Where Iranian missiles struck Israel, what it means – and what could happen next
Iran launched nearly 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday – many were intercepted by Israel’s air defence system, some landed in the sea, and others gouged craters in the earth.
Sky News’ Data and Forensics team looks at what we know about where the strikes were aimed, the damage they caused – and what could happen next.
At least seven impact locations have been identified by Sky News, including two Israeli airbases, a school grounds and two close to the area suspected of housing Mossad’s headquarters.
Iran said the attack was aimed at military bases and carried out in response to the assassinations of three prominent Iranian or Iranian-backed leaders – namely Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) commander Abbas Nilforoushan.
The locations of strike impacts in Israel and the occupied West Bank
Sky News has geolocated three videos that suggest the Nevatim airbase was targeted.
While none prove the base was directly hit, or what damage may have been caused, taken together they strongly suggest missiles landed within its perimeter.
In the footage viewed by Sky News, at least eight missiles were seen to have exploded in the direction of the base. The number of additional rockets visible suggest many more are likely to have impacted.
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Sky News has geolocated three videos that suggest Israel’s Nevatim airbase was targeted in last night’s attack
Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert, which houses Israel’s F-35 fighter jets, was targeted in Iran’s drone and missile barrage in April, carried out in response to an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Missiles were also seen landing in the direction of Tel Nof airbase.
The headquarters of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad appears to have been one of the targets.
Video taken from a car showed an explosion about 700 metres south of the headquarters, with a missile appearing to land next to the road.
There was another near-miss just north of the headquarters. A large crater was seen in the road just over half a kilometre from the building, which lies in the densely-populated suburb of Glilot on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.
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Sky News located evidence of two strike impacts close to suspected Mossad HQ
A crater of that size would not have been caused by fragments of air defence systems, but by a warhead, Forbes McKenzie, chief executive of the McKenzie Intelligence Services, told Sky News.
“A warhead is designed to create a hole in the ground. That’s what it’s for. Whereas a defence system is designed to fragment in the air and spread lots of nasty stuff in the air for the missiles to fly through and basically go off course or be destroyed.
“A big crater in the ground is made by something that’s designed to make a big crater in the ground.”
The shape of the crater is also a clue to what caused it, Sky News’ military analyst Professor Michael Clarke added.
He said: “When debris falls it obviously causes some sort of scarring of the landscape, but a circular crater is a sign of some sort of explosion.”
That explosion could have happened because the warhead worked as intended, or the missile may have been intercepted by the Israeli defence system but exploded on impact, he said.
Read more on this story:
Sky team directly under flight path of Iran’s missiles
Iron Dome is just one part of its air defence system
People look at a crater caused during Iran’s strikes on Tel Aviv. Pic: Reuters
Prof Clarke said he wouldn’t “altogether disbelieve” Iran’s claims to be targeting military facilities, but suggested they had a “wide” interpretation, including related national facilities.
Another video geolocated by Sky News showed a missile falling near Ayalon Mall, a shopping centre in Tel Aviv. The mall is surrounded by wide streets and open car parks.
Interceptions by Israel’s air defence systems, which are intended to destroy missiles or shoot them off-course, make it difficult to know whether the eventual landing sites of missiles or debris were the intended target or not.
Iran claimed 90% of the missiles hit their targets, but Israel said many were intercepted.
While the Iron Dome is the most well-known part of its layered air defence system, Arrow 2 and 3 would have been the main defences against the long-range ballistic missiles launched by Iran.
The system operates outside the atmosphere to intercept and bring down missiles.
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Video also showed two missiles overshooting Tel Aviv and landing in the sea.
In Hod Hasharon, a city in central Israel, about 100 homes were damaged, according to local officials quoted by the Times of Israel.
The newspaper reported a number of homes were seriously damaged and dozens more suffered light damage from shrapnel and falling missile fragments.
A school in the central Israeli town of Gedera, close to the Tel Nof airbase, took a direct hit from at least one missile, blowing open the walls of the ground floor classrooms and leaving a massive crater. No children were at the school at the time of the strike.
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Sky News at school hit by missile
The only reported fatality from Iran’s barrage was a 38-year-old Gazan man who was killed in Jericho in the Jordan Valley by falling missile debris.
CCTV footage showed a large metal tube falling out of the sky and landing on a man walking across a street, apparently killing him instantly.
What could happen next?
Given the Iranians don’t own the GPS system – the Americans do – the accuracy of Tuesday’s strikes is probably as good as Iran can get, according to Mr Mackenzie.
