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Sky News’ Yalda Hakim reflects on a year of war between Israel and Hamas, tracing the fighting, grief and future through one year, two sounds, three miles and four weeks

One year…

It’s been just over one year since the day that changed the lives of Israelis and Palestinians for generations.

The tragedy of 7 October lives inside most Israelis in a visceral way that is magnified by a unique history.

After enduring bloody pogroms and the Holocaust, this is a nation whose modern existence was meant as the ultimate guarantor that ‘never again’ would the Jewish people be slaughtered defenceless.

Yet on that day, as Hamas infiltrated Israel, a bloody chime of history sounded as 1,200 Jews were murdered.

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What happened on 7 October 2023

For those in Gaza and now Lebanon, it is one year since Israeli retaliation began against Hamas and Hezbollah.

Displacement, disease and death hang in the air in these places, creating tragedy for hundreds of thousands of people.

And what began as a terrorist attack against Israel increasingly feels like it has become a regional war that risks engulfing the entire Middle East.

A year ago, it felt like the once inconceivable normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia might be inevitable.

Instead, the Palestinian issue is back on the international agenda at the price of thousands of dead.

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Across the world, and especially in the United States and Europe, the war in Gaza has polarized and enflamed societies in a way no other conflict has – with an outpouring of emotions about Israel and the Palestinians.

Hundreds of thousands march in capitals every weekend calling for an end to the conflict.

Two sounds…

The morning at the memorial was sombre and emotional. Parents wept for their lost children.

Read more:
Israel’s darkest day will forever be a part of its history

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Silence, screams and the sounds of war

As I walked around the site of the Nova Music Festival in Re’im, I was struck by two distinct sounds.

First, the anguished wailing of mothers – breaking the silence to cry out in unspeakable grief. The other – every 90 seconds – was the sound of artillery fire going into Gaza.

These are two sounds which have become inextricably linked over this year.

As mothers cry in Israel, just three miles away in Gaza, mothers also weep for their dead children.

According to the UN – at the time of writing – 11,355 children in Gaza have been killed by Israeli bombardment.

The health ministry in Gaza puts the total number of dead at over 42,000 people.

According to the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, there are an estimated further 10,000 people still not found under the rubble.

In Lebanon, the death toll is also growing. Their health ministry says over 2,000 people have now died as a result of Israeli bombardment, and a fifth of the population is now displaced.

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Father of 7 October victim speaks to Sky

Three miles…

That is the distance between where I was standing at the site of the Nova Music Festival memorial and the Gaza Strip.

All that separates the two worlds – because they do feel like separate worlds – is a wall. A wall that was torn through on 7 October 2023.

In the early hours of that day, Hamas brutally killed more than 350 people gathered here at a music festival and took as many as 40 others hostage.

People hid for hours on end, watching helplessly as their friends were killed in front of them and others were dragged back into Gaza.

Many texted relatives saying the IDF was coming but it took the army five hours to arrive – arguably the worst intelligence and security failure in Israeli history.

In other communities, it was as many as 12 hours.

The site of the Nova Music Festival massacre in Re'im on 7 October 2024, a year after Hamas' attack on Israel
Israelis cry at the site of the Nova Music Festival massacre on 7 October 2024, a year after Hamas' attack on Israel

Three miles away, Hamas is no longer in control of Gaza, yet the overwhelming majority of hostages are still not freed and Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the 7 October attack, has not been captured or killed.

Gaza itself is in rubble. One in five buildings has been destroyed, and almost half damaged. Mosques, schools and shops are flattened.

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Life has changed for every single person in the Gaza Strip. The UN says nearly the entire population of Gaza has been displaced.

Four weeks…

It’s now just under four weeks until a knife-edged US presidential election.

Whoever wins is likely to inherit a widening war that is no longer centred on just the Israelis and the Palestinians, but Iran, its regional proxies and allies stretching from Lebanon to Yemen, and the fate of its quickening nuclear programme.

