Oil watchers now see a real threat of supply disruptions after latest Iran-Israel escalation
A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023.
Fatemeh Bahrami | Anadolu | Getty Images
Oil watchers are now seeing a genuine threat to crude supplies after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Iran on Tuesday launched the strike on Israel in retaliation for its recent killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and an Iranian commander in Lebanon.
Iranian oil infrastructure may soon become a target for Israel as it considers a countermove, analysts told CNBC.
“The Middle East conflict may finally impact oil supply,” said Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee. “The scope for a material disruption to oil supply is now imminent.”
These latest developments could be a gamechanger, after a prolonged period of “geopolitical risk fatigue” during which traders brushed off threats of oil supply disruptions stemming from the situation in the Middle East as well as Ukraine, he said.
Up to 4% of global oil supply is at risk as the conflict now directly envelopes Iran, and an attack or tighter sanctions could send prices to $100 per barrel again, Kavonic added.
Oil prices year-to-date
Iran’s latest missile attack followed Israel’s deployment of ground troops into southern Lebanon, intensifying its offensive against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. Most of the 200 missiles launched were intercepted by Israeli and U.S. defenses, and there were no reported fatalities in Israel as a result of the attack.
The attack came on the heels of Israel‘s deployment of ground forces into south Lebanon, escalating its offensive on Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group.
Oil prices gained over 5% in the previous session following the missile strike, before tapering to a 2% climb. Global benchmark Brent is now trading 1.44% higher at $74.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.62% to $70.95 per barrel.
As Israel turns from Gaza to Lebanon and Iran, the war is entering a new and more energy-related phase.
Bob McNally
President of Rapidan Energy Group
Since the armed Israel-Hamas conflict started Oct. 7 of last year, disruptions to the oil market has been limited. The oil market also remains under pressure as increased production from the U.S. add to the supply picture, and sputtering Chinese demand have depressed prices, said Andy Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates.
Iran is the third largest producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, producing almost four million barrels of oil per day, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.
New phase of the war?
Other analysts echoed Kavonic’s warning.
“As Israel turns from Gaza to Lebanon and Iran, the war is entering a new and more energy-related phase,” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC, adding that he expects Israel’s retaliation for the missile attack to be “disproportionately large.”
“It’s going to get worse before it gets better,” he said.
Ross Schaap, head of research at GeoQuant, which leverages structural and high-frequency data to generate political risk scores, said that the organization’s risk analysis model of the Israel-Iran conflict, which has remained in three standard deviations of the average trend over the past 12 years, saw a significant spike after the latest missile strikes.
These results indicate that “much bigger events” are expected, said Schaap said.
Josh Young, CIO of Bison Interests, who is similarly observing an increasing likelihood of a potential strike on Iranian oil infrastructure oil supply disruption, said that this marks a “significant escalation” by Iran.
Should Iranian exports go offline due to an attack, Young predicts that oil prices will surge to more than $100 per barrel.
SolarEdge and Solar Landscape are going to turn hundreds of empty commercial rooftops into solar energy generators in the US.
The two companies announced today that they’ve struck a deal to use SolarEdge’s US-made solar technology in more than 500 commercial rooftop projects across multiple states. Construction will take place in 2025 and 2026.
The installations will be built on large-scale commercial and industrial buildings – think warehouses and distribution centers – with a ton of untapped solar potential.
“Generating electricity on commercial rooftops and distributing it into the grid is America’s most shovel-ready energy option,” said Shaun Keegan, CEO of commercial rooftop solar developer Solar Landscape. “Our partnership with SolarEdge allows us to rapidly and efficiently deploy solar across a diverse array of commercial and industrial rooftops. Their US-manufactured technology gives us the reliability and performance we need while meeting domestic content requirements for our projects.”
Using US-made tech helps projects qualify for federal incentives while reducing delays by keeping supply chains local. SolarEdge says its domestic manufacturing operations have already created about 2,000 American jobs.
Naama Ohana, who heads up SolarEdge’s commercial & industrial division, said, “This collaboration demonstrates how American innovation and manufacturing are helping to address the nation’s growing energy needs while strengthening local economies.”