“All they can do is point and shoot.”
While it showed their capability of firing intercontinental missiles, it also demonstrated the limits of their accuracy, “which is why you have to have 200 to have some kind of effect”.
Iran aggressively used a capability that it normally reserves for its own protection – something it has not been done before and something Mr Mackenzie called a “ballsy move” in terms of enticing a reaction from Israel.
“I don’t know where Iran can go next,” he said.
“That’s the last shot they can fire,” he said, adding that any similar attacks would only deplete Iran’s stocks.
However, he noted a “subtext” to the strikes – those missiles could have a nuclear warhead strapped to the top of them.
As Iran is yet to develop a successful nuclear warhead, that’s not an imminent threat – but it does send a signal.
So what might Israel do next?
The question is whether they respond in a “choreographed” way, Prof Clarke said.
“If it looks choreographed, if it looks as if they’re not trying to do a huge amount of damage… then it may be that this will top it all out, and the Iranians will say ferocious things and won’t do anything [more].”
That’s the best outcome, he said.
After Iran’s April attack on the Nevatim airbase, Israel carried out what Prof Clarke called a largely “symbolic” strike on Iranian air defence radar.
This time could be more severe, with critical Iranian infrastructure, including airbases and nuclear facilities, potentially in the Israeli firing line.
Prof Clarke said: “The worst outcome is that the Israelis… use this as a way of really going for Iranian missile stocks and their launch sites, the command centres, and they open up or threaten to open up a prolonged air war against the Iranians, daring them to try and strike again.”
Additional reporting by Sam Doak
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Donald Trump has said Volodymyr Zelenskyy will have to approve a proposed peace plan to end the war in Ukraine.
The controversial 28-point proposal – which would hand swathes of land to Russia and limit the size of Kyiv’s military – closely resembles the Kremlin’s demands.
Mr Zelenskyy has warned he has reservations about the plan, telling Ukrainians in a solemn speech: “Now is one of the most difficult days in our history.”
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Russia-Ukraine peace proposal explained
But Russian President Vladimir Putin has cautiously welcomed the US proposals – and said they “could form the basis for a final peace settlement”.
Speaking to reporters at the White House, Mr Trump appeared to dismiss Mr Zelenskyy’s concerns: “He’ll have to like it… at some point, he’s going to have to accept something.”
The US president went on to reference their now-infamous Oval Office meeting back in February, where he told Ukraine‘s leader “you don’t have the cards”.
Kyiv has been given until Thursday to accept the peace plan – but this deadline could be extended to finalise the terms.
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We face losing major partner or dignity, says Zelenskyy
‘I am highly sceptical it will achieve peace’
Mr Trump has received pushback from members of his own party, with a prominent Republican warning the plan “has real problems”.
Senator Roger Wicker, who chairs the Senate Committee on Armed Services, expressed doubt that the White House proposals would achieve peace.
“Ukraine should not be forced to give up its lands to one of the world’s most flagrant war criminals in Vladimir Putin,” he warned.
Tim Ash from the Chatham House think tank added: “Russia gets everything it wants and Ukraine gets not very much.
“If Zelenskyy accepts this, I anticipate huge political, social and economic instability in Ukraine.”
Analysis: We could all pay if Europe doesn’t step up
The Trump peace plan is nothing of the sort. It takes Russian demands and presents them as peace proposals, in what is effectively a surrender ultimatum for Ukraine.
If accepted, it would reward armed aggression. The principle that even de facto borders cannot be changed by force – sacrosanct since World War Two for very good reasons – will have been trampled on at the behest of the leader of the free world.
According to Reuters, European nations including the UK, France and Germany are now working on a counterproposal with Kyiv.
EU leaders, who were not consulted about the plan, will hold a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in South Africa on Saturday.
Sir Keir Starmer, who spoke to Mr Zelenskyy by phone on Friday, has warned “Russia pretends to be serious about peace, but their actions never live up to their words”.
Ahead of the talks, the prime minister said: “Ukraine has been ready to negotiate for months, while Russia has stalled and continued its murderous rampage. That is why we must all work together, with both the US and Ukraine, to secure a just and lasting peace once and for all. We will continue to coordinate closely with Washington and Kyiv to achieve that.
“However, we cannot simply wait for peace, we must strain every sinew to secure it. We must cut off Putin’s finance flows by ending our reliance on Russian gas. It won’t be easy, but it’s the right thing to do.”
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Inside the Ukraine peace plan
The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said: “We all want this war to end, but how it ends matters. Russia has no legal right whatsoever to any concessions from the country it invaded. This is a very dangerous moment for us all.”
