Where Iranian missiles struck Israel, what it means – and what could happen next
Iran launched nearly 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday – many were intercepted by Israel’s air defence system, some landed in the sea, and others gouged craters in the earth.
Sky News’ Data and Forensics team looks at what we know about where the strikes were aimed, the damage they caused – and what could happen next.
At least seven impact locations have been identified by Sky News, including two Israeli airbases, a school grounds and two close to the area suspected of housing Mossad’s headquarters.
Iran said the attack was aimed at military bases and carried out in response to the assassinations of three prominent Iranian or Iranian-backed leaders – namely Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) commander Abbas Nilforoushan.
The locations of strike impacts in Israel and the occupied West Bank
Sky News has geolocated three videos that suggest the Nevatim airbase was targeted.
While none prove the base was directly hit, or what damage may have been caused, taken together they strongly suggest missiles landed within its perimeter.
In the footage viewed by Sky News, at least eight missiles were seen to have exploded in the direction of the base. The number of additional rockets visible suggest many more are likely to have impacted.
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Sky News has geolocated three videos that suggest Israel’s Nevatim airbase was targeted in last night’s attack
Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert, which houses Israel’s F-35 fighter jets, was targeted in Iran’s drone and missile barrage in April, carried out in response to an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Missiles were also seen landing in the direction of Tel Nof airbase.
The headquarters of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad appears to have been one of the targets.
Video taken from a car showed an explosion about 700 metres south of the headquarters, with a missile appearing to land next to the road.
There was another near-miss just north of the headquarters. A large crater was seen in the road just over half a kilometre from the building, which lies in the densely-populated suburb of Glilot on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.
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Sky News located evidence of two strike impacts close to suspected Mossad HQ
A crater of that size would not have been caused by fragments of air defence systems, but by a warhead, Forbes McKenzie, chief executive of the McKenzie Intelligence Services, told Sky News.
“A warhead is designed to create a hole in the ground. That’s what it’s for. Whereas a defence system is designed to fragment in the air and spread lots of nasty stuff in the air for the missiles to fly through and basically go off course or be destroyed.
“A big crater in the ground is made by something that’s designed to make a big crater in the ground.”
The shape of the crater is also a clue to what caused it, Sky News’ military analyst Professor Michael Clarke added.
He said: “When debris falls it obviously causes some sort of scarring of the landscape, but a circular crater is a sign of some sort of explosion.”
That explosion could have happened because the warhead worked as intended, or the missile may have been intercepted by the Israeli defence system but exploded on impact, he said.
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Iron Dome is just one part of its air defence system
People look at a crater caused during Iran’s strikes on Tel Aviv. Pic: Reuters
Prof Clarke said he wouldn’t “altogether disbelieve” Iran’s claims to be targeting military facilities, but suggested they had a “wide” interpretation, including related national facilities.
Another video geolocated by Sky News showed a missile falling near Ayalon Mall, a shopping centre in Tel Aviv. The mall is surrounded by wide streets and open car parks.
Interceptions by Israel’s air defence systems, which are intended to destroy missiles or shoot them off-course, make it difficult to know whether the eventual landing sites of missiles or debris were the intended target or not.
Iran claimed 90% of the missiles hit their targets, but Israel said many were intercepted.
While the Iron Dome is the most well-known part of its layered air defence system, Arrow 2 and 3 would have been the main defences against the long-range ballistic missiles launched by Iran.
The system operates outside the atmosphere to intercept and bring down missiles.
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Video also showed two missiles overshooting Tel Aviv and landing in the sea.
In Hod Hasharon, a city in central Israel, about 100 homes were damaged, according to local officials quoted by the Times of Israel.
The newspaper reported a number of homes were seriously damaged and dozens more suffered light damage from shrapnel and falling missile fragments.
A school in the central Israeli town of Gedera, close to the Tel Nof airbase, took a direct hit from at least one missile, blowing open the walls of the ground floor classrooms and leaving a massive crater. No children were at the school at the time of the strike.
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Sky News at school hit by missile
The only reported fatality from Iran’s barrage was a 38-year-old Gazan man who was killed in Jericho in the Jordan Valley by falling missile debris.
CCTV footage showed a large metal tube falling out of the sky and landing on a man walking across a street, apparently killing him instantly.
What could happen next?
Given the Iranians don’t own the GPS system – the Americans do – the accuracy of Tuesday’s strikes is probably as good as Iran can get, according to Mr Mackenzie.
“All they can do is point and shoot.”
While it showed their capability of firing intercontinental missiles, it also demonstrated the limits of their accuracy, “which is why you have to have 200 to have some kind of effect”.
Iran aggressively used a capability that it normally reserves for its own protection – something it has not been done before and something Mr Mackenzie called a “ballsy move” in terms of enticing a reaction from Israel.
