
Vandy beats Bama! Arkansas beats Tennessee! How Week 6 brought the chaos
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David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterOct 6, 2024, 02:55 AM ET
Close- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
If we are, as some scientists have hypothesized, living in a multiverse in which all possible outcomes occur along some timeline, then we can still rest easy knowing that our lives are in fact unique and special and touched by some higher power because in no other possible universe could what unfolded on Saturday in college football happen again.
It was a rough Saturday for the top teams in the sport, and none suffered a more horrific fate than Alabama.
A week ago, the Tide escaped Georgia in what seemed like the best game of the year, a harbinger that their dynasty didn’t end with Nick Saban’s departure; it was simply a changing of the guard to Kalen DeBoer’s Bama.
And on Saturday, the king was replaced again, usurped by the court jester’s good-for-nothing roommate.
Vanderbilt did the impossible, knocking off No. 1 Alabama 40-35 in a game that might not technically qualify as the biggest upset in the sport’s modern era but certainly fits the bill in spirit, but it was really just the beginning.
Nothing about Week 6 screamed drama. It was a week in which just one pair of top-25 teams met on the field — and that turned out to be a snooze, as Texas A&M romped over No. 9 Missouri. The other powers — Georgia, Penn State, Ole Miss and Oregon — seemed to sleepwalk to easy enough wins.
Then No. 10 Michigan lost to unranked Washington. Then No. 11 USC lost to unranked Minnesota. Then No. 4 Tennessee lost to unranked Arkansas. The weekend that was supposed to provide only the dullest of chalk ended up giving us one of the most stunning strings of upsets we’ve had in years — five of the nation’s top 11 losing on the same day for the first time since 2016. A sixth team, Miami, needed a miracle (and a helpful review) to escape at Cal.
Saturday delivered utter absurdity, a Mad Libs of final scores that left the AP poll in tatters. But no outcome was more incredible than what happened in Nashville.
That Alabama found itself suffering through a hangover in Nashville is no surprise. The win over Georgia had felt so seismic, an exclamation point for a program used to making statements.
By halftime on Saturday, the hangover looked a bit more serious than we might’ve expected. But by the time Commodores tight end Kamrean Johnson hauled in a 6-yard touchdown pass from Diego Pavia with 5:07 to play. we’d reached a “Let’s DoorDash Arby’s” level of hangover.
And yet, it still felt almost inevitable that Alabama would find a way — just as it had a week ago, behind quarterback Jalen Milroe‘s arm and wide receiver Ryan Williams‘ magic.
Then Pavia threw a 19-yard completion.
Then Sedrick Alexander ran for 13 yards through the teeth of Alabama’s flummoxed defense.
Then Pavia scrambled for 8 yards and a first down with 1:10 to play — and all Vandy had to do was take a knee to secure its first win over a top-five opponent in 60 tries and leave the bachelorette parties downtown squealing and whooping incoherently (though that last part might have been unrelated).
It was the type of mythical David-over-Goliath win they write songs about, if only Nashville had any songwriters.
For the Commodores, there were so many small storylines that felt, in retrospect, like genuine foreshadowing. There was coach Clark Lea’s promise in the summer of 2022 that Vandy would one day be the best program in the country. He might as well have told the assembled masses at SEC media day that Saban was going to retire and start riding around in a van with his dog solving mysteries. It was nonsensical. And yet, here we are, witness to Vandy toppling the No. 1 team in the nation.
It was less than 11 months ago that Pavia and Jerry Kill led New Mexico State into Jordan-Hare Stadium and utterly embarrassed Auburn. Now, both are at Vandy — Pavia as QB, Kill as advisor to Lea — and they’ve beaten Bama too. Pavia yelled into a microphone on live television that Nashville would be “f—ing turnt,” and somehow that seemed a perfectly natural reaction — subdued, even — to what happened but also an earned celebration for a kid who grew up idolizing Johnny Manziel and dreaming of a moment like this. That Kill has helped turn around both New Mexico State and Vandy in consecutive years is probably enough evidence to warrant sandblasting Jefferson off Mount Rushmore and carving out Kill’s likeness instead.
In its opener this season, Vandy escaped Virginia Tech in part because it got a second chance after the Hokies inexplicably sent two players onto the field wearing the same jersey number during a Vanderbilt punt. The Commodores eventually turned that second chance into a touchdown in a game ultimately won by one possession. And on Saturday, the same thing happened. The difference between 3-2 Vandy with two epic wins and 1-4 Vandy being completely ignored on the national stage is literally another team’s laundry.
It was another résumé win for a school whose résumé previously just read: “Technically a football team.” For virtually the entirety of its history, Vandy was essentially the SEC’s version of the dead body at the start of each episode of “Law & Order.” That’s essential to the plot of the show, but it isn’t supposed to have any dialogue and mostly exists to allow the stars to make a few dark jokes. And now the Commodores have wins over Virginia Tech and Alabama, a narrow defeat to a top-10 Missouri and a close loss to an unspecified team from Georgia. (Let them have their moment.)
What was most exhilarating and confounding, though, was that Vandy absolutely deserved this win. It had nine more first downs than the Tide. It ran for more yards, often straight up the gut against a Bama front that looked a shell of what we saw a week ago against Georgia. It refused to let drives die, converting 13 of 19 third- and fourth-down tries, and as a result, the Dores held the football for more than 42 minutes.
And when it was all over, Vandy not only rushed the field, not only celebrated with its fans and basked in the win and cursed on live TV, but it had the gumption to stick it to Bama’s former coach, replaying a Saban sound bite in which he said the only easy venue in the SEC was at Vanderbilt.
NO WAY#Vandy played this quote from Nick Saban after the upset over Alabama:
“The only place that’s not hard to play in the SEC is Vanderbilt.” pic.twitter.com/QDfGufSQol
— Billy Derrick (@billyderrick10) October 5, 2024
Whichever staffer on Vanderbilt’s stadium ops crew dug up that clip in advance of the win needs to be carried down Broadway like a conquering hero.
It is fair to suggest this isn’t your father’s Vandy team (or, more accurately, the Vandy team from the last time you wore that sport coat hanging in your closet). Lea has these Dores playing good football. Pavia is a swashbuckling underdog who’s entirely deserving of Manziel’s mantle. And as is required by federal law to note in situations like this, there are no easy weeks in the SEC, despite Saban’s now-infamous hot take.
But make no mistake, this was a genuine one-in-a-million outcome — not because Vandy is bad or Alabama is preordained or because this weekend seemed so entirely fluke-proof. All of those things could be true and they still wouldn’t capture the magnitude of what happened.
This was an outcome that a thousand monkeys typing on a thousand typewriters for a thousand years couldn’t script on accident because things like this simply don’t happen. It was the Washington Generals toppling the Harlem Globetrotters, Charlie Brown kicking the football and Dabo Swinney taking a transfer all rolled into one.
In other words, things like this don’t happen in any universe. None but this one, on this beautiful blue marble on this particular Saturday on a field in Nashville that even Saban didn’t take seriously.
Lucky for us, it’s the universe we’re all living in, and we get to go along for the ride.
Jump to:
Tennessee tumbles
Miami survives again
ACC troubles
Army/Navy 5-0
Gift trash talking
Vibe shifts
Under the radar
Heisman
Down go the Vols
The SEC opened Saturday with four undefeated teams and ended it with just one.
This wasn’t the week for No. 4 Tennessee to lay an egg against Arkansas, because it really opened the door to some jokes from its in-state neighbors who toppled Alabama earlier in the day.
Vanderbilt fans watching Tennessee struggle with Arkansas pic.twitter.com/lVLpJXqrI6
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 6, 2024
Tennessee couldn’t do anything in the passing game, with hyped quarterback Nico Iamaleava completing just 17 of 29 throws for 158 yards. Arkansas got plenty of QB Taylen Green, but he left with an injury in the fourth quarter, putting backup Malachi Singleton in position to play hero.
Singleton had a 13-yard completion and an 11-yard touchdown run on the game-winning drive, scoring with 1:17 to play.
It was proof of the important lesson offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino had taught this Arkansas team: When you fall off your bike — then get fired under embarrassing circumstances, spend a decade bouncing around various jobs then help Jimbo Fisher get fired at Texas A&M — you always get back up on that bike and sooner or later, all will be forgiven.
Miami escapes again
The Bermuda Triangle of college football chaos exists in Berkeley, California.
On one leg of the triangle is Coastal chaos. On another is “Pac-12 After Dark.” And on the third, ACC officiating. Mix them all together and what you get is the utter insanity that was Miami–Cal.
The Golden Bears hosted “College GameDay” based on the strength of their darkly subversive Twitter presence and a deeply talented defense, and both showed out early. Jaydn Ott scored two first-half touchdowns, making his case for what the Calgorithm calls the Heisperson Trophy, while the Bears’ D utterly frustrated Cam Ward and the Canes’ offense. By the time Cal kicker Ryan Coe drilled a 37-yard field goal with 14:13 left in the game, Miami was down by 20 points and its No. 8 ranking — and playoff hopes — seemed on shaky ground.
That’s when Ward came to life.
In the fourth quarter, he completed 15 of 22 passes for 238 yards, ran for another 39 yards and accounted for three touchdowns.
0:27
Cam Ward gives Miami late hope with resilient 24-yard score
Cam Ward keeps Miami within striking distance of Cal after powering into the end zone on a 24-yard rush late in the fourth quarter.
And yet the game was not without controversy. Trailing by six points, Miami looked to force a Cal punt with 1:50 to play, but linebacker Wesley Bissainthe collided with Cal’s Fernando Mendoza on the tackle, smacking helmets along the way.
Replay looked to show a clear targeting, but no flag was thrown on the field. The booth reviewed the play, but allowed the non-call to stand, despite what looked like clear evidence of a launch and a hit with the crown of the helmet.
This follows a similar incident last week in which Miami prevailed only after review overturned a Hail Mary touchdown by Virginia Tech, despite minimal video evidence.
A targeting call would’ve almost certainly won the game for Cal, but instead, a punt followed and Ward delivered a 77-yard connection with Xavier Restrepo on the next offensive play.
Cal fans were rightly furious. Unfortunately, no one in Berkeley knew a good way to signal their disapproval of a decision made by a more authoritative enemy.
Miami still tried to upend its own good fortune with an atrocious unsportsmanlike penalty in the red zone. But Ward delivered a checkdown throw just inches from crossing the line of scrimmage that picked up a key first down, and he then hit Elijah Arroyo for the go-ahead touchdown.
The result: Miami is 6-0, the ACC review booth is 2-0 and Cal is going to invent an app that somehow brings down the entire college football industrial complex as punishment.
Other ACC powers struggling
Louisville’s defense couldn’t find a solution for Kevin Jennings and SMU on Saturday, falling 34-27. Meanwhile, Boston College got its starting QB, Thomas Castellanos, back from injury but blew a 14-0 lead and lost to Virginia 24-14. Wake Forest managed its first ACC win of the year, erasing a 10-point deficit to beat NC State 34-30.
And then there’s Florida State, a school whose fans are going through some things right now.
— no context college football (@nocontextcfb) October 6, 2024
In the Billable Hours Bowl, the two teams suing to leave the ACC faced off in Tallahassee, and while FSU occasionally showed signs of life with Brock Glenn at QB, the end result was still the same.
In fact, here’s a quick recap of what happened in the game.
Clemson: Hey, the SEC’s on the phone. They said they’re ready to expand.
Florida State: Really?
Clemson: No. They said they don’t need you. They have Vandy.
With the Tigers’ victory, Dabo Swinney became the winningest coach in ACC history, passing Bobby Bowden on the field that bears his name. Swinney did it, too, by taking the same number of transfers as Bowden.
Also Cade Klubnik threw for two touchdowns and Phil Mafah ran for 154 yards in what was an appropriately ugly 29-13 decision.
So, to recap where the ACC stands: Florida State, NC State, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Louisville all have multiple losses already and sport a combined record of 13-16.
Meanwhile Pitt, Virginia, Syracuse and SMU are a combined 18-3.
You can take the Coastal out of the ACC, but you can’t take the ACC away from the chaos.
Sluggish day for the top teams
No. 3 Ohio State: Had little trouble swatting away Iowa 35-7. Still, it had to feel like a loss for the Buckeyes, who are the first ranked team to allow points to Iowa’s offense since Michigan surrendered two touchdowns in a win over the Hawkeyes in Week 5 of 2022.
No. 5 Georgia: Responded to last week’s loss to Alabama with an entirely reasonable 31-13 win over Auburn. Carson Beck was 23-of-28 passing, and Trevor Etienne scored twice, and yet it was hardly the offensive performance that offered significant reassurance this uneven start to the season is insignificant. More than anything, Georgia wore down Auburn rather than delivering any sort of statement. If anything, it was a bit embarrassing not to get a single Payton Thorne interception. Typically, Auburn is giving those away with the purchase of any large soft drink.
No. 6 Oregon: Beat Michigan State 31-10 on Friday, despite two red zone picks by Dillon Gabriel. It was another utterly dispassionate performance from the 5-0 Ducks, who’ve basically become college football’s version of “According to Jim” — on every week, with roughly the same plot, perfectly successful without a single memorable storyline.
No. 12 Ole Miss: Cruised past South Carolina 27-3, but those third-down woes that cost the Rebels last week against Kentucky were still on display Saturday. Ole Miss was 3-of-13 on third down (and 1-of-3 on fourth) against the Gamecocks, and Jaxson Dart went without a touchdown pass against an unranked team for the first time in two years. It was entirely meh.
No. 16 Iowa State: Flirted with disaster against Baylor, but because Matt Campbell is a nice guy, the Cyclones ripped out Dave Aranda’s heart by late in the third quarter rather than waiting until the final moments of the game. Rocco Becht remains the sport’s best player named Rocco, throwing for 277 yards and two touchdowns in a 43-21 win.
The end result: Few top teams looked good, but at least these guys got to have a good laugh at Alabama’s expense anyway.
Army, Navy 5-0
In the fall of 1945, Army and Navy defeated fascism then both started 5-0 on the football field.
That was the Greatest Generation.
In the fall of 2024, Army and Navy are again 5-0 for the first time in 79 years, making this at least a pretty good generation despite otherwise being ruined by TikTok and avocado toast.
Navy demolished Air Force 34-7 on Saturday, with Blake Horvath rushing for 115 yards and two touchdowns and at least six good “zoomies” taunts at his opposition.
Not to be outdone, Army went to Tulsa and dominated 49-7 behind 250 combined passing and rushing yards and two touchdowns from Bryson Daily. Daily completed all five of his pass attempts, averaging 28 yards per throw, which served as a reminder to people in Michigan that it’s OK to employ the forward pass from time to time.
What does it mean that Army and Navy are off to their best combined start to the season since World War II in the larger scope of international diplomacy? It’s impossible to say at this point, but just to be safe, it’s probably a bad idea to invade Poland in the next few weeks.
A&M gets last laugh
Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels combined to run for 172 yards and five touchdowns on 21 carries as Texas A&M routed No. 9 Missouri 41-10 on Saturday.
Missouri QB Brady Cook completed just 13 of 31 passes, an ugly performance somewhat predicted by the gift wideout Theo Wease Jr. received in his hotel room upon arrival in College Station.
Mizzou WR Theo Wease Jr. received this message after arriving to the team hotel in College Station…
“Get used to this blanket … It will be real tomorrow.”
Texas A&M CB Will Lee III is officially the new king of trash talk pic.twitter.com/wVvoJp8zaa
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) October 5, 2024
Now, we should point out this is technically a throw, not a blanket. It says so right there on the label. And, as such, Wease did actually haul in Missouri’s only touchdown of the day. Next time, Will Lee III should consider a nice duvet cover.
Still, Lee’s gift was an undeniably great bit of smack talk, and we’d like to think more players will follow his lead by leaving gifts for the opposition before the game — a bag of potatoes with a note, “enjoy the sack; there’ll be plenty more tomorrow” or a box of Bisquick with the message “prepare to get pancaked” or a bag of those hint-of-lime Tostitos. No note with that last one. Just impossible not to eat the whole bag, thus leaving your opponent listless and dehydrated for game day. Those are good chips.
Week 6 vibe shifts
Each week, there are big wins and painful losses that help shape the story of the season. But there also are more subtle shifts — small movements in the larger ecosystem that don’t garner headlines but can prove to be just as important. We work to capture them here.
Trending down: Billy Napier seat temperature
Florida is officially over .500, and it won’t finish as the worst Power Four team in the state. Given that the expectation for the Gators after an early loss to Miami involved a slew of defeats, a likely coaching change and a photo surfacing of a naked Napier hugging a shark on the back of a boat, this is nothing short of a massive success.
The Gators toppled UCF 24-13 on Saturday, giving Napier consecutive wins versus Power Four opponents for just the third time in his Florida tenure.
Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway were near flawless again, completing 23 of 28 passes for 229 yards. Over their past two games, they’ve tossed just six incompletions on 56 passes.
Honestly, what are the odds we could write that many consecutive positive things about the Gators this year?
Trending up: The apocalypse
It was 97 degrees at kickoff for Rutgers-Nebraska on Saturday, enough heat to make the corn in the stands go best with movie-theater butter.
It also was enough to stifle most of the offense. Neither team managed more than 264 yards, and Huskers QB Dylan Raiola was just 13-of-27 with a pick. But two Rutgers turnovers and a stout defensive performance from Nebraska secured an ugly 14-7 win.
Given the extreme temperatures and the fact that Nebraska won a one-score game (8-26 in games decided by a TD or less since 2019), coach Matt Rhule announced afterward that, in fact, the end times were upon us and we should seek shelter and hug our loved ones.
Holding steady: Hoosier State football
Indiana’s rollicking start to the 2024 season continued unabated Saturday, as the Hoosiers dismissed Northwestern 41-24 while also leaving a pretty unimaginative three-star review on the lakefront Airbnb where the Wildcats are playing this season.
If you had Indiana as the first team to qualify for bowl eligibility in 2024, congratulations. You’re a winner. After making just five bowls in the past 30 years, Indiana is now 6-0 and virtually guaranteed to beat Kentucky 12-9 in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
That hot start has to be frustrating for Purdue, which can usually count on Indiana to be so embarrassing no one notices how bad the Boilermakers are. Sadly, Purdue’s misery is on full display in 2024. On Saturday, the Boilermakers lost 52-6 to Wisconsin, mustering just 216 yards of offense and converting just 1 of 11 third-down tries. They’re 1-4 on the year, the lone win coming against Indiana State (which didn’t have Larry Bird so really never had a shot) and has now lost each of its four games by at least 17.
Trending up: QB changes in Ann Arbor
Michigan made its second QB change of the season, benching Alex Orji in favor of Jack Tuttle midway through its game against Washington. But the end result was the same: The passing game struggled, and a late pick proved the difference in a 27-17 Huskies win.
Tuttle threw for 98 yards, which believe it or not is the fourth most by a Michigan QB this season, but his interception with 3:24 to play allowed Washington to ice the game with a late field goal.
Michigan threw for just 113 yards in the game — 20 of which came on the final drive — its fourth straight with 134 or less through the air. The last time a top-20 team did that in four straight was Georgia Tech in 2014 and 2015 when it ran the triple option. That, by the way, might not be such a bad idea for the Wolverines moving forward.
Trending down: Lincoln Riley narratives
It’s not exactly Vandy-over-Bama weird, but USC’s defense has been good and the Trojans are struggling because they can’t score points.
USC was again reminded that football in the Big Ten is intended to be ugly and slow — and occasionally results in winning a trophy shaped like a jar of pickles or a bronze bedpan that once belonged to William Henry Harrison — falling at Minnesota 24-17 after turning the ball over three times.
