Ask most party strategists, US pollsters or pundits and they’ll tell you the 2024 presidential election could be the closest in decades, if not a century.
Given Joe Biden’s 2020 win was decided by fewer than 45,000 votes in just three battleground states, that’s quite the claim.
However, it is what the polls suggest. The contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is super tight, both nationally and in the key states.
So, how much can we trust the polls?
It’s a question many are raising after they famously got it so wrong four years ago.
The American Association for Public Opinion Research called it the biggest polling miss in 40 years, showing Mr Biden’s lead over Mr Trump in the final two weeks of the campaign twice as large as it was when the votes were counted.
In 2012, pollsters significantly under-estimated Barack Obama’s lead over Mitt Romney. But, while Mr Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton shocked many people, the error on the national polls was relatively small by comparison.
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Of course, all polls come with uncertainty, some inbuilt error, and they are only a snapshot of the current situation, not a prediction of the outcome on polling day.
Crucially, though, there is evidence they also become a more reliable predictor of the outcome the closer we get to the election. It may seem obvious, but a year out from voting the polls are on average seven points different from the final tally for each candidate. By the last week of the campaign, this falls to less than three points.
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Every day the polls tell us a little bit more about the result.
So, how should we read them?
One key thing to remember is the uncertainty around the estimated support for the candidates.
Uncertainty: ‘Margin of error’
While pollsters publish a percentage figure for each, they also report a ‘margin of error’ to indicate the amount that support might vary.
For example, if a poll puts Mr Trump on 46% with a three-percentage point margin of error, it means that his support among the voting public should lie between 43% and 49%. If the same poll has Ms Harris on 49%, then her support should lie between 46% and 52%.
All this tells us is that the contest is close and either candidate could be leading.
Similar caution is required when looking at trackers using polling averages.
You might think that averaging the polls would reduce uncertainty, since random errors should cancel out. But some pollsters are consistently more accurate than others, while some may be systematically wrong in one direction. Adding them all together can reinforce those biases.
Image: Trump in Wisconsin at the start of the month. Pic: AP
Predicting the turnout: Context matters
Who votes in an election is also critical to the outcome but predicting that is a tough ask for pollsters. Roughly a third of eligible Americans do not cast a ballot in presidential elections, and it isn’t all the same people each time.
Context matters. It can make people more or less likely to vote. For example, potential changes to abortion laws seems to have mobilised many Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections.
The policies and performance of a candidate can also change the likelihood of more partisan voters to turnout.
The Electoral College: Why state contests can be crucial
The same considerations are needed when looking at state polls and arguably they are more crucial to determining which candidate is most likely to win the election.
The outcome of a presidential race is decided state by state, by the Electoral College, and the difference between that and the national vote has been growing.
Image: Harris discusses abortion rights in Arizona in June. Pic: Reuters/Rebecca Noble
In 2000 and in 2016, the candidate with the most votes nationally lost the election because they didn’t win a combination of states that delivered the highest tally in the Electoral College.
This is why battleground state polls get so much attention and they are factored into the models of statisticians trying to forecast the outcome.
Of course, they have the same uncertainty and potential flaws as national polls. And the bad news is their recent performance hasn’t been great.
In 2016 they suggested Ms Clinton would sweep the key states needed for a comfortable win in the Electoral College. In 2020, they fared even worse.
Some states have proven particularly difficult to poll accurately. In 2016 and 2020, the biggest misses were in Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
These, especially Pennsylvania, which of the group carries the most Electoral College votes, are all potentially decisive in 2024.
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The answer is plenty if you are looking for a steer on how people feel about a certain candidate or policy.
But, if you’re trying to work out who’s ahead in the race to be president, then all you can confidently say is the contest is really close and could come down to a small number of votes in a few states.
What did the BBC do to anger Donald Trump? And what has he said about the resignations?
It didn’t take long for the White House to react – and that’s unsurprising given that the resignations were driven, on the face of it at least, by the BBC’s splicing together of that Trump speech from January 2021.
It was clear on Friday that the White House was keen to weigh into the BBC row, with the White House press secretary using an interview with The Daily Telegraph to slam the BBC.
“This purposefully dishonest, selectively edited clip by the BBC is further evidence that they are total, 100% fake news that should no longer be worth the time on the television screens of the great people of the United Kingdom,” Karoline Leavitt told the newspaper.
Image: Donald Trump during the speech on January 6, 2021. AP file pic
After last night’s resignations, Mr Trump posted a lengthy statement on Truth Social.
“The TOP people in the BBC, including TIM DAVIE, the BOSS, are all quitting/FIRED, because they were caught “doctoring” my very good (PERFECT!) speech of January 6th,” he wrote.
“Thank you to The Telegraph for exposing these Corrupt ‘Journalists.’ These are very dishonest people who tried to step on the scales of a Presidential Election. On top of everything else, they are from a Foreign Country, one that many consider our Number One Ally. What a terrible thing for Democracy!”
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It was the Telegraph that leaked the internal memo last week in which it was revealed that a BBC Panorama report – aired just before the election last year – had spliced together two parts of a long Trump speech which he made on 6 January 2021.
Mr Trump gave a speech that day. In a Panorama report broadcast just before the US election last year, the BBC aired a clip from the speech.
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2:17
Why ‘Teflon Tim’ resigned from BBC
The following is the transcript of that clip.
“We’re gonna walk down to the Capitol and I’ll be with you and we fight. We fight like hell and if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not gonna have a country anymore.”
The clip was presented as one sentence – one thought. However, it was actually two distinct parts of the speech spliced together, reordered and covered with pictures of the crowd to hide the join – known as the edit point or cut.
Had the Panorama production team not edited the clip ,this is what viewers would have heard. The sections used by Panorama are in bold for clarity.
“After this, we’re going to walk down – and I’ll be there with you – we’re gonna walk down, we’re gonna walk down anyone you want, but I think right here, we’re going to walk down to the Capitol, and we’re going to cheer on our brave congressmen and women, and we probably not gonna be cheering so much for some of them. Because you’re never going to take back our country with weakness you have to be strong. We have come to demand that Congress do the right thing, and only count the electors who have been lawfully slated. I know that everyone will soon be marching down to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.”
The “fight like hell” line came about an hour later – right at the end of the speech. Here it is in full. Again, the section used by Panorama are in bold for clarity.
“And again, most people would stand there at 9 o’clock in the evening and say I want to thank you very much, and they go off to some other life. But I said something’s wrong here, something is really wrong, can’t have happened. And we fight. We fight like hell. And if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore. Our exciting adventures and boldest endeavours have not yet begun. My fellow Americans, for our movement, for our children, and for our beloved country. And I say this despite all that’s happened. The best is yet to come. So we’re going to, we’re going to walk down Pennsylvania Avenue. I love Pennsylvania Avenue. And we’re going to the Capitol. The Democrats are hopeless, they never vote for anything. Not even one vote. But we’re going to try and give our Republicans, the weak ones because the strong ones don’t need any of our help. We’re going to try and give them the kind of pride and boldness that they need to take back our country. So let’s walk down Pennsylvania Avenue. I want to thank you all. God bless you and God Bless America.”
The riot at the Capitol building unfolded that afternoon.
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2:00
2021: How chaos unfolded at the US Capitol
The president and his team have always claimed the “fight like hell” comment was purely rhetorical, and they have dismissed accusations that Mr Trump encouraged the unrest.
Trump’s alleged role in the unrest and his broader efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election were the subject of a federal criminal case. The president was indicted on four felony counts.
But in a final report released last January, federal prosecutor Jack Smith said he believed there was enough evidence to convict Mr Trump in a trial had it happened.
There is a legitimate and enduring debate over Mr Trump’s role in the events of January 6th. But that does not in any way explain or excuse BBC’s decision to splice together and reorder two distinct parts of the president’s speech.
