Iran launched nearly 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday – many were intercepted by Israel’s air defence system, some landed in the sea, and others gouged craters in the earth.
Sky News’ Data and Forensics team looks at what we know about where the strikes were aimed, the damage they caused – and what could happen next.
At least seven impact locations have been identified by Sky News, including two Israeli airbases, a school grounds and two close to the area suspected of housing Mossad’s headquarters.
Iran said the attack was aimed at military bases and carried out in response to the assassinations of three prominent Iranian or Iranian-backed leaders – namely Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) commander Abbas Nilforoushan.
Image: The locations of strike impacts in Israel and the occupied West Bank
Sky News has geolocated three videos that suggest the Nevatim airbase was targeted.
While none prove the base was directly hit, or what damage may have been caused, taken together they strongly suggest missiles landed within its perimeter.
In the footage viewed by Sky News, at least eight missiles were seen to have exploded in the direction of the base. The number of additional rockets visible suggest many more are likely to have impacted.
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0:58
Sky News has geolocated three videos that suggest Israel’s Nevatim airbase was targeted in last night’s attack
Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert, which houses Israel’s F-35 fighter jets, was targeted in Iran’s drone and missile barrage in April, carried out in response to an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Missiles were also seen landing in the direction of Tel Nof airbase.
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The headquarters of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad appears to have been one of the targets.
Video taken from a car showed an explosion about 700 metres south of the headquarters, with a missile appearing to land next to the road.
There was another near-miss just north of the headquarters. A large crater was seen in the road just over half a kilometre from the building, which lies in the densely-populated suburb of Glilot on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.
Image: Sky News located evidence of two strike impacts close to suspected Mossad HQ
A crater of that size would not have been caused by fragments of air defence systems, but by a warhead, Forbes McKenzie, chief executive of the McKenzie Intelligence Services, told Sky News.
“A warhead is designed to create a hole in the ground. That’s what it’s for. Whereas a defence system is designed to fragment in the air and spread lots of nasty stuff in the air for the missiles to fly through and basically go off course or be destroyed.
“A big crater in the ground is made by something that’s designed to make a big crater in the ground.”
The shape of the crater is also a clue to what caused it, Sky News’ military analyst Professor Michael Clarke added.
He said: “When debris falls it obviously causes some sort of scarring of the landscape, but a circular crater is a sign of some sort of explosion.”
That explosion could have happened because the warhead worked as intended, or the missile may have been intercepted by the Israeli defence system but exploded on impact, he said.
Image: People look at a crater caused during Iran’s strikes on Tel Aviv. Pic: Reuters
Prof Clarke said he wouldn’t “altogether disbelieve” Iran’s claims to be targeting military facilities, but suggested they had a “wide” interpretation, including related national facilities.
Another video geolocated by Sky News showed a missile falling near Ayalon Mall, a shopping centre in Tel Aviv. The mall is surrounded by wide streets and open car parks.
Interceptions by Israel’s air defence systems, which are intended to destroy missiles or shoot them off-course, make it difficult to know whether the eventual landing sites of missiles or debris were the intended target or not.
Iran claimed 90% of the missiles hit their targets, but Israel said many were intercepted.
While the Iron Dome is the most well-known part of its layered air defence system, Arrow 2 and 3 would have been the main defences against the long-range ballistic missiles launched by Iran.
The system operates outside the atmosphere to intercept and bring down missiles.
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Video also showed two missiles overshooting Tel Aviv and landing in the sea.
In Hod Hasharon, a city in central Israel, about 100 homes were damaged, according to local officials quoted by the Times of Israel.
The newspaper reported a number of homes were seriously damaged and dozens more suffered light damage from shrapnel and falling missile fragments.
A school in the central Israeli town of Gedera, close to the Tel Nof airbase, took a direct hit from at least one missile, blowing open the walls of the ground floor classrooms and leaving a massive crater. No children were at the school at the time of the strike.
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2:34
Sky News at school hit by missile
The only reported fatality from Iran’s barrage was a 38-year-old Gazan man who was killed in Jericho in the Jordan Valley by falling missile debris.
CCTV footage showed a large metal tube falling out of the sky and landing on a man walking across a street, apparently killing him instantly.
What could happen next?
Given the Iranians don’t own the GPS system – the Americans do – the accuracy of Tuesday’s strikes is probably as good as Iran can get, according to Mr Mackenzie.
“All they can do is point and shoot.”
While it showed their capability of firing intercontinental missiles, it also demonstrated the limits of their accuracy, “which is why you have to have 200 to have some kind of effect”.
Iran aggressively used a capability that it normally reserves for its own protection – something it has not been done before and something Mr Mackenzie called a “ballsy move” in terms of enticing a reaction from Israel.
“I don’t know where Iran can go next,” he said.
“That’s the last shot they can fire,” he said, adding that any similar attacks would only deplete Iran’s stocks.
However, he noted a “subtext” to the strikes – those missiles could have a nuclear warhead strapped to the top of them.
As Iran is yet to develop a successful nuclear warhead, that’s not an imminent threat – but it does send a signal.
So what might Israel do next?
The question is whether they respond in a “choreographed” way, Prof Clarke said.
“If it looks choreographed, if it looks as if they’re not trying to do a huge amount of damage… then it may be that this will top it all out, and the Iranians will say ferocious things and won’t do anything [more].”
That’s the best outcome, he said.
After Iran’s April attack on the Nevatim airbase, Israel carried out what Prof Clarke called a largely “symbolic” strike on Iranian air defence radar.
This time could be more severe, with critical Iranian infrastructure, including airbases and nuclear facilities, potentially in the Israeli firing line.
Prof Clarke said: “The worst outcome is that the Israelis… use this as a way of really going for Iranian missile stocks and their launch sites, the command centres, and they open up or threaten to open up a prolonged air war against the Iranians, daring them to try and strike again.”
Additional reporting by Sam Doak
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
The head of the UN has said Israel has only authorised for Gaza what amounts to a “teaspoon” of aid after at least 60 people died in overnight airstrikes.
UN secretary general Antonio Guterres said on Friday the supplies approved so far “amounts to a teaspoon of aid when a flood of assistance is required,” adding “the needs are massive and the obstacles are staggering”.
He warned that more people will die unless there is “rapid, reliable, safe and sustained aid access”.
Image: A woman at the site of an Israeli strike in Jabalia, northern Gaza. Pic: Reuters
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1:44
Gaza: ‘Loads of children with huge burns’
Israel says around 300 aid trucks have been allowed through since it lifted an 11-week blockade on Monday, but according to Mr Guterres, only about a third have been transported to warehouses within Gaza due to insecurity.
The IDF said 107 vehicles carrying flour, food, medical equipment and drugs were allowed through on Thursday.
Many of Gaza’s two million residents are at high risk of famine, experts have warned.
Meanwhile, at least 60 people have been killed by Israeli airstrikes across Gaza overnight.
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Ten people died in the southern city of Khan Younis, and deaths were also reported in the central town of Deir al-Balah and the Jabaliya refugee camp in the north, according to the Nasser, Al-Aqsa and Al-Ahli hospitals where the bodies were brought.
Image: A body is carried out of rubble after an Israeli strike in Jabalia, northern Gaza. Pic: Reuters
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3:08
‘Almost everyone depends on aid’ in Gaza
The latest strikes came a day after two Israeli embassy workers were killed in Washington.
The suspect, named as 31-year-old Elias Rodriguez from Chicago, Illinois, told police he “did it for Gaza”.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Mark Carney of fuelling antisemitism following the shootings.
Mr Netanyahu also accused Sir Keir, Mr Macron and Mr Carney of siding with “mass murderers, rapists, baby killers and kidnappers”.
Image: Palestinians search for casualties in Jabalia, northern Gaza. Pic: Reuters
But UK government minister Luke Pollard told Sky News on Friday morning he “doesn’t recognise” Mr Netanyahu’s accusation.
Earlier this week, Mr Netanyahu said he was recalling negotiators from the Qatari capital, Doha, after a week of ceasefire talks failed to bring results. A working team will remain.
The war in Gaza began when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping 251 others.
