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  • Kyle Bonagura, ESPN Staff WriterOct 3, 2024, 09:15 AM ET

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    • Covers college football.
    • Joined ESPN in 2014.
    • Attended Washington State University.

BERKELEY, Calif. — Miles Goodman, a first-year grad student at UC Berkeley, had no idea the chain of events he was about to set off when he opened his photo-editing app late in Cal‘s 21-14 win at Auburn on Sept. 7.

For months, Goodman had interacted with opposing fan bases under the handle @golDonbear on X, and it was normal for him to run into barbs about Cal as a bastion of progressive values. The stereotyping was often meant to be insulting, but it usually just left Goodman amused.

Still, those comments were top of mind as Cal put the finishing touches on a win in which it physically dominated the Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

“I was like, ‘OK, well this thing that you are pushing both Cal as a team and as an institution, why not take it on from a satirical lens?'” Goodman said.

He cobbled together a few poignant photos, slapped on a rainbow and completed his meme with the phrase, “You just lost to the woke agenda.”

When the official Auburn football account posted a final score graphic on X, Goodman reposted it with his work of art. The post went viral, and in the weeks since has been viewed more than 5 million times.

The common sentiment among college football fans: Cal Twitter, I was not familiar with your game.

Goodman’s post was an inflection point in what has led to the Calgorithm, the overarching term that has come to define Cal’s irreverent community of fans whose self-deprecating brand of internetting has generated fresh enthusiasm about the football program as it begins a new life in the ACC.

Armed with basic photo- and video-editing skills, generative AI art tools and the desire to change the perception that people in Berkeley don’t care about football, the Calgorithm is powered by a mix of longtime fans who use their real names and a larger group of mostly anonymous posters, known as “the burners.” Their dedication played a contributing factor in the decision from ESPN’s “College GameDay” to visit Cal this week for the first time.

“It’s not that we changed that much,” a burner known as Admiral Bear told ESPN. “It’s that the national consciousness figured out that we exist and that we’re interesting.”

AUGUST 2023 WAS a particularly stressful month for Cal fans as the Pac-12 collapsed, leaving the Bears and rival Stanford with an uncertain future.

“There was a real fear that Cal football could die,” said Nick Kranz, a lifelong Cal fan and a contributor to the website Write for California. “Either a literal death, like the school decides, ‘This is not worth it and we’re going to stop playing football.’ Or a more figurative death. ‘We’re going to keep doing it in the Mountain West, but we’re going to get no revenue out of it and we’re never going to achieve anything.'”

Anxiety built over several weeks as the Bay Area schools languished in the Pac-12, their conference home for over 100 years, before the ACC formally admitted the pair on the eve of the first weekend of the college football season.

It was a strange development to process. From the press box at Cal’s Memorial Stadium, there is a view of the San Francisco Bay, and on a clear day it’s possible to see beyond the Golden Gate Bridge out to the Pacific Ocean. Yet, the stadium would now host games in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

“Cal in the ACC is very strange,” said Avinash Kunnath, another prominent member of Cal’s online community who has written about the Bears for years. “There’s no two ways around it. And it’s not going to be something that’s going to be easy for a lot of older [fans] or people who have been in the Pac-12 for 50 years. But I think the one thing our community has done is — we live in the weird.”

Most importantly, the move secured a place in a power conference, but it also led to this opportunity for fans to engage in circles of the internet they wouldn’t have meandered to before. In the Pac-12, everything was familiar and there was monotony that came with that. In the ACC, Cal arrived with an element of intrigue for opposing fans, many of whom were unfamiliar with the school beyond its left-wing reputation.

For Cal fans, that dynamic turned into an opportunity.

“We embraced our identity, we started to get more comfortable with the woke stuff and all the things that come with the political side of things, but we didn’t make it super serious,” Kunnath said. “We just kept it kind of lighthearted. We poke fun at ourselves a lot, and we didn’t run from our identity.”

Added Kranz: “Cal gets the ACC lifeline and a bunch of people online who just love Cal football have decided, ‘We are going to save Cal football through the sheer force of our vibes.'”

Considering how diametrically opposed Berkeley and Auburn, Alabama, are on the political spectrum, it was only natural for that to fuel the online banter leading up to and through the game. But as Cal fans playfully leaned into their own stereotypes, there was an disarming effect that welcomed anyone — including Auburn fans — to get in on the joke.

Their tone wasn’t universally adored, but it was clear they tapped into something fun and different. Goodman’s post was far from the only one that played with that theme, but its timing and execution made the most of the moment.

“That particular joke really hit on a nerve where it’s like, ‘OK, we’re going to reappropriate the fact that you are looking down on us as lesser college football fans and you just lost to those lesser college football fans,” Kranz said. “If you’re going to make us a joke, then we’re going to run with that joke and we’re going to be the woke mob that can win football games and also go to goofy protests and hug the trees and whatever other silly stereotype that you like to make about Berkeley.”

In the wake of the Auburn game, the community grew.

“I actually made my account that I use now — @wokemobfootball — right after the Auburn game and just went deep into it,” a new burner, known as Callie, told ESPN. “I just happened to get lucky, saw a post, and the algorithm decided I needed more of it. And then I realized, ‘Oh, this is something I really like. I’m going to go all the way in.'”

Callie grew up going to Cal games with her father and in the past had occasionally waded into Cal Twitter from her main account — the one she uses her real name with — but she could sense there was a movement afoot. The more absurd the joke, the better.

As more people got involved, the more coordinated everything became. A group chat within X includes more than 100 burners who share ideas and provide feedback for one another.

Momentum continued to build as Cal beat San Diego State 21-0, but it was the following week when things reached a new level, as the Bears prepared for their ACC debut against Florida State in Tallahassee.

A visit to Florida’s state capital offered another opportunity to poke fun at the contrast in political viewpoints, and the Calgorithm took advantage. Name the stereotype, the burners embraced it.

Callie started an official tongue-in-cheek Change.org petition that called for FSU to change its mascot from the Seminoles to the Manatees.

“The Manatee–a graceful and majestic creature–aligns much better with Florida State’s football team and fandom,” the petition reads.

There was an onslaught of generative AI images. Those without editing skills realized the barrier for entry to fire off their own contributions wasn’t very steep. All they needed was a couple of minutes and a finely tuned prompt and any number of online tools could spit back an image to match their vision.

For the team, the trip to Tallahassee ended poorly. Cal outgained FSU 410-284, but its offense was a disaster in the red zone, and the Bears failed to score a touchdown in a 14-9 loss. This could have been the moment for Cal fans to abandon ship and let the Calgorithm fade back into obscurity.

Instead, the opposite happened.

The Calgorithm doubled down headed into the bye week with the hope of luring “GameDay” to campus with top-10 Miami headed to Berkeley on Oct. 5.

FOR WEEKS, CAL’S fans had joked that the song “Hot to Go!” by Chappell Roan could be reworked as “Ott to Go,” a nod to the Bears’ star running back Jaydn Ott. But as the Calgorithm became more ambitious, the joke became a real endeavor.

“A friend of mine was like, ‘I’m going to commission a singer and we’re going to make ‘Ott to Go’ happen,” Admiral Bear said. “And I’m just like, ‘That’s a big move. But if you’re going to put up the money for it, that’s cool.'”

But when Admiral Bear looked at the lyrics, he wasn’t feeling them and decided to take his own stab.

“I punched out some lyrics and sent it to him, and he is like, ‘That’s a thousand percent better. We’re absolutely going with that,'” Admiral Bear said. “We workshopped the lyrics a little bit, refined things here and there. He got demos from three different singers, and we picked the one we liked the best and sent her the lyrics. And a couple days later, she sent us the file.”

The commission cost a little more than $300 and the Swedish singer, Micky Hage, had been previously unaware that Cal football even existed. After she finished recording, she learned more about the Bears, including the fact that their mascot and her boyfriend go by the same name: Oski.

Callie had volunteered to make an accompanying music video and on Friday worked on it past 3 a.m. The completed version was well received when it posted Saturday, reflecting another step forward by the Calgorithm.

At work Monday, a co-worker went by Callie’s desk specifically to show her the “Ott to Go” video.

“He’s a Cal alum and he showed it to me, and I kept quiet,” she said. “He was like, ‘This is so funny. Did you know about Cal Twitter?’ I was like, ‘Oh, yeah, I’ve heard of that.’

“I did send it to my dad and said, ‘Hey, I made this,’ but definitely not to my co-workers. I don’t need them knowing about my burner account.”

ON THE SAME day the “Ott to Go” video posted, “GameDay” announced it was headed to Berkeley. Segments of the Calgorithm had been lobbying for the show since the FSU loss and there was some cautious optimism after Miami stayed undefeated Friday night through a controversial ending against Virginia Tech.

“I was at Target in Emeryville when I found out,” Goodman said. “I did a backflip in the parking lot. Literally a backflip. The last time I ever hit a backflip was like eight years ago when I was doing gymnastics.”

Without the enthusiasm from the Calgorithm, it’s hard to gauge how appealing Berkeley would have been for the show. What’s clear is there is a correlation between what’s happening online and real-world benefits.

After “GameDay” announced it was coming, the California Legends Collective announced an inspired anonymous donor was willing to match up to $1 million in donations ahead of the Miami game, and in the first 36 hours the collective received more than $300,000 in pledges.

“Having a bunch of super-smart, super-engaged, super-creative people lending their voices to this and kind of raising awareness of Cal football has been a godsend,” said Kevin Kennedy, the collective’s executive director. “We don’t have this million-dollar match without ‘GameDay.’ So if we’re kind of saying that the Calgorithm brought us ‘GameDay,’ then the Calgorithm brought us a million dollars and counting.”

“We’re going to hit the million-dollar match. I think the only question is how much we’re going to go over the million-dollar match. So we’ll have at least $2 million more in NIL than we would’ve without this happening. So it’s been terrific.”

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MLB September predictions: From best record to playoff races and more

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September 4, 2025

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MLB September predictions: From best record to playoff races and more

Sep 2, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

Welcome to September! Five months into Major League Baseball’s 2025 season, a number of things seem to be settled — from a few divisions to some award races — but plenty of intrigue remains entering the homestretch.

Which of the current contenders will reach the playoffs? How will the closer division races play out? Which teams will secure first-round byes? And how many games will the Colorado Rockies lose?!

To discuss what the final month of the regular season might bring, we asked 16 ESPN baseball experts some of the game’s biggest questions, covering September and beyond, and to explain their answers. We also asked them to make bold predictions about what will happen over the final stretch.

Let’s get into it.

Which team will finish with the best record in baseball?

Milwaukee Brewers: 14
Detroit Tigers: 1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 1

What makes the Brewers the favorite to secure the majors’ best record? Besides the buffer the Brewers have built as we enter the final month of the regular season, there’s just nothing to suggest a falloff. They are on track to win about 100 games and their run differential supports that pace. The remaining schedule is friendly. And Milwaukee’s production has come from every position and category. It’s just a really complete team. — Bradford Doolittle

How many of the current 12 teams projected for the playoffs will be in the postseason field?

All 12: 15
11: 1

You have the Royals ousting the Mariners from the playoff field. Why do you think that will happen? The Kansas City Royals will make the playoffs. Crazy? Not so. They’ve played great in July and August. Vinnie Pasquantino is mashing home runs, Bobby Witt Jr. is red hot and the players they added at the trade deadline have chipped in to make this a good offense. The Royals also have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. But which team can they catch?

It might hinge on a three-game series at home against Seattle in mid-September. The Mariners have a recent history of falling just short of the postseason — including last year, when the Royals clinched a wild-card spot with 86 wins and the Mariners won 85 (the Mariners blew an 8-0 lead against Kansas City in June, which loomed large at the end of the season). Seattle has struggled on the road, so the aforementioned series can catapult the Royals back into the postseason. — David Schoenfield

Who will be the No. 1 seed in the AL: Toronto or Detroit?

Detroit Tigers: 14
Toronto Blue Jays: 2

The Tigers were the overwhelming choice. Why did you take them? For me, this was mostly a schedule play. The top seed, based on the standings, is likely to be the Tigers or the Blue Jays, with the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners all within plausible striking distance. Toronto doesn’t have an easy series left. Detroit’s schedule isn’t nearly as rigorous. In a race this close, with teams this close in talent and production, little things like schedule luck often determine the outcome. — Jeff Passan

You were one of two voters to pick the Blue Jays. Why do you think they top Detroit? The Tigers are a wonderful story, but not so much since the All-Star break, as they have played .500 ball, struggled to score runs and their ERA is among the bottom 10 in baseball. The Blue Jays are peaking at the right time, scoring plenty of runs, and Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber make the rotation formidable. Frankly, all three AL East contenders are better than the current Tigers, and it should show in the final standings. — Eric Karabell

Assuming the Brewers get one, who will get the second bye in the NL?

Los Angeles Dodgers: 9
Philadelphia Phillies: 5
San Diego Padres: 2

Despite dealing with star players slumping and a mountain of injuries this season, the Dodgers are still the slight favorites for the No. 2 seed in a stacked NL. Explain why. Because those are the very reasons why the Dodgers firmly believe their best baseball is still ahead of them. Their bullpen will soon be as close to whole as it has been all season. The same can be said about the lineup. The rotation already is, and the four-man group they’ll put together in October will be scary if the starters remain healthy.

That’s a big “if,” considering the pitching ailments that have plagued them the last couple years. But at the end of the day, the Dodgers possess the most depth and talent in the sport. They feel as if they’re on the verge of truly showcasing it. — Alden Gonzalez

The Phillies also received a fair number of votes. What makes them your pick? The Phillies seem to be flying under the radar for a team that has spent most of the season on a 95-win pace. Maybe it’s the Zack Wheeler injury, maybe it’s their struggles against the New York Mets — or maybe it’s just that this is about what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from Philly over the past few seasons.

But there is plenty to like here over the final month and into October as well. Even without Wheeler, the Phillies have the best Game 1 starter of any NL contender in Cristopher Sanchez. Kyle Schwarber has a real shot at Ryan Howard’s franchise home run record (58). They acquired the best reliever to move at the deadline in Jhoan Duran and filled their biggest hole by trading for outfielder Harrison Bader. Oh, and they currently hold that second spot in the NL — with a 1 1/2 game cushion over the Dodgers. — Dan Mullen

Will the Dodgers or Padres win the NL West?

Los Angeles Dodgers: 13
San Diego Padres: 3

The Dodgers were our voters’ overwhelming favorite to win the division. Why — and how — do you think San Diego can overtake L.A.? More than any other team, I think the Dodgers look at their seasons from 30,000 feet, rather than succumbing to the concerns of the moment. They demonstrate this every year with their handling of pitching injuries — they essentially rest veteran starters through long stretches of the season, rather than push them in May and June, in order to do what they can to ensure that the players will be relatively fresh in October. This is why we’ve seen such a deliberate ramp-up with Shohei Ohtani.

That’s why I think the Padres will wind up winning the division. They bolstered their bullpen with Mason Miller at the trade deadline, and since then, it feels like they’ve been playing a series of Game 7s. And, let’s face it, San Diego is all-in in trying to win right now, with its top-heavy roster and the likes of Dylan Cease and Michael King headed for free agency in the fall. The Dodgers, on the other hand, won’t go to the whip in September in the same way. No matter how their own division plays out, they’ll make the playoffs and have a shot to repeat as World Series winners, while it feels as if San Diego is going to go all-out down the stretch to win the NL West.

Different pressures, different styles, different context. — Buster Olney

Who will win the AL West?

Houston Astros: 8
Seattle Mariners: 8

Make the case for the Astros: Picking Houston to win the West isn’t going out on much of a limb: They’re currently in first place, just got slugger Yordan Alvarez back from injury and simply have more pedigree than Seattle. The Mariners have a slightly easier schedule the rest of the way but their road woes are for real — and will likely prevent them from going on an extended run. Picking against the Astros would be the headline-scratching move. They’re the division champ once again. — Jesse Rogers

Make the case for the Mariners: The Mariners aren’t playing their best baseball, but they are healthy and within striking distance of the Astros for the division entering September. Their starting rotation is elite. The bullpen and offense should be better. Meanwhile, the Astros have recently gotten Yordan Alvarez back from injury, but they’re without Josh Hader and Isaac Paredes, among others. The division could come down to the three-game series between the two rivals in late September. — Jorge Castillo

How many games will the Rockies lose?

119: 1
118: 3
117: 1
116: 3
115: 3
114: 3
113: 1
112: 1

We got quite the breadth of answers to this question, but you were one of three to say 118 losses — our second-highest loss total. Why is that your prediction? The Rockies aren’t far removed from being on a modern record-setting pace for losses, and they’ve been especially awful against the current 12 teams in the playoff field: 9-50 (.153). They play 13 of their final 24 against that group, at a time when they’re increasingly leaning on younger and less experienced players. Their September isn’t going to be pretty. — Tristan Cockcroft

Make one bold prediction about the final stretch

Tim Kurkjian: Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh will finish the season with 60 home runs.

Matt Marrone: With most of the playoff field set — other than last-minute jockeying for seeds — all eyes will be on the Mariners over the final days of the season, as Raleigh sets a new AL home run record.

Kiley McDaniel: Between hitting and pitching, Shohei Ohtani catches Raleigh in total WAR.

Passan: Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz will finish in the top five of AL MVP voting.

Karabell: The Phillies call up top pitching prospect Andrew Painter on Sept. 7 and he goes 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA.

Mullen: Nolan McLean will be the NL’s best pitcher not named Paul Skenes over the final month and take the mound in October — as the Mets’ Game 1 playoff starter.

Paul Hembekides: Boston’s Garrett Crochet will overtake Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and win the AL Cy Young Award.

Schoenfield: The Red Sox will catch the Blue Jays and win the AL East.

Gonzalez: Actually, the Yankees will win the AL East.

Cockcroft: Not only do the Yankees overtake Toronto for the division title, but they also grab a first-round bye, even if they can’t quite catch the Tigers for the No. 1 seed.

Olney: The Yankees have such a soft schedule in the final weeks that they wind up with the second-best record in the AL … but because Toronto holds on to win the division, New York is the No. 4 seed and faces Boston in the wild-card round.

Tim Keown: The Padres, with the easiest remaining schedule in baseball, will go 7-0 against the Colorado Rockies in September to win the NL West and take the second first-round bye spot.

Castillo: The Mets will overtake the Phillies and win the NL East.

Doolittle: If we started the playoffs tomorrow, the bracket would look exactly the same as it will after we’ve played out the season.

Voters: Dan Mullen, Liz Finny, Paul Hembekides, Jeff Passan, Eric Karabell, Alden Gonzalez, David Schoenfield, Tim Kurkjian, Kiley McDaniel, Tim Keown, Jorge Castillo, Matt Marrone, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Tristan Cockcroft, Buster Olney

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MLB trade deadline winners and losers — a month later

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September 4, 2025

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MLB trade deadline winners and losers -- a month later

  • Bradford DoolittleSep 3, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      • MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Been with ESPN since 2013

The last Stock Watch of the regular season is here. Before the next one, we’ll know who the 2025 World Series champion is, and will be knee-deep in another Hot Stove season.

With the Milwaukee Brewers topping the watch for the second month in a row, let’s use that surprising fact to make a couple of observations about this year’s competition:

• Payroll matters but it’s still no excuse. The likely playoff bracket looks loaded with big markets and big spenders, but teams like the Brewers and Kansas City Royals kind of take away the excuses of everyone who bemoans baseball’s economic disparity. Not that we shouldn’t seek to even the field, but in the meantime, teams should still be trying to win.

• There’s a solid chance we might see a champion we’ve never seen before. There are just five remaining teams with a goose egg in the World Series championship column. One of them is the Brewers, whose odds for ending that drought are the highest in baseball. Two others are the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners, both likely playoff teams. Taken together, these three clubs have around a 28% shot at this year’s title. In other words, there’s better than a 1-in-4 chance that some long-suffering fan base will get to have a parade in a couple of months.

With the MLB trade deadline more than a month old, let’s take a look at the most recent fortunes of all 30 teams, with an eye on how their moves (or non-moves) have worked (or not worked) so far.

Win average: 98.7 (Last: 95.9, 1st)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 99.2%)
Champions: 18.3% (Last:11.3%)

Deadline aftermath: Milwaukee was quiet at the deadline and hasn’t gotten much from its additions. Backup catcher Danny Jansen hasn’t hit since arriving, while reliever Shelby Miller has been so-so in a mid-leverage role. Yet Milwaukee has baseball’s best record and run differential since deadline day. Sometimes you don’t mess with a good thing. Should the injury to closer Trevor Megill linger, you might argue Milwaukee should have been more aggressive in pursuit of a back-end reliever. First, we ought to wait for the Brewers’ bullpen to actually struggle, because Milwaukee always has an answer when it comes to filling roster holes.

Win average: 93.8 (Last: 92.7, 5th)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 96.8%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 7.8%)

Deadline aftermath: Dave Dombrowski went with quality over quantity at the deadline and it has paid off. Harrison Bader has mashed while playing mostly every day in center field. Jhoan Duran hasn’t been perfect, but he has been everything the Phillies could have hoped for, while changing the dynamic of the bullpen, now and looking ahead to October. It took Duran a month to move into a tie for the Phillies’ saves lead, a period during which he didn’t allow a walk or a homer. The additions continue even after the stinging loss of Zack Wheeler. Conceding nothing, Dombrowski also signed Walker Buehler on Sunday after Buehler was released by the Red Sox.

Win average: 93.3 (Last: 95.8, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 99.4%)
Champions: 7.2% (Last: 13.6%)

Deadline aftermath: Chicago’s quiet deadline rankled pundits, and the reaction hasn’t softened given the struggles of the few additions the Cubs did make, and the ongoing distance between them and the Brewers in the National League Central. The Cubs might want to stop trading for infielders at the deadline. Last year, they picked up Isaac Paredes, who flailed as a Cub, then moved on and went back to his typical self this year with the Astros. This time, Willi Castro has gone from an above-average hitter with Minnesota to borderline unplayable with the Cubs, at least at the dish, as part of Chicago’s overall offensive slide.

Win average: 92.9 (Last: 95.8, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 99.4%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 15.4%)

Deadline aftermath: Los Angeles’ deadline approach was more similar to a team straddling the add/subtract fence than what the Dodgers actually are: a talent-laden, mega-rich defending champ angling for a repeat. Alex Call has helped as an extra outfielder who plays against lefties, but reliever Brock Stewart has struggled. Mostly the Dodgers have leaned on improved pitching health over the past month. Their revived hurlers have kept the Dodgers in the elite tier. Over the remainder of the season, if L.A. can match its first-half hitting with its second-half pitching, the Dodgers will hit the postseason as the behemoth we always thought they were.

Win average: 92.9 (Last: 93.3, 4th)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 99.2%)
Champions: 11.3% (Last: 11.3%)

Deadline aftermath: The Tigers went heavy on pitching at the deadline with a particular focus on positive regression candidates. It has worked for the bullpen, where Kyle Finnegan in particular has looked like a different pitcher than he was for Washington. The returns on starters Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack have been mixed. Detroit has played middling ball over the past month, largely due to an offense that has fallen off a bit and went unaddressed in the trade market. The Tigers are fine in the American League Central race, but find themselves in a tight battle for a No. 1 seed with Toronto.

Win average: 91.7 (Last: 90.7, 6th)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 92.9%)
Champions: 7.7% (Last: 5.3%)

Deadline aftermath: A leaky bullpen has kept the Blue Jays from keeping their AL East rivals at bay, and, as we enter the final month, Toronto could end up with a No. 1 seed or could be a road team in the wild-card round. The deadline impact has been mixed. Shane Bieber looks like Shane Bieber, an undeniable boost. But on a relief staff that features a closer (Jeff Hoffman) with 29 saves and a below-replacement bWAR, the additions of Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland have yet to pay off. If Toronto’s bullpen picks up the pace, this is a complete team.

Win average: 90.6 (Last: 90.2, 7th)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 89.0%)
Champions: 4.0% (Last: 4.5%)

Deadline aftermath: The Padres overtook the Dodgers a couple of times in August, only to slip back behind their nemesis. A.J. Preller’s deadline haul has accomplished its primary objective, which was to shore up roster holes and raise San Diego’s floor. The exception to that description — the addition of Mason Miller to an already strong bullpen — looks very much like a ceiling raiser. The only quibble might be in the rotation, where those the Padres dealt (Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek) have together outpitched those Preller acquired (Nestor Cortes, JP Sears). But Freddy Fermin, acquired for Bergert and Kolek, stabilized the catcher position.

Win average: 90.5 (Last: 88.8, 11th)
In the playoffs: 98.9% (Last: 87.2%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 8.0%)

Deadline aftermath: The Yankees’ trajectory changed sharply over the second half of August, a month they exited as one of baseball’s hottest teams. Behind a reinvigorated offense and a steady rotation, New York is back in contention for the AL East crown, a No. 1 seed, the whole pinstriped ball of wax. But the deadline-infused bullpen needs to pull it together consistently, or Yankees fans will enter October in an even more heightened state of anxiety than usual. If not for the solid work done so far by ex-Pirate David Bednar, New York’s work bolstering the relief group might look even worse.

