Labour lead over Tories falls to just one point, poll shows

Published

8 months ago

October 8, 2024

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The Labour Party is leading the Conservatives by just one point, a new poll has shown, after weeks of rows over freebies.

The latest More in Common voting intention poll has 29% of people saying they would vote for Labour and 28% for the Conservatives.

When the election was held in July, the gap between the two parties was 11%. It has steadily reduced over the three months Labour has been in government.

Follow live: Race to be next Tory leader set to ‘get quite nasty’

The gap reduced to 4% in September – and now the Tories and Labour are just one percentage point apart.

Labour’s plunge in popularity is led mainly by those aged 65 and over, suggesting that it is in reaction to the winter fuel payment cut for 10 million pensioners.

Sir Keir Starmer‘s approval rating, which was at a high of +11 after winning the election, has steadily plummeted to -33, according to the More in Common poll from 5 – 7 October.

It is now below Rishi Sunak’s for the first time since January, who is on -32.

A YouGov poll released on Monday found six in 10 people (59%) now describe the Labour government as “sleazy”.

Sir Keir’s ratings and that of his government reflect a series of unpopular policy decisions and, in recent weeks, a row over freebies taken by Sir Keir and his top team.

It has culminated in Sir Keir repaying £6,000 for tickets and clothes for his wife, and the resignation of his chief of staff, former civil servant Sue Gray.

She stepped down on Sunday after weeks of briefings against her, with her perceived power and abilities attacked by other Number 10 staff and civil servants who accused her of not having a handle on the damaging freebies row.

Her replacement, Morgan McSweeney, the party’s former campaign director who masterminded July’s election landslide, will attend his first cabinet meeting on Tuesday as chief of staff.

He will try to quell discontent within Sir Keir’s inner circle despite allies of Ms Gray being unhappy she has gone.

An ally of Ms Gray told The Times she had been the victim of an “out-of-control group” of senior male advisers who felt threatened by her.

“Either Starmer wasn’t across what was going on or he was and he let them do it. Frankly neither is a good look,” the anonymous source said.

“You simply can’t have a lot of out-of-control special advisers ousting a chief of staff.”

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The former prime minister Boris Johnson used the recent rows to claim that the Conservative Party will “unquestionably” win the next general election if Sir Keir continues to govern as he is.

He told LBC that voters thought it would be a “kind of Blairite government” but “he [Starmer] is governing from the left”, using the example of handing the Chagos Islands to Mauritius and pay increases for public sector workers.

Asked if that meant the Conservatives could win the next election, Mr Johnson said: “I think they will. At this rate, they unquestionably will.”

Politics

‘No doubt’ UK will spend 3% of GDP on defence in next parliament, defence secretary says

Published

4 hours ago

May 31, 2025

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'No doubt' UK will spend 3% of GDP on defence in next parliament, defence secretary says

There is “no doubt” the UK “will spend 3% of our GDP on defence” in the next parliament, the defence secretary has said.

John Healey’s comments come ahead of the publication of the government’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR) on Monday.

This is an assessment of the state of the armed forces, the threats facing the UK, and the military transformation required to meet them.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has previously set out a “clear ambition” to raise defence spending to 3% in the next parliament “subject to economic and fiscal conditions”.

Mr Healey has now told The Times newspaper there is a “certain decade of rising defence spending” to come, adding that this commitment “allows us to plan for the long term. It allows us to deal with the pressures.”

A government source insisted the defence secretary was “expressing an opinion, which is that he has full confidence that the government will be able to deliver on its ambition”, rather than making a new commitment.

The UK currently spends 2.3% of GDP on defence, with Sir Keir announcing plans to increase that to 2.5% by 2027 in February.

This followed mounting pressure from the White House for European nations to do more to take on responsibility for their own security and the defence of Ukraine.

The 2.3% to 2.5% increase is being paid for by controversial cuts to the international aid budget, but there are big questions over where the funding for a 3% rise would be found, given the tight state of government finances.

While a commitment will help underpin the planning assumptions made in the SDR, there is of course no guarantee a Labour government would still be in power during the next parliament to have to fulfil that pledge.

A statement from the Ministry of Defence makes it clear that the official government position has not changed in line with the defence secretary’s comments.

The statement reads: “This government has announced the largest sustained increase to defence spending since the end of the Cold War – 2.5% by 2027 and 3% in the next parliament when fiscal and economic conditions allow, including an extra £5bn this financial year.

“The SDR will rightly set the vision for how that uplift will be spent, including new capabilities to put us at the leading edge of innovation in NATO, investment in our people and making defence an engine for growth across the UK – making Britain more secure at home and strong abroad.”

Sir Keir commissioned the review shortly after taking office in July 2024. It is being led by Lord Robertson, a former Labour defence secretary and NATO secretary general.

The Ministry of Defence has already trailed a number of announcements as part of the review, including plans for a new Cyber and Electromagnetic Command and a £1bn battlefield system known as the Digital Targeting Web, which we’re told will “better connect armed forces weapons systems and allow battlefield decisions for targeting enemy threats to be made and executed faster”.

On Saturday, the defence secretary announced a £1.5bn investment to tackle damp, mould and make other improvements to poor quality military housing in a bid to improve recruitment and retention.

Mr Healey pledged to “turn round what has been a national scandal for decades”, with 8,000 military family homes currently unfit for habitation.

He said: “The Strategic Defence Review, in the broad, will recognise that the fact that the world is changing, threats are increasing.

“In this new era of threat, we need a new era for defence and so the Strategic Defence Review will be the vision and direction for the way that we’ve got to strengthen our armed forces to make us more secure at home, stronger abroad, but also learn the lessons from Ukraine as well.

“So an armed forces that can be more capable of innovation more quickly, stronger to deter the threats that we face and always with people at the heart of our forces… which is why the housing commitments that we make through this strategic defence review are so important for the future.”