Trump v Harris: Perception, reality and how their records in office compare

Published

1 month ago

October 5, 2024

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Some Americans are already voting for their next president and, if polls are to be believed, the economy and immigration are at the forefront of many of their minds.

Voters consistently favour Donald Trump over Kamala Harris as the best person to manage both, but recently Harris has narrowed the gap.

The economy

In a Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) poll from early September, Trump held a 15-point lead on the economy. However, more recent polling has shown a narrower single-digit lead.

For many people, though, the economy comes down to one simple factor: purchasing power – particularly, what they can afford in their day-to-day lives. Essentially, the difference between what they earn and the rate at which prices are increasing, or inflation.

Real-terms wages were higher under Trump, with average earnings consistently outpacing inflation.

This was especially true during the pandemic, as average earnings were boosted by the departure of lower-paid employees from the workforce.

Overall, during his presidency, real wages increased by 7%.

Since Joe Biden and Harris have been running the economy, real wage growth hasn’t been as strong.

By mid-2022, it had fallen nearly 4% below where it had been at the start of their term.

Much of this was affected by the post-COVID recovery and external factors driving inflation.

There are signs that the economy is now improving for ordinary Americans, with real wage growth only 1% lower than when Biden and Harris took office.

But what is important to the candidates’ electoral success is whether voters are noticing the difference.

And it’s not yet clear that they are.

“Economists are saying ‘Unemployment has fallen, the economy’s growing stronger, so is wage growth’, which is true. But some people feel worse off now,” says Shaun Bowler, a professor of political science at the University of California Riverside.

Petrol (or ‘gas’ as it’s called in the US) prices are a good example.

In America, more than nine in 10 households own at least one vehicle.

During Trump’s presidency, petrol prices remained relatively low, staying under $3 per gallon and even dipping below $2 during the pandemic.

By contrast, under Biden and Harris, petrol prices rose to $3.06 per gallon by June 2021, hitting nearly $5 a year later.

Much of this was driven by factors outside of their control, including the global energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This trend wasn’t unique to the US. In the UK, the cost of unleaded petrol rose by two-fifths from £1.30 per litre in June 2021 to £1.84 a year later.

“The Trump administration inherited a good economy from (Barack) Obama, one with low unemployment and inflation and that persisted for a couple of years,” says Professor Bowler.

“Then COVID upset everything, followed by the big supply shock of the war in Ukraine which gives us high inflation,” he adds.

While petrol prices have since dropped to $3.39 per gallon in the US, they remain higher than at any point during Trump’s term.

It’s these cost of living issues which have encouraged the Harris campaign to talk about what she would do as president to help the middle class, rather than spend too long trying to defend Biden’s economic record.

Immigration

One part of Biden’s record that Harris can’t escape is immigration, not least because the president tasked her with tackling the root causes of migration from Central American countries.

Trump has called Harris Biden’s “border tsar” and sought to blame her for problems at the US-Mexico border, and immigration policy overall.

She has been famously criticised by Trump for not visiting the border much during the last four years.

The vice president made her way there last week for a campaign rally. She was selling a message of zero tolerance on illegal immigration and highlighting an improvement in the data.

But polls have consistently suggested that voters have little confidence in her record on the issue and still favour Trump as the candidate to manage it. Why?

Trump’s rhetoric has been more hardline, marked by the promise of a border wall which was never built during his victorious 2016 campaign for the presidency.

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One of the things Trump did introduce was Title 42 – a public health order during the pandemic – which enabled authorities to swiftly expel migrants without offering them the chance to seek asylum.

This led to an initial drop in people trying to cross the border between the official points of entry, but implementation was challenging.

Some countries were more able than others to accept people removed under Title 42. This meant the policy didn’t have as much impact as intended.

Nevertheless, these illegal crossings were relatively low, compared to when they rose during Harris’s first years in post.

This led to her having a bad reputation for handling the border.

But in recent months, there’s been a sudden and significant fall in people crossing between points of entry, most likely driven by a policy change.

In June, Biden and Harris introduced a controversial asylum ban allowing the deportation or turning back of migrants if illegal crossings exceed 2,500 per day for a week.

In the first month alone, illegal crossings dropped from 83,536 to 56,399.

However, it’s difficult to predict whether this will continue.

“After any sort of big policy change, we often see a drop in migrant encounters. It becomes this wait-and-see period and previously we’ve seen numbers go back up,” says Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, associate policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute.

In contrast, the number of undocumented migrants attempting to enter the US through official crossing points remains high.

This shift is largely due to the expanded use of an app called CBP One which in May 2023 became the only way migrants could schedule appointments for asylum claims at the border.

As with the economy, though, Harris has been narrowing the gap in the polls on immigration since taking over at the top of the Democratic ticket from Biden.

But this is still an issue Trump leads on with most voters.

Abortion rights

While Harris is making some progress in improving her standing versus Trump on the fundamental issues of the economy and immigration, she’s also trying to raise the profile of abortion as an election vote winner.

Abortion is one of the most divisive issues in the US and Harris has made it a cornerstone of her campaign.

She has polled well on the issue, with a strong 19-point lead in a recent survey from KFF, and there’s evidence she is mobilising support among women.

“It’s been a winning issue for Democrats since the overturn of Roe, it is going to be playing out in various states on the ballot in November, and the Republicans basically don’t have a coherent line,” says Dr Richard Johnson, senior lecturer in US politics and policy at Queen Mary, University of London.

Trump’s appointment of judges that secured the conservative majority in the Supreme Court during his presidency helped in overturning Roe v Wade in 2022, allowing states to decide their own abortion laws.

Since then, several states have effectively banned most abortions, forcing women to travel across state lines for care.

From 2019 to 2023, the number of women who sought an abortion in a different state grew by 133% from more than 73,000 to over 170,000.

This November changes to abortion laws are on the ballot in 10 states and at least two of these, Arizona and Nevada, are key battleground contests.

As the race nears its final stretch, Trump’s reputation for handling key issues like the economy and immigration remains strong in the polls, but Harris has worked hard to close those gaps, while also boosting the profile of abortion as a pivotal issue.

The question now is whether voters will trust Trump’s version of his past performance or be swayed by Harris’s vision for the future.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

US

Elon Musk can keep giving away $1m to voters, judge rules – as lawyer admits winners aren’t chosen randomly

Published

2 hours ago

November 5, 2024

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Elon Musk can keep giving away m to voters, judge rules - as lawyer admits winners aren't chosen randomly

Elon Musk can keep giving away $1m to voters in battleground states, a judge has ruled – as a lawyer admitted the winners aren’t chosen randomly.

Musk – a supporter of Republican candidate Donald Trump – launched the giveaways last month via America PAC, his political action committee (PAC).

He has already handed out $16m in the scheme, which is open to registered voters in seven key battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – who sign a petition pledging to support free speech and gun rights.

On Monday, Pennsylvania Judge Angelo Foglietta ruled the giveaways could carry on, rejecting a district attorney’s request that he shut it down because it allegedly violated state election law.

US election latest: Harris team reveals when it expects results

Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, a Democrat, said it was “a political marketing masquerading as a lottery”, adding “That’s what it is. A grift.”

Judge Foglietta did not explain his ruling on the matter but Chris Gober, a lawyer for America PAC, had argued the winners are not chosen by chance and are instead hand-picked based on who would be the best spokespeople for the group – despite Musk’s assertion that they would be chosen randomly.

Mr Gober said the final two winners before Tuesday’s presidential election will be in Arizona on Monday and Michigan on Tuesday.

He said the recipients “are not chosen by chance”, adding: “We know exactly who will be announced as the recipient today and tomorrow.”

America PAC director Chris Young said recipients are vetted ahead of time to “feel out their personality, (and) make sure they were someone whose values aligned” with the group.

In closing arguments, Musk’s legal team said it was “core political speech” as anyone taking part had to sign a petition endorsing the US Constitution.

