statement on behalf of the leaders of Germany, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, and the UK, as well as the presidents of the European Council and the European Commission.

European, US and Ukrainian officials convened in the chancellery in Berlin. Pic: AP
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European, US and Ukrainian officials convened in the chancellery in Berlin. Pic: AP

The document said the leaders “welcomed the close work between President Zelenskyy’s and President Trump’s teams, as well as European teams over the recent days and weeks”.

“They agreed to work together with President Trump and President Zelenskyy to get to a lasting peace, which preserves Ukrainian sovereignty and European security.

“Leaders appreciated the strong convergence between the United States, Ukraine and Europe.”

Outlining what they considered necessary security guarantees, the leaders said the “multinational force” should be made up of countries from the so-called Coalition of the Willing and “supported by the US”.

They also said they “strongly support” Ukraine joining the European Union, and that it should be able to maintain its armed forces at a level of 800,000.

“It will assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

A US official said about 90% of issues between the warring parties had been resolved and that they believed Russia would be open to Ukraine joining the European Union, and to the security guarantees in the deal.

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