Where Iranian missiles struck Israel, what it means – and what could happen next
Iran launched nearly 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday – many were intercepted by Israel’s air defence system, some landed in the sea, and others gouged craters in the earth.
Sky News’ Data and Forensics team looks at what we know about where the strikes were aimed, the damage they caused – and what could happen next.
At least seven impact locations have been identified by Sky News, including two Israeli airbases, a school grounds and two close to the area suspected of housing Mossad’s headquarters.
Iran said the attack was aimed at military bases and carried out in response to the assassinations of three prominent Iranian or Iranian-backed leaders – namely Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) commander Abbas Nilforoushan.
The locations of strike impacts in Israel and the occupied West Bank
Sky News has geolocated three videos that suggest the Nevatim airbase was targeted.
While none prove the base was directly hit, or what damage may have been caused, taken together they strongly suggest missiles landed within its perimeter.
In the footage viewed by Sky News, at least eight missiles were seen to have exploded in the direction of the base. The number of additional rockets visible suggest many more are likely to have impacted.
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Sky News has geolocated three videos that suggest Israel’s Nevatim airbase was targeted in last night’s attack
Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert, which houses Israel’s F-35 fighter jets, was targeted in Iran’s drone and missile barrage in April, carried out in response to an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Missiles were also seen landing in the direction of Tel Nof airbase.
The headquarters of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad appears to have been one of the targets.
Video taken from a car showed an explosion about 700 metres south of the headquarters, with a missile appearing to land next to the road.
There was another near-miss just north of the headquarters. A large crater was seen in the road just over half a kilometre from the building, which lies in the densely-populated suburb of Glilot on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.
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Sky News located evidence of two strike impacts close to suspected Mossad HQ
A crater of that size would not have been caused by fragments of air defence systems, but by a warhead, Forbes McKenzie, chief executive of the McKenzie Intelligence Services, told Sky News.
“A warhead is designed to create a hole in the ground. That’s what it’s for. Whereas a defence system is designed to fragment in the air and spread lots of nasty stuff in the air for the missiles to fly through and basically go off course or be destroyed.
“A big crater in the ground is made by something that’s designed to make a big crater in the ground.”
The shape of the crater is also a clue to what caused it, Sky News’ military analyst Professor Michael Clarke added.
He said: “When debris falls it obviously causes some sort of scarring of the landscape, but a circular crater is a sign of some sort of explosion.”
That explosion could have happened because the warhead worked as intended, or the missile may have been intercepted by the Israeli defence system but exploded on impact, he said.
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Sky team directly under flight path of Iran’s missiles
Iron Dome is just one part of its air defence system
People look at a crater caused during Iran’s strikes on Tel Aviv. Pic: Reuters
Prof Clarke said he wouldn’t “altogether disbelieve” Iran’s claims to be targeting military facilities, but suggested they had a “wide” interpretation, including related national facilities.
Another video geolocated by Sky News showed a missile falling near Ayalon Mall, a shopping centre in Tel Aviv. The mall is surrounded by wide streets and open car parks.
Interceptions by Israel’s air defence systems, which are intended to destroy missiles or shoot them off-course, make it difficult to know whether the eventual landing sites of missiles or debris were the intended target or not.
Iran claimed 90% of the missiles hit their targets, but Israel said many were intercepted.
While the Iron Dome is the most well-known part of its layered air defence system, Arrow 2 and 3 would have been the main defences against the long-range ballistic missiles launched by Iran.
The system operates outside the atmosphere to intercept and bring down missiles.
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Video also showed two missiles overshooting Tel Aviv and landing in the sea.
In Hod Hasharon, a city in central Israel, about 100 homes were damaged, according to local officials quoted by the Times of Israel.
The newspaper reported a number of homes were seriously damaged and dozens more suffered light damage from shrapnel and falling missile fragments.
A school in the central Israeli town of Gedera, close to the Tel Nof airbase, took a direct hit from at least one missile, blowing open the walls of the ground floor classrooms and leaving a massive crater. No children were at the school at the time of the strike.
