Where Iranian missiles struck Israel, what it means – and what could happen next
Iran launched nearly 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday – many were intercepted by Israel’s air defence system, some landed in the sea, and others gouged craters in the earth.
Sky News’ Data and Forensics team looks at what we know about where the strikes were aimed, the damage they caused – and what could happen next.
At least seven impact locations have been identified by Sky News, including two Israeli airbases, a school grounds and two close to the area suspected of housing Mossad’s headquarters.
Iran said the attack was aimed at military bases and carried out in response to the assassinations of three prominent Iranian or Iranian-backed leaders – namely Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) commander Abbas Nilforoushan.
The locations of strike impacts in Israel and the occupied West Bank
Sky News has geolocated three videos that suggest the Nevatim airbase was targeted.
While none prove the base was directly hit, or what damage may have been caused, taken together they strongly suggest missiles landed within its perimeter.
In the footage viewed by Sky News, at least eight missiles were seen to have exploded in the direction of the base. The number of additional rockets visible suggest many more are likely to have impacted.
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Sky News has geolocated three videos that suggest Israel’s Nevatim airbase was targeted in last night’s attack
Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert, which houses Israel’s F-35 fighter jets, was targeted in Iran’s drone and missile barrage in April, carried out in response to an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Missiles were also seen landing in the direction of Tel Nof airbase.
The headquarters of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad appears to have been one of the targets.
Video taken from a car showed an explosion about 700 metres south of the headquarters, with a missile appearing to land next to the road.
There was another near-miss just north of the headquarters. A large crater was seen in the road just over half a kilometre from the building, which lies in the densely-populated suburb of Glilot on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.
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Sky News located evidence of two strike impacts close to suspected Mossad HQ
A crater of that size would not have been caused by fragments of air defence systems, but by a warhead, Forbes McKenzie, chief executive of the McKenzie Intelligence Services, told Sky News.
“A warhead is designed to create a hole in the ground. That’s what it’s for. Whereas a defence system is designed to fragment in the air and spread lots of nasty stuff in the air for the missiles to fly through and basically go off course or be destroyed.
“A big crater in the ground is made by something that’s designed to make a big crater in the ground.”
The shape of the crater is also a clue to what caused it, Sky News’ military analyst Professor Michael Clarke added.
He said: “When debris falls it obviously causes some sort of scarring of the landscape, but a circular crater is a sign of some sort of explosion.”
That explosion could have happened because the warhead worked as intended, or the missile may have been intercepted by the Israeli defence system but exploded on impact, he said.
Read more on this story:
Sky team directly under flight path of Iran’s missiles
Iron Dome is just one part of its air defence system
People look at a crater caused during Iran’s strikes on Tel Aviv. Pic: Reuters
Prof Clarke said he wouldn’t “altogether disbelieve” Iran’s claims to be targeting military facilities, but suggested they had a “wide” interpretation, including related national facilities.
Another video geolocated by Sky News showed a missile falling near Ayalon Mall, a shopping centre in Tel Aviv. The mall is surrounded by wide streets and open car parks.
Interceptions by Israel’s air defence systems, which are intended to destroy missiles or shoot them off-course, make it difficult to know whether the eventual landing sites of missiles or debris were the intended target or not.
Iran claimed 90% of the missiles hit their targets, but Israel said many were intercepted.
While the Iron Dome is the most well-known part of its layered air defence system, Arrow 2 and 3 would have been the main defences against the long-range ballistic missiles launched by Iran.
The system operates outside the atmosphere to intercept and bring down missiles.
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Video also showed two missiles overshooting Tel Aviv and landing in the sea.
In Hod Hasharon, a city in central Israel, about 100 homes were damaged, according to local officials quoted by the Times of Israel.
The newspaper reported a number of homes were seriously damaged and dozens more suffered light damage from shrapnel and falling missile fragments.
A school in the central Israeli town of Gedera, close to the Tel Nof airbase, took a direct hit from at least one missile, blowing open the walls of the ground floor classrooms and leaving a massive crater. No children were at the school at the time of the strike.
