Trump v Harris: Perception, reality and how their records in office compare
Some Americans are already voting for their next president and, if polls are to be believed, the economy and immigration are at the forefront of many of their minds.
Voters consistently favour Donald Trump over Kamala Harris as the best person to manage both, but recently Harris has narrowed the gap.
The economy
In a Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) poll from early September, Trump held a 15-point lead on the economy. However, more recent polling has shown a narrower single-digit lead.
For many people, though, the economy comes down to one simple factor: purchasing power – particularly, what they can afford in their day-to-day lives. Essentially, the difference between what they earn and the rate at which prices are increasing, or inflation.
Real-terms wages were higher under Trump, with average earnings consistently outpacing inflation.
This was especially true during the pandemic, as average earnings were boosted by the departure of lower-paid employees from the workforce.
Overall, during his presidency, real wages increased by 7%.
Since Joe Biden and Harris have been running the economy, real wage growth hasn’t been as strong.
By mid-2022, it had fallen nearly 4% below where it had been at the start of their term.
Much of this was affected by the post-COVID recovery and external factors driving inflation.
There are signs that the economy is now improving for ordinary Americans, with real wage growth only 1% lower than when Biden and Harris took office.
But what is important to the candidates’ electoral success is whether voters are noticing the difference.
And it’s not yet clear that they are.
“Economists are saying ‘Unemployment has fallen, the economy’s growing stronger, so is wage growth’, which is true. But some people feel worse off now,” says Shaun Bowler, a professor of political science at the University of California Riverside.
Petrol (or ‘gas’ as it’s called in the US) prices are a good example.
In America, more than nine in 10 households own at least one vehicle.
During Trump’s presidency, petrol prices remained relatively low, staying under $3 per gallon and even dipping below $2 during the pandemic.
By contrast, under Biden and Harris, petrol prices rose to $3.06 per gallon by June 2021, hitting nearly $5 a year later.
Much of this was driven by factors outside of their control, including the global energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
This trend wasn’t unique to the US. In the UK, the cost of unleaded petrol rose by two-fifths from £1.30 per litre in June 2021 to £1.84 a year later.
“The Trump administration inherited a good economy from (Barack) Obama, one with low unemployment and inflation and that persisted for a couple of years,” says Professor Bowler.
“Then COVID upset everything, followed by the big supply shock of the war in Ukraine which gives us high inflation,” he adds.
While petrol prices have since dropped to $3.39 per gallon in the US, they remain higher than at any point during Trump’s term.
It’s these cost of living issues which have encouraged the Harris campaign to talk about what she would do as president to help the middle class, rather than spend too long trying to defend Biden’s economic record.
Immigration
One part of Biden’s record that Harris can’t escape is immigration, not least because the president tasked her with tackling the root causes of migration from Central American countries.
Trump has called Harris Biden’s “border tsar” and sought to blame her for problems at the US-Mexico border, and immigration policy overall.
She has been famously criticised by Trump for not visiting the border much during the last four years.
The vice president made her way there last week for a campaign rally. She was selling a message of zero tolerance on illegal immigration and highlighting an improvement in the data.
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But polls have consistently suggested that voters have little confidence in her record on the issue and still favour Trump as the candidate to manage it. Why?
Trump’s rhetoric has been more hardline, marked by the promise of a border wall which was never built during his victorious 2016 campaign for the presidency.
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One of the things Trump did introduce was Title 42 – a public health order during the pandemic – which enabled authorities to swiftly expel migrants without offering them the chance to seek asylum.
This led to an initial drop in people trying to cross the border between the official points of entry, but implementation was challenging.
Some countries were more able than others to accept people removed under Title 42. This meant the policy didn’t have as much impact as intended.
Nevertheless, these illegal crossings were relatively low, compared to when they rose during Harris’s first years in post.
This led to her having a bad reputation for handling the border.
But in recent months, there’s been a sudden and significant fall in people crossing between points of entry, most likely driven by a policy change.
In June, Biden and Harris introduced a controversial asylum ban allowing the deportation or turning back of migrants if illegal crossings exceed 2,500 per day for a week.
In the first month alone, illegal crossings dropped from 83,536 to 56,399.
Migrants wait to be processed after crossing the border on 5 June, the day Biden’s asylum ban took effect. Pic: AP/Eugene Garcia
However, it’s difficult to predict whether this will continue.
“After any sort of big policy change, we often see a drop in migrant encounters. It becomes this wait-and-see period and previously we’ve seen numbers go back up,” says Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, associate policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute.
In contrast, the number of undocumented migrants attempting to enter the US through official crossing points remains high.
This shift is largely due to the expanded use of an app called CBP One which in May 2023 became the only way migrants could schedule appointments for asylum claims at the border.
As with the economy, though, Harris has been narrowing the gap in the polls on immigration since taking over at the top of the Democratic ticket from Biden.
But this is still an issue Trump leads on with most voters.