The Golden Gophers scored on each of their final two drives, while USC wasted a 17-10 win with two picks and a three-and-out in their final three drives.
Honestly, Riley didn’t bolt Oklahoma to escape coaching in the SEC just so he could lose Big Ten games like this. Very disappointing.
Trending up: Last year’s new FBS teams
On Friday, Jacksonville State pulled a nifty trick in the second half of a 63-24 win over Kennesaw State.
The Gamecocks had just five possessions in the second half, and yet they scored a total of 42 points.
Some basic math would suggest that’s six touchdowns, which is accurate. Not only did Jacksonville State find the end zone on each of its five possessions, it also had a 30-yard pick-six.
It’s just the fourth time in the playoff era a team has scored 42 or more points with five or fewer drives in the second half of a game. Oddly, San Diego State did it earlier this season against FCS Texas A&M-Commerce but only scored four offensive touchdowns, adding two on defense.
Jacksonville State isn’t the only second-year FBS team to add a big win in Week 6 though. Sam Houston beat UTEP like it was former Ohio Sen. William Stanbery, 41-21. Sam Houston is now 5-1 on the season, with its only loss coming at the Battle of Horseshoe Bend. Or maybe UCF. We only skimmed the Sam Houston Wikipedia page.
Trending down: Dilfer’s dimes
Tulane hung seven dimes and a penny on Trent Dilfer’s UAB team Saturday with a 71-20 win that moves the Blazers to 1-4 on the season. They are just 5-12 under Dilfer, including eight losses by 20 or more. Only Temple and Kent State have more such defeats during that span.
Under-the-radar drive of the week
Normally, we don’t put a spotlight on a single drive in a game. But this week, we felt it necessary to highlight North Carolina’s slow decline.
Leading 7-3 against undefeated Pitt, the Heels ran 19 plays, including two fourth-down conversions, covering 81 yards and chewing up 9:03 of clock.
The result: Squat. Nada. Zilch.
A Jacolby Criswell throw on fourth-and-2 at the Pitt 9 fell incomplete, making it just the second drive of the season of 19 plays or more not to end with points. (Western Kentucky had a 21-play scoreless drive against Alabama, so at least UNC can say it has something in common with Alabama.)
The Tar Heels still had chances to win, but that only served to provide just enough hope to make the inevitable ending — a 34-24 Pitt win — all that much more infuriating for coach Mack Brown, who is approximately one more loss away from ripping off his shirt, shouting incoherently and running into the woods to live with a family of badgers.
On a more positive note, Pitt is 5-0 for the first time since 1991 — a time when Curtis Martin roamed the backfield, Pirates baseball wasn’t a national embarrassment and Barry Bonds’ head didn’t have its own satellites. And Eli Holstein is the first Pitt QB to win his first five career starts since Dan Marino, who would go on to have a successful career as a glove salesman.
Under-the-radar play of the week
Penn State continues to be the Big Ten team that wins every game against noncontending opponents in the least noteworthy way possible after Saturday’s 27-11 dispatching of UCLA. But while the bulk of this game could’ve been scripted in advance like a WWE match, there was one small wrinkle that made the whole affair worthwhile.
The Nittany Lions sent 350-pound offensive lineman Olaivavega Ioane in motion, and he delivered by possibly sending UCLA D-lineman Luke Schuermann backward in time.
An offensive lineman in motion is a scary sight 😳
Still not over this hit from @PennStateFball‘s Olaivavega Ioane 🥞😱 pic.twitter.com/M6NN7eoIqY
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 5, 2024
The first hit, of course, is monstrous, and that’s the point in which Schuermann’s buddies should be telling him, “Bro, just stay down.” Unfortunately, Schuermann ignored the fact that he has an entire family somewhere who cares about him, and he got back up for more.
This was, in many ways, a nice microcosm of UCLA’s shift to the Big Ten — a normal dude wrestling an F-350. The Bruins are 1-4 overall and 0-3 in conference, and they have led for a grand total of 2:16 this season — the final 56 seconds against Hawaii and for 80 seconds in the first half against LSU.
The takeaway: LSU is the worst team UCLA has played this year.
Under-the-radar game of the week
In most weeks, watching a game between UConn and Temple would be punishment for shoplifting in some more draconian jurisdictions. But on Saturday, it was actually pretty fun.
There were seven different lead changes in the game, including UConn going up 23-20 with 3:46 to play. Temple, however, had a shot to win it on a fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line and 3 seconds to play, but Tyler Douglas fumbled on an attempted “Brotherly Shove,” and UConn recovered for a scoop and score.
TEMPLE TRIED THE BROTHERLY SHOVE FOR THE WIN AND THE BALL POPS OUT!! UCONN SCOOP AND SCORE FOR THE WIN!! pic.twitter.com/QMNkSciLGA
— Sickos Committee (@SickosCommittee) October 5, 2024
This is a good reminder to the folks at Temple: While you are located in Philadelphia, you are not the Philadelphia Eag– what’s that? By 17 to the Bucs, you say? And they’ve lost seven of their past 10? Ah. Well then. Carry on, Temple.
Heisman Five
Consider Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia an honorary Heisman winner, regardless of his actual standing in the race. In fact, let’s just change the trophy to look like him yelling four-letter words into a microphone.
1. Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter
Colorado was off in Week 6, though somehow Hunter still got 104 snaps.
2. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty
Let’s check in on Jeanty’s first carry of the game against Utah State in Week 6.
ASHTON JEANTY’S FIRST CARRY TODAY 🔥 @BroncoSportsFB pic.twitter.com/utOfPL02gv
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 5, 2024
Honestly, it’s time teams consider just negotiating a deal with Boise State before kickoff. Just go ahead and assume Jeanty is going for 220 yards and four touchdowns, let him watch from the sideline to preserve everyone’s dignity and spot the Broncos 28 to open the game.
3. The ACC review booth — er, Miami QB Cam Ward
For the second week in a row, the ACC officials stole the storyline of an incredible ending, but also for the second straight week, Ward was a hero. He finished with 437 passing yards and three total touchdowns. It’s Ward’s seventh straight game — dating back to last season at Washington State — in which he threw for 300 yards and accounted for three touchdowns. Only WKU’s Bailey Zappe (8 straight) had a longer streak in the past 16 years. Assuming the ACC doesn’t review that, it’s a pretty impressive feat.
4 (tie). Army QB Bryson Daily and Navy QB Blake Horvath
Two weeks ago, an Army fan emailed us and made the case that Daily belonged on this list on account of his exceptional start to the season for the undefeated Black Knights, so we put him at No. 5 last week.
Then a Navy fan reached out and lambasted us for adding Daily while overlooking Horvath, whose numbers are even better for the undefeated Midshipmen.
Never let it be said we aren’t pushovers for peer pressure — particularly when that pressure comes from veterans.
Now, if anyone from the Merchant Marines wants to make the case for their QB, however, you’re going to need our Venmo to make it happen.
5. Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith
It’s not even clear Smith is the best freshman wide receiver in the country; Alabama’s Ryan Williams had another nice game Saturday. But one guy lost to Vandy and the other one did this.
UNREAL. JEREMIAH SMITH DID IT AGAIN! pic.twitter.com/dHHGgdfeG5
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 5, 2024
Once Urban Meyer stopped paying the coaching equivalent of Uncle Rico to oversee receivers, the Buckeyes have churned out one elite prospect after another, but there’s a real chance Smith ends up the best of the bunch.
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The All-Stars who are halfway to history in 2025
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2 hours agoon
July 15, 2025By
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This year, the MLB All-Star Game isn’t just a collection of the game’s biggest stars, but a glimpse at baseball history in the making.
The 2025 Midsummer Classic marks the unofficial midway point of some of the greatest seasons the sport has ever seen.
Will Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh — aka the Big Dumper — set a new standard for slugging catchers? Will Shohei Ohtani score more runs in a season than any living person has ever seen? Will Aaron Judge … top Aaron Judge?
As Major League Baseball’s best convene in Atlanta, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield break down 11 players who are halfway to history. For each player, ESPN MLB reporters Jorge Castillo and Jesse Rogers asked one of their fellow All-Stars to weigh in on their accomplishments, as they get set to take the field together at Truist Park.
Cal Raleigh: Greatest season for a catcher — ever
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Well, we can add Home Run Derby champion to the list after Raleigh’s impressive showing Monday night. With 38 home runs through 96 team games, Raleigh is on pace for 64, which would break Judge’s American League record of 62 set in 2022. That’s the big one. There are a whole bunch of other records in play: most home runs by a switch hitter (Mickey Mantle, 54); most home runs by a primary catcher (Salvador Perez, 48); most multihomer games in a season (Raleigh has eight, the record is 11); and even highest catcher WAR in a season (Mike Piazza with 8.7 bWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 8.4; Buster Posey with 9.8 fWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 10.4). In other words, he could have the greatest season ever for a catcher.
How he’s doing it: Raleigh has always been better against right-handed pitching, but he has been absolutely crushing lefties in 2025, hitting .337/.385/.861 with 16 home runs in only 101 at-bats. Overall, he also has been much better against velocity. From 2022 to 2024, he slugged .418 against pitches 93 mph or faster; this year, he’s slugging .664. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “It’s wild. I mean, he’s having a crazy year and it’s awesome that he’s doing it from behind the plate. And what he’s doing is unbelievable. It’s hard to describe. It’s amazing to see.” — Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman
Aaron Judge: Most total bases since the Great Depression
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Judge closed out the first half with a quiet day against the Chicago Cubs but is still on pace to record 435 total bases this season. You could pick any one of a dozen categories in which Judge is on a historic pace, but this simple old-school measure will do just fine. The record is held by Babe Ruth (457 in 1921), so Judge would have to somehow pick up the pace to surpass that. But 435 would still be epic. The last player to reach that number was Jimmie Foxx in 1932.
How he’s doing it: Judge has become more aggressive at the plate without sacrificing contact or power. But it’s not only ball-in-play volume: He’s hitting an incredible .425 when getting the bat on the ball, which fuels his MLB-leading .355 batting average. That BABIP would be the third-highest ever if Judge maintained it, which obviously affects the total bases column. So too does Judge’s intentional walks pace (41). He’d be only the fourth player to top 40. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He started off hot this year, which normally in years past, he doesn’t start off hot like he did this year. And now you see it. He always finishes strong. I mean, I don’t know what he ends up with. Hopefully he hits like 70 homers. That’d be sick.” — New York Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon
Shohei Ohtani: One run scored for every game
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Although his pace has slowed a bit the past couple of weeks, Ohtani has scored 89 runs in 94 games, giving him a chance at a run scored per game. Ohtani had been on pace for 160 runs, which only Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig have done since 1900. He’s still on pace for 150 runs, which only Ted Williams and Jeff Bagwell have done since World War II. The last player with more runs scored than games played, with at least 100 games played: Rickey Henderson in 1985 (146 runs in 143 games). If that’s not enough to impress you, there is the chance for a second straight 50-homer season and a fourth career MVP award. If the latter happens, he’ll join Barry Bonds as the only player with more than three MVP awards.
How he’s doing it: It helps to be a leadoff man with power, as Ohtani leads the National League in both plate appearances and home runs. The first three months, Ohtani also had a great trio hitting behind him in Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, but his runs scored pace has dropped off in July as he has hit just .175, and Betts and Freeman have also slumped. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “As his teammate and fellow competitor, to see what he does on both sides of the field, it’s incredible. How much power he has as a hitter. He’s got 30-plus homers already at the break. He’s hitting .300 or whatever. And, yeah, he’s going out there on the mound and throwing 102, striking out the side. And these are his rehab games. He’s not even all the way back yet, full-go yet. It’s incredible to watch. Fortunately, I get to see all the work he puts in every day, which is really cool. It’s really special what he’s doing.” — Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith
Paul Skenes: Two sub-2.00 ERA seasons before turning 25
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skenes’ ERA at the break is an NL-best 2.01. His career mark is 1.98 over 43 starts. There is all kinds of history around this level of stifling run prevention. As it stands, Skenes joins Ed Walsh, Addie Joss and Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown with at least 40 starts and a sub-2.00 career ERA in the AL or NL. If Skenes drops his 2025 number below 2.00, he’d be the 31st pitcher to have two or more sub-2.00 ERA seasons of at least 20 starts. Only two of those pitchers did it by age 23: Walter Johnson and Ed Reulbach, both more than 100 years ago.
How he’s doing it: Skenes’ strikeout rate (9.7 per nine innings) is down 1.8 from last year. Yet his FIP (an NL-best 2.41) is actually better because of his league-best homer rate (0.4 per nine innings). Simply put, Skenes is learning how to manage the pure dominance of his arsenal, revving it up when needed. Skenes is not exactly pitching to contact — his stuff is just too good to not miss a lot of bats — but his pitch efficiency is better, and that’s getting him deeper into games. His style has evolved, but one big thing has remained steady: Nobody can score off him. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “Obviously, the first thing that stands out is his stuff, right? And the second thing you look at is the composure. He’s kind of new to the league and just from watching some of his preparation, his composure on the mound, I feel like that’s what makes him successful. He started to add a couple of new pitches to his arsenal and it’s going to make him tougher. He’s got the military background, so I think that’s where he gets a lot of his discipline and everything from. He’s challenging, but it is fun to compete against him.” — St. Louis Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan
Tarik Skubal: Top five strikeout-to-walk season of all time
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skubal has struck out 9.56 batters for every one he has walked. Only four qualifying pitchers have ever done better: Phil Hughes (11.63, 2014), Bret Saberhagen (11.00, 1994), Cliff Lee (10.28, 2010) and Curt Schilling (9.58, 2002). The leaderboard is dominated by wild-card era pitchers, with its heightened whiff rates. But according to FanGraphs’ plus-statistics, which compare numbers to league averages, Skubal’s index of 368 ranks 18th all time. His mastery works in any era.
