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Some Americans are already voting for their next president and, if polls are to be believed, the economy and immigration are at the forefront of many of their minds.

Voters consistently favour Donald Trump over Kamala Harris as the best person to manage both, but recently Harris has narrowed the gap.

The economy

In a Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) poll from early September, Trump held a 15-point lead on the economy. However, more recent polling has shown a narrower single-digit lead.

For many people, though, the economy comes down to one simple factor: purchasing power – particularly, what they can afford in their day-to-day lives. Essentially, the difference between what they earn and the rate at which prices are increasing, or inflation.

Real-terms wages were higher under Trump, with average earnings consistently outpacing inflation.

This was especially true during the pandemic, as average earnings were boosted by the departure of lower-paid employees from the workforce.

Overall, during his presidency, real wages increased by 7%.

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Since Joe Biden and Harris have been running the economy, real wage growth hasn’t been as strong.

By mid-2022, it had fallen nearly 4% below where it had been at the start of their term.

Much of this was affected by the post-COVID recovery and external factors driving inflation.

There are signs that the economy is now improving for ordinary Americans, with real wage growth only 1% lower than when Biden and Harris took office.

But what is important to the candidates’ electoral success is whether voters are noticing the difference.

And it’s not yet clear that they are.

“Economists are saying ‘Unemployment has fallen, the economy’s growing stronger, so is wage growth’, which is true. But some people feel worse off now,” says Shaun Bowler, a professor of political science at the University of California Riverside.

Petrol (or ‘gas’ as it’s called in the US) prices are a good example.

In America, more than nine in 10 households own at least one vehicle.

During Trump’s presidency, petrol prices remained relatively low, staying under $3 per gallon and even dipping below $2 during the pandemic.

By contrast, under Biden and Harris, petrol prices rose to $3.06 per gallon by June 2021, hitting nearly $5 a year later.

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Much of this was driven by factors outside of their control, including the global energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This trend wasn’t unique to the US. In the UK, the cost of unleaded petrol rose by two-fifths from £1.30 per litre in June 2021 to £1.84 a year later.

“The Trump administration inherited a good economy from (Barack) Obama, one with low unemployment and inflation and that persisted for a couple of years,” says Professor Bowler.

“Then COVID upset everything, followed by the big supply shock of the war in Ukraine which gives us high inflation,” he adds.

While petrol prices have since dropped to $3.39 per gallon in the US, they remain higher than at any point during Trump’s term.

It’s these cost of living issues which have encouraged the Harris campaign to talk about what she would do as president to help the middle class, rather than spend too long trying to defend Biden’s economic record.

Immigration

One part of Biden’s record that Harris can’t escape is immigration, not least because the president tasked her with tackling the root causes of migration from Central American countries.

Trump has called Harris Biden’s “border tsar” and sought to blame her for problems at the US-Mexico border, and immigration policy overall.

She has been famously criticised by Trump for not visiting the border much during the last four years.

The vice president made her way there last week for a campaign rally. She was selling a message of zero tolerance on illegal immigration and highlighting an improvement in the data.

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But polls have consistently suggested that voters have little confidence in her record on the issue and still favour Trump as the candidate to manage it. Why?

Trump’s rhetoric has been more hardline, marked by the promise of a border wall which was never built during his victorious 2016 campaign for the presidency.

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One of the things Trump did introduce was Title 42 – a public health order during the pandemic – which enabled authorities to swiftly expel migrants without offering them the chance to seek asylum.

This led to an initial drop in people trying to cross the border between the official points of entry, but implementation was challenging.

Some countries were more able than others to accept people removed under Title 42. This meant the policy didn’t have as much impact as intended.

Nevertheless, these illegal crossings were relatively low, compared to when they rose during Harris’s first years in post.

This led to her having a bad reputation for handling the border.

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But in recent months, there’s been a sudden and significant fall in people crossing between points of entry, most likely driven by a policy change.

In June, Biden and Harris introduced a controversial asylum ban allowing the deportation or turning back of migrants if illegal crossings exceed 2,500 per day for a week.

In the first month alone, illegal crossings dropped from 83,536 to 56,399.

Migrants..seeking asylum rest as they wait to be processed after crossing the border Wednesday, June 5, 2024, in San Diego, Calif. President Joe Biden has unveiled plans to enact immediate significant restrictions on migrants seeking asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border as the White House tries to neutralize immigration as a political liability ahead of the November elections. (AP Photo/Eugene Garcia)
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Migrants wait to be processed after crossing the border on 5 June, the day Biden’s asylum ban took effect. Pic: AP/Eugene Garcia

However, it’s difficult to predict whether this will continue.

“After any sort of big policy change, we often see a drop in migrant encounters. It becomes this wait-and-see period and previously we’ve seen numbers go back up,” says Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, associate policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute.

