There was one big thing missing from Tesla’s autonomy event yesterday: data. Elon Musk wants you to believe Tesla is about to deliver self-driving, but you just have to believe him despite the fact that he has been wrong about it every year for the past five years.
Yesterday, Tesla unveiled a cool-looking car, the Cybercab, that is entirely reliant on making Full Self-Driving (FSD) work, which was supposed to happen every year for the past 5 years, according to Elon Musk’s own statements.
Every year since 2019, Musk said that he expects Tesla to upgrade its supervised FSD into an unsupervised FSD, as promised, by the end of the year.
At one point, the CEO claimed that his inaccurate timelines were due to achieving “local maximums” in the software, which they couldn’t see until they hit those ceilings. Despite this problem, he keeps giving new timelines and selling the product while Tesla could still be running into local maximums.
What I wanted from Tesla’s event yesterday was to know what makes this time different. Musk said that Tesla is going to deliver unsupervised self-driving on current vehicles in California and Texas next year.
Then, Cybercab will follow when it enters production in 2026 or 2027.
But again, why should we believe Musk this time?
I was expecting one of two things that Tesla would announce at the event to build more confidence:
Tesla would share data about FSD that shows real progress – something Tesla has never done. Really, it has never released FSD data beyond the number of miles covered. No disengagement nor intervention data.
A change in strategy that would involve deploying level 4 self-driving in geo-fenced areas – a business model closer to what Waymo is doing.
Tesla did neither. Instead, it’s business as usual with FSD, which currently needs a 500-1000x improvement in miles between interventions.
The latest disengagement data crowdsourced by Tesla owners shows that FSD is currently at about 123 miles between disengagement and the pace of improvement is far from impressive:
Until Tesla shows a clear path toward 100,000+ miles between disengagmeeent, a steering wheel-less robotaxi is pretty meaningless, which explains why Tesla’s stock is down by as much as 10% following the event.
Instead of sharing some data about the program, which Tesla certainly has after over 1.6 billion miles on FSD, Musk decided to again only reference direct personal experiences that customers have with Tesla’s Supervised FSD.
I am not discounting that Supervised FSD can be impressive, and if it was being developed in a vacuum without Musk giving unreasonable timelines and selling promises to customers for up to $15,000, I think we would all be talking differently about this product.
But right now, even though you can have an impressive 100-mile drive without issue on FSD, it doesn’t translate into an unsupervised self-driving system because the data shows it can’t do it reliable thousands of times like a human could.
Now, that’s based on my own experience with the system over the last 3 years and the crowdsourced data. To be fair, the crowdsourced data only accounts for ~100,000 miles while Tesla has over 1.6 billion miles of data, but if Tesla refuses to share that data, I have to assume that it doesn’t look much better than the crowdsourced dataset.
But Fred, what about the demonstration at the event?
The Cybercab demos at the event were less impressive than FSD. Tesla chose the Warner Bros studio for a reason.
While these roads look like regular public roads, it’s a private studio set. Tesla doesn’t need to ask California for a self-driving permit to drive there. Tesla has always resisted testing unsupervised self-driving vehicles on California roads, something all other companies developing self-driving technologies are doing. Why? Because it would require them to share their data about disengagement.
Therefore, Tesla tuned FSD to work “unsupervised” on these private roads for the event. Also, I put “unsupervised” in quotes because they were unsupervised from inside the vehicle, but it looks like Tesla had staff tracking the demo vehicles and controlling their departures and arrivals.
Electrek’s Take
In short, Tesla needs to release its FSD data to show a clear path toward over 100,000 miles between disengagement. Otherwise, this whole thing is pretty meaningless. The Cybercab looks awesome. I love the design.
The fact that it only has two seats is a bit annoying, but it’s true that 90% of rideshare rides are for two passengers or fewer.
For higher volume transit, there’s the new Robovan, but it has the same FSD problem as all other Tesla vehicles.
Optimus looked to have had a meaningful improvement, but it is still ways from being useful and as per many attendees, it seems likely that there was at least a certain level of remote control.
Overall the event was very low in details and new information. It could have been an email. Looks like Tesla wanted to throw a party for its shareholders.
A party that cost them about $50 billion in valuation.
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That network of dependable high-speed chargers, paired with solid app integration that makes it easy for Tesla drivers to find available chargers just about anywhere in the US, gave the brand a leg up – but no more. By opening up the Supercharger network to brands like Ford, Hyundai, Kia, and others, Tesla has given away its biggest competitive advantage.
