Elon Musk wants you to believe Tesla is about to deliver self-driving without any data
There was one big thing missing from Tesla’s autonomy event yesterday: data. Elon Musk wants you to believe Tesla is about to deliver self-driving, but you just have to believe him despite the fact that he has been wrong about it every year for the past five years.
Yesterday, Tesla unveiled a cool-looking car, the Cybercab, that is entirely reliant on making Full Self-Driving (FSD) work, which was supposed to happen every year for the past 5 years, according to Elon Musk’s own statements.
Every year since 2019, Musk said that he expects Tesla to upgrade its supervised FSD into an unsupervised FSD, as promised, by the end of the year.
At one point, the CEO claimed that his inaccurate timelines were due to achieving “local maximums” in the software, which they couldn’t see until they hit those ceilings. Despite this problem, he keeps giving new timelines and selling the product while Tesla could still be running into local maximums.
What I wanted from Tesla’s event yesterday was to know what makes this time different. Musk said that Tesla is going to deliver unsupervised self-driving on current vehicles in California and Texas next year.
Then, Cybercab will follow when it enters production in 2026 or 2027.
But again, why should we believe Musk this time?
I was expecting one of two things that Tesla would announce at the event to build more confidence:
- Tesla would share data about FSD that shows real progress – something Tesla has never done. Really, it has never released FSD data beyond the number of miles covered. No disengagement nor intervention data.
- A change in strategy that would involve deploying level 4 self-driving in geo-fenced areas – a business model closer to what Waymo is doing.
Tesla did neither. Instead, it’s business as usual with FSD, which currently needs a 500-1000x improvement in miles between interventions.
The latest disengagement data crowdsourced by Tesla owners shows that FSD is currently at about 123 miles between disengagement and the pace of improvement is far from impressive:
Until Tesla shows a clear path toward 100,000+ miles between disengagmeeent, a steering wheel-less robotaxi is pretty meaningless, which explains why Tesla’s stock is down by as much as 10% following the event.
Instead of sharing some data about the program, which Tesla certainly has after over 1.6 billion miles on FSD, Musk decided to again only reference direct personal experiences that customers have with Tesla’s Supervised FSD.
I am not discounting that Supervised FSD can be impressive, and if it was being developed in a vacuum without Musk giving unreasonable timelines and selling promises to customers for up to $15,000, I think we would all be talking differently about this product.
But right now, even though you can have an impressive 100-mile drive without issue on FSD, it doesn’t translate into an unsupervised self-driving system because the data shows it can’t do it reliable thousands of times like a human could.
Now, that’s based on my own experience with the system over the last 3 years and the crowdsourced data. To be fair, the crowdsourced data only accounts for ~100,000 miles while Tesla has over 1.6 billion miles of data, but if Tesla refuses to share that data, I have to assume that it doesn’t look much better than the crowdsourced dataset.
But Fred, what about the demonstration at the event?
The Cybercab demos at the event were less impressive than FSD. Tesla chose the Warner Bros studio for a reason.
While these roads look like regular public roads, it’s a private studio set. Tesla doesn’t need to ask California for a self-driving permit to drive there. Tesla has always resisted testing unsupervised self-driving vehicles on California roads, something all other companies developing self-driving technologies are doing. Why? Because it would require them to share their data about disengagement.
Therefore, Tesla tuned FSD to work “unsupervised” on these private roads for the event. Also, I put “unsupervised” in quotes because they were unsupervised from inside the vehicle, but it looks like Tesla had staff tracking the demo vehicles and controlling their departures and arrivals.
Electrek’s Take
In short, Tesla needs to release its FSD data to show a clear path toward over 100,000 miles between disengagement. Otherwise, this whole thing is pretty meaningless. The Cybercab looks awesome. I love the design.
The fact that it only has two seats is a bit annoying, but it’s true that 90% of rideshare rides are for two passengers or fewer.
For higher volume transit, there’s the new Robovan, but it has the same FSD problem as all other Tesla vehicles.
Optimus looked to have had a meaningful improvement, but it is still ways from being useful and as per many attendees, it seems likely that there was at least a certain level of remote control.