How he’s doing it: Skubal has already had two games this season in which he has struck out 13 batters on fewer than 100 pitches. Simply put, his command keeps him in the zone more than any qualifying pitcher (49.7%, per FanGraphs). But it also allows him to pitch outside of it on his terms. To wit: Skubal also leads the majors in inducing swings on pitches out of the zone (37.2%). It’s a lethal combination. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “Even on game days, he’s working before the game like he’s not pitching that day. Even on the off days, he’s at the field doing something. He does a whole routine. I faced him in spring training and was looking for one pitch — when that pitch came, I didn’t hit it. He knows what hitters are looking for.” — Detroit Tigers outfielder Javier Baez
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Before the 2023 season, there had been only four 40-homer/40-steal seasons in big league history, and the 40/50 club was memberless. Now Crow-Armstrong is on a 42-homer, 46-steal pace at the break. He could join Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 homers, 73 steals in 2023) and Shohei Ohtani (54 homers, 59 steals last season) in one or both clubs, giving us a three-year run of expanding membership. This one would be the most stunning of all. PCA entered the season with 10 homers, 29 steals and an 83 OPS+ in his career. His rise has been flat-out stunning.
How he’s doing it: The steals part of Crow-Armstrong’s game was already there, though he’s picked up the pace in 2025, already matching his 27 steals from last season. Any time he reaches safely, he’s a threat to take an extra base. That is unless he’s trotting around the bags after mashing yet another homer. Crow-Armstrong is hitting the ball harder more often, getting more balls in the air and pulling it more frequently. All of this could explain an isolated power uptick, but nothing really can explain the degree to which PCA has lifted off. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He’s a much better defender than me. He has a much better arm. He’s a really complete player. I don’t think I would have guessed he would have the power numbers he’s showing this year, but I guess people would have said that about me too. His ability to pull the ball in the air has been the difference for him, I think. He hits the ball so hard, all over the stadium.” — Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll
Junior Caminero: 40 home runs in age-21 season
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: In his first full season in the majors, Caminero enters the All-Star break with 23 home runs in the 97 games the Tampa Bay Rays have played, giving him a season pace of 38. Though he turned 22 earlier this month, Caminero is in his age-21 season, so he can join Eddie Mathews (47 in 1953) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 in 2019) as the only players to reach 40 home runs at that age.
How he’s doing it: Caminero has the second-quickest bat in the majors via Statcast’s bat tracking measurements and he uses that bat speed to punish fastballs. He’s slugging .692 against four-seam fastballs — and .793 against four-seam fastballs 95-plus mph. He has received some help from the Rays’ temporary home stadium, George Steinbrenner Field, hitting .316 with 14 home runs at home. That’s worth noting as the Rays will have a road-heavy schedule through the end of August. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “He’s a special talent. I mean, his bat speed’s insane. I saw him in spring training [with the Rays], basically, but, yeah, he’s a special talent. Hard-working kid. I’m excited to watch him. They’re mature at-bats. He came up, I was hurt during the playoffs in ’23, and I thought he had some of the most mature, calm at-bats I’d seen for a young kid. Especially to come up in the playoffs, he didn’t let the situation get too big. I think he’s going to be here for a long time, a lot of years.” — San Diego Padres (and former Tampa Bay Rays) reliever Jason Adam
Corbin Carroll: 40 home runs, 20 triples, 20 stolen bases
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: The third-year speedster is back in the All-Star Game after failing to be selected last year, and showing again why he’s one of the most exciting players in the majors. He has an outside shot at becoming the first player with 40 home runs, 20 triples and 20 stolen bases in the same season. Yes, that’s a bit of statistical free-for-all, but it displays Carroll’s power, speed and hustle. Those odds were hurt when he sat out a couple of weeks because of a chip fracture in his left wrist, but in his first 79 games, he had 21 home runs, 10 triples and 11 stolen bases. Even if those numbers are out of reach, he could be the third member of the 35/15/20 club, joining Chuck Klein and Willie Mays.
How he’s doing it: We mentioned hustle, because the triples are the key category here, and Carroll is the best triples hitter in the majors in a long time, hitting 10 as a rookie in 2023 and 14 in 2024, leading the NL both seasons. He also has tweaked his swing and is hitting the ball harder this season and hitting it more often in the air, so he should soar past his previous career high of 25 home runs. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “There is no hole, really. It’s hard to find new ways to get him out. He’s one of the best in baseball. He’s so quick and twitchy. I don’t get many fastballs by him.” — San Francisco Giants right-hander Logan Webb
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Witt’s doubles pace has ebbed a little, perhaps in part because some of the balls that were swelling his two-bagger column earlier have been leaving the yard of late. Still, Witt is on pace for 53 doubles, which would be the most by an American Leaguer in six years. That number would also challenge Hal McRae’s franchise record of 54 doubles set in 1977. Witt’s overall numbers aren’t quite as spectacular as last season, but he remains a top-five MVP candidate in the AL. Witt hasn’t gone on a true heater yet this season, but MLB pitchers beware: He has come out of the All-Star break in each of the past two seasons and gone on an extended tear.
How he’s doing it: Everything about Witt’s game — durability, aggressiveness, contact, swing plain, speed, home venue — suggests a player who is annually going to rank near the top of the charts in doubles, among many other categories. If only he didn’t hit so many triples and homers. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “I can’t get him out. It’s just a tough at-bat. And [he] plays the game really, really hard. Some of the stars look cool and play it a little bit slower. Bobby is always playing the game really hard. A single is a victory against him, but he’s going to turn it into a double most of the time.” — Detroit Tigers right-hander Casey Mize
Kyle Tucker: 30 home runs, 40 stolen bases, 120 runs scored
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: With 17 home runs, 22 stolen bases and 68 runs scored, Tucker is showing Cubs fans the all-around brilliance that earned him a fourth consecutive All-Star selection. That puts him on pace to join the exclusive club of 30 homers, 40 stolen bases and 120 runs — which has only 11 members (with Bobby Bonds having done it twice). At a minimum, Tucker would love to join the 30/30 club, which he just missed in 2023 with 29 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
How he’s doing it: Tucker’s career high in runs scored is 97, so joining the explosive Cubs offense has helped in that department. So has moving up in the lineup: He has mostly hit second for the Cubs after often hitting fifth for the Houston Astros (at least until last season). He has been a little more aggressive stealing bases to give him a shot at 40, and does it with great success, getting caught only once so far. — Doolittle
An All-Star’s take: “He stays in there against lefties, knows how to use the whole field. And knows what a strike is. He stays in the zone a long time. I got lucky this year. It was the one game he missed. He’s one of the tougher left-handed outs.” — Washington Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore
Byron Buxton: The perfect stolen-base season
The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Buxton just hit for the cycle and — knock on wood — he has been healthy so far, so he’s on track for a career high in many categories, including his first 30-homer season. But the fun number: He’s 17-for-17 in stolen-base attempts. Only six players have swiped at least 20 bases in a season without getting caught, with Trea Turner’s 30-for-30 with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2023 the single-season high.