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Sky News at school hit by missile
The only reported fatality from Iran’s barrage was a 38-year-old Gazan man who was killed in Jericho in the Jordan Valley by falling missile debris.
CCTV footage showed a large metal tube falling out of the sky and landing on a man walking across a street, apparently killing him instantly.
What could happen next?
Given the Iranians don’t own the GPS system – the Americans do – the accuracy of Tuesday’s strikes is probably as good as Iran can get, according to Mr Mackenzie.
“All they can do is point and shoot.”
While it showed their capability of firing intercontinental missiles, it also demonstrated the limits of their accuracy, “which is why you have to have 200 to have some kind of effect”.
Iran aggressively used a capability that it normally reserves for its own protection – something it has not been done before and something Mr Mackenzie called a “ballsy move” in terms of enticing a reaction from Israel.
“I don’t know where Iran can go next,” he said.
“That’s the last shot they can fire,” he said, adding that any similar attacks would only deplete Iran’s stocks.
However, he noted a “subtext” to the strikes – those missiles could have a nuclear warhead strapped to the top of them.
As Iran is yet to develop a successful nuclear warhead, that’s not an imminent threat – but it does send a signal.
So what might Israel do next?
The question is whether they respond in a “choreographed” way, Prof Clarke said.
“If it looks choreographed, if it looks as if they’re not trying to do a huge amount of damage… then it may be that this will top it all out, and the Iranians will say ferocious things and won’t do anything [more].”
That’s the best outcome, he said.
After Iran’s April attack on the Nevatim airbase, Israel carried out what Prof Clarke called a largely “symbolic” strike on Iranian air defence radar.
This time could be more severe, with critical Iranian infrastructure, including airbases and nuclear facilities, potentially in the Israeli firing line.
Prof Clarke said: “The worst outcome is that the Israelis… use this as a way of really going for Iranian missile stocks and their launch sites, the command centres, and they open up or threaten to open up a prolonged air war against the Iranians, daring them to try and strike again.”
Additional reporting by Sam Doak
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
World
Vladimir Putin warns US and UK over ‘escalation of aggressive actions’ as new missile hits Ukraine
President Putin has warned he could hit back against countries supplying weapons being used against targets in Russia.
He appeared to be referring to the US and UK, who this week gave Ukraine permission to use long-range missiles over the border.
The Russian president said his military would “respond resolutely in a mirror way” to an “escalation of aggressive actions”.
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“We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against military facilities of the countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities,” Mr Putin said in a TV address.
British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles were fired into Russia for the first time this week, just days after President Biden authorised the same policy shift.
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‘Tense new phase in Ukraine war’
President Putin responded on Thursday by saying his military had tested a new intermediate-range missile in a strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.
The Russian leader called it the Oreshnik, Russian for hazelnut tree, and said air defences wouldn’t be able to destroy it as it travels 10 times the speed of sound.
Ukraine said earlier that a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) might have been used on Dnipro, but the Pentagon said it believed it was an experimental medium-range weapon.
It said Russia had given notice of the launch through nuclear risk reduction channels.
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Putin fires ‘new type of missile’
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, said on Thursday night the use of a new missile was a “clear and severe escalation”, the second this year after North Korean troops were sent to bolster Russian forces.
Mr Zelenskyy urged a stronger response from allies and said on X that the Russian leader was “spitting in the face of those in the world who genuinely want peace to be restored”.
According to public broadcaster Suspilne, a Ukrainian parliamentary sitting scheduled for Friday has been postponed over security concerns, with no more planned until December.
Military experts say modern ICBMs and intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) are extremely difficult to intercept.
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‘The UK is now directly involved in this war’
Meanwhile, Russia’s ambassador told Sky News that Britain’s missile decision had significantly changed its participation in the conflict.
Andrei Kelin said: “Absolutely, Britain and the UK is now directly involved in this war, because this firing cannot happen without NATO staff, British staff as well.”
