Ask most party strategists, US pollsters or pundits and they’ll tell you the 2024 presidential election could be the closest in decades, if not a century.
Given Joe Biden’s 2020 win was decided by fewer than 45,000 votes in just three battleground states, that’s quite the claim.
However, it is what the polls suggest. The contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is super tight, both nationally and in the key states.
So, how much can we trust the polls?
It’s a question many are raising after they famously got it so wrong four years ago.
The American Association for Public Opinion Research called it the biggest polling miss in 40 years, showing Mr Biden’s lead over Mr Trump in the final two weeks of the campaign twice as large as it was when the votes were counted.
In 2012, pollsters significantly under-estimated Barack Obama’s lead over Mitt Romney. But, while Mr Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton shocked many people, the error on the national polls was relatively small by comparison.
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Of course, all polls come with uncertainty, some inbuilt error, and they are only a snapshot of the current situation, not a prediction of the outcome on polling day.
Crucially, though, there is evidence they also become a more reliable predictor of the outcome the closer we get to the election. It may seem obvious, but a year out from voting the polls are on average seven points different from the final tally for each candidate. By the last week of the campaign, this falls to less than three points.
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Every day the polls tell us a little bit more about the result.
So, how should we read them?
One key thing to remember is the uncertainty around the estimated support for the candidates.
Uncertainty: ‘Margin of error’
While pollsters publish a percentage figure for each, they also report a ‘margin of error’ to indicate the amount that support might vary.
For example, if a poll puts Mr Trump on 46% with a three-percentage point margin of error, it means that his support among the voting public should lie between 43% and 49%. If the same poll has Ms Harris on 49%, then her support should lie between 46% and 52%.
All this tells us is that the contest is close and either candidate could be leading.
Similar caution is required when looking at trackers using polling averages.
You might think that averaging the polls would reduce uncertainty, since random errors should cancel out. But some pollsters are consistently more accurate than others, while some may be systematically wrong in one direction. Adding them all together can reinforce those biases.
Image: Trump in Wisconsin at the start of the month. Pic: AP
Predicting the turnout: Context matters
Who votes in an election is also critical to the outcome but predicting that is a tough ask for pollsters. Roughly a third of eligible Americans do not cast a ballot in presidential elections, and it isn’t all the same people each time.
Context matters. It can make people more or less likely to vote. For example, potential changes to abortion laws seems to have mobilised many Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections.
The policies and performance of a candidate can also change the likelihood of more partisan voters to turnout.
The Electoral College: Why state contests can be crucial
The same considerations are needed when looking at state polls and arguably they are more crucial to determining which candidate is most likely to win the election.
The outcome of a presidential race is decided state by state, by the Electoral College, and the difference between that and the national vote has been growing.
Image: Harris discusses abortion rights in Arizona in June. Pic: Reuters/Rebecca Noble
In 2000 and in 2016, the candidate with the most votes nationally lost the election because they didn’t win a combination of states that delivered the highest tally in the Electoral College.
This is why battleground state polls get so much attention and they are factored into the models of statisticians trying to forecast the outcome.
Of course, they have the same uncertainty and potential flaws as national polls. And the bad news is their recent performance hasn’t been great.
In 2016 they suggested Ms Clinton would sweep the key states needed for a comfortable win in the Electoral College. In 2020, they fared even worse.
Some states have proven particularly difficult to poll accurately. In 2016 and 2020, the biggest misses were in Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
These, especially Pennsylvania, which of the group carries the most Electoral College votes, are all potentially decisive in 2024.
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The answer is plenty if you are looking for a steer on how people feel about a certain candidate or policy.
But, if you’re trying to work out who’s ahead in the race to be president, then all you can confidently say is the contest is really close and could come down to a small number of votes in a few states.
A senior Democrat has taken to the Senate floor to speak against US President Donald Trump – with the 17-plus-hour speech still ongoing.
Cory Booker, a New Jersey senator, began speaking around 7pm (midnight in the UK) and said he intended to disrupt the “normal business of the United States Senate for as long as I am physically able”.
Referring to Mr Trump’s presidency, he said: “I rise tonight because I believe sincerely that our country is in crisis.”