Add in charging and route-planning apps like Chargeway, that make navigating the transition from CCS to NACS easier than ever with its intuitive colors and numbers and easy on/off switch for vehicles equipped with NACS adapters, and it feels like the time is right to start suggesting alternatives to the old EV industry stalwarts. As such, that’s exactly what I’m going to do.
Here, then, are my picks for the best Tesla S3XY (and Cybertruck) alternatives you can buy.
Less Model S, more Lucid Air
Lucid Air sedans; via Lucid.
Developed by OG Tesla Model S engineers with tunes from Annie Get Your Gun playing continuously in their heads, the Lucid Air promises to be the car Tesla should and could have built, if only Elon had listened to the engineers.
With panel fit, material finish, and overall build quality that’s at least as good as anything else in the automotive space, the Lucid Air is a compelling alternative to the Model S at every price level – and I, for one, would take a “too f@#king fast” Lucid Air Sapphire over an “as seen on TV” Model S Plaid any day of the week. And, with Supercharger access reportedly coming later this quarter, Air buyers will have every advantage the Supercharger Network can provide.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Less Model 3, more Hyundai IONIQ 6
2025 Hyundai IONIQ 6 Limited; via Hyundai.
Hyundai has been absolutely killing it these days, with EVs driving record sales and new models earning rave reviews from the automotive press. Even in that company the IONIQ 6 stands out, with up to 338 miles of EPA-rated range and lickety-quick 350 kW charging available to make road tripping easy – especially now that the aerodynamically efficient IONIQ 6 has Supercharger access through a NACS adapter (the 2026 “facelift” models get a NACS port as standard).
Once upon a time, Mrs. Jo Borrás and I were shopping three-row SUVs and found ourselves genuinely drawn to the then-new Model X. Back then it was the only three-row EV on the market, but it wasn’t Elon’s antics or access to charging, or even the Model X’s premium pricing that squirreled the deal. It was the stupid doors.
We went with the similarly new Volvo XC90 T8 in denim blue, and followed up the big PHEV with a second, three years later, in Osmium Gray. When it’s time to replace this one, you can just about bet your house that the new 510 hp EX90 with 310 miles of all-electric range will be near the top of the shopping list.
The sporty EV6 GT made its global debut by drag racing some of the fastest ICE-powered cars of the day, including a Lamborghini, Mercedes-AMG GT, a Porsche, even a turbocharged Ferrari – and it beat the pants off ’em. Combine supercar-baiting speed with an accessible price tag, NACS accessibility, $10,000 in customer cash on remaining 2024 models ($3,000 on 2025s) and just a hint of Lancia Stratos in the styling, the EV6 is tough to beat.
If you disagree with that statement and feel like driving a new Tesla Cybertruck is the key to happiness, I’m not sure an equally ostentatious GMC Hummer EV or more subtle Rivian R1T will help you scratch that particular itch – but maybe therapy might!
HONORABLE MENTIONS
COMMENTER FAVORITES
Not getting the USAF joke.
Projecting obsessions onto the author.
Feeling butthurt about the Pit Vipers and tribal tats.
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Komatsu-Dimag mobile charger at work; rendering via ChatGPT.
There’s no question that electric construction equipment is safer, more precise, and generally better than the diesel equipment it’s replacing, but getting power to that equipment remains a logistical challenge that hasn’t been solved for. With this new mobile Megawatt charging station, however, Komatsu think they’ve found a solution — with up to 6 MW of power!
Developed by Tesla co-founder Ian Wright, Dimaag, and Japanese equipment giant Komatsu, the groundbreaking Mobile Megawatt Charging System (MWCS) promises to bring electricity where it’s needed, anywhere on the job site, then quickly dispense enough energy to get the electric machines under its care back up and running.
And, with Megawatt power delivery on tap, the new Komatsu-Dimaag MWCS can power up equipment assets between shift changes — if it even takes that long!
Komatsu Dimaag mobile charger
Mobile Megawatt charger; via Dimaag.
The MWCS boasts a compact, high-efficiency DC-DC converter and a long-life, high-discharge-rate Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) on board that can be connected to a DC fast charger itself, or get “trickle charged” between shifts. Both the battery and its control systems make use of an advanced thermal management solution that Komatsu and Dimaag say optimizes both safety and battery life during high-power delivery.
To make sure the MWCS can get all that power where it needs to, wherever it needs to, the machine is equipped with with stout, construction-grade AT tires, 4-wheel drive, and 4-wheel steering to navigate tight surroundings and rough terrains that other solutions wouldn’t be able to get to. And, while it isn’t mentioned in the press release, there’s a common sense idea here that you could, in a pinch, use the MWCS to tow less capable vehicles out of the mud and snow, if needed.