In contrast, the number of undocumented migrants attempting to enter the US through official crossing points remains high.

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This shift is largely due to the expanded use of an app called CBP One which in May 2023 became the only way migrants could schedule appointments for asylum claims at the border.

As with the economy, though, Harris has been narrowing the gap in the polls on immigration since taking over at the top of the Democratic ticket from Biden.

But this is still an issue Trump leads on with most voters.

Abortion rights

While Harris is making some progress in improving her standing versus Trump on the fundamental issues of the economy and immigration, she’s also trying to raise the profile of abortion as an election vote winner.

Abortion is one of the most divisive issues in the US and Harris has made it a cornerstone of her campaign.

6.	U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris discusses reproductive rights on the second anniversary of Roe v. Wade being overturned, in Phoenix, Arizona, U.S. June 24, 2024.  REUTERS/Rebecca Noble
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Harris discusses reproductive rights on the second anniversary of Roe v Wade being overturned in Phoenix, Arizona. Pic: Reuters/Rebecca Noble

She has polled well on the issue, with a strong 19-point lead in a recent survey from KFF, and there’s evidence she is mobilising support among women.

“It’s been a winning issue for Democrats since the overturn of Roe, it is going to be playing out in various states on the ballot in November, and the Republicans basically don’t have a coherent line,” says Dr Richard Johnson, senior lecturer in US politics and policy at Queen Mary, University of London.

Trump’s appointment of judges that secured the conservative majority in the Supreme Court during his presidency helped in overturning Roe v Wade in 2022, allowing states to decide their own abortion laws.

Since then, several states have effectively banned most abortions, forcing women to travel across state lines for care.

From 2019 to 2023, the number of women who sought an abortion in a different state grew by 133% from more than 73,000 to over 170,000.

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This November changes to abortion laws are on the ballot in 10 states and at least two of these, Arizona and Nevada, are key battleground contests.

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As the race nears its final stretch, Trump’s reputation for handling key issues like the economy and immigration remains strong in the polls, but Harris has worked hard to close those gaps, while also boosting the profile of abortion as a pivotal issue.

The question now is whether voters will trust Trump’s version of his past performance or be swayed by Harris’s vision for the future.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Trump calls for reopening of Alcatraz to house ‘most ruthless and violent offenders’

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Trump calls for reopening of Alcatraz to house 'most ruthless and violent offenders'

US President Donald Trump has called for the reopening of notorious prison Alcatraz.

In a post on his social media site Truth Social, Mr Trump said America had been “plagued by vicious, violent, and repeat criminal offenders”.

He added that when the United States was “a more serious nation” it “did not hesitate to lock up the most dangerous criminals”.

“That is why, today, I am directing the Bureau of Prisons, together with the Department of Justice, FBI, and Homeland Security, to reopen a substantially enlarged and rebuilt Alcatraz, to house America’s most ruthless and violent offenders,” he wrote.

Mr Trump said the reopening of the San Francisco prison would “serve as a symbol of law, order, and justice”.

The US president’s latest policy announcement comes after he fired national security adviser Mike Waltz last week in the first major change to his administration.

US President Donald Trump. Pic: AP
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US President Donald Trump speaking to reporters on Sunday. Pic: AP

Alcatraz was infamously inescapable and in the 29 years it was open, 36 men attempted 14 separate escapes, according to the FBI.

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Nearly all of them were caught or did not survive the attempt at escaping.

The prison housed some of America’s most notorious criminals, including Al Capone and George Kelly.

It has also been the subject of a number of films, including The Rock, starring Sean Connery and Nicolas Cage.

Alcatraz Island. File pic: AP
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Alcatraz Island. File pic: AP

Alcatraz Island, which is surrounded by strong ocean currents and cold Pacific waters, is now a major tourist site, operated by the National Park Service.

The prison’s closure in 1963 was attributed to crumbling infrastructure and high repair costs.

A spokesperson for the Bureau of Prisons said it would “comply with all presidential orders”.

The Bureau of Prisons currently has 16 high-security prisons, including its maximum-security facility in Florence, Colorado, and a facility in Terre Haute, Indiana, which is home to the federal death chamber.

The United States’ federal law enforcement agency has been the subject of increased scrutiny in recent years after Jeffrey Epstein‘s suicide at a federal jail in New York City in 2019.

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Woman missing for more than 60 years found ‘alive and well’

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Woman missing for more than 60 years found 'alive and well'

A woman in the US who has been missing since 1962 has been found “alive and well”, authorities have said.

Audrey Backeberg left her home in Reedsburg, Wisconsin, in July that year when she was 20 years old, Sauk County Sheriff’s Office said.

Investigators pursued numerous leads over the years but the case eventually went cold.

