Oil market faces a rude awakening if Iran’s energy infrastructure is targeted, analysts say
A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
Oil markets are being too complacent given the risk of major supply disruptions in the Middle East, analysts told CNBC on Thursday, with one warning that crude futures could rally to more than $200 a barrel.
It comes amid speculation that Israel could be planning to launch a retaliatory attack on Iran targeting its oil infrastructure — a prospect which would likely deliver a rude awakening to bearish energy market participants.
Iran, which is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is a major player in the global oil market. So much so, it is estimated that as much as 4% of the world’s supply could be at risk if Iran’s oil infrastructure becomes a target for Israel.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Swedish bank SEB, said escalating tensions in the Middle East could have dramatic consequences for the market.
“If … you really took out the oil installations in Iran, force down the exports by 2 million barrels, then the next question in the market will be what will happen now in the Strait of Hormuz? That, of course, would add a significant risk premium to oil,” Schieldrop said.
Asked the extent to which oil prices could spike in such a scenario, Schieldrop replied, “If you take out installations in Iran, easily you go to $200-plus.”
Situated between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but strategically important waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.
Oil prices have climbed more than 4% since the start of the week as traders have closely monitored elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded more than 2.1% higher at $75.50 per barrel on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures stood at $71.75, over 2.3% higher for the session.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday pledged to respond with force to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, insisting Tehran would “pay” for what he described as a “big mistake.” His comments came shortly after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Speaking during a visit to Qatar on Thursday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was “not in pursuit of war with Israel.” He warned, however, of a forceful response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions.
Maxar overview satellite imagery of the Fortune Galaxy Mahshahr Oil Terminal in Iran.
Maxar | Maxar | Getty Images
“It all depends on how the conflict escalates further and I think it goes without saying that Israel is going to retaliate after the latest Iranian attack — and it’s going to happen within, like, five days probably, before the October 7 one-year anniversary,” SEB’s Schieldrop said.
“Is it going to be … a feeble attack, like we saw in April and then all quieting down? Or is it going to be a more violent attack going after military installations, potentially nuclear installations and oil installations are also on the table. This is what is bugging the market at the moment,” he added.
Energy market complacency?
Energy analysts have warned about a prevailing sense of bearish sentiment in the market, even as flaring tensions in the Middle East threaten to reach a new boiling point.
“I do think, from an oil market point of view, the market is so complacent right now,” Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.
“And look, since 2019, since Abqaiq, geopolitical risks haven’t resulted in oil supply losses.
She said that since 2019 — when Saudi Arabia shut down half its oil production a drone attack on its Abqaiq oil processing facility — geopolitical risks haven’t actually resulted in supply losses.
“That’s why the market is jaded,” she continued. “It was Abqaiq, it was Russia-Ukraine, but I do think this is a little bit different.”
The 2019 attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Saudi Aramco facilities prompted a sharp rally in oil prices at the time.
Asked about the prospect of Israel launching retaliatory strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, Sen said the U.S. was likely to be unequivocal in its diplomatic messages to the Jewish state.
“That is definitely something every side is talking about, right? The U.S. is involved in this. I don’t think we can forget the fact that we have U.S. elections coming up in days, so I think the message from them very clearly is do not hit energy infrastructure. Equally, do not hit the nuclear facilities,” Sen said.
Meanwhile, John Evans, analyst at oil broker PVM, said in a research note published Thursday that historically, oil prices would have shown a “very different and violent reaction” to missile strikes and bombings in multiple countries in the Middle East.”
“Needless to say, anything around Israel pulls on historical impassioned attitudes, but in oil terms, the involvement of the more influential Iran ought to bring favour for bulls,” Evans said.
“Expansion of war and its damage will need to be proven before oil market participants will shake off the over-riding presence of scepticism,” he added.
The redesigned 2026 Genesis GV70 EV is arriving with significant discounts of up to $14,000. Genesis upgraded the luxury electric SUV with a longer driving range and a refined design, both inside and out. Here’s how you can score some savings.
Genesis introduces 2026 GV70 EV discounts
After launching the updated model in Korea earlier this year, the new GV70 EV is now arriving in the US. The new 2026 Genesis Electrified GV70 is an improvement in nearly every way compared to the outgoing model.
Like the gas-powered model, the EV version features a revamped design with a new Crest grille, a revised bumper, and MLA technology added to the Two-Tone headlights.
Inside, the GV70 EV has been “reborn” with more space and luxury. A new 27″ screen combines the infotainment and driver display, while the climate control now has a separate screen. Other premium features like the crystal electronic shift dial remain.
Powered by a larger 84 kWh battery, the new GV70 EV offers a driving range of up to 423 km (263 miles) in Korea, an increase from 400 km (249 miles) in the outgoing model with a 77.4 kWh battery.
Although US specs have yet to be announced, the 2026 model is expected to feature slightly more driving range than the current 236-mile EPA rating for the 2025 GV70. It’s expected to provide closer to 250 miles of range. It will also include an NACS port for charging at Tesla Superchargers.
According to a recent note sent to dealers viewed by CarsDirect, the 2026 Genesis GV70 EV is already available with discounts of up to $14,000 for a 24-month lease.
The savings vary by trim, with up to $3,500 in lease cash available on the Standard trim and up to $ 5,250 on the Advanced trim. Meanwhile, the range-topping Prestige trim features up to $14,000 in lease cash discounts.
Although the discount is significantly higher, the Prestige model also has a higher lease rate of 5.4% compared to 0.1% for the Advanced trim.
If you choose the 36-month loan, lease cash drops to just $500 for the Advanced and $3,250 for the Prestige. The base Standard trim offers no lease cash, but has a lease rate close to 0%. Other special finance rates include 5.99% APR for 60 months and 6.49% for 72-month loans.
