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  • Kyle Bonagura, ESPN Staff WriterOct 3, 2024, 09:15 AM ET

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    • Covers college football.
    • Joined ESPN in 2014.
    • Attended Washington State University.

BERKELEY, Calif. — Miles Goodman, a first-year grad student at UC Berkeley, had no idea the chain of events he was about to set off when he opened his photo-editing app late in Cal‘s 21-14 win at Auburn on Sept. 7.

For months, Goodman had interacted with opposing fan bases under the handle @golDonbear on X, and it was normal for him to run into barbs about Cal as a bastion of progressive values. The stereotyping was often meant to be insulting, but it usually just left Goodman amused.

Still, those comments were top of mind as Cal put the finishing touches on a win in which it physically dominated the Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

“I was like, ‘OK, well this thing that you are pushing both Cal as a team and as an institution, why not take it on from a satirical lens?'” Goodman said.

He cobbled together a few poignant photos, slapped on a rainbow and completed his meme with the phrase, “You just lost to the woke agenda.”

When the official Auburn football account posted a final score graphic on X, Goodman reposted it with his work of art. The post went viral, and in the weeks since has been viewed more than 5 million times.

The common sentiment among college football fans: Cal Twitter, I was not familiar with your game.

Goodman’s post was an inflection point in what has led to the Calgorithm, the overarching term that has come to define Cal’s irreverent community of fans whose self-deprecating brand of internetting has generated fresh enthusiasm about the football program as it begins a new life in the ACC.

Armed with basic photo- and video-editing skills, generative AI art tools and the desire to change the perception that people in Berkeley don’t care about football, the Calgorithm is powered by a mix of longtime fans who use their real names and a larger group of mostly anonymous posters, known as “the burners.” Their dedication played a contributing factor in the decision from ESPN’s “College GameDay” to visit Cal this week for the first time.

“It’s not that we changed that much,” a burner known as Admiral Bear told ESPN. “It’s that the national consciousness figured out that we exist and that we’re interesting.”

AUGUST 2023 WAS a particularly stressful month for Cal fans as the Pac-12 collapsed, leaving the Bears and rival Stanford with an uncertain future.

“There was a real fear that Cal football could die,” said Nick Kranz, a lifelong Cal fan and a contributor to the website Write for California. “Either a literal death, like the school decides, ‘This is not worth it and we’re going to stop playing football.’ Or a more figurative death. ‘We’re going to keep doing it in the Mountain West, but we’re going to get no revenue out of it and we’re never going to achieve anything.'”

Anxiety built over several weeks as the Bay Area schools languished in the Pac-12, their conference home for over 100 years, before the ACC formally admitted the pair on the eve of the first weekend of the college football season.

It was a strange development to process. From the press box at Cal’s Memorial Stadium, there is a view of the San Francisco Bay, and on a clear day it’s possible to see beyond the Golden Gate Bridge out to the Pacific Ocean. Yet, the stadium would now host games in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

“Cal in the ACC is very strange,” said Avinash Kunnath, another prominent member of Cal’s online community who has written about the Bears for years. “There’s no two ways around it. And it’s not going to be something that’s going to be easy for a lot of older [fans] or people who have been in the Pac-12 for 50 years. But I think the one thing our community has done is — we live in the weird.”

Most importantly, the move secured a place in a power conference, but it also led to this opportunity for fans to engage in circles of the internet they wouldn’t have meandered to before. In the Pac-12, everything was familiar and there was monotony that came with that. In the ACC, Cal arrived with an element of intrigue for opposing fans, many of whom were unfamiliar with the school beyond its left-wing reputation.

For Cal fans, that dynamic turned into an opportunity.

“We embraced our identity, we started to get more comfortable with the woke stuff and all the things that come with the political side of things, but we didn’t make it super serious,” Kunnath said. “We just kept it kind of lighthearted. We poke fun at ourselves a lot, and we didn’t run from our identity.”

Added Kranz: “Cal gets the ACC lifeline and a bunch of people online who just love Cal football have decided, ‘We are going to save Cal football through the sheer force of our vibes.'”

Considering how diametrically opposed Berkeley and Auburn, Alabama, are on the political spectrum, it was only natural for that to fuel the online banter leading up to and through the game. But as Cal fans playfully leaned into their own stereotypes, there was an disarming effect that welcomed anyone — including Auburn fans — to get in on the joke.

Their tone wasn’t universally adored, but it was clear they tapped into something fun and different. Goodman’s post was far from the only one that played with that theme, but its timing and execution made the most of the moment.

“That particular joke really hit on a nerve where it’s like, ‘OK, we’re going to reappropriate the fact that you are looking down on us as lesser college football fans and you just lost to those lesser college football fans,” Kranz said. “If you’re going to make us a joke, then we’re going to run with that joke and we’re going to be the woke mob that can win football games and also go to goofy protests and hug the trees and whatever other silly stereotype that you like to make about Berkeley.”

In the wake of the Auburn game, the community grew.

“I actually made my account that I use now — @wokemobfootball — right after the Auburn game and just went deep into it,” a new burner, known as Callie, told ESPN. “I just happened to get lucky, saw a post, and the algorithm decided I needed more of it. And then I realized, ‘Oh, this is something I really like. I’m going to go all the way in.'”

Callie grew up going to Cal games with her father and in the past had occasionally waded into Cal Twitter from her main account — the one she uses her real name with — but she could sense there was a movement afoot. The more absurd the joke, the better.

As more people got involved, the more coordinated everything became. A group chat within X includes more than 100 burners who share ideas and provide feedback for one another.

Momentum continued to build as Cal beat San Diego State 21-0, but it was the following week when things reached a new level, as the Bears prepared for their ACC debut against Florida State in Tallahassee.

A visit to Florida’s state capital offered another opportunity to poke fun at the contrast in political viewpoints, and the Calgorithm took advantage. Name the stereotype, the burners embraced it.

Callie started an official tongue-in-cheek Change.org petition that called for FSU to change its mascot from the Seminoles to the Manatees.

“The Manatee–a graceful and majestic creature–aligns much better with Florida State’s football team and fandom,” the petition reads.

There was an onslaught of generative AI images. Those without editing skills realized the barrier for entry to fire off their own contributions wasn’t very steep. All they needed was a couple of minutes and a finely tuned prompt and any number of online tools could spit back an image to match their vision.

For the team, the trip to Tallahassee ended poorly. Cal outgained FSU 410-284, but its offense was a disaster in the red zone, and the Bears failed to score a touchdown in a 14-9 loss. This could have been the moment for Cal fans to abandon ship and let the Calgorithm fade back into obscurity.

Instead, the opposite happened.

The Calgorithm doubled down headed into the bye week with the hope of luring “GameDay” to campus with top-10 Miami headed to Berkeley on Oct. 5.

FOR WEEKS, CAL’S fans had joked that the song “Hot to Go!” by Chappell Roan could be reworked as “Ott to Go,” a nod to the Bears’ star running back Jaydn Ott. But as the Calgorithm became more ambitious, the joke became a real endeavor.

“A friend of mine was like, ‘I’m going to commission a singer and we’re going to make ‘Ott to Go’ happen,” Admiral Bear said. “And I’m just like, ‘That’s a big move. But if you’re going to put up the money for it, that’s cool.'”

But when Admiral Bear looked at the lyrics, he wasn’t feeling them and decided to take his own stab.

“I punched out some lyrics and sent it to him, and he is like, ‘That’s a thousand percent better. We’re absolutely going with that,'” Admiral Bear said. “We workshopped the lyrics a little bit, refined things here and there. He got demos from three different singers, and we picked the one we liked the best and sent her the lyrics. And a couple days later, she sent us the file.”

The commission cost a little more than $300 and the Swedish singer, Micky Hage, had been previously unaware that Cal football even existed. After she finished recording, she learned more about the Bears, including the fact that their mascot and her boyfriend go by the same name: Oski.

Callie had volunteered to make an accompanying music video and on Friday worked on it past 3 a.m. The completed version was well received when it posted Saturday, reflecting another step forward by the Calgorithm.

At work Monday, a co-worker went by Callie’s desk specifically to show her the “Ott to Go” video.

“He’s a Cal alum and he showed it to me, and I kept quiet,” she said. “He was like, ‘This is so funny. Did you know about Cal Twitter?’ I was like, ‘Oh, yeah, I’ve heard of that.’

“I did send it to my dad and said, ‘Hey, I made this,’ but definitely not to my co-workers. I don’t need them knowing about my burner account.”

ON THE SAME day the “Ott to Go” video posted, “GameDay” announced it was headed to Berkeley. Segments of the Calgorithm had been lobbying for the show since the FSU loss and there was some cautious optimism after Miami stayed undefeated Friday night through a controversial ending against Virginia Tech.

“I was at Target in Emeryville when I found out,” Goodman said. “I did a backflip in the parking lot. Literally a backflip. The last time I ever hit a backflip was like eight years ago when I was doing gymnastics.”

Without the enthusiasm from the Calgorithm, it’s hard to gauge how appealing Berkeley would have been for the show. What’s clear is there is a correlation between what’s happening online and real-world benefits.

After “GameDay” announced it was coming, the California Legends Collective announced an inspired anonymous donor was willing to match up to $1 million in donations ahead of the Miami game, and in the first 36 hours the collective received more than $300,000 in pledges.

“Having a bunch of super-smart, super-engaged, super-creative people lending their voices to this and kind of raising awareness of Cal football has been a godsend,” said Kevin Kennedy, the collective’s executive director. “We don’t have this million-dollar match without ‘GameDay.’ So if we’re kind of saying that the Calgorithm brought us ‘GameDay,’ then the Calgorithm brought us a million dollars and counting.”

“We’re going to hit the million-dollar match. I think the only question is how much we’re going to go over the million-dollar match. So we’ll have at least $2 million more in NIL than we would’ve without this happening. So it’s been terrific.”

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Kiley McDaniel’s favorite Day 1 draft picks, biggest surprises and best available Day 2 prospects

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July 14, 2025

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Kiley McDaniel's favorite Day 1 draft picks, biggest surprises and best available Day 2 prospects

  • Kiley McDanielJul 14, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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    • ESPN MLB Insider
    • Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency.
    • Has worked for three MLB teams.
      • Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’

With Day 1 of the 2025 MLB draft complete, it’s time to look at which picks in the first round stood out most.

After weeks of speculation about the various directions the Washington Nationals could go with the No. 1 pick, they surprised the industry by taking Oklahoma high school shortstop Eli Willits — and the Los Angeles Angels followed up with a surprising pick of their own at No. 2 by taking UC Santa Barbara pitcher Tyler Bremner

Though the nature of the baseball draft means that some of the picks we aren’t quite sure about on Day 1 will become clearer when we see how teams spread their bonus allotment around later in the draft, here are the early picks I liked the most and some eye-opening selections along with the top players still available entering Day 2.

Five favorite moves

Mariners and Pirates get their guys

The buzz leading up to the draft was that Kade Anderson was atop the Mariners’ draft board and Seth Hernandez was the top target (after Willits, who wasn’t going to get there) of the Pirates. Seattle was the other team taking a long look at Hernandez, but the shenanigans at the top two picks (more on that later) means that both Seattle and Pittsburgh got their preferred arms.

A’s select Arnold and Taylor

The Athletics had only two picks on Day 1 but received excellent values at each. Jamie Arnold was the top prospect in the draft entering the season and seemed primed to go somewhere between No. 2 and No. 8 after an uneven season. He somehow was the prospect left holding the short straw, falling to the 11th pick. Devin Taylor was in the mix at multiple picks in the comp round but lasted five selections into the second round.

Twins embrace risk with Quick and Young

The Twins took two hit-first college infielders as their first picks last year (Kaelen Culpepper and Kyle DeBarge), took another one in the 2023 second round (Luke Keaschall), and two more in the top two rounds in 2022 (Brooks Lee, Tanner Schobel) — and also took one with their first pick this year in Marek Houston.

What interested me though is what Minnesota did after that, taking big swings with the upside of Riley Quick (four potential plus pitches but below-average command) and Quentin Young (80-grade power potential with big questions on contact rate).

Phillies try to jump the reliever trade market?

Gage Wood has a chance to start long term but can also go straight to the upper minors — if not the big leagues — and potentially help the bullpen later this season, like a trade deadline addition. The Phillies’ next pick, Cade Obermueller, is another possible starter who also could move quickly as a lefty turning 22 later this month with two knockout pitches in his fastball/slider combo. Odds are good that at least one of them can provide big league value in the next 12 months if Philly wants to utilize them that way.

The Red Sox land Witherspoon, Phillips and Eyanson

The Red Sox are interested in creating more pitching depth and selected a number of interesting arms on Day 1. Kyson Witherspoon had a lot of interest in the top 10, but the Red Sox got him at No. 15.

He’ll need to sharpen his execution a notch and his short arm action is unique, but there’s midrotation upside. Marcus Phillips has a chance to start but could also bring another distinctive look as a late-inning arm with four plus pitches from a low slot and a triple-digit fastball. Anthony Eyanson is a different sort, with fringy fastball velocity but standout command along with a slider and splitter that keep hitters off-balance.

Five eye-openers

Eli Willits at No. 1

The buzz ahead of the draft was that there were three players in play for the top pick and Willits was my third-ranked player in the class, so the same group is what I would’ve been considering — and I love Willits as a player. The bonus will be a factor in evaluating how successful this pick will be viewed — I’ll guess it starts with an eight — but I think this will be seen as a solid decision, as long as Kade Anderson or Ethan Holliday don’t become stars.

Tyler Bremner at No. 2

The biggest piece of late buzz I was hearing is that Bremner was in play at No. 3 to the Mariners. I didn’t hear his name at all at No. 2 so that made this pick the first shocker in the draft.

Bremner was considered in this area (on a deal) because he could easily be the best pitcher in this class — but only if he can develop a better slider, which isn’t a small if. The Angels seem to have a thought about how to solve this, and how he progresses will be one of the more followed storylines of this draft.

Tigers take Yost and Oliveto

I like both players, but it’s fascinating that these two and the most-rumored prep hitter tied to Detroit that they didn’t take (Coy James, who had a tough summer) were all missing strong 2024 summer performances.

Jordan Yost and Michael Oliveto were the only two prep position players in the first-round mix who weren’t in the major national events on the summer circuit, thus creating a lot of uncertainty about how to project them.

The Tigers are right to assume this could create a potential quick gain in value if Yost and Oliveto can perform early in their pro careers, but I don’t remember seeing a team double down on lack of summer exposure in the early rounds.

Orioles take two catchers in the first round, and two pitchers in the second

It’s certainly a bit odd that the Orioles took two college catchers with their first two picks after taking another one (Ethan Anderson) in the second round last year. Obviously, teams don’t draft for big league need — the O’s already have Adley Rutschman — and they need at least two catchers at all four full season minor league affiliates, it’s just odd to see them invest in this position early multiple times. And after all of the position players they have drafted under Mike Elias, they did sneak in two arms on Day 1 with Joseph Dzierwa (a command-forward lefty) and J.T. Quinn (one of my favorite college relievers with the traits to start in pro ball).

Guardians lean into power

The Guardians often draft, or sign internationally, hit-first players who are often underpowered, with Steven Kwan a prominent example. They swerved a lot this year, taking Jace LaViolette with their first pick (I compare him to Cody Bellinger or Joey Gallo; he hit .258 this season) and Nolan Schubart (24% strikeout rate, 22% in-zone whiff rate) with their fifth pick on Day 1. Those two have big power and strong pull/lift rates, and LaViolette has the athleticism to play center field, so there’s real talent, it’s just not usually the type that the Guardians have targeted.

Best available for Day 2

Listed by top 250 draft rankings

43. Mason Neville, OF, Oregon
44. Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (Ind.)
53. Josiah Hartshorn, LF, Orange Lutheran HS (Calif.)
55. Brock Sell, CF, Tokay HS (Calif.)
61. Jack Bauer, LHP, Lincoln Way East HS (Ill.)
69. Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (N.C.)
70. Alec Blair, CF, De La Salle HS (Calif.)
71. Mason Pike, RHP, Puyallup HS (Wash.)
72. Cam Appenzeller, LHP, Glenwood HS (Ill.)
73. Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (N.C.)

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Shocks at No. 1 — and No. 2?! Winners, losers and takeaways from MLB draft Day 1

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July 14, 2025

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Shocks at No. 1 -- and No. 2?! Winners, losers and takeaways from MLB draft Day 1

  • Multiple Contributors

Jul 13, 2025, 11:00 PM ET

The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.

The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.

We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.

A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?

Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.

Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.

Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.

What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?

Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.

Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.

Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.

Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?

Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.

Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.

Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.

What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?

Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.

Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.

Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.

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2025 MLB Home Run Derby: The field is set! Who is the slugger to beat?

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July 14, 2025

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2025 MLB Home Run Derby: The field is set! Who is the slugger to beat?

Jul 11, 2025, 08:19 PM ET

The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.

Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.

On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.

With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.

Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more

2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet

Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.

Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.

2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet

Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.

Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.

2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet

Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.

Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.

2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet

Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.

Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.

2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet

Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.

Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.

2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet

Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.

Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.

2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet

Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.

Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.

2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet

Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.

Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.

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