He called it a “deliberate cheating of us” and said he had received multiple assurances the Storm Shadows would only be used inside Ukrainian territory.
However, Russia has long used Iranian-made drones to attack Ukrainian cities.
The ambassador said the US and UK move “seriously escalates the situation” and the West should carefully consider Russia’s new rules for using nuclear weapons – as underestimating the risk of escalation is “dangerous”.
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Why is there talk of World War Three?
President Putin again raised the spectre of nuclear weapons this week – something he has done multiple times in recent years – when he approved changes that lower the threshold for such a strike.
Many have dismissed the move as empty sabre rattling, but Russia’s ambassador told Sky News he hoped the change “would be carefully considered by Western experts”.
Russia’s defence ministry also claimed on Thursday to have shot down two British-made Storm Shadow missiles, six HIMARS rockets, and 67 drones.
Experts believe the use of Western missiles inside Russia is unlikely to change the course of the war but could put Russian forces in a more vulnerable position and complicate logistics.
A tall man emerged from an array of gym equipment, walking towards me, slightly swaying as his prosthetic leg flexed and stepped in time with his natural one.
His right arm was missing, and his left was a smooth black prosthesis arm with his hands and fingers clenched in a fist.
He was introduced to me as Anton. I wasn’t sure how to greet him other than to say hello.
He saw my hesitation, and smiling he raised his left arm to shake my hand, his fingers opening and closing around my hand as we observed a customary gesture of greeting – a handshake.
His handshake was gentle and completely natural. I was simply amazed. I’ve never seen or experienced anything like it.
“Wow, it works,” I said.
“Yes, it does,” he replied with a smirk, and then carried on walking down the corridor.
This was to be a day of incredible experiences.
We are in the Tytanova Rehabilitation Centre in Kyiv. Much of it is a large gymnasium kitted out with state-of-the-art equipment designed for amputees to keep fit and rehabilitate.
The amputees are all soldiers injured in the war with Russia. These men may never fight again, but they’re in a renewed battle to rebuild their lives, and here they’re being helped with extraordinary technology.
It’s called osseointegration – a titanium implant that is connected to the bone of the patient and the prosthetic arm or leg clicks on to that.
But this is the remarkable bit. The nervous system in their limb is gone so they learn to send messages to their muscles and their new arm or leg comes alive, following instructions from their brain.
The technology was first used in Ukraine a year ago and can be used on all limbs.
We meet Oleksandr Solomiany, 48, who lost his right arm last December in the battle of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. Before the war, he was a tech entrepreneur specialising in the environment.
Oleksandr is still learning how to use his new arm. He walked us through a parking lot and into another building for another training session.
This isn’t a physical training session though, it’s a mental one. He will be practising how to teach his brain to command his muscles to move his bionic arm.
It’s his third session and he says it will take at least two or three more months before he gains the skills to fully operate it.
Oleksandr sits down and takes off his t-shirt, he then removes his bionic arm so that sensory wires can be attached to his amputated arm and to the chest and back muscles surrounding it.
The training session today will be with a bionic prosthetic arm that is not physically attached to him, only wired into him.
“What are you trying to do?” I ask him while he looks at a screen, concentrating hard.
“I imagine that I close my arm and rotate,” he tells me while moving the prosthetic using his brain and chest muscles.
Oleksandr’s trainer Yaroslav Patsukevych is a biomedical engineer who volunteers here.
48-year-old Oleksandr Solomiany who lost his right arm last December in the battle of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine
He explains to me: “You can fool the system to overwrite the muscles that you usually use with your hands, for example, to teach the chest muscles to do the same thing.
“When the patient contracts his muscle, this prosthesis calibrates with his brain and recreates this command with the prosthesis.”
I asked Yaroslav where this prosthesis comes from. He told me the hand is made in Britain, the arm is made in America, and the technology is Swedish.
And the man – I think to myself – is Ukrainian.