The national lease offer is $679 for 36 months based on the Standard trim with an MSRP of $65,830. With $5,999 due at signing, the effective monthly cost is $845. The offer ends on April 30.
If you’re looking for a cheaper lease option, the upgraded 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 is one of the most affordable EV lease deals right now. It starts at just $199 for 24 months with $3,999 due at signing.
Ready to score some savings while they are still here? We can help you get started. You can use our links below to find deals on the Genesis GV70 EV and Hyundai IONIQ 5 in your area.
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The 2025 edition of the ACT Expo hasn’t even started yet, but there’s already at least one big takeaway wort talking about: the Tesla-fighting Windrose electric semi truck from China Belgium is not coming to America … it’s already here. And it’s already in customers’ hands.
The Chinese Belgian heavy truck manufacturer announced plans to build its R700 Class 8 electric truck in the US in a bid to sidestep the heavy tariffs and trade restrictions on imported HDEVs last year – and last week, the company delivered the first-ever all electric, long-haul sleeper truck to a US fleet customer.
The trucks are deployed by JoyRide Logistics, a Phoenix-based carrier and the first US regional trucking company to operate fully electric sleeper trucks on long (-ish) distance routes that include overnight drives. The initial rollout is happening in Arizona, California, and Nevada, with nationwide expansion already “in sight,” according to both companies.
“This isn’t just a prototype or promise-this is a fully operational, long-range electric truck that’s ready to haul freight today,” says Wen Han, founder and CEO of Windrose. “We’ve validated our technology globally and are proud to bring it to the US – one of the most important logistics markets in the world.”
Meeting the needs
JoyRide Logistics LLC partners with a number of its Fortune 500 customers, many of whom have public ESG goals and are actively working to reduce Scope 3 emissions. The integration of the Windrose R700 electric semis into their fleets is a targeted effort to help achieve their stated sustainability goals.
“Partnering with Windrose allows us to stay ahead-not just on sustainability, but on total operational performance,” said Adis Danan, President at JoyRide Logistics. “We’re talking fuel savings, reduced maintenance, and a future-ready fleet that our customers can get behind. We want to make electric logistics efficient, scalable-and cool.”
Windrose brought one of its all-electric R700 Class 8 trucks to this year’s ACT Expo, giving journalists and fleet buyers a chance to see the truck first hand. At last year’s show, Windrose impressed with a preproduction truck featuring what appeared to be a slick UI, well-finished interior, and solid construction.
The R700 packs a 729 kWh battery is reportedly good for about 420 miles of range on a single charge with a full, 49 ton GVW. The company has shown concepts (some renderings, some mules) in long-haul, severe duty, and dump body configurations.
Windrose is backed by HSBC, Citi, Fountainvest, GSR Ventures, HITE Hedge, Goodman Group, and other world-renowned investors, and has now worked with Decathlon, Remy Cointreau, Nestle Wyeth Nutrition, and many other top brands. Watch this space for more.
Electrek’s Take
In a bid to shake the “Chinese truck” stigmas in the west, Windrose has moved its corporate offices and is now based in Antwerp, Belgium – but it doesn’t matter if they say they’re based on Venus. The fact remains they have a capable, competent battery electric sleeper truck in the US and in customers’ hands right now … and they are absolutely full speed ahead.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Windrose; via Access Newswire, CleanTrucking.
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Toyota is preparing to launch two new electric vehicles in China by mid-2026. The flagship Toyota bZ7 and Lexus ES are part of Toyota’s effort to regain market share from domestic electric vehicle (EV) leaders like BYD. Here’s our first look at the sleek new electric cars.
Meet the new Toyota bZ7 and Lexus ES EVs
At Auto Shanghai 2025 last week, Toyota announced plans to expand its electric vehicle (EV) lineup in China. According to Toyota, China is a “highly advanced market that leads the way in electrification.”
To keep pace, Toyota unveiled its new flagship electric sedan, the bZ7. The new bZ7 was developed locally with Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC), Guangzhou Toyota Motor Co, and Intelligent ElectroMobility R&D Center by TOYOTA.
The bZ7 is over 5 meters long and will compete with the BYD Han L, Tesla Model S, BMW i5, and other premium EV models in China.
Toyota said the electric sedan will feature its “safe, reliable, and high-quality manufacturing” while infusing “China’s advanced tech.”
Although no other details were offered, Toyota said its new flagship EV will be equipped with the latest intelligent tech and is expected to launch within a year. The bZ7 will join the bZ4X, bZ3, bZ3X, and bZ5 in Toyota’s expanding EV lineup for China.
Toyota also unveiled the new Lexus ES at the event. The new model will be the first next-gen Lexus with EV and HEV powertrain options.
The eighth-gen ES is based on the LF-ZC concept, marking the beginning of the next generation of Lexus. The EV version will be available with FWD and AWD powertrain options, offering driving ranges of up to 685 km (425 miles) and 610 km (379 miles) on the CLTC cycle, respectively.
Inside, Lexus said the ES will debut with the world’s first Responsive Hidden Switches, which “seamlessly blends physical controls into the interior” for added convenience. It will also include a Lexus-first, Sensory Concierge, for a personalized in-car experience.
Lexus’ new electric sedan is 5,140 mm long, 1,920 mm wide, and 1,560 mm tall, approximately the same size as BYD’s Han L model (5,050 mm long, 1,960 mm wide, and 1,505 mm tall).
The ES is the second of three new Lexus electric vehicles set to debut by March 2026. It will follow the RZ and UX in the luxury brand’s EV lineup for China.
What are your thoughts on the new Toyota bZ7 and Lexus ES? Can they compete in China’s intensifying EV market? Let us know in the comments below.
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