Where Iranian missiles struck Israel, what it means – and what could happen next
Iran launched nearly 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday – many were intercepted by Israel’s air defence system, some landed in the sea, and others gouged craters in the earth.
Sky News’ Data and Forensics team looks at what we know about where the strikes were aimed, the damage they caused – and what could happen next.
At least seven impact locations have been identified by Sky News, including two Israeli airbases, a school grounds and two close to the area suspected of housing Mossad’s headquarters.
Iran said the attack was aimed at military bases and carried out in response to the assassinations of three prominent Iranian or Iranian-backed leaders – namely Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) commander Abbas Nilforoushan.
The locations of strike impacts in Israel and the occupied West Bank
Sky News has geolocated three videos that suggest the Nevatim airbase was targeted.
While none prove the base was directly hit, or what damage may have been caused, taken together they strongly suggest missiles landed within its perimeter.
In the footage viewed by Sky News, at least eight missiles were seen to have exploded in the direction of the base. The number of additional rockets visible suggest many more are likely to have impacted.
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Sky News has geolocated three videos that suggest Israel’s Nevatim airbase was targeted in last night’s attack
Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert, which houses Israel’s F-35 fighter jets, was targeted in Iran’s drone and missile barrage in April, carried out in response to an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Missiles were also seen landing in the direction of Tel Nof airbase.
The headquarters of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad appears to have been one of the targets.
Video taken from a car showed an explosion about 700 metres south of the headquarters, with a missile appearing to land next to the road.
There was another near-miss just north of the headquarters. A large crater was seen in the road just over half a kilometre from the building, which lies in the densely-populated suburb of Glilot on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.
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Sky News located evidence of two strike impacts close to suspected Mossad HQ
A crater of that size would not have been caused by fragments of air defence systems, but by a warhead, Forbes McKenzie, chief executive of the McKenzie Intelligence Services, told Sky News.
“A warhead is designed to create a hole in the ground. That’s what it’s for. Whereas a defence system is designed to fragment in the air and spread lots of nasty stuff in the air for the missiles to fly through and basically go off course or be destroyed.
“A big crater in the ground is made by something that’s designed to make a big crater in the ground.”
The shape of the crater is also a clue to what caused it, Sky News’ military analyst Professor Michael Clarke added.
He said: “When debris falls it obviously causes some sort of scarring of the landscape, but a circular crater is a sign of some sort of explosion.”
That explosion could have happened because the warhead worked as intended, or the missile may have been intercepted by the Israeli defence system but exploded on impact, he said.
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Iron Dome is just one part of its air defence system
People look at a crater caused during Iran’s strikes on Tel Aviv. Pic: Reuters
Prof Clarke said he wouldn’t “altogether disbelieve” Iran’s claims to be targeting military facilities, but suggested they had a “wide” interpretation, including related national facilities.
Another video geolocated by Sky News showed a missile falling near Ayalon Mall, a shopping centre in Tel Aviv. The mall is surrounded by wide streets and open car parks.
Interceptions by Israel’s air defence systems, which are intended to destroy missiles or shoot them off-course, make it difficult to know whether the eventual landing sites of missiles or debris were the intended target or not.
Iran claimed 90% of the missiles hit their targets, but Israel said many were intercepted.
While the Iron Dome is the most well-known part of its layered air defence system, Arrow 2 and 3 would have been the main defences against the long-range ballistic missiles launched by Iran.
The system operates outside the atmosphere to intercept and bring down missiles.
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Video also showed two missiles overshooting Tel Aviv and landing in the sea.
In Hod Hasharon, a city in central Israel, about 100 homes were damaged, according to local officials quoted by the Times of Israel.
The newspaper reported a number of homes were seriously damaged and dozens more suffered light damage from shrapnel and falling missile fragments.
A school in the central Israeli town of Gedera, close to the Tel Nof airbase, took a direct hit from at least one missile, blowing open the walls of the ground floor classrooms and leaving a massive crater. No children were at the school at the time of the strike.
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Sky News at school hit by missile
The only reported fatality from Iran’s barrage was a 38-year-old Gazan man who was killed in Jericho in the Jordan Valley by falling missile debris.
CCTV footage showed a large metal tube falling out of the sky and landing on a man walking across a street, apparently killing him instantly.
What could happen next?
Given the Iranians don’t own the GPS system – the Americans do – the accuracy of Tuesday’s strikes is probably as good as Iran can get, according to Mr Mackenzie.
“All they can do is point and shoot.”
While it showed their capability of firing intercontinental missiles, it also demonstrated the limits of their accuracy, “which is why you have to have 200 to have some kind of effect”.