How he’s doing it: Buxton has always been a terrific high percentage base stealer, including a 29-for-30 mark in 2017 and a 90% success rate in his career, but the surprising thing about his 2025 totals is perhaps that he’s even stealing bases at all, given all the injuries in his career. It would be easy for the Minnesota Twins to just shut him down on the basepaths — much like the Los Angeles Angels did years ago with Mike Trout — but the 31-year-old Buxton is running more than he has since he was 23. — Schoenfield
An All-Star’s take: “He’s one of the best players in the game when he’s healthy and when he’s playing out there. I think the biggest thing I’ve noticed from him is that it seems like his internal clock is just at a pace this year. It’s not like it flashes where he’s going crazy and then he’s backing off. It’s consistent. It’s just that consistent heartbeat. It’s like he’s running a marathon at an insane pace. He’s going to run a sub-three-hour marathon or something. He’s cruising along and it’s just fun to watch him play.” — Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan
Sports
Is it the coach or the program? Ranking CFB coaches while factoring in expectations
Published
5 hours agoon
July 15, 2025By
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Bill ConnellyJul 15, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
Back in May, ESPN’s team of college football reporters voted on the sport’s best coaches for 2025. The results were about as you would expect: Start with the three active guys who have most recently won national titles (Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ohio State’s Ryan Day, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney), move on to guys with recent top-five finishes or national title game appearances (Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, Penn State’s James Franklin), then squeeze in a couple of long-term overachievers at the end (Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell).
The rankings made plenty of sense, but I couldn’t help but notice that the top eight coaches on the list all work for some of the richest, most well-supported programs in the country. There are some epic pressures associated with leading these programs — just ask Day — but there are also major advantages. It might only take a good head coach to do great things in those jobs, while at programs with smaller alumni bases or lesser historic track records, it might take a great coach to do merely good things. They’re such different jobs that it’s almost impossible to even know how to compare the performance of, say, Matt Campbell to Steve Sarkisian. Could Campbell have led Texas to back-to-back CFP semifinals? Could Sark have brought ISU its first two AP top-15 finishes?
The May rankings made me want to see if there were a way to apply stats to the conversation. If you think about it, we’re basically measuring two things when we’re gauging coach performance: overall quality and quality relative to the expectations of the job. I thought it would be fun to come up with a blend of those two things and see what the results told us.
Performance versus expectation
Gauging overall performance is easy enough. You could simply look at win percentage, and it would tell you quite a bit. From 2015 to 2024, the active coaches with the best FBS win percentages (minimum 30 games) were Day (.870), Lanning (.854), Swinney (.850) and Smart (.847). All ranked high in the May rankings. I tend to want to get fancy and use my SP+ ratings whenever possible, and they tell a similar tale. Looking at average SP+ ratings for the past decade, the top active coaches are Day (30.4), Smart (27.0), Lanning (22.3), Swinney (21.9), Franklin (20.3) and Freeman (19.0). They’re all in the May top 10 too.
Again, though, all of those coaches are employed by college football royalty. (Granted, Swinney gets bonus points for helping Clemson turn into college football royalty, but still.) Isn’t it more impressive to win 11 regular-season games at Indiana, as Curt Cignetti did in 2024, than to go 10-4 like Swinney did? Isn’t it probably harder to finish 12th in SP+ at SMU, as Rhett Lashlee did in 2024, than to finish fifth like Franklin did?
I’ve begun to incorporate teams’ performance against long-term averages into my preseason SP+ projections, and it seems we could use a very similar concept to evaluate coach performances. For each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team’s SP+ rating for that season to the school’s average from the 20 previous years. (If the school is newer to FBS and doesn’t have a 20-year average, we can use whatever average exists to date. And for a program’s first FBS season, we can simply compare the team’s SP+ rating to the overall average for first-year programs.)
By this method, the 10 best single-season coaching performances of the past 20 years include Art Briles at Baylor in 2013-14, Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in 2010, Mark Mangino at Kansas in 2007, Bobby Petrino at Louisville in 2006, Greg Schiano at Rutgers in 2006 and Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina in 2020 — legendary seasons of overachievement — plus perhaps lesser-remembered performances such as Gary Andersen at Utah State in 2012, Matt Wells at Utah State in 2018 and Brian Kelly at Cincinnati in 2007.
As far as single-season overachievement goes, that’s a pretty good list. And if we look at a longer-term sample — coaches who have led FBS programs for at least nine of the past 20 years — here are the 15 best performance versus baseline averages.
(Note: I’m looking only at performances within the past 20 years, so Nick Saban’s work at LSU (2000-04) or Michigan State (1995-99), for instance, isn’t included. I also went with nine years instead of 10 so Smart’s current nine-year run at Georgia could be included in the sample.)
Best performance vs. historic baseline averages for the past 20 years (min. nine seasons):
1. Chris Petersen, Boise State (2006-13) and Washington (2014-19): +12.8 points above historic baseline
2. Art Briles, Houston (2005-07) and Baylor (2008-15): +12.8
3. Gary Pinkel, Missouri (2005-15): +12.5
4. Nick Saban, Alabama (2007-23): +10.7
5. Jeff Monken, Army (2014-24): +10.3
6. Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern (2014-15), Tulane (2016-23) and Houston (2024): +10.0
7. Lance Leipold, Buffalo (2015-20) and Kansas (2021-24): +9.5
8. Bobby Petrino, Louisville (2005-06), Arkansas (2008-11), Western Kentucky (2013) and Louisville (2014-18): +9.5
9. Gary Patterson, TCU (2005-21): +8.6
10. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford (2007-10) and Michigan (2015-23): +8.5
11. Blake Anderson, Arkansas State (2014-20) and Utah State (2021-23): +8.5
12. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (2005-15): +8.2
13. Greg Schiano, Rutgers (2005-11 and 2020-24): +7.8
14. Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky (2014-16), Purdue (2017-22) and Louisville (2023-24): +7.7
15. David Cutcliffe, Duke (2008-21): +7.7
If we are looking for pure overachievement and aren’t in the mood to reward coaches for winning at schools that always win, this is again a pretty good list. Petersen was spectacular at both Boise State and Washington, while Briles, Pinkel, Monken and Patterson all won big at schools that hadn’t won big in quite a while. (Monken, in fact, is still winning big.) Blake Anderson’s presence surprised me, but most of the names here are extremely well regarded. And Saban’s presence at No. 4, despite coaching at one of the bluest of blue-blood programs, is a pretty good indicator of just how special his reign at Alabama was.
