Oil market faces a rude awakening if Iran’s energy infrastructure is targeted, analysts say
A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
Oil markets are being too complacent given the risk of major supply disruptions in the Middle East, analysts told CNBC on Thursday, with one warning that crude futures could rally to more than $200 a barrel.
It comes amid speculation that Israel could be planning to launch a retaliatory attack on Iran targeting its oil infrastructure — a prospect which would likely deliver a rude awakening to bearish energy market participants.
Iran, which is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is a major player in the global oil market. So much so, it is estimated that as much as 4% of the world’s supply could be at risk if Iran’s oil infrastructure becomes a target for Israel.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Swedish bank SEB, said escalating tensions in the Middle East could have dramatic consequences for the market.
“If … you really took out the oil installations in Iran, force down the exports by 2 million barrels, then the next question in the market will be what will happen now in the Strait of Hormuz? That, of course, would add a significant risk premium to oil,” Schieldrop said.
Asked the extent to which oil prices could spike in such a scenario, Schieldrop replied, “If you take out installations in Iran, easily you go to $200-plus.”
Situated between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but strategically important waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.
Oil prices have climbed more than 4% since the start of the week as traders have closely monitored elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded more than 2.1% higher at $75.50 per barrel on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures stood at $71.75, over 2.3% higher for the session.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday pledged to respond with force to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, insisting Tehran would “pay” for what he described as a “big mistake.” His comments came shortly after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Speaking during a visit to Qatar on Thursday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was “not in pursuit of war with Israel.” He warned, however, of a forceful response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions.
Maxar overview satellite imagery of the Fortune Galaxy Mahshahr Oil Terminal in Iran.
Maxar | Maxar | Getty Images
“It all depends on how the conflict escalates further and I think it goes without saying that Israel is going to retaliate after the latest Iranian attack — and it’s going to happen within, like, five days probably, before the October 7 one-year anniversary,” SEB’s Schieldrop said.
“Is it going to be … a feeble attack, like we saw in April and then all quieting down? Or is it going to be a more violent attack going after military installations, potentially nuclear installations and oil installations are also on the table. This is what is bugging the market at the moment,” he added.
Energy market complacency?
Energy analysts have warned about a prevailing sense of bearish sentiment in the market, even as flaring tensions in the Middle East threaten to reach a new boiling point.
“I do think, from an oil market point of view, the market is so complacent right now,” Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.
“And look, since 2019, since Abqaiq, geopolitical risks haven’t resulted in oil supply losses.
She said that since 2019 — when Saudi Arabia shut down half its oil production a drone attack on its Abqaiq oil processing facility — geopolitical risks haven’t actually resulted in supply losses.
“That’s why the market is jaded,” she continued. “It was Abqaiq, it was Russia-Ukraine, but I do think this is a little bit different.”
The 2019 attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Saudi Aramco facilities prompted a sharp rally in oil prices at the time.
Asked about the prospect of Israel launching retaliatory strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, Sen said the U.S. was likely to be unequivocal in its diplomatic messages to the Jewish state.
“That is definitely something every side is talking about, right? The U.S. is involved in this. I don’t think we can forget the fact that we have U.S. elections coming up in days, so I think the message from them very clearly is do not hit energy infrastructure. Equally, do not hit the nuclear facilities,” Sen said.
Meanwhile, John Evans, analyst at oil broker PVM, said in a research note published Thursday that historically, oil prices would have shown a “very different and violent reaction” to missile strikes and bombings in multiple countries in the Middle East.”
“Needless to say, anything around Israel pulls on historical impassioned attitudes, but in oil terms, the involvement of the more influential Iran ought to bring favour for bulls,” Evans said.
“Expansion of war and its damage will need to be proven before oil market participants will shake off the over-riding presence of scepticism,” he added.
Tesla has opened orders for the Model Y Long Range RWD for $45,000 in the US. It’s the new entry-level Model Y following the design refresh earlier this year.
Since launching the updated Model Y earlier this year, Tesla has only offered the best-selling electric SUV in a single Long-Range AWD configuration.
First, it was as a fully-loaded $60,000 Launch Edition, and last month, it started deliveries of the regular Model Y AWD starting at $49,000.
As we recently noted, Tesla didn’t have much of an order backlog for the new Model Y in the US, and it has already started gathering new Model Y AWD in inventory just weeks after launching the vehicle.