However, during a review of cold cases earlier this year, a detective reassessed all the case files and evidence, and re-interviewed several witnesses – and found Ms Backeberg.

The 82-year-old was “alive and well” – living outside of the state of Wisconsin, the sheriff’s office said.

Ms Backeberg was married and had two children when she disappeared on 7 July 1962, according to the Wisconsin Missing Persons Advocacy organisation.

She left her home to pick up her salary but never returned, causing her husband to ask family members where she was.

Shortly afterwards their 14-year-old babysitter claimed she and Ms Backeberg had hitchhiked to Wisconsin’s capital city Madison and then caught a bus to Indianapolis, Indiana.

The teenager said when she arrived she became nervous and wanted to go home, while Ms Backeberg refused to return and was last seen walking near a bus stop.

Ms Backeberg’s marriage was troubled and there were allegations of abuse, the Wisconsin Missing Persons Advocacy organisation said, with a criminal complaint having been filed days before she went missing.

Her relatives insisted she would never abandon her children, the organisation added, and her husband passed a polygraph test and maintained his innocence.

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‘We talked for 45 minutes’ – detective

Detective Isaac Hanson, who found Ms Backeberg, said her sister’s Ancestry.com account was vital in helping him locate her address.

“That was pretty key in locating death records, census reports, all kinds of data,” he told local news station WISN.

“So I called the local sheriff’s department, said, ‘Hey, there’s this lady living at this address. Do you guys have somebody, you can just go pop in?’

“Ten minutes later, she called me, and we talked for 45 minutes.”

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‘She sounded happy’

Mr Hanson said Ms Backeberg may have left home due to marital issues, but it was unclear why she had stayed away for so long.

He said he had promised to keep their conversation private.

“I think she just was removed and, you know, moved on from things and kind of did her own thing and led her life,” he said.

“She sounded happy. Confident in her decision. No regrets.”

Sauk County Sheriff’s Office said Ms Backeberg made the choice to leave and her disappearance “was not the result of any criminal activity or foul play”.

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Trump posts AI image of himself as pope on Truth Social

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Trump posts AI image of himself as pope on Truth Social

Donald Trump has posted an AI-generated image of himself dressed in papal regalia on his Truth Social platform – just 11 days after the death of Pope Francis.

Uploaded onto his account early on Saturday morning, it shows the US president with a large gold cross on a chain around his neck.

From there, it was published, without comment or explanation, on the White House X and Instagram accounts and, though it drew fierce criticism, it was liked more than 100,000 times.

It comes just a few days after the world leader joked that he’d like to be the pontiff.

Last week, he was asked by reporters on the White House lawn who he would like to succeed Francis and he replied: “I’d like to be Pope. That would be my number one choice.”

He went on to say that he did not have a preference, but there was a cardinal in New York who was “very good”.

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‘I’d like to be pope’

Mr Trump was quickly accused of mocking Pope Francis’s death, but, by noon, UK time, the post had been liked more than 58,000 times on Instagram.

User comments, however, were mostly negative, with one saying that the image “isn’t funny. It’s not satire. And it’s not harmless”.

Another simply called it “disgusting”, while other reactions included “disturbing”, “disrespectful” and “offensive”.

On X, where the picture was liked more than 78,000 times, a user commented that Mr Trump was “making a mockery of the pious”, while another judged it “not a wise decision”.

The conclave to select a new pontiff will begin on 7 May after the death of Francis, the leader of the Roman Catholic Church.

The Argentinian, who became pope in 2013, died on Easter Monday at the age of 88 due to a stroke and heart failure.

Last weekend, the president was criticised for wearing a non-traditional blue suit for Francis’s Vatican funeral and chewing gum during the ceremony.

However, his meeting in St Peter’s Basilica with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy before the outdoor mass got under way was dubbed “Pope Francis’s miracle” by members of the clergy.

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, right, and President Donald Trump, talk as they attend the funeral of Pope Francis in Vatican, Saturday, April 26, 2025.(Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)
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Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy met in St Peter’s Basilica. Pic: Ukrainian Presidential Press Office

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Mr Trump’s own religious views have long been a matter of speculation.

He was raised as a Presbyterian and publicly identified with it for most of his adult life, before, in October 2020, he renounced it and said he now considered himself a non-denominational Christian.

Many have questioned the depth of his faith, but that hasn’t stopped him appealing to conservative Christians and the Christian right, particularly evangelicals, some of whom have helped him get elected twice.

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Earlier this year, Mr Trump shared a bizarre AI-generated video on his Truth Social platform showcasing what appeared to be a vision of Gaza under his proposed plan.

The footage showed the area transformed into a Middle Eastern paradise with exotic beaches, Dubai-style skyscrapers, luxury yachts and people partying – and featured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Elon Musk.

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