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A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023. 

Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

Oil markets are being too complacent given the risk of major supply disruptions in the Middle East, analysts told CNBC on Thursday, with one warning that crude futures could rally to more than $200 a barrel.

It comes amid speculation that Israel could be planning to launch a retaliatory attack on Iran targeting its oil infrastructure — a prospect which would likely deliver a rude awakening to bearish energy market participants.

Iran, which is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is a major player in the global oil market. So much so, it is estimated that as much as 4% of the world’s supply could be at risk if Iran’s oil infrastructure becomes a target for Israel.

Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Swedish bank SEB, said escalating tensions in the Middle East could have dramatic consequences for the market.

“If … you really took out the oil installations in Iran, force down the exports by 2 million barrels, then the next question in the market will be what will happen now in the Strait of Hormuz? That, of course, would add a significant risk premium to oil,” Schieldrop said.

Asked the extent to which oil prices could spike in such a scenario, Schieldrop replied, “If you take out installations in Iran, easily you go to $200-plus.”

Situated between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but strategically important waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.

Oil prices could rally above $200 if Iran’s energy infrastructure is wiped out, analyst says

Oil prices have climbed more than 4% since the start of the week as traders have closely monitored elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded more than 2.1% higher at $75.50 per barrel on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures stood at $71.75, over 2.3% higher for the session.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday pledged to respond with force to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, insisting Tehran would “pay” for what he described as a “big mistake.” His comments came shortly after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.

Speaking during a visit to Qatar on Thursday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was “not in pursuit of war with Israel.” He warned, however, of a forceful response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions.

Maxar overview satellite imagery of the Fortune Galaxy Mahshahr Oil Terminal in Iran.

Maxar | Maxar | Getty Images

“It all depends on how the conflict escalates further and I think it goes without saying that Israel is going to retaliate after the latest Iranian attack — and it’s going to happen within, like, five days probably, before the October 7 one-year anniversary,” SEB’s Schieldrop said.

“Is it going to be … a feeble attack, like we saw in April and then all quieting down? Or is it going to be a more violent attack going after military installations, potentially nuclear installations and oil installations are also on the table. This is what is bugging the market at the moment,” he added.

Energy market complacency?

Energy analysts have warned about a prevailing sense of bearish sentiment in the market, even as flaring tensions in the Middle East threaten to reach a new boiling point.

“I do think, from an oil market point of view, the market is so complacent right now,” Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

“And look, since 2019, since Abqaiq, geopolitical risks haven’t resulted in oil supply losses.

She said that since 2019 — when Saudi Arabia shut down half its oil production a drone attack on its Abqaiq oil processing facility — geopolitical risks haven’t actually resulted in supply losses.

“That’s why the market is jaded,” she continued. “It was Abqaiq, it was Russia-Ukraine, but I do think this is a little bit different.”

The 2019 attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Saudi Aramco facilities prompted a sharp rally in oil prices at the time.

Asked about the prospect of Israel launching retaliatory strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, Sen said the U.S. was likely to be unequivocal in its diplomatic messages to the Jewish state.

“That is definitely something every side is talking about, right? The U.S. is involved in this. I don’t think we can forget the fact that we have U.S. elections coming up in days, so I think the message from them very clearly is do not hit energy infrastructure. Equally, do not hit the nuclear facilities,” Sen said.

Meanwhile, John Evans, analyst at oil broker PVM, said in a research note published Thursday that historically, oil prices would have shown a “very different and violent reaction” to missile strikes and bombings in multiple countries in the Middle East.”

“Needless to say, anything around Israel pulls on historical impassioned attitudes, but in oil terms, the involvement of the more influential Iran ought to bring favour for bulls,” Evans said.

“Expansion of war and its damage will need to be proven before oil market participants will shake off the over-riding presence of scepticism,” he added.

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Oil giant BP to sell 65% stake in $10 billion Castrol unit

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Oil giant BP to sell 65% stake in  billion Castrol unit

Britain’s BP has agreed to sell a 65% shareholding in lubricants business Castrol to Stonepeak for $6 billion, months on from the oil giant seeking a buyer for the unit.

The deal comes as the company looks to launch a strategic reset, including a green strategy U-turn and the divestment of $20 billion of assets by the end of 2027. The sale values Castrol at $10.1 billion.

Energy companies, including India’s Reliance Industries and Saudi Arabia’s oil behemoth Aramco, as well as private equity firms Apollo Global Management and Lone Star Funds, had all been touted as suitors for BP’s Castrol unit in May, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter.