Yaroslav Patsukevych (left) is helping Oleksandr learn to use his new limb
For Oleksandr, even though this is mental training it is physically draining. I ask him if it’s a big experience for him, realising that he can actually have an arm that works.
“It’s the first stage of [a] long, long way in my life. It’s only my first prosthesis and technologies never stop. I will expect another technology, like chip in the brain, or something else,” he replies.
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Oleksandr leads a very active life and has no regrets about his battle injury – the focus is now on the future.
“This arm helps me with my routine, with my everyday tasks. I feel better with this arm, like normal people, like a normal man.”
The osseointegration surgery costs £20,000 for each lost limb, while a prosthetic arm or leg costs £80,000.
Viacheslav Zaporozhets (right) founded Tytanova Rehab and also supports evacuations from the frontline
The founder of Tytanova Rehab, Viacheslav Zaporozhets, is a millionaire businessman who wanted to help with the war effort. He fundraises money to help more and more men, and he says the beneficial effects on the amputees are immediate.
“I’ll tell you this, we’re bringing them back to life, even in a psychological sense,” Viacheslav Zaporozhets says.
“I always say, you’re not broken. We’ll teach you how to drive, even how to swim.
“From day one, we demonstrate this. When a new patient arrives, a veteran greets them and shows them what they’ve learned to do.”
A soldier who lost both legs exercises at Tytanova Rehab, Kyiv
He and his organisation don’t just rehabilitate the injured, they also evacuate them from the frontlines.
With their 22 ambulances, they’ve saved the lives of over 30,000 men since the start of the war, bringing them to safety.
The figure is, frankly, mind-blowing.
This war has claimed the lives of huge numbers of fighting men, but the figure itself is not published.
But we do know that the number of living casualties will be much, much higher, and these “bionic men” are just a fraction of them.
World
Arrest warrants issued for Israeli PM Netanyahu and former defence secretary Gallant over alleged war crimes
Arrest warrants have been issued for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence secretary Yoav Gallant by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
The warrants are for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity related to the war in Gaza that Israel launched following the 7 October attacks by Hamas.
The prime minister’s office said the warrants against him and Gallant were “anti-semitic” and said Israel “rejects with disgust the absurd and false actions”.
Another warrant was issued for the arrest of Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al Masri for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Al Masri, also known as Mohammed Deif, was the mastermind behind the 7 October attacks.
It is unclear if he is still alive, following an airstrike that Israel claimed killed him earlier this year.
Neither Israel nor the US are members of the ICC. Israel has rejected the court’s jurisdiction and denies committing war crimes in Gaza.
Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett said the warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant were a “mark of shame” for the ICC.
The court originally said it was seeking arrest warrants for the three men in May for the alleged crimes and today announced that it had rejected challenges by Israel and issued warrants of arrest.
The new UK Labour government said in the summer it would not oppose the ICC’s right to issue the warrants.
Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the UN general assembly. Pic: Reuters
Warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant
In its update, the ICC said it found “reasonable grounds to believe” that Netanyahu and Gallant “bear criminal responsibility” for alleged crimes.
These, the court said, include “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts”.
Netanyahu previously spoke of his “disgust” at the suggestion the ICC would seek an arrest warrant for him.
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A video released by Hamas in 2005 shows a man identified as Mohammed Deif. Pic: AP
Warrant for Hamas leader
The ICC also said it has issued an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Al Masri, saying it has “reasonable grounds to believe” that he is responsible for crimes against humanity including murder, extermination, torture, rape, as well as war crimes including taking hostages.
Discussing the 7 October attacks, the court said: “In light of the coordinated killings of members of civilians at several separate locations, the Chamber also found that the conduct took place as part of a mass killing of members of the civilian population, and it therefore concluded that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the crime against humanity of extermination was committed.”
In its statement, the ICC said the prosecution was not in a position to determine whether Al Masri is dead or alive, so was issuing the arrest warrant.
The court previously said it was seeking an arrest warrant for Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas who was subsequently killed in July.
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