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A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023.

Fatemeh Bahrami | Anadolu | Getty Images

Oil watchers are now seeing a genuine threat to crude supplies after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Iran on Tuesday launched the strike on Israel in retaliation for its recent killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and an Iranian commander in Lebanon.

Iranian oil infrastructure may soon become a target for Israel as it considers a countermove, analysts told CNBC.

“The Middle East conflict may finally impact oil supply,” said Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee. “The scope for a material disruption to oil supply is now imminent.”

These latest developments could be a gamechanger, after a prolonged period of “geopolitical risk fatigue” during which traders brushed off threats of oil supply disruptions stemming from the situation in the Middle East as well as Ukraine, he said.

Up to 4% of global oil supply is at risk as the conflict now directly envelopes Iran, and an attack or tighter sanctions could send prices to $100 per barrel again, Kavonic added.

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Oil prices year-to-date

Iran’s latest missile attack followed Israel’s deployment of ground troops into southern Lebanon, intensifying its offensive against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. Most of the 200 missiles launched were intercepted by Israeli and U.S. defenses, and there were no reported fatalities in Israel as a result of the attack.

The attack came on the heels of Israel‘s deployment of ground forces into south Lebanon, escalating its offensive on Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group.

Oil prices gained over 5% in the previous session following the missile strike, before tapering to a 2% climb. Global benchmark Brent is now trading 1.44% higher at $74.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.62% to $70.95 per barrel.

As Israel turns from Gaza to Lebanon and Iran, the war is entering a new and more energy-related phase.

Bob McNally

President of Rapidan Energy Group

Since the armed Israel-Hamas conflict started Oct. 7 of last year, disruptions to the oil market has been limited. The oil market also remains under pressure as increased production from the U.S. add to the supply picture, and sputtering Chinese demand have depressed prices, said Andy Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates.

Iran is the third largest producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, producing almost four million barrels of oil per day, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

New phase of the war?

Other analysts echoed Kavonic’s warning.

“As Israel turns from Gaza to Lebanon and Iran, the war is entering a new and more energy-related phase,” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC, adding that he expects Israel’s retaliation for the missile attack to be “disproportionately large.”

“It’s going to get worse before it gets better,” he said.

Ross Schaap, head of research at GeoQuant, which leverages structural and high-frequency data to generate political risk scores, said that the organization’s risk analysis model of the Israel-Iran conflict, which has remained in three standard deviations of the average trend over the past 12 years, saw a significant spike after the latest missile strikes.

These results indicate that “much bigger events” are expected, said Schaap said.

Josh Young, CIO of Bison Interests, who is similarly observing an increasing likelihood of a potential strike on Iranian oil infrastructure oil supply disruption, said that this marks a “significant escalation” by Iran.

Should Iranian exports go offline due to an attack, Young predicts that oil prices will surge to more than $100 per barrel.

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Autonomous semi truck brand Einride set to go public in $1.8B SPAC deal

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Autonomous semi truck brand Einride set to go public in .8B SPAC deal

Electric logistics company Einride is set to go public through a SPAC merger deal with blank-check firm Legato Merger Corp. that values the Swedish brand at a staggering $1.8 billion. (!)

A SPAC deal is a transaction in which a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), which is effectively a publicly-traded shell corporation that’s formed solely to raise capital, merges with an operating company to bring it into a public trading market. It’s a process that was popular in the heady, “draw a truck, make a billion dollars” era that saw recently pardoned criminal and alleged sex offender Trevor Milton launch the now-defunct hydrogen truck brand Nikola, and one that offers a faster and sometimes more flexible (read: less regulated) alternative to a traditional Initial Public Offering (IPO).

This week’s deal, however, follows hot on the heels of major autonomous trucking milestones and a solid, billion dollar vote of confidence in Einride — both of which serve to make this deal’s valuation to seem more credible than most.

“We’ve proven the technology, built trust with global customers, and shown that autonomous and electric operations are not just possible, but better,” says Einride CEO, Roozbeh Charli. “This Transaction positions us to accelerate our global expansion and continue to deliver with speed and precision for our customers. The foundation is built, the demand is clear, and our focus is on execution and delivering the future of freight.”

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We’ve written about Einride’s electric fleet operations in Europe a few times, but it’s worth noting that the company is rapidly expanding its human-operated decarbonized logistics operations as well (the company announced a 150-unit Peterbilt 579EV truck order last summer).

Peterbilt electric semi trucks


Einride orders electric truck fleet from Peterbilt
Peterbilt 579EV trucks; via Einride.

“Our proprietary technology stack, purpose built for autonomous operations, combined with our vessel-agnostic approach, provides significant competitive advantages,” comments Henrik Green, CTO of Einride. “With our demonstrated safety record and established ability to operate autonomous vehicles commercially, we are well-positioned to capture the significant market opportunity as the industry transitions to electric and autonomous freight.”

