Iran launched nearly 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday – many were intercepted by Israel’s air defence system, some landed in the sea, and others gouged craters in the earth.
Sky News’ Data and Forensics team looks at what we know about where the strikes were aimed, the damage they caused – and what could happen next.
At least seven impact locations have been identified by Sky News, including two Israeli airbases, a school grounds and two close to the area suspected of housing Mossad’s headquarters.
Iran said the attack was aimed at military bases and carried out in response to the assassinations of three prominent Iranian or Iranian-backed leaders – namely Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) commander Abbas Nilforoushan.
Image: The locations of strike impacts in Israel and the occupied West Bank
Sky News has geolocated three videos that suggest the Nevatim airbase was targeted.
While none prove the base was directly hit, or what damage may have been caused, taken together they strongly suggest missiles landed within its perimeter.
In the footage viewed by Sky News, at least eight missiles were seen to have exploded in the direction of the base. The number of additional rockets visible suggest many more are likely to have impacted.
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Sky News has geolocated three videos that suggest Israel’s Nevatim airbase was targeted in last night’s attack
Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert, which houses Israel’s F-35 fighter jets, was targeted in Iran’s drone and missile barrage in April, carried out in response to an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Missiles were also seen landing in the direction of Tel Nof airbase.
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The headquarters of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad appears to have been one of the targets.
Video taken from a car showed an explosion about 700 metres south of the headquarters, with a missile appearing to land next to the road.
There was another near-miss just north of the headquarters. A large crater was seen in the road just over half a kilometre from the building, which lies in the densely-populated suburb of Glilot on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.
Image: Sky News located evidence of two strike impacts close to suspected Mossad HQ
A crater of that size would not have been caused by fragments of air defence systems, but by a warhead, Forbes McKenzie, chief executive of the McKenzie Intelligence Services, told Sky News.
“A warhead is designed to create a hole in the ground. That’s what it’s for. Whereas a defence system is designed to fragment in the air and spread lots of nasty stuff in the air for the missiles to fly through and basically go off course or be destroyed.
“A big crater in the ground is made by something that’s designed to make a big crater in the ground.”
The shape of the crater is also a clue to what caused it, Sky News’ military analyst Professor Michael Clarke added.
He said: “When debris falls it obviously causes some sort of scarring of the landscape, but a circular crater is a sign of some sort of explosion.”
That explosion could have happened because the warhead worked as intended, or the missile may have been intercepted by the Israeli defence system but exploded on impact, he said.
Image: People look at a crater caused during Iran’s strikes on Tel Aviv. Pic: Reuters
Prof Clarke said he wouldn’t “altogether disbelieve” Iran’s claims to be targeting military facilities, but suggested they had a “wide” interpretation, including related national facilities.
Another video geolocated by Sky News showed a missile falling near Ayalon Mall, a shopping centre in Tel Aviv. The mall is surrounded by wide streets and open car parks.
Interceptions by Israel’s air defence systems, which are intended to destroy missiles or shoot them off-course, make it difficult to know whether the eventual landing sites of missiles or debris were the intended target or not.
Iran claimed 90% of the missiles hit their targets, but Israel said many were intercepted.
While the Iron Dome is the most well-known part of its layered air defence system, Arrow 2 and 3 would have been the main defences against the long-range ballistic missiles launched by Iran.
The system operates outside the atmosphere to intercept and bring down missiles.
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Video also showed two missiles overshooting Tel Aviv and landing in the sea.
In Hod Hasharon, a city in central Israel, about 100 homes were damaged, according to local officials quoted by the Times of Israel.
The newspaper reported a number of homes were seriously damaged and dozens more suffered light damage from shrapnel and falling missile fragments.
A school in the central Israeli town of Gedera, close to the Tel Nof airbase, took a direct hit from at least one missile, blowing open the walls of the ground floor classrooms and leaving a massive crater. No children were at the school at the time of the strike.
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Sky News at school hit by missile
The only reported fatality from Iran’s barrage was a 38-year-old Gazan man who was killed in Jericho in the Jordan Valley by falling missile debris.
CCTV footage showed a large metal tube falling out of the sky and landing on a man walking across a street, apparently killing him instantly.
What could happen next?
Given the Iranians don’t own the GPS system – the Americans do – the accuracy of Tuesday’s strikes is probably as good as Iran can get, according to Mr Mackenzie.
“All they can do is point and shoot.”
While it showed their capability of firing intercontinental missiles, it also demonstrated the limits of their accuracy, “which is why you have to have 200 to have some kind of effect”.
Iran aggressively used a capability that it normally reserves for its own protection – something it has not been done before and something Mr Mackenzie called a “ballsy move” in terms of enticing a reaction from Israel.
“I don’t know where Iran can go next,” he said.
“That’s the last shot they can fire,” he said, adding that any similar attacks would only deplete Iran’s stocks.
However, he noted a “subtext” to the strikes – those missiles could have a nuclear warhead strapped to the top of them.