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‘Ukraine may be facing an extremely difficult decision’
During his address, Mr Zelenskyy said he would not betray Ukraine’s national interest – but warned dilemmas lie ahead.
He added: “Either a loss of dignity or the risk of losing a key partner. Either accepting a complicated list of 28 demands or enduring an extremely harsh winter, the harshest yet, with all the risks that follow.
“A life without freedom, without dignity, without justice. And all while being asked to trust someone who has already attacked us twice.”
Pics: Reuters
Washington has reportedly threatened to cut off intelligence sharing and weapons supplies if Kyiv refuses to accept the deal.
The US-backed proposal would require Ukraine to withdraw from territory it still controls in eastern provinces that Russia claims to have annexed – with Russia giving up smaller amounts of land it holds in other regions.
Ukraine would also be permanently barred from joining NATO, and its armed forces would be capped at 600,000 troops.
Sanctions against Russia would also be gradually lifted, with Moscow invited back into the G8 and frozen assets pooled into an investment fund.
World
Ukraine and Europe cannot reject Trump’s plan – they will play for time and hope he can still be persuaded to desert the Kremlin
“Terrible”, “weird”, “peculiar” and “baffling” – some of the adjectives being levelled by observers at the Donald Trump administration’s peace plan for Ukraine.
The 28-point proposal was cooked up between Trump negotiator Steve Witkoff and Kremlin official Kirill Dmitriev without European and Ukrainian involvement.
It effectively dresses up Russian demands as a peace proposal. Demands first made by Russia at the high watermark of its invasion in 2022, before defeats forced it to retreat from much of Ukraine.
Ukraine war latest: Kyiv receives US peace plan
(l-r) Kirill Dmitriev and special envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg in April 2025. Pic: Kremlin Pool Photo/AP
Its proposals are non-starters for Ukrainians.
It would hand over the rest of Donbas, territory they have spent almost four years and lost tens of thousands of men defending.
Analysts estimate at the current rate of advance, it would take Russia four more years to take the land it is proposing simply to give them instead.
It proposes more than halving the size of the Ukrainian military and depriving them of some of their most effective long-range weapons.
And it would bar any foreign forces acting as peacekeepers in Ukraine after any peace deal is done.
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Is Moscow back in Washington’s good books?
The plan comes at an excruciating time for the Ukrainians.
They are being pounded with devastating drone attacks, killing dozens in the last few nights alone.
They are on the verge of losing a key stronghold city, Pokrovsk.
And Volodymyr Zelenskyy is embroiled in the gravest political crisis since the war began, with key officials facing damaging corruption allegations.
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Ukrainian support for peace plan ‘very much in doubt’
The suspicion is Mr Witkoff and Mr Dmitriev conspired together to choose this moment to put even more pressure on the Ukrainian president.
Perversely, though, it may help him.
There has been universal condemnation and outrage in Kyiv at the Witkoff-Dmitriev plan. Rivals have little choice but to rally around the wartime Ukrainian leader as he faces such unreasonable demands.
The genesis of this plan is unclear.
Was it born from Donald Trump’s overinflated belief in his peacemaking abilities? His overrated Gaza ceasefire plan attracted lavish praise from world leaders, but now seems mired in deepening difficulty.
The fear is Mr Trump’s team are finding ways to allow him to walk away from this conflict altogether, blaming Ukrainian intransigence for the failure of his diplomacy.
Mr Trump has already ended financial support for Ukraine, acting as an arms dealer instead, selling weapons to Europe to pass on to the invaded democracy.
If he were to take away military intelligence support too, Ukraine would be blind to the kind of attacks that in recent days have killed scores of civilians.
Europe and Ukraine cannot reject the plan entirely and risk alienating Mr Trump.
They will play for time and hope against all the evidence he can still be persuaded to desert the Kremlin and put pressure on Vladimir Putin to end the war, rather than force Ukraine to surrender instead.
The Eurovision Song Contest is changing its voting system, following allegations of “interference” by Israel’s government this year.
Israeli singer Yuval Raphael received the largest number of votes from the public in the contest in May, ultimately finishing as runner-up after the jury votes were counted.
But a number of broadcasters raised concerns about Israel’s result.
After the final, Irish broadcaster RTE requested a breakdown in voting numbers from contest organiser the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), while Spain’s public broadcaster, Radio Television Espanola (RTVE), called for a “complete review” of the voting system to avoid “external interference”.