Win average: 89.7 (Last: 88.9, 10th)
In the playoffs: 97.9% (Last: 87.6%)
Champions: 6.7% (Last: 5.5%)

Deadline aftermath: Boston’s pitching staff additions of Steven Matz and Dustin May didn’t exactly scream “‘all-in!” for a team that by the end of July had positioned itself for a playoff run. May and earlier in-season addition Jordan Hicks haven’t had an impact, but Matz has been lights out in a surging bullpen. Boston continues to play well, and the promotion of rotation prospect Payton Tolle is a jolt of energy for that unit. The Red Sox needed a power bat, but those were in short supply. The bottom line is that Boston hasn’t lost any ground since we last convened.

Win average: 88.1 (Last: 89.5, 9th)
In the playoffs: 85.3% (Last: 88.0%)
Champions: 3.6% (Last: 6.1%)

Deadline aftermath: Whatever you thought about Houston’s attempt to bolster its offense at the deadline with the additions of Carlos Correa, Jesus Sanchez and Ramon Urias, it hasn’t had the desired effect. Houston had a losing August (13-15) while ranking 26th in net runs per game. Only the Guardians scored fewer runs. Each member of the incoming trio has performed close to projection, so you can’t blame them, and it’s likely that without them, things would be worse. Still, the Astros enter the stretch run in a more precarious position than they’ve been in a long time.

Win average: 86.7 (Last: 90.1, 8th)
In the playoffs: 88.2% (Last: 89.4%)
Champions: 5.2% (Last: 4.5%)

Deadline aftermath: The Mets enter September with one of baseball’s hottest offenses. They also have one of MLB’s coldest pitching staffs. Thus, we’ve seen many games like New York’s 10-8 win over Detroit on Labor Day. The Mets got five quality starts in August. That isn’t great, but if the bullpen is rolling … well, it’s not. The relievers went 2-for-7 in save opportunities. Deadline pickups Gregory Soto and Tyler Rogers have been fine, but the splash was supposed to come from Ryan Helsley, whose August ERA (9.31) was more like a belly flop. There’s a month to get this right before the playoffs.

Win average: 86.5 (Last: 86.8, 12th)
In the playoffs: 74.1% (Last: 70.4%)
Champions: 2.6% (Last: 3.4%)

Deadline aftermath: The process — acquiring Arizona’s corner infield of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez — was deservedly lauded. The early results are mixed. At first base, Seattle’s OPS before Naylor’s Mariners debut was 0.708, mostly Rowdy Tellez and Donovan Solano. Since then, it’s 0.761. Good! At third base, the OPS was 0.664 before Suarez. It’s 0.659 since. Meh! Seattle has treaded water since the deadline splash, ranking 18th in runs, despite a huge month from Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh‘s homer-fest. The Mariners need their big guns to get hot at the same time, because nothing, not even a playoff slot, is assured.

Win average: 83.6 (Last: 84.1, 13th)
In the playoffs: 28.7% (Last: 43.2%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 2.1%)

Deadline aftermath: Despite lackluster offense, Texas targeted pitching before the deadline, coming away with relievers Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton. The big prize was starter Merrill Kelly, who seemed like a luxury addition until the injury to Nathan Eovaldi. The Rangers have leaned on Kelly and he has responded. That hasn’t been the case for the relievers, and for most of August, the Texas bullpen prevented the club from really catching fire. Texas heated up lately, but now faces most if not all of September without Eovaldi, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Manager Bruce Bochy will need to be in Hall of Fame form.

Win average: 82.5 (Last: 80.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 11.3% (Last: 12.5%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.1%)

Deadline aftermath: The Royals continue to undermine excuses from less aggressive clubs in baseball’s lower economic tiers. The threshold isn’t that high. Just try. Kansas City’s offense for most of the season was a hodgepodge of negative regression performers down from 2024, and glaring, gaping holes. The Royals, seven games under .500 near the end of June, added anyway, raising their floor with the likes of Adam Frazier, Randal Grichuk and Mike Yastrzemski. They also bolstered an injury-plagued rotation with Bergert and Kolek. End result: The Royals have plenty to play for during the stretch run. A playoff return remains in play.

Win average: 81.6 (Last: 82.3, 14th)
In the playoffs: 6.8% (Last: 12.3%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.4%)

Deadline aftermath: The Reds’ acquisition of starter Zack Littell struck me as odd and, frankly, it still does. He has been pretty good. But Cincinnati has plenty of “pretty good” when it comes to the rotation. The Reds have candidates for much better than that behind the pretty good. Anyway, the pickups for the lineup have been chef’s kiss good. Miguel Andujar has hit like peak-level Miguel Cabrera. Ke’Bryan Hayes has flashed his elite defense and paired it with a level of offense that adds up to a really good player. If the Reds don’t make the playoffs, it won’t be because of deadline deficiencies.