On one hand, Donald Trump is unpredictable. He says he would end the Ukraine war on day one, he claims there would never have been 7 October if he had been in the White House, and he warns darkly about the threat of World War Three absent his return to power.

But what would he do? Will he embolden and support Israeli pushback on the Iranians, or will he rein them in? No one knows for certain – including perhaps Trump himself.

Kamala Harris’s foreign policy will probably look similar to Joe Biden’s: Words of warning to Benjamin Netanyahu, but military and economic support to Israel.

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Israel’s offensives in the last few months have showcased the limits of American power, at least as wielded under President Biden.

Before Americans vote, however, it seems all but certain the Israelis will strike Iran – retaliation for an unprecedented ballistic missile attack on the Jewish State earlier this month that Israel and the US largely blunted.

How and when Israel hits Iran is the source of intense speculation – including whether the target could include the country’s energy infrastructure or nuclear sites.

The term ‘October surprise’ was coined in 1980 when Ronald Reagan feared that a last-minute deal to release American hostages in Iran might earn Jimmy Carter enough votes to remain as president.

Forty-four years later, and less than a month before election day, Iran and the wider Middle East could once again deliver another surprise.

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Helicopter carrying Hindu pilgrims crashes in India, killing seven people

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Helicopter carrying Hindu pilgrims crashes in India, killing seven people

A helicopter carrying Hindu pilgrims has crashed in India, killing seven people on board.

The accident happened within minutes of the helicopter taking off, officials said, on what should have been a 10-minute flight.

The helicopter was flying to Guptkashi, a prominent Hindu pilgrimage site in the Himalayas, from Kedarnath temple town in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand.

It comes three days after an Air India flight crashed less than a minute after taking off from Ahmedabad airport in northwestern India, killing at least 270 people.

The helicopter, which was operated by private helicopter service Aryan Aviation, went down in a forested area several miles from the Kedarnath pilgrimage route at around 5.30am local time.

Officials said the crash was believed to have been caused by poor weather conditions.

Authorities say they have launched a search and rescue operation and are expected to review operational protocols for flights in the region.

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The dead include the pilot and pilgrims from the neighbouring state of Uttar Pradesh and western states of Maharashtra and Gujarat, according to officials. The bodies were badly burned in a fire that followed the crash, they said.

Smoke and debris at the crash site. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Smoke and debris at the site. Pic: Reuters

Tens of thousands of pilgrims visit Kedarnath, which is home to one of the four most sacred Hindu temple shrines, each summer. Many use helicopter services due to the difficult mountainous terrain.

Helicopter mishaps are not uncommon in the region, where sudden weather changes and high-altitude flying conditions can pose risks.

Earlier this month, a helicopter operating in the Kedarnath Valley made an emergency landing shortly after taking off on a highway due to a technical fault. The pilot was injured but all five passengers on board were unharmed.

In May, a helicopter crashed in Uttarkashi district, killing six people, including the pilot. One person survived.

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Irish politician faces deportation from Egypt after trying to cross into Gaza

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Irish politician faces deportation from Egypt after trying to cross into Gaza

An Irish politician who was detained in Egypt trying to cross into Gaza says the police were violent towards the group after seizing his phone.

People Before Profit-Solidarity TD (MP) Paul Murphy was part of a large demonstration attempting to march to the Rafah crossing in a bid to get aid into the region.

The opposition politician said his phone and passport were confiscated on Friday before he was put on a bus to Cairo airport for deportation.

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Footage of the seconds before his phone was seized shows authorities forcibly dragging protesters away from the sit-down demonstration.

Ireland’s deputy premier said several Irish citizens who were detained have now been released. Mr Murphy confirmed he was among the released protesters, posting a photo on his Facebook page saying he was back in Cairo and “meeting shortly to decide next steps”.

In a message from Mr Murphy after he was detained, posted online by his social media team, he said: “I’m ok, but they still have my phone.

“Egyptian police say we’re going to airport but this isn’t the road we came on because there are 1000s of marchers on the streets. They’re taking us south past a lake, then west towards Cairo.

“Violence got worse after they seized my phone.

