Tesla Robotaxi unveiling: expectations are low, could Tesla overdeliver?
Expectations appear to be quite low for Tesla’s Robotaxi unveiling on Thursday. Could Tesla surprise us?
On Thursday, Tesla is holding its ‘We, Robot’ event, which it previously described as its ‘Robotaxi unveiling’.
The automaker is expected to unveil an electric vehicle dedicated to self-driving. CEO Elon Musk has hinted that it will not have a steering wheel or pedals.
While this can be exciting on its own for some, those who have followed Tesla’s ‘Full Self-Driving’ (FSD) effort for years are a little more skeptical.
Tesla’s Supervised FSD has fallen short of even short-term goals stated by the CEO Elon Musk with the system still being at only about 120 miles between critical disengagement 3 years into the program:
It makes its long-term goal, which is for the system to work unsupervised as a robotaxi, even less believable.
Tesla fans and Wall Street analysts are trying to understand how this new dedicated robotaxi will fit into those plans, as Tesla has previously focused on making its existing consumer vehicles self-driving.
Wall Street Expectations
There’s not a ton of hype for the event on Wall Street.
Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi commented on the event:
“While Tesla is clearly focused on launching a robotaxi, Waymo and Cruise are already operating robotaxis in the U.S. today. The available data is clearly imperfect, but as of today Tesla appears to be lagging behind the leaders in the space.”
Guggenheim Securities Director of Automotive Equity Research Ronald Jewsikow thinks that Tesla would need to show a “credible path to robotaxi commercialization in the next 12 to 24 months” to satisfy the street and he doesn’t think that’s likely:
Ultimately, there are a lot of boxes that have to be checked, and we think that a real credible path to robotaxi commercialization in the next 12 to 24 months is extremely unlikely to come out of this event.
As for William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer, he expects a “sell the news” situation:
“I would not be surprised, and fully expect, the stock to pull back on the event. The trend for most of Tesla’s analyst days/big announcements is the stock runs into those as expectations rise…then there is a disappointment.”
Finally, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, who is undoubtedly the most bullish Wall Street analyst on Tesla, believes that the automaker will clearly separate the robotaxi/Cybercab program with its existing FSD:
“Potential initial commercial introduction could be late 2025 or 2026. It is our expectation that Tesla will offer a ‘dual’ approach with respect to autonomous ridesharing: (1) the fully autonomous app-based cybercab and (2) a ‘supervised’ autonomous/FSD rideshare service.”
While this is a possibility, it offers its own challenges as it might undermine its current strategy, which it has been selling to customers for 8 years.
Electrek’s Take
I think Jonas is probably right. I think the core of the event is going to be the Robotaxi/Cybercab unveiling.
We will see the actual vehicle, but the strategy for making it autonomous will be more interesting.
Is Tesla going to base the hardware on the same system found in its consumer vehicle? The answer to that question has great implications for its ability to deliver on its self-driving promises for millions of vehicles already on the road.
It could be the same, or similar, hardware, but will Tesla start using a mapped and geo-fenced approach to offer self-driving rideshares in some markets with its new Robotaxi in order to utilize it sooner?
I think that’s a real possibility, but that also has implications regarding Tesla’s current effort.
Due to Tesla’s resistance to releasing any data regarding its FSD program and the crowdsource data looking awful, I have doubts that Tesla can show anything game-changing on the self-driving front at the event.
Where Tesla could potentially overdeliver on expectations at the event is with new vehicles.
We know that Tesla has been developing two new, cheaper vehicles based on the Model 3 and Model Y, with plans to bring them to market as soon as next year.
If that’s the case, I would expect an unveiling pretty soon. Therefore, this event is a potential opportunity.
I think that could be more meaningful than a Cybercab, which would either deliver the same thing Waymo has been doing for years or be dependent on Tesla’s FSD progress, which doesn’t seem capable of delivering anything that is not supervised for a few more years.
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Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal
Ahmed Jadallah | Reuters
Saudi state oil giant Aramco reported a 15.4% drop in net profit in the third-quarter on the back of “lower crude oil prices and weakening refining margins,” but maintained a 31.05 billion dividend.
The company reported net income of $27.56 billion in the July-September period, topping a company-provided estimate of $26.9 billion. The print is also a 5% drop from the previous quarter, which came in at $29.1 billion, as lower global oil prices, weaker demand and prolonged OPEC+ production cuts led by Saudi Arabia continue to impact crude prices.
The average selling price of oil for the second quarter of 2024 stood at $85 per barrel, but dropped to $78.7 per barrel during the third quarter, according to Saudi-based bank Al Rajhi capital, as non-OPEC supply volumes grew.
The oil firm said its year-on-year decline was partly offset by a “reduction in selling, administrative and general expenses primarily driven by a gain from derivative instruments, and a decrease in production royalties largely reflecting lower crude oil prices and a lower average effective royalty rate compared to the same quarter last year.”
Aramco’s dividend includes a base payout of $20.3 billion and an atypical performance-linked one of $10.8 billion. The Saudi government and the kingdom’s sovereign wealth vehicle, the Public Investment Fund, are the main beneficiaries of the dividend, holding stakes of roughly 81.5% and 16% in the company.
The remaining shareholding trades freely on Saudi Arabia’s Tadāwul stock exchange, with the company having finalized its second public share offering back in June.
Aramco’s earnings before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) came in at $51.45 billion in the third quarter, down 17% year-on-year. Aramco’s capital expenditure guidance was brought up 20% to $13.23 billion.
The company was trading at 27.45 riyals following the announcement, down 0.18% on the previous day.
The earnings align with a broader trend across oil majors, whose third-quarter profits have also suffered from declines in crude prices and refining margins. Aramco said it achieved average realized crude price of $79.3 per barrel in the third quarter, compared with $89.3 per barrel in the same period of last year.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter who produces roughly 9 million barrels per day of crude at present, serves as the de facto leader of the OPEC+ oil producers’ alliance, a subset of whom agreed over the weekend to delay a planned December output hike by one month.
“Aramco delivered robust net income and generated strong free cash flow during the third quarter, despite a lower oil price environment,” CEO Amin Nasser said in a statement. “We also progressed our upstream developments, strengthened our downstream value chain, and advanced our new energies program as we continue to invest through cycles.”
The revenues will be a boon to the Saudi economy, which is currently undergoing a diversification process under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s legacy Vision 2030 scheme spanning a slew of high-cost infrastructure “gigaprojects.”
Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance cut the kingdom’s growth forecast to 0.8% in 2024, in a steep decline from a previous projection of 4.4%, and raised the outlook for the national budgetary shortfall to roughly 2.9% of GDP, from a prior indication of 1.9%.
On today’s episode of Quick Charge, Tesla’s Cybertruck is now available in Canada – and, like in the US, there’s no waiting! Plus, we’ve got an “actually” smart summon Tesla that’s actually stuck, GM reaches a sales milestone, and we get a brand-new title sponsor!
Today’s episode is the first with our new title sponsor, BLUETTI – a leading provider of portable power stations, solar generators, and energy storage systems.
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![This 'supercharger on wheels' brings fast charging to you [update]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2024/05/EV-mobile-charging-with-Yoshi-Mobility-3.jpg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
Mobile car care company Yoshi Mobility launched a DC fast charging EV mobile unit that it likens to “a supercharger on wheels.”
November 4, 2024 update: Yoshi Mobility will only be charging EVs on the side of the road now – it announced today that it’s selling its fleet fueling operation to EZFill Holdings (Nasdaq: EZFL).
It was originally founded as a direct-to-consumer, mobile fueling business in 2016, but now it’s going to focus on mobile EV charging, virtual vehicle inspections for partners like Uber and Turo, and onsite preventative maintenance.
Bryan Frist, Yoshi Mobility’s CEO & cofounder, said, “By spinning off our fuel business and focusing all of our energy on solving hair-on-fire problems that fleet owners face, we are meeting the changing needs of enterprise customers while making the future of transportation safer, cleaner, and more sustainable.”
May 22, 2024: Yoshi Mobility saw that its existing customers needed mobile EV charging in places where infrastructure has yet to be installed, so the Nashville-based company decided to bring the mountain to Moses.
“We recognized a demand among our customers for convenient daily charging, reliable private charging networks, and proper charging infrastructure to support their fleet vehicles as they transition to electric,” said Dan Hunter, Yoshi Mobility’s chief EV officer and cofounder.
The company says its 240 kW mobile DC fast charger, which can turn “any EV” into a mobile charging unit, is the first fully electric mobile charger available. It can provide multiple charges in a single trip but doesn’t detail how they charge the DC fast charger or who manufactured it. (I asked for more details, and they replied that they won’t disclose client names or the manufacturer of its DC fast charger yet.)
Yoshi is launching its mobile charger on two GM BrightDrop Zevo 600s and will introduce additional vehicles throughout 2024. It aims for full commercialization by Q1 2025. (I wonder if the Zevo 600 ever charges itself? Yes, I asked that too.)
Yoshi Mobility says it’s already deployed its EV charging solutions to service “major OEMs, autonomous vehicle companies, and rideshare operators” across the US. Its initial customers are made up of large EV operators managing “hundreds” of light-duty vehicles requiring up to 1 megawatt of energy per day that don’t yet have grid-connected EV chargers. I’ve asked Yoshi for details of who it’s working with, and will update if they share that info.
The company says pricing is based on location and enterprise charging needs. Once under contract for service, the service will be deployed to US-based customers within 10 days.
To date, Yoshi Mobility has raised more than $60 million, with investments from GM Ventures, Bridgestone, ExxonMobil, and Y-Combinator in Silicon Valley.
Read more: Mercedes-Benz just opened more DC fast chargers at Buc-ee’s in Texas
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