This – along with reported perks such as meals sent to her dormitory room, late-night workouts and permission to shower when other inmates are in bed – have led some critics to claim she is receiving “VIP treatment”.
Image: Maxwell is now serving her sentence at Federal Prison Camp Bryan in Texas. AP file pic
Describing conditions at Federal Prison Camp Bryan, Maxwell wrote to a relative: “The food is legions better, the place is clean, the staff polite… I haven’t heard or seen the usual foul language or screaming accompanied by threats levelled by inmates by anyone.
“I have not seen a single fight, drug deal, passed out person or naked inmate running around or several of them congregating in a shower! In other words, I feel like I have dropped through Alice in Wonderland’s looking glass.”
Some of Maxwell’s new inmates have told The Wall Street Journal that they have been threatened with retaliation if they speak about her to the media – with reports suggesting at least one was transferred.
Image: Ghislaine Maxwell
Her lawyer David Oscar Markus told NBC News: “There’s nothing journalistic about publishing a prisoner’s private emails, including ones with her lawyers. That’s tabloid behaviour, not responsible reporting.
“Anyone still interested in that kind of gossip reveals far more about themselves than about Ghislaine. It’s time to get over the fact that she is in a safer facility. We should want that for everyone.”
Meanwhile, Maxwell’s brother Ian said their messages were ” private by their very nature” – and if they were sent to a reporter, “they were stolen and leaked without authorisation”.
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2:03
‘I don’t believe Epstein died by suicide’ – Maxwell
Federal Prison Camp Bryan is located in a residential area, ringed with barbed wire and houses about 635 prisoners – and Maxwell’s arrival over the summer sparked protests.
One demonstrator said back in August: “It’s brought a lot of attention to our town that we haven’t consented for. We don’t want a child sex trafficker here.”
Mr Trump told reporters at the time that he was planning to speak to the Justice Department and “would have to take a look” at whether he would consider clemency.
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1:47
Congress calls Andrew: New repercussions for royals?
Epstein died by suicide while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges back in 2019, but pressure remains on those who had connections to the disgraced financier.
Earlier this week, the US Congress wrote to Andrew Mountbatten Windsor – who has now been stripped of his royal titles by the King – requesting an interview about his “long-standing friendship” with Epstein.
US officials have issued an emergency order banning flights of the model of plane involved in a deadly crash in Kentucky last week, pending inspection.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued the Emergency Airworthiness Directive (AD) for McDonnell Douglas MD-11 aircraft after a UPS plane bound for Honolulu crashed on take-off in Louisville on Tuesday evening, killing 14 people. The victims included three pilots.
The FAA said the order, which came following a recommendation by its manufacturer Boeing, was prompted after “an accident where the left-hand engine and pylon detached from the airplane”.
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1:55
Fire and debris after fatal cargo plane crash
A spokesperson for the authority added: “The cause of the detachment is currently under investigation. This condition could result in the loss of continued safe flight and landing.
“The FAA is issuing this AD because the agency has determined the unsafe condition is likely to exist or develop in other products of the same type design.
“The AD prohibits further flight until the airplane is inspected and all applicable corrective actions are performed.”
The MD-11 was first manufactured by McDonnell Douglas in 1988, until its merger with Boeing in 1997.
Image: A UPS MD11 landing at Philadelphia airport in March 2025. Pic: Wikipedia/Hamproductions
It was once used by commercial airlines, including Finnair and KLM, as a passenger jet, but was retired in 2014, and is now used only as a freight plane.
Government shutdown impacts commercial flights
It came as more than 1,300 commercial flights were cancelled in the US on Saturday because of an FAA order, unrelated to the Kentucky crash, to reduce air traffic amid the ongoing government shutdown.
The deadlock in Washington has resulted in shortages of air traffic control staff, who have not been paid for weeks.
Officials have warned that the number of daily cancellations could rise in the coming days unless the political row is resolved.