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A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023.

Fatemeh Bahrami | Anadolu | Getty Images

Oil watchers are now seeing a genuine threat to crude supplies after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Iran on Tuesday launched the strike on Israel in retaliation for its recent killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and an Iranian commander in Lebanon.

Iranian oil infrastructure may soon become a target for Israel as it considers a countermove, analysts told CNBC.

“The Middle East conflict may finally impact oil supply,” said Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee. “The scope for a material disruption to oil supply is now imminent.”

These latest developments could be a gamechanger, after a prolonged period of “geopolitical risk fatigue” during which traders brushed off threats of oil supply disruptions stemming from the situation in the Middle East as well as Ukraine, he said.

Up to 4% of global oil supply is at risk as the conflict now directly envelopes Iran, and an attack or tighter sanctions could send prices to $100 per barrel again, Kavonic added.

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Oil prices year-to-date

Iran’s latest missile attack followed Israel’s deployment of ground troops into southern Lebanon, intensifying its offensive against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. Most of the 200 missiles launched were intercepted by Israeli and U.S. defenses, and there were no reported fatalities in Israel as a result of the attack.

The attack came on the heels of Israel‘s deployment of ground forces into south Lebanon, escalating its offensive on Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group.

Oil prices gained over 5% in the previous session following the missile strike, before tapering to a 2% climb. Global benchmark Brent is now trading 1.44% higher at $74.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.62% to $70.95 per barrel.

As Israel turns from Gaza to Lebanon and Iran, the war is entering a new and more energy-related phase.

Bob McNally

President of Rapidan Energy Group

Since the armed Israel-Hamas conflict started Oct. 7 of last year, disruptions to the oil market has been limited. The oil market also remains under pressure as increased production from the U.S. add to the supply picture, and sputtering Chinese demand have depressed prices, said Andy Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates.

Iran is the third largest producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, producing almost four million barrels of oil per day, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

New phase of the war?

Other analysts echoed Kavonic’s warning.

“As Israel turns from Gaza to Lebanon and Iran, the war is entering a new and more energy-related phase,” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC, adding that he expects Israel’s retaliation for the missile attack to be “disproportionately large.”

“It’s going to get worse before it gets better,” he said.

Ross Schaap, head of research at GeoQuant, which leverages structural and high-frequency data to generate political risk scores, said that the organization’s risk analysis model of the Israel-Iran conflict, which has remained in three standard deviations of the average trend over the past 12 years, saw a significant spike after the latest missile strikes.

These results indicate that “much bigger events” are expected, said Schaap said.

Josh Young, CIO of Bison Interests, who is similarly observing an increasing likelihood of a potential strike on Iranian oil infrastructure oil supply disruption, said that this marks a “significant escalation” by Iran.

Should Iranian exports go offline due to an attack, Young predicts that oil prices will surge to more than $100 per barrel.

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Polestar (PSNY) is done with show and tell, needs to start ‘actively selling cars’

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Polestar (PSNY) is done with show and tell, needs to start 'actively selling cars'

Although Polestar (PSNY) delivered fewer vehicles in the third quarter than last year, the EV maker expects to achieve a positive gross profit margin in Q4 2024. To hit its target, Polestar’s new CEO said the EV maker needs to go from showing to “actively selling cars.”

Polestar Q3 deliveries fall as new CEO takes over

Polestar delivered around 11,900 vehicles in the third quarter, down from 13,976 in Q3 2023. Through the first nine months of September, Polestar’s deliveries reached 32,300. That’s 22% fewer than last year.

The announcement comes after Polestar’s CEO and founder, Thomas Ingenlath, stepped down on October 1, 2024.

Polestar’s new leader, Michael Lohscheller, said in his first public statement since taking over the reins that the company is “conducting a review of our strategy and operations.”

One of the biggest keys, Lohscheller explained, was “going from showing to actively selling cars.” Polestar’s leader said the company has already adopted a more active sales model, adding that the first markets are “showing solid order intake.”

Polestar expects revenue in 2024 to be about the same as last year at around $2.38 billion. The company also said it expects to achieve a positive gross profit margin in the fourth quarter of the year.

Polestar-profit
US-made Polestar 3 electric SUV (Source: Polestar)

We will learn more about Polestar’s plans during its business and strategy update on January 16, 2025.

Polestar is “engaged in constructive dialogue” alongside parent company Geely and its club loan lenders.

Polestar-profit
Polestar 4 (Source: Polestar)

The EV maker is launching two new electric SUVs, the Polestar 3 and 4, which should help boost demand.

Polestar 3 and 4 electric SUV by trim in the US Starting Price Range
(expected EPA-est)
Polestar 4 Long Range Single Motor $56,300 300 miles
Polestar 4 Long Range Dual Motor $64,300 270 miles
Polestar 4 Long Range Dual Motor model (with Plus and Performance packs) $74,300 270 miles
Polestar 3 Long Range Dual Motor with Pilot Pack $74,800 315 miles
Polestar 3 Long Range Dual Motor with Pilot Pack and Plus Pack $80,300 315 miles
Polestar 3 Long Range Dual Motor with Pilot and Performance Pack $80,800 279 miles
Polestar 3 Long Range Dual Motor with Pilot, Plus, and Performance Pack $86,300 279 miles
Polestar 3 and 4 prices and range by trim for the US (*including $1,400 destination fee)

The first Polestar 3 rolled off the production line in the US in August at its South Carolina plant. Polestar’s electric SUV starts at $73,400 and has a range of up to 315 miles.

