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A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023.

Fatemeh Bahrami | Anadolu | Getty Images

Oil prices have jumped more than $5 a barrel since the start of the week amid intensifying fears that Israel could launch an attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure.

The rally, which puts crude futures on track for gains of around 8% week-to-date, has surprised many market observers in that it appears to be somewhat subdued given what’s at stake.

Energy analysts have questioned whether oil markets are being too complacent about the risk of a widening conflict in the Middle East, particularly given that the fallout could disrupt oil flows from the key exporting region. Iran, which is a member of OPEC, is a major player in the global oil market. It’s estimated that as much as 4% of global supply could be at risk if Israel targets Iran’s oil facilities.

Goldman Sachs says a sustained fall in Iranian output could send oil prices up $20 a barrel, while Swedish bank SEB has warned that crude futures could rally to more than $200 a barrel in an extreme scenario.

For some analysts, the reason crude prices have yet to move even higher is because the oil market is short. This refers to a trading strategy in which an investor hopes to profit if the market value of an asset declines.

“There is a very large short position, not only in oil, you [also] see it in equities. In general, the investors don’t like this space. Why? They are concerned about a big oil supply glut next year,” Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.

Oil market is short, says Carlyle Group's chief strategy officer

“When we look at the situation today, it is starkly different. Inventories are low, curve is backwardated, demand is middling, it’s not great but now you have [China’s] stimulus package on top of that, and you still have the OPEC production cuts,” Currie said.

“On top of that, we’ve thrown in potential conflict in the Middle East that could take out some energy facilities, so the near-term outlook is positive, which is why the front of the curve is strong, but it is being weighed down on the back end over the fears of this big oil supply glut,” he added.

The market is backwardated, or in backwardation, when the futures price of oil is below the spot price. The opposite structure is known as contango.

‘The market is so short’

Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, echoed Currie’s view.

“The market is so short. We’ve never seen these levels of record shorts before,” Sen told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

Many oil traders appear to have taken a bearish position on the belief that China’s stimulus rally will fail to restore confidence in the world’s second-largest economy, Sen said, adding that market participants also tend to expect OPEC and non-OPEC allies to boost oil production later in the year.

U.S. hasn't been able to yield power it used to have in the Middle East, says Energy Aspects founder

“The market has just gotten itself into this fit of around bearishness but that’s why if it goes, we could be above $80 very quickly,” Sen said.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded 0.8% higher at $78.26 a barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $74.34, up 0.8% for the session.

Fundamentals ‘anything but encouraging’

Oil’s biggest move this week came on Thursday, when prices popped more than 5% following comments from U.S. President Joe Biden over a possible retaliatory move from Israel following Iran’s ballistic missile attack earlier in the week.

Asked by reporters whether the U.S. would support an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities, Biden said: “We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little – anyway.” The president added that “there’s nothing going to happen today.”

CNBC has reached out to the White House for further comment.

Oil prices could rally above $200 if Iran’s energy infrastructure is wiped out, analyst says

Tamas Varga, an analyst at oil broker PVM, told CNBC via email on Thursday that the oil market was pricing in some risk premium given the geopolitical concerns.

“This is why oil is stable-to-higher, equities are weakening, and the dollar is strong. These fears, however, will be greatly alleviated in [the] coming days unless oil supply from the region or traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are materially impacted,” he added.

Situated between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but strategically important waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.

“Under this scenario underlying fundamentals will become the driving force again and these fundamentals are anything but encouraging,” Varga said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday pledged to respond with force to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, insisting Tehran would “pay” for what he described as a “big mistake.” His comments came shortly after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.

Speaking during a visit to Qatar on Thursday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was “not in pursuit of war with Israel.” He warned, however, of a forceful response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions.

An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) speed boat is sailing along the Persian Gulf during the IRGC marine parade to commemorate Persian Gulf National Day, near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the seaport city of Bushehr, Bushehr province, in the south of Iran, on April 29, 2024.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said that oil prices were surprisingly steady given the high stakes.

“I think it is definitely a little bit about short covering, but [the price rally] is surprisingly weak … given the scenarios that might play out in the Middle East,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday.

Schieldrop said Brent crude prices had largely traded between $80 to $85 for around 18 months or so, before dipping below $70 in September. He described the oil contract’s recent move higher as “very meager,” especially given the “potentially devastating scenarios in the Middle East.”

— CNBC’s Spencer Kimball contributed to this report.

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Block leads rebound in fintech stocks as analysts downplay JPMorgan data fee risk

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Block leads rebound in fintech stocks as analysts downplay JPMorgan data fee risk

Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey testifies during a remote video hearing held by subcommittees of the U.S. House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee on “Social Media’s Role in Promoting Extremism and Misinformation” in Washington, U.S., March 25, 2021.

Handout | Via Reuters

Block jumped more than 5% on Monday, leading a rally in shares of fintech companies as analysts downplayed the threat of JPMorgan Chase’s reported plan to charge data aggregators for access to customer financial information.

The recovery followed steep declines on Friday, after Bloomberg reported that JPMorgan had circulated pricing sheets outlining potential fees for aggregators like Plaid and Yodlee, which connect fintech platforms to users’ bank data.

In a note to clients on Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said the potential new expenses were “far from a ‘business model-breaking’ cost increase.”

In addition to Block’s rise, PayPal climbed 3.5% on Monday after sliding Friday. Robinhood and Shift4 recorded modest gains.

Broader market momentum helped fuel some of the rebound. The Nasdaq closed at a record, and crypto rallied, with bitcoin climbing past $123,000. Ether, solana, and other altcoins also gained.

JPMorgan announces plans to charge for access to customer bank data

Evercore ISI’s analysts said that even if JPMorgan’s changes were implemented, the most immediate effect would be a slight bump in the cost of one-time account setups — perhaps 50 to 60 cents.

Morgan Stanley echoed that view, writing that any impact would be “negligible,” especially for large fintechs that rely more on debit, credit, or stored balances than bank account pulls for transactions.

PayPal doesn’t anticipate much short-term impact, according to a person with knowledge of the issue. The person, who asked not to be named in order to speak about private financial matters, noted that PayPal relies on aggregators primarily for account verification and already has long-term pricing contracts in place.

While smaller fintechs that depend heavily on automated clearing house (ACH) rails or Open Banking frameworks for onboarding and compliance may face real pressure if the fees take effect, analysts said the larger platforms are largely insulated.

WATCH: Congress moves to redraw $3.7 trillion crypto market rules, opening door to Wall Street

Congress moves to redraw $3.7 trillion crypto market rules, opening door to Wall Street

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EV sales hit 9.1M globally in H1 2025, but the US just hit the brakes

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EV sales hit 9.1M globally in H1 2025, but the US just hit the brakes

The global EV market is still charging ahead. According to new numbers from global research firm Rho Motion, 9.1 million EVs were sold worldwide in the first half of 2025, up 28% compared to the same period last year. But not every region is accelerating at the same pace.

China and Europe are doing the heavy lifting

More than half of the world’s EVs this year have been bought in China. That market hit 5.5 million sales in the first six months of 2025 – a 32% jump year-over-year. Around half of new cars bought in China are now electric.

While some Chinese cities’ subsidies have dried up, Rho Motion expects momentum to pick back up later in the year as more funding is released.

In Europe, 2 million EVs were sold in the first half of the year, up 26%. Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales also rose 26%, thanks in part to affordable models like the Renault 4 (pictured) and 5 entering the market. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) weren’t far behind, growing 27% year-to-date. Chinese automakers are leaning into PHEVs as a way to work around the EU’s new tariffs on BEVs.

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Spain is leading the pack with EV sales soaring 85% so far this year. Its generous MOVES III incentive program was extended in April and has kept sales strong. The UK and Germany are also seeing solid growth – 32% and 40%, respectively. France, however, is slumping. With subsidies cut, EV sales there have dropped 13%.

North America is stuck in the slow lane

Things aren’t looking quite as bright in North America. EV sales in the US, Canada, and Mexico are up just 3% so far this year.