Abortion rights
While Harris is making some progress in improving her standing versus Trump on the fundamental issues of the economy and immigration, she’s also trying to raise the profile of abortion as an election vote winner.
Abortion is one of the most divisive issues in the US and Harris has made it a cornerstone of her campaign.
Harris discusses reproductive rights on the second anniversary of Roe v Wade being overturned in Phoenix, Arizona. Pic: Reuters/Rebecca Noble
She has polled well on the issue, with a strong 19-point lead in a recent survey from KFF, and there’s evidence she is mobilising support among women.
“It’s been a winning issue for Democrats since the overturn of Roe, it is going to be playing out in various states on the ballot in November, and the Republicans basically don’t have a coherent line,” says Dr Richard Johnson, senior lecturer in US politics and policy at Queen Mary, University of London.
Trump’s appointment of judges that secured the conservative majority in the Supreme Court during his presidency helped in overturning Roe v Wade in 2022, allowing states to decide their own abortion laws.
Since then, several states have effectively banned most abortions, forcing women to travel across state lines for care.
From 2019 to 2023, the number of women who sought an abortion in a different state grew by 133% from more than 73,000 to over 170,000.
This November changes to abortion laws are on the ballot in 10 states and at least two of these, Arizona and Nevada, are key battleground contests.
As the race nears its final stretch, Trump’s reputation for handling key issues like the economy and immigration remains strong in the polls, but Harris has worked hard to close those gaps, while also boosting the profile of abortion as a pivotal issue.
The question now is whether voters will trust Trump’s version of his past performance or be swayed by Harris’s vision for the future.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
A charging document from prosecutors has revealed new details about Charlie Kirk’s suspected shooter, including incriminating messages he allegedly sent to his roommate.
The details came after Tyler Robinson, 22, appeared in court via video link from prison, having been charged with aggravated murder, weapon, and obstruction of justice offences.
He was arrested following a two-day manhunt after right-wing influencer Kirk, 31, was killed at one of his rallies at Utah Valley University (UVU) last Wednesday.
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Kirk murder suspect appears in court
Here are some of the key details included in Robinson’s charging document:
What was in the texts between Robinson and his roommate?
Investigators and prosecutors, including the Utah’s Republican governor, Spencer James Cox, have said Robinson was in a relationship with his roommate, a biological male in the process of transitioning.
The document reveals some of the exchanges between the pair, which prosecutors say were provided to the police by the roommate, despite Robinson allegedly demanding that they deleted them.
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What we know about the case against Tyler Robinson
On the day of the shooting, Robinson allegedly sent the roommate a text which read: “Drop what you are doing, look under my keyboard.”
Prosecutors say the roommate looked under his keyboard and found a note that stated: “I had the opportunity to take out Charlie Kirk and I’m going to take it.”
Robinson added he was hoping to be home soon and apologised for “involving” the roommate, adding he had “hoped to keep this secret till [sic] I died of old age”.
When his roommate asked if he was the “one who did it”, Robinson allegedly replied: “I am, I’m sorry.”
Robinson is said to have written in another text: “I had enough of his hatred. Some hate can’t be negotiated out.”
He supposedly wrote that he had planned the shooting for “a bit over a week” and later instructed the roommate to “delete this exchange”.
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Children present while bullet ‘passed closely’ by questioner
The shooting happened during Kirk’s “prove me wrong” series, which saw the father of two visit campuses and debate contentious subjects; in this case, he was discussing mass shootings.
The prosecutors say the bullet which struck Kirk’s neck “passed closely to several other individuals”, including the person questioning him as part of the event.
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How Tyler Robinson turned himself in
One of the seven counts against Robinson is for “violent offence committed in the presence of a child”, as prosecutors say there were children near the stage when Kirk was shot. The charge states that there was a child younger than 14 years old present.
Campus police officer started investigating immediately after shooting
The document details how one UVU police officer quickly uncovered the position where Kirk is believed to have taken the shot from.
It says the officer was watching the crowd from an elevated vantage point when the shot was fired, and that he began to scan the area for threats as soon as he heard it go off.
The officer assumed the shot came from a rifle based on its sound, and started looking for sniper positions.
A drone view shows the reported location of the shooter on the rooftop. Pic: Reuters
He noted the roof area where the shot could have been taken from. He rushed there and confirmed a clear shooting corridor between the position and Kirk’s seat.
“He also noticed markings in the gravel rooftop consistent with a sniper having lain on the roof – impressions in the gravel potentially left by the elbows, knees, and feet of a person in a prone shooting position,” the document states.
A drone view shows the scene where Kirk was shot. Pic: Reuters
Prosecutors say the discovery led the authorities to review footage covering the roof, which later helped them identify the suspect.
Targets with bullet holes found at suspect’s home
Police said they found several targets with bullet holes when they searched Robinson’s home, along with a shell casing with etchings in it.
The etchings, prosecutors said, were like the ones found on the shells in the rifle near UVU.
