Tesla Robotaxi unveiling: expectations are low, could Tesla overdeliver?
Expectations appear to be quite low for Tesla’s Robotaxi unveiling on Thursday. Could Tesla surprise us?
On Thursday, Tesla is holding its ‘We, Robot’ event, which it previously described as its ‘Robotaxi unveiling’.
The automaker is expected to unveil an electric vehicle dedicated to self-driving. CEO Elon Musk has hinted that it will not have a steering wheel or pedals.
While this can be exciting on its own for some, those who have followed Tesla’s ‘Full Self-Driving’ (FSD) effort for years are a little more skeptical.
Tesla’s Supervised FSD has fallen short of even short-term goals stated by the CEO Elon Musk with the system still being at only about 120 miles between critical disengagement 3 years into the program:
It makes its long-term goal, which is for the system to work unsupervised as a robotaxi, even less believable.
Tesla fans and Wall Street analysts are trying to understand how this new dedicated robotaxi will fit into those plans, as Tesla has previously focused on making its existing consumer vehicles self-driving.
Wall Street Expectations
There’s not a ton of hype for the event on Wall Street.
Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi commented on the event:
“While Tesla is clearly focused on launching a robotaxi, Waymo and Cruise are already operating robotaxis in the U.S. today. The available data is clearly imperfect, but as of today Tesla appears to be lagging behind the leaders in the space.”
Guggenheim Securities Director of Automotive Equity Research Ronald Jewsikow thinks that Tesla would need to show a “credible path to robotaxi commercialization in the next 12 to 24 months” to satisfy the street and he doesn’t think that’s likely:
Ultimately, there are a lot of boxes that have to be checked, and we think that a real credible path to robotaxi commercialization in the next 12 to 24 months is extremely unlikely to come out of this event.
As for William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer, he expects a “sell the news” situation:
“I would not be surprised, and fully expect, the stock to pull back on the event. The trend for most of Tesla’s analyst days/big announcements is the stock runs into those as expectations rise…then there is a disappointment.”
Finally, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, who is undoubtedly the most bullish Wall Street analyst on Tesla, believes that the automaker will clearly separate the robotaxi/Cybercab program with its existing FSD:
“Potential initial commercial introduction could be late 2025 or 2026. It is our expectation that Tesla will offer a ‘dual’ approach with respect to autonomous ridesharing: (1) the fully autonomous app-based cybercab and (2) a ‘supervised’ autonomous/FSD rideshare service.”
While this is a possibility, it offers its own challenges as it might undermine its current strategy, which it has been selling to customers for 8 years.
Electrek’s Take
I think Jonas is probably right. I think the core of the event is going to be the Robotaxi/Cybercab unveiling.
We will see the actual vehicle, but the strategy for making it autonomous will be more interesting.
Is Tesla going to base the hardware on the same system found in its consumer vehicle? The answer to that question has great implications for its ability to deliver on its self-driving promises for millions of vehicles already on the road.
It could be the same, or similar, hardware, but will Tesla start using a mapped and geo-fenced approach to offer self-driving rideshares in some markets with its new Robotaxi in order to utilize it sooner?
I think that’s a real possibility, but that also has implications regarding Tesla’s current effort.
Due to Tesla’s resistance to releasing any data regarding its FSD program and the crowdsource data looking awful, I have doubts that Tesla can show anything game-changing on the self-driving front at the event.
Where Tesla could potentially overdeliver on expectations at the event is with new vehicles.
We know that Tesla has been developing two new, cheaper vehicles based on the Model 3 and Model Y, with plans to bring them to market as soon as next year.
If that’s the case, I would expect an unveiling pretty soon. Therefore, this event is a potential opportunity.
I think that could be more meaningful than a Cybercab, which would either deliver the same thing Waymo has been doing for years or be dependent on Tesla’s FSD progress, which doesn’t seem capable of delivering anything that is not supervised for a few more years.
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Wind energy powered 20% of all electricity consumed in Europe (19% in the EU) in 2024, and the EU has set a goal to grow this share to 34% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050.
To stay on track, the EU needs to install 30 GW of new wind farms annually, but it only managed 13 GW in 2024 – 11.4 GW onshore and 1.4 GW offshore. This is what’s holding the EU back from achieving its wind growth goals.
Three big problems holding Europe’s wind power back
Europe’s wind power growth is stalling for three key reasons:
Permitting delays. Many governments haven’t implemented the EU’s new permitting rules, making it harder for projects to move forward.
Grid connection bottlenecks. Over 500 GW(!) of potential wind capacity is stuck in grid connection queues.
Slow electrification. Europe’s economy isn’t electrifying fast enough to drive demand for more renewable energy.
Brussels-based trade association WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson summed it up: “The EU must urgently tackle all three problems. More wind means cheaper power, which means increased competitiveness.”
Permitting: Germany sets the standard
Permitting remains a massive roadblock, despite new EU rules aimed at streamlining the process. In fact, the situation worsened in 2024 in many countries. The bright spot? Germany. By embracing the EU’s permitting rules — with measures like binding deadlines and treating wind energy as a public interest priority — Germany approved a record 15 GW of new onshore wind in 2024. That’s seven times more than five years ago.
If other governments follow Germany’s lead, Europe could unlock the full potential of wind energy and bolster energy security.
Grid connections: a growing crisis
Access to the electricity grid is now the biggest obstacle to deploying wind energy. And it’s not just about long queues — Europe’s grid infrastructure isn’t expanding fast enough to keep up with demand. A glaring example is Germany’s 900-megawatt (MW) Borkum Riffgrund 3 offshore wind farm. The turbines are ready to go, but the grid connection won’t be in place until 2026.
This issue isn’t isolated. Governments need to accelerate grid expansion if they’re serious about meeting renewable energy targets.
Electrification: falling behind
Wind energy’s growth is also tied to how quickly Europe electrifies its economy. Right now, electricity accounts for just 23% of the EU’s total energy consumption. That needs to jump to 61% by 2050 to align with climate goals. However, electrification efforts in key sectors like transportation, heating, and industry are moving too slowly.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has tasked Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen with crafting an Electrification Action Plan. That can’t come soon enough.
More wind farms awarded, but challenges persist
On a positive note, governments across Europe awarded a record 37 GW of new wind capacity (29 GW in the EU) in 2024. But without faster permitting, better grid connections, and increased electrification, these awards won’t translate into the clean energy-producing wind farms Europe desperately needs.
Investments and corporate interest
Investments in wind energy totaled €31 billion in 2024, financing 19 GW of new capacity. While onshore wind investments remained strong at €24 billion, offshore wind funding saw a dip. Final investment decisions for offshore projects remain challenging due to slow permitting and grid delays.
Corporate consumers continue to show strong interest in wind energy. Half of all electricity contracted under Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) in 2024 was wind. Dedicated wind PPAs were 4 GW out of a total of 12 GW of renewable PPAs.
Read more: Renewables could meet almost half of global electricity demand by 2030 – IEA
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In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss the official unveiling of the new Tesla Model Y, Mazda 6e, Aptera solar car production-intent, and more.
The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
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The Chinese EV leader is launching a new flagship electric sedan. BYD’s new Han L EV leaked in China on Friday, revealing a potential Tesla Model S Plaid challenger.
What we know about the BYD Han L EV so far
We knew it was coming soon after BYD teased the Han L on social media a few days ago. Now, we are learning more about what to expect.
BYD’s new electric sedan appeared in China’s latest Ministry of Industry and Information Tech (MIIT) filing, a catalog of new vehicles that will soon be sold.
The filing revealed four versions, including two EV and two PHEV models. The Han L EV will be available in single- and dual-motor configurations. With a peak power of 580 kW (777 hp), the single-motor model packs more power than expected.
BYD’s dual-motor Han L gains an additional 230 kW (308 hp) front-mounted motor. As CnEVPost pointed out, the vehicle’s back has a “2.7S” badge, which suggests a 0 to 100 km/h (0 to 62 mph) sprint time of just 2.7 seconds.
To put that into perspective, the Tesla Model S Plaid can accelerate from 0 to 100 km in 2.1 seconds. In China, the Model S Plaid starts at RBM 814,900, or over $110,000. Speaking of Tesla, the EV leader just unveiled its highly anticipated Model Y “Juniper” refresh in China on Thursday. It starts at RMB 263,500 ($36,000).
BYD already sells the Han EV in China, starting at around RMB 200,000. However, the single front motor, with a peak power of 180 kW, is much less potent than the “L” model. The Han EV can accelerate from 0 to 100 km/h in 7.9 seconds.
At 5,050 mm long, 1,960 mm wide, and 1,505 mm tall with a wheelbase of 2,970 mm, BYD’s new Han L is roughly the size of the Model Y (4,970 mm long, 1,964 mm wide, 1,445 mm tall, wheelbase of 2,960 mm).
Other than that it will use a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) pack from BYD’s FinDreams unit, no other battery specs were revealed. Check back soon for the full rundown.
Source: CnEVPost, China MIIT
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