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Sky News at school hit by missile
The only reported fatality from Iran’s barrage was a 38-year-old Gazan man who was killed in Jericho in the Jordan Valley by falling missile debris.
CCTV footage showed a large metal tube falling out of the sky and landing on a man walking across a street, apparently killing him instantly.
What could happen next?
Given the Iranians don’t own the GPS system – the Americans do – the accuracy of Tuesday’s strikes is probably as good as Iran can get, according to Mr Mackenzie.
“All they can do is point and shoot.”
While it showed their capability of firing intercontinental missiles, it also demonstrated the limits of their accuracy, “which is why you have to have 200 to have some kind of effect”.
Iran aggressively used a capability that it normally reserves for its own protection – something it has not been done before and something Mr Mackenzie called a “ballsy move” in terms of enticing a reaction from Israel.
“I don’t know where Iran can go next,” he said.
“That’s the last shot they can fire,” he said, adding that any similar attacks would only deplete Iran’s stocks.
However, he noted a “subtext” to the strikes – those missiles could have a nuclear warhead strapped to the top of them.
As Iran is yet to develop a successful nuclear warhead, that’s not an imminent threat – but it does send a signal.
So what might Israel do next?
The question is whether they respond in a “choreographed” way, Prof Clarke said.
“If it looks choreographed, if it looks as if they’re not trying to do a huge amount of damage… then it may be that this will top it all out, and the Iranians will say ferocious things and won’t do anything [more].”
That’s the best outcome, he said.
After Iran’s April attack on the Nevatim airbase, Israel carried out what Prof Clarke called a largely “symbolic” strike on Iranian air defence radar.
This time could be more severe, with critical Iranian infrastructure, including airbases and nuclear facilities, potentially in the Israeli firing line.
Prof Clarke said: “The worst outcome is that the Israelis… use this as a way of really going for Iranian missile stocks and their launch sites, the command centres, and they open up or threaten to open up a prolonged air war against the Iranians, daring them to try and strike again.”
Additional reporting by Sam Doak
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
World
Myanmar frees more than 6,000 prisoners as country marks anniversary of independence from Britain
More than 6,000 prisoners have been released in Myanmar as part of an amnesty to mark the 77th anniversary of the country’s independence from Britain.
The head of Myanmar’s military government has granted amnesties for 5,864 prisoners from the Southeast Asian country, as well as 180 foreigners who will now be deported, state-run media said.
The freed inmates included just a small proportion of hundreds of political detainees locked up for opposing army rule since the military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi.
Myanmar’s military takeover in February 2021 was met with a huge nonviolent resistance, which has since developed into a widespread armed struggle.
A released prisoner waves after leaving the jail. Pic: AP
The freeing of prisoners began on Saturday and in Yangon, Myanmar’s largest city, buses took detainees out of the Insein Prison. Many were met by loved ones who eagerly held up signs with their names.
If the freed inmates break the law again, they will have to serve the remainder of their sentences alongside any new ones, the terms of release state.
In another report, MRTV television said government leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has also reduced the life sentences of 144 prisoners to 15 years.
Family members held signs with their loved ones’ names as the buses appeared. Pic: AP
Pic: AP
All other inmates’ sentences have been reduced by one sixth, apart from those convicted under the Explosive Substances Act, the Unlawful Associations Act, the Arms Act and the Counterterrorism Law – all laws which are often used against opponents of military rule.
According to rights organisation the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, 28,096 people have been arrested on political charges since the army takeover, and 21,499 of those remained in jail as of Friday.
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Released prisoners are hugged by loved ones and family. Pic: AP
Zaw Min Tun, a spokesperson for the military government, told journalists those released include about 600 people prosecuted under a law which makes it a crime to spread comments that create public unrest or fear, or spread false news.
There has been no suggestion the releases include that of Myanmar’s former leader Suu Kyi, who – now aged 79 – is serving a 27-year sentence after being prosecuted for a number of politically-tinged charges.
