Trump v Harris: Perception, reality and how their records in office compare
Some Americans are already voting for their next president and, if polls are to be believed, the economy and immigration are at the forefront of many of their minds.
Voters consistently favour Donald Trump over Kamala Harris as the best person to manage both, but recently Harris has narrowed the gap.
The economy
In a Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) poll from early September, Trump held a 15-point lead on the economy. However, more recent polling has shown a narrower single-digit lead.
For many people, though, the economy comes down to one simple factor: purchasing power – particularly, what they can afford in their day-to-day lives. Essentially, the difference between what they earn and the rate at which prices are increasing, or inflation.
Real-terms wages were higher under Trump, with average earnings consistently outpacing inflation.
This was especially true during the pandemic, as average earnings were boosted by the departure of lower-paid employees from the workforce.
Overall, during his presidency, real wages increased by 7%.
Since Joe Biden and Harris have been running the economy, real wage growth hasn’t been as strong.
By mid-2022, it had fallen nearly 4% below where it had been at the start of their term.
Much of this was affected by the post-COVID recovery and external factors driving inflation.
There are signs that the economy is now improving for ordinary Americans, with real wage growth only 1% lower than when Biden and Harris took office.
But what is important to the candidates’ electoral success is whether voters are noticing the difference.
And it’s not yet clear that they are.
“Economists are saying ‘Unemployment has fallen, the economy’s growing stronger, so is wage growth’, which is true. But some people feel worse off now,” says Shaun Bowler, a professor of political science at the University of California Riverside.
Petrol (or ‘gas’ as it’s called in the US) prices are a good example.
In America, more than nine in 10 households own at least one vehicle.
During Trump’s presidency, petrol prices remained relatively low, staying under $3 per gallon and even dipping below $2 during the pandemic.
By contrast, under Biden and Harris, petrol prices rose to $3.06 per gallon by June 2021, hitting nearly $5 a year later.
Much of this was driven by factors outside of their control, including the global energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
This trend wasn’t unique to the US. In the UK, the cost of unleaded petrol rose by two-fifths from £1.30 per litre in June 2021 to £1.84 a year later.
“The Trump administration inherited a good economy from (Barack) Obama, one with low unemployment and inflation and that persisted for a couple of years,” says Professor Bowler.
“Then COVID upset everything, followed by the big supply shock of the war in Ukraine which gives us high inflation,” he adds.
While petrol prices have since dropped to $3.39 per gallon in the US, they remain higher than at any point during Trump’s term.
It’s these cost of living issues which have encouraged the Harris campaign to talk about what she would do as president to help the middle class, rather than spend too long trying to defend Biden’s economic record.
Immigration
One part of Biden’s record that Harris can’t escape is immigration, not least because the president tasked her with tackling the root causes of migration from Central American countries.
Trump has called Harris Biden’s “border tsar” and sought to blame her for problems at the US-Mexico border, and immigration policy overall.
She has been famously criticised by Trump for not visiting the border much during the last four years.
The vice president made her way there last week for a campaign rally. She was selling a message of zero tolerance on illegal immigration and highlighting an improvement in the data.
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But polls have consistently suggested that voters have little confidence in her record on the issue and still favour Trump as the candidate to manage it. Why?
Trump’s rhetoric has been more hardline, marked by the promise of a border wall which was never built during his victorious 2016 campaign for the presidency.
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One of the things Trump did introduce was Title 42 – a public health order during the pandemic – which enabled authorities to swiftly expel migrants without offering them the chance to seek asylum.
This led to an initial drop in people trying to cross the border between the official points of entry, but implementation was challenging.
Some countries were more able than others to accept people removed under Title 42. This meant the policy didn’t have as much impact as intended.
Nevertheless, these illegal crossings were relatively low, compared to when they rose during Harris’s first years in post.
This led to her having a bad reputation for handling the border.
But in recent months, there’s been a sudden and significant fall in people crossing between points of entry, most likely driven by a policy change.
In June, Biden and Harris introduced a controversial asylum ban allowing the deportation or turning back of migrants if illegal crossings exceed 2,500 per day for a week.
