How a trip to Las Cruces rebuilt Vanderbilt and sparked a legendary win over Alabama
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Mark Schlabach, ESPN Senior Writer
If Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea could get his hands on one of those memory-erasing “neuralyzers” Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones used in the “Men in Black” movies, he would make everyone forget about the Commodores’ football past.
Lea would wipe away the 10 straight losing seasons and the 10-game losing streak at the end of 2023, as well as the fact the Commodores haven’t won a conference championship in 101 years and have finished with a winning record in SEC play only twice in the past 50 years.
“If I could only erase memories,” Lea told ESPN. “We’re held back so much by our past and by this old mentality that just kind of won’t leave us.”
Vanderbilt’s feeble track record is what made its 40-35 upset of No. 1 Alabama on Saturday so remarkable. The Commodores had lost every one of their previous 60 games against top-five teams in the Associated Press poll. They hadn’t beaten the Crimson Tide in 40 years and were outscored 148-3 in the previous three meetings.
A week earlier, Alabama knocked off No. 2 Georgia in a thrilling 41-34 victory and seemed poised to contend for another CFP national championship under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer. The Crimson Tide had won 79 straight games against unranked opponents, the second-longest streak in the AP poll era since 1936, according to ESPN Research.
Vanderbilt’s stunning victory wasn’t a fluke. Before goal posts from FirstBank Stadium were carried down Broadway Street in Nashville and dumped into the Cumberland River, the Commodores bullied the Crimson Tide for 60 minutes. The 22½-point underdog scored the game’s first 13 points, never trailed and controlled the clock for more than 42 minutes by converting 13 of 19 third- and fourth-down tries.
“It was emotional for me,” Lea said. “But that doesn’t mean that it wasn’t something that we had prepared for and that we didn’t expect to happen. We absolutely knew the plan. We knew that we were going to have a great shot to win it. No one was shocked here internally.”
Vanderbilt’s blueprint for toppling the Crimson Tide was conceived in December when Lea was dealing with the biggest crisis of his short head-coaching career. After beating Hawai’i and FCS program Alabama A&M to start the 2023 season, the Commodores didn’t win again, finishing 2-10.
After a 48-24 loss at Tennessee, Lea and his most trusted staff members brainstormed ideas on how to turn around Vanderbilt’s program.
“I kind of came to realize that there was some internal fracturing in our locker room that was damaging our ability to compete,” Lea said. “I kind of found it a little too late.”
Oddly enough, Lea found an unlikely lifeline in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Two weeks after the Commodores lost 31-15 to Auburn at home, New Mexico State throttled the Tigers 31-10 for its first victory over an SEC program.
“I probably watched that game nine times, and that was before I was thinking about making a change,” Lea said. “I was fascinated with what that looked like. What were the markings of that team that allowed them to separate in that game? I expected to turn on the film and see some overlooked 6-foot-6 quarterback slinging the ball everywhere.”
Instead, Lea watched Diego Pavia, a 6-foot quarterback, lead New Mexico State to the unlikely upset, throwing for 201 yards with three touchdowns in the Aggies’ milestone win.
That wasn’t all that impressed him about New Mexico State, which would finish 10-5 under coach Jerry Kill in 2023, a remarkable turnaround for a team that went 2-10 in 2021 and had won more than three games only once since 2010.
“I saw a defense that was sound, solid and simple and was able to build stops and limit big plays,” Lea said. “The offense played tough and played together. It was clear that there was creativity in the playcalling with multiple formations and multiple personnel groupings. They knew how to use the quarterback to run the ball and to create gaps. It intrigued me. I knew that’s who we needed to be.”
Lea, 42, had reached a crossroads at Vanderbilt. There was no question he was emotionally invested in turning around the woebegone football program. The Nashville native won an NAIA national championship in baseball at Birmingham Southern, before transferring to Belmont University in the Music City. He played fullback for the Commodores from 2002 to 2004.
A well-respected defensive coordinator at Notre Dame, Lea was a logical choice to replace Derek Mason after the 2020 season. But after compiling a 9-27 record in his first three seasons, Lea seemed destined to become another victim of what had become a graveyard job for so many coaches before him. He realized he needed to make big changes if he was going to turn things around.
In December, Lea flew to Las Cruces to interview New Mexico State offensive coordinator Tim Beck. Beck graded well in the metrics Lea wanted in his next coordinator: game-control offense, red zone scoring, efficient running game, explosive plays in the passing game and a quarterback friendly system.