“I don’t know where Iran can go next,” he said.
“That’s the last shot they can fire,” he said, adding that any similar attacks would only deplete Iran’s stocks.
However, he noted a “subtext” to the strikes – those missiles could have a nuclear warhead strapped to the top of them.
As Iran is yet to develop a successful nuclear warhead, that’s not an imminent threat – but it does send a signal.
So what might Israel do next?
The question is whether they respond in a “choreographed” way, Prof Clarke said.
“If it looks choreographed, if it looks as if they’re not trying to do a huge amount of damage… then it may be that this will top it all out, and the Iranians will say ferocious things and won’t do anything [more].”
That’s the best outcome, he said.
After Iran’s April attack on the Nevatim airbase, Israel carried out what Prof Clarke called a largely “symbolic” strike on Iranian air defence radar.
This time could be more severe, with critical Iranian infrastructure, including airbases and nuclear facilities, potentially in the Israeli firing line.
Prof Clarke said: “The worst outcome is that the Israelis… use this as a way of really going for Iranian missile stocks and their launch sites, the command centres, and they open up or threaten to open up a prolonged air war against the Iranians, daring them to try and strike again.”
Additional reporting by Sam Doak
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
World
Russia wants ‘quick peace’ in Ukraine and London is ‘head of those resisting it’, ambassador to UK tells Sky News
Russia wants “quick peace” in Ukraine and London is at the “head of those resisting” it, the Russian ambassador to the UK has told Sky News.
In an interview on The World With Yalda Hakim, Andrei Kelin accused the UK, France and other European nations of not wanting to end the war in Ukraine.
“We are prepared to negotiate and to talk,” he said. “We have our position. If we can strike a negotiated settlement… we need a very serious approach to that and a very serious agreement about all of that – and about security in Europe.”
Russian ambassador Andrei Kelin speaks to Yalda Hakim
US President Donald Trump held a surprise phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin last month, shocking America’s European allies. He went on to call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator” and relations between the pair were left in tatters after a meeting in the Oval Office descended into a shouting match.
Days later, the US leader suspended military aid to Ukraine, though there were signs the relationship between the two leaders appeared to be on the mend following the contentious White House meeting last week, with Mr Trump saying he “appreciated” a letter from Mr Zelenskyy saying Kyiv was ready to sign a minerals agreement with Washington “at any time”.
In his interview with Sky News’ Yalda Hakim, Mr Kelin said he was “not surprised” the US has changed its position on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in 2022, claiming Mr Trump “knows the history of the conflict”.
“He knows history and is very different from European leaders,” he added.
No doubt Russia is welcoming shift in world order
I’ve interviewed the Russian ambassador to the UK, Andrei Kelin, on a number of occasions, at times the conversation has been tense and heated.
But today, I found a diplomat full of confidence and cautiously optimistic.
The optics of course have suddenly changed in Russia’s favour since Donald Trump was elected.
I asked him if Russia couldn’t believe its luck. “I would not exaggerate this too much,” he quipped.
Mr Kelin also “categorically” ruled out European troops on the ground and said the flurry of diplomatic activity and summits over the course of the past few weeks is not because Europeans want to talk to Moscow but because they want to present something to Mr Trump.
He appeared to relish the split the world is witnessing in transatlantic relations.
Of course the ambassador remained cagey about the conversations that have taken place between President Trump and Vladimir Putin.
There is no doubt however that Russia is welcoming what Mr Kelin says is a shift in the world order.
Peace deal ‘should recognise Russian advances’
The Russian ambassador said Moscow had told Washington it believed its territorial advances in Ukraine “should be recognised” as part of any peace deal.
“What we will need is a new Ukraine as a neutral, non-nuclear state,” he said. “The territorial situation should be recognised. These territories have been included in our constitution and we will continue to push that all forces of the Ukrainian government will leave these territories.”
Asked if he thought the Americans would agree to give occupied Ukrainian land to Russia, he said: “I don’t think we have discussed it seriously. [From] what I have read, the Americans actually understand the reality.”
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In full: Russian ambassador’s interview with Sky’s Yalda Hakim
Moscow rules out NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine
He said Russia “categorically ruled out” the prospect of NATO peacekeepers on the ground in Ukraine – a proposal made by UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron – saying “they have no rules of engagement” and so would just be “sitting in cities”.
“It’s senseless” and “not for reality,” Mr Kelin added.
He branded the temporary ceasefire raised by Mr Zelenskyy “a crazy idea”, and said: “We will never accept it and they perfectly are aware of that.
“We will only accept the final version, when we are going to sign it. Until then things are very shaky.”
He added: “We’re trying to find a resolution on the battlefield, until the US administration suggest something constructive.”
