Oil market faces a rude awakening if Iran’s energy infrastructure is targeted, analysts say
A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
Oil markets are being too complacent given the risk of major supply disruptions in the Middle East, analysts told CNBC on Thursday, with one warning that crude futures could rally to more than $200 a barrel.
It comes amid speculation that Israel could be planning to launch a retaliatory attack on Iran targeting its oil infrastructure — a prospect which would likely deliver a rude awakening to bearish energy market participants.
Iran, which is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is a major player in the global oil market. So much so, it is estimated that as much as 4% of the world’s supply could be at risk if Iran’s oil infrastructure becomes a target for Israel.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Swedish bank SEB, said escalating tensions in the Middle East could have dramatic consequences for the market.
“If … you really took out the oil installations in Iran, force down the exports by 2 million barrels, then the next question in the market will be what will happen now in the Strait of Hormuz? That, of course, would add a significant risk premium to oil,” Schieldrop said.
Asked the extent to which oil prices could spike in such a scenario, Schieldrop replied, “If you take out installations in Iran, easily you go to $200-plus.”
Situated between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but strategically important waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.
Oil prices have climbed more than 4% since the start of the week as traders have closely monitored elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded more than 2.1% higher at $75.50 per barrel on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures stood at $71.75, over 2.3% higher for the session.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday pledged to respond with force to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, insisting Tehran would “pay” for what he described as a “big mistake.” His comments came shortly after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Speaking during a visit to Qatar on Thursday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was “not in pursuit of war with Israel.” He warned, however, of a forceful response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions.
Maxar overview satellite imagery of the Fortune Galaxy Mahshahr Oil Terminal in Iran.
Maxar | Maxar | Getty Images
“It all depends on how the conflict escalates further and I think it goes without saying that Israel is going to retaliate after the latest Iranian attack — and it’s going to happen within, like, five days probably, before the October 7 one-year anniversary,” SEB’s Schieldrop said.
“Is it going to be … a feeble attack, like we saw in April and then all quieting down? Or is it going to be a more violent attack going after military installations, potentially nuclear installations and oil installations are also on the table. This is what is bugging the market at the moment,” he added.
Energy market complacency?
Energy analysts have warned about a prevailing sense of bearish sentiment in the market, even as flaring tensions in the Middle East threaten to reach a new boiling point.
“I do think, from an oil market point of view, the market is so complacent right now,” Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.
“And look, since 2019, since Abqaiq, geopolitical risks haven’t resulted in oil supply losses.
She said that since 2019 — when Saudi Arabia shut down half its oil production a drone attack on its Abqaiq oil processing facility — geopolitical risks haven’t actually resulted in supply losses.
“That’s why the market is jaded,” she continued. “It was Abqaiq, it was Russia-Ukraine, but I do think this is a little bit different.”
The 2019 attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Saudi Aramco facilities prompted a sharp rally in oil prices at the time.
Asked about the prospect of Israel launching retaliatory strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, Sen said the U.S. was likely to be unequivocal in its diplomatic messages to the Jewish state.
“That is definitely something every side is talking about, right? The U.S. is involved in this. I don’t think we can forget the fact that we have U.S. elections coming up in days, so I think the message from them very clearly is do not hit energy infrastructure. Equally, do not hit the nuclear facilities,” Sen said.
Meanwhile, John Evans, analyst at oil broker PVM, said in a research note published Thursday that historically, oil prices would have shown a “very different and violent reaction” to missile strikes and bombings in multiple countries in the Middle East.”
“Needless to say, anything around Israel pulls on historical impassioned attitudes, but in oil terms, the involvement of the more influential Iran ought to bring favour for bulls,” Evans said.
“Expansion of war and its damage will need to be proven before oil market participants will shake off the over-riding presence of scepticism,” he added.
On today’s exciting episode of Quick Charge, we don’t even mention “you know who,” focusing instead on EV news from Rivian, Lucid, Nissan, Ford, and what it takes to make a MAN in the heavy truck space. Check it out!
Sure, Nissan is pushing back production estimates on its yet-to-begin-production Nissan LEAF and Ford’s EV sales were down significantly in Q2, but there’s more to the story than the “Faux News” crowd would have you believe. Plus: some new electric success stories from Porsche and a disappointing (but still cool) dive into some new home backup battery tech.
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he 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
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Battery electric cars sold today in Europe produce 73% less life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions than gas cars, even when factoring in production, according to new research from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). That’s a big improvement from 2021, when the gap was 59%.
Meanwhile, hybrids and plug-in hybrids haven’t made much progress. The study confirms what clean transportation advocates have been saying for years: If Europe wants to seriously slash emissions from its dirtiest mode of transport – ICE passenger cars, which pump out nearly 75% of the sector’s pollution – it needs to go all-in on battery EVs.
