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There’s no doubt who has momentum in the Tory leadership contest now.

James Cleverly pole-vaulted his rivals to first place – reaping the benefits of a well-thought-through, warm conference speech designed to make the party feel good about itself.

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A pitch from the Tory centre that so far appears to be appealing to all sides. Hopes in rival camps that the conference counted for little have not born out.

But this does not by itself guarantee victory and beyond that, still nothing is certain.

One more knockout round tomorrow before the 170,000 or so members get their say, what clues are there in the results and the briefings about what happens next?

Today told us three things, as the remaining teams battle it out tonight to ensure their candidate makes it to the final two.

What did we learn:

• Kemi Badenoch is explicitly pitching to the Tory right, suggesting she is making little effort to appeal to the bulk of Tom Tugendhat’s supporters who are mostly – though not exclusively – one-nation Conservatives. Tonight in a statement she demands “the right of the Conservative Party now needs to coalesce around Kemi” – this suggests she is still trying to nibble away at Robert Jenrick backers, even though she fell behind Jenrick today. This is a particularly bold strategy given some of the ERG (European Research Group) fell out with Ms Badenoch when Rishi Sunak was prime minister.

• Robert Jenrick is losing momentum. Rival camps are capitalising on a drop in support for Mr Jenrick, from 33 MP votes in the last round to 31 votes today. However, I was told by Jenrick supporters that he would get 35-40 votes today, suggesting that he has seriously underperformed expectations. It appears the conference has done him some damage – his speech appeared less well-received than others – costing him the top spot among MPs.

• Is James Cleverly so far out in front he dares to try and engineer Jenrick as his opponent in the final round? In the YouGov poll of Tory members taken before the conference speeches, Mr Jenrick was only four points ahead of Mr Cleverly, while Ms Badenoch was further in front. Given the margins between second and third place are so small, could he “lend” some votes to get an easier opponent over the line?

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Tugendhat out of Tory leadership race

YouGov polling revealed that among the general public, Tory MPs today ejected the most popular of the contenders for the crown – Mr Tugendhat, with Mr Cleverly and Mr Jenrick tied and Ms Badenoch the least popular.

But what do the all-important Tory members actually care about?

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YouGov’s AI Topic Quantifier got Tory members to say what qualities they wanted in a leader.

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Top of the list was the members’ desire for “integrity and honesty”, and second is “conservative values”. Only a tiny fraction – 2% – wanted “winning the election.”

This underlines why it remains far from clear what the outcome will be, wherever momentum may be tonight.

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Why Boris’s best mate is off to Reform

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Why Boris's best mate is off to Reform

👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈       

Former Conservative chairman and friend of Boris Johnson – Sir Jake Berry – is defecting to Reform UK, causing more problems for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.

On today’s episode, Sky News’ Sam Coates and Politico’s Anne McElvoy discuss if his defection will divide parts of Reform policy.

Elsewhere, the Anglo-French summit gets under way, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hoping to announce a migration deal with French President Emmanuel Macron to deter small boat crossings.

Plus, chatter around Whitehall that No10 are considering a pre-summer reshuffle, but will it have any value?

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Australia to test CBDCs, stablecoins in next stage of crypto play

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Australia to test CBDCs, stablecoins in next stage of crypto play

Australia to test CBDCs, stablecoins in next stage of crypto play

The trial is part of Project Acacia, an initiative from the RBA exploring how digital money and tokenization could support financial markets in Australia.

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Starmer and Macron agree need for ‘new deterrent’ to stop small boat crossings

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Starmer and Macron agree need for 'new deterrent' to stop small boat crossings

Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have agreed the need for a “new deterrent” to deter small boats crossings in the Channel, Downing Street has said.

The prime minister met Mr Macron this afternoon as part of the French president’s state visit to the UK, which began on Tuesday.

High up the agenda for the two leaders is the need to tackle small boat crossings in the Channel, which Mr Macron said yesterday was a “burden” for both the UK and France.

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The small boats crisis is a pressing issue for the prime minister, given that more than 20,000 migrants crossed the English Channel to the UK in the first six months of this year – a rise of almost 50% on the number crossing in 2024.

Sir Keir is hoping he can reach a deal for a one-in one-out return treaty with France, ahead of the UK-France summit on Thursday, which will involve ministerial teams from both nations.

The deal would see those crossing the Channel illegally sent back to France in exchange for Britain taking in any asylum seeker with a family connection in the UK.

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However, it is understood the deal is still in the balance, with some EU countries unhappy about France and the UK agreeing on a bilateral deal.

French newspaper Le Monde reports that up to 50 small boat migrants could be sent back to France each week, starting from August, as part of an agreement between Sir Keir and Mr Macron.

A statement from Downing Street said: “The prime minister met the French President Emmanuel Macron in Downing Street this afternoon.

“They reflected on the state visit of the president so far, agreeing that it had been an important representation of the deep ties between our two countries.

“Moving on to discuss joint working, they shared their desire to deepen our partnership further – from joint leadership in support of Ukraine to strengthening our defence collaboration and increasing bilateral trade and investment.”

It added: “The leaders agreed tackling the threat of irregular migration and small boat crossings is a shared priority that requires shared solutions.

“The prime minister spoke of his government’s toughening of the system in the past year to ensure rules are respected and enforced, including a massive surge in illegal working arrests to end the false promise of jobs that are used to sell spaces on boats.

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“The two leaders agreed on the need to go further and make progress on new and innovative solutions, including a new deterrent to break the business model of these gangs.”

Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, seized on the statement to criticise Labour for scrapping the Conservatives’ Rwanda plan, which the Tories claim would have sent asylum seekers “entering the UK illegally” to Rwanda.

He said in an online post: “We had a deterrent ready to go, where every single illegal immigrant arriving over the Channel would be sent to Rwanda.

“But Starmer cancelled this before it had a chance to start.

“Now, a year later, he’s realised he made a massive mistake. That’s why numbers have surged and this year so far has been the worst in history for illegal channel crossings.

“Starmer is weak and incompetent and he’s lost control of our borders.”

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