The Transaction values Einride at $1.8 billion in pre-money equity value and is expected to generate approximately $219 million in gross proceeds before accounting for potential redemptions of Legato’s public shares, transaction expenses and any further financing. Additionally, the Company is seeking up to $100 million of private investment in public equity (or, “PIPE”) capital to accelerate growth.

Other notable SPAC deals in the EV space include Lordstown Motors, Proterra, and Volvo spinoff Polestar, all of which have either gone bankrupt or seen dramatic market cap reductions over the last few years.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Einride.


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BYD undercuts every EV in Australia with the Atto 1, now the cheapest new model

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BYD undercuts every EV in Australia with the Atto 1, now the cheapest new model

BYD is bringing its most affordable EV to the Land Down Under. The Atto 1 arrives as Australia’s cheapest new EV, just as BYD is finding its footing.

BYD reveals Atto 1 EV prices in Australia

The Atto 1 is a rebadged version of BYD’s compact electric hatch, sold as the Seagull in China, the Dolphin Surf in Europe, and the Dolphin Mini in other overseas markets.

BYD’s low-cost electric car arrives as the Chinese auto giant closes in on Tesla, which has dominated Australia’s EV market thus far.

Starting at just $23,990 before on-road costs, the Atto 1 is now the cheapest new electric vehicle in Australia. The electric hatch is available in two trims: Essential and Premium. The Atto 1 Premium, priced from $27,990, before on-road costs.

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The base Essential model is powered by a 30 kWh BYD Blade battery, providing a WLTP driving range of 220 km. Upgrading to the Premium trim gets you a larger 43.2 kWh battery, good for a WLTP driving range of 310 km.

BYD-Atto-1-EV-Australia

Inside, the Atto 1 features a 10.1″ floating infotainment screen with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, as well as a 7″ driver display cluster. The higher-priced Premium trim adds a wireless phone charger, heated front seats, and a 360-degree camera.

BYD also revealed that the Atto 2 SUV starts at $31,990 before on-road costs. The Premium variant is priced from $35,990.

“The Atto 1 and Atto 2 represent the next step in BYD’s vision for accessible, premium electric mobility for Australian drivers,” according to BYD Australia COO, Stephen Collins.

Both will begin arriving at dealerships next month and are expected to see strong demand as some of the most affordable EVs on the market.

BYD-Atto-2-EV
BYD Atto 2 compact electric SUV (Source: BYD)

BYD is closing in on Tesla in Australia after going back and forth as the best-selling EV brand over the past few months.

Through October, BYD sold 19,248 electric vehicles in Australia, according to data from The Driven. Tesla, on the other hand, has sold 23,569 vehicles.

BYD is already outselling Tesla in the UK, parts of Europe, and other overseas markets. With two new low-cost models rolling out, Australia could be next.

Source: The Driven, BYD Australia

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Tesla is working on Apple CarPlay integration, report says

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Tesla is working on Apple CarPlay integration, report says

Tesla is working on Apple CarPlay integration inside its electric vehicles, according to a new report.

If it does happen, it would mark a major reversal of Tesla’s in-car infotainment strategy.

In the mid-2010s, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the automaker was working on integrating phone mirroring, such as Android Auto and Apple CarPlay, but that was a decade ago, and it never happened.

Now, half of the industry is moving away from the technology as automakers increasingly seek full control over the infotainment systems in their vehicles.

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Today, Bloomberg came out with a surprising report that claims Tesla is currently working to integrate Apple CarPlay:

The carmaker has started testing the capability internally, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the effort is still private. The CarPlay platform — long supported by other automakers — shows users a version of the iPhone’s software that’s optimized for vehicle infotainment systems. It’s considered a must-have option by many drivers.

There are not many details on the report other than it would be integrated as a window within Tesla’s broader interface, and that it could launch within the next few months – though it could also be killed just like the last time Tesla talked about it.

Tesla is also planning to use the standard version of CarPlay, not the newer “Ultra” iteration that can control instrument clusters and climate functions. However, the company is planning to support the wireless version, allowing drivers to connect their iPhones without a cable.

Electrek’s Take

I’ll file this one under “I’ll believe it when I see it.” It would be quite a reversal of Tesla’s strategy.

Of all the automakers turning away from Apple CarPlay, Tesla was suffering the least because its software experience is by far the best, including its voice-to-text, as CarPlay is particularly useful to answer text messages through voice while driving, but there are still many people who would prefer the CarPlay experience.

The way I see it, CarPlay integration is not particularly difficult and should at least be offered as an option for those who want it.

And if automakers want to own the whole infotainment experience inside their vehicles, they have to earn it by making the experience a smooth one.

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