Tesla even started offering subsidized financing rates on the new SUV this weekend.
Now, the automaker is starting to take orders for the new Model Y Long Range RWD
The new trim starts at $44,990 and enables 357 miles of range – an extra 30 miles over the AWD version.
However, due to its single motor powertrain, the lower-priced version is slightly slower with a 0-60 mph acceleration in 5.4 seconds rather than 4.6 seconds.
The automaker says that deliveries of the new version will start in the US in the next 3 to 5 weeks. It launched the new Model Y RWD in Europe weeks ago.
Tesla also offers a Standard Range RWD in Europe and China for even cheaper, and deliveries have already started in China.
Electrek’s Take
Tesla appears to have waited to open orders for the Model Y RWD in the US to optimize demand for the Long Range AWD.
But now it needs a cheaper model to sustain demand at the current production rate.
In the coming weeks, it will start building a mix of RWD and AWD in Fremont and Austin to
Interestingly, Tesla currently only offers the subsidized 1.99% financing rate on the Model Y Long Range AWD. I would assume that Tesla plans to take advantage of the boost in demand that the cheaper model will create.
However, US buyers probably won’t have to wait more than a few weeks before Tesla starts to offer lower interest rates on all versions, like it already does in Europe and China.
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![Big Mack, hydrogen Honda, and a ride in the Tesla Semi at ACT Expo 2025 [part 6]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2025/05/act-2025.jpg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
On today’s thrilling episode of Quick Charge, we’ve got some of the highlights of the 2025 ACT Expo, including the all-electric Windrose and Mack Pioneer Class 8s trucks, a hydrogen fuel sell [sic] from Honda, a fun charging surprise, and – after an eight year wait – we finally get a ride in the all-new (in 2017) Tesla Semi!
ACT Expo is North America’s premier clean truck and transport trade show – and for 2025 it was bigger than ever, with more exhibitors and more, more capable battery electric vehicles than ever. The downsides? NACFE have scored with their “messy middle” messaging, and the return of “clean diesel” talking points. We’ve got a brief rundown and links to all the details, below.
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If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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Abundance Energy, sonnen, and Energywell are teaming up to bring smarter, more resilient energy to Texas homes through a huge new virtual power plant (VPP) initiative.
By combining behind-the-meter home batteries, solar power, and advanced energy software, the trio is building a network of connected homes that can work together to support the grid. Customers who install sonnenConnect home batteries through Abundance Energy will now be part of a system that automatically stores and shares power when it’s needed most. That means lower electricity bills, better reliability during extreme weather, and a cleaner energy mix overall.
The VPP will cover all of ERCOT, with the primary focus in the greater Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas. Each home will have two 4.8kW/20kWh sonnenCore+20 battery units. The current customer base that will be enrolled in the VPP equals 60 MWh, and this will continue to grow each month. The VPP is already on track to replace Tesla as the largest virtual power plant in Texas by the end of 2026.
Here’s how it works: The batteries are continuously managed using Energywell’s Proton platform and sonnen’s smart VPP technology. This system monitors solar generation, customer energy use, and real-time electricity prices, and then decides when to charge or discharge each battery. Instead of just sitting idle, these batteries turn into mini power plants that can react to grid needs in real time.
And when thousands of batteries work together, they form a virtual power plant—a decentralized network that reduces the strain on the grid, especially during peak demand or power outages. Unlike traditional power plants, VPPs don’t burn fossil fuels. They use clean, stored electricity from homes and businesses, helping cut carbon emissions while keeping the lights on.
“Our mission is to empower homeowners with smarter, more sustainable energy solutions,” said Thomas Mandry, CEO of Abundance Energy. “This partnership delivers a new kind of VPP model that benefits customers and strengthens the Texas grid.”
Blake Richetta, CEO of sonnen, added, “With Abundance Energy and Energywell, we’re showing how everyday homeowners can become part of the solution to Texas’ energy challenges.”
As Texas continues to face grid reliability issues, especially in extreme heat or cold, this kind of flexible, customer-powered energy system will make homes more resilient and give customers more control over their power.
Read more: The US’s largest virtual power plant now runs on 75,000 home batteries
If you live in an area that has frequent natural disaster events, and are interested in making your home more resilient to power outages, consider going solar and adding a battery storage system. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. They have hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisers to help you every step of the way. Get started here. –trusted affiliate link*
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