Given there will be no more Pennsylvania winners before the programme ends, Musk’s lawyers said any legal bid to stop it under Pennsylvania law was irrelevant.

Launching the plan in the state on 19 October, Musk said they would be “awarding a million dollars randomly to people who have signed the petition every day from now until the election.”

The following day, he said in a social media post shown in court that anyone signing the petition had “a daily chance of winning one million dollars!”

Musk did not attend the hearing.

US

What a Trump presidency would mean for global wars and European security

Published

11 hours ago

November 4, 2024

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What a Trump presidency would mean for global wars and European security

Donald Trump says he would end Russia’s war in Ukraine should he return to the White House – but any rushed deal will likely leave Kyiv much weaker and European security in even greater peril.

Another major flashpoint a Trump presidency would immediately seek to influence is the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.

Mr Trump came close to direct war with Tehran during his first term in office and prior restraint could well give way to direct confrontation this time around.

US election latest: Harris and Trump make final pitches

Then there is the overwhelming longer-term challenge posed by China, with North Korea another growing headache especially after Mr Trump tried but failed to woo the leader of the hermit state during his first stint as commander-in-chief.

With the US election on a knife edge, hostile and friendly capitals around the world have been gaming what a second Trump White House might mean for their respective national interests and for the most pressing global security threats.

Mr Trump’s track record of unpredictability is a challenge for traditional foes – but also for Washington’s closest allies, in particular fellow members of the NATO alliance.

The Republican nominee has made no secret of his frustration at how the US has for decades bankrolled the security blanket that protects Europe.

During his first term as president, Mr Trump threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance – a move that would almost certainly sound its death knell. His rhetoric did help to spur allies to dig deeper into their pockets and spend more on their militaries, though.

But the damage of years of underinvestment is deep and the pace of recovery is too slow for European NATO allies and Canada to credibly stand on their own as a potent military force any time soon.

In terms of immediacy when it comes to global crises, the impact of a Trump victory on 5 November would be felt most acutely by Ukraine and also by Iran.

The presidential candidate has repeatedly claimed that he would quickly end the Ukraine war, though without explaining how or what peace would look like.

In an indication of where his priorities lie, however, he has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being the “greatest salesman on earth” for securing tens of billions of dollars in weapons and other assistance that Washington has given to Kyiv.

Yet – coupled with Ukraine’s willingness to fight – that military aid is the biggest reason why Ukraine has managed to withstand almost 1,000 days of Vladimir Putin’s war.

Stop the flow of American weapons, and Ukrainian troops – despite their own ingenuity and the support of other allies – will simply lack the firepower to keep resisting the onslaught.

By contrast, US vice president Kamala Harris, who is vying for the top job, has made clear that she views continued support to Ukraine as being as vital to US and Western interests as it is to Kyiv’s – a far more familiar stance that echoes the view of her NATO partners.

While US support for Ukraine would undoubtedly change under a Trump administration, that is not the same as facilitating a complete surrender.

The former president – who portrays himself as the ultimate dealmaker and has adopted a new election slogan – “Trump will fix it” – will not want to be held responsible for the total absorption of Ukraine into Mr Putin’s orbit.

Putin and Iran

His relationship with the Russian president is a particularly interesting dynamic.

When president, he infamously said he trusted Mr Putin’s denials over his own intelligence agencies when it came to claims about Russian interference in the 2016 US election.

But with the right advice, might a future President Trump be able to use his connection with Mr Putin to the West’s advantage?

At the very least, it adds a new level of unpredictability – which is perhaps the most important element when it comes to assessing the potential impact on the world of a second Trump term.

On Iran, in stark contrast to his approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, a future President Trump may well back much greater US military support for Israel’s conflict against Tehran and its proxies – perhaps even direct involvement by US forces in strikes on Iran.

Mr Trump has an even tougher stance towards Tehran and its nuclear ambitions than Joe Biden’s administration.

His decision to rip up a major nuclear deal with Iran was one of his most significant foreign policy acts during his four years as president.