“One American woman in my group was badly kicked & beaten, and had her hijab torn off.”

Sky News has contacted Egypt’s police regarding Mr Murphy’s claims of violence towards the group.

Mr Murphy previously said other Irish citizen were among those who had been stopped from entering Gaza.

“The world has watched a horrific genocide for the past 20 months. Since March, a total attempt of starvation,” he added.

“And that this is a peaceful march to demand that it be ended and demand that western governments stop their complicity.”

Appeal to foreign affairs minister

Mr Murphy’s partner, Councillor Jess Spear, had previously appealed to Ireland’s Foreign Affairs Minister and deputy premier Simon Harris to make a public statement on Mr Murphy’s detention.

She expressed “relief” that the group had been released from detention.

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The deadly road to Gaza aid point

She said: “However, they still want to reach Rafah to try and get humanitarian aid into Gaza. That has been the sole purpose of being in Egypt.

“Paul has appealed to Tanaiste Simon Harris to put pressure on the Egyptian authorities to let the marchers reach Rafah. The situation of the people of Gaza worsens by the day as they suffer starvation imposed by Israel.”

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Nuclear threat wasn’t the only reason Israel attacked Iran

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Nuclear threat wasn't the only reason Israel attacked Iran

Why did Israel attack Iran? Certainly, it was worried about the threat of a nuclear weapon being developed.

But it’s also becoming clearer that there was a second reason – that this is about laying the ground for regime change in Tehran.

Follow latest: Israel warns ‘Tehran will burn’ if it continues

Because, hours after his country launched its first, surprise attack, the message from Benjamin Netanyahu couldn’t be clearer – Iranians, he said, should overthrow their “evil and oppressive regime”. He said Israel’s attack would “pave the way for you to achieve your freedom”.

On the one hand, he would say that, wouldn’t he? The Iranian government does not recognise the legitimacy of the Israeli state and has called for its destruction, while funding proxy groups that have attacked Israel – including Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen.

But perhaps this time there is more than just wishful thinking.

Although it’s very hard to gauge the level of opposition in Iran, it seems likely the majority of the population of 90 million are at least disenchanted with the regime.

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Netanyahu calls on Iranians to help “thwart” Tehran regime

Living standards have fallen and supplies are running short. While tens of billions of dollars have been spent on a nuclear programme, electricity is being rationed and cooking gas is running low.

Priority is being given to those who are close to the regime, notably the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of the Iranian army that is fiercely loyal to the ruling regime.

The IRGC are crucial in propping up Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s 86-year-old supreme leader. Not only do they offer military power, but also domestic surveillance, intimidation and secret policing in order to stifle dissent.

So for any opposition to emerge, let alone flourish, the IRGC would need to be degraded – and that is precisely what Israel has done, targeting its senior leaders as well as bases.

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The regular army, so far, has been left alone. Israel’s gamble is that a majority of the rest of the military harbour the same dislike of the IRGC as the wider population.

It was no coincidence that Netanyahu quoted the expression “woman, life, freedom”, which was a rallying call during the 2022 protests in Iran – eventually suppressed by the IRGC.

It is very hard to believe that a coherent, public opposition movement will burst into life any time soon. Iranians are well aware their regime will respond with brutality against any attempted uprising.

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Iranian ballistic missile strikes Israel

Instead, dissidents seem to be biding their time and waiting to see if Israel continues its assaults, and whether they can sense genuine signs that the regime is starting to struggle to maintain control. If the cracks emerge, then regime change – or at least an attempt – is possible.

Possible, but not certain. “They will do anything to stay in power, and when other uprisings have happened, they’ve been successfully suppressed,” one Middle East diplomat tells me.

“And there is no unifying leader ready to step in. Even if there is regime change, it could be a military takeover rather than a popular uprising.”

Read more:
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And that leaves one final question – if Khamenei did feel his grip on power was failing, might he still have the time, desire and power to resort to final, desperate military actions? The truth is, we don’t know.

At the moment, the Middle East is a region full of unanswerable, high-risk questions.

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