01 October 2024, Israel, Tel Aviv: Missiles launched from Iran are seen in the sky over Tel Aviv.
Ilia Yefimovich/dpa | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Markets are in danger of being “whipsawed” by the combination of regional conflict in the Middle East and rising unemployment in the United States, says Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center.
Most Asian markets fell on Wednesday, tracking losses on Wall Street overnight, as investors fretted over rising tensions in the Middle East.
“The markets really will not know where to turn,” Roach said, adding that conflicts in the Middle East are adding to inflationary risks at a time when global central banks are starting to ease monetary policy.
“We are likely to see significant increases in volatility and markets that really are whipped back and forth dramatically,” Roach told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday.
Oil market impact
The Israel Defense Forces said its troops had started launching new strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon in response to Iran’s missile attack Tuesday night.
It remains to be seen whether there will be lasting effects on inflation, said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander, adding that the oil market will be “affected more significantly” if the tension escalates.
Iran is the third-largest producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumping out nearly four million barrels of oil per day, according to the Energy Information Administration. Oil prices had jumped over 5% after the missile strike before tapering to a 2% climb.
Outlook for interest rates
The Israeli response to Iran’s attacks “might throw the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut off track,” said Kelvin Tay, regional chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.
The U.S. Federal Reserve projected cutting interest rates by another half point over the next two policy meetings this year, according to the central bank’s so-called dot plot from the September meeting.
Traders are also looking to U.S. payroll data on Fridayfor more indications on the state of the economy after the U.S. Federal Reserve’sjumbo rate cut in September. A higher-than-expected unemployment rate could prompt the Fed to accelerate the easing cycle to achieve a soft landing.
The unemployment rate in September is expected to come in at 4.2%, according to data of a Reuters poll on LSEG, unchanged from the August figure. The unemployment rate had jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% in July, a dramatic rise from the five-decade low of 3.4% in April 2023.
Another factor that could affect the Fed’s rate-cutting pace is how long dockworkers’ strikes at the U.S. East and Gulf coasts will last, Tay said.
“Any disruption of the port, any work stoppage at the port is going to have a very significant economic consequence and very quickly,” said Peter Tirschwell of S&P Global Market Intelligence, warning that “the longer this goes on, the quicker the economic damage will mount.”
U.S. President Donald Trump walks as workers react at U.S. Steel Corporation–Irvin Works in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, U.S., May 30, 2025.
Leah Millis | Reuters
President Donald Trump has appointed two Department of Commerce officials to oversee U.S. Steel under the golden share agreement reached with Japan’s Nippon, according to a letter posted Monday in the Federal Register.
Trump approved U.S. Steel’s controversial acquisition by Nippon in June after securing veto rights over key business decisions under a golden share arrangement. U.S. Steel stopped trading on the New York Stock Exchange that same month after the acquisition was completed.
Trump holds the veto powers covered by the golden share as U.S. president, but he can also designate someone else to wield those authorities as his representative if he wants. The president appointed William Kimmitt, Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, as his designee in a letter to U.S. Steel.
“I, President Donald J. Trump, hold the Class G Preferred Stock (Golden Share) in U.S. Steel, pursuant to the National Security Agreement (Agreement) between the United States Government, Nippon Steel Corporation, and U.S. Steel,” Trump said in a Nov. 20 letter to U.S. Steel executive Scot Duncan.
“The Golden Share provides the President with the ability to oversee U.S. Steel’s activities and to ensure the company continues operating its United States-based production facilities,” Trump said.
The golden share allows Trump or his designee to veto decisions that include changing U.S. Steel’s name, moving its headquarters from Pittsburgh, relocating the company outside the U.S., or closing production facilities.
Trump also appointed David Shapiro, a chief counsel at Commerce, as a director on U.S. Steel’s board representing the U.S. government, according to the letter.
The golden share goes to future U.S. presidents or their designee after Trump leaves office.
China’s first all-solid-state production line is up and running. With the equipment in place, GAC Group becomes the first automaker ready to mass-produce the “holy grail” of EV batteries, promising to double range and cut charging time.
China advances all-solid-state EV batteries
It’s no secret by now that China is dominating the global battery market. CATL and BYD alone accounted for over 50% of global EV battery usage through September.
To stay ahead, Chinese automakers and tech leaders are advancing new battery technologies, including all-solid-state batteries.
GAC Group announced over the weekend that it has officially begun producing all-solid-state EV batteries, claiming to be the first in the industry to meet the conditions for mass production.
Advertisement – scroll for more content
The milestone is significant, given that mass production is one of the biggest hurdles holding all-solid-state batteries from hitting the market.
Not only does it require new equipment, but all-solid-state batteries also use a solid electrolyte, which can be costly. GAC Group uses a dry process that combines slurry preparation, coating, and rolling into a single step, saving time and resources.
Aion UT Super (Source: GAC Group)
The production line is already producing EV batteries above 60 Ah. Experts say 60 Ah is needed to use in vehicles. Up until now, most have been around 20-40 Ah.
According to Qi Hongzhong, GAC’s R&D boss, the company plans to begin small-batch vehicle testing by 2026, with mass production scheduled between 2027 and 2030.
(Source: GAC Group)
The new batteries are expected to provide over 1,000 km (621 miles) driving range, more than double the current 500 km (310 miles).
China established the All-Solid-State Battery Collaborative Innovation Platform last year, which unites nearly all battery makers and automakers to bring the new battery tech into mass production.
SAIC Motor also announced over the weekend that it has completed the main production line for its all-solid-state batteries. BYD and CATL aim to begin producing all-solid-state batteries by 2027, with mass production closer toward the end of the decade.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.
For the first time in what feels like forever, Tesla has put a hard date on the arrival of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in Europe. The automaker confirmed that the Dutch vehicle authority (RDW) has committed to granting national approval for the system in February 2026, which is just a few months away.
Update: RDW has denied that it has told Tesla it plans to grant approval in February.
This is a massive development for European Tesla owners who have been stuck with a severely neutered version of Autopilot for years due to restrictive regulations.
Tesla shared the update via its ‘Tesla Europe & Middle East’ account on X, stating that the RDW has “committed to granting Netherlands National approval” next February.
Advertisement – scroll for more content
Rather than waiting for the slow-moving wheels of the entire European Union to turn simultaneously, Tesla is using a “national exemption” route. Once the Netherlands grants this approval, other EU member states can choose to recognize that exemption immediately, effectively creating a domino effect for an EU-wide rollout.
Tesla explained the regulatory hurdle they’ve been facing:
“Some of these regulations are outdated and rule-based, making FSD illegal in its current form. Modifying FSD to make it fully rule-compliant would make it unsafe and unusable in many cases.”
Instead of watering down the software, Tesla is seeking exemptions rule-by-rule. The company notes it has already driven over 1 million kilometers in internal testing across 17 European countries to prove the system’s safety to regulators. However, Tesla didn’t share disengagement data from these 1 million kms.
Tesla has been known to make misleading claims that FSD is safer than humans by releasing misleading crash data that relies on its own crash reporting from customer vehicles, while using police data for the broader comparison fleet, on top of road biases.
Furthermore, even with these flaws, it doesn’t prove that FSD is safer than humans, but that FSD plus humans is safer than just humans, as FSD still requires driver attention at all times. Drivers prevent an unknown number of accidents with the driver assistance system.
Update: RDW responded to Tesla’s announcement with a different view of the situation. The regulator claimed that it has only come up with a schedule for Tesla to be able to demonstrate FSD in February, and hasn’t committed to approving it.
We do not share details about ongoing applications from manufacturers, as this concerns commercially sensitive information. However, we can state that the RDW and Tesla have established a schedule, according to which Tesla is expected to demonstrate in February 2026 that FSD Supervised meets the required standards. Both RDW and Tesla are aware of the efforts needed to reach a decision on this matter in February. Whether this timeline will be met is yet to be determined in the coming period. For the RDW, (road) safety is paramount.
Electrek’s Take
While this is the most serious announcement from Tesla about FSD in Europe, we heard timelines in the past that didn’t pan out.
In early 2022, Musk said that Tesla would launch FSD in Europe that summer. It clearly didn’t happen.
In late 2024, Tesla said it should happen in early 2025, and that didn’t happen either.
Now, if RDW actually said that, it would give a lot more weight to this new timeline.
It should make the few Tesla owners in Europe who bought FSD on HW4 cars happy, but just like what happened in Australia and New Zealand earlier this year, it is also likely to create a situation where the launch confirms that Tesla is not going to deliver its promises to the millions of HW3 owners.
Either way, I don’t think FSD saves Tesla’s freefalling sales in Europe.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.