As of 5pm in the UK, Mr Booker was still speaking, having spoken for more than 17 hours. He has remained standing for the entire duration, as he would lose control of the floor if he left his desk or sat down.
Image: As of 4pm, Cory Booker has held the Senate floor for more than 16 hours. Pic: Senate Television / AP
Other Democrat senators have joined Mr Booker to ask questions so he can rest his voice, including Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer.
At the start of his speech, Mr Booker said: “These are not normal times in our nation. And they should not be treated as such in the United States Senate.
“The threats to the American people and American democracy are grave and urgent, and we all must do more to stand against them.”
Overnight, he referenced Strom Thurmond of South Carolina, who filibustered for 24 hours and 18 minutes against the Civil Rights Act of 1957.
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“You think we got civil rights one day because Strom Thurmond – after filibustering for 24 hours – you think we got civil rights because he came to the floor one day and said ‘I’ve seen the light’,” he said.
“No, we got civil rights because people marched for it, sweat for it and [civil rights leader] John Lewis bled for it.”
Only Mr Thurmond and Republican Senator Ted Cruz – who spoke for 21 hours and 19 minutes against the Affordable Care Act in 2013 – have held the Senate floor for longer than Mr Booker.
Mangione has not yet been asked to enter a plea to the federal charges.
Here’s what we know about him.
Wealth, private school and Ivy League education
Mangione was born and raised in Maryland and has links to San Francisco and Hawaii.
His social media lists him as being from Towson, a well-to-do area to the north of the city of Baltimore.
He is the grandson of a wealthy property developer and philanthropist and the cousin of a current Maryland state legislator.
He attended Gilman School – a private all-boys school in Baltimore. The school’s annual fees are up to $37,690 (around £29,000) and it boasts alumni including NFL stars and former senators.
After graduating in 2016, Mangione went to the University of Pennsylvania, one of America’s elite Ivy League schools.
According to his social media, he studied computer science and launched a group named UPGRADE (UPenn Game Research and Development Environment).
A university spokesperson said he earned undergraduate and graduate degrees there.
He later co-founded his own computer game company, which focused on small, simplistic games.
Image: Mangione went to a prestigious Ivy League university. Pic: LinkedIn
‘No complaints – a great guy’
According to his LinkedIn page, Mangione moved to California in 2020 and worked for the car-buying website TrueCar. The firm’s boss said he left last year.
Mangione currently lists himself as from Honolulu on LinkedIn, with pictures on Instagram showing him on the Hawaiian island.
In the first half of 2022, he reportedly lived at Surfbreak, a co-living space aimed at remote workers in Honolulu’s Waikiki neighbourhood.
“Luigi was just widely considered to be a great guy. There were no complaints,” Josiah Ryan, a spokesperson for Surfbreak’s owner, told the AP news agency.
“There was no sign that might point to these alleged crimes they’re saying he committed.”
Mr Ryan said Mangione left to get surgery on the US mainland for chronic back pain he suffered from since childhood.
Document reveals back condition
Mangione wrote about his health issue online, saying he has spondylolisthesis – a condition where one of the bones in the spine slips forwards.
He details the severity of his “injury” as “low grade two” and goes into fitness goals, diet advice and notes about the condition.
Image: The suspect’s notes say he has back condition spondylolisthesis
Image: His X banner image shows a back X-ray
It’s unclear if the condition is linked to the motive, which police have not publicly identified, but it gives context about his health issues.
Analysis of his Goodreads profile also shows he read books including Crooked: Outwitting The Back Pain Industry and Getting On The Road To Recovery, and Why We Get Sick: The Hidden Epidemic At The Root Of Most Chronic Disease – And How To Fight It.
A banner image on his X account also features an X-ray of a lower back with screws.
Law enforcement officials told NBC News they are looking at whether the X-ray is Mangione’s or from a relative and whether it’s connected to the shooting.
‘Violence is necessary to survive’
Mangione appears to have had an active social media presence.
His X account regularly shared and reposted pieces about topics such as artificial intelligence (AI), philosophy, and the future of humanity.
