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Ask most party strategists, US pollsters or pundits and they’ll tell you the 2024 presidential election could be the closest in decades, if not a century.

Given Joe Biden’s 2020 win was decided by fewer than 45,000 votes in just three battleground states, that’s quite the claim.

However, it is what the polls suggest. The contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is super tight, both nationally and in the key states.

So, how much can we trust the polls?

It’s a question many are raising after they famously got it so wrong four years ago.

The American Association for Public Opinion Research called it the biggest polling miss in 40 years, showing Mr Biden’s lead over Mr Trump in the final two weeks of the campaign twice as large as it was when the votes were counted.

In 2012, pollsters significantly under-estimated Barack Obama’s lead over Mitt Romney. But, while Mr Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton shocked many people, the error on the national polls was relatively small by comparison.

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Of course, all polls come with uncertainty, some inbuilt error, and they are only a snapshot of the current situation, not a prediction of the outcome on polling day.

Crucially, though, there is evidence they also become a more reliable predictor of the outcome the closer we get to the election. It may seem obvious, but a year out from voting the polls are on average seven points different from the final tally for each candidate. By the last week of the campaign, this falls to less than three points.

Every day the polls tell us a little bit more about the result.

So, how should we read them?

One key thing to remember is the uncertainty around the estimated support for the candidates.

Uncertainty: ‘Margin of error’

While pollsters publish a percentage figure for each, they also report a ‘margin of error’ to indicate the amount that support might vary.

For example, if a poll puts Mr Trump on 46% with a three-percentage point margin of error, it means that his support among the voting public should lie between 43% and 49%. If the same poll has Ms Harris on 49%, then her support should lie between 46% and 52%.

All this tells us is that the contest is close and either candidate could be leading.

Similar caution is required when looking at trackers using polling averages.

You might think that averaging the polls would reduce uncertainty, since random errors should cancel out. But some pollsters are consistently more accurate than others, while some may be systematically wrong in one direction. Adding them all together can reinforce those biases.

Read more on the election:
What exactly happens on the night of the US election?

How does Donald Trump keep his support so strong?

Trump in Wisconsin at the start of the month. Pic: AP
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Trump in Wisconsin at the start of the month. Pic: AP

Predicting the turnout: Context matters

Who votes in an election is also critical to the outcome but predicting that is a tough ask for pollsters. Roughly a third of eligible Americans do not cast a ballot in presidential elections, and it isn’t all the same people each time.

Context matters. It can make people more or less likely to vote. For example, potential changes to abortion laws seems to have mobilised many Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections.

The policies and performance of a candidate can also change the likelihood of more partisan voters to turnout.

The Electoral College: Why state contests can be crucial

The same considerations are needed when looking at state polls and arguably they are more crucial to determining which candidate is most likely to win the election.

The outcome of a presidential race is decided state by state, by the Electoral College, and the difference between that and the national vote has been growing.

Read more: What is the Electoral College?

6.	U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris discusses reproductive rights on the second anniversary of Roe v. Wade being overturned, in Phoenix, Arizona, U.S. June 24, 2024.  REUTERS/Rebecca Noble
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Harris discusses abortion rights in Arizona in June. Pic: Reuters/Rebecca Noble

In 2000 and in 2016, the candidate with the most votes nationally lost the election because they didn’t win a combination of states that delivered the highest tally in the Electoral College.

This is why battleground state polls get so much attention and they are factored into the models of statisticians trying to forecast the outcome.

Of course, they have the same uncertainty and potential flaws as national polls. And the bad news is their recent performance hasn’t been great.

In 2016 they suggested Ms Clinton would sweep the key states needed for a comfortable win in the Electoral College. In 2020, they fared even worse.

Some states have proven particularly difficult to poll accurately. In 2016 and 2020, the biggest misses were in Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

These, especially Pennsylvania, which of the group carries the most Electoral College votes, are all potentially decisive in 2024.

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So, what can the polls tell us?

The answer is plenty if you are looking for a steer on how people feel about a certain candidate or policy.

But, if you’re trying to work out who’s ahead in the race to be president, then all you can confidently say is the contest is really close and could come down to a small number of votes in a few states.

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Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs denied bail after being convicted over prostitution-related offences

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Sean 'Diddy' Combs denied bail after being convicted over prostitution-related offences

Sean “Diddy” Combs has been found guilty of transportation for prostitution following a landmark trial in New York – but cleared of more serious charges of sex trafficking and racketeering conspiracy.

The hip-hop mogul was accused by prosecutors of abusing and coercing three alleged victims, including his former long-term partner, singer and model Cassie Ventura, and other crimes including kidnapping, arson and blackmail.

Jurors decided not all the allegations were proven – but Combs still faces several years in prison after being convicted of transporting people across the US, including Cassie and another former girlfriend “Jane”, and paying male escorts to engage in sexual encounters.

However, with the not guilty verdict on three other more serious charges – racketeering conspiracy and two of sex trafficking – the 55-year-old has avoided a maximum possible sentence of life behind bars.

Despite a request by his defence team, he was denied bail ahead of sentencing – which has been scheduled for Friday 3 October.

Sean "Diddy" Combs reacts after verdicts are read of the five counts against him, during Combs' sex trafficking trial in New York City, New
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Combs appeared upbeat in court as the verdict was announced. Pic: Jane Rosenberg/ Reuters

Marc Agnifilo, part of Diddy’s defence team, described the ruling as “a victory of all victories”.

Outside the courthouse, he said the jury “got the situation right, or certainly right enough”.

Another of his lawyers, Nicole Westmoreland, said: “He actually battled for his freedom, for his innocence, and he did it.

“And, you know, a lot of times, people are too afraid to do it. Today is a major win to show what the system can do.”

The mixed result from the jury came not long into their third day of deliberations. In the courtroom in Manhattan, there were cheers from Combs’s family – and the rapper himself held his hands up in a prayer motion, looking at the jury, and hugged his defence lawyer Teny Geragos.

His mood seemed very different to just a day earlier – when he learned the jury had reached a verdict on four of the five charges, but were split on the racketeering charge.

After deliberating for longer on Wednesday, they came to a unanimous decision.

As the verdict sunk in, Combs appeared overwhelmed, kneeling at his chair and bowing his head in prayer once again.

“I’ll be home soon,” he said as he faced his family members. “I love you, Mum.”

Sean "Diddy" Combs reacts after verdicts are read of the five counts against him, during Combs' sex trafficking trial in New York City, New
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Combs later seemed to become overwhelmed with relief. Pic: Jane Rosenberg/ Reuters

The application for bail

Combs’s defence team argued that as he had been cleared of the most serious charges, he should be bailed ahead of sentencing.

His lawyer Marc Agnifilo said he had been a model prisoner and added: “He’s not going to flee. He’s been given his life back.”

But prosecutor Maurene Comey argued Combs had a history of violence, which Judge Arub Subramanian agreed with. “At trial, the defence conceded the defendant’s violence in his personal relationships,” he said.

After being denied bail, Combs attempted get the judge’s attention – but after consulting with Mr Agnifilo, he did not speak.

Sean "Diddy" Combs watches as his former girlfriend Casandra "Cassie" Ventura is sworn in as a prosecution witness before U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian at Combs' sex trafficking trial in New York City, New York, U.S., May 13, 2025 in this courtroom sketch. REUTERS/Jane
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Casandra ‘Cassie’ was heavily pregnant when she gave evidence at the start of the trial. Pic: Jane Rosenberg/ Reuters

Cassie ‘paved the way’

Reacting to the verdict, Cassie’s lawyer Douglas H Wigdor said that although jurors did not find Combs guilty of sex-trafficking Cassie, she had “paved the way” for the other guilty verdicts.

“By coming forward with her experience, Cassie has left an indelible mark on both the entertainment industry and the fight for justice,” he said.

“We must repeat – with no reservation – that we believe and support our client, who showed exemplary courage throughout this trial.”

Cassie, who testified heavily pregnant just three weeks before giving birth, displayed “unquestionable strength”, he added, and “brought attention to the realities of powerful men in our orbit”.

Videos of “freak off” sex sessions with male escorts were shown to jurors only during the seven-week trial, with the footage kept private from members of the public and media in court.

Read more:
How the trial unfolded
The rise and fall of Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs

Sean "Diddy" Combs listens as Assistant U.S. Attorney Meredith Foster questions Ananya Sankar during his sex trafficking trial
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Pic: Reuters/ Jane Rosenberg

Former employees, along with escorts, hotel staff and police officers were among those to give evidence.

Cassie and Jane, who used a pseudonym, also testified. They told the court they were coerced into drug-fuelled “freak offs” – which were also referred to as “hotel nights” or “wild king nights” – with male escorts, and abused throughout their relationships.

Combs’s defence team presented a very different picture to show that sexual acts, including freak offs, were consensual.

They conceded the music star could be violent, had a bad temper and used drugs. He also had multiple relationships at the same time. But crucially, they said, while he was “not proud” of some of his behaviour, none of it made him guilty of the charges against him.

After hearing evidence of flights and travel for escorts and Cassie and Jane, paid for by Combs, as well as hotel bookings across the US and the Caribbean, jurors found him guilty of the transportation to engage in prostitution charges. However, they did not find that the allegations against the rapper amounted to sex trafficking or racketeering.

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CCTV footage shows Diddy ‘attacking’ Cassie in hotel

The Cassie hotel tape

Combs, known variously as Puff Daddy, P Diddy, and Diddy over the years, was once one of the most influential figures in hip-hop – famous as a producer, founder of Bad Boy Records and manager of the late Notorious BIG in the 1990s, as well as a rapper in his own right.

As an artist, he won three Grammys during his career, and had hits including I’ll Be Missing You, Come With Me, and Bad Boy For Life.

