Can we trust the polls for the US election?

Published

9 months ago

October 5, 2024

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Ask most party strategists, US pollsters or pundits and they’ll tell you the 2024 presidential election could be the closest in decades, if not a century.

Given Joe Biden’s 2020 win was decided by fewer than 45,000 votes in just three battleground states, that’s quite the claim.

However, it is what the polls suggest. The contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is super tight, both nationally and in the key states.

So, how much can we trust the polls?

It’s a question many are raising after they famously got it so wrong four years ago.

The American Association for Public Opinion Research called it the biggest polling miss in 40 years, showing Mr Biden’s lead over Mr Trump in the final two weeks of the campaign twice as large as it was when the votes were counted.

In 2012, pollsters significantly under-estimated Barack Obama’s lead over Mitt Romney. But, while Mr Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton shocked many people, the error on the national polls was relatively small by comparison.

Of course, all polls come with uncertainty, some inbuilt error, and they are only a snapshot of the current situation, not a prediction of the outcome on polling day.

Crucially, though, there is evidence they also become a more reliable predictor of the outcome the closer we get to the election. It may seem obvious, but a year out from voting the polls are on average seven points different from the final tally for each candidate. By the last week of the campaign, this falls to less than three points.

Every day the polls tell us a little bit more about the result.

So, how should we read them?

One key thing to remember is the uncertainty around the estimated support for the candidates.

Uncertainty: ‘Margin of error’

While pollsters publish a percentage figure for each, they also report a ‘margin of error’ to indicate the amount that support might vary.

For example, if a poll puts Mr Trump on 46% with a three-percentage point margin of error, it means that his support among the voting public should lie between 43% and 49%. If the same poll has Ms Harris on 49%, then her support should lie between 46% and 52%.

All this tells us is that the contest is close and either candidate could be leading.

Similar caution is required when looking at trackers using polling averages.

You might think that averaging the polls would reduce uncertainty, since random errors should cancel out. But some pollsters are consistently more accurate than others, while some may be systematically wrong in one direction. Adding them all together can reinforce those biases.

Predicting the turnout: Context matters

Who votes in an election is also critical to the outcome but predicting that is a tough ask for pollsters. Roughly a third of eligible Americans do not cast a ballot in presidential elections, and it isn’t all the same people each time.

Context matters. It can make people more or less likely to vote. For example, potential changes to abortion laws seems to have mobilised many Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections.

The policies and performance of a candidate can also change the likelihood of more partisan voters to turnout.

The Electoral College: Why state contests can be crucial

The same considerations are needed when looking at state polls and arguably they are more crucial to determining which candidate is most likely to win the election.

The outcome of a presidential race is decided state by state, by the Electoral College, and the difference between that and the national vote has been growing.

Read more: What is the Electoral College?

In 2000 and in 2016, the candidate with the most votes nationally lost the election because they didn’t win a combination of states that delivered the highest tally in the Electoral College.

This is why battleground state polls get so much attention and they are factored into the models of statisticians trying to forecast the outcome.

Of course, they have the same uncertainty and potential flaws as national polls. And the bad news is their recent performance hasn’t been great.

In 2016 they suggested Ms Clinton would sweep the key states needed for a comfortable win in the Electoral College. In 2020, they fared even worse.

Some states have proven particularly difficult to poll accurately. In 2016 and 2020, the biggest misses were in Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

These, especially Pennsylvania, which of the group carries the most Electoral College votes, are all potentially decisive in 2024.

So, what can the polls tell us?

The answer is plenty if you are looking for a steer on how people feel about a certain candidate or policy.

But, if you’re trying to work out who’s ahead in the race to be president, then all you can confidently say is the contest is really close and could come down to a small number of votes in a few states.

US

Bryan Kohberger pleads guilty to murdering four University of Idaho students in 2022

Published

6 hours ago

July 2, 2025

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Bryan Kohberger pleads guilty to murdering four University of Idaho students in 2022

A man has pleaded guilty to murdering four University of Idaho students in November 2022.

Bryan Kohberger, a 30-year-old former criminal justice student, was arrested at his parents’ home in Pennsylvania weeks after the killings.

He was accused of sneaking into the rented home in Moscow, Idaho, which is not far from the university campus, and attacking Ethan Chapin, Xana Kernodle, Madison Mogen and Kaylee Goncalves.

Kohberger previously pleaded not guilty to charges of murder and burglary.

It comes after he agreed to a plea deal, just weeks before his trial was set to begin, in a bid to avoid the death penalty.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

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Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ has sparked ugly debate – so why is it so controversial?

Published

7 hours ago

July 2, 2025

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Donald Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' has sparked ugly debate - so why is it so controversial?

It is certainly big – 940 pages long – but on the question of beauty, Congress is divided.

Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” has sparked ugly debate – both for its ambitious scope and for the political manoeuvring that’s gone on around it.

Elon Musk branded it “political suicide” for Republicans and threatened to fund challenges against those who back it in next year’s midterm elections.

But the president hit back, suggesting he would consider cutting Musk’s lucrative government contracts or even deporting him back to South Africa.

The “big, beautiful bill”, or HR 1 to give the proposed legislation its proper title, is Mr Trump’s signature spending and tax policy.

It extends tax cuts he secured in 2017 and bankrolls his second-term agenda in the White House.

Here is a summary of the key points:

• Permanent tax cuts: Extending relief from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

• Small business support: Doubling the small business expensing limit to $2.5m (£1.8m) to help businesses expand and hire staff

• Child tax credit: Expanding the child tax credit and making it permanent, benefiting 40 million families

• Making housing affordable: Expanding the low-income housing tax credit to kickstart construction of affordable homes

• Defence and border security: Allocating $170bn (£123bn) for border security alone, including $46bn (£33bn) for completing the border wall

• Made-in-America incentives: Providing tax breaks and incentives for domestic manufacturing to promote US industry

• Healthcare and social welfare: Implementing restrictions on Medicaid, which provides healthcare for millions of Americans, and reducing funding for certain healthcare and nutrition programmes.

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Clash over ‘monster’ debt bill

Musk, Mr Trump’s former ally and the man who established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), claimed the bill “raises the debt ceiling by $5trn, the biggest increase in history.”

“DOGE is the monster that might have to go back and eat Elon,” was President Trump’s response.

The national debt currently stands at $37trn (£27trn) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill could add $2.4trn (£1.7trn) to that over the next decade.

Bill splits Republican ranks

Republican Senator Thom Tillis voted against the bill and, following criticism from the president, announced he would not seek re-election in North Carolina.

He said he couldn’t support it due to his concerns about the impact cuts to Medicaid would have on people in his state.

Democrats in the Senate forced a full reading of all 940 pages and then a vote-a-rama, a series of marathon voting sessions.

In the House of Representatives, it passed by a single vote, 215-214. In the Senate, Vice President JD Vance, had to cast the deciding vote to break a tie (50-50).

Legislatively, the progress of the bill has been a case study in the complexities of American law-making.

Strategically, it represents a mammoth effort to consolidate the president’s policy agenda and secure his legacy.

US

Gaza ceasefire proposal a significant moment – but there are still many unanswered questions

Published

7 hours ago

July 2, 2025

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Gaza ceasefire proposal a significant moment - but there are still many unanswered questions

In the long Gaza war, this is a significant moment.

For the people of Gaza, for the Israeli hostages and their families – this could be the moment it ends. But we have been here before, so many times.

The key question – will Hamas accept what Israel has agreed to: a 60-day ceasefire?

At the weekend, a source at the heart of the negotiations told me: “Both Hamas and Israel are refusing to budge from their position – Hamas wants the ceasefire to last until a permanent agreement is reached.

“Israel is opposed to this. At this point, only President Trump can break this deadlock.”

The source added: “Unless Trump pushes, we are in a stalemate.”

Israel-Gaza – live updates

The problem is that the announcement made now by Donald Trump – which is his social-media-summarised version of whatever Israel has actually agreed to – may just amount to Israel’s already-established position.

We don’t know the details and conditions attached to Israel’s proposals.

Would Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza? Totally? Or partially? How many Palestinian prisoners would they agree to release from Israel’s jails? And why only 60 days? Why not a total ceasefire? What are they asking of Hamas in return?

We just don’t know the answers to any of these questions, except one.

We do know why Israel wants a 60-day ceasefire, not a permanent one. It’s all about domestic politics.

If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were to agree now to a permanent ceasefire, the extreme right-wingers in his coalition would collapse his government.

Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have both been clear about their desire for the war to continue. They hold the balance of power in Mr Netanyahu’s coalition.

If Mr Netanyahu instead agrees to just 60 days – which domestically he can sell as just a pause – then that may placate the extreme right-wingers for a few weeks until the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, is adjourned for the summer.

It is also no coincidence that the US president has called for Mr Netanyahu’s corruption trial to be scrapped.

Without the prospect of jail, Mr Netanyahu might be more willing to quit the war, safe in the knowledge that focus will not shift immediately to his own political and legal vulnerability.