“With this, we have now completed or announced over half of our targeted $20bn divestment programme, with proceeds to significantly strengthen bp’s balance sheet,” interim CEO Carol Howle said in a statement.

“The sale marks an important milestone in the ongoing delivery of our reset strategy. We are reducing complexity, focusing the downstream on our leading integrated businesses, and accelerating delivery of our plan.”

BP has the option to sell its remaining 35% stake in Castrol after a two-year lock-up period.

Strategy reset

The Castrol majority stake sale comes days on from the oil giant announcing it was appointing a new CEO — it’s fourth in six years.

Woodside Energy boss Meg O’Neill will take up the role on April 1, replacing Murray Auchincloss, who lasted less than two years in the role.

Stephen Isaacs, strategic advisor at Alvine Capital, which holds a position in BP, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” last week that while BP has been “a very poor performer for a long, long time,” the CEO change could be “the last piece of the jigsaw” in getting its house in order.

“I think there’ll be further stake sales of different parts of BP” going forward, Dan Boardman-Weston, CEO at BRI Wealth Management, told CNBC on Wednesday. The shift will see the company “getting back to their bread and butter of focusing on oil and gas exploration and development.”

The London-listed company has underperformed compared with its peers in recent times, having reported declining annual profits in both 2023 and 2024.

BP’s shares opened at 1.3% on Wednesday before paring gains slightly to last trade 0.9% higher. Its share price is up around 9% so far this year, following a 15.7% drop in 2024. Pressure on the stock eased in 2025 following a leadership shakeup, a cost-cutting program, and a string of oil discoveries.

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China’s mineral dominance gives Western magnet makers a moment in the sun

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China’s mineral dominance gives Western magnet makers a moment in the sun

Annealed neodymium iron boron magnets sit in a barrel at a Neo Material Technologies Inc. factory in Tianjin, China on June 11, 2010.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Rare earth magnet makers are having a moment as Western nations scramble to build domestic “mine-to-magnet” supply chains and reduce their dependence on China.

A turbulent year of supply restrictions and tariff threats has thrust the strategic importance of magnet manufacturers firmly into the spotlight, with rare earths surging toward the top of the agenda amid the U.S. and China’s ongoing geopolitical rivalry.

Magnets made from rare earths are vital components for everything from electric vehicles, wind turbines, and smartphones to medical equipment, artificial intelligence applications, and precision weaponry.

It’s in this context that the U.S., European Union and Australia, among others, have sought to break China’s mineral dominance by taking a series of strategic measures to support magnet makers, including heavily investing in factories, supporting the buildout of new plants, and boosting processing capacity.

The U.S. and Europe, in particular, are expected to emerge as key growth markets for rare earth magnet production over the next decade. Analysts, however, remain skeptical that Western nations will be able to escape China’s mineral orbit anytime soon.

“Frankly, we were the solution to the problem that the world didn’t know it had,” Rahim Suleman, CEO of Canadian group Neo Performance Materials, told CNBC by video call.

Photo taken on Sept. 19, 2025 shows rare-earth magnetic bars at NEO magnetic plant in Narva, a city in northeastern Estonia.

Xinhua News Agency | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images

“The end-market is growing from the point of physics, not software, so therefore it has to grow in this way,” he continued. “And it’s not dependent on any single end market, so it’s not dependent on automotive or battery electric vehicles or drones or wind farms. It’s any energy-efficient motor across the spectrum,” Suleman said, referring to the demand for magnets from fast-growing industries such as robotics.

His comments came around three months after Neo launched the grand opening of its rare earth magnet factory in Narva, Estonia.

Situated directly on Russia’s doorstep, the facility is widely expected to play an integral role in Europe’s plan to reduce its dependence on China. European Union industry chief Stéphane Séjourné, for example, lauded the plant’s strategic importance, saying at an event in early December that the project marked “a high point of Europe’s sovereignty.”

How Europe is scrambling to reduce dependence on China’s rare earths

Neo’s Suleman said the Estonian facility is on track to produce 2,000 metric tons of rare earth magnets this year, before scaling up to 5,000 tons and beyond.

“Globally, the market is 250,000 tons and going to 600,000 tons, so more than doubling in ten years,” Suleman said. “And more importantly, our concentration is 93% in a single jurisdiction, so when you put those two factors together, I think you’ll find an enormously quick growing market.”