In 2024 alone, Solar Landscape leased 40 million square feet of rooftop space in the US, and it aims to deploy enough solar to power around 80,000 homes. The company now has more than 80 partners who own over 2 billion square feet of commercial property nationwide.
The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Hyundai is preparing to launch what’s expected to be its most advanced EV yet. With its official launch just around the corner, Hyundai’s new Elexio SUV is already beating expectations in global testing.
Hyundai’s Elexio electric SUV impresses in global tests
We got our first look at the Elexio in May after Hyundai’s joint venture with BAIC, Beijing Hyundai unveiled the new electric SUV in Shanghai.
After warning that China is a “must-fight place” for global automakers, including itself, Hyundai is stepping up to the plate.
The Elexio is “a new starting point,” the company claims. Dubbed the IONIQ 5 of China, Hyundai’s new electric SUV is packed with smart technology, fast charging capabilities, and advanced features, boasting a CLTC driving range of 435 miles (700 km).
Ahead of its official launch in China in the next few weeks, the Elexio is already making a statement during global tests.
Hyundai’s new electric SUV has now undergone three crash tests, among other global evaluations, consistently outperforming safety, quality, and performance expectations each time.
After impressing during front, side, and ditch rollover safety tests, Hyundai credited the five layers of ultra-high-strength steel plating, dubbed “God’s Hand,” around the frame. In fact, it has a 360-degree reinforced body design with eight horizontal and seven vertical floor beams.
In a -30℃ (-22F) chamber, the Elexio still started up and charged while the battery preconditioned. It also lost less driving range than the average. The Elexio lost 39% of its range compared to an average of around 40% at -7℃ (19.4°F).
The final global ride and handling road test proved Hyundai’s electric SUV is ready to hit the streets. Hyundai simulated 17 types of “bad urban road” conditions to see if the Elexio could handle them.
Based on Hyundai’s E-GMP platform, the company claims the Elexio offers “the highest suspension configuration in its class.” Added high-end shock absorber valves and hydraulic bushings to minimize vibration, while providing drivers with more control over the vehicle. Hyundai fine-tuned the suspension over 300 times for the perfect ride.
After China’s MIIT released sales info last month, we learned that Hyundai’s new electric SUV is 4,615 mm in length, 1,875 mm in width, and 1,673 mm in height, which is slightly smaller than the Tesla Model Y.
It will be available in single and dual-motor powertrain options, providing 160 kW (214 hp) and 233 kW (312 hp) of output, respectively. The LFP batteries will be supplied by BYD’s battery unit, FinDream.
Hyundai is set to launch the Elexio in China in the third quarter of 2025. Prices will be announced closer to launch, but according to CarNewsChina, it’s expected to start at around 140,000 yuan ($19,500).
Source: TheKoreanCarBlog, Beijing Hyundai
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Tesla is rumored to be behind a large $4 billion lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) battery cell order with Korea’s LG Energy Solution.
Yesterday, LG reported having secured a $4.3 billion order for LFP battery cells from its new factory in the US from August 2027 to July 2030.
The Korean company didn’t confirm the identity of the customer, but it did mention that the cells will be used in stationary energy storage products, which prompted many people to speculate that Tesla is behind the order.
Tesla currently produces Megapacks and Powerwalls in the US with LFP battery cells from China.
We previously reported that this is a problem amid the trade war between the US and China.
As of last year, a 25% tariff already applied to battery cells from China, but this increased to more than 80% under Trump before he paused some tariffs on China. It remains unclear where they will end up by the time negotiations are complete and the trade war is resolved, but many expect it to be higher.
Prior to Trump taking power, Tesla had already planned to build a small LFP battery factory in the US to avoid the 25% tariffs.
The automaker had secured older manufacturing equipment from one of its battery cell suppliers, CATL, and planned to deploy it in the US for small-scale production.
Tesla recently unveiled some images of the factory, which it claims is almost complete, but it is expected to be limited to less than 10 GWh of LFP battery cell production per year at full capacity, while Tesla produces more than 40 GWh of energy storage products per year in the US.
LG’s LFP battery cells made in the US would enable Tesla to close the gap between its own battery cell production and its Megapack and Powerwall production.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike