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Ask most party strategists, US pollsters or pundits and they’ll tell you the 2024 presidential election could be the closest in decades, if not a century.

Given Joe Biden’s 2020 win was decided by fewer than 45,000 votes in just three battleground states, that’s quite the claim.

However, it is what the polls suggest. The contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is super tight, both nationally and in the key states.

So, how much can we trust the polls?

It’s a question many are raising after they famously got it so wrong four years ago.

The American Association for Public Opinion Research called it the biggest polling miss in 40 years, showing Mr Biden’s lead over Mr Trump in the final two weeks of the campaign twice as large as it was when the votes were counted.

In 2012, pollsters significantly under-estimated Barack Obama’s lead over Mitt Romney. But, while Mr Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton shocked many people, the error on the national polls was relatively small by comparison.

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Of course, all polls come with uncertainty, some inbuilt error, and they are only a snapshot of the current situation, not a prediction of the outcome on polling day.

Crucially, though, there is evidence they also become a more reliable predictor of the outcome the closer we get to the election. It may seem obvious, but a year out from voting the polls are on average seven points different from the final tally for each candidate. By the last week of the campaign, this falls to less than three points.

Every day the polls tell us a little bit more about the result.

So, how should we read them?

One key thing to remember is the uncertainty around the estimated support for the candidates.

Uncertainty: ‘Margin of error’

While pollsters publish a percentage figure for each, they also report a ‘margin of error’ to indicate the amount that support might vary.

For example, if a poll puts Mr Trump on 46% with a three-percentage point margin of error, it means that his support among the voting public should lie between 43% and 49%. If the same poll has Ms Harris on 49%, then her support should lie between 46% and 52%.

All this tells us is that the contest is close and either candidate could be leading.

Similar caution is required when looking at trackers using polling averages.

You might think that averaging the polls would reduce uncertainty, since random errors should cancel out. But some pollsters are consistently more accurate than others, while some may be systematically wrong in one direction. Adding them all together can reinforce those biases.

Read more on the election:
What exactly happens on the night of the US election?

How does Donald Trump keep his support so strong?

Trump in Wisconsin at the start of the month. Pic: AP
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Trump in Wisconsin at the start of the month. Pic: AP

Predicting the turnout: Context matters

Who votes in an election is also critical to the outcome but predicting that is a tough ask for pollsters. Roughly a third of eligible Americans do not cast a ballot in presidential elections, and it isn’t all the same people each time.

Context matters. It can make people more or less likely to vote. For example, potential changes to abortion laws seems to have mobilised many Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections.

The policies and performance of a candidate can also change the likelihood of more partisan voters to turnout.

The Electoral College: Why state contests can be crucial

The same considerations are needed when looking at state polls and arguably they are more crucial to determining which candidate is most likely to win the election.

The outcome of a presidential race is decided state by state, by the Electoral College, and the difference between that and the national vote has been growing.

Read more: What is the Electoral College?

6.	U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris discusses reproductive rights on the second anniversary of Roe v. Wade being overturned, in Phoenix, Arizona, U.S. June 24, 2024.  REUTERS/Rebecca Noble
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Harris discusses abortion rights in Arizona in June. Pic: Reuters/Rebecca Noble

In 2000 and in 2016, the candidate with the most votes nationally lost the election because they didn’t win a combination of states that delivered the highest tally in the Electoral College.

This is why battleground state polls get so much attention and they are factored into the models of statisticians trying to forecast the outcome.

Of course, they have the same uncertainty and potential flaws as national polls. And the bad news is their recent performance hasn’t been great.

In 2016 they suggested Ms Clinton would sweep the key states needed for a comfortable win in the Electoral College. In 2020, they fared even worse.

Some states have proven particularly difficult to poll accurately. In 2016 and 2020, the biggest misses were in Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

These, especially Pennsylvania, which of the group carries the most Electoral College votes, are all potentially decisive in 2024.

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So, what can the polls tell us?

The answer is plenty if you are looking for a steer on how people feel about a certain candidate or policy.

But, if you’re trying to work out who’s ahead in the race to be president, then all you can confidently say is the contest is really close and could come down to a small number of votes in a few states.

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UK and US announce trade deal to save thousands of British jobs, Starmer says

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UK and US announce trade deal to save thousands of British jobs, Starmer says

The UK and US have agreed a trade deal, with Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump confirming the announcement during a live televised phone call.

It is the first trade deal agreed after Mr Trump began his second presidential term in January, and after he imposed strict tariffs on countries around the world in April.

Sir Keir said the “first-of-a-kind” deal with the US will save thousands of jobs across the UK, boost British business and protect British industry.

Politics latest: Trump and Starmer say trade deal just the start

The deal includes:

• Lowering 27.5% tariff on British car exports to the US to 10%, affecting 100,000 vehicles each year

• UK steel and aluminium industries will no longer face any tariffs after they had 25% duties placed on them

• Beef exports allowed both ways

• UK to have “preferential treatment whatever happens in the future” on pharmaceuticals, the president said.

However, there is a still a 10% tariff on most UK goods imported into the US after Mr Trump imposed that duty on most countries’ exports last month.

Mr Trump said the “final details” of the agreement were still being “written up”.

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Watch full call with Trump and Starmer

Trade minister Douglas Alexander told parliament the UK has “committed to further negotiations on tariff reductions”.

MPs will be able to debate the deal and any legislation needed to implement it, he added.

Sir Keir said “this is a really fantastic, historic day” that will “boost trade between and across our countries”, while Mr Trump said the agreement would be a “great deal for both countries”.

The president said the deal will make both the UK and the US “much bigger in terms of trade” as he thanked Sir Keir, who he said has been “terrific for his partnership in this matter…we have a great relationship”.

Sir Keir said it was achieved by not playing politics, and insisted the UK can have good trade relations with both the US and the EU.

Red lines on beef and chicken

The PM said the UK had “red lines” on standards written into the agreement, particularly on agriculture.

Mr Alexander told the Commons: “Let me be clear that the imports of hormone-treated beef or chlorinated chicken will remain illegal.

“The deal we’ve signed today will protect British farmers and uphold our high animal welfare and environmental standards.”

Read more:
UK and India strike ‘historic’ trade deal

Starmer faces rebellion from Labour MPs over welfare reforms

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Sky challenges Trump on trade deal

‘American beef is the safest’

US agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins said the deal will “exponentially increase our beef exports”, and added: “To be very clear, American beef is the safest, the best quality, and the crown jewel of American agriculture for the world.”

On whether the UK will have to accept all US beef and chicken, Mr Trump said: “They’ll take what they want, we have plenty of it, we have every type, we have every classification you can have.”

Hinting the US will move towards higher welfare practices, he said US health secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr “is doing a tremendous job and he’s probably heading toward your system with no chemical, no this, no that”.

‘A Diet Coke deal’

Previous UK governments have attempted – and failed – to secure a free trade agreement with the US, but Sir Keir had made it a high priority.

Conservative shadow trade secretary Andrew Griffith chastised the deal, saying the UK is still in the same category as Burundi and Bhutan.

“It’s a Diet Coke deal, not the real thing,” he told the Commons.

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Man accused of harassing Jennifer Aniston for two years before crashing car through gates of her home

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Man accused of harassing Jennifer Aniston for two years before crashing car through gates of her home

A man has been charged after allegedly harassing Hollywood actress Jennifer Aniston for two years before crashing his car through the front gate of her home, prosecutors have said.

Jimmy Wayne Carwyle, of New Albany, Mississippi, is accused of having repeatedly sent the Friends star unwanted voicemail, email and social media messages since 2023.

The 48-year-old is then alleged to have crashed his grey Chrysler PT Cruiser through the front gate of Aniston’s home in the wealthy Bel Air neighbourhood of Los Angeles early on Monday afternoon.

Prosecutors said the collision caused major damage.

Police have said Aniston was at home at the time.

A security guard stopped Carwyle on her driveway before police arrived and arrested him.

There were no reports of anyone being injured.

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Carwyle has been charged with felony stalking and vandalism, prosecutors said on Thursday.

He also faces an aggravating circumstance of the threat of great bodily harm, Los Angeles County district attorney Nathan Hochman said.

Carwyle, who has been held in jail since his arrest on Monday, is set to appear in court on Thursday.

His bail has been set at $150,000 dollars (£112,742).

