Can we trust the polls for the US election?

Published

5 months ago

October 5, 2024

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Ask most party strategists, US pollsters or pundits and they’ll tell you the 2024 presidential election could be the closest in decades, if not a century.

Given Joe Biden’s 2020 win was decided by fewer than 45,000 votes in just three battleground states, that’s quite the claim.

However, it is what the polls suggest. The contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is super tight, both nationally and in the key states.

So, how much can we trust the polls?

It’s a question many are raising after they famously got it so wrong four years ago.

The American Association for Public Opinion Research called it the biggest polling miss in 40 years, showing Mr Biden’s lead over Mr Trump in the final two weeks of the campaign twice as large as it was when the votes were counted.

In 2012, pollsters significantly under-estimated Barack Obama’s lead over Mitt Romney. But, while Mr Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton shocked many people, the error on the national polls was relatively small by comparison.

Of course, all polls come with uncertainty, some inbuilt error, and they are only a snapshot of the current situation, not a prediction of the outcome on polling day.

Crucially, though, there is evidence they also become a more reliable predictor of the outcome the closer we get to the election. It may seem obvious, but a year out from voting the polls are on average seven points different from the final tally for each candidate. By the last week of the campaign, this falls to less than three points.

Every day the polls tell us a little bit more about the result.

So, how should we read them?

One key thing to remember is the uncertainty around the estimated support for the candidates.

Uncertainty: ‘Margin of error’

While pollsters publish a percentage figure for each, they also report a ‘margin of error’ to indicate the amount that support might vary.

For example, if a poll puts Mr Trump on 46% with a three-percentage point margin of error, it means that his support among the voting public should lie between 43% and 49%. If the same poll has Ms Harris on 49%, then her support should lie between 46% and 52%.

All this tells us is that the contest is close and either candidate could be leading.

Similar caution is required when looking at trackers using polling averages.

You might think that averaging the polls would reduce uncertainty, since random errors should cancel out. But some pollsters are consistently more accurate than others, while some may be systematically wrong in one direction. Adding them all together can reinforce those biases.

Predicting the turnout: Context matters

Who votes in an election is also critical to the outcome but predicting that is a tough ask for pollsters. Roughly a third of eligible Americans do not cast a ballot in presidential elections, and it isn’t all the same people each time.

Context matters. It can make people more or less likely to vote. For example, potential changes to abortion laws seems to have mobilised many Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections.

The policies and performance of a candidate can also change the likelihood of more partisan voters to turnout.

The Electoral College: Why state contests can be crucial

The same considerations are needed when looking at state polls and arguably they are more crucial to determining which candidate is most likely to win the election.

The outcome of a presidential race is decided state by state, by the Electoral College, and the difference between that and the national vote has been growing.

Read more: What is the Electoral College?

In 2000 and in 2016, the candidate with the most votes nationally lost the election because they didn’t win a combination of states that delivered the highest tally in the Electoral College.

This is why battleground state polls get so much attention and they are factored into the models of statisticians trying to forecast the outcome.

Of course, they have the same uncertainty and potential flaws as national polls. And the bad news is their recent performance hasn’t been great.

In 2016 they suggested Ms Clinton would sweep the key states needed for a comfortable win in the Electoral College. In 2020, they fared even worse.

Some states have proven particularly difficult to poll accurately. In 2016 and 2020, the biggest misses were in Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

These, especially Pennsylvania, which of the group carries the most Electoral College votes, are all potentially decisive in 2024.

So, what can the polls tell us?

The answer is plenty if you are looking for a steer on how people feel about a certain candidate or policy.

But, if you’re trying to work out who’s ahead in the race to be president, then all you can confidently say is the contest is really close and could come down to a small number of votes in a few states.

US

Trump pauses tariffs on most goods from Mexico and some from Canada

Published

3 hours ago

March 7, 2025

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Trump pauses tariffs on most goods from Mexico and some from Canada

Donald Trump has announced that most goods imported from Mexico and some from Canada are to be exempt from his trade tariff regime for at least four weeks, just days after the charges were imposed.

“We are working hard, together, on the border, both in terms of stopping illegal aliens from entering the United States and, likewise, stopping fentanyl,” the president posted on his Truth Social platform after first relaxing his sanctions against Mexico.

He often gives both issues as reasons for the tariffs.

The latest climbdown came after he surprised financial markets 24 hours earlier by waiving tariffs against carmakers following pleas from motor industry bosses.

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The White House said that 62% of Canadian imports would still be subject to 25% tariffs because they were not compliant with a trade deal – USMCA (US Mexico and Canada) – struck in 2020.

News that Canadian goods which met the USMCA criteria were being spared tariffs until 2 April followed hours after the same concession was agreed between Mr Trump and his Mexican counterpart.

A tariff of 10% was to remain on potash – a fertiliser used by farmers – and Mr Trump added that the auto tariffs would definitely return next month.

The White House revealed some details. Parts due to flow into the US from Mexico and Canada as part of the manufacturing supply chain would not qualify for tariffs so long as they complied with the USMCA deal.

‘Rules of origin’ guidelines under the agreement allow goods to move between the three countries tariff-free if they qualify with a designation that they were made in North America.

US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick told Sky’s US partner network CNBC that, taken together, more than half of usual cross border trade volumes would be exempt under the expanded concessions.

He too signalled there were signs of progress in the dispute with America’s closest trading partners, saying each had worked hard to make progress in tackling imports of Fentanyl – blamed for high crime and deaths in US communities.

But Mr Lutnick explained that, as things stand, the reprieve would only last until 2 April when the Trump administration plans to impose reciprocal tariffs – on top of the 25% charges that came into force on Tuesday.

