What does the next year hold for the Middle East?

Published

2 months ago

October 7, 2024

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No matter what political or military changes we see in the Middle East by 7 October 2025, it will certainly be a more fragmented region.

No individual power will create more coherence than the current state of affairs.

This level of conflict won’t last at this level of intensity for another year.

If Israel can’t win a short war, it can’t fight a long one. Its economy is too small, and the leadership’s hubris may prove to be a danger.

Follow latest: Israeli jets hitting Lebanon with ‘extensive strikes’

The conflict will most likely resolve itself into a grumbling, open-ended war on three or four different fronts.

The only big change that might occur is if there is a significant upsurge of violence on the West Bank.

In the present atmosphere, a lot of Israeli fundamentalists would use that as an excuse to grab the whole area and expel the Palestinians who live there now.

Israel probably calculates, especially the right wing in the country, that this would be the moment when they could do that and the world would not be able to stop them.

But it may well be that Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will not survive another year, even though he’s on a high at the moment.

And while it’s difficult to imagine any regime change in Iran that may alter the course of the conflict, Ayatollah Khamenei is in trouble.

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His bluff has been called pretty thoroughly, with his strategy of manoeuvring through low-risk proxies in order to pressurise Israel and the West. Those proxies are being effectively dismantled by Israel.

This has left the regime losing face with its supporters, while the country is in great difficulty economically and socially.

And they’ve got a leadership problem – Mr Khamenei is 85 years old.

He’s not going to be around for much longer and Pezeshkian, the new, reformist president, is being sidelined.

But repressive regimes can last an awfully long time by increasing the repression – which is what they’re doing. However, eventually all repressive regimes either collapse or change radically.

The other major factor in the future of the Middle East in the coming year is the outcome of the US presidential election in November.

We knew that US power over events in the region was declining, and has been declining for some years.

But it’s certainly declined at a much more rapid pace this year than expected.

Nevertheless, if Kamala Harris wins the election, she’ll follow the basic Biden line, but will probably be tougher on Netanyahu and other Israeli politicians.

She would likely try to adjust American policy in favour of something more critical of Israel.

If Trump wins the election, the general belief is he will effectively give Netanyahu almost a free hand to pursue whatever policy he thinks is best.

And he will certainly line up behind Netanyahu to exert maximum pressure on Iran.

The Democrats need this conflict like a hole in the head.

Michigan, one of the seven key swing states, has a significant Arab population.

And the Democratic vote is in danger of collapsing there as a result.

Harris may lose the election thanks to Netanyahu, but Bibi may not mind that.

World

Ukraine war: Russia launches drone strike on Kyiv – as commander ‘sacked for lying about war progress’

Published

25 mins ago

November 25, 2024

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Ukraine war: Russia launches drone strike on Kyiv - as commander 'sacked for lying about war progress'

Russia launched a large drone attack on Kyiv overnight, with Volodymyr Zelenskyy warning the attack shows his capital needs better air defences.

Ukraine’s air defence units shot down 50 of 73 Russian drones launched, with no immediate reports of damage or injuries as a result of the attacks.

Russia has used more than 800 guided aerial bombs and around 460 attack drones in the past week.

Warning that Ukraine needs to improve its air defences, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “An air alert has been sounded almost daily across Ukraine this week”.

“Ukraine is not a testing ground for weapons. Ukraine is a sovereign and independent state.

“But Russia still continues its efforts to kill our people, spread fear and panic, and weaken us.”

Russia did not comment on the attack.

It comes as Russian media reported that Colonel General Gennady Anashkin, the commander of the country’s southern military district, had been removed from his role over allegedly providing misleading reports about his troops’ progress.

While Russian forces have advanced at the fastest rate in Ukraine since the start of the invasion, forces have been much slower around Siversk and the eastern region of Donetsk.

Russian war bloggers have long complained that units there are poorly supported and thrown into deadly battles for little tactical gain.

Russia’s ministry of defence has not commented on the reports.

World

Russian forces capture ‘former British soldier’ fighting for Ukraine – reports

Published

3 hours ago

November 24, 2024

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Russian forces capture 'former British soldier' fighting for Ukraine - reports

Russian forces have reportedly captured a British man while he was fighting for Ukraine.

In a widely circulated video posted on Sunday, the man says his name is James Scott Rhys Anderson, aged 22.

He says he is a former British Army soldier who signed up to fight for Ukraine’s International Legion after his job.

He is dressed in army fatigues and speaks with an English accent as he says to camera: “I was in the British Army before, from 2019 to 2023, 22 Signal Regiment.”

He tells the camera he was “just a private”, “a signalman” in “One Signal Brigade, 22 Signal Regiment, 252 Squadron”.

“When I left… got fired from my job, I applied on the International Legion webpage. I had just lost everything. I just lost my job,” he said.

“My dad was away in prison, I see it on the TV,” he added, shaking his head. “It was a stupid idea.”

In a second video, he is shown with his hands tied and at one point, with tape over his eyes.

He describes how he had travelled to Ukraine from Britain, saying: “I flew to Krakow, Poland, from London Luton. Bus from there to Medyka in Poland, on the Ukraine border.”

Russian state news agency Tass reported that a military source said a “UK mercenary” had been “taken prisoner in the Kursk area” of Russia.

The UK Foreign Office said it was “supporting the family of a British man following reports of his detention”.

The Ministry of Defence has declined to comment at this stage.

World

Body of missing rabbi Zvi Kogan found in UAE – as Israeli PM says he was murdered in ‘antisemitic terror incident’

Published

17 hours ago

November 24, 2024

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Body of missing rabbi Zvi Kogan found in UAE - as Israeli PM says he was murdered in 'antisemitic terror incident'

The body of an Israeli-Moldovan rabbi who went missing in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been found, Israel has said.

Zvi Kogan, the Chabad representative in the UAE, went missing on Thursday.

A statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s office on Sunday said the 28-year-old rabbi was murdered, calling it a “heinous antisemitic terror incident”.

“The state of Israel will act with all means to seek justice with the criminals responsible for his death,” it said.

On Saturday, Israeli intelligence agency Mossad said it was investigating the disappearance as suspicions arose that he had been kidnapped.

The Emirati government gave no immediate acknowledgment that Mr Kogan had been found dead. Its interior ministry has described the rabbi as being “missing and out of contact”.

“Specialised authorities immediately began search and investigation operations upon receiving the report,” the interior ministry said.

Mr Kogan lived in the UAE with his wife Rivky, who is a US citizen. He ran a Kosher grocery store in Dubai, which has been the target of online protests by pro-Palestinian supporters.

The Chabad Lubavitch movement, a prominent and highly observant branch of Orthodox Judaism, said Mr Kogan was last seen in Dubai.

Israeli authorities reissued their recommendation against all non-essential travel to the UAE and said visitors currently there should minimise movement and remain in secure areas.

The rabbi’s disappearance comes as Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel after the two countries traded fire in October.

While the Israeli statement on Mr Kogan did not mention Iran, Iranian intelligence services have previously carried out kidnappings in the UAE.

The UAE diplomatically recognised Israel in 2020. Since then, synagogues and businesses catering to kosher diners have been set up for the burgeoning Jewish community but the unrest in the Middle East has sparked deep anger in the country.