In the first month alone, illegal crossings dropped from 83,536 to 56,399.
Migrants wait to be processed after crossing the border on 5 June, the day Biden’s asylum ban took effect. Pic: AP/Eugene Garcia
However, it’s difficult to predict whether this will continue.
“After any sort of big policy change, we often see a drop in migrant encounters. It becomes this wait-and-see period and previously we’ve seen numbers go back up,” says Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, associate policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute.
In contrast, the number of undocumented migrants attempting to enter the US through official crossing points remains high.
This shift is largely due to the expanded use of an app called CBP One which in May 2023 became the only way migrants could schedule appointments for asylum claims at the border.
As with the economy, though, Harris has been narrowing the gap in the polls on immigration since taking over at the top of the Democratic ticket from Biden.
But this is still an issue Trump leads on with most voters.
Abortion rights
While Harris is making some progress in improving her standing versus Trump on the fundamental issues of the economy and immigration, she’s also trying to raise the profile of abortion as an election vote winner.
Abortion is one of the most divisive issues in the US and Harris has made it a cornerstone of her campaign.
Harris discusses reproductive rights on the second anniversary of Roe v Wade being overturned in Phoenix, Arizona. Pic: Reuters/Rebecca Noble
She has polled well on the issue, with a strong 19-point lead in a recent survey from KFF, and there’s evidence she is mobilising support among women.
“It’s been a winning issue for Democrats since the overturn of Roe, it is going to be playing out in various states on the ballot in November, and the Republicans basically don’t have a coherent line,” says Dr Richard Johnson, senior lecturer in US politics and policy at Queen Mary, University of London.
Trump’s appointment of judges that secured the conservative majority in the Supreme Court during his presidency helped in overturning Roe v Wade in 2022, allowing states to decide their own abortion laws.
Since then, several states have effectively banned most abortions, forcing women to travel across state lines for care.
From 2019 to 2023, the number of women who sought an abortion in a different state grew by 133% from more than 73,000 to over 170,000.
This November changes to abortion laws are on the ballot in 10 states and at least two of these, Arizona and Nevada, are key battleground contests.
As the race nears its final stretch, Trump’s reputation for handling key issues like the economy and immigration remains strong in the polls, but Harris has worked hard to close those gaps, while also boosting the profile of abortion as a pivotal issue.
The question now is whether voters will trust Trump’s version of his past performance or be swayed by Harris’s vision for the future.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
US
Federal judges rule Trump tariffs can stay in place for now – as president rages at trade court’s ‘country threatening decision’
A federal appeals court has ruled that Donald Trump’s sweeping international tariffs can remain in place for now, a day after three judges ruled the president exceeded his authority.
The Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (CAFC) has allowed the president to temporarily continue collecting tariffs under emergency legislation while it considers the government’s appeal.
It comes after the Court of International Trade blocked the additional taxes on foreign-made goods after its three-judge panel ruled that the Constitution gives Congress the power to levy taxes and tariffs – not the president.
The judges also ruled Mr Trump exceeded his authority by invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
The CAFC said the lower trade court and the Trump administration must respond by 5 June and 9 June, respectively.
Trump calls trade court ‘backroom hustlers’
Posting on Truth Social, Mr Trump said the trade court’s ruling was a “horrible, Country threatening decision,” and said he hopes the Supreme Court would reverse it “QUICKLY and DECISIVELY”.
After calling into question the appointment of the three judges, and suggesting the ruling was based on “purely a hatred of ‘TRUMP’,” he added: “Backroom ‘hustlers’ must not be allowed to destroy our Nation!
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Trump asked about ‘taco trade’
“The horrific decision stated that I would have to get the approval of Congress for these Tariffs. In other words, hundreds of politicians would sit around D.C. for weeks, and even months, trying to come to a conclusion as to what to charge other Countries that are treating us unfairly.
“If allowed to stand, this would completely destroy Presidential Power — The Presidency would never be the same!”
The US president unveiled the controversial measures on “Liberation Day” in April, which included a 10% tariff on UK imports and caused aggressive sell-offs in the stock market.
Mr Trump argued he invoked the decades-old law to collect international tariffs because it was a “national emergency”.
