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Israel is fighting on at least four fronts, threatening a war across the oil-rich Middle East, but there is no great sense of fear yet as far as financial markets are concerned.

Israel’s actions against Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and the ultimate sponsors of these groups, Iran, have proved a catalyst for oil price spikes since the 7 October attack on Israel in 2023.

But something has changed in recent weeks – even as the conflict has intensified.

Oil prices have barely moved and remain well below the levels seen in April when Iran last fired on Israel in retaliation for military action against its proxies.

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Where are prices today?

The cost of Brent crude stands at $75 a barrel on Wednesday morning.

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That is up from the $71 figure seen 24 hours earlier, before Iran’s missile barrage on Israel.

So we have seen a shift, yes, but market analysts say there are many factors holding the price back.

How does the cost compare to recent price shocks?

This chart tells the story.

It shows the settling for prices since the price shock of 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Brent peaked above $122 in May of that year as the market juggled the impact of Western sanctions against the Kremlin, among other factors.

The price gradually fell back from there until worries about low stockpiles in September 2023 pushed it towards $100 again – remaining sticky from there due to the cross-border attack by Hamas a fortnight later.

Brent stood at $90 this April after Iran’s first rocket attack on Israel.

But that was largely seen as a mere warning shot using inferior weaponry – more a face-saving exercise than a real attempt to cause destruction.

So, perhaps, that makes today’s oil price even more puzzling given the escalation since.

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Explosions in Beirut as Iran targets Israel

What is supporting the oil price?

The theory that Israel may choose to target Iran’s oil infrastructure is a risk.

The country exports an estimated 1.5 million barrels per day but it is not among the major players due to the impact of US sanctions so any disruption to its supplies would be minimal.

Also being priced in is the possibility of wider risks to shipments in the event of a more regional conflict.

In addition to the Middle East crisis, the price has also been propped up by news late last month of economic stimulus in China.

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‘We’re on brink of broader war’

So what is keeping prices down?

Basically, the global economic outlook has taken a turn for the worse. It’s still tough out there.

The global economy is being weighed down by the effects of the successive shocks that have hit since COVID, with higher costs deterring expansion.

Whether that malaise is the result of higher central bank interest rates to battle inflation or reluctance among governments to add to COVID-era borrowing, the outlook for immediate oil demand remains poor.

As Western economies slow again, the biggest growth market of China has been in the doldrums for years due to the effects of a property crisis that has hammered consumer spending.

Also providing a low gear is the continued expectation that the cartel of oil-producing countries, known as OPEC, will raise output in December.

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Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said of the price situation: “These worries are being mitigated by expectations that Saudi Arabia will turn on the taps more fully, and lower demand from China, but upwards pressure is likely to continue while uncertainty reigns about just how far conflict will spread.”

What is the outlook for fuel prices?

Higher oil prices tend to stoke costs more widely in the economy, as they feed through, due to the commodity’s importance in many areas from transport to manufacturing.

It generally takes a couple of weeks for oil price shifts to be reflected in factory gate costs and at the fuel pumps.

In the case of petrol and diesel, prices are currently at a three-year low. Any sustained increase for Brent crude may mean that is short lived.

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Hundreds of jobs at risk as LEON moves to cut unprofitable restaurants

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Hundreds of jobs at risk as LEON moves to cut unprofitable restaurants

The fast food chain LEON has taken a swipe at “unsustainable taxes” while moving to secure its future through the appointment of an administrator, leaving hundreds of jobs at risk.

The loss-making company, bought back from Asda by its co-founder John Vincent in October, said it had begun a process that aimed to bring forward the closure of unprofitable sites. It was to form part of a turnaround plan to restore the brand to its roots around natural foods.

It was unclear at this stage how many of its 71 restaurants – 44 of them directly owned – and approximately 1,100 staff would be affected by the plans for the so-called Company Voluntary Arrangement (CVA).

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“The restructuring will involve the closure of several of LEON’s restaurants and a number of job losses”, a statement said.

“The company has created a programme to support anyone made redundant.”

It added: “LEON and Quantuma intend to spend the next few weeks discussing the plans with its landlords and laying out options for the future of the Company.