Still, looking only at performance against expectations obviously sells coaches like Saban and Smart short. Saban is probably the best head coach in the sport’s history but ranks only fourth on the above list. Meanwhile, Smart has overachieved by only 6.0 points above the historic baseline in his nine seasons at Georgia thanks to the high bar predecessor Mark Richt set. But he has also won two national titles, overcoming Georgia’s history of falling just short and at least briefly surpassing Saban as well. If our goal is to measure coaching prowess, we need to account for raw quality too.
The best coaches of the past 20 years
If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating. We can debate the weights involved, but here’s what an overall rating looks like if we use 60% performance versus baseline and 40% SP+ average:
I always like to say that numbers make great starting points for a conversation, and this is a pretty good starting point. Anyone reading this would probably tweak this list to suit their own preferences, and while it probably isn’t surprising that Pinkel is in the top 20, seeing him fourth, ahead of Meyer, Harbaugh and others, is a bit jarring. (I promise that this Mizzou alum didn’t put his finger on the scales.) Regardless, this is a fun mix of guys who won big at big schools and guys who won pretty big at pretty big schools. That was the goal of the exercise.
Maybe the most confusing coach in this top 20 is Dabo Swinney. Clemson had enjoyed just one AP top-five finish in its history before he took over 16 years ago, and he has led the Tigers to 2 national titles, 6 top-five finishes and 7 CFP appearances. And while they haven’t had a true, title-caliber team in a few years, they’ve still won two of the past three ACC crowns. How is he only 10th?
The main culprit for Swinney’s lower-than-expected ranking is his recent performance — it has been inferior to both national title standards and his standards. Since we’re using a team’s performance against 20-year averages, a lot of this rating is basically comparing Swinney to himself, and he hasn’t quite measured up of late.
From 2012 to 2020, Swinney’s average rating was an incredible 17.0, which would have ranked second to only Saban on the list above. But his average over the past four seasons is only 3.6.
Part of what made Saban so impressive was how long he managed to clear the bar he himself was setting in Tuscaloosa. Per SP+, his best team was his 14th — the 2020 team that won his sixth and final title at Bama. While Swinney was basically matching Saban’s standard 12 years into their respective tenures, Saban continued at a particularly high level for at least three more years while Swinney fell off the pace.
Comparing Saban, Swinney and Smart year by year, we see that Smart was hitting Saban-esque levels seven seasons into his tenure, but his rating has fallen off each of the past two seasons. Even Saban slipped starting in Year 15, even though he still had nearly the best program in the sport for a couple more years.
The best coaches of 2025
Six of the top seven coaches on the list above are either retired or coaching in the NFL now, so let’s focus our gaze specifically on the guys who will be leading college teams out onto the field in 2025. Using the same 20-year sample as above — which cuts off the tenure of Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz but includes everything else — here’s how the current crop of FBS head coaches has performed at the FBS level. We’ll break this into two samples: the guys who have coached for at least four years in this sample and the guys who have coached between one and three years.
Our May top 10 list featured eight guys who have been head coaches for at least four years; all eight are represented on this list, including four of the top five. (Sarkisian has averaged a 13.8 rating over the past two seasons, which is a top-five level, but his overall run as head coach at Washington, USC and Texas has featured a number of ups and downs.)
Maybe the name that jumps out the most above is Josh Heupel. I think anyone would consider him a very good coach (he’s 37-15 overall), but he doesn’t exactly draw any “best in the game?” hype. He benefited from a positive situation at UCF, where he inherited a rising program from Scott Frost in 2019 and produced big ratings in his first couple of years on the job. But his average rating at Tennessee has been a solid 14.0 as well; the Volunteers had been up and down for years, but he has produced four top-20 SP+ ratings in a row and two top-10s in the past three years. He might not be getting the credit he deserves for that.
All in all, I enjoy this list. We’ve got mostly predictable names at the top, we’ve got some oldies but (mostly) goodies spread throughout, and we’ve got room for up-and-comers like Jeff Traylor too. This 60-40 approach probably doesn’t give enough respect to the Chris Creightons of the world — the Eastern Michigan coach has overachieved against EMU’s baseline by 7.2 points per season, which is a fantastic average, but at such a hard job, his Eagles have still averaged only a minus-14.4 SP+ rating during his tenure. Still, this is a mostly solid approach.
Now let’s talk about some small-sample all-stars.
Four of the top six of this list coached in the College Football Playoff last season, and while the guys ranked fifth and sixth made our May top 10 list, the guys who won big at SMU and Indiana, not Oregon and Notre Dame, take priority here. I was honestly floored that Curt Cignetti didn’t make our top 10 list; he led James Madison to one of the best FBS debuts ever, going 19-4 in 2022-23, then he moved to Bloomington and led Indiana — INDIANA! — to 11 wins in his first season there.
On this list, however, Rhett Lashlee tops even Cignetti. I’m not sure we’ve talked enough about the job he has done at SMU. He, too, inherited a rising program, as Sonny Dykes had done some of the nitty-gritty work in getting the Mustangs back on their feet (with help from an offensive coordinator named Rhett Lashlee). SMU hadn’t produced a top-50 ranking since 1985 before Dykes did so for three straight seasons (2019-21). But after holding steady in his first year replacing Dykes, Lashlee’s program has ignited: 12-2 and 24th in SP+ in 2023, then 11-3 and 12th in 2024. Looking specifically at the 2021-24 range, as the game has undergone so much change, Lashlee’s 16.8 average rating ranks second overall, behind only Smart (18.0) and ahead of Kiffin (15.1), Cignetti (15.0), Odom (15.0), Heupel (14.0) and Day (13.9).
Along with quite a few others here, Lashlee made my 2024 list of 30 coaches who would define the next decade; he’d definitely still be on the list — along with new additions like GJ Kinne and perhaps Fran Brown — if I remade that list today.
Sports
It’s MLB Home Run Derby Day! Predictions, live updates and takeaways
Published
17 hours agoon
July 15, 2025By
admin
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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