Aung San Suu Kyi. File pic: Reuters
Most of the foreigners being freed are Thai people arrested for gambling in a border town, the spokesperson added.
It is not uncommon for Myanmar to mark holidays and significant occasions with prisoner releases.
The country became a British colony in the late 1800s and regained independence on 4 January 1948.
Drive an hour outside China’s commercial capital Shanghai, and you’ll reach Elon Musk’s Tesla gigafactory.
It manufactures almost one million Tesla cars a year and produces more than half of all its cars worldwide.
But with US president-elect Donald Trump preparing to move into the White House, the relationship between his new buddy Elon Musk and the leadership of China‘s Communist Party is in sharp focus.
Tesla’s Shanghai gigafactory. Pic: Lex Ramsay
Shanghai has been the key to Tesla’s success, largely thanks to the city’s former Communist Party secretary, now China’s premier, Li Qiang.
Chief executive of Shanghai-based Auto Mobility Limited, Bill Russo, says: “Qiang is China’s number two person. His position in Shanghai made everything possible for Tesla.”
He added: “In 2017, China adjusted its policy guidelines for the automotive industry to allow foreign companies to own their factories in China.
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Musk, Trump and China explained
“Tesla signed its deal in 2018, broke ground in 2019, and started producing the Model 3 in 2020.”
The factory opened at breakneck speak and in record time.
In April, Musk met Qiang in Beijing, later posting on X: “Honoured to meet with Premier Li Qiang. We have known each other now for many years, since early Shanghai days.”
Elon Musk met Chinese premier Li Qiang in Beijing in April 2024. Pic: AP
The Musk-China ties go all the way to the top.
When China’s President Xi Jinping visited the US in November 2023 he met Musk, who posted: “May there be prosperity for all” – echoing the language often used by China’s government.
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Inside a Tesla showroom in Shanghai. Pic: Lex Ramsay
Musk has previously weighed into the debate over the status of Taiwan. Two years ago, he suggested tensions could be eased by giving China some control over Taiwan.
This comment incensed Taiwan’s leaders.
Chinese commentator Einar Tangen, from the Taihe Institute in Beijing, says: “If Musk had said anything else, he could face action against the Shanghai plants. He’s not going to endanger that. He’s playing both sides for his own advantage.”
What’s in it for China?
Musk needs China, and in the months to come, China may need Musk.
He could act as a well-connected middleman between the Chinese Communist Party and Trump, in the face of a potential global trade war.
“Like it or not, we are living in a world where China is the dominant player in the race to an electric future,” says Russo.
Musk pioneered the EV industry in China, but is now struggling to compete with local car brands like BYD and Nio.
Elon Musk’s support helped propel Donald Trump to a second term in the White House. Pic: AP
The relationship between Musk and Trump could become volatile, but for now, Musk stands to benefit.
“Donald Trump has never had a problem giving exceptions to friends,” Tangen says.
“It fits his personality, that he can grant pardons and give favours to the people and companies he chooses.”
Musk ‘the pioneer’
Musk is well regarded as a pioneer in China and most people speak of him highly.
Strolling along the Bund waterfront area in Shanghai, Benton Tang says: “Tesla really impacted the entire industry here.
“It pushed people to develop and improve the quality, the design and especially the price.”
Chinese vehicle manufacturers like BYD provide stiff competition for Tesla. Pic: Lex Ramsay
Interest in the Musk family has also gripped China’s online community.
His mother, Maye Musk, frequently visits the country, where she has a huge social media following as a senior-age celebrity fashion icon and endorses several Chinese products including a mattress brand.
Her book, A Woman Makes A Plan, has been translated into Chinese and is a bestseller here.
Maye Musk. Pic: Reuters
Meanwhile, as the countdown to Trump’s inauguration gains pace, the spotlight on the president-elect’s coterie of advisers intensifies.
In the middle of the glare is Elon Musk.
China waits to see what that will mean for them.
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