“Battery electric cars in Europe are getting cleaner faster than we expected and outperform all other technologies, including hybrids and plug-in hybrids,” said ICCT researcher Dr. Marta Negri. Credit the continent’s rapid shift to renewables and the higher energy efficiency of EVs.
The makeup of the EU’s power grid is changing fast. By 2025, renewables are expected to generate 56% of Europe’s electricity, up from 38% in 2020. And that’s just the beginning: the share could hit 86% by 2045. Since cars bought today could still be on the road two decades from now, the growing use of clean electricity will only boost EVs’ climate benefits over time.
Gas-powered cars, on the other hand, will stay mostly tied to fossil fuels as the cost and availability of biofuels and e-fuels are still uncertain.
Hybrids and plug-in hybrids only cut lifetime emissions by 20% and 30%, respectively, compared to gas cars. That’s partly because plug-in hybrids tend to run on gas more than expected. So while hybrids aren’t useless, they’re just not good enough if we’re serious about climate goals.
Countering EV myths with hard data
There’s been a lot of noise lately about whether EVs are really that green. The ICCT study takes aim at the bad data and misleading claims floating around, like ignoring how the grid gets cleaner over time or using unrealistic gas mileage figures.
It’s true that manufacturing EVs creates more emissions upfront – about 40% more than making a gas car, mostly due to the battery. But EVs make up for it quickly: that extra emissions load is usually wiped out after about 17,000 km (10,563 miles) of driving, which most drivers hit in a year or two.
“We’ve recently seen auto industry leaders misrepresenting the emissions math on hybrids,” said Dr. Georg Bieker, senior researcher at the ICCT. “But life-cycle analysis is not a choose-your-own-adventure exercise.”
ICCT’s new analysis includes emissions from vehicle and battery production and recycling, fuel and electricity production, and fuel consumption and maintenance. It even adjusts for how the electricity mix will change in the coming years – a key detail when measuring plug-in hybrid performance.
Read more: Volkswagen’s 47% BEV sales jump includes a 24% boost in the US
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![Here's our closest look at the Kia EV2 caught testing in the Alps [Video]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2025/07/Kia-EV2-closest-look.jpeg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
The EV2 may be Kia’s smallest electric vehicle, but it has a big presence on the road. Kia promises it won’t feel so small when you’re inside, thanks to clever storage and flexible seating. After a prototype was spotted testing in the Alps, we are getting our closest look at the Kia EV2 so far.
Kia EV2 spotted in the Alps offers our closest look yet
Kia first unveiled the Concept EV2 during its 2025 EV Day event (see our recap of the event) in April, a preview of its upcoming entry-level electric SUV.
Despite its small size, Kia claims it will “redefine urban electric mobility” with new innovative features and more. Kia has yet to say exactly how big it will be, but given it will sit below the EV3, it’s expected to be around 4,000 mm (157″) in length. The EV3 is 4,300 mm (169.3″) in length.
Looking at it from the side, it sits much higher than you’d expect, similar to Kia’s larger EV9. During an exclusive event at Milan Design Week in April, Kia gave a sneak peek of the interior.
Kia said the interior is inspired by a “picnic in the city,” or in other words, a retreat from the busy city life. With a flat-floor design and flexible seating, you can quite literally have a picnic in the city.
Although we’ve seen the EV2 out in public testing a few times, a new video provides the closest look at Kia’s upcoming electric SUV.
The video, courtesy of CarSpyMedia, shows an EV2 prototype testing in the Alps with European license plates. There’s also a “Testfahrt” sticker on the back, which translates to “Test Car” in German.
As the prototype drives by, you can get a good look at it from all angles. Like in past sightings, the front features stacked vertical headlights with Kia’s signature Star Map lighting. Even the rear lights appear to be identical to those of the concept.
The interior will feature Kia’s next-gen ccNC (connected car Navigation Cockpit) infotainment system. The setup includes dual 12.3″ instrument clusters and infotainment screens in a curved panoramic display. Depending on the model, it could also include an added 5.3″ climate control screen.
Last month, a crossover coupe-like model was spotted on a car carrier in Korea, hinting at a new variant. The new model featured a design similar to that of the Genesis GV60.
Kia’s CEO, Ho Sung Song, also recently told Autocar that a smaller, more affordable EV was in the works to sit below the EV2. Song said the new EV, priced under €25,000 ($30,000), was “one area we are studying and developing.”
With the EV4 and EV5 launching this year, followed by the EV2 in 2026, it could be closer toward the end of the decade before we see it hit the market. Next-gen EV6 and EV9 models are also due out around then.
The Kia EV2 is set to launch in Europe and other global regions in 2026. Unfortunately, it’s not expected to make the trip to the US.
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