Iran aggressively used a capability that it normally reserves for its own protection – something it has not been done before and something Mr Mackenzie called a “ballsy move” in terms of enticing a reaction from Israel.
“I don’t know where Iran can go next,” he said.
“That’s the last shot they can fire,” he said, adding that any similar attacks would only deplete Iran’s stocks.
However, he noted a “subtext” to the strikes – those missiles could have a nuclear warhead strapped to the top of them.
As Iran is yet to develop a successful nuclear warhead, that’s not an imminent threat – but it does send a signal.
So what might Israel do next?
The question is whether they respond in a “choreographed” way, Prof Clarke said.
“If it looks choreographed, if it looks as if they’re not trying to do a huge amount of damage… then it may be that this will top it all out, and the Iranians will say ferocious things and won’t do anything [more].”
That’s the best outcome, he said.
After Iran’s April attack on the Nevatim airbase, Israel carried out what Prof Clarke called a largely “symbolic” strike on Iranian air defence radar.
This time could be more severe, with critical Iranian infrastructure, including airbases and nuclear facilities, potentially in the Israeli firing line.
Prof Clarke said: “The worst outcome is that the Israelis… use this as a way of really going for Iranian missile stocks and their launch sites, the command centres, and they open up or threaten to open up a prolonged air war against the Iranians, daring them to try and strike again.”
Additional reporting by Sam Doak
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
China put on a show of military strength and diplomatic pulling power in Beijing this week that should worry us all.
At the heart of it was one all-powerful man.
Xi Jinping is emerging as the emperor of a rising China bent on reshaping the world in its image.
He wears the garb of his communist forebears, but he is much more than just another heir to Chairman Mao.
Xi increasingly has more in common with China’s imperial past.
He has disposed of rivals and term-limit rules, making him potentially ruler for life.
Xi believes it is China’s destiny to return to its rightful place as the centre of the world. A new world order dominated by China is approaching he believes, hastened by the Trump administration’s willingness to dismantle the current Pax Americana and western disarray over Ukraine.
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The Chinese weapons that will worry America
China has a right to assert itself more robustly on the world stage, of course, but it’s the manner of that assertion and the risks of collision with the West that should give cause for concern.
Xi has ruthlessly crushed dissent at home with quasi genocidal repression in Xinjiang, a cultural holocaust in Tibet and brutal suppression of human rights in Hong Kong.
Next in his sights is Taiwan. It is claimed by the Chinese communists as part of their One China project.
That opens up one fault line between Xi’s rising China and Western nations.
China’s more and more open support of Putin’s war in Ukraine is of course another.
Western impotence and failure to bring enough pressure on Russia to end the conflict has allowed it to metastasize into a much bigger one.
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The three autocrat amigos in Beijing on Wednesday. Pic: Reuters
On one side in the East, authoritarian governments lining up to support Russia. And on the other, democratic countries supporting Ukraine.
This week’s jamboree of autocrats in Beijing seems to have tipped things more in their favour. Good news for regimes using Orwellian surveillance, censorship, and repression to control their people and keep a grip on power.
Bad news for the rest of us who prefer a future organised around democracy, freedom, and the rule of law.
Dictators rejoice. Democrats beware.
World
‘At night we don’t sleep’: How a West Bank family are facing harassment by young Israeli settlers
The further we go, the rougher the terrain becomes, jolting the car as we drive along a mountain track strewn with rocks.
And then we round a corner and there is a sleeping dog, a circle of chairs and two women smiling and beckoning us to follow them.
This is Fatima and her mother-in-law, Fadda. They live in a makeshift camp perched on a rocky ledge.
Fatima (left) and Fadda say they are afraid their homes could be set alight
Behind their tent is a cave, in which there are chickens and a bed. In front of it is the path where we now stand, and then a precipice that looks down upon a ravine.
They invite us into a tent to talk. Sweet tea is brought out, and so is the story of how their home was demolished, their car stolen, their peace destroyed and why they now have to hide their flock of sheep.
But before all that, Fatima takes us out and points at a ridge behind their camp.
We can see a small black structure, just visible against the dark rock. “That is where they are,” she says. “The settlers come down from there.”
The family say settlers are constantly coming to their camp home to harass them
Every day, people come down to her home. Unwelcome visitors.
“We’d be baking bread, and they would come, lay out their mattresses and just sit there. When we told them to leave, they’d return with more settlers and an armed soldier.”
And the soldier, always, would be on the side of the settlers.
“At night we don’t sleep,” says Fadda, smiling through the pain.