‘Skyrocketing demand’

To be sure, the global supply of rare earths has long been dominated by Beijing. China is responsible for nearly 60% of the world’s rare earths mining and more than 90% of magnet manufacturing, according to the International Energy Agency.

A recent report from consultancy IDTechEx estimated that rare earth magnet capacity in the U.S. is on track to grow nearly six times by 2036, with the expansion driven by strategic support and funding from the Department of Defense, as well as increasing midstream activity.

Magnet production in Europe, meanwhile, was forecast to grow 3.1 times over the same time period, bolstered by the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which aims for domestic production to satisfy 40% of the region’s demand by 2030.

Regional composition of rare earths and permanent magnet production in 2024, according to data compiled by the International Energy Agency.

IEA

John Maslin, CEO of Vulcan Elements, a North Carolina-based rare earth magnet producer, told CNBC that the company is seeking to scale up as fast as possible “so that this fundamental supply chain doesn’t hold America back.”

Vulcan Elements is one of the companies to have received direct funding from the Trump administration. The magnet maker received a $620 million direct federal loan last month from the Department of Defense to support domestic magnet production.

“Rare earth magnets convert electricity into motion, which means that virtually all advanced machines and technologies—the innovations that shape our daily lives and keep us safe—require them in order to be operational,” Maslin told CNBC by email.

“The need for high-performance magnets is accelerating exponentially amid a surge in demand and production of advanced technologies, including hard disk drives, semiconductor fabrication equipment, hybrid/electric motors, satellites, aircraft, drones, and almost every military capability,” he added.

Separately, Wade Senti, president of Florida-based magnet maker Advanced Magnet Lab, said the only way to deliver on alternative supply chains is to be innovative.

“The demand for non-China sourced rare earth permanent magnets is skyrocketing,” Senti told CNBC by email.

“The challenge is can United States magnet producers create a fully domestic (non-China) supply chain for these magnets. This requires the magnet manufacturer to take the lead and bring the supply chain together – from mine to magnet to customers,” he added.

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Watch BYD’s insanely fast EV charger add nearly 250 miles range in 5 minutes [Video]

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Watch BYD's insanely fast EV charger add nearly 250 miles range in 5 minutes [Video]

BYD is closing the gap between gas pumps and EV chargers. A new video shows one of its EVs gaining nearly 250 miles (400 km) of range in just five minutes.

BYD’s 5-minute EV charging matches refuel speeds

“The ultimate solution is to make charging as quick as refueling a gasoline car,” BYD’s CEO, Wang Chuanfu, said after unveiling its new Super e-Platform in March.

Chuanfu was referring to the so-called “charging anxiety” that’s holding some drivers back from going electric. BYD’s Super e-Platform is the first mass-produced “full-domain 1000V high-voltage architecture” for passenger vehicles.

BYD also launched its Flash Charging Battery during the event, with charging currents of 1000A and a charging rate of 10C, both new records.

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The ultra-fast charging battery can deliver 1 megawatt (1,000 kW) of charging power, which BYD claims enables EVs equipped with the setup to regain 400 km (248 miles) of CLTC driving range in just 5 minutes of charging.

BYD-EV-charger-5-minutes
BYD CEO Wang Chuanfu unveils Super e-Platform with Flash Charging Battery enabling EVs to add 400 km of range in 5 minutes (Source: BYD)

BYD launched its first vehicles based on the Super e-Platform, the Han L and Tang L, a month later, starting at just 219,800 yuan ($30,000).

With the new models rolling out across China, we are getting a look at the ultra-fast charging speeds in action. A video posted on X by user Dominic Lee shows BYD’s EV charging at up to 746 kW, with an estimated charging time to 70% of around 4 minutes and 40 seconds.

In just six minutes, BYD said the Han L, based on its Super e-Platform, can recharge from 10% to 70%, and in 20 minutes, the battery can be fully charged.

The Tang L SUV, also based on BYD’s 1000V architecture, can add 370 km (230 miles) of range in 5 minutes, while a full charge takes about 30 minutes.

BYD said its Flash Charging Battery enables EVs to gain the same range as a gas-powered vehicle would at the pump, “ultimately making the charging time as short as refueling time.”

Although 400 km (250 miles) is more than enough range for most drivers, BYD is out to make gas stations a thing of the past. And it’s not just in China, BYD plans to bring its Flash Charging system to Europe and likely other overseas markets.

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