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Israel is fighting on at least four fronts, threatening a war across the oil-rich Middle East, but there is no great sense of fear yet as far as financial markets are concerned.

Israel’s actions against Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and the ultimate sponsors of these groups, Iran, have proved a catalyst for oil price spikes since the 7 October attack on Israel in 2023.

But something has changed in recent weeks – even as the conflict has intensified.

Oil prices have barely moved and remain well below the levels seen in April when Iran last fired on Israel in retaliation for military action against its proxies.

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Where are prices today?

The cost of Brent crude stands at $75 a barrel on Wednesday morning.

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That is up from the $71 figure seen 24 hours earlier, before Iran’s missile barrage on Israel.

So we have seen a shift, yes, but market analysts say there are many factors holding the price back.

How does the cost compare to recent price shocks?

This chart tells the story.

It shows the settling for prices since the price shock of 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Brent peaked above $122 in May of that year as the market juggled the impact of Western sanctions against the Kremlin, among other factors.

The price gradually fell back from there until worries about low stockpiles in September 2023 pushed it towards $100 again – remaining sticky from there due to the cross-border attack by Hamas a fortnight later.

Brent stood at $90 this April after Iran’s first rocket attack on Israel.

But that was largely seen as a mere warning shot using inferior weaponry – more a face-saving exercise than a real attempt to cause destruction.

So, perhaps, that makes today’s oil price even more puzzling given the escalation since.

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Explosions in Beirut as Iran targets Israel

What is supporting the oil price?

The theory that Israel may choose to target Iran’s oil infrastructure is a risk.

The country exports an estimated 1.5 million barrels per day but it is not among the major players due to the impact of US sanctions so any disruption to its supplies would be minimal.

Also being priced in is the possibility of wider risks to shipments in the event of a more regional conflict.

In addition to the Middle East crisis, the price has also been propped up by news late last month of economic stimulus in China.

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‘We’re on brink of broader war’

So what is keeping prices down?

Basically, the global economic outlook has taken a turn for the worse. It’s still tough out there.

The global economy is being weighed down by the effects of the successive shocks that have hit since COVID, with higher costs deterring expansion.

Whether that malaise is the result of higher central bank interest rates to battle inflation or reluctance among governments to add to COVID-era borrowing, the outlook for immediate oil demand remains poor.

As Western economies slow again, the biggest growth market of China has been in the doldrums for years due to the effects of a property crisis that has hammered consumer spending.

Also providing a low gear is the continued expectation that the cartel of oil-producing countries, known as OPEC, will raise output in December.

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Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said of the price situation: “These worries are being mitigated by expectations that Saudi Arabia will turn on the taps more fully, and lower demand from China, but upwards pressure is likely to continue while uncertainty reigns about just how far conflict will spread.”

What is the outlook for fuel prices?

Higher oil prices tend to stoke costs more widely in the economy, as they feed through, due to the commodity’s importance in many areas from transport to manufacturing.

It generally takes a couple of weeks for oil price shifts to be reflected in factory gate costs and at the fuel pumps.

In the case of petrol and diesel, prices are currently at a three-year low. Any sustained increase for Brent crude may mean that is short lived.

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MPs to debate emergency law to keep British Steel open as prime minister warns national security ‘on the line’

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MPs to debate emergency law to keep British Steel open as prime minister warns national security 'on the line'

MPs will today debate emergency laws to save British Steel after the prime minister warned the country’s “economic and national security is on the line”.

Sir Keir Starmer said the future of the company’s Scunthorpe plant – which employs about 3,500 people – “hangs in the balance” after its owner said the cost of running it was unsustainable.

The prime minister said legislation would be passed in one day to allow the government to “take control of the plant and preserve all viable options”.

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MPs and Lords are being summoned from their Easter recess to debate the move and will sit from 11am.

The last time parliament was recalled was on 18 August 2021 to debate the situation in Afghanistan.

The government has been considering nationalising British Steel after Jingye, the Chinese owner, cancelled future orders for iron ore, coal and other raw materials needed to keep the blast furnaces running.

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The furnaces are the last in the UK capable of making virgin steel.

Jingye last month rejected a £500m state rescue package – raising fresh doubts about the Lincolnshire plant and fears it could close in the coming days.

The steel from the plant is used in the rail network and the construction and automotive industries. Without it, Britain would be reliant on imports at a time of trade wars and geopolitical instability.

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Inside the UK’s last blast furnaces

In a statement on Friday, Sir Keir said: “I will always act in the national interest to protect British jobs and British workers.

“This afternoon, the future of British Steel hangs in the balance. Jobs, investment, growth, our economic and national security are all on the line.”

The prime minister said steel was “part of our national story, part of the pride and heritage of this nation” and “essential for our future”.