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“LEON then plans to emerge from administration as a leaner business that can return to its founding values and principles more easily.

“In the meantime, all the group’s restaurants remain open, serving customers as usual. The LEON grocery business will not be affected in any way by the CVA.”

Mr Vincent said. “If you look at the performance of LEON’s peers, you will see that everyone is facing challenges – companies are reporting significant losses due to working patterns and increasingly unsustainable taxes.”

Mr Vincent sold the chain to Asda in 2021 for £100m but it struggled, like rivals, to make headway after the pandemic and cost of living crisis that followed the public health emergency.

The hospitality sector has taken aim at the chancellor’s business rates adjustments alongside heightened employer national insurance contributions and minimum wage levels, accusing the government of placing jobs and businesses in further peril.

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Revenues of water company to be cut by regulator Ofwat

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Revenues of water company to be cut by regulator Ofwat

The UK’s biggest water supplier has been dealt another blow as the regulator decided to reduce its income.

Thames Water, which supplies 16 million people in England, has been told by the watchdog Ofwat its revenues will be cut by more than £187m.

It comes as the utility struggles under a £17.6bn debt pile and the government has lined up insolvency practitioners for its potential collapse.

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Overall, water firms face a sector-wide revenue reduction of nearly £309m as a result of Ofwat’s determination. Thames Water’s £187.1m cut is the largest revenue reduction.

This will take effect from next year and up to 2030 as part of water companies’ regulator-approved five-year spending and investment plans.

The downward revenue revision has been made as Ofwat believes the companies will perform better than first thought and therefore require less money.

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Better financial performance is ultimately good news for customers.

The change published on Wednesday is a technical update; the initial revenue projections published in December 2024 were based on projected financial performance but after financial results were published in the summer and Ofwat was able to apply these figures.

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Is Thames Water a step closer to nationalisation?

Thames Water and industry body Water UK have been contacted for comment.

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Why is Warner Bros for sale, what are the controversial bids – and how is Trump involved?

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Why is Warner Bros for sale, what are the controversial bids – and how is Trump involved?

A huge takeover that would rock the entertainment industry looks imminent, with Netflix and Paramount fighting over Warner Bros Discovery (WBD).

Streaming giant Netflix announced it had agreed a $72bn (£54bn) deal for WBD’s film and TV studios on 5 December, only for Paramount to sweep in with a $108.4bn (£81bn) bid several days later.

The takeover saga isn’t far removed from a Hollywood plot; with multi-billionaires negotiating in boardrooms, politicians on all sides expressing their fears for the public and the US president looming large, expected to play a significant role.

“Whichever way this deal goes, it will certainly be one of the biggest media deals in history. It will shake up the established TV and film norms and will have global implications,” Sky News’ US correspondent Martha Kelner said on the Trump 100 podcast.

So what do we know about the bids, why are they controversial – and how is Donald Trump involved?

Why is Warner Bros up for sale?

WBD’s board first announced it was open to selling or partly selling the company in October after a summer of hushed speculation.

Back in June, WBD announced its plan to split into two companies: one for its TV, film studios, and HBO Max streaming services, and one for the Discovery element of the business, primarily comprising legacy TV channels that air cartoons, news, and sports.

It came amid the cable industry’s continued struggles at the hands of streaming services, and CEO David Zaslav suggested splitting into two companies would give WBD’s brands the “sharper focus and strategic flexibility they need to compete most effectively in today’s evolving media landscape”.

The company’s long-term strategic initiatives have also been stifled by its estimated $35bn of debt. This wasn’t helped by the WarnerMedia and Discovery merger in 2022, which led to it becoming Warner Bros Discovery.

WBD's announced it was open to selling or partly selling the company in October. Pic: iStock
Image:
WBD’s announced it was open to selling or partly selling the company in October. Pic: iStock

What we know about the bids

The $72bn bid from Netflix is for the first division of the business, which would give it the rights to worldwide hits like the Harry Potter and Game of Thrones franchises – and Warner Bros’ extensive back catalogue of movies.

If the deal were to happen, it would not be finalised until the split is complete, and Discovery Global, including channels like CNN, will not form part of the merger.