His Goodreads account also gave a four-star review to Industrial Society And Its Future – by notorious US terrorist Theodore Kaczynski.
The piece, which rails against technological advancement, became known as the Unabomber Manifesto after its author began a mail bombing campaign which lasted nearly 20 years.
Three people were killed and dozens were injured before Kaczynski’s arrest in 1996.
The Goodreads review said: “When all other forms of communication fail, violence is necessary to survive. You may not like his methods, but to see things from his perspective, it’s not terrorism, it’s war and revolution.
“‘Violence never solved anything’ is a statement uttered by cowards and predators.”
Image: Luigi Mangione. Pic: Facebook
Why are some calling Mangione a ‘hero’?
A search of social media sites such as Reddit reveals a thread of people who are sympathetic to the suspect.
Highly rated comments on the site include: “Screw the McDonald’s employee that ratted him out” and “Only a matter of time till shirts with #FreeLuigi start popping up”.
To many, these are shocking comments about someone accused of carrying out a cold-blooded killing. But what’s behind them?
Many in the US pay thousands in expensive insurance premiums to cover themselves and their family, while others rely on the Medicare federal insurance programme.
Support for Mangione appears to come from resentment over this and accusations that companies go to great lengths to avoid paying for treatments in order to maximise their profits.
“He got charged with murder quicker than insurance companies deny claims”, said a comment on Reddit with nearly 7,000 likes.
One post that went viral on X before the suspect’s arrest was from Anthony Zenkus, a Columbia University professor.
He wrote: “We mourn the deaths of the 68,000 Americans who needlessly die each year so that insurance company execs like Brian Thompson can become multimillionaires.”
Image: Police shared this picture of the suspect following the shooting. Pic: NYPD
A chart shared widely on X claims to show denial rates by UnitedHealthcare exceed those of competitors, using data from consumer finance website ValuePenguin. This is consistent with publicly available data from 2023 analysed by Sky News.
Other people online appear to be angry about what they say is the disparity between the resources put into Mr Thompson’s case and how less well-off people are treated.
One comment on Reddit with 4,000 likes says: “The murdered guy in death, like in life, is still sucking up a huge undeserved and unwanted portion of resources.
“How many underprivileged people’s murders are going unsolved because NYPD and the feds are spending millions on this overpaid, rich, morally questionable millionaire’s murder.”
Arrested in McDonald’s with ‘ghost gun’
Mangione was detained in a Pennsylvania McDonald’s after a five-day search, carrying a gun that matched the one used in the shooting and a fake ID, police said.
He was arrested in Altoona, around 230 miles (370km) west of New York, after a tip-off from a McDonald’s employee who recognised him from the police appeals.
Mangione also had a fake New Jersey ID matching one used by the suspect to check into a hostel before the killing, said New York police commissioner Jessica Tisch.
He was found carrying a “handwritten document” that Ms Tisch said “spoke to both his motivation and mindset”.
Joseph Kenny, New York’s chief of detectives, said it appeared to show “some ill-will towards corporate America”.
Pennsylvania prosecutor Peter Weeks said Mangione was found with a passport and $10,000 (£7,840) – $2,000 of it in foreign currency.
‘Message’ on bullets
Brian Thompson, 50, was chief executive of UnitedHealthcare – the fourth-largest public company in the US behind Walmart, Amazon, and Apple – and was paid about $10m (£7.8m) a year.
It’s the largest provider of Medicare Advantage plans and manages insurance for employers and state and federally funded programmes.
Mr Thompson – who was married with two sons – was shot on 4 December as he was walking to a New York hotel where his company was holding an investors’ conference.
Image: CCTV showed a person shooting Mr Thompson from behind. Pic: NYPD/Reuters
As Mr Thompson walked towards the Hilton hotel on Sixth Avenue, a gunman appeared behind him from between parked cars.
He was shot in the back and calf and died from his injuries.
The words “defend”, “deny”, and “depose” were written on the cases of bullets found at the scene – similar to the title of a book that criticises health insurance companies.
Mr Thompson’s wife said he was an “incredibly loving father to our two sons” and a “loving, generous, talented man who truly lived life to the fullest”.