He said the emergency law would give the business secretary powers to do “everything possible to stop the closure of these blast furnaces”.

This includes the power to direct the company’s board and workforce. It will also ensure it can order the raw materials to keep the furnaces running and ensure staff are paid.

A general view shows British Steel's Scunthorpe plant.
Pic Reuters
Image:
The Scunthorpe plant is the last in the UK that can make virgin steel. Pic: Reuters

One of the two blast furnaces at British Steel's Scunthorpe operation
Image:
One of the two blast furnaces at Scunthorpe

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government was “taking action to save British steel production and protect British jobs”, while Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the owner had left the government with “no choice”.

Mr Reynolds said Jingye had confirmed plans to close the Scunthorpe furnaces immediately despite months of talks and the offer of £500m of co-investment.

The company said it had invested £1.2bn since taking over in 2020, but that the plant is losing £700,000 a day.

Read more:
Govt intervention in British Steel ‘a remarkable step’ – analysis

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What will happen with British Steel?

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the government had landed itself in a “steel crisis entirely of their own making”.

She said when she was business secretary, she had negotiated a plan with British Steel “to limit job losses and keep the plant running”.

Ms Badenoch said the government had “bungled the negotiations, insisting on a Scunthorpe-only deal that the company has deemed unviable”.

She added: “Keir Starmer should have seen this coming. But instead of addressing it earlier in the week when parliament was sitting, their incompetence has led to a last-minute recall of parliament.”

The Unite union said the prime minister’s recalling of parliament was “absolutely the right thing to do to begin the process of nationalisation”.

While the government hasn’t confirmed those plans, the chancellor also said earlier this week that “all options” are on the table.

Sky News understands accountancy firm EY is being lined up to play a role in a nationalisation process.

The government’s intervention over British Steel comes six months after the last blast furnace was closed at Port Talbot in Wales.

Plaid Cymru has questioned why the government didn’t take similar action there.

The party’s Westminster leader, Liz Saville Roberts, said: “Parliament is being recalled to debate the nationalisation of Scunthorpe steelworks.

“But when global market forces devastated Welsh livelihoods in Port Talbot, Labour dismissed Plaid Cymru’s calls for nationalisation as ‘pipe dreams’.”

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MPs to debate emergency legislation to keep British Steel open as ‘security is on the line’

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MPs to debate emergency law to keep British Steel open as prime minister warns national security 'on the line'

Sir Keir Starmer has said the government will debate emergency legislation on Saturday to keep the British Steel plant in Scunthorpe open as “our economic and national security is on the line”.

The prime minister added that “the future of British Steel hangs in the balance” and legislation will be passed tomorrow to allow the government to “take control of the plant and preserve all viable options” for it.

MPs and Lords are being summoned back from Easter recess to Westminster to debate draft legislation on the plans, and will sit from 11am on Saturday.

The government had been actively considering nationalising British Steel after Jingye, its Chinese owner in Scunthorpe, cancelled future orders for the iron ore, coal and other raw materials needed to keep the last blast furnaces in the UK running.

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Jingye also rejected a £500m state rescue package in a move which raised fresh doubts about the 3,500 jobs at the Lincolnshire plant – with it feared the site would be forced to close as early as next week.

The steel from the plant is used in the rail network and the construction and automotive industries. Without the plant, Britain would be reliant on imports at a time of trade wars and geopolitical instability.

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In a short statement delivered from Downing Street this evening, Sir Keir said: “I will always act in the national interest to protect British jobs and British workers.

“This afternoon, the future of British Steel hangs in the balance.

“Jobs, investment, growth, our economic and national security are all on the line.”

One of the two blast furnaces at British Steel's Scunthorpe operation
Image:
One of the two blast furnaces at British Steel’s Scunthorpe operation

‘A new era of global instability’

The prime minister added he has been to the site in Scunthorpe and met the steelworkers there.

He said he understands how “important steel is” to the “whole country” and continued: “It’s part of our national story, Part of the pride and heritage of this nation.

“And I’ll tell you this, it is essential for our future.

“[The government’s] plan for change means we need more steel, not less. So we will act with urgency… This situation and our response is unique.

“While it is true that we’re facing a new era of global instability, our concerns about this plant and negotiations to protect it have been running for years.”

Sir Keir said parliament will be recalled for a “Saturday sitting” and will “pass emergency legislation” in “one day” to give the business secretary the powers to do “everything possible to stop the closure of these blast furnaces”.

He added: “We will keep all options on the table. Our future is in our hands.”

Chancellor Rachel Reeves posted on X after the statement that the government is “taking action to save British steel production and protect British jobs”.

“We are securing Britain’s future,” she added.