In September, Dutch public broadcaster AVROTROS said it could no longer justify Israel‘s participation in the contest, due to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
It went on to say there had been “proven interference by the Israeli government during the last edition of the Song Contest, with the event being used as a political instrument”. The statement did not elaborate on the means of “interference”.
Sky News has contacted the Israeli government for comment.
In early December, the EBU will hold its winter general assembly, with members due to consider the changes, and if not satisfied, vote on Israel’s participation.
Key changes to next year’s competition include:
• Clearer rules around promotion of artists and their songs
• Cap on audience voting halved
• The return of professional juries to semi-finals
• Enhanced security safeguards
Read more: Could Eurovision boycotts over Israel lead to a competition crisis?
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Will Eurovision boycott Israel?
Sanctions threat
The EBU said the tightening of rules around promotion was to “discourage disproportionate promotion campaigns… particularly when undertaken or supported by third parties, including governments or governmental agencies”.
It said that “any attempts to unduly influence the results will lead to sanctions”.
Contest director Martin Green said “no broadcaster or artist may now directly engage with or support campaigns by third parties – including governments or their agencies – that could distort the vote”.
He said the reduction in the number of votes that can be made online, or via SMS or phone call, from 20 to 10 was “designed to encourage more balanced participation”.
He said that “although the number of votes previously allowed did not unduly influence the results of previous contests, there were concerns expressed by participating broadcasters and fans alike”.
Professional juries in semi-finals – and younger jurors
It was also announced that professional juries in the semi-finals would be restored for the first time since 2022, with an expansion to the range of professions from which jurors can be chosen.
The EBU said this will give roughly 50-50 percentage weight between audience and jury votes.
At least two jurors aged 18-25 will be present in every jury, to reflect the appeal of the contest with younger audiences.
Also mentioned were enhanced technical safeguards designed to “protect the contest from suspicious or coordinated voting activity” and strengthen security systems that “monitor, detect and prevent fraudulent patterns”.
Politics making itself heard over Europop lyrics
Mr Green said that the neutrality and integrity of the competition is of “paramount importance” to the EBU, its members, and audiences, adding that the event “should remain a neutral space and must not be instrumentalised”.
Israel’s 2024 representative, Eden Golan. Pic: AP
A vocally apolitical event, world events have dominated Eurovision in recent years.
Russia was banned from the competition in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine.
Israel has competed in Eurovision for more than 50 years and won four times, but there have been ongoing calls to block their participation over the conduct of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government in the Hamas-Israel war.
Israel denies targeting civilians in Gaza and has said it is being unfairly demonised abroad.
In September, Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland, Iceland, and Slovenia threatened to withdraw their participation in Eurovision unless Israel is excluded from the competition.
There were also demonstrations against Israel’s inclusion in Basel, Switzerland, when the 2025 competition took place.
‘Step in right direction’
Responding to the changes, Iceland’s official broadcaster RUV told Sky News they were “a step in the right direction”, and they would be discussing them with their “sister stations in the Nordic countries” ahead of the EBU meeting in December.
Ireland’s official broadcaster RTE told Sky News: “Clearly, events in the Middle East are unfolding day by day. As previously confirmed by the EBU, the issue of participation in the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest has been included on the agenda of the EBU Executive Board’s ordinary Winter General Assembly.”
Sky News has also contacted the official broadcaster for the Netherlands (AVROTROS), Spain (RTVE), Slovenia (RTVSLO), and Israel (Kan) for comment.
The chief executive of Kan, Golan Yochpaz, has previously said the event should not become political and that there is “no reason” why Israel should not be part of it.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Pic: Reuters
Netanyahu praised Israeli entrant
Earlier this year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israel’s 2025 Eurovision entrant Yuval Raphael she had brought the country “a lot of honour” after she finished in second place, adding “you’re the real winner. Statistically, it’s true… You entered the hearts of a huge portion of the public in Europe.”
The year before he told entrant Eden Golan: “I saw that you received almost the highest number of votes from the public and this is the most important thing, not from the judges but from the public, and you held Israel’s head up high in Europe.”
In October, a ceasefire deal was put in place, aimed at bringing an end to the two-year war in the Middle East.
The war began when Hamas stormed into Israel on October 7 2023, killing around 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage.
Israel invaded Gaza in retaliation, with airstrikes and ground assaults devastating much of the territory and killing more than 67,000, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.
Its figures do not differentiate between civilians and combatants, but it says around half of those killed were women and children.
The world’s largest live music event, next year’s contest will be held in Vienna, Austria, in May and will celebrate 70 years of Eurovision.
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