Paramount’s $108.4bn offer is what’s known as a hostile bid. This means it went directly to shareholders with a cash offer for the entirety of the company, asking them to reject the deal with Netflix.

Ted Sarandos, CEO of Netflix. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Ted Sarandos, CEO of Netflix. Pic: Reuters

This deal would involve rival US news channels CBS and CNN being brought under the same parent company.

Netflix’s cash and stock deal is valued at $27.75 (£20.80) per Warner share, giving it a total enterprise value of $82.7bn (£62bn), including debt.

But Paramount says its deal will pay $30 (£22.50) cash per share, representing $18bn (£13.5bn) more in cash than its rivals are offering.

Paramount claims to have tried several times to bid for WBD through its board, but said it launched the hostile bid after hearing of Netflix’s offer because the board had “never engaged meaningfully”.

David Zaslav, CEO and president of Warner Bros Discovery. Pic: Reuters
Image:
David Zaslav, CEO and president of Warner Bros Discovery. Pic: Reuters

Why are politicians and experts concerned?

The US government will have a big say on who ultimately buys WBD, as Paramount and Netflix will likely face the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Antitrust Division, a federal agency which scrutinises business deals to ensure fair competition.

Republicans and Democrats have voiced concerns over the potential monopolisation of streaming and the impact it would have on cinemas if Netflix – already the world’s biggest streaming service by market share – were to take over WBD.

Democratic senator Elizabeth Warren said the deal “would create one massive media giant with control of close to half of the streaming market – threatening to force Americans into higher subscription prices and fewer choices over what and how they watch, while putting American workers at risk”.

Similarly, Representative Pramila Jayapal, who co-chairs the House Monopoly Busters Caucus, called the deal a “nightmare,” adding: “It would mean more price hikes, ads, and cookie-cutter content, less creative control for artists, and lower pay for workers.”

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Netflix’s business model of prioritising streaming over cinemas has caused consternation in Hollywood.

The screen actors union SAG-AFTRA said the merger “raises many serious questions” for actors, while the Directors Guild of America said it also had “concerns”.

Experts suggest there’s less of a concern with the Paramount deal when it comes to a streaming monopoly, because its Paramount+ service is smaller and has less of an international footprint than Netflix.

How is Trump relevant?

After Netflix announced its bid, the president said of its path to regulatory clearance: “I’ll be involved in that decision.”

And while Mr Trump himself will not be directly involved, he appointed those in the DOJ Antitrust Division, and they have the authority to block or challenge takeovers.

However, his potential influence isn’t sitting well with some experts due to his ties with key players on the Paramount side.

Larry Ellison (centre left) in the White House with Trump. Pic: Reuters
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Larry Ellison (centre left) in the White House with Trump. Pic: Reuters

Paramount is run by David Ellison, the son of the Oracle tech billionaire (and world’s second-richest man) Larry Ellison, who is a close ally of Mr Trump.

Additionally, Affinity Partners, an investment firm run by Mr Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, would be investing in the deal.

Also participating would be funds controlled by the governments of three unnamed Persian Gulf countries, widely reported as Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Qatar – countries the Trump family company has struck deals with this year.

David Ellison, CEO of Paramount Skydance.  Pic: Reuters
Image:
David Ellison, CEO of Paramount Skydance. Pic: Reuters

Critics of the Trump’s administration has accused it of being transactional, with the president known to hold grudges over those who are critical of him, however, Mr Trump told reporters on 8 December that he has not spoken with Mr Kushner about WBD, adding that neither Netflix nor Paramount “are friends of mine”.

John Mayo, an antitrust expert at Georgetown University, suggested the scrutiny by the Antitrust Division would be serious whichever offer is approved by shareholders, and that he thinks experts there will keep partisanship out of their decisions despite the politically charged atmosphere.

What happens next?

WBD must now advise shareholders whether Paramount’s offer constitutes a superior offer by 22 December.

If the company decides that Paramount’s offer is superior, Netflix would have the opportunity to match or beat it.

WBD would have to pay Netflix a termination fee of $2.8bn (£2.10bn) if it decides to scrap the deal.

Shareholders have until 8 January 2026 to vote on Paramount’s offer.

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