Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch will battle it out to be the next leader of the Conservative Party after James Cleverly was eliminated from the race.
Tory MPs held a final vote on Wednesday to reduce the field to a final two, who will then go to a ballot of Conservative members.
After picking up 42 votes in the final round of voting, Ms Badenoch re-established herself as the favourite after lagging behind in previous rounds.
Robert Jenrick, her close rival on the right, picked up one vote shy of Ms Badenoch, while Mr Cleverly – who was seen as a unifying candidate – won the backing of 37 MPs.
The selection of Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick means the Conservative Party is heading towards the right and that immigration – and the UK’s membership of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) – will be at the top of the agenda.
Mr Jenrick said he was “delighted to have got so much support from parliamentary colleagues today”.
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4:51
James Cleverly eliminated in Tory race
He told Sky News’ Sophy Ridge he believed his message of fixing the NHS, growing the economy and reducing immigration had struck a chord with MPs.
“On each of these areas, I’ve got a real plan,” he said.
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“I don’t trade in platitudes. I have a plan as to how we provide serious, competent leadership for our party and ultimately for our country.”
This contest could become unpleasant quite quickly
The Conservative leadership contest is no longer a battle for the direction of the party.
By picking Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, this has pivoted from a contest about the future direction of the party to one that turns on two different visions of a Tory future on the right of British politics.
The ejection of James Cleverly – who was frontrunner just yesterday – stunned the party. Nobody has yet admitted to whether his defeat took place because of a miscalculation over vote lending.
However people saw Cleverly on the terrace and later for a time at the Boris Johnson book launch – a period the other campaign were hitting the phones to firm up support.
It is still too close to call who will win between Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick as they go through to the final round and submit themselves to the judgement of 170,000 Tory members.
However, Ms Badenoch now appears to have the edge.
The last Tory members poll for YouGov by Sky News puts her four percentage points ahead of her rival in a head to head contest – not much more than the margin of error, but this was taken before her well-received conference speech.
In the final round of voting she was suddenly out in front amongst MPs – when the suggestion had been that they might try and keep her off the ballot.
This puts to bed the suggestion that too many MPs worry that her regular incendiary and unpredictable comments bar her from the top job.
Mr Jenrick will now want this race to turn on immigration .
Team Jenrick say he wants to leave ECHR and she “wants to remain” and that his opponent wants to leave.
Team Badenoch says that misrepresents her – her more nuanced position is that she is willing to leave if necessary, but only after a review.
Other clear dividing lines are yet to emerge, however. The risk that a contest based around personalities becomes quite personal – and unpleasant – quite quickly.
It is not a contest anyone could have predicted.
Ms Badenoch said the reason she had performed the best in the final round of voting was because “people have a lot of faith in my approach”…that you start with principles first and then policy”.
Mr Cleverly’s elimination from the race came as a surprise after he rallied in the previous round of voting following what was considered to be a strong performance at the Conservative Party conference.
Image: Kemi Badenoch has established herself as the frontrunner after lagging behind in previous rounds.
Political reporter Alix Culbertson, who was in the room as the result was announced, said “disbelief resounded around the room” after it was confirmed the former home secretary would not be in the final two.
Following the result Mr Cleverly posted on X: “I’m grateful for the support I’ve received on this campaign from colleagues, party members and the public.
“Sadly it wasn’t to be. We are all Conservatives, and it’s important the Conservative Party unites to take on this catastrophic Labour government.”
It came after Tom Tugendhat, the former security minister who was running from the centrist wing of the party, was knocked out of the raceafter receiving the least votes from MPs on Tuesday.
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The result marks a comeback for Ms Badenoch, who while starting as the favourite in the early stages of the contest, was later pursued by Mr Jenrick who overtook her in the first, second and third MPs’ ballot.
Both candidates faced criticism for comments they made during the party conference.
Britain’s membership of the ECHR is likely to be at the forefront at the debate between the two frontrunners, with Mr Jenrick – who has already challenged his rival to a debate – advocating that the UK leave the convention.
Ms Badenoch’s position is that she wants a review of the ECHR and would be willing to leave it if necessary.
Asked whether the race was likely to get “dirty” and if he could guarantee a “clean contest”, Mr Jenrick told Sophy Ridge: “That’s the way I fought this campaign now for three months.
Image: Robert Jenrick has made leaving the ECHR central to his campaign.
“I’m a collegiate person, but I also want to provide direction for this party,” he said. “We need to be more Conservative. We need to ensure that we occupy that common ground of British politics once more.”
On the issue of the ECHR, Ms Badenoch said making it the sole focus of the debate would be a mistake.
“What I talked about in my conference speech and when I launched my campaign is we need to talk about everything,” she told reporters in Westminster.
“It can’t just be about one little part of immigration policy – we need to lower immigration, that’s part of the story, but just talking about the ECHR is going to shut down the conversation that we need to have with the entire country.”
The party membership vote will close at 5pm on Thursday 31 October. The winner, who will become leader of the party and the Opposition to the Labour government, will be announced on Saturday 2 November.
Since taking office nine months ago Sir Keir Starmer has weathered party rows about winter fuel payments, the two child benefit cap, WASPI women, airport expansion and cuts to international aid.
All of these decisions have been justified in the name of balancing the books – filling that notorious £22bn black hole, sticking to the fiscal rules, and in the pursuit of growth as the government’s number one priority.
But welfare reform feels like a far more existential row.
Ministers have been making the point for weeks that the health benefits bill for working-age people has ballooned by £20bn since the pandemic and is set to grow by another £18bn over the next five years, to £70bn.
But the detail of where those cuts could fall is proving highly divisive.
Not the final version perhaps – but given all backbench Labour MPs who were summoned to meetings with the Number 10 policy teams for briefings this week, that response is perhaps more than a little disingenuous.
In his interview with Sir Trevor Phillips, he went on to make the broader case for PIP reform – highlighting the thousand people who sign up to the benefit every day and arguing that the system needs to be “sustainable”, to “deliver for those that need it most” and “provide the right kind of support for the different types of need that exist”.
To me this signals the government are preparing to unveil a tighter set of PIP eligibility criteria, with a refocus on supporting those with the greatest needs.
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1:13
Liz Bates: Will there be a backlash over benefits?
Changes to incapacity benefit to better incentivise working – for those who can – are also clearly on the cards.
The health secretary has been hitting out at the “overdiagnosis” of mental health conditions, arguing that “going out to work is better for your mental and physical health, than being spent and being stuck at home”, and promising benefit reforms that will help support people back to work rather than “trapped in the benefits system”.
Turning Tory?
Starmer said this week the current welfare system couldn’t be defended on economic or moral grounds.
The Conservatives don’t disagree.
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1:25
Conservatives: Scrapping NHS England is ‘right thing’
Before the election, they proposed £12bn in cuts to the welfare bill, with a focus on getting people on long-term sickness back to work.
This morning, shadow education secretary Laura Trott claimed Labour denied that welfare cuts were needed during the election campaign and had wasted time in failing to include benefits reform in the King’s Speech.
“They’re coming to this chaotically, too late and without a plan,” she said.
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Notwithstanding the obvious critique that the Tories had 14 years to get a grip on the situation – what’s most striking here is that, yet again, the Labour government seems to be borrowing Conservative clothes.
When challenged by Sir Trevor this morning, Streeting denied they were turning Tory – claiming the case for welfare reform and supporting people into work is a Labour argument.
But, from increasing defence spending and cutting the aid budget to scrapping NHS England, there’s a definite pattern emerging.
If you didn’t know a Labour administration was in charge, you might have assumed these were the policies of a Conservative government.
It’s a strategy which makes many of his own backbenchers deeply uncomfortable.
But it’s doing a good job of neutering the Tory opposition.
The new Sky News and Politico podcast Politics At Sam And Anne’s launches today, with Anne McElvoy replacing Jack Blanchard as Sam Coates’s co-host.
The political podcast will be available from 7.30am Monday to Thursday and will see Coates, Sky News’ deputy political editor, and McElvoy, Politico’s executive editor, unpack everything there is to know about the day ahead in Westminster.
Each instalment of the award-winning podcast will give audiences the latest insight into British politics in no more than 20 minutes.
The podcast originally launched in September 2023 with Jack Blanchard – Politico’s former UK editor, and now author of Politico’s DC Playbook.
McElvoy’s arrival comes after a successful year for the podcast as it was recently recognised at the inaugural Political Podcast Awards and credited for its “must-know political insight”.
Coates, who won Presenter of the Year at the 2025 Political Podcast Awards, said: “Having Anne on board as my new full-time co-host is hugely exciting.
“With her phenomenal multi-decade background in domestic and international affairs, Anne is best in class at dissecting how events around the world are shaping Westminster.
“By combining Politico’s incredible depth and Sky’s ability to cut through the noise, we are well placed to continue providing unrivalled analysis and the latest scoops to our informed Westminster audience.”
McElvoy said: “Sam’s boundless energy, deep cross-party knowledge and a shared delight in informed conversation on the topics and characters shaping politics make even our early morning recordings fun.
“Our mission remains delivering the unmissable first podcast of the day for and about Westminster. We will explore the news moments that matter, offer our own insights and spontaneous exchanges and preview events that shape our political world.”
David Rhodes, executive chairman of Sky News, said the podcast was “the go-to source for people who work in Westminster and beyond”.
He said: “It provides an unparalleled service, giving a community of highly engaged listeners the full story, first each morning on what’s happening in politics.”
A freeze to disability benefits will not go ahead following pressure from Labour backbench MPs, Sky News understands.
The government had been looking at freezing the personal independence payment (PIP) next year so it did not rise with inflation as part of a drive to cut down the ballooning welfare budget.
However, following pressure from Labour backbenchers over the past week, this has now been taken off the table, Sky News understands.
The proposal had been set to save about £5bn as Chancellor Rachel Reeves searches for savings after losing £9.9bn of fiscal headroom (the amount she could increase spending or cut taxes without breaking her fiscal rules) since the October budget due to a poor economy and geopolitical events.
PIP is a payment of up to £9,000 a year for people with long-term physical and mental health conditions and disabilities to help with extra living costs.
However, the government is expected to make qualifying for PIP more difficult when Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall reveals plans on Tuesday.
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Sky News’ deputy political editor Sam Coates, on the Politics At Sam and Anne’s podcast, said the Treasury is also expected to abolish the Work Capability Assessment, which determines whether someone is fit or not to work and to then receive disability payments.
The government has described the system as “dysfunctional” as those “not fit for work” do not receive employment support or further engagement after the assessment, which could lock them out of future work altogether.
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1:13
Will there be a backlash over benefits?
Sir Keir Starmer has made cutting the welfare budget a key project as spending on sickness benefits soared to £65bn last year – a 25% increase since the year before the COVID pandemic – and is expected to rise to £100bn before the next general election in 2029.
The number of people in England and Wales claiming either sickness or disability benefit has soared from 2.8 million to about 4 million since 2019.
However, many Labour MPs are uncomfortable with cutting benefits for disabled people.
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0:45
Streeting defends wanting to slash welfare benefits
Ms Kendall had been expected to announce welfare cut plans last week but this was delayed by displeasure from backbenchers, with the government taking the unusual step of asking all 404 Labour MPs to attend “welfare roundtables” in Downing Street last week.
Greater Manchester’s Labour mayor, Andy Burnham – a former health secretary – agreed the benefits system “needs a radical overhaul” but wrote in The Times: “I would share concerns about changing support and eligibility to benefits while leaving the current top-down system broadly in place. It would trap too many people in poverty.”
Will government follow through on tough talk despite backbench concerns?
Tomorrow, the government will publish its plans to cut the welfare budget, but it’s the Labour benches that are likely to cause the most havoc.
This mini u-turn on freezing PIP will placate some Labour MPs nervous about the unintended consequences of the welfare crackdown and how it may affect disabled people.
On Sky News Breakfast today former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell welcomed the news, and said he understood the pressures the Treasury was facing.
His muted tone could be an indication the government’s efforts to persuade backbenchers of the merits of the plan – by inviting them to Downing Street to speak their minds and be reassured the most vulnerable would be protected – is taking effect.
However, despite a relatively understanding tone from Mr McDonnell, he also warned Reeves’s plans may turn out to create more problems than it will solve in the long run.
Mr McDonnell accused the government of not understanding the world has changed, hinting the chancellor ought to follow Germany’s lead, break her fiscal rules and blame the policy pivot on unprecedented global events.
Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham also attacked the government’s plans to crack down on the benefits bill, but Treasury minister Emma Reynolds launched the fightback on Sky News Breakfast, insisting the government had a duty to reform the welfare system “according to our values”.
Reynolds argued there is dignity in work and that reforms were needed as “something has gone seriously wrong under the Tories”, arguing the cuts chime with Labour ideology.
And Health Secretary Wes Streeting – the self-proclaimed Tory whisperer – has hardened his rhetoric even further, claiming the over-diagnosing of mental health problems is in part to blame for the ballooning benefits bill.
This hardening of the government’s language is a clear attempt to talk tough, but will the government be able to follow through on the action the Treasury is desperate to see while many Labour backbenchers remain unconvinced Starmer has his priorities in the right order?
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3:01
Labour faces criticism over welfare reforms
Treasury minister Emma Reynolds played down the level of discontent over plans to freeze PIP, as she told Sky News: “It is absolutely everyday business that we should have discussions with backbenchers, meetings between our MPs and ministers happen all day, every day.
“So this isn’t something that is any different, but we’re determined to strike the right balance here.”
She added there will “always be a safety net for the most vulnerable” and pointed out Labour created the welfare state in 1945, but it needs to be “more sustainable”.