Win average: 81.6 (Last: 81.8, 15th)
In the playoffs: 4.8% (Last: 9.4%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.2%)

Deadline aftermath: The Giants went into soft unload mode around the deadline. They weren’t playing well, and while their probabilities made the playoffs possible, the trajectory wasn’t good. A month later, the Giants’ position hasn’t changed — they’re still a fringe playoff candidate — but some of their pickups have already contributed. Jose Butto has been very good out of the bullpen, and Drew Gilbert, while swinging at everything, has flashed some pop and is getting acclimated to the majors. The Giants are offering a glimpse of what they’ll be next season, and have given their fans reasons to watch the stretch run with interest.

Win average: 80.8 (Last: 80.3, 17th)
In the playoffs: 3.6% (Last: 10.2%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)

Deadline aftermath: Once again, the Rays’ deadline was about setting themselves up for the next season while not totally raising the white flag on the current one. As you can see from the unchanged win projection, things have chugged along on the same track, though staying the course has come with dwindling playoff odds. The new catchers — Hunter Feduccia and Nick Fortes — have together hit less than a pre-universal-DH pitcher. But the various departures have created openings for Feduccia, Carson Williams and Everson Pereira, and that’s the general idea. A miracle wild-card berth is not, as yet, totally out of the question.

Win average: 79.4 (Last: 79.3, 19th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 6.5%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)

Deadline aftermath: Having Bieber around for Cleveland’s long shot postseason bid would be nice, but the judgment on the deal with Toronto is years off and pending the development of prospect Khal Stephen. Besides, Cleveland’s problem isn’t pitching. Despite finishing .500 in August, the Guardians enjoyed a clean sweep in the major hitting categories, finishing last in runs, average, OBP and slugging. Between the putrid attack and the losses of pitchers Luis L. Ortiz and Emmanuel Clase to indefinite leave, it’s amazing that Cleveland’s hopes remain slightly alive. That’s the beauty of this year’s AL. It’s hard to play yourself out of contention.

Win average: 78.9 (Last: 77.3, 21st)
In the playoffs: 0.5% (Last: 0.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: You can argue whether the Twins or the Diamondbacks traded more right-now value at the deadline but it’s one of the two. For Arizona, the losses of Kelly, Naylor, Suarez, Miller and Grichuk have … helped? It’s hard to claim that Arizona has played better because of those departures, but the Snakes have played better. The Diamondbacks went 17-12 in August and were in the top 10 in both run scoring and run prevention. Suarez replacement Blaze Alexander has taken off on offense, while on the pitching side, the bullpen has gotten hot thanks to the work of off-the-radar types.

Win average: 78.1 (Last: 79.4, 18th)
In the playoffs: 0.4% (Last: 2.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)

Deadline aftermath: The Cardinals followed a standard route last month, dealing free agents-to-be and forgoing short-term additions. The approach adheres to St. Louis’ plan to treat the 2025 season as a minor nuisance, no matter if the team on the field clings to fringe contention. The losses of those dealt, even closer Helsley, given how he has performed in New York, haven’t had any effect on the short-term performance. The Cardinals continue to plug along in the middle as they were, waiting for next season. In some ways, it might have been easier for their fans if the Cardinals had just politely bottomed out.

Win average: 75.8 (Last: 78.1, 20th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: The Marlins played it casual at the deadline rather than kicking the can down the road by dealing Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, for now anyway. So the rest of the season is about getting better and creating opportunity for young players like outfielder Jakob Marsee, who put up a huge August in the relative vacuum of a standard Marlins season. Unfortunately, one of the aspirants won’t be deadline pickup Ryan Gusto, who was torched over three Marlins starts before going down with a shoulder impingement. Hopefully in September we’ll see more prospects like Victor Mesa Jr. and Andrew Pintar.

Win average: 75.4 (Last: 76.0, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: The Angels’ soft add around the deadline has actually worked, to a degree, in that bullpen additions Andrew Chafin and Luis Garcia have been airtight. Thus a bottom-five bullpen has been middle of the pack since the end of July. But a 6.35 rotation ERA and an 0.665 OPS by the offense in August have rendered that development moot. The early returns on ex-Yankee Oswald Peraza haven’t been good, as not only has he struggled to keep his OPS over 0.500, but he gave up eight runs on the mound during a mop-up appearance. The Angels’ season appears headed nowhere.

Win average: 74.2 (Last: 69.5, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: The A’s went 3-24 between May 6 and June 4, a month that sunk what looked like a possible wild-card candidacy. You don’t get to erase bad months from the record, but it’s worth considering that outside of that plunge, the Athletics are 10 games over .500. The splash at the deadline — trading Miller and getting elite prospect Leo De Vries in return — was a long-term play. Despite the short-term hit, the A’s had the fifth-best net runs per game figure in the majors during August and their relievers posted the best ERA in baseball. The Athletics are getting good.

Win average: 74.1 (Last: 72.4, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: The Braves had a winning month after the deadline, but it did little to mitigate a titanically disappointing season in Cobb County. The injuries have continued, as have some pretty crucial underperformances, like that of starter Spencer Strider. Michael Harris II has been hot as a firecracker since the break, which has been encouraging, but this season has mostly been one of Atlanta becoming a frequent stop on the DFA merry-go-round. The only note you might offer about the deadline is that pending free agents Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna should have been moved. It’s been a rough season.