UnitedHealthcare called him a “highly respected colleague and friend to all who worked with him”.
A Democratic senator is delivering a marathon speech in the US Senate in protest against Donald Trump.
Cory Booker, 55, took to the floor at 7pm local time on Monday (midnight in the UK), saying he would remain there as long as he was “physically able”.
As of 5pm in the UK, Mr Booker was still going – more than 17 hours after he started.
The senator for New Jersey said his goal is to “uplift the stories of Americans who are being harmed by the Trump administration’s reckless actions, attempts to undermine our institutions, and disregard for the rule of law”.
During his speech, Mr Booker has only taken brief breaks from speaking, giving the floor instead to questions from his Democratic colleagues, according to Sky News’ US partner network, NBC News.
According to the rules of the Senate, as long as he stays at the podium Mr Booker will hold the floor – meaning he cannot leave at any point, even to go to the toilet or to eat.
So who exactly is the Democratic senator, and what is his multi-hour speech all about?
Image: Mr Booker has criticised the Trump administration during his speech. Pic: Senate Television via AP
Rising star of Democratic Party
Mr Booker was born in Washington DC and moved to northern New Jersey when he was a boy.
He is a graduate of Stanford University and Yale Law and started his career as a lawyer for charities.
Entering politics, he was considered a rising star in the Democratic Party. He was elected to serve on the city council of New Jersey’s biggest state, Newark, and then as mayor, a position he held until 2013.
He was first elected to the US Senate in 2013 during a special election held after the death of politician and businessman Frank Lautenberg.
He went on to win his first full term in 2014 and was re-elected in 2020.
2020 presidential bid
In February 2019 Mr Booker launched his bid for the US presidency from the steps of his home in Newark.
At the time, he played on his personal ties to the “low-income, inner city community” and urged for the US to return to a “common sense of purpose”.
He later dropped out of the race after struggling to raise the money required to make a bid for the White House.
Image: Senator Cory Booker. Pic: AP
Why is he speaking in the Senate?
By holding the floor in the Senate, Mr Booker is protesting against the Trump administration.
Before he began, the senator said he had the intention of “getting in some good trouble”, NBC News reported.
He read letters from constituents about how Mr Trump’s cuts were already taking a toll on their lives.
The longest Senate speeches in history
As he reached 16 hours of speaking, Mr Booker already had the sixth-longest speech in Senate history.
However, he still has a while to go to beat the all-time record for the longest individual speech.
According to the Senate’s website, this belongs to Strom Thurmond of South Carolina, who filibustered for 24 hours and 18 minutes against the Civil Rights Act of 1957.
Only one other sitting senator has spoken for longer than Mr Booker.
In 2013, Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican from Texas, held the floor for 21 hours and 19 minutes to contest Barack Obama’s healthcare reform law.
As well as speaking about health law, Mr Cruz’s speech made headlines as he read the entirety of the Dr Seuss book Green Eggs And Ham, which he said at the time was a bedtime story to his children.
He claimed the US was giving up being a global leader, citing Mr Trump’s proposals to take over Greenland and Canada while feuding with longtime allies.
He also occasionally took aim at Elon Musk, the richest person in the world, who is advising Mr Trump and leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
“In just 71 days, the president of the United States has inflicted so much harm on Americans’ safety; financial stability; the core foundations of our democracy,” Mr Booker said on the floor.
“These are not normal times in America. And they should not be treated as such in the United States Senate.”
Appearing to waver slightly on Tuesday morning, Mr Booker was accompanied by Senator Chris Murphy. In 2016, Mr Booker joined the Connecticut Democrat when he held the floor for almost 15 hours to argue for gun control legislation.
Some reports have referred to Mr Booker’s speech as a filibuster, but technically it is not.
A filibuster is a speech meant to halt the advance of a specific piece of legislation.
Mr Booker’s performance is instead a broader critique of Mr Trump’s agenda, meant to hold up any business scheduled to take place in the Senate and draw attention to what Democrats are doing to contest the president.
Democrats have been forced to use these types of opposition methods as they do not hold a majority in either congressional chamber.