It is also personal, with Iran accused of hacking the Trump campaign in recent months – an attack that would surely only heighten tensions with Iran during any second Trump term.

On election night, Sky News will have access to the most comprehensive exit poll and vote-counting results from every state, county and demographic across America through its US-partner network NBC.

You can find out more about Sky News’ coverage here.

US

‘My family are all Republicans but half are voting Democrat,’ says Arizona voter as swing states prepare for election

Published

11 hours ago

November 4, 2024

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'My family are all Republicans but half are voting Democrat,' says Arizona voter as swing states prepare for election

The sprawling state of Arizona was once reliably Republican but in 2020 that changed.

Joe Biden became only the second Democrat to win here since 1948, winning by less than 11,000 votes, and polling suggests Arizona could once again be won and lost by the narrowest of margins.

Above Phoenix, Dobbins Lookout provides a panoramic view of the rugged Grand Canyon State.

Many of the people there to watch the Friday night sunset were contemplating a consequential decision.

Those include Jennifer Montero and her fiance Richie Garcia, who say their vote on Tuesday is based on their economic circumstances.

“Prices have gone up like crazy,” said Ms Montero, “and then, especially now that I’m wanting to get married and have kids, I definitely want to be able to go to McDonald’s and afford a spicy for a dollar like they used to be.”

The couple are of Mexican descent, in a state where one in four voters are Latin American and the debate about immigration is complicated.

For Mr Garcia, being born in America means the border is less of a concern.

“Times are changing. I think a lot of the Hispanic community was very inclined to vote Democrat due to immigration status, but my parents are citizens. I believe that immigration status doesn’t really matter to me much anymore,” he said.

Less than 30 minutes away in downtown Phoenix, people were already beginning to vote at a drive-through polling centre.

One of them was Renee Rojas, a lifelong Republican voting Democrat for the first time.

Ms Rojas, who is of Native American and Latino descent, says that decision is down to Donald Trump.

“Recent rhetoric and the changes of the Republican Party just made me realise that things are not going the way they should be,” she said, before adding, “My mom, my grandmother is a Republican. She’s Navajo. You know, my other family members and friends, they’re all Republicans, but half of them are voting Democrat this year.”

US election latest: Harris and Trump make late bid to woo voters

Ms Rojas’s thoughts on the prospect of trouble after the result are a reminder of the strong Conservative values of the state she lives in.

“I’m an Arizonan. I have a gun myself, I have several different kinds of firearms, heavy machine guns and handguns. So I am a proud gun holder and people will demonstrate the way they want to as long as they’re not hurting anybody.”

For other drive-through voters like Peter Orozco, the choice was a simple one, about stability.

He feels the current administration will maintain the foreign policy status quo.

“We can’t politically make any big changes, especially on an international scale, you know, because if we get somebody else president other than what the existing presidency is, it could be World War Three,” he said.

In Arizona, there are other voters who feel the state is worse off since the Democrats came to power.

They include Dane Jensen, a 26-year-old mortgage broker.

For the last few days, Mr Jensen has been standing outside another polling station in Scottsdale with a “Swifties for Trump” banner.

He made the banner as a joke to try to ruffle the feathers of people voting for the Democratic party, which the singer has endorsed.

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About Swift, he said: “That’s like someone like that who has a private jet and is flying around the country who is, in my opinion, creating more fossil fuels and bad energy for the environment than any one person.

“And for you to sit there on your high horse and billions of dollars, and tell people what you think should happen when you’re already set for life, I don’t really agree with that.”

Beyond celebrity endorsements is an economic and social reality in Arizona, which Mr Jensen and all the voters in the state will recognise.

“I’m born and raised here. So I know that area as well as anyone. But, you know, crime, the border economy, those are really important issues, they’re everyday issues,” he said.

It’s those everyday issues in a handful of vital places like Arizona that will decide an election hinging on the tightest of margins.

On the night, Sky News will have access to the most comprehensive exit poll and vote-counting results from every state, county and demographic across America through its US-partner network NBC.

You can find out more about Sky News’ coverage here.