At the time, Kill couldn’t drive because of medical issues; he had seizures from epilepsy throughout his coaching career. Beck was bringing Kill to and from practice, so when Beck informed him he was meeting Lea at a Las Cruces hotel, Kill tagged along.
“He and Tim are super close,” Lea said. “Jerry and I hit it off. There was mutual respect.”
After the interview, Kill told Beck he wasn’t sure he was going to return for a third season at New Mexico State in 2024. If Lea offered Beck the job, Kill told him he probably needed to take it.
On Dec. 22, Vanderbilt announced Beck’s hiring. Kill stepped down as the Aggies’ coach the next day.
By the time Lea was done transforming his staff, he also brought over New Mexico State assistants Ghaali Muhammad-Lankford (running backs), Melvin Rice (safeties) and Garrett Altman (quarterbacks).
There was one more big fish Lea wanted to land: Kill, who was more interested in traveling to Mexico to drink margaritas than getting back on a college football sideline. For days, Lea tried to sell Kill on rebuilding yet another program after he had worked magic everywhere from Southern Illinois to Northern Illinois to Minnesota to New Mexico State.
“He kept working on me,” Kill said. “He said, ‘You know, I need somebody. I’m younger, and I need somebody that knows how to build programs. I need somebody that can help. I really need you to come.'”
Lea had impressed Kill during Beck’s interview. He liked his sincerity and calm demeanor. Kill is a fan of country music and moving to Nashville would get him closer to his family in southern Illinois.
“I wanted to learn from him and use him as a mentor,” Lea said. “These positions get pretty lonely pretty quickly. I expressed that to him. I think he saw an opportunity to have an impact. I think he felt a connection to Tim but also to see what Vanderbilt football is and is aspiring to be as a program. It was an opportunity to come in and kind of do what he’s done through his career — help put the finishing touches on a build to make Vanderbilt football relevant.”
On Jan. 17, Vanderbilt announced it had hired Kill as Lea’s chief consultant and senior offensive advisor. Lea said Kill has been much more than that in his nearly 10 months at Vanderbilt. (Under new NCAA rules passed in June, any staff member is allowed to provide instruction to players during practices and games.)
“I am grateful to have him in the building,” Lea said. “In my best days, he’s there to celebrate with me. On my worst days, he’s there to have a conversation and listen. I think one of the great things he’s helped me with is just the push and the pull. I think as a head coach, sometimes you want to do more, more, more, because there’s not enough time in the day to accomplish all the things you want to get accomplished. But he’s taught me how to pull back to give people a chance to recover.”
The last piece of the Las Cruces to Nashville migration was Pavia, who was named the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year after passing for 2,973 yards with 26 touchdowns and running for 928 yards with seven scores in 2023.
Pavia, who grew up in Albuquerque, didn’t have a single FBS or FCS scholarship offer coming out of high school. Only two Division II schools — Western Colorado and Western New Mexico — gave him a chance to play quarterback.
“I just think they were scared of my height,” Pavia said. “People like to focus on height, weight and 40-yard dash times. I like to go off film. I move well. I feel like I throw the ball well. I feel like I run well. I just don’t have God-given height and weight.”
Pavia played two seasons at New Mexico Military Institute, eventually winning the starting job after battling through a three-man competition. In 2021, he led the Broncos to an 12-1 record. New Mexico State recruited him, but the Aggies were more focused on Iowa Western Community College quarterback Nate Glantz.
After Kill and a couple of his assistants watched Pavia lead the Broncos to a 31-13 victory over Iowa Western to earn the program’s first NJCAA national championship on TV at a Hooters, they offered Pavia a scholarship instead.
“If you met his family, they’re very competitive people,” Kill said. “I think he was raised that way and he’s been fighting all his life. People said he didn’t look like a quarterback. He’s had a chip on his shoulder and he’s got the ‘it’ factor. He’s had to come up the hard way and that’s probably why he is who he is.”
When Kill retired, Pavia entered the transfer portal with one season of eligibility remaining. He visited Vanderbilt but was told he’d have to graduate with a degree from New Mexico State before transferring, which meant he’d have to return to Las Cruces for spring semester. He took visits to North Texas, UTSA and Nevada.
Pavia committed to play for the Wolf Pack during his visit and called Beck to tell him the news. Kill called Pavia a few minutes later while he was still at the Nevada campus.
“Hey, son, I’m headed to Vanderbilt as the offensive head coach,” Kill told Pavia. “I already told everyone you’re coming with me, so I’ll see you there.”
Pavia transferred to Vanderbilt in June and quickly won over his new teammates with his work ethic. Aggies quarterback Blaze Berlowitz, tight end Eli Stowers and running back Moni Jones also joined their former coaches in Nashville.
“It’s been great to take that chemistry that they all have together and kind of plant it into our environment,” Lea said. “Those guys are all so aligned with who we are and what we do, and so I’m grateful to have them all.”
Increased NIL spending has helped the Commodores attract better talent. Lea said only three or four players had NIL deals in 2023.
“There are things that we can do now that we have never done before, which is to go out and acquire talent,” Lea said. “That’s never been a part of Vanderbilt’s process.”
After losing 10 straight games to finish the 2023 season, the Commodores pulled off one of the biggest surprises in Week 1 by knocking off Virginia Tech 34-27 in overtime. Pavia threw for two touchdowns and ran for another.
The Commodores followed that victory with a 55-0 rout of FCS program Alcorn State, but then fell to Georgia State 36-32, surrendering 426 yards to the Panthers. A 30-27 loss to then-No. 7 Missouri in two overtimes on Sept. 21 proved to Lea that his team wasn’t too far away from breaking through.
Even if college football fans never saw the upset of Alabama coming, Lea insists he wasn’t surprised. And he hopes it’s only the beginning of one of the greatest turnaround stories in the sport’s history.
The Commodores will try to build on their milestone upset when they play at Kentucky on Saturday night (7:45 p.m ET/SEC Network).
“I’m never going to be a part of something that I don’t believe can be the best,” Lea said. “I’m never going to sign up for something that’s OK being second tier or middle of the pack. Now, I understand that not everyone can grasp my words, and they don’t all understand how I bleed and what makes me who I am.
“I never believed it was going to happen overnight or it was going to happen quickly. People rose to that challenge and showed me that there’s so many people pulling for our success. And you know this is about doubling down and continuing to move it forward, but we will get there.”
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Bill Connelly
Back in May, ESPN’s team of college football reporters voted on the sport’s best coaches for 2025. The results were about as you would expect: Start with the three active guys who have most recently won national titles (Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ohio State’s Ryan Day, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney), move on to guys with recent top-five finishes or national title game appearances (Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, Penn State’s James Franklin), then squeeze in a couple of long-term overachievers at the end (Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell).
The rankings made plenty of sense, but I couldn’t help but notice that the top eight coaches on the list all work for some of the richest, most well-supported programs in the country. There are some epic pressures associated with leading these programs — just ask Day — but there are also major advantages. It might only take a good head coach to do great things in those jobs, while at programs with smaller alumni bases or lesser historic track records, it might take a great coach to do merely good things. They’re such different jobs that it’s almost impossible to even know how to compare the performance of, say, Matt Campbell to Steve Sarkisian. Could Campbell have led Texas to back-to-back CFP semifinals? Could Sark have brought ISU its first two AP top-15 finishes?
The May rankings made me want to see if there were a way to apply stats to the conversation. If you think about it, we’re basically measuring two things when we’re gauging coach performance: overall quality and quality relative to the expectations of the job. I thought it would be fun to come up with a blend of those two things and see what the results told us.
Performance versus expectation
Gauging overall performance is easy enough. You could simply look at win percentage, and it would tell you quite a bit. From 2015 to 2024, the active coaches with the best FBS win percentages (minimum 30 games) were Day (.870), Lanning (.854), Swinney (.850) and Smart (.847). All ranked high in the May rankings. I tend to want to get fancy and use my SP+ ratings whenever possible, and they tell a similar tale. Looking at average SP+ ratings for the past decade, the top active coaches are Day (30.4), Smart (27.0), Lanning (22.3), Swinney (21.9), Franklin (20.3) and Freeman (19.0). They’re all in the May top 10 too.
Again, though, all of those coaches are employed by college football royalty. (Granted, Swinney gets bonus points for helping Clemson turn into college football royalty, but still.) Isn’t it more impressive to win 11 regular-season games at Indiana, as Curt Cignetti did in 2024, than to go 10-4 like Swinney did? Isn’t it probably harder to finish 12th in SP+ at SMU, as Rhett Lashlee did in 2024, than to finish fifth like Franklin did?
I’ve begun to incorporate teams’ performance against long-term averages into my preseason SP+ projections, and it seems we could use a very similar concept to evaluate coach performances. For each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team’s SP+ rating for that season to the school’s average from the 20 previous years. (If the school is newer to FBS and doesn’t have a 20-year average, we can use whatever average exists to date. And for a program’s first FBS season, we can simply compare the team’s SP+ rating to the overall average for first-year programs.)
By this method, the 10 best single-season coaching performances of the past 20 years include Art Briles at Baylor in 2013-14, Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in 2010, Mark Mangino at Kansas in 2007, Bobby Petrino at Louisville in 2006, Greg Schiano at Rutgers in 2006 and Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina in 2020 — legendary seasons of overachievement — plus perhaps lesser-remembered performances such as Gary Andersen at Utah State in 2012, Matt Wells at Utah State in 2018 and Brian Kelly at Cincinnati in 2007.
As far as single-season overachievement goes, that’s a pretty good list. And if we look at a longer-term sample — coaches who have led FBS programs for at least nine of the past 20 years — here are the 15 best performance versus baseline averages.
(Note: I’m looking only at performances within the past 20 years, so Nick Saban’s work at LSU (2000-04) or Michigan State (1995-99), for instance, isn’t included. I also went with nine years instead of 10 so Smart’s current nine-year run at Georgia could be included in the sample.)
Best performance vs. historic baseline averages for the past 20 years (min. nine seasons):
1. Chris Petersen, Boise State (2006-13) and Washington (2014-19): +12.8 points above historic baseline
2. Art Briles, Houston (2005-07) and Baylor (2008-15): +12.8
3. Gary Pinkel, Missouri (2005-15): +12.5
4. Nick Saban, Alabama (2007-23): +10.7
5. Jeff Monken, Army (2014-24): +10.3
6. Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern (2014-15), Tulane (2016-23) and Houston (2024): +10.0
7. Lance Leipold, Buffalo (2015-20) and Kansas (2021-24): +9.5
8. Bobby Petrino, Louisville (2005-06), Arkansas (2008-11), Western Kentucky (2013) and Louisville (2014-18): +9.5
9. Gary Patterson, TCU (2005-21): +8.6
10. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford (2007-10) and Michigan (2015-23): +8.5
11. Blake Anderson, Arkansas State (2014-20) and Utah State (2021-23): +8.5
12. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (2005-15): +8.2
13. Greg Schiano, Rutgers (2005-11 and 2020-24): +7.8
14. Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky (2014-16), Purdue (2017-22) and Louisville (2023-24): +7.7
15. David Cutcliffe, Duke (2008-21): +7.7
If we are looking for pure overachievement and aren’t in the mood to reward coaches for winning at schools that always win, this is again a pretty good list. Petersen was spectacular at both Boise State and Washington, while Briles, Pinkel, Monken and Patterson all won big at schools that hadn’t won big in quite a while. (Monken, in fact, is still winning big.) Blake Anderson’s presence surprised me, but most of the names here are extremely well regarded. And Saban’s presence at No. 4, despite coaching at one of the bluest of blue-blood programs, is a pretty good indicator of just how special his reign at Alabama was.
Still, looking only at performance against expectations obviously sells coaches like Saban and Smart short. Saban is probably the best head coach in the sport’s history but ranks only fourth on the above list. Meanwhile, Smart has overachieved by only 6.0 points above the historic baseline in his nine seasons at Georgia thanks to the high bar predecessor Mark Richt set. But he has also won two national titles, overcoming Georgia’s history of falling just short and at least briefly surpassing Saban as well. If our goal is to measure coaching prowess, we need to account for raw quality too.
The best coaches of the past 20 years
If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating. We can debate the weights involved, but here’s what an overall rating looks like if we use 60% performance versus baseline and 40% SP+ average:
I always like to say that numbers make great starting points for a conversation, and this is a pretty good starting point. Anyone reading this would probably tweak this list to suit their own preferences, and while it probably isn’t surprising that Pinkel is in the top 20, seeing him fourth, ahead of Meyer, Harbaugh and others, is a bit jarring. (I promise that this Mizzou alum didn’t put his finger on the scales.) Regardless, this is a fun mix of guys who won big at big schools and guys who won pretty big at pretty big schools. That was the goal of the exercise.
Maybe the most confusing coach in this top 20 is Dabo Swinney. Clemson had enjoyed just one AP top-five finish in its history before he took over 16 years ago, and he has led the Tigers to 2 national titles, 6 top-five finishes and 7 CFP appearances. And while they haven’t had a true, title-caliber team in a few years, they’ve still won two of the past three ACC crowns. How is he only 10th?
