A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023.
Fatemeh Bahrami | Anadolu | Getty Images
Oil prices have jumped more than $5 a barrel since the start of the week amid intensifying fears that Israel could launch an attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
The rally, which puts crude futures on track for gains of around 8% week-to-date, has surprised many market observers in that it appears to be somewhat subdued given what’s at stake.
Energy analysts have questioned whether oil markets are being too complacent about the risk of a widening conflict in the Middle East, particularly given that the fallout could disrupt oil flows from the key exporting region. Iran, which is a member of OPEC, is a major player in the global oil market. It’s estimated that as much as 4% of global supply could be at risk if Israel targets Iran’s oil facilities.
For some analysts, the reason crude prices have yet to move even higher is because the oil market is short. This refers to a trading strategy in which an investor hopes to profit if the market value of an asset declines.
“There is a very large short position, not only in oil, you [also] see it in equities. In general, the investors don’t like this space. Why? They are concerned about a big oil supply glut next year,” Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
“When we look at the situation today, it is starkly different. Inventories are low, curve is backwardated, demand is middling, it’s not great but now you have [China’s] stimulus package on top of that, and you still have the OPEC production cuts,” Currie said.
“On top of that, we’ve thrown in potential conflict in the Middle East that could take out some energy facilities, so the near-term outlook is positive, which is why the front of the curve is strong, but it is being weighed down on the back end over the fears of this big oil supply glut,” he added.
The market is backwardated, or in backwardation, when the futures price of oil is below the spot price. The opposite structure is known as contango.
‘The market is so short’
Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, echoed Currie’s view.
“The market is so short. We’ve never seen these levels of record shorts before,” Sen told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.
Many oil traders appear to have taken a bearish position on the belief that China’s stimulus rally will fail to restore confidence in the world’s second-largest economy, Sen said, adding that market participants also tend to expect OPEC and non-OPEC allies to boost oil production later in the year.
“The market has just gotten itself into this fit of around bearishness but that’s why if it goes, we could be above $80 very quickly,” Sen said.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded 0.8% higher at $78.26 a barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $74.34, up 0.8% for the session.
Fundamentals ‘anything but encouraging’
Oil’s biggest move this week came on Thursday, when prices popped more than 5% following comments from U.S. President Joe Biden over a possible retaliatory move from Israel following Iran’s ballistic missile attack earlier in the week.
Asked by reporters whether the U.S. would support an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities, Biden said: “We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little – anyway.” The president added that “there’s nothing going to happen today.”
CNBC has reached out to the White House for further comment.
Tamas Varga, an analyst at oil broker PVM, told CNBC via email on Thursday that the oil market was pricing in some risk premium given the geopolitical concerns.
“This is why oil is stable-to-higher, equities are weakening, and the dollar is strong. These fears, however, will be greatly alleviated in [the] coming days unless oil supply from the region or traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are materially impacted,” he added.
Situated between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but strategically important waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.
“Under this scenario underlying fundamentals will become the driving force again and these fundamentals are anything but encouraging,” Varga said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday pledged to respond with force to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, insisting Tehran would “pay” for what he described as a “big mistake.” His comments came shortly after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Speaking during a visit to Qatar on Thursday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was “not in pursuit of war with Israel.” He warned, however, of a forceful response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions.
An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) speed boat is sailing along the Persian Gulf during the IRGC marine parade to commemorate Persian Gulf National Day, near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the seaport city of Bushehr, Bushehr province, in the south of Iran, on April 29, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said that oil prices were surprisingly steady given the high stakes.
“I think it is definitely a little bit about short covering, but [the price rally] is surprisingly weak … given the scenarios that might play out in the Middle East,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday.
Schieldrop said Brent crude prices had largely traded between $80 to $85 for around 18 months or so, before dipping below $70 in September. He described the oil contract’s recent move higher as “very meager,” especially given the “potentially devastating scenarios in the Middle East.”
— CNBC’s Spencer Kimball contributed to this report.
Seventeen state attorneys general and DC are fighting a Trump executive order that froze permits and funding for all onshore and offshore wind projects on January 20.
The coalition is asking a federal judge to declare the executive order illegal and prevent the Trump administration from obstructing wind energy development. It was filed in federal court in Massachusetts.
New York attorney general Letitia James is leading the coalition. James said, “This arbitrary and unnecessary directive threatens the loss of thousands of good-paying jobs and billions in investments, and it is delaying our transition away from the fossil fuels that harm our health and our planet.”
Federal agencies have stopped issuing permits for wind projects across the board and even pulled the plug on the fully approved Empire Wind in New York, which was already under construction. Developer Equinor, majority owned by the Norwegian government, went through a seven-year permitting process and is considering separate legal actions.
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Massachusetts attorney general Andrea Joy Campbell said that Trump’s “attempts to stop homegrown wind energy development directly contradict his claims that there is a growing need for reliable domestic energy.”
The coalition argues that the action violates the Administrative Procedure Act and other federal laws because the Trump administration, “among other things, provides no reasoned explanation for categorically and indefinitely halting all wind energy development.”
Trump’s executive order puts billions of dollars in state investments at risk, jeopardizing everything from wind industry infrastructure to supply chains and workforce training that’s already well underway.
The coalition consists of attorneys general of Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Washington.
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Professional salespeople love to talk about “the steps of the sale,” a tried-and-true process that guides every customer from curiosity to closed. But when it comes to electric cars, that old-school hustle can fall flat, leaving dealers struggling with how to fit them into their familiar playbook. But what if I told you, dear dealer, that there’s a whole category of vehicles on existing dealer lots that need to be approached in exactly the same way as an EV to score a successful sale that you’re already familiar with?
That category: Heavy-duty tow trucks. Here’s how selling one is a lot like selling the other.
That’s right, greenpeas – selling a tow-rated pickup truck to someone who’s buying it primarily to haul a trailer, boat, or RV is a delicate thing that requires salespeople (and sales managers) to approach their customers with a lot more patience and empathy, and a lot less, “what can I do to get you to drive this home, today?” And, as we go through the whys and hows, I think you’ll agree that all the heavy truck selling wisdom we’re going to cover today will help you sell more electric cars, more often, and for more money.
1. Discovery is where the deal gets done
When it comes to heavy-duty tow vehicles, most smart dealers understand that their customer probably has a better understanding of their individual needs than they do – but it’s still a good idea to go over that understanding during the discovery phase of the sale.
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Has the customer factored in the weight of the trailer and the weight of everyone and everything else inside it? What about the weight of water, tools, or animals? Do they fully understand the concepts of GVWR and GCWR, and the difference between trailer weight and tongue weight? Will they have enough range, when fully loaded, on their standard fuel tank or will they need an aux. tank? What about the future – are they thinking about upgrading their RV or hauling bigger loads longer distances?
In other words, the customer has to trust that the vehicle they’re about to buy from you will meet their needs and fit into their lives today, while also meeting their needs in the foreseeable future. That’s what it looks like in a truck, but now apply that to an EV.
Has the customer mapped out the routes they take every day to make sure they can make the drive? That might sound ridiculous to you and me, but what if they’re depending on a single DC fast charger out on a rural stretch of highway to get the EV to meet their needs? What if they think 200 miles of range is 200 miles of range, but they like to drive 80+ mph (on Chicago’s I-290, that’s a minimum safe travel speed), do they understand that speed impacts range as much as weather?
Tools like Chargeway are great for helping dealers explain EV charging speeds, the impacts of speed and topography on range, and – especially in this era of NACS adapters – where buyers of used or off-lease EVs can charge up and get back on the road.
In either case, the salespeople who take the time in discovery to understand their customers’ needs and become consultative partners will make a sale, the ones who rush through the process won’t, and the ones who sell their customers the wrong thing will make a problem (if not an expensive lawsuit) for the dealership.
2. Options really do matter
When you’re selling a conventional ICE-powered crossover to a typical suburbanite, moving your customer up or down a trim level doesn’t typically impact their use case. Sure, they might have to keep their foot planted a little longer to get up to highway speeds or learn to live with cloth when they really wanted leather or vinylvegan leather, but they’ll still be able to get five-to-seven adults from point A to point B with the same general effectiveness.
That’s not true when it comes to trucks that are going to get put to work. There, the difference between one axle ration and another can have a huge impact on driver comfort, towing capabilities, and fuel economy – and going from a one-ton truck that’s just outside the customer’s budget to a half-ton that you happen to have on the lot could get someone seriously hurt or killed.
It may be tempting to switch the customer to a vehicle you have on the lot (especially if that vehicle happens to be an aged unit with a fat spiff on it), but the long-term pain isn’t worth the short-term gain on this one.
3. Information is your friend
This might feel like a duplicate of the discovery phase, but think of it as a member of the “measure twice, cut once” advice genre. That is to say that, sure – the customer thinks that new 5th wheel RV they have on order weighs 11,000 lbs., but does it? Did they add any options of features (see no. 2) that make it heavier? Get the information from the RV manufacturer or dealer and confirm as much as you can. That extra work will help keep your customer safe and build trust.
Similarly, you’ll want to verify your assumptions when it comes to EVs. Is that once-a-month 300 mile drive really 300 miles, or is it 330? Is there more than one charging option available on their preferred route? Is the customer able to make their trip without changing the way your they drive? Are they willing to change up where they stop, or for how long?
When it comes to EVs, especially used ones that came onto your lot as part of a trade deal that you may not be intimately familiar with, I cannot stress how much route planning apps like Chargeway or A Better Route Planner can help salespeople answer questions about electric vehicles confidently and correctly, generate trust, and drive referrals.
4. Aftersales support is critical
Successful salespeople follow up – not just with prospects who are still shopping, but with customers who have already bought. And, just as RVers know other RVers, RV salespeople who get positive feedback about a local dealer who takes the time to make sure their customers get the right truck know RV customers who might need a right truck of their own.
Yes, those RV salespeople might expect a $100 bird dog bonus to send their customers your way, but the money on its own isn’t enough. They have to know they can trust you with their customers, and you build that trust in steps 1-3, above.
The reason BMW is consistently pulling ahead? It seems to come down to education. “First-time EV buyers are receiving minimal education or training,” explains Brent Gruber, executive director of the EV practice at J.D. Power. “Dealer and manufacturer representatives play the crucial role of front-line educators, but when it comes to EVs, the specific education needed to shorten the learning curve just isn’t happening often enough. The shortfall in buyer education is something we’re seeing with all brands.”
And, if you’re still not quite convinced that you need to learn how to sell EVs to be successful on the sales floor, think again.
Overall, 94% of BEV owners are likely to consider purchasing another BEV for their next vehicle, a rate that is also matched by first-time buyers. Manufacturers should take note of the strong consumer commitment to EVs as the high rate of repurchase intent offers the ability to generate brand loyal customers if the experience is a positive one. In fact, during the past several years, the BEV repurchase intent percentage has fluctuated very little, ranging between 94-97%. This year’s study also finds that only 12% of BEV owners are likely to consider replacing their EV with an internal combustion engine (ICE)-powered vehicle during their next purchase.
Listen to an EV convert who has desked an awful lot of car deals, greenpeas – if you treat every EV customer the same way that crusty old fleet rep treats his truck buyers, you’re going to sell a whole lot of EVs. And, if you’re a brave enough little toaster to follow up and ask for that referral, you’ll find that EV buyers know other EV buyers.
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There’s no exact way to track Tesla’s inventory in the US, but there are ways to track Tesla’s Cybertruck listings. Sometimes, Tesla may have many vehicles with the exact same configuration at the same location and it will only publish a single listing for it.
Therefore, Tesla might have been sitting on more Cybertruck inventory.
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A month later, the number of listings in the US has skyrocketed to over 10,000 Cybertrucks, according to Tesla-Info.com:
This surge could be due to an actual net increase in Cybertruck inventory, but Tesla is also heavily discounting the trucks at varying rates, creating several different prices and, therefore, more listings.
At an average sale price of $78,000, Tesla could have almost $800 million worth of Cybertrucks.
Due to low demand, Tesla appears to have significantly slowed down Cybertruck production in recent months. Therefore, this surge is likely more about Tesla discounting the vehicles, exposing the broader US inventory, than an actual major increase in inventory due to more production.
Many of the Cybertrucks in inventory were built in 2024, so they are already at least four months old. Tesla still has ‘Foundation Series’ Cybertrucks in inventory, which it stopped producing in October 2024—more than seven months ago.
This is about as bad as it gets. Over 10,000 units account for about two quarters of Tesla’s Cybertruck sales.
It already looks like Tesla has slowed Cybertruck production down to a crawl, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it pauses it soon. The hard part for Tesla is to admit defeat.
The Cybertruck RWD using the same battery pack as the AWD was already a sort of admission that Tesla found the vehicle program to be too small to be worth being produced with two battery pack sizes. The automaker did the same with Model S/X when the program’s volumes shrank following the launches of Model 3 and Model Y.
It looks like under the current circumstances, Tesla will have issues selling more than 20,000 Cybertrucks per year in the US despite having planned production for 250,000 units.
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