At the same time, Mr Trump is under intense pressure to relax his tariff regime permanently amid a backlash from US firms and financial market investors who fear it is self defeating.

A closely-watched forecast has even suggested that the threats of a trade war were enough to push the US economy into recession before Mr Trump took office.

The dollar has sunk in value and US government borrowing costs have risen on the back of the turmoil.

US stock markets were also feeling the pressure again with the tech-heavy Nasdaq on course to fall by more than 3% on the day.

It is widely expected that the European Union will be next to face tariffs – possibly from 2 April – after Mr Trump threatened action “very soon” just last week.

Commenting on the threat to the eurozone from such a move, the president of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde said on Thursday: “Just the threat of those tariff increases and potential retaliations are putting a brake on – on investment, on consumption decisions, on employment, hiring, all the rest of it.”

While Mr Trump has not issued a specific threat against the UK, her counterpart at the Bank of England Andrew Bailey told a committee of MPs on Wednesday that the US should work “multi-laterally” rather than bilaterally to resolve its disputes.

US

US ‘destroying’ international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia ‘halfway’, Ukraine’s UK ambassador warns

Published

3 hours ago

March 7, 2025

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US 'destroying' international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia 'halfway', Ukraine's UK ambassador warns

The United States is “finally destroying” the international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia “halfway”, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK has warned.

Valerii Zaluzhnyi said Washington’s recent actions in relation to Moscow could lead to the collapse of NATO – with Europe becoming Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s next target.

“The failure to qualify actions of Russia as an aggression is a huge challenge for the entire world and Europe, in particular,” he told a conference at the Chatham House think tank.

Ukraine latest: ‘Watershed moment’ as Kremlin blasts Macron

“We see that it is not just the axis of evil and Russia trying to revise the world order, but the US is finally destroying this order.”

Mr Zaluzhnyi, who took over as Kyiv’s ambassador to London in 2024 following three years as commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, also warned that the White House had “questioned the unity of the whole Western world” – suggesting NATO could cease to exist as a result.

It comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy scrambles to repair relations with US President Donald Trump following a dramatic row between the two men in the Oval Office last week.

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Mr Trump signalled on Tuesday that tensions could be easing, telling Congress he had received a letter from Mr Zelenskyy saying he was ready to sign a peace deal “at any time”.

But on the same day, the US president ordered a sudden freeze on shipments of US military aid to Ukraine, and Washington has since paused intelligence sharing with Kyiv and halted cyber operations against Russia.

Mr Zaluzhnyi said the pause in cyber operations and an earlier decision by the US to oppose a UN resolution condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine were “a huge challenge for the entire world”.

He added that talks between the US and Russia – “headed by a war criminal” – showed the White House “makes steps towards the Kremlin, trying to meet them halfway”, warning Moscow’s next target “could be Europe”.

US

Lesotho minister calls Trump ‘insulting’ for saying nobody has heard of country

Published

3 hours ago

March 7, 2025

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Lesotho minister calls Trump 'insulting' for saying nobody has heard of country

Lesotho’s foreign minister has said it is “insulting” for Donald Trump to say nobody has heard of the country.

In his address to the US Congress on Tuesday, the US president mentioned Lesotho while listing some of the foreign spending he had cut as “appalling waste”.

“Eight million dollars to promote LGBTQI+ in the African nation of Lesotho, which nobody has ever heard of,” Mr Trump said, drawing laughs in the Congress.

The president also appeared to struggle to pronounce the country’s name.

Lesotho’s foreign minister, Lejone Mpotjoane, said: “I’m really shocked that my country can be referred to like that by the head of state.

“Lesotho is such a significant and unique country in the whole world. I would be happy to invite the president, as well as the rest of the world, to come to Lesotho,” Mr Mpotjoane told the Reuters news agency.

He later told The Associated Press: “It is surprising and disappointing that he claimed no one knows Lesotho, especially given that the US has an embassy here.

“He should speak for himself and not generalise.”

The Trump administration has cut billions of dollars in foreign aid worldwide as part of the president’s America First policy.

Lesotho, which has a population of around 2.3 million people, has received American assistance for nearly 20 years through USAID, which gave it more than $44m (£34.1m) last year.

Mr Mpotjoane said while civil society organisations funded by the US embassy in Lesotho did work to support the LGBT+ community, the US also provided important funding to the country’s health and agriculture sectors.

The cuts have forced Lesotho’s HIV programme to lay off at least 1,500 health workers – about 7% of the country’s health staff – in what the government has described as a severe blow.

US aid has been credited with helping Lesotho provide life-saving treatment to more than 200,000 people living with HIV.

Mr Mpotjoane said the government was looking at how to become more self-sufficient.

“The decision by the president to cut the aid… it is [his] prerogative to do that. We have to accept that. But to refer to my country like that, it is quite unfortunate.”

This wasn’t the first time Mr Trump has reportedly been disparaging about Africa. During his first term, it was reported that he referred to African nations, as well as Haiti and El Salvador, as “shithole countries” – though Mr Trump denied this.

Elon Musk, a key adviser to Mr Trump and proponent of the foreign aid cuts in his role as head of the new department of government efficiency, has been trying to do business in Lesotho in recent months.

Mr Musk’s Starlink internet satellite service, a subsidiary of SpaceX, has applied for a license to operate in Lesotho. It is one of several African countries where the company is bidding to win contracts.

The Lesotho Communications Authority said last month it recently received Starlink’s bid for a 10-year license.

Prince Harry also co-founded the charity Sentebale to support children who live in extreme poverty or suffer from HIV/AIDS in Lesotho.