The main culprit for Swinney’s lower-than-expected ranking is his recent performance — it has been inferior to both national title standards and his standards. Since we’re using a team’s performance against 20-year averages, a lot of this rating is basically comparing Swinney to himself, and he hasn’t quite measured up of late.
From 2012 to 2020, Swinney’s average rating was an incredible 17.0, which would have ranked second to only Saban on the list above. But his average over the past four seasons is only 3.6.
Part of what made Saban so impressive was how long he managed to clear the bar he himself was setting in Tuscaloosa. Per SP+, his best team was his 14th — the 2020 team that won his sixth and final title at Bama. While Swinney was basically matching Saban’s standard 12 years into their respective tenures, Saban continued at a particularly high level for at least three more years while Swinney fell off the pace.
Comparing Saban, Swinney and Smart year by year, we see that Smart was hitting Saban-esque levels seven seasons into his tenure, but his rating has fallen off each of the past two seasons. Even Saban slipped starting in Year 15, even though he still had nearly the best program in the sport for a couple more years.
The best coaches of 2025
Six of the top seven coaches on the list above are either retired or coaching in the NFL now, so let’s focus our gaze specifically on the guys who will be leading college teams out onto the field in 2025. Using the same 20-year sample as above — which cuts off the tenure of Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz but includes everything else — here’s how the current crop of FBS head coaches has performed at the FBS level. We’ll break this into two samples: the guys who have coached for at least four years in this sample and the guys who have coached between one and three years.
Our May top 10 list featured eight guys who have been head coaches for at least four years; all eight are represented on this list, including four of the top five. (Sarkisian has averaged a 13.8 rating over the past two seasons, which is a top-five level, but his overall run as head coach at Washington, USC and Texas has featured a number of ups and downs.)
Maybe the name that jumps out the most above is Josh Heupel. I think anyone would consider him a very good coach (he’s 37-15 overall), but he doesn’t exactly draw any “best in the game?” hype. He benefited from a positive situation at UCF, where he inherited a rising program from Scott Frost in 2019 and produced big ratings in his first couple of years on the job. But his average rating at Tennessee has been a solid 14.0 as well; the Volunteers had been up and down for years, but he has produced four top-20 SP+ ratings in a row and two top-10s in the past three years. He might not be getting the credit he deserves for that.
All in all, I enjoy this list. We’ve got mostly predictable names at the top, we’ve got some oldies but (mostly) goodies spread throughout, and we’ve got room for up-and-comers like Jeff Traylor too. This 60-40 approach probably doesn’t give enough respect to the Chris Creightons of the world — the Eastern Michigan coach has overachieved against EMU’s baseline by 7.2 points per season, which is a fantastic average, but at such a hard job, his Eagles have still averaged only a minus-14.4 SP+ rating during his tenure. Still, this is a mostly solid approach.
Now let’s talk about some small-sample all-stars.
Four of the top six of this list coached in the College Football Playoff last season, and while the guys ranked fifth and sixth made our May top 10 list, the guys who won big at SMU and Indiana, not Oregon and Notre Dame, take priority here. I was honestly floored that Curt Cignetti didn’t make our top 10 list; he led James Madison to one of the best FBS debuts ever, going 19-4 in 2022-23, then he moved to Bloomington and led Indiana — INDIANA! — to 11 wins in his first season there.
On this list, however, Rhett Lashlee tops even Cignetti. I’m not sure we’ve talked enough about the job he has done at SMU. He, too, inherited a rising program, as Sonny Dykes had done some of the nitty-gritty work in getting the Mustangs back on their feet (with help from an offensive coordinator named Rhett Lashlee). SMU hadn’t produced a top-50 ranking since 1985 before Dykes did so for three straight seasons (2019-21). But after holding steady in his first year replacing Dykes, Lashlee’s program has ignited: 12-2 and 24th in SP+ in 2023, then 11-3 and 12th in 2024. Looking specifically at the 2021-24 range, as the game has undergone so much change, Lashlee’s 16.8 average rating ranks second overall, behind only Smart (18.0) and ahead of Kiffin (15.1), Cignetti (15.0), Odom (15.0), Heupel (14.0) and Day (13.9).
Along with quite a few others here, Lashlee made my 2024 list of 30 coaches who would define the next decade; he’d definitely still be on the list — along with new additions like GJ Kinne and perhaps Fran Brown — if I remade that list today.
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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