As Iran is yet to develop a successful nuclear warhead, that’s not an imminent threat – but it does send a signal.
So what might Israel do next?
The question is whether they respond in a “choreographed” way, Prof Clarke said.
“If it looks choreographed, if it looks as if they’re not trying to do a huge amount of damage… then it may be that this will top it all out, and the Iranians will say ferocious things and won’t do anything [more].”
That’s the best outcome, he said.
After Iran’s April attack on the Nevatim airbase, Israel carried out what Prof Clarke called a largely “symbolic” strike on Iranian air defence radar.
This time could be more severe, with critical Iranian infrastructure, including airbases and nuclear facilities, potentially in the Israeli firing line.
Prof Clarke said: “The worst outcome is that the Israelis… use this as a way of really going for Iranian missile stocks and their launch sites, the command centres, and they open up or threaten to open up a prolonged air war against the Iranians, daring them to try and strike again.”
Additional reporting by Sam Doak
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
The smell of explosives is still in the air when we arrive.
Hours before, a displacement camp in Atbara housing families who fled the war in Sudan’s capital Khartoum was hit by two drone strikes in a four-pronged attack.
The first bomb on 25 April burned donated tents and killed the children in them.
The second hit a school serving as a shelter for the spillover of homeless families.
Chunks of cement and plaster had been blasted off the walls of the classrooms where they slept when the second explosive was dropped.
Blood marked the entrance of the temporary home closest to the crater.
Inside, shattered glass and broken window frames speak to the force of the explosion. We were told by their neighbours that four people in the family were instantly killed.
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“People were torn apart. This is inhumane,” says their neighbour Mahialdeen, whose brother and sister were injured. “We are praying that God lifts this catastrophe. We left Khartoum because of the fighting and found it here.”
Wiping a tear, he says: “It is chasing us.”
The sanctuary city held by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) about 200 miles northeast of Khartoum has been hit by six drone attacks by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since the start of the year.
These latest strikes are the most deadly.
The drones – known for targeting civilian infrastructure – hit the displacement camp twice, the nearby power station supplying the city with electricity and an empty field with four bombs in the dark, early hours of the morning. First responders have told Sky News that 12 people were killed, including at least two children.
RSF increasingly using drones to carry out attacks
Data from the conflict-monitoring organisation ACLED shows the RSF has carried out increasing numbers of drone attacks across the country.
The most targeted states have been Khartoum and North Darfur, where fighting on the ground has been fierce, as well as Atbara’s River Nile State.
The data suggests that the increase in strikes has been driven by a change in tactics following the SAF’s recapture of Khartoum in late March, with the number of strikes carried out by the RSF spiking shortly after their withdrawal from the capital.
Satellite imagery shows the RSF’s airpower has allowed it to continue to attack targets in and around Khartoum.
Nearby Wadi Seidna Airbase was targeted after the attack on Atbara, with damage visible across a large area south of its airfield.
We were given access to the remains of latest suicide drones launched at Khartoum and could not find discernible signs of commercial origin.
Drone experts told Sky News that they are self-built devices made from generic parts with no identifiable manufacturers for the components.
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Two years of war in Sudan
Drones sighted in South Darfur are consistent with Chinese models
High-resolution satellite images confirm the presence of drones at the RSF-held Nyala Airport.
While the total number of drones kept at this location is unknown, imagery from Planet Labs shows six on 24 April.
This is the highest number of drones observed at the airport, suggesting an increase in the RSF’s available airpower.
The location and number of drones visible in satellite imagery at Nyala Airport has varied over time, suggesting they are in active use.
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2:51
Yousra Elbagir visits wartorn home in Sudan
While it is not possible to determine the exact model of drones sighted at Nyala Airport, a report published by researchers at the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Lab has previously found them to be consistent with the Chinese-produced FH-95.
Analysis carried out by Sky News confirms these findings, with the measurements and visible features matching those of the CH-95 and FH-95. Both designs are produced in China.
The United Arab Emirates is widely accused of supplying Chinese drones to the RSF through South Sudan and Uganda, as well as weapons through Chad. The UAE vehemently denies these claims.
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Sudanese military in presidential palace
Evidence of new airfields
Satellite imagery viewed by Sky News suggests the RSF has worked to increase its air capabilities outside of South Darfur.
In late 2024, five new airstrips appeared in West Kordofan between the contested cities of North Darfur capital Al Fashir and Khartoum.
While the purpose of these airstrips is unknown, it is clear they carry some level of military significance, having been targeted by air in April.
In high-resolution images, no aircraft can be seen. Damage is visible next to a structure that appears to be an aircraft hangar.
The rapid escalation in drone strikes is being brutally suffered on the ground.
In Atbara’s Police Hospital, we find a ward full of the injured survivors.
One of them, a three-year-old girl called Manasiq, is staring up at the ceiling in wide-eyed shock with her head wrapped in a bandage and her feet covered in dried blood.