In September 2023, he received the “global icon” award from MTV and was given the key to New York City at a ceremony in Times Square, just a few miles away from the streets in Harlem where he spent his first years.

Allegations first came to prominence in November 2023, when Cassie filed a bombshell lawsuit accusing him of coercing her into unwanted sex sessions, as well as blackmail and several incidences of violence.

The suit was settled in 24 hours – for $20m, it emerged during the trial – but months later CNN aired hotel security footage showing Combs punching and kicking Cassie and throwing her to the floor in 2016.

He apologised after the video aired, saying: “I was disgusted when I did it.”

Footage from the hotel incident was shown during the trial.

Following the verdict, the rapper now awaits sentencing. He also still faces several civil lawsuits, most of which were filed in the wake of his arrest in September 2024.

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Bryan Kohberger pleads guilty to murdering four University of Idaho students in 2022

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Bryan Kohberger pleads guilty to murdering four University of Idaho students in 2022

A man has pleaded guilty to murdering four University of Idaho students in November 2022.

Bryan Kohberger, a 30-year-old former criminal justice student, was arrested at his parents’ home in Pennsylvania weeks after the killings.

He was accused of sneaking into the rented home in Moscow, Idaho, which is not far from the university campus, and attacking Ethan Chapin, Xana Kernodle, Madison Mogen and Kaylee Goncalves.

Kohberger previously pleaded not guilty to charges of murder and burglary.

It comes after he agreed to a plea deal, just weeks before his trial was set to begin, in a bid to avoid the death penalty.

Read more:
Surviving Idaho student ‘saw masked man in black clothing’
Idaho suspect ‘warned after making creepy comments’

Bryan Kohberger during a hearing in Latah County District Court in Moscow, Idaho
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Bryan Kohberger during a hearing in Latah County District Court in Moscow, Idaho. Pic: Reuters

Kaylee Goncalves, Maddie Mogen and Xana Kernodle, and Xana's boyfriend Ethan Chapin
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Kaylee Goncalves, Maddie Mogen and Xana Kernodle, and Xana’s boyfriend Ethan Chapin

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Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ has sparked ugly debate – so why is it so controversial?

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Donald Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' has sparked ugly debate - so why is it so controversial?

It is certainly big – 940 pages long – but on the question of beauty, Congress is divided.

Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” has sparked ugly debate – both for its ambitious scope and for the political manoeuvring that’s gone on around it.

Elon Musk branded it “political suicide” for Republicans and threatened to fund challenges against those who back it in next year’s midterm elections.

But the president hit back, suggesting he would consider cutting Musk’s lucrative government contracts or even deporting him back to South Africa.

The “big, beautiful bill”, or HR 1 to give the proposed legislation its proper title, is Mr Trump’s signature spending and tax policy.

It extends tax cuts he secured in 2017 and bankrolls his second-term agenda in the White House.

File pic: Reuters
Image:
File pic: Reuters

Here is a summary of the key points:

Permanent tax cuts: Extending relief from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

Small business support: Doubling the small business expensing limit to $2.5m (£1.8m) to help businesses expand and hire staff

Child tax credit: Expanding the child tax credit and making it permanent, benefiting 40 million families

Making housing affordable: Expanding the low-income housing tax credit to kickstart construction of affordable homes

Defence and border security: Allocating $170bn (£123bn) for border security alone, including $46bn (£33bn) for completing the border wall

Made-in-America incentives: Providing tax breaks and incentives for domestic manufacturing to promote US industry

Healthcare and social welfare: Implementing restrictions on Medicaid, which provides healthcare for millions of Americans, and reducing funding for certain healthcare and nutrition programmes.

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Clash over ‘monster’ debt bill

Musk, Mr Trump’s former ally and the man who established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), claimed the bill “raises the debt ceiling by $5trn, the biggest increase in history.”

“DOGE is the monster that might have to go back and eat Elon,” was President Trump’s response.

The national debt currently stands at $37trn (£27trn) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill could add $2.4trn (£1.7trn) to that over the next decade.

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Trump threatens to ‘put DOGE’ on Musk

Bill splits Republican ranks

Republican Senator Thom Tillis voted against the bill and, following criticism from the president, announced he would not seek re-election in North Carolina.

He said he couldn’t support it due to his concerns about the impact cuts to Medicaid would have on people in his state.

Democrats in the Senate forced a full reading of all 940 pages and then a vote-a-rama, a series of marathon voting sessions.

Read more from Sky News:
Elon’s dad on the Musk-Trump bust-up
How Musk’s cost-cutting mission fell flat

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In the House of Representatives, it passed by a single vote, 215-214. In the Senate, Vice President JD Vance, had to cast the deciding vote to break a tie (50-50).

Legislatively, the progress of the bill has been a case study in the complexities of American law-making.

Strategically, it represents a mammoth effort to consolidate the president’s policy agenda and secure his legacy.

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