Win average: 73.8 (Last: 76.1, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.3%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: Unsurprisingly, the Twins have floundered since their aggressive offloading approach to the deadline. With this season lost, Minnesota’s short-term focus is on the young players it picked up during the flurry of activity. The initial results for James Outman, Alan Roden, Mick Abel and Taj Bradley have been subpar across the board, but it’s early days and that list just represents those who have reached the majors. In any event, when you look at the exploits of ex-Twins like Harrison Bader, Jhoan Duran and Carlos Correa on their new teams, you can’t say Minnesota hasn’t impacted the pennant races.

Win average: 72.3 (Last: 72.3, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: The Orioles turned the page on a disappointing season at the deadline and added depth to their system in the process. The on-field results haven’t improved since the reshuffling, though the rotation had a nice run of outings. It’s all about next season. The Orioles’ August was a mixed bag in that regard. On the downside, Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser struggled last month. Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers reached the majors, with Beavers in particular getting off to a good start. The Orioles won’t return to the postseason, but they can enter the offseason with positive momentum.

Win average: 71.6 (Last: 69.9, 26th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: With the Pirates’ focus, as ever, on the distant horizon, the remainder of Pittsburgh’s post-deadline roster has stayed competitive. The rotation remains the unit to watch, and August was not without interest for that group. Paul Skenes continues to build a Cy Young case, but for once, he’s not the biggest reason for excitement. That would be Bubba Chandler, technically a reliever for now, who has looked terrific over a pair of bulk outings. After eight scoreless frames to start his career, Chandler has a lifetime ERA even better than Skenes’. Hey, in Pittsburgh you get your kicks where you can.

Win average: 64.5 (Last: 64.5, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: The Nationals’ never-ending rebuild feels stalled, perhaps even more so after another deadline of dealing veteran talent. Whether or not Washington got fair return in its deals is almost beside the point. When will it end? If the young foundational players were picking up momentum, it might feel different. But CJ Abrams, James Wood, Dylan Crews and Brady House are among those who have lagged since the All-Star break. If ever there was a franchise in need of a spark, it’s this one right now. The offense has been brutal, but the pitching, especially the rotation, has been even worse. Sigh.

Win average: 59.6 (Last: 62.1, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: The White Sox were playing pretty well at the time of the deadline, but the month since has not been kind. Still, the record is neither here nor there, it’s more about individual performances right now. And through that prism, there is plenty to like about Chicago’s direction. Kyle Teel has been a well-rounded force at the plate. Colson Montgomery has displayed explosive power. There’s more, but you get the idea. The downer is the possible season-ending injury to Luis Robert Jr., whose combined slash over the past two seasons is .223/.288/.372. Maybe this is just what he is now.

Win average: 45.9 (Last: 44.3, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: Colorado continues to lose games at a prodigious pace, but it’s a less frantic pace than earlier this season. Progress? Maybe not. During August, the Colorado rotation posted an ERA of 6.54 and allowed a .309/.381/.514 slash line. Before you start adjusting the rotation numbers for Coors Field, don’t bother. Those were the road numbers. The overall numbers can’t be published without a parental warning. One quest remains: Hunter Goodman‘s 2.7 bWAR places him third in Colorado history among primary catchers. The record is Chris Iannetta’s 3.2 in 2008. Setting any kind of positive record amid this mess would be something.

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MLB playoff tracker: Who can clinch postseason spot next, current bracket and more

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September 4, 2025

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MLB playoff tracker: Who can clinch postseason spot next, current bracket and more

Sep 3, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

A number of teams are starting to shift their focus to October as the final month of the 2025 MLB regular season begins.

The Detroit Tigers are pretty much a postseason lock with a whopping lead in the the AL Central, and the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers are comfortably sitting atop their respective divisions.

Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the first team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?

We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.

Key links: Full MLB standings | Wild-card standings

Who can clinch a playoff spot next?

The Tigers, Phillies, Brewers, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres all have at least a 99% chance of making the postseason entering the final month of the MLB season.

What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?

American League

Wild-card round: (6) Mariners at (3) Astros, (5) Red Sox at (4) Yankees

ALDS: Mariners/Astros vs. (2) Tigers, Red Sox/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays

National League

Wild-card round: (6) Mets at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs

NLDS: Mets/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers

Breaking down the AL race

The Blue Jays and Tigers enter the homestretch battling for the AL’s No. 1 seed, with Detroit all but a lock for the AL Central crown. While Toronto sits atop the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are duking it out for wild-card seeding. And, in what seems to be a yearly September occurrence, the Houston Astros are attempting to separate themselves from the Seattle Mariners in a two-team AL West race.

And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:

Breaking down the NL race

Five teams have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets trying to keep a comfortable lead over the Cincinnati Reds for the final playoff spot. The Phillies and Brewers are seemingly cruising to division titles, but there is plenty of intrigue in the NL West as the Dodgers attempt to fend off the Padres for the division crown.

And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:

Game of the day

Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:

Playoff schedule

Wild-card series
Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium

Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*

Division series
Best of five

ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*

NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*

League championship series
Best of seven

ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*

NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*

World Series
Best of seven

Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29*
Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*

* If necessary

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