Meanwhile, Polestar 4 deliveries will kick off in the US later this year. It will start at $56,300 and have a range of up to 300 miles.

Polestar stock is down 5% following Friday’s news. Over the past 12 months, Polestar share prices have fallen 51%.

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Enel X Way North America gives its customers an 11th-hour lifeline

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Enel X Way North America gives its customers an 11th-hour lifeline

Enel X Way North America’s EV chargers will continue to operate with software connectivity beyond today – here’s what we know.

Enel X Way North America keeps the lights on

On October 2, Enel X Way North America announced that it was shutting down its residential and commercial EV charger business in the US and Canada, effective October 11, 2024.

Enel X Way USA, which operates Enel X Way North America, said that a third-party firm, which we now know is financial services provider B. Riley Advisory Services, will be appointed to manage the company’s remaining obligations and communicate directly with customers and partners regarding the shutdown.

While the company’s previous plan was to just leave North America and leave its customers high and dry, it now has a better plan.

Existing JuiceBox and Enel X Way USA LLC customers and clients will still be able to use their software and mobile applications for an extended period. However, there won’t be any customer service.

In the meantime, this “interim measure” will enable B. Riley Advisory Services to “seek a long-term solution for the EV charging platform, with the ultimate goal of maintaining operational continuity for Enel X Way USA customers.”

It’s going to hold a Customer Management Auction, and customers will be transitioned to the winning software provider. Qualified bids will be accepted until October 22 at this website.

Here’s what’s up for bid:

  • Transfer of Customer Management and Implement a new SaaS for Residential Customers (120,000 +/- currently).
  • Transfer of Customer Management and Implement a new SaaS for Commercial Customers (25,000 +/- currently).
  • Bulk Purchase of 17,000 +/- EV Chargers (without SaaS)
  • An auction of miscellaneous Corporate Assets.

Electrek’s Take

This is a much better path to take than completely abandoning one’s customers. If I was a business or a residential owner of Enel X Way North America EV chargers, I’d be very relieved. I’d just hope nothing went wrong with my chargers until someone took over the management of their software, seeing how there was no customer service.

I’m going to assume Enel X Way didn’t just find its conscience all by itself. Only yesterday, Consumer Reports, US PIRG, and 60 self-reported owners of JuiceBox EV chargers asked the FTC to investigate Enel X Way’s behavior. That would have been one of many complaints. The company also took Infrastructure Law grants from the federal government to install DC fast chargers. It’s not like its unprofessional departure from the North American market wasn’t going create waves. Glad it had a change of heart.

Read more: Enel X Way North America is shutting down – here’s what we know

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BYD takes over as China’s largest auto group with low-cost EVs dominating the market

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BYD takes over as China's largest auto group with low-cost EVs dominating the market

Although BYD was already the best-selling brand in China, it reached an even more significant milestone last month. After overtaking SAIC, BYD is now China’s largest auto group.

BYD tops SAIC to become China’s largest auto group

After sales surged by 62%, with over 3 million vehicles sold last year, BYD officially became China’s best-selling brand.

Last month, BYD hit an even more significant milestone. BYD is now China’s largest auto group after topping SAIC in September sales. The milestone is significant, given that SAIC has joint ventures with leading global automakers, including Volkswagen GM.

BYD Group sold a record 419,426 vehicles last month, a 45% increase from September 2023. The numbers include BYD’s Denza, Fang Cheng Bao, and Yangwang subbrands.

September was BYD’s fourth consecutive record-breaking sales month. Despite an influx of new competition and an intensifying price war in China, BYD is still taking market share.

BYD’s cheapest electric car, the Seagull, was the best-selling EV in China in August, with 40,949 models sold. In September, BYD sold another 43,425 Seagull models.

BYD-largest-auto-group
BYD Seagull EV (Source: BYD)

The BYD Seagull starts at under $10,000 (69,800 yuan) in China and is already stealing market share overseas.

Meanwhile, SAIC is struggling to keep pace. Its joint venture with GM, SAIC-GM-Wuling, is a big reason as sales collapsed 35% in September, with 313,260 units sold.

BYD-largest-auto-group
BYD’s wide-reaching portfolio (Source: BYD)

Through September, SAIC has sold 2,649,333 vehicles (-21.5% YOY) in China, falling behind BYD, which has 2,747,875 vehicle sales (+32% YOY). BYD’s production numbers through September are also now outpacing SAIC’s.

Electrek’s Take

BYD continues to expand in China despite its increasingly competitive market. With low-cost EVs like the Seagull, Dolphin, and Yuan Plus, BYD is leading the market.

Although BYD is best known for its affordable vehicles, the automaker is rapidly expanding its lineup with new pickup trucks, luxury SUVs, and electric supercars.

BYD is also looking overseas to drive future growth. The company is already a leading EV brand in key auto regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America. With new plants planned in Hungary, Pakistan, Mexico, and Turkey, BYD is laying the groundwork to continue its dominant expansion.

After selling more vehicles than Honda and Nissan for the first time in Q2, BYD became the seventh-largest automaker globally. Will it continue to climb the global auto ranks? With new tech and batteries driving down costs, BYD is poised for a run.

Source: CarNewsChina

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