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From April: ‘This is Liberation Day’
Tariffs ‘direct threat’ to business – Schwab
The trade court ruling marked the latest legal challenge to the tariffs, and related to a case brought on behalf of five small businesses that import goods from other countries.
Jeffrey Schwab, senior counsel for the Liberty Justice Center – a nonprofit representing the five firms – said the appeal court would ultimately agree that the tariffs posed “a direct threat to the very survival of these businesses”.
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US treasury secretary Scott Bessent also told Fox News on Thursday that the initial ruling had not interfered with trade deal negotiations with partners.
He said that countries “are coming to us in good faith” and “we’ve seen no change in their attitude in the past 48 hours,” before saying he would meet with a Japanese delegation in Washington on Friday.
Harvard graduates have a lot to say. In a sign of the times, now isn’t the time to say it.
That much was clear when I sought student opinion at the gates of America’s oldest university. There is a reluctance to talk about Trump.
“He needs to come back to this country,” said a Harvard dad of his son, politely declining an interview on the youngster’s behalf.
The young man, British, falls into the category of international student – a vulnerable species, currently, in America’s elite university system.
For him, saying the ‘wrong’ thing carries the risk of an exclusion order to go with his graduation certificate. Dad knows best.
It is the modern reality at the gates of Harvard – this iconic seat of learning and crucible of free speech and ideas isn’t as free as it was. For now, at least.
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It’s fair to say Harvard had other things on its mind this week, with Thursday’s ‘commencement’ day and graduation parades winding their route through surrounding streets in a ‘town and gown’ spectacle.
There were bagpipes and brass bands to lead students in their crowning moment. It was an emotional thank you and goodbye to Harvard, with a celebration soundtrack of music and ‘mwah’.
And yet, there was a political undercurrent. There has to be, when a US institution is at war with its president.
Some students wore a white flower on their lapel as a symbol of solidarity with Harvard’s international students.
Harvard president Alan Garber said graduates came from ‘around the world, just as it should be’
In giving his speech at the podium, Harvard president Alan Garber was given a standing ovation when he noted that graduates hail from “around the world, just as it should be”.
As graduates and families gathered in Harvard Yard, the university’s defiance against Trump was playing out simultaneously in court, where the latest hearing took place on government efforts to stop the enrolment of foreign students.
Donald Trump is ‘trying to crush us,’ Leo Gerden tells Sky News
Leo Gerden, a 22 year-old student from Sweden, was graduating in economics and government. We chatted while he stiffened himself with a Starbucks for the celebrations ahead.
What were his thoughts, as someone fitting the profile picked on by the government of his host country?
“I feel like the entire Harvard is under attack, because without its international students, Harvard is not Harvard anymore,” he said.
“He’s trying to crush us, but we have shown over the last couple of weeks that he won’t do that easily. The uncertainty itself is going to cause a lot of harm.
“People are definitely reconsidering their plans right now, whether it was coming to America, going to any university, because they might be next on Trump’s target list.”
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The distraction is widely shared across campus, so is the sentiment – not that it’ll trouble the White House.
Places like Harvard don’t lean Trump, and he’ll lose few votes in this fight.
It is a conflict to shape the future of US education – it’s politics, but it’s much more.
US
Former Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs assistant breaks down as she tells trial of alleged sexual assaults: ‘I thought I was going to die with this’
A former employee of Sean “Diddy” Combs broke down in tears as she described being sexually assaulted by the hip-hop star on several occasions – telling the court the alleged abuse was “the most traumatising, worst thing that’s ever happened to me”.
Three weeks into the trial, Mia* is the second alleged victim to testify against Combs, following his former partner Cassie’s evidence alleging years of physical, sexual and emotional abuse.
While Cassie waived her right to anonymity, Mia did not want to be identified and is appearing in court in Manhattan, New York, under a pseudonym.
She started by telling the court about witnessing Combs, 55, being violent towards Cassie, before moving on to talk about her own experiences.
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Combs’s motherJanice Combs has been supporting him in court every day. Pic: Reuters
Mia told the court she once woke to find Combs on top of her and that he forced her to have sex against her will. Another time, he forced her to perform oral sex, she alleged.
