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Basij paramilitary force speed boats are sailing along the Persian Gulf near the Bushehr nuclear power plant during the IRGC marine parade commemorating the Persian Gulf National Day in the south of Iran, on April 29, 2024.

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An escalating conflict in the Middle East has thrust the world’s most important oil artery back into the global spotlight.

The Strait of Hormuz is widely recognized as a vital oil transit chokepoint. Situated between Iran and Oman, the waterway is a narrow but strategically important channel that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.

In 2022, oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz averaged 21 million barrels per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). That’s the equivalent of about 21% of the global crude trade.

The inability of oil to traverse through a major chokepoint, even temporarily, can ratchet up global energy prices, raise shipping costs and create significant supply delays.

For many energy analysts, an event where there is a blockade or a significant disruption to flows via the Strait of Hormuz, is seen as a worst-case scenario — one that could prompt oil prices to climb far above $100 a barrel.

The worst case for oil markets is if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, analyst says

“The worst case could well be if Israel strikes Iran [and] Iran takes actions to slow down or potentially try to block the Strait of Hormuz,” Alan Gelder, energy analyst at Wood Mackenzie, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.

“[This] would have a far more dramatic effect because that is where 20% of global crude exports travel through from the likes of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq — and the UAE to some extent — that are the holders of the global spare capacity,” Gelder said.

“So, we contend the market is not pricing in the worst case, it is pricing in the potential impact on Iranian energy infrastructure,” he added.

Israel’s promise to hit back at Iran following a ballistic missile attack last week has stoked speculation that the country could soon launch an attack on Tehran’s energy infrastructure.

Iran, which has pledged a forceful response of its own in the event of any further Israeli actions, is a major player in the global oil market.

How high could oil prices go?

Energy analysts have questioned whether oil markets are being too complacent about the risks of a widening conflict in the Middle East.

Saul Kavonic, senior research analyst at MST Financial, said supply disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices significantly higher.

“If we see an attack on Iranian production, up to about 3% of global supply could be curtailed and even if we just see tighter sanctions, that could also start to curtail supply by up to 3%. That on its own could see oil approach 100 or even exceed 100 dollars per barrel,” Kavonic told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Oct. 3.

“If [transit through the Strait of Hormuz] was to be impacted, we’re talking about an oil price impact that would be three times larger than the oil price shocks of the 1970s in the wake of the Iranian revolution and the Arab oil embargo, and now we’re talking about $150 plus a barrel of oil,” he added.

Oil prices traded more than 3% on Monday, extending gains even after notching their sharpest weekly gain since early 2023 last week.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry were last seen trading 1.5% lower at $79.74 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $75.99, down 1.5%.

Oil prices could rally above $200 if Iran’s energy infrastructure is wiped out, analyst says

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Swedish bank SEB, said the general rule of thumb in commodity markets is that if supply is severely restricted, then the price will often spike to between five and 10 times its normal level.

“So, if worst came to worst and the Strait of Hormuz was closed for a month or more, then Brent crude would likely spike to USD 350/b, the world economy would crater and the oil price would fall back to below USD 200/b again over some time,” Schieldrop said Friday in a research note.

“But seeing where the oil price sits right now the market doesn’t seem to hold much probability for such a development at all,” he added.

What about gas markets?

Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at Dutch bank ING, said any disruptions to transit along the Strait of Hormuz would have seismic consequences for global energy markets.

“The key concern, while still extreme, would be that these disruptions spill over to the Strait of Hormuz, affecting Persian Gulf oil flows,” Patterson said in a research note published on Oct. 4.

“A significant disruption to these flows would be enough to push oil prices to new record highs, surpassing the record high of close to $150/bbl in 2008,” he added.

View looking north showing the Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Gulf of Oman with the Persian Gulf, with the Zagros Mountains and Qeshm Island of Iran in the background, and areas of Oman, Muscat and the United Arab Emirates in the foreground, as seen from the Space Shuttle Columbia during shuttle mission STS-52, 22nd October to 1st November 1992.

Space Frontiers | Archive Photos | Getty Images

ING’s Patterson said any supply disruption in relation to the Strait of Hormuz would not be isolated to the oil market.

“It could also potentially lead to disruptions in [liquified natural gas] flows from Qatar, which makes up more than 20% of global LNG trade,” he continued.

“This would be a shock to global gas markets, particularly as we move into the northern hemisphere winter, where we see stronger gas demand for heating purposes. While we are seeing a ramp-up in new LNG export capacity, this still falls well short of Qatari export volumes.”

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Solar executives warn that Trump attack on renewables will lead to power crunch that spikes electricity prices

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Solar executives warn that Trump attack on renewables will lead to power crunch that spikes electricity prices

Witthaya Prasongsin | Moment | Getty Images

President Donald Trump‘s attack on solar and wind projects threatens to raise energy prices for consumers and undermine a stretched electric grid that’s already straining to meet rapidly growing demand, renewable energy executives warn.

Trump has long said wind power turbines are unattractive and endanger birds, and that solar installations take up too much land. This week, he said his administration will not approve solar and wind projects, the latest salvo in a campaign the president has waged against the renewable energy industry since taking office.

“We will not approve wind or farmer destroying Solar,” Trump posted on Truth Social Wednesday. “The days of stupidity are over in the USA!!!”

Trump’s statement this week seemed to confirm industry fears that the Interior Department will block federal permits for solar and wind projects. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum took control of all permit approvals last month in a move that the American Clean Power Association criticized as “obstruction,” calling it “unprecedented political review.”

The Interior Department blocking permits would slow the growth of the entire solar and wind industry, top executives at renewable developers Arevon, Avantus and Engie North America told CNBC.

Even solar and wind projects on private land may need approvals from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service if, for example, a waterway or animal species is affected, the executives told CNBC. The three power companies are among the top 10 renewable developers in the U.S., according to energy research firm Enverus.

The Interior Department “will not give preferential treatment to massive, unreliable projects that make no sense for the American people or that risk harming communities or the environment,” a spokesperson told CNBC when asked if new permits would be issued for solar and wind construction.

Choking off renewables will worsen a looming power supply shortage, harm the electric grid and lead to higher electricity prices for consumers, said Kevin Smith, CEO of Arevon, a solar and battery storage developer headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, that’s active in 17 states. Arevon operates five gigawatts of power equivalent to $10 billion of capital investment.

“I don’t think everybody realizes how big the crunch is going to be,” Smith said. “We’re making that crunch more and more difficult with these policy changes.”

Uncertainty hits investment

The red tape at the Interior Department and rising costs from Trump’s copper and steel tariffs have created market instability that makes planning difficult, the renewable executives said.

“We don’t want to sign contracts until we know what the playing field is,” said Cliff Graham, CEO of Avantus, a solar and battery storage developer headquartered in San Diego. Avantus has built three gigawatts of solar and storage across the desert Southwest.

“I can do whatever you want me to do and have a viable business, I just need the rules set and in place,” Graham said.

Engie North America, the U.S. arm of a global energy company based in Paris, is slashing its planned investment in the U.S. by 50% due to tariffs and regulatory uncertainty, said David Carroll, the chief renewables officer who leads the American subsidiary. Engie could cut its plans even more, he said.

Engie’s North American subsidiary, headquartered in Houston, will operate about 11 gigawatts of solar, battery storage and wind power by year end.

Multinationals like Engie have long viewed the U.S. as one of the most stable business environments in the world, Carroll said. But that assessment is changing in Engie’s boardroom and across the industry, he said.

“The stability of the U.S. business market is no longer really the gold standard,” Carroll said.

Rising costs

Arevon is seeing costs for solar and battery storage projects increase by as much as 30% due to the metal tariffs, said Smith, the CEO. Many renewable developers are renegotiating power prices with utilities to cover the sudden spike in costs because projects no longer pencil out financially, he said.

Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act ends two key tax credits for solar and wind projects in late 2027, making conditions even more challenging. The investment tax credit supported new renewable construction and the production credit boosted clean electricity generation.

Those tax credits were just passed on to consumers, Smith said. Their termination and the rising costs from tariffs will mean higher utility bills for families and businesses, he said.

The price that Avantus charges for solar power has roughly doubled to $60 per megawatt-hour as interest rates and tariffs have increased over the years, said CEO Graham. Prices will surge again to around $100 per megawatt-hour when the tax credits are gone, he said.

“The small manufacturers, small companies and mom and pops will see their electric bills go up, and it’ll start pushing the small entrepreneurs out of the industry or out of the marketplace,” Graham said.

Renewable projects that start construction by next July, a year after the One Big Beautiful Act became law, will still qualify for the tax credits. Arevon, Avantus and Engie are moving forward with projects currently under construction, but the outlook is less certain for projects later in the decade.

The U.S. will see a big downturn in new renewable power generation starting in the second half of 2026 through 2028 as new projects no longer qualify for tax credits, said Smith, the head of Arevon.

“The small- and medium-sized players that can’t take the financial risk, some of them will disappear,” Smith said. “You’re going to see less projects built in the sector.”

Artificial intelligence power crunch

Fewer renewable power plants could increase the risk of brownouts or blackouts, Smith said. Electricity demand is surging from the data centers that technology companies are building to train artificial intelligence systems. PJM Interconnection, the largest electrical grid in the U.S. that coordinates wholesale electricity in 13 states and the District of Columbia, has warned of tight power supplies because too little new generation is coming online.

Renewables are the power source that can most quickly meet demand, Smith at Arevon said. More than 90% of the power waiting to connect to the grid is solar, battery storage or wind, according to data from Enverus.

“The power requirement is largely going to be coming from the new energy sector or not at all,” so without it, “the grid becomes substantially hampered,” Smith said.

Trump is prioritizing oil, gas and nuclear power as “the most effective and reliable tools to power our country,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said.

“President Trump serves the American people who voted to implement his America First energy agenda – not solar and wind executives who are sad that Biden’s Green New Scam subsidies are ending,” Kelly said.

But new natural gas plants won’t come online for another five years due to supply issues, new nuclear power is a decade away and no new coal plants are on the drawing board.

Utilities may have to turn away data centers at some point because there isn’t enough surplus power to run them, and no one wants to risk blackouts at hospitals, schools and homes, Arevon’s Smith said. This would pressure the U.S. in its race against China to master AI, a Trump administration priority.

“The panic in the data center, AI world is probably not going to set in for another 12 months or so, when they start realizing that they can’t get the power they need in some of these areas where they’re planning to build data centers,” Smith said.

“Then we’ll see what happens,” said the University of Chicago MBA, who’s worked in the energy industry for 35 years. “There may be a reversal in policy to try and build whatever we can and get power onto the grid.”

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Tesla offered many Cybertruck trade-ins above purchase price in apparent glitch

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Tesla offered many Cybertruck trade-ins above purchase price in apparent glitch

Over the weekend, Tesla began offering many Cybertruck trade-in estimated values above the original purchase price, apparently due to a glitch in its system.

Tesla offers online trade-in estimates for individuals considering purchasing a vehicle from them.

Over the last few days, Cybertruck owners who submitted their vehicles through the system were surprised to see Tesla offering extremely high valuations on the vehicle, often above what they originally paid for the electric truck.

Here are a few examples:

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  • $79,200 for a 2025 Cybertruck AWD with 18,000 miles. Since this is a 2025 model year, it was eligible for the tax credit and Tesla is offering the same price as new without incentive.
  • Here Tesla offered $118,800 for a 2024 Cybertruck ‘Cyberbeast’ tri-motor with 21,000 miles.
  • In this example, Tesla offers $11,000 more than the owner originally paid for a 2024 Cybertruck.

The trade-in estimates made no sense. Tesla has been known to offer more attractive estimates online and then come lower with the official final offer, but this is on a whole different level.

Some speculated that Tesla’s trade-in estimate system was malfunctioning, while others thought Tesla was indirectly recalling early Cybertrucks.

It appears to be the former.

Some Tesla Cybertruck owners who tried to go through a new order with their Cybertruck as a trade-in were told by Tesla advisors that the system was “glitching” and they would not be honoring those prices.

Tesla told buyers that it would be refunding its usually “non-refundable” order fee.

Electrek’s Take

That’s a weird glitch. I assume that it was trying to change how the trade-in value would be estimated and the new math didn’t work for the Cybertruck for whatever reason.

It’s the only thing that makes sense to me.

The Cybertruck’s value is already quite weird due to the fact that Tesla still has new vehicles made in 2024, which are not eligible for the tax credit incentive, while the new ones made in 2025 are eligible.

There’s also the Foundation Series, which bundles many features for a $20,000 higher price.

All these things affect the value and can make it hard to compare with new Cybertrucks offered with 0% interest.

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At $28,000 off, is the Jeep Wagoneer S the best EV deal going? [update]

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At $28,000 off, is the Jeep Wagoneer S the best EV deal going? [update]

Like a 90s “gifted” kid that was supposed to be a lot of things, the electric Jeep Wagoneer S never really found its place — but when dealers started discounting the Jeep brands forward-looking flagship by nearly $25,000 back in June, I wrote that it might be time to give the go-fast Wagoneer S a second look.

This month, the discounts are even better.

UPDATE 23AUG25: I found you some even better EV deals!


Whether we’re talking about Mercedes-Benz, Cerberus, Fiat, or even Enzo Ferrari, outsiders have labeled Jeep as a potentially premium brand that could, “if managed properly,” command luxury-level prices all over the globe. That hasn’t happened, and Stellantis is just the latest in a long line of companies to sink massive capital into the brand only to realize that people will not, in fact, spend Mercedes money on a Jeep.

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That said, the Jeep Wagoneer S is not a bad car (and neither is its totally different, hideously massive, ICE-powered Wagoneer sibling, frankly). Built on the same Stellantis STLA Large vehicle platform that underpins the sporty Charger Daytona EVs, the confusingly-named Wagoneer S packs dual electric motors putting out almost 600 hp. That’s good enough to scoot the ‘ute 0 to 60 mph in a stomach-turning 3.5 seconds and enough, on paper, to convince Stellantis executives that they had developed a real, market-ready alternative to the Tesla Model Y.

With the wrong name and a sky-high starting price of $66,995 (not including the $1,795 destination fee), however, that demand didn’t materialize, leaving the Wagoneer S languishing on dealer lots across the country.

That could be about to change, however, thanks to big discounts on Wagoneer S being reported at CDJR dealers in several states:

  • Jeff Belzer’s in Minnesota has a 2025 Wagoneer S Limited with a $67,790 MSRP for $39,758 ($28,032 off)
  • Troncalli CDJR in Georgia has a 2025 Wagoneer S Limited with a $67,590 MSRP for $42,697 ($24,893 off)
  • Whitewater CDJR in Minnesota has a 2025 Wagoneer S Limited with a $67,790 MSRP for $43,846 ($23,944 off)
  • Antioch CDJR in Illinois has a 2025 Wagoneer S Limited with a $67,790 MSRP for $44,540 ($23,250 off)

“Stellantis bet big on electric versions of iconic American brands like Jeep and Dodge, but consumers aren’t buying the premise,” writes CDG’s Marcus Amick. “(Stellantis’ dealer body) is now stuck with expensive EVs that need huge discounts to move, eating into already thin margins while competitors focus on [more] profitable gas-powered vehicles.”

All of which is to say: if you’ve found yourself drawn to the Jeep Wagoneer S, but couldn’t quite stomach the $70,000+ window stickers, you might want to check in with your local Jeep dealer and see how you feel about it at a JCPenneys-like 30% off!


Original content from Electrek; images via Stellantis.


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