For their part, it seems like the people at Dimaag are pretty happy with the results. “Dimaag is excited to collaborate with Komatsu, introducing our advanced ESS and DC-DC architecture to revolutionize electrification in construction,” stated Ian Wright, VP Engineering at Dimaag. “Off-road vehicle electrification demands practical solutions that not only meet but exceed the performance of equivalent large diesel engine vehicles, while also providing substantial Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) savings. Dimaag’s electrification and high-power megawatt charging systems are designed to achieve this.”
The prototype MWCS shown, above, features a 295 kWh battery pack and an MCS connector delivering up to 1,500 amps and 1,000 volts of power. Komatsu envisions a scenario wherein the mobile charger makes its rounds on the job site charging up equipment and heading back to grid power (if available) to charge itself.
Conceptually similar to the mobile power platform being developed by American firm Dannar, this new mobile Megawatt charging unit has some heavy-hitting names behind it that make it impossible to ignore. Combine that with Komatsu’s ever-increasing push towards full electrification (the two machines shown, above, are all-new in the last 60 days, with more to come) and it really feels like the MWCS is going to be A Real Thing™️somewhat sooner than later.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. The best part? No one will call you until after you’ve elected to move forward. Get started, hassle-free, by clicking here.
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That network of dependable high-speed chargers, paired with solid app integration that makes it easy for Tesla drivers to find available chargers just about anywhere in the US, gave the brand a leg up – but no more. By opening up the Supercharger network to brands like Ford, Hyundai, Kia, and others, Tesla has given away its biggest competitive advantage.
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Add in charging and route-planning apps like Chargeway, that make navigating the transition from CCS to NACS easier than ever with its intuitive colors and numbers and easy on/off switch for vehicles equipped with NACS adapters, and it feels like the time is right to start suggesting alternatives to the old EV industry stalwarts. As such, that’s exactly what I’m going to do.
Here, then, are my picks for the best Tesla S3XY (and Cybertruck) alternatives you can buy.
Less Model S, more Lucid Air
Lucid Air sedans; via Lucid.
Developed by OG Tesla Model S engineers with tunes from Annie Get Your Gun playing continuously in their heads, the Lucid Air promises to be the car Tesla should and could have built, if only Elon had listened to the engineers.
With panel fit, material finish, and overall build quality that’s at least as good as anything else in the automotive space, the Lucid Air is a compelling alternative to the Model S at every price level – and I, for one, would take a “too f@#king fast” Lucid Air Sapphire over an “as seen on TV” Model S Plaid any day of the week. And, with Supercharger access reportedly coming later this quarter, Air buyers will have every advantage the Supercharger Network can provide.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Less Model 3, more Hyundai IONIQ 6
2025 Hyundai IONIQ 6 Limited; via Hyundai.
Hyundai has been absolutely killing it these days, with EVs driving record sales and new models earning rave reviews from the automotive press. Even in that company the IONIQ 6 stands out, with up to 338 miles of EPA-rated range and lickety-quick 350 kW charging available to make road tripping easy – especially now that the aerodynamically efficient IONIQ 6 has Supercharger access through a NACS adapter (the 2026 “facelift” models get a NACS port as standard).
Once upon a time, Mrs. Jo Borrás and I were shopping three-row SUVs and found ourselves genuinely drawn to the then-new Model X. Back then it was the only three-row EV on the market, but it wasn’t Elon’s antics or access to charging, or even the Model X’s premium pricing that squirreled the deal. It was the stupid doors.
We went with the similarly new Volvo XC90 T8 in denim blue, and followed up the big PHEV with a second, three years later, in Osmium Gray. When it’s time to replace this one, you can just about bet your house that the new 510 hp EX90 with 310 miles of all-electric range will be near the top of the shopping list.
The sporty EV6 GT made its global debut by drag racing some of the fastest ICE-powered cars of the day, including a Lamborghini, Mercedes-AMG GT, a Porsche, even a turbocharged Ferrari – and it beat the pants off ’em. Combine supercar-baiting speed with an accessible price tag, NACS accessibility, $10,000 in customer cash on remaining 2024 models ($3,000 on 2025s) and just a hint of Lancia Stratos in the styling, the EV6 is tough to beat.
If you disagree with that statement and feel like driving a new Tesla Cybertruck is the key to happiness, I’m not sure an equally ostentatious GMC Hummer EV or more subtle Rivian R1T will help you scratch that particular itch – but maybe therapy might!
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. The best part? No one will call you until after you’ve elected to move forward. Get started, hassle-free, by clicking here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.