He is facing up to three years in prison if he is convicted as charged.

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“My office is committed to aggressively prosecuting those who stalk and terrorise others, ensuring they are held accountable,” Mr Hochman said in a statement.

Aniston bought her mid-century mansion in Bel Air on a 3.4-acre site for about 21 million dollars (£15.78m) in 2012, according to reporting by Architectural Digest.

She became one of the biggest stars on television in her 10 years on NBC’s Friends.

Aniston won an Emmy Award for best lead actress in a comedy for the role, and she has been nominated for nine more.

She has appeared in several Hollywood films and currently stars in The Morning Show on Apple TV+.

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Tyre Nichols death: Ex-police officers found not guilty of murdering motorist in US

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Tyre Nichols death: Ex-police officers found not guilty of murdering motorist in US

Three former police officers in the US have been found not guilty of murder over the death of motorist Tyre Nichols.

Tadarrius Bean, Demetrius Haley and Justin Smith were acquitted by jurors following a nine-day trial at Tennessee state court.

The former Memphis officers were also found not guilty of aggravated assault, aggravated kidnapping, official misconduct and official oppression.

Mr Nichols, a father of one, died three days after officers punched, kicked and hit him with a baton in January 2023 as he was just yards from his home.

Former Memphis Police Department officers Demetrius Haley, center, Tadarrius Bean, left, and Justin Smith Jr., right, hug each other after they were acquitted of state charges, including second-degree murder, in the fatal beating of Tyre Nichols after he ran away from a traffic stop. Wednesday, May 7, 2025, in Memphis, Tenn. (Chris Day/Commercial Appeal/USA Today Network via AP, Pool)
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The defendants hugged each other after being acquitted of the charges. Pic: Commercial Appeal/USA Today Network/AP

The 29-year-old’s death and a video of the incident – in which he cried out for his mother – sparked outrage in the US including nationwide protests and led to police reform.

Civil rights attorney Ben Crump, who represents Nichols’ family, described the verdicts as a “devastating miscarriage of justice”. In a statement, he added: “The world watched as Tyre Nichols was beaten to death by those sworn to protect and serve.”

Memphis District Attorney Steve Mulroy said he was “surprised that there wasn’t a single guilty verdict on any of the counts” including second-degree murder. He said Mr Nichols’ family “were devastated… I think they were outraged”.

From left Tadarrius Bean, Demetrius Haley, Justin Smith, three former Memphis officers acquitted of state charges, including second-degree murder, in the fatal beating of Tyre Nichols after he ran away from a traffic stop in 2023. Memphis Police Dept. / via AP file
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Former police officers Tadarrius Bean, Demetrius Haley, Justin Smith were accused of second-degree murder. Pic: Memphis Police Dept/AP


But despite the three defendants being acquitted of state charges during the trial in Memphis, they still face the prospect of years in prison after they were convicted of federal charges of witness tampering last year.

Two other former officers previously pleaded guilty in both state and federal court. Desmond Mills Jr. gave evidence as a prosecution witness, while Emmitt Martin was blamed for the majority of the violence.

Sentencing for all five officers is pending.

Protesters march down the street Friday, Jan. 27, 2023, in Memphis, Tenn., as authorities release police video depicting five Memphis officers beating Tyre Nichols, whose death resulted in murder charges and provoked outrage at the country's latest instance of police brutality. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
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Tyre Nichols’ death sparked street protests in January 2023 in Memphis and across the US. Pic: AP

Video evidence showed Mr Nichols was stopped in his car, yanked from his vehicle, pepper-sprayed and hit with a Taser. He broke free and ran away before the five police officers caught up with him again, and the beating took place.

Prosecutors argued that the officers used excessive, deadly force in trying to handcuff Mr Nichols and were criminally responsible for each others’ actions.

They also said the officers had a duty to intervene and stop the beating and tell medics that Mr Nichols had been hit repeatedly in the head, but they failed to do so.

The trial heard Mr Nichols suffered tears and bleeding in the brain and died from blunt force trauma.

The defence suggested Mr Nichols was on drugs, giving him the strength to fight off five strong officers, and was actively resisting arrest.

In December, the US Justice Department said a 17-month investigation showed the Memphis Police Department uses excessive force and discriminates against Black people.

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