The words and symbols on those shells featured references to fascism, video games and internet memes.
Giant projections of Donald Trump alongside paedophile Jeffrey Epstein have been beamed on to Windsor Castle by protesters as the US president arrived in the UK for his second state visit.
Mr Trump has faced mounting questions about his relationship with the disgraced late billionaire after messages allegedly sent to him by the US president were published by Congress earlier this month.
Follow Trump’s second state visit live
A giant image of Epstein
Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell
The US president’s mugshot was projected on the castle too
The apparent notes – which Mr Trump denies having written – appeared in a 2003 “birthday book” for Epstein.
Four people were arrested on “suspicion of malicious communications” after the images of Mr Trump and Epstein appeared on the landmark, Thames Valley Police said.
Two men were also arrested for breaching airspace restrictions in place for Mr Trump’s visit.
Donald Trump, Melania Trump and Jeffrey Epstein
Pic: Reuters
The president is being feted with a stay in Windsor Castle, where he will be hosted by the King and treated to a ceremonial welcome on Wednesday and later, a lavish state banquet.
The Prince and Princess of Wales will meet the president and first lady Melania Trump in the grounds of the Windsor estate, where he will spend the day, before heading to the prime minister’s country residence Chequers on Thursday.
It is hoped the Queen – who pulled out of attending the Duchess of Kent’s funeral on Tuesday after suffering from acute sinusitis – will recover in time to attend the busy run of royal events.
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There are no public-facing engagements for the president throughout his 48-hour state visit, with thousands of people expected to take part in a major protest against his stay in central London today.
The Metropolitan Police said it is preparing for “a significant operation” with as many as 50 protest groups expected to take part.
More than 1,600 officers will be deployed, including 500 assisting from other forces.
A small group of protesters from the Stop Trump Coalition were in Windsor on Tuesday night.
Two protesters from the activist group Fossil Free London were escorted out of a dinner organised by Republicans Overseas UK at Windsor Guildhall in the Berkshire town.
They chanted “how many will you kill if you drill baby drill” and unfurled a banner that said: “Oily Money Kills” at the event.
Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump disembark Air Force One. Pic: Reuters
Speaking to reporters mid-flight, Mr Trump said: “My relationship is very good with the UK, and Charles, as you know, who’s now King, is my friend.
“It’s the first time this has ever happened where somebody was honoured twice. So, it’s a great honour.”
He told the journalists “everybody is looking forward to it. You’re going to have the best pictures”.
Tyler Robinson has been charged with the murder of right-wing US influencer Charlie Kirk.
The 22-year-old, from Washington, Utah, was charged with aggravated murder, weapon, and obstruction of justice offences ahead of a court appearance later on Tuesday.
Prosecutors said they would seek the death penalty and that Robinson’s DNA was found on the trigger of the alleged murder weapon.
A note was also found under his keyboard which said: “I had the opportunity to take out Charlie Kirk and I’m going to take it,” according to a charging document from prosecutors.
It is also alleged that the suspect ordered his roommate to delete “incriminating texts” about the killing and to stay silent if questioned by police.
When his roommate texted to ask if he was the “one who did it”, Robinson replied: “I am, I’m sorry,” prosecutors allege.
Robinson is said to have written in another text: “I had enough of his hatred. Some hate can’t be negotiated out.”
He also allegedly wrote he had been planning the shooting for just over a week.
Tyler Robinson. Pic: Utah Governor’s Office
Kirk, 31, was killed at one of his rallies at Utah Valley University last Wednesday.
The political activist, a close ally of US President Donald Trump, died after being shot in the neck with a bullet.
County attorney Jeff Gray said “aggravating factors” in the killing included that the “defendant is believed to have targeted Charlie Kirk based on his political expression and did so knowing children were present and would witness the homicide”.
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The obstruction of justice charges relate to allegations that Robinson disposed of the weapon used in the killing, along with clothing he is said to have worn at the time.
Robinson has been held without bail since his arrest.
Investigators have spoken to Robinson’s relatives and have carried out a search at his family home, 240 miles (385km) southwest of where the shooting took place.
Charlie Kirk moments before he was shot. Pic: Reuters/Trent Nelson/The Salt Lake Tribune
Mr Gray said Robinson had accused Kirk of “spreading hate” during a conversation with his father. He also allegedly described the university as a “stupid venue” for the influencer to hold an event.
After the shooting, the county attorney said the suspect confessed to his parents after they confronted him, telling them he shot Kirk because “there is too much evil in the guy”.
Robinson’s mother told police that her son had become more political and had “started to lean more to the left” in the past year or so, Mr Gray said.
He added that the 22-year-old had become more “pro-gay and trans-rights oriented”, according to his parents.
His mother said he had started to date his roommate, who was “transitioning genders”, prompting “discussions” with his father who had very different political views.
Robinson allegedly wrote in another message to his roommate that “since Trump got into office [my father] has been pretty diehard Maga”.
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