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Inside the UK’s last blast furnaces

Tory leader criticises Starmer

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said this evening the Chinese owner of British steel has left the government with “no choice” but to act.

Jingye had confirmed plans to close the blast furnaces at Scunthorpe immediately despite months of talks and the offer of £500m of co-investment from the UK government, Mr Reynolds added in a statement.

It came as Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the government has landed itself in a “steel crisis entirely of their own making”.

“As business secretary, I negotiated a modernisation plan with British Steel to limit job losses and keep the plant running, including introducing an electric arc furnace in Teesside, similar to what we did with Tata at Port Talbot steelworks.

“However, the union-led Labour government have bungled the negotiations, insisting on a Scunthorpe-only deal that the company has deemed unviable. Keir Starmer should have seen this coming. But instead of addressing it earlier in the week when parliament was sitting, their incompetence has led to a last-minute recall of parliament.”

She added the government’s attempts to find a solution to the crisis are inevitably “going to cost taxpayers a lot of money”.

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A general view shows British Steel's Scunthorpe plant.
Pic Reuters
Image:
British Steel’s Scunthorpe plant.
Pic Reuters

Meanwhile, the Unite union welcomed Sir Keir’s announcement by saying it is “absolutely the right thing to do to begin the process of nationalisation”.

The government has not confirmed plans to nationalise the company, but like the prime minister this evening, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said earlier this week that “all options” are on the table.

Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said this evening: “I am pleased that the government has listened to representations by Unite and other steel unions over the future of British Steel.

“Ministers could not have allowed a foundation industry to go under with the loss of more than 3,000 jobs and key skills… Discussions have been positive and whilst a longer-term plan needs to be developed, this gives workers the reprieve we have been asking for.”

‘When it was Wales, they mocked’

The government’s intervention over British Steel comes six months after the last blast furnace was closed at Port Talbot in Wales.

Welsh political party Plaid Cymru has questioned why the government did not take similar action to save that steelworks.

The party’s Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts MP said: “Parliament is being recalled [on Saturday] to debate the nationalisation of Scunthorpe steelworks.

“But when global market forces devastated Welsh livelihoods in Port Talbot, Labour dismissed Plaid Cymru’s calls for nationalisation as ‘pipe dreams’.

“In a real emergency, governments step up to defend their strategic interests. Plaid Cymru recognised the importance of Welsh steelmaking. Labour chose to look the other way.

“When it was Wales, they mocked. Now it’s England, they act.

“Labour has taken Wales for granted for far too long – and the people of Wales won’t forget it.”

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UK economy grows – ONS

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UK economy grows - ONS

The economy performed better than expected in February, growing by 0.5% according to official figures released on Friday, but comes ahead of an expected hit from the global trade war.

The standard measure of an economy’s value, gross domestic product (GDP), rose in part thanks to a suprisingly strong performance from the manufacturing sector, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested.

Following the publication of the figures, the British pound rose against the dollar, jumping 0.4% against the greenback to $1.3019 within an hour.

Analysts had been forecasting just a 0.1% GDP hike in the lead-up to the announcement, according to data from LSEG.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves described the results as “encouraging”, but struck a cautious tone when alluding to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and the economic volatility of the past week.

“The world has changed, and we have witnessed that change in recent weeks,” she said.

“I know this is an anxious time for families who are worried about the cost of living and British businesses who are worried about what this change means for them,” Ms Reeves added. “This government will remain pragmatic and cool-headed as we seek to secure the best deal with the United States that is in our national interest.”

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But back in February, when Mr Trump was just beginning his second term in office, the UK’s economy looked to be on firmer ground.

Service sectors like computer programming, telecoms and car dealerships all had strong a month, while manufacturing industries such as electronics and pharmaceuticals also helped to drive GDP growth in February.

Car manufacturing also picked up after its recent poor performance.

“The economy grew strongly in February with widespread growth across both services and manufacturing industries,” said Liz McKeown, ONS Director of Economic Statistics.

While motor vehicle manufacturing and retail both grew in February 2025, they remain below February 2024 levels by 10.1% and 1.1% respectively

This aligns with industry data showing year-on-year declines in registrations and manufacturing.

“The UK economy expanded by 0.5% in February, surprising but welcome positive news,” said Hailey Low, Associate Economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

“However, heightened global uncertainty and escalating trade tensions mean the outlook remains uncertain, with a likely reduced growth rate this year due to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcements.”

Ms Low said that this could create a dilemma for Ms Reeves, who would face difficult decisions later in the year when the chancellor presents her next budget.

The latest data also shows a jump from January, when the economy was flat. And compared to the same month a year ago, GDP was 1.4% higher in February 2025.

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