Her aunt tells us the explosion flung her small body across the classroom shelter but she miraculously survived.
She has shrapnel in her head and clings onto her aunt as her mother is treated for her own injuries in a ward on the first floor.
In a dark room deeper in the ward, a mother sits on the edge of a hospital bed holding her young injured daughter. Her son, only slightly older, is on a smaller adjustable bed further away.
Fadwa looks forlorn and helpless. Her children were spending the night with relatives in the temporary tents when the first strike hit and killed her eight-year-old son.
His surviving sister and brother have been asking after him, but Fadwa can’t bring herself to break the news.
“What can I say? This is our fate. We fled the war in Khartoum but can’t escape the violence,” Fadwa says, staring off in the distance.
A ship carrying humanitarian aid for Gaza has been bombed by drones while it was in international waters.
The Freedom Flotilla Coalition, the NGO responsible for the ship, has pointed the finger at Israel.
Video shows fire raging onboard the vessel, which put out an SOS distress call after it was attacked off the coast of Malta.
It comes as the case against Israel at the International Court of Justice continued this week.
Gaza remains under blockade, with Israel having now refused to allow international aid into the devastated enclave for almost two months despite global outcry.
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The hospital Ghena went to for treatment has been destroyed
Following the drone attack, the Maltese government confirmed that after several hours all crew were safe and the fire was under control.
The Freedom Flotilla Coalition said: “Israeli ambassadors must be summoned and answer to violations of international law, including the ongoing blockade (of Gaza) and the bombing of our civilian vessel in international waters.”
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It asserted that the drone attack “appears to have specifically targeted the ship’s generator” and had left the vessel at risk of sinking.
Describing the attack, it said: “Armed drones attacked the front of an unarmed civilian vessel twice, causing a fire and a substantial breach in the hull.
Image: A five-year-old boy lies on a bed at Nasser Hospital, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip. Pic: Reuters
“The last communication in the early morning of the 2nd of May, indicated the drones are still circling the ship.”
It released video footage shot in the dark that showed lights in the sky in front of the ship and the sound of explosions. The footage also showed the vessel on fire.
The Israeli foreign ministry has not commented on what happened.
Yesterday, UN aid coordinator Tom Fletcher called on Israel to lift the blockade on Gaza, which has been in force for almost two months.
“Yes, the hostages must be released, now. They should never have been taken from their families,” he said.
“But international law is unequivocal: As the occupying power, Israel must allow humanitarian support in.”
Aid should never be a “bargaining chip”, he added.
‘Children going to bed starving’
Juliette Touma, spokesperson for the UN agency for Palestine refugees, UNRWA said: “The siege on Gaza is the silent killer of children, of older people.
“Families – whole families, seven or eight people – are resorting to sharing one can of beans or peas. Imagine not having anything to feed your children. Children in Gaza are going to bed starving.”
Germany’s spy agency has officially classified the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party as an “extremist” organisation.
The party has been growing in popularity and came second in February’s general election.
The country’s domestic intelligence agency said on Friday that it was an extremist entity which threatens democracy.
Its 1,000-page internal report claimed views around ethnicity held by the AfD aim to exclude certain groups from equal participation in society.
“The party’s prevailing understanding of the people based on ethnicity and descent is incompatible with the free democratic basic order,” the agency said in a statement.
“Specifically, the AfD considers, for example, German citizens with a migration background from predominantly Muslim countries not equal members of the ethnically defined German people.”
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AfD’s co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla described the decision as a “serious blow to German democracy”.
In a joint statement on Friday, they said: “The AfD is now being publicly discredited and criminalised as an opposition party shortly before the change of government.
“The associated, targeted interference in the democratic decision-making process is therefore clearly politically motivated. The AfD will continue to defend itself legally against this defamation that jeopardises democracy.”
The party leaders have consistently denied the party is either far right or extremist.
Local branches of the party in the east German states of Thuringia, Saxony, and Saxony-Anhalt had already been classified as extremist by regional spy chiefs.
The entire party was also previously designated “suspected” far-right extremist.
However, the announcement allows intelligence agencies to increase surveillance on the group.
It may also embolden opponents to try to get the party banned.
Image: AfD leader Alice Weidel. Pic: Reuters
Image: Anti-AfD protests in Berlin in February. Pic: Reuters
The decision was welcomed by the country’s interior minister, Nancy Faeser, who said in a statement that the new assessment was “clear and unequivocal”, adding that the party “discriminates against entire segments of the population and treats citizens with a migration background as second-class Germans”.
She underlined that “there has been no political influence on the findings” but said the new classification was likely to be subject to judicial review.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that although the intelligence agency has provided a “very detailed justification” for the decision, “ban proceedings must not be rushed”.
Anton Baron, a regional politician in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, described the decision as “politically questionable”.
While the ruling is a blow for the party, it is unlikely to influence hardcore supporters, many of whom live in states where the party was already designated extremist at a local level.