He also once threw a bucket of ice on her head and slammed her arm into a door on another occasion, she said.
The court heard Mia had never told anyone about the alleged sexual assaults by Combs until she spoke to government investigators for this case.
“I was going to die with this,” she said, becoming tearful on the stand. “I didn’t want anyone to know ever.”
Telling the court she could not say “no” to her former boss, she said: “I knew his power. And his control. I didn’t want to lose everything that I worked so hard for.”
She also said she feared being attacked and was “always” worried about being physically hurt by Combs. “I didn’t want to die or get hurt.”
Mia said she felt “desperate”, “terrified and trapped” and described the alleged sexual assaults as “the most shameful thing of my life”, and “the most traumatising, worst thing that’s ever happened to me”.
Asked why she is speaking out now, she told the court: “Because I have to tell the truth.”
Marc Agnifilo, one of Diddy’s defence lawyers, pictured outside court. Pic: Reuters/ Eduardo Munoz
‘Chaotic and toxic’
Mia, faltering at times, said working for Combs came with extreme highs and lows.
Sometimes he would offer advice and act like her “protector”, she said. Other times, he would “humiliate” her and berate her for small mistakes, and work her so hard she had little sleep, she said.
“It was chaotic. It was toxic,” she told the court.
Combs’s employees were always on edge because his mood could “change in a split second”, causing everything to go from “happy to chaotic”, she said.
Mia told how she was barely at home once she started working for Combs. Like other employees, she often slept at his properties in LA, Miami and New York.
She told the court she was not allowed to leave without his permission and was not allowed lock her door, even though it seemed as if other members of the predominantly male security staff were able to do so.
“This is my house. No one locks the doors,” Combs allegedly said to her.
On one occasion, Mia said she worked without sleeping for five days, with prescription drugs getting her through it. It was only when she had a physical breakdown that Combs allowed her to sleep, jurors were told.
Mia’s testimony echoed that of prior prosecution witnesses, including several of Combs’s other former employees, as well as Cassie.
King Combs and Quincy Brown, two of Combs’s sons, were in court for today’s session. Pic: Reuters/ Eduardo Munoz
Cassie, an R’n’B singer and model whose legal name is Casandra Ventura, spoke for four days during the first week of the trial.
She told jurors her ex-partner subjected her to hundreds of “freak offs” – drug-fuelled marathons in which she said she engaged in sex acts with male sex workers while he watched and filmed them.
Heavily pregnant at the time, it was confirmed in court yesterday that she gave birth to her third child earlier this week.
Mia is the second of three women testifying about alleged sexual abuse by Combs. The third woman, using the pseudonym “Jane”, is also expected to testify about participating in freak offs.
Combs has pleaded not guilty to charges of sex trafficking, racketeering conspiracy and transportation to engage in prostitution.
During their opening statement, his lawyers conceded he could be violent at times, but said that did not make him a sex trafficker or racketeering leader. Combs denies using threats or his music industry clout to commit or cover up abuse.
What did Mia say about Cassie?
Cassie, who was heavily pregnant when she testified, has now given birth to her third child. Pic: Reuters/ Jane Rosenberg
In the first part of her testimony, Mia told the court she saw Combs beating Cassie on several occasions and that she sustained injuries, including black eyes, other bruises, and fat lips.
The two became friends, she said, and are still friends today.
Mia described a party at Prince’s house that she and Cassie “snuck out” to, saying Prince’s security had to intervene when Combs turned up and started to attack her.
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She also described a trip to a private island in Turks and Caicos, in the Caribbean, saying she remembers Cassie being “terrified” as Combs banged on her door “screaming”.
On another occasion during that trip, they used paddle boards to go out to sea to get away from him, she said – but the weather changed and the sky turned dark.
“I was trying to weigh if it was scarier to face Mother Nature or go back to Puff,” Mia said, using the name she knew him by. “We eventually went back to Puff.”
Combs was also abusive to Cassie at the Cannes Film Festival in 2012, the court was told. Mia alleged she saw him digging his nails into her as they watched a film.
Mia’s testimony will continue when the trial resumes on Friday.
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