“We stay awake waiting for the settlers. Four or five of them come in their cars each night, sometimes on motorcycles, right up to our doorstep to terrify the children.
“We sit through the night, afraid they’ll set fire to our homes and belongings, trying to force us to flee with our kids.”
We see videos, shared widely on social media, of Fadda confronting a young settler who has come to menace the family.
Fadda confronted a young settler in a video shared on social media
He stands right in front of her, staring her straight in the eyes, trying to push her forward. Fadda responds by standing her ground, smiling gently at him.
“This happens every single day,” says Fatima. “If we didn’t stand up for ourselves, we would have left long ago. The problem is, they’re children.
“They send the kids down on purpose to provoke us, to push us off our land. That’s why we’ve had to build this resilience.”
Fadda says the settlers come ‘right up to our doorstep to terrify the children’
Their tale of suffering is desperate. They tell me the family used to live in a house, which was demolished by the Israel military.
An hour later we drive past its remains – a huge pile of twisted metal and rubble. Their car has been taken so they have to walk to distant shops under the baking sun.
Mobile phones have been stolen along with computers and animals. Their flock of sheep is now kept in another place, hidden from sight.
‘This is our land’
“The situation has become really bad,” says Fatima. “Not just for us, but for the whole West Bank.”
And yet the family is determined to stay. “This is our land,” say both women, almost in unison. The brutal truth is also that they have nowhere else to go.
The West Bank is dotted with Israeli settlements, from top to bottom, some large and long-established, with thousands of residents and a sprawling infrastructure; some small and very new, with just a few caravans parked on a hilltop.
All of them are based on the idea of extending the reach of the Israeli state by placing its people all over the West Bank, or at least turning a blind eye to them moving there.
The fact that these settlements are, by widespread consent, illegal under international law has not stopped them from proliferating. Quite the opposite.
Not only are they growing in number and size, but the Israeli government is lending them ever more support and legitimacy.
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Bezalel Smotrich wants Israel to annex more than 82% of the West Bank. Pic: Reuters
Now, the far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has declared that it’s time for Israel to annex more than 82% of the West Bank.
His logic can be summed up like this: we’re not safe with neighbours like this, and according to the Bible, it should be our land anyway.
Not everyone will agree, and perhaps most outside Israel will strongly disagree, but Smotrich is, as always, unapologetic and unabashed.
“Beyond our Biblical, historical and moral right to the entire land of Israel, the political and security role of sovereignty is to ensure that a Palestinian Arab terror state is never established in our land,” he said.
“Enemies should be fought, not provided with comfortable lives.”
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The West Bank has, for decades, been a crucible for ever-growing mistrust and dislike. It has seen waves of terrible violence and chronic divisions.
There is no sign of things improving, but plenty of suggestions that they are getting worse.
A woman who will appear as Miss Palestine in a global beauty pageant has said she wants to represent her culture and “show the world that we are human beings”.
Nadeen Ayoub told Sky News she wants to “speak up about Palestine and to carry the voices of those that are unheard”.
Speaking on The World With Yalda Hakim, she said she became Miss Palestine in 2022 and will now head to Thailand in November to compete against dozens of others at Miss Universe.
“I don’t want people to be thinking when they hear the word Palestine, to just be thinking of suffering and pain,” said Ms Ayoub.
“So just like we hear the word ‘Italy’ and we think of beautiful things, like the Amalfi Coast and pizza and pasta.
“When we think of other nations, we think of their heritage and their culture and their identity, and we see them as human beings.
“I want the same thing for Palestine to show the world that we are human beings, and that is simply my message.”
Ms Ayoub was partly raised in the US and Canada and now reportedly splits her time between Dubai, Ramallah, and Amman.
She was supposed to compete in Miss Universe following success as Miss Palestine at another pageant in 2022.
However, she told Sky News she delayed her entry until now after the Hamas attack on Israel sparked the Gaza war.
The 27-year-old has been criticised by some for calling the dire situation there a “genocide” during an interview last month. Israel denies all accusations of genocide.
Among her critics is the runner-up in the Miss Israel contest, who questioned Ms Ayoub’s inclusion in November’s pageant and urged her to speak out against Hamas.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
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“Miss Universe stands for unity, peace and co-existence – and if she stands for all of those things then let’s have it,” Adela Cojab Moadeb told the NY Post.
“I would welcome an advocate who stands against extremism and stands for the right of all people to exist.”
Ms Ayoub declined to comment in her Sky News interview, stressing her message is to “show the world that we Palestinians have an identity of creativity, of talents, of heritage, of culture”.
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