Overall the event was very low in details and new information. It could have been an email. Looks like Tesla wanted to throw a party for its shareholders.
A party that cost them about $50 billion in valuation.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Chevron is not seeing signs that the U.S. is close to a recession even as President Donald Trump’s tariffs weigh on expectations for oil demand, CEO Mike Wirth said Tuesday.
“There’s no signs that we see at this point that we are in or close to a recession,” Wirth told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “There are signs that growth may be slowing and we have to always be prepared for that.”
The International Monetary Fund on Monday cut its growth outlook for the U.S. this year to 1.8%, down from 2.7% previously.
The oil market is expecting reduced demand as a consequence of Trump’s tariffs and the decision by OPEC+ increase production faster than expected, Wirth said. Chevron isn’t changing its capital spending plans in response to drop in prices, the CEO said.
U.S. crude oil prices have fallen about 11% since Trump announced his tariffs on April 2. West Texas Intermediate was last up about 72 cents at $63.80 per barrel. OPEC and the International Energy Agency have cut their demand outlooks for this year.
Wirth said U.S. onshore oil production in patches like the Permian Basin is likely to pull back if prices hit $60 per barrel. Offshore production likely won’t be affected, he said.
“That’s an area where if we were to be at a $60 price or even lower you’re likely to see activity pull back in this sector and you’ll see the production response over a few months,” Wirth said. “That’s what we should watch, not so much the deep water activity.”
Chevron is not expecting a major direct impact on its business from Trump’s tariffs as energy has largely been exempt from the levies, Wirth said.
“The effects that we feel are likely to be more the macroeconomic effects as they flow through the economy,” Wirth said. “The bigger issues would be what would it mean for growth, and global trade and how does that evolve.”
Executives at oil and gas companies were scathing in their criticism of Trump’s tariffs in an anonymous March survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, warning that steel tariffs were raising their costs and low prices could impact their activity.
Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE
Join us at the New York Stock Exchange!
Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE, an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12.
Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
Little is known about super-secretive EV startup Slate, but the fledgling brand is rumored to be backed by Jeff Bezos and determined to shake up the existing electric order with an affordable lineup of compact SUVs and pickups with that golden $25,000 price tag.
Now, at least, we know what it’s gonna look like. The battle of the billionaires is on!
Redditor jonjopop over at the spotted subreddit spotted what looks like an early prototype of an unbranded SUV with bizarre “CryShare” wrap. CryShare, as a concept, seems to combine the functionality of a ride sharing app like Uber or Lyft with the familiar (to parent, anyway) idea that small babies will often sleep better in a moving car than in their own cribs … but that’s not what’s important here.
Instead, focus on the vehicle itself – parked on Abbot Kinney Boulevard in Los Angeles without explanation or fanfare, this is our best look yet at the kind of vehicle(s) Slate is likely to reveal in the coming days.
Stumbled upon the Bezosmobile [Slate Automotive…idk?] being revealed with an absolutely bizarre marketing campaign
byu/jonjopop inspotted
Other local automotive journalists caught wind of the public unveiling, too – and our friends at The Autopian (Hi, Matt!) sent their own David Tracy out on the streets of LA to check it out. Tracy took the following video and posted it to Instagram.
The Slate breaking cover and causing buzz just ahead of what’s sure to be a painful Q1 earnings call for Tesla is a masterstroke of marketing – especially as doubts surrounding the viability of a “less expensive” Tesla Model Y or Model 3 continue to mount amid the uncertainty of Trump’s tariffs and declining sales of the brand’s more profitable models both at home and abroad.
As with so much involving Slate, however, there is nothing here written in stone – or even cast in cheese. Nothing has been announced, nothing is promised, and for all we know this might have more to do with the affordable Rivian brand launch, a new BYD, or be a viral marketing bit from some local Art Center design student in (relatively) nearby Pasadena. In fact, about the only thing I think we can say about Bezos (?) new Slate project with confidence today is this: Elon could probably use that drink.
SOURCES | IMAGES: Reddit, The Autopian.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway