Tory leadership race: James Cleverly knocked out – leaving Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch in final two
Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch will battle it out to be the next leader of the Conservative Party after James Cleverly was eliminated from the race.
Tory MPs held a final vote on Wednesday to reduce the field to a final two, who will then go to a ballot of Conservative members.
After picking up 42 votes in the final round of voting, Ms Badenoch re-established herself as the favourite after lagging behind in previous rounds.
Robert Jenrick, her close rival on the right, picked up one vote shy of Ms Badenoch, while Mr Cleverly – who was seen as a unifying candidate – won the backing of 37 MPs.
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The selection of Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick means the Conservative Party is heading towards the right and that immigration – and the UK’s membership of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) – will be at the top of the agenda.
Mr Jenrick said he was “delighted to have got so much support from parliamentary colleagues today”.
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James Cleverly eliminated in Tory race
He told Sky News’ Sophy Ridge he believed his message of fixing the NHS, growing the economy and reducing immigration had struck a chord with MPs.
“On each of these areas, I’ve got a real plan,” he said.
“I don’t trade in platitudes. I have a plan as to how we provide serious, competent leadership for our party and ultimately for our country.”
This contest could become unpleasant quite quickly
The Conservative leadership contest is no longer a battle for the direction of the party.
By picking Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, this has pivoted from a contest about the future direction of the party to one that turns on two different visions of a Tory future on the right of British politics.
The ejection of James Cleverly – who was frontrunner just yesterday – stunned the party. Nobody has yet admitted to whether his defeat took place because of a miscalculation over vote lending.
However people saw Cleverly on the terrace and later for a time at the Boris Johnson book launch – a period the other campaign were hitting the phones to firm up support.
It is still too close to call who will win between Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick as they go through to the final round and submit themselves to the judgement of 170,000 Tory members.
However, Ms Badenoch now appears to have the edge.
The last Tory members poll for YouGov by Sky News puts her four percentage points ahead of her rival in a head to head contest – not much more than the margin of error, but this was taken before her well-received conference speech.
In the final round of voting she was suddenly out in front amongst MPs – when the suggestion had been that they might try and keep her off the ballot.
This puts to bed the suggestion that too many MPs worry that her regular incendiary and unpredictable comments bar her from the top job.
Mr Jenrick will now want this race to turn on immigration .
Team Jenrick say he wants to leave ECHR and she “wants to remain” and that his opponent wants to leave.
Team Badenoch says that misrepresents her – her more nuanced position is that she is willing to leave if necessary, but only after a review.
Other clear dividing lines are yet to emerge, however. The risk that a contest based around personalities becomes quite personal – and unpleasant – quite quickly.
It is not a contest anyone could have predicted.
Ms Badenoch said the reason she had performed the best in the final round of voting was because “people have a lot of faith in my approach”…that you start with principles first and then policy”.
Mr Cleverly’s elimination from the race came as a surprise after he rallied in the previous round of voting following what was considered to be a strong performance at the Conservative Party conference.
Kemi Badenoch has established herself as the frontrunner after lagging behind in previous rounds.
Political reporter Alix Culbertson, who was in the room as the result was announced, said “disbelief resounded around the room” after it was confirmed the former home secretary would not be in the final two.
Following the result Mr Cleverly posted on X: “I’m grateful for the support I’ve received on this campaign from colleagues, party members and the public.
“Sadly it wasn’t to be. We are all Conservatives, and it’s important the Conservative Party unites to take on this catastrophic Labour government.”
It came after Tom Tugendhat, the former security minister who was running from the centrist wing of the party, was knocked out of the race after receiving the least votes from MPs on Tuesday.
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The result marks a comeback for Ms Badenoch, who while starting as the favourite in the early stages of the contest, was later pursued by Mr Jenrick who overtook her in the first, second and third MPs’ ballot.
Both candidates faced criticism for comments they made during the party conference.
Mr Jenrick claimed the SAS was being forced to kill rather than capture terrorists because the “European Court will set them free”, something many of his colleagues disputed.
Former business secretary Ms Badenoch was forced to backtrack over comments she made about “excessive” maternity pay and civil servants being jailed.
Britain’s membership of the ECHR is likely to be at the forefront at the debate between the two frontrunners, with Mr Jenrick – who has already challenged his rival to a debate – advocating that the UK leave the convention.
Ms Badenoch’s position is that she wants a review of the ECHR and would be willing to leave it if necessary.
Asked whether the race was likely to get “dirty” and if he could guarantee a “clean contest”, Mr Jenrick told Sophy Ridge: “That’s the way I fought this campaign now for three months.
Robert Jenrick has made leaving the ECHR central to his campaign.
“I’m a collegiate person, but I also want to provide direction for this party,” he said. “We need to be more Conservative. We need to ensure that we occupy that common ground of British politics once more.”
On the issue of the ECHR, Ms Badenoch said making it the sole focus of the debate would be a mistake.
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“What I talked about in my conference speech and when I launched my campaign is we need to talk about everything,” she told reporters in Westminster.
“It can’t just be about one little part of immigration policy – we need to lower immigration, that’s part of the story, but just talking about the ECHR is going to shut down the conversation that we need to have with the entire country.”
The party membership vote will close at 5pm on Thursday 31 October. The winner, who will become leader of the party and the Opposition to the Labour government, will be announced on Saturday 2 November.
Mike Amesbury has officially stepped down as an MP after he was convicted of punching a man in the street.
Amesbury, who was suspended from the Labour Party, was jailed on 24 February.
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He was sentenced to 10 weeks behind bars after he pleaded guilty to the assault by beating of 45-year-old Paul Fellows in Frodsham, Cheshire, in the early hours of 26 October.
Following an appeal, his sentence was suspended for two years – so he does not have to serve it in prison.
He announced his resignation as MP for Runcorn and Helsby in a social media post on Monday, describing the assault as a “deeply regrettable incident” for which he had “rightly been punished”.
“I am sincerely sorry to Paul Fellows, my family, colleagues and constituents,” he added.
A by-election will now be triggered in Runcorn and Helsby, where constituents will vote to elect a new MP.
Mike Amesbury leaving Chester Crown Court in February. Pic: PA
By-election a ‘big test’ for PM
It will be the first by-election since Sir Keir Starmer became prime minister, in what Sky News’ political correspondent Liz Bates said would be a “big test” in a seat where Reform UK came second last year.
“Losing it would be an unmitigated disaster given the 14,000 majority achieved last time round,” said Bates.
Amesbury came first in Runcorn and Helsby with 22,358 votes at the 2024 general election – equating to 52.9% of the electorate.
Reform UK came in second with 7,662 votes (18.1%) and the Tories in third with 6,756 votes (16%).
Reform has yet to announce a candidate, but Karen Shore, the deputy leader of Cheshire West and Chester Council, will run for Labour.
The Conservatives have opted for Sean Houlston, a membership services manager for the National Federation of Builders.
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How is a by-election triggered?
Why Labour MPs are deeply uncomfortable
Sir Keir Starmer’s government has been polling very badly indeed. Pic: PA
When will the by-election be?
Under parliamentary procedure, an MP cannot simply resign but must be disqualified from holding their seat.
To do this, they must apply for a role in the paid office of the Crown, meaning they automatically lose their seat because working for the Crown is not seen as impartial.
Titles include the crown steward and bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds and the Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.
Rachel Reeves has now appointed Amesbury to be steward and bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern, meaning the parliamentary seat is officially vacant.
Once he does, the chief whip will put forward a motion to Lindsay Hoyle, the Commons speaker, to officially begin the process of disqualifying the MP – known as “moving the writ”.
The Speaker then puts the motion to MPs for a vote. If they agree, the writ passes through the Commons and ends up with the returning officer in the local constituency who oversees the by-election.
The writ is typically issued within three months of the MP resigning from their seat and in doing so, the date of the by-election is fixed.
It could potentially coincide with the local elections in May.
The welfare state will be there for those who need it “now and for years to come”, the work and pensions secretary has said – as the government faces pressure from its own MPs over benefit changes.
Liz Kendall acknowledged there has been “lots of speculation” about the government’s plans to reform welfare, which are due to be announced on Tuesday following a delay because of concerns from Labour backbenchers.
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Speaking in the House of Commons, Ms Kendall said she wanted to assure the public the announcements will “ensure there is trust and fairness in the social security system” – and that it will remain in place for those who need it.
Earlier on Monday, Sky News revealed the government has chosen not to freeze the personal independence payment (PIP) next year following pressure from Labour MPs over the past week.
Ministers had wanted to stop PIP (a payment of up to £9,000 a year for people with long-term physical and mental health conditions, and disabilities) rising with inflation as part of a drive to cut the welfare budget.
The proposal had been set to save about £5bn, as Chancellor Rachel Reeves searches for savings.
She has lost £9.9bn of fiscal headroom (the amount she could increase spending or cut taxes without breaking her fiscal rules) since the October budget due to a poor economy and geopolitical events.
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Which benefits could be cut?
Why Labour MPs are so uncomfortable
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Will there be a backlash over benefits?
What’s the government’s case?
The government is expected to make qualifying for PIP more difficult when Ms Kendall reveals her plans on Tuesday.
Sky News’ deputy political editor Sam Coates, on the Politics At Sam And Anne’s podcast, said the Treasury is also expected to abolish the Work Capability Assessment, which determines whether someone is fit or not to work and to then receive disability payments.
The government has described the system as “dysfunctional”, as those “not fit for work” do not receive employment support or further engagement after the assessment, which could lock them out of future work altogether.
Sir Keir Starmer has made cutting the welfare budget a key project, as spending on sickness benefits soared to £65bn last year – a 25% increase since the year before the pandemic – and is expected to rise to £100bn before the next general election in 2029.
The number of people in England and Wales claiming either sickness or disability benefit has gone from 2.8 million to about four million since 2019.
Ms Kendall also revealed in the Commons the number of young people not working because of mental health conditions has risen by more than 25% in the last year, with the number considered “economically inactive” now reaching 270,000.
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‘1,000 people every day signing on to PIP benefits’
Unhappy Labour MPs
Ms Kendall had been expected to announce welfare cut plans last week.
But due to the scale of the backlash, the government took the unusual step of asking all 404 Labour MPs to attend “welfare roundtables” in Downing Street last week.
Sky News’ political correspondent Amanda Akass said Ms Kendall’s Commons appearance offered no real answers to the “serious concerns” raised by MPs, though social security minister Stephen Timms insisted they would “welcome” many of the changes when they are announced.
Treasury minister Emma Reynolds earlier played down the level of discontent over plans to freeze PIP, telling Sky News the roundtables were nothing more than “everyday business”.
She pointed out Labour created the welfare state in 1945, but said it needs to be “more sustainable”.
A “significant number” of countries will provide troops to a Ukraine peacekeeping force, Sir Keir Starmer’s spokesman said.
On Saturday, leaders from 26 Western countries – plus two EU leaders and NATO’s secretary general – gathered for a virtual call of the “coalition of the willing”, hosted by Sir Keir after Volodymyr Zelenskyy accepted a 30-day interim ceasefire agreement.
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The prime minister said military chiefs would meet this Thursday to discuss the next “operational phase” in protecting Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force – if a deal can be agreed with Russia.
Speaking on Monday, Sir Keir’s spokesman said they now expect “more than 30” countries to be involved in the coalition – but did not reveal which other countries had joined since Saturday.
He added: “The contribution capabilities will vary, but this will be a significant force, with a significant number of countries providing troops and a larger group contributing in other ways.”
The spokesman did not say which countries agreed to be part of a peacekeeping force, which Sir Keir and French leader Emmanuel Macron have confirmed the UK and France will be part of.
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What could a peacekeeping force actually do?
Could troops end up fighting?
Russia has repeatedly said it would not accept soldiers from NATO countries being stationed in Ukraine.
Asked if British troops fired on by Russia in Ukraine would be allowed to fire back, the spokesman said: “It’s worth remembering that Russia didn’t ask Ukraine when it deployed troops.
“We’ve got operational planning meetings that they are going through.”
The spokesman also said he did not know if the US – notably absent from the coalition – will be joining the military chiefs’ meeting on Thursday, but said the UK is having “regular discussions with our American counterparts”.
Both the UK and France are pushing for the US to provide security guarantees to prevent Russia from reneging on any peace deal with Ukraine.
Read more:
Who’s in the coalition of the willing?
Follow live updates from the Ukraine war
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Which nations will join peacekeeping efforts?
Trump and Putin to hold talks
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he supports the truce brokered by the US in Saudi Arabia, but “lots of questions” remain over the proposals.
Donald Trump said on Sunday night he will speak to Mr Putin on Tuesday about ending the war and negotiators have already discussed “dividing up certain assets”, including land and power plants.
He said a “lot of work” had been done over the weekend on a peace deal.
The leaders involved in Saturday’s call were from: Australia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, Ukraine, and the UK.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President Antonio Costa also joined.
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