World
US ‘destroying’ international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia ‘halfway’, Ukraine’s UK ambassador warns
The United States is “finally destroying” the international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia “halfway”, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK has warned.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi said Washington’s recent actions in relation to Moscow could lead to the collapse of NATO – with Europe becoming Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s next target.
“The failure to qualify actions of Russia as an aggression is a huge challenge for the entire world and Europe, in particular,” he told a conference at the Chatham House think tank.
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“We see that it is not just the axis of evil and Russia trying to revise the world order, but the US is finally destroying this order.”
Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Pic: Reuters
Mr Zaluzhnyi, who took over as Kyiv’s ambassador to London in 2024 following three years as commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, also warned that the White House had “questioned the unity of the whole Western world” – suggesting NATO could cease to exist as a result.
It comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy scrambles to repair relations with US President Donald Trump following a dramatic row between the two men in the Oval Office last week.
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Mr Trump signalled on Tuesday that tensions could be easing, telling Congress he had received a letter from Mr Zelenskyy saying he was ready to sign a peace deal “at any time”.
Zelenskyy and Trump during their extraordinary Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters
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But on the same day, the US president ordered a sudden freeze on shipments of US military aid to Ukraine, and Washington has since paused intelligence sharing with Kyiv and halted cyber operations against Russia.
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Mr Zaluzhnyi said the pause in cyber operations and an earlier decision by the US to oppose a UN resolution condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine were “a huge challenge for the entire world”.
He added that talks between the US and Russia – “headed by a war criminal” – showed the White House “makes steps towards the Kremlin, trying to meet them halfway”, warning Moscow’s next target “could be Europe”.
World
Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh being forced to fight for same military accused of genocide against their people
Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh is a sprawling mass of humanity.Â
It’s a sea of makeshift bamboo shelters, home to more than one million Rohingya refugees – a mainly Muslim minority from Rakhine state in Myanmar.
Some 700,000 fled their homeland back in 2017 – after the Myanmar military massacred thousands.
The army was accused of genocide by the United Nations.
The Rohingya refugees didn’t escape danger though.
Right now, violence is at its worst levels in the camps since 2017 and Rohingya people face a particularly cruel new threat – they’re being forced back to fight for the same Myanmar military accused of trying to wipe out their people.
A child at the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar
Militant groups are recruiting Rohingya men in the camps, some at gunpoint, and taking them back to Myanmar to fight for a force that’s losing ground.
Jaker is just 19.
We’ve changed his name to protect his identity.
He says he was abducted at gunpoint last year by a group of nine men in Cox’s.
They tied his hands with rope he says and took him to the border where he was taken by boat with three other men to fight for the Myanmar military.
“It was heartbreaking,” he told me. “They targeted poor children. The children of wealthy families only avoided it by paying money.”
And he says the impact has been deadly.
“Many of our Rohingya boys, who were taken by force from the camps, were killed in battle.”
Jaker speaks to Sky’s Cordelia Lynch
An aerial view of the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar
The situation in Cox’s is desperate.
People are disillusioned by poverty, violence and the plight of their own people and the civil war they ran from is getting worse.
In Rakhine, just across the border, there’s been a big shift in dynamics.
The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group has all but taken control of the state from the ruling military junta.
Both the military and the AA are accused of committing atrocities against Rohingya Muslims.
And whilst some Rohingya claim they’re being forced into the fray – dragged back to Myanmar from Bangladesh, others are willing to go.
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Teknaf in Cox’s Bazar – where refugees arrive from Myanmar after crossing the Naf River
Some are so aggrieved with the AA, they’re willing to support their former persecutors.
Abu Zar is one of those willing to take up arms.
But not for the military or AA, he says.
Everyone praying in the mosque with him is prepared to go back to protect their own cause he says – not anyone else’s.
“We want to fight for our rights because we have been demanding justice for a long time. But the situation has become unbearable,” he tells me.
Abu Zar has said he is willing to take up arms for his own cause
It’s estimated between 3,000 and 5,000 Rohingya have joined armed groups from this camp.
But the fight they are joining has become increasingly bloody.
In a cramped shelter, we meet Safura.
Safura came under fire as she fled Myanmar
Safura’s son Aman had his foot blown off
Five days ago she managed to get out of Myanmar but she had to be carried part of the way.
Her legs are riddled with bullet wounds and the pain is severe.
Her son, Aman, who lies on the floor next to her, has had his foot blown off.
They were injured she said, during an attack on her family home in the middle of the night.
“They entered our house and shot all my family members. My husband and mother-in-law were killed on the spot.”
The military denies forcing Rohingya to the battlefield. But the camps tell a different story- one of surging violence and vulnerability.
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