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The militants are still holding 58 captives, around a third of whom are believed to be alive, after most of the rest were returned in ceasefire agreements or other deals.
Israel’s offensive, which has destroyed large swaths of Gaza, has killed more than 53,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.
A woman has been arrested after 12 people were reportedly injured in a stabbing at Hamburg’s central train station in Germany.
An attacker armed with a knife targeted people on the platform between tracks 13 and 14, according to police.
They added that the suspect was a 39-year-old woman.
Image: Police at the scene. Pic: AP
Officers said they “believe she acted alone” and investigations into the stabbing are continuing.
There was no immediate information on a possible motive.
The fire service said six of the injured were in a life-threatening condition, three others were seriously hurt, and another three sustained minor injuries, news agency dpa reported.
The attack happened shortly after 6pm local time (5pm UK time) on Friday in front of a waiting train, regional public broadcaster NDR reported.
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A high-speed ICE train with its doors open could be seen at the platform after the incident.
Railway operator Deutsche Bahn said it was “deeply shocked” by what had happened.
In mid-May, the World Health Organisation assessed that there were “nearly half a million people in a catastrophic situation of hunger, acute malnutrition, starvation, illness and death”.
“This is one of the world’s worst hunger crises, unfolding in real time,” its report concluded.
Warning: This article contains images of an emaciated child which some readers may find distressing
Israel‘s decision this week to reverse the siege and allow “a basic level of aid” into Gaza should help ease the immediate crisis.
But the number of aid trucks getting in, so far fewer than 100 per day, is considered dramatically too few by aid organisations working in Gaza, and the United Nations accuses Israel of continuing to block vital items.
“Strict quotas are being imposed on the goods we distribute, along with unnecessary delay procedures,” said UN secretary general Antonio Guterres in New York on Friday.
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“Essentials, including fuel, shelter, cooking gas and water purification supplies, are prohibited. Nothing has reached the besieged north.”
Nineteen of Gaza’s hospitals remain operational, all of them are overwhelmed with the number of patients and a lack of supplies.
Image: Baby Aya at Rantisi hospital in northern Gaza is dangerously thin
“Today, we receive between 300 to 500 cases daily, with approximately 10% requiring admission. This volume of inpatient cases far exceeds the capacity of Rantisi hospital, as the facility is not equipped to accommodate such large numbers,” Jall al Barawi, a doctor at the hospital, told us.
At least 94% of the hospitals have sustained some damage, some considerable, according to the UN.
Image: Jall al Barawi, a doctor at Rantisi hospital
Paramedic crews are close to running out of fuel to drive ambulances.
The lack of food, after an 11-week blockade, has left thousands malnourished and increasingly vulnerable to surviving injuries or recovering from other conditions.
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Our team in Gaza filmed with baby Aya at the Rantisi hospital in northern Gaza. She is now three months old and dangerously thin.
Her skin stretches over her cheekbones and eye sockets on her gaunt, pale face. Her nappy is too big for her emaciated little body.
Image: Aya’s nappy is too big for her emaciated little body.
Lethal spiral
Her mother Sundush, who is only 19 herself, cannot get enough food to produce breastmilk. Baby formula is scarce.
Aya, like so many other young children, cannot get the vital nutrition she needs to grow and develop.
It’s a lethal spiral.
Image: This is what Aya looked like shortly after she was born
“My daughter was born at a normal weight, 3.5kg,” Sundush tells us.
“But as the war went on, her weight dropped significantly. I would breastfeed her, she’d get diarrhoea. I tried formula – same result. With the borders closed and no food coming in, I can’t eat enough to give her the nutrients she needs.”
“I brought her to the hospital for treatment, but the care she needs isn’t available.
“The doctor said her condition is very serious. I really don’t want to lose her, because I lost my husband and she’s all I have left of him. I don’t want to lose her.”
Some of the aid entering Gaza now is being looted. It is hard to know whether that is by Hamas or desperate civilians. Maybe a combination of the two.
The lack of aid creates an atmosphere of desperation, which eventually leads to a breakdown in security as everyone fights to secure food for themselves and their families.
Only by alleviating the desperation can the security situation improve, and the risk of famine abate.