Mexico is the one bright spot, with a 20% boost. The US is up 6%. But Canada is down a whopping 23%.

And things could get bumpier. On July 4, Trump signed Congress’s big bill into law, which axes all the Inflation Reduction Act EV tax credits. Those consumer credits for EVs now officially end on September 30.

Just over half of the EVs sold in the US this year qualified for those credits. Rho Motion predicts a rush in Q3 before the subsidies disappear – and a decline in sales after that.

Rho Motion data manager Charles Lester said, “With Trump’s latest cuts in his ‘Big Beautiful Bill,’ the US could struggle to see any growth in the EV market overall in 2025.”

Global EV sales snapshot, H1 2025 vs H1 2024

  • Global: 9.1 million (+28%)
  • China: 5.5 million (+32%)
  • Europe: 2.0 million (+26%)
  • North America: 0.9 million (+3%)
  • Rest of world: 0.7 million (+40%)

Read more: China breaks records as global EV sales hit 7.2 million in 2025


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The Lucid Air is crushing the competition as the best-selling luxury EV sedan in the US

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The Lucid Air is crushing the competition as the best-selling luxury EV sedan in the US

Lucid’s electric sedan can drive further, charge faster, and packs more advanced tech than most of the competition. That might explain why it’s leading the segment. The Lucid Air remained the best-selling luxury EV sedan in the US after widening its lead in the Q2.

The Lucid Air is America’s best-selling luxury EV sedan

The 2025 Lucid Air Pure arrived as the “World’s most efficient car” with an EPA-estimated range of 420 miles and a record 146 MPGe.

It just set a new Guinness World Record last week for the longest journey by an electric car after travelling 749 miles (1,205 km) on a single charge.

That record was set in the range-topping Lucid Air Grand Touring model, which is rated for up to 512 miles of EPA-estimated range. On the WLTP scale, it’s rated at 597 miles (960 km). Either way, it still crushed the estimates.

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According to second-quarter sales data, released by Kelley Blue Book on Monday, the Lucid Air is still America’s best-selling luxury EV.

Lucid sold 2,630 Air models in Q2, up 10% from the previous year. Through the first half of 2025, Lucid Air sales are up 17% with 5,094 units sold.

Lucid-Air-best-selling-luxury-EV-sedan
Lucid Air (Source: Lucid)

Tesla, on the other hand, only sold 1,435 Model Ss during the quarter, 71% fewer than it did in Q2 2024. Tesla Model S sales in the US are down 70% through the first half of the year at 2,715.

Although Porsche Taycan sales were up 32% with 1,064 models sold, the significantly upgraded 2025 model year was expected to see even more demand. Porsche has 2,083 Taycans in the US this year, up just 1% from 2024.

Lucid-best-selling-luxury-EV-sedan
Lucid Air Pure interior (Source: Lucid)

Other luxury EV sedans, such as the BMW i5 (1,434), i7 (820), and the Mercedes EQS (498), experienced steep double-digit sales declines year-over-year.

And it’s not just electric luxury sedans. The Lucid Air is currently outselling many gas-powered vehicles in its segment.

Lucid-Air-best-selling-luxury-EV-sedan
Lucid Air (left) and Gravity (right) Source: Lucid

Lucid’s first electric SUV, the Gravity, is also rolling out. Although only five were sold in the second quarter, Lucid is quickly scaling production. Lucid aims to produce 20,000 vehicles this year, more than double the roughly 9,000 it built in 2024.

Earlier today, Lucid’s interim CEO, Marc Winterhoff, confirmed during an interview with Bloomberg that the company expects higher Gravity output in the second half of the year.

The interview was at the grand opening of Panasonic’s new battery cell plant in De Soto, Kansas. Winterhoff said Lucid will start using new cells from the facility, but not until next year.

Lucid’s CEO stressed the importance of establishing a local supply chain, as policy changes under the Trump Administration are taking effect. Lucid and Panasonic are collaborating to localize EV materials, such as graphite. Last month, Lucid secured a multi-year supply agreement with Graphite One for US-sourced Graphite.

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