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No matter what political or military changes we see in the Middle East by 7 October 2025, it will certainly be a more fragmented region.

No individual power will create more coherence than the current state of affairs.

This level of conflict won’t last at this level of intensity for another year.

If Israel can’t win a short war, it can’t fight a long one. Its economy is too small, and the leadership’s hubris may prove to be a danger.

Follow latest: Israeli jets hitting Lebanon with ‘extensive strikes’

The conflict will most likely resolve itself into a grumbling, open-ended war on three or four different fronts.

The only big change that might occur is if there is a significant upsurge of violence on the West Bank.

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In the present atmosphere, a lot of Israeli fundamentalists would use that as an excuse to grab the whole area and expel the Palestinians who live there now.

Israel probably calculates, especially the right wing in the country, that this would be the moment when they could do that and the world would not be able to stop them.

But it may well be that Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will not survive another year, even though he’s on a high at the moment.

And while it’s difficult to imagine any regime change in Iran that may alter the course of the conflict, Ayatollah Khamenei is in trouble.

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His bluff has been called pretty thoroughly, with his strategy of manoeuvring through low-risk proxies in order to pressurise Israel and the West. Those proxies are being effectively dismantled by Israel.

This has left the regime losing face with its supporters, while the country is in great difficulty economically and socially.

And they’ve got a leadership problem – Mr Khamenei is 85 years old.

He’s not going to be around for much longer and Pezeshkian, the new, reformist president, is being sidelined.

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How has conflict affected children?

But repressive regimes can last an awfully long time by increasing the repression – which is what they’re doing. However, eventually all repressive regimes either collapse or change radically.

The other major factor in the future of the Middle East in the coming year is the outcome of the US presidential election in November.

We knew that US power over events in the region was declining, and has been declining for some years.

But it’s certainly declined at a much more rapid pace this year than expected.

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What life is like in a ‘city under siege’
Timeline of events since 7 October

Nevertheless, if Kamala Harris wins the election, she’ll follow the basic Biden line, but will probably be tougher on Netanyahu and other Israeli politicians.

She would likely try to adjust American policy in favour of something more critical of Israel.

If Trump wins the election, the general belief is he will effectively give Netanyahu almost a free hand to pursue whatever policy he thinks is best.

And he will certainly line up behind Netanyahu to exert maximum pressure on Iran.

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The Democrats need this conflict like a hole in the head.

Michigan, one of the seven key swing states, has a significant Arab population.

And the Democratic vote is in danger of collapsing there as a result.

Harris may lose the election thanks to Netanyahu, but Bibi may not mind that.

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Canadians ‘weren’t impressed’ by second UK state visit for Trump, Mark Carney says

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Canadians 'weren't impressed' by second UK state visit for Trump, Mark Carney says

Canadians “weren’t impressed” by the decision of the UK government to offer Donald Trump an unprecedented second state visit to the UK, the country’s prime minister has told Sky News.

Sir Keir Starmer handed the invitation to the US president during a visit to the Oval Office.

The newly elected Liberal leader Mark Carney said that the invitation “cut across clear messages” that the Canadian government was trying to send to the White House in response to their threats against Canada’s sovereignty.

“I think, to be frank, they [Canadians] weren’t impressed by that gesture… given the circumstance. It was at a time when we were being quite clear about the issues around sovereignty.”

Explained: Who is Mark Carney?

Mark Carney with Sam Washington
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Mark Carney speaking to Sky News’ Sam Washington

It comes as the Canadian prime minister has invited the King, who is Canada’s head of state, to open its parliament later this month in a “clear message of sovereignty”.

It is the first time the sovereign has carried out this function in nearly 50 years and Mr Carney says it’s “not coincidental”.

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“All issues around Canada’s sovereignty have been accentuated by the president. So no, it’s not coincidental, but it is also a reaffirming moment for Canadians.”

The former Bank of England governor was re-elected after a campaign fought on the promise of standing up to American threats to Canadian statehood. He had refused to speak to Mr Trump until Canadian sovereignty was respected.

It followed Mr Trump threatening to make Canada the 51st state of the US.

Mr Carney justified making his first trip after winning re-election to the White House by stating Mr Trump had changed his intentions to annex Canada from an “expectation to a desire”.

“He was expressing a desire. He’d shifted from the expectation to a desire. He was also coming from a place where he recognised that that wasn’t going to happen.

“Does he still muse about it? Perhaps. Is it ever going to happen? No. Never.”

The high-stakes meeting in the Oval Office was not confrontational, with Mr Carney praising the president’s approach as “very on top of the essence of a wide range of issues” and “able to identify the points of maximum leverage, both in a specific situation but also in a geopolitical situation”.

A King’s tension between allies


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Samantha Washington

Fractured geopolitical relations have produced an interesting phenomenon: two Commonwealth nations both deploying their head of state, King Charles, to manage the vagaries of Donald Trump.

For Canada, and its new prime minister, Mark Carney, the King is being unveiled at the opening of Parliament in Ottawa later this month as an unequivocal spectacle and symbol of sovereignty.

For the UK, Sir Keir Starmer is positioning the monarch as a bridge and has proffered a personal invitation from King Charles to the president for an unprecedented second state visit in order to facilitate negotiations over trade and tariffs.

This instrumentalisation of the crown, which ordinarily transcends politics, has created tension between the historically close allies.

Canadians view the UK’s red carpet treatment of a leader who is openly threatening their sovereignty as a violation of Commonwealth solidarity, while the British seem to have no compunction in engaging in high-level realpolitik.

The episode is emblematic of how pervasive disruptive American influence is and how extreme measures taken to combat it can aggravate even the most enduring alliances.

Since the meeting, tensions between the two countries have abated.

Further negotiations on trade and security are expected soon.

Given the deep economic integration of the two nations, neither side expects a deal imminently, but both sides concur that constructive talks have led to progress on an agreement.

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With greater goodwill between the two North American neighbours, Mr Carney also expressed optimism about Mr Trump’s efforts to broker peace between Ukraine and Russia.

The prime minister confirmed his view that the president was an “honest broker” and that his counterpart had been “helpful” in bringing momentum to a 30-day ceasefire between the warring nations.

Despite a reset in relations between the United States and Canada, Mr Carney remained circumspect.

His motto is: “Always plan for the worst.”

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And to that end, nothing is being taken for granted: “We do plan for having no deal, we do plan for trouble in the security relationship. We do plan for the global trading system not being reassembled: that’s the way to approach this president.”

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‘Sixteen killed’ in strike on Gaza hospital as Israel says it hit ‘Hamas command centre below’

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'Sixteen killed' in strike on Gaza hospital as Israel says it hit 'Hamas command centre below'

At least 16 people have been killed and 70 others were injured at a hospital in Gaza following an Israeli strike, according to the health ministry.

Nine missiles hit the European Hospital and its courtyard in the south of the Palestinian territory, officials said.

Israel said it had hit a “Hamas command centre” beneath the hospital in Khan Younis.

Hamas denies exploiting hospitals and civilian properties for military purposes.

Middle East latest – Trump signs Saudi arms deal

Palestinians inspect the damage after the European Hospital was partially damaged following Israeli airstrikes. Pic: Reuters
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The scene after the European Hospital was partially damaged following Israeli airstrikes. Pic: Reuters

Earlier, a well-known Palestinian photojournalist died following a separate attack on the Nasser Hospital, also in Khan Younis, said the ministry.

Hassan Aslih had been accused by Israel of working with Hamas and was recovering from an earlier airstrike.

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Aslih, who has hundreds of thousands of followers on social media, was said by the Israelis to have recorded and uploaded footage of “looting, arson and murder” during Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack into Israel that triggered the war in Gaza.

Aslih was one of two patients who died in Tuesday’s strike on Nasser Hospital, said the health ministry. Several others were wounded.

SENSITIVE MATERIAL. THIS IMAGE MAY OFFEND OR DISTURB Mourners carry the body of Palestinian journalist Hassan Aslih who was killed in an Israeli strike while he was recovering at Nasser Hospital from an earlier strike, during his funeral in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip May 13, 2025. Aslih was accused by Israel of working with Hamas. REUTERS/Hatem Khaled TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
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Mourners carry the body of Palestinian journalist Hassan Aslih. Pic: Reuters

Dozens of people were being treated on the third floor of the hospital building, where the missiles struck, Reuters said, quoting Ahmed Siyyam, a member of Gaza’s emergency services.

The Israeli military said it “eliminated significant Hamas terrorists” in Nasser Hospital, among them Aslih, who it said had “operated under the guise of a journalist”.

Footage showed heavy damage to one of the hospital buildings, including to medical equipment and beds inside.

At least 160 journalists and media workers have been killed in Gaza since the start of the war, according to the International Federation of Journalists.

Gazan officials accuse Israel of deliberately targeting journalists. Israel denies this and says it tries to avoid harm to civilians.

Aslih, who headed the Alam24 news outlet and had previously worked with Western news outlets, was recovering after being wounded last month in a deadly strike on a tent in the Nasser Hospital compound.

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Meanwhile, President Trump has spoken on the phone to Edan Alexander after he was released by Hamas on Monday, as part of ongoing efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire with Israel.

The 21-year-old was believed to be the last living American hostage in Gaza.

Some 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage in the 7 October attack on southern Israel, according to Israeli figures.

Israel’s response has killed more than 52,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, and destroyed much of the coastal territory. Gaza’s health ministry records do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

An aid blockade since March has left the population at critical risk of famine, according to the World Health Organisation, which warned on Tuesday that hunger and malnutrition could have a lasting impact on “an entire generation”.

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Trump to lift sanctions on Syria – as he announces $600bn deal with Saudi Arabia

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Trump to lift sanctions on Syria - as he announces 0bn deal with Saudi Arabia

Donald Trump has said the US will lift long-standing sanctions on Syria and signed a $600bn (£450bn) deal with Saudi Arabia as he visited the nation as part of a tour of the Middle East.

The US president revealed the US plans to lift sanctions on Syria following talks with Saudi Arabia‘s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Mr Trump was speaking at the US-Saudi investment conference during a four-day trip to the region.

Analysis: US-Saudi relationship feels tighter than ever as Trump signs flurry of deals

The comments follow Air Force One being escorted by Royal Saudi Air Force F-15s as it approached the kingdom’s capital, with Mr Trump welcomed by the crown prince, Saudi’s de facto ruler, as he stepped off the plane.

President Trump said the relationship between the were nations were “stronger and more powerful than ever before”, adding it would “remain that way”.

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How Trump’s Saudi visit unfolded

‘Largest defence cooperation agreement’

Mr Trump and Prince Mohammed signed several agreements aimed at increasing cooperation between their governments, including a commitment to $600bn in new Saudi investment in the US – though Mr Trump said a trillion dollars (£750bn) would be even better.

The US also agreed to sell Saudi Arabia an arms package worth nearly $142bn (£107bn), which the White House called “the largest defence cooperation agreement” Washington has ever done.

Royal Saudi Air Force F-15s provide an honorary escort for Air Force One. Pic: AP
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Royal Saudi Air Force F-15s provide an honorary escort for Air Force One. Pic: AP

In his speech, President Trump also urged Iran to take a “new and a much better path” and make a new nuclear deal with the US.

Speaking at the conference, Mr Trump said he wants to avoid a conflict with Iran but warned of “maximum pressure” if his olive branch was rejected.

Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

“As I have shown repeatedly, I am willing to end past conflicts and forge new partnerships for a better and more stable world, even if our differences may be profound,” he said.

“If Iran’s leadership rejects this olive branch… we will have no choice but to inflict massive maximum pressure, drive Iranian oil exports to zero.”

He added: “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. But with that said, Iran can have a much brighter future, but we’ll never allow America and its allies to be threatened with terrorism or nuclear attack. The choice is theirs to make.”

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President Donald Trump gestures next to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh. Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

Normalising relations with Syria

Mr Trump said he would ease US sanctions on Syria and move to normalise relations with its new government ahead of a meeting with its new leader Ahmad al Sharaa on Wednesday.

The Syrian president was formerly an insurgent who led the overthrow of former leader Bashar al Assad last year.

Mr Trump said he wants to give the country “a chance at peace” and added: “There is a new government that will hopefully succeed. I say good luck, Syria. Show us something special.”

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The US leader also said he hoped Saudi Arabia would soon join the Abraham Accords and recognise Israel “in your own time”.

Saudi Arabia has argued its recognition of Israel would be tied to the establishment of a Palestinian state along the lines of Israel’s 1967 borders.

Mr Trump will travel to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates over the next three days.

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