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With solar leading the way, renewables could meet almost half of global electricity demand by the end of this decade, says a new IEA report.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) just released its “Renewables 2024” report, which projects that by the end of this decade, global renewable energy capacity is set to grow by more than 5,500 gigawatts (GW).

To put that in perspective, that’s about as much power capacity as the current combined total of China, the EU, India, and the US.

From 2024 to 2030, new renewable installations are expected to be nearly three times higher than what we saw between 2017 and 2023. China is leading the way and will be responsible for almost 60% of all new renewables added in that time frame, meaning it will account for nearly half of the world’s renewable power capacity by 2030. Meanwhile, India is seeing the fastest growth among major economies.

Solar is the biggest driver of this surge, with solar PV expected to make up 80% of the new renewable capacity. This is thanks to the ongoing construction of large solar power plants and more rooftop solar being installed by homeowners and businesses. Wind is also set for a strong rebound, doubling its growth rate between now and 2030 compared to the previous seven years. Right now, wind and solar are already the cheapest ways to generate new electricity in almost every country.

This rapid growth means nearly 70 countries – representing 80% of global renewable power capacity – are on track to meet or even exceed their current renewable energy goals for 2030. While the world is set to add an impressive amount of renewable capacity by 2030, it may still fall slightly short of the goal set at COP28 to triple capacity by then. But the IEA says that meeting this goal is doable if governments make bold commitments, enhance international cooperation, and address high financing costs, especially in high-potential regions like Africa and Southeast Asia.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol highlighted that renewables are expanding faster than many governments can even set new targets. He emphasized that it’s not just about emissions reductions or energy security – it’s because renewables are simply the cheapest option for new power generation in most countries. “By 2030, we expect renewables to be meeting half of global electricity demand,” Birol said.

The IEA report warns, however, that governments will need to step up efforts to integrate solar and wind into power grids. Some countries are seeing renewable power generation curtailed – or not even used – at rates of up to 10%. To fix this, countries will need to boost power system flexibility, streamline permitting processes, and build or modernize electric grids and reach 1,500 GW of storage capacity by 2030.

The report also looks at renewable manufacturing, especially for solar. Global solar manufacturing capacity is expected to exceed 1,100 GW by the end of 2024, far outpacing demand. This oversupply, mainly coming from China, has driven down solar module prices but also put financial pressure on manufacturers. Meanwhile, solar manufacturing capacity is expected to triple in both India and the US by 2030, helping to diversify the global supply chain – though costs remain significantly higher outside of China.

The big takeaway? Renewables are expanding faster than many anticipated, thanks to supportive policies and improving economics. But to fully harness the potential of solar, wind, and other renewable energy technologies, governments will need to work together to overcome the financial and infrastructure challenges that still stand in the way.

Dave Jones, independent energy think tank Ember‘s director of global insights, said: “Policymakers are embracing solar and wind like never before, but they are still two steps behind the reality on the ground. The market can deliver on renewables, and now governments need to prioritize investing in storage, grids, and other forms of clean flexibility to enable this transformation. The next half decade is going to be one heck of a ride.”

Read more: Prices fall for residential solar, demand is up for battery storage – EnergySage

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Solid-state batteries may yet catch up — but silicon anodes are winning the race to power EVs

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Solid-state batteries may yet catch up — but silicon anodes are winning the race to power EVs

A Wallbox EV charger for electric car is displayed during the “Mondial de l’Auto” at Parc des Expositions on October 15, 2024 in Paris, France.

Chesnot | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Silicon anodes appear to be leading the way in the race to commercialize next-generation battery technologies for electric vehicles.

The buzz around silicon-based anodes, which promise improved power and faster charging capabilities for EVs, has been growing in recent months — just as the hype around solid-state batteries seems to have fizzled.

It comes as increasing EV sales continue to drive up global battery demand, prompting auto giants to team up with major cell manufacturers on the road to full electrification.

While some OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) have inked deals with solid-state battery developers, carmakers such as Mercedes, Porsche and GM have all bet big on silicon anodes to deliver transformative change in the science behind EVs.

A recent report from consultancy IDTechEx described the promise of advanced silicon anode materials as “immense” for improving critical areas of battery performance, noting that this potential hadn’t gone unnoticed by carmakers and key players in the battery industry.

It warned, however, that challenges such as cycle life, shelf life and — perhaps most importantly — cost, need to be addressed for widespread adoption.

Venkat Srinivasan, director of the Collaborative Center for Energy Storage Science at the U.S. government’s Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago, said silicon anodes appear to have the edge over solid-state batteries.

“If there’s a horse race, silicon does seem to be ahead at least at this moment, but we haven’t commercialized either one of them,” Srinivasan told CNBC via videoconference.

How silicon could enable cheaper EVs, electric flight and more powerful batteries

Srinivasan said five years ago silicon-anode batteries had a calendar life of roughly one year, but recent data appears to show a dramatic improvement in the durability of these materials, with some tests now projecting a three to four-year calendar life.

Unlike the cycle life of a battery, which counts the number of times it can be charged and discharged, the calendar life measures degradation over time. Typically, the calendar life of a battery refers to the period in which it can function at over 80% of its initial capacity, regardless of its usage.

Srinivasan said solid-state batteries, long billed as the “holy grail” of sustainable driving, still have a long way to go before they can match the recent progress made by silicon anodes.

“That transition still has to be made in solid-state with their metal batteries and that’s why I think you’re hearing from people that, hey, it looks like that promise hasn’t panned out,” Srinivasan said.

“That doesn’t mean we won’t get there. It may happen in a few years. It just means that it feels like today silicon is in a different part of the technology readiness level.”

Silicon anodes vs. solid-state batteries

Analysts say silicon anodes theoretically offer 10 times the energy density as graphite, which are commonly used in battery anodes today. Yet, these same materials typically suffer from rapid degradation when lots of silicon is used.

“Silicon anodes and solid-state batteries are two emerging technology trends in the EV battery market aimed at pushing the boundaries of high-performance battery cells,” Rory McNulty, senior research analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, told CNBC via email.

A researcher checks the electromagnet de-ironing machine at the Daejoo Electronic Materials Co. R&D center in Siheung, South Korea, on Thursday, June 22, 2023.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

It has typically been the case that better battery performance comes at the cost of longevity or safety, McNulty said. Silicon anodes, for example, are known to swell significantly during charging, which reduces the battery’s longevity.

By comparison, McNulty said solid-state batteries were claimed to greatly improve the stability of the electrolyte to high performance electrode materials, combating the challenges of using high energy density materials such as silicon and lithium.

As the name suggests, solid-state batteries contain a solid electrolyte, made from materials such as ceramics. That makes them different from conventional lithium-ion batteries, which contain liquid electrolyte.

Especially in the West, advances in the area of silicon anodes [are] seen as strategic opportunity to catch up with China.

Georgi Georgiev

Battery raw materials analyst at Fastmarkets

Japan’s Toyota and Nissan have both said they are aiming to bring solid-state batteries into mass production over the coming years, while China’s SAIC Motor Corp reportedly said in early September that its MG brand would equip cars with solid-state batteries within the next 12 months.

Nonetheless, analysts remain skeptical about when solid-state batteries will actually make it to market.

A strategic opportunity?

“Silicon based anodes promise to be the next-generation technology in the anode field, providing a solution for faster charging,” Georgi Georgiev, battery raw materials analyst at consultancy Fastmarkets, told CNBC via email.

Georgiev said several industry players have been looking into the potential of silicon anodes, from well-established anode suppliers in China and South Korea to new players like Taiwan’s ProLogium and U.S. manufacturers Group14 and Sila Nanotechnologies.

“Especially in the West, advances in the area of silicon anodes [are] seen as strategic opportunity to catch up with China, which dominates the graphite-based anode supply chains with Chinese anode producers holding 98% of the global anode market for batteries,” Georgiev said.

“However, there are significant technical challenges going to 100% silicon anode such as silicon expansion affecting the longevity of the batteries and currently there are several routes to produce silicon anodes,” he added.

A FEV x ProLogium Technology Co. 100% silicon composite anode next-generation battery at the Paris Motor Show in Paris, France, on Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Taiwanese battery maker ProLogium debuted the world’s first fully silicon anode battery at the Paris Motor Show last month, saying it’s new fast-charging battery system not only surpassed traditional lithium-ion batteries in performance and charging efficiency but also “critical industry challenges.”

ProLogium, citing test data, said it’s 100% silicon anode battery could charge from 5% to 60% in just 5 minutes, and reach 80% in 8.5 minutes. It described the advancement as an “unmatched achievement in the competitive EV market,” which will help to reduce charging times and extend the range of EVs.

Fastmarkets’ Georgiev said a big question mark over the commercialization of silicon anodes is the cost of production and whether any of the major silicon-anode producers “could produce material at scale with a consistent quality and at a competitive price — [a] major requirements of OEMs.”

“At this stage silicon anodes are used more as an additive to graphite-based anodes and in the years to come we expect to see increase of silicon share in anode, but in combination with graphite, while 100% silicon anodes will take longer time to enter the mass market,” he added.

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Oil giant Saudi Aramco posts 15% drop in third-quarter profit but maintains dividend

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Oil giant Saudi Aramco posts 15% drop in third-quarter profit but maintains dividend

Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal

Ahmed Jadallah | Reuters

Saudi state oil giant Aramco reported a 15.4% drop in net profit in the third-quarter on the back of “lower crude oil prices and weakening refining margins,” but maintained a 31.05 billion dividend.

The company reported net income of $27.56 billion in the July-September period, topping a company-provided estimate of $26.9 billion. The print is also a 5% drop from the previous quarter, which came in at $29.1 billion, as lower global oil prices, weaker demand and prolonged OPEC+ production cuts led by Saudi Arabia continue to impact crude prices.

The average selling price of oil for the second quarter of 2024 stood at $85 per barrel, but dropped to $78.7 per barrel during the third quarter, according to Saudi-based bank Al Rajhi capital, as non-OPEC supply volumes grew.

The oil firm said its year-on-year decline was partly offset by a “reduction in selling, administrative and general expenses primarily driven by a gain from derivative instruments, and a decrease in production royalties largely reflecting lower crude oil prices and a lower average effective royalty rate compared to the same quarter last year.”

Aramco’s dividend includes a base payout of $20.3 billion and an atypical performance-linked one of $10.8 billion. The Saudi government and the kingdom’s sovereign wealth vehicle, the Public Investment Fund, are the main beneficiaries of the dividend, holding stakes of roughly 81.5% and 16% in the company.

The remaining shareholding trades freely on Saudi Arabia’s Tadāwul stock exchange, with the company having finalized its second public share offering back in June.

Aramco’s earnings before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) came in at $51.45 billion in the third quarter, down 17% year-on-year. Aramco’s capital expenditure guidance was brought up 20% to $13.23 billion.

The company was trading at 27.45 riyals following the announcement, down 0.18% on the previous day.

The earnings align with a broader trend across oil majors, whose third-quarter profits have also suffered from declines in crude prices and refining margins. Aramco said it achieved average realized crude price of $79.3 per barrel in the third quarter, compared with $89.3 per barrel in the same period of last year.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter who produces roughly 9 million barrels per day of crude at present, serves as the de facto leader of the OPEC+ oil producers’ alliance, a subset of whom agreed over the weekend to delay a planned December output hike by one month.

OPEC chief says delayed December output hike is 'nothing unusual'

“Aramco delivered robust net income and generated strong free cash flow during the third quarter, despite a lower oil price environment,” CEO Amin Nasser said in a statement. “We also progressed our upstream developments, strengthened our downstream value chain, and advanced our new energies program as we continue to invest through cycles.”

The revenues will be a boon to the Saudi economy, which is currently undergoing a diversification process under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s legacy Vision 2030 scheme spanning a slew of high-cost infrastructure “gigaprojects.”

Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance cut the kingdom’s growth forecast to 0.8% in 2024, in a steep decline from a previous projection of 4.4%, and raised the outlook for the national budgetary shortfall to roughly 2.9% of GDP, from a prior indication of 1.9%.

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Cybertruck backlog runs out, Model S gets stuck, GM hits a sales milestone

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Cybertruck backlog runs out, Model S gets stuck, GM hits a sales milestone

On today’s episode of Quick Charge, Tesla’s Cybertruck is now available in Canada – and, like in the US, there’s no waiting! Plus, we’ve got an “actually” smart summon Tesla that’s actually stuck, GM reaches a sales milestone, and we get a brand-new title sponsor!

Today’s episode is the first with our new title sponsor, BLUETTI – a leading provider of portable power stations, solar generators, and energy storage systems.

Prefer listening to your podcasts? Audio-only versions of Quick Charge are now available on Apple PodcastsSpotifyTuneIn, and our RSS feed for Overcast and other podcast players.

New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonusLucid proves than an EV company can keep its promises while Xiaomi teams up with Chevrolet and Honda to prove – at least conceptually – that records are made to be broken. audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news!

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Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show!

Read more: Renewables now make up 30% of US utility-scale generating capacity

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