Elon Musk wants you to believe Tesla is about to deliver self-driving without any data
There was one big thing missing from Tesla’s autonomy event yesterday: data. Elon Musk wants you to believe Tesla is about to deliver self-driving, but you just have to believe him despite the fact that he has been wrong about it every year for the past five years.
Yesterday, Tesla unveiled a cool-looking car, the Cybercab, that is entirely reliant on making Full Self-Driving (FSD) work, which was supposed to happen every year for the past 5 years, according to Elon Musk’s own statements.
Every year since 2019, Musk said that he expects Tesla to upgrade its supervised FSD into an unsupervised FSD, as promised, by the end of the year.
At one point, the CEO claimed that his inaccurate timelines were due to achieving “local maximums” in the software, which they couldn’t see until they hit those ceilings. Despite this problem, he keeps giving new timelines and selling the product while Tesla could still be running into local maximums.
What I wanted from Tesla’s event yesterday was to know what makes this time different. Musk said that Tesla is going to deliver unsupervised self-driving on current vehicles in California and Texas next year.
Then, Cybercab will follow when it enters production in 2026 or 2027.
But again, why should we believe Musk this time?
I was expecting one of two things that Tesla would announce at the event to build more confidence:
- Tesla would share data about FSD that shows real progress – something Tesla has never done. Really, it has never released FSD data beyond the number of miles covered. No disengagement nor intervention data.
- A change in strategy that would involve deploying level 4 self-driving in geo-fenced areas – a business model closer to what Waymo is doing.
Tesla did neither. Instead, it’s business as usual with FSD, which currently needs a 500-1000x improvement in miles between interventions.
The latest disengagement data crowdsourced by Tesla owners shows that FSD is currently at about 123 miles between disengagement and the pace of improvement is far from impressive:
Until Tesla shows a clear path toward 100,000+ miles between disengagmeeent, a steering wheel-less robotaxi is pretty meaningless, which explains why Tesla’s stock is down by as much as 10% following the event.
Instead of sharing some data about the program, which Tesla certainly has after over 1.6 billion miles on FSD, Musk decided to again only reference direct personal experiences that customers have with Tesla’s Supervised FSD.
I am not discounting that Supervised FSD can be impressive, and if it was being developed in a vacuum without Musk giving unreasonable timelines and selling promises to customers for up to $15,000, I think we would all be talking differently about this product.
But right now, even though you can have an impressive 100-mile drive without issue on FSD, it doesn’t translate into an unsupervised self-driving system because the data shows it can’t do it reliable thousands of times like a human could.
Now, that’s based on my own experience with the system over the last 3 years and the crowdsourced data. To be fair, the crowdsourced data only accounts for ~100,000 miles while Tesla has over 1.6 billion miles of data, but if Tesla refuses to share that data, I have to assume that it doesn’t look much better than the crowdsourced dataset.
But Fred, what about the demonstration at the event?
The Cybercab demos at the event were less impressive than FSD. Tesla chose the Warner Bros studio for a reason.
While these roads look like regular public roads, it’s a private studio set. Tesla doesn’t need to ask California for a self-driving permit to drive there. Tesla has always resisted testing unsupervised self-driving vehicles on California roads, something all other companies developing self-driving technologies are doing. Why? Because it would require them to share their data about disengagement.
Therefore, Tesla tuned FSD to work “unsupervised” on these private roads for the event. Also, I put “unsupervised” in quotes because they were unsupervised from inside the vehicle, but it looks like Tesla had staff tracking the demo vehicles and controlling their departures and arrivals.
Electrek’s Take
In short, Tesla needs to release its FSD data to show a clear path toward over 100,000 miles between disengagement. Otherwise, this whole thing is pretty meaningless. The Cybercab looks awesome. I love the design.
The fact that it only has two seats is a bit annoying, but it’s true that 90% of rideshare rides are for two passengers or fewer.
For higher volume transit, there’s the new Robovan, but it has the same FSD problem as all other Tesla vehicles.
Optimus looked to have had a meaningful improvement, but it is still ways from being useful and as per many attendees, it seems likely that there was at least a certain level of remote control.
Overall the event was very low in details and new information. It could have been an email. Looks like Tesla wanted to throw a party for its shareholders.
A party that cost them about $50 billion in valuation.
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Slate Auto, a new EV startup backed by Jeff Bezos, has poached a key Tesla manufacturing leader to build its electric pickup truck factory in Indiana.
Napoleon Reyes is a US Marine from Indiana who got a degree in mechanical engineering from Purdue after leaving the force.
He then worked a few years at Subaru and Wabash before joining Tesla’s manufacturing team at the Fremont Factory in 2020.
There, he became part of the Model Y production ramp and was quickly promoted to lead the Model Y General Assembly in Fremont in 2022.
Reyes led Model Y GA, one of the most critical parts of vehicle manufacturing, for more than a year before being promoted again to lead new pilot processes at the factory.
Most recently, he led the launch of the general assembly line for the Model Y refresh.
The new engineering manager announced this week that he is leaving Tesla to join Slate:
A bit late on the post but after nearly 5 years working at Tesla in Fremont, I made the difficult decision to leave the Company and move closer to home with my family. It was an incredible experience being part of multiple line expansions and multiple Model Y program launches. Leading and managing the Model Y Refresh launch for GA in Fremont this year tested me professionally however we ultimately succeeded due to our amazing cross functional team collaboration. It’s been an absolute pleasure working with such great people, and I will forever be proud and thankful for everything we accomplished together.
I will be taking on a new role as Senior Manager, Plant Vehicle Engineering at Slate Auto in Warsaw, In.
Slate emerged from stealth mode earlier this year to unveil a new type of electric pickup truck featuring modular customization and an affordable price.
The company raised over $700 million through two rounds of investments from several different investors, including Jeff Bezos. It is currently raising more, which basically guarantees that it will be able to reach production.
The startup acquired a former printing plant in Warsaw, Indiana. It is currently converting to manufacture its electric pickup with a team from legacy automakers and also several former engineers and leaders from Tesla.
Rich Schmidt, an early Tesla manufacturing director, is the head of manufacturing.
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Genesis is preparing to shake things up with its most luxurious SUV yet, the GV90. Thanks to a new patent filing, we are getting a detailed look at how its Rolls-Royce-style coach doors will work.
New patent reveals Genesis GV90 coach door system
When Genesis first unveiled the full-size SUV at the NY Auto Show last March, it wasn’t the stunning design or advanced tech that caught everyone’s attention. It was the coach doors.
Although we were worried it wouldn’t make it to the production model, like many concepts, the Genesis GV90 will be offered with coach doors.
The ultra-luxe electric SUV was first caught with coach doors earlier this year on a car carrier in South Korea. Just last month, the GV90 was spotted in California with a hinge at the rear to open the coach doors.
After several new patents were filed with the United States Patent and Trademark Office for new door latching devices, we are getting a sneak peek at how they are expected to work.
The patents, titled “Cinching Device For Door Latches in Vehicle,” and “Door Latch Device for Vehicles,” give a pretty detailed explanation of how the Genesis GV90’s coach doors will operate. The “Door Latch Device” uses a door striker on the lower side of the door, which is opened or closed by a hinge unit.
Unlike traditional doors, which use the B-pillar for support, the device is attached directly to the door itself, allowing for hinge-like movement.
The cinching device works in a similar way. It’s also attached to the door and part of the vehicle. However, unlike most of its kind, Genesis found a way to use a single cinching device to control multiple units. Again, the device is used for B-pillarless doors that swing open.
Genesis already said that B-pillarless coach doors are now feasible in production vehicles. The patent reveals a glimpse into how the luxury automaker could make it a reality.
Although the Genesis GV90 is expected to be offered with coach doors, they will likely not be standard. Other variants, with traditional door handles, have also been spotted testing in the US and South Korea.
Genesis is expected to launch the GV90 in mid-2026. It will be built at Hyundai’s Ulsan plant in South Korea. The flagship Genesis SUV is scheduled to debut on Hyundai’s new eM platform, which the company said will “provide 50% improvement in driving range.” It will also be loaded with the latest technology, software, connectivity, and Level 3 or higher autonomous driving capabilities.
Source: USPTO
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Environment
Podcast: Tesla Model YL, more Tesla probes and lawsuits, new Nissan Leaf pricing, and more
In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss the launch of the Tesla Model YL, more Tesla probes and lawsuits, new Nissan Leaf pricing, and more.
The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
We now have a Patreon if you want to help us avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.
Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET:
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