‘For public to judge’ if PM’s first 100 days a success – Downing Street

Published

2 months ago

October 11, 2024

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It is “for the public to judge” whether Labour’s first 100 days of government has gone well, Downing Street said amid Sir Keir Starmer’s sinking poll ratings.

The prime minister’s official spokesperson declined to say if his first three months in office have been a success, ahead of the milestone being hit tomorrow.

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PM’s approval rating drops

Governments traditionally seek to set a positive, dynamic tone in their first 100 days, targeting quick, visible actions that can establish a narrative about what they are doing and where they are going.

But Sir Keir has struggled to do this amid a row over donations and freebies and backlash within his own ranks about policies like the cut to the winter fuel payment, which have damaged his approval ratings.

Asked about whether the first 100 days could be viewed as a success, a Number 10 spokeswoman said: “That is for the public to judge. The government is focused on delivery and the action that it takes.”

A drinks reception to celebrate the milestone was also ruled out.

Multiple polls suggest Labour’s popularity with the public has plunged since its general election landslide in July.

A survey published today by YouGov found 59% of people disapproved of its record so far, while just 18% approved.

Two policies in particular drew anger – scrapping the universal winter fuel allowance and releasing prisoners early to ease overcrowding.

Ministers blamed the measures on their inheritance from the Tories, including a £22bn “blackhole” in the public finances and a prison system on the brink of collapse.

The YouGov poll showed there was majority support for other policies, such as making a pay deal with junior doctors, lifting the ban on onshore wind farms, keeping the two-child benefit cap and suspending some arms sales to Israel.

But overall, four in ten said the country is in a worse state since the election, and nearly half of those who voted Labour said they had positive expectations but feel let down so far.

In a double whammy of bad polling, research by Ipsos found over half (52%) of Britons are unfavourable towards Sir Keir – the highest level since he became Labour leader.

Labour are also leading the Conservatives by just one point, down 11% from the summer, according to a survey by More In Common published earlier this week.

The prime minister’s spokeswoman cited reform of workplace rights and “action to deliver growth” when asked to list some of the new government’s achievements.

Speaking later to reporters, Sir Keir pointed to the first meeting of the Council of Nations and Regions, featuring devolved leaders from across the UK, as well as promises of up to £24bn investment in green projects.

He refused to be drawn on a separate paused £1bn investment into a port in London following comments made by ministers about P&O Ferries, saying a summit on Monday, when the funding was due to be announced, will still attract global financiers which will be “very good for the country”.

Sir Keir also dodged a question on the whereabouts of Sue Gray, who was not at the meeting of devolved leaders today despite being appointed as an envoy to the “nations and regions” following her resignation as his chief of staff.

The government will look to the budget on 30 October as an opportunity to set a more positive narrative about its direction, amid speculation Capital Gains Tax could be increased to fund crumbling public services.

Politics

Labour’s polling collapse is historic – but Nigel Farage has overseen a bigger one

Published

3 hours ago

December 22, 2024

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Labour's polling collapse is historic - but Nigel Farage has overseen a bigger one

Labour are on track for their worst end to the year in opinion polls since the Second World War.

Sir Keir Starmer‘s party is now averaging just 26.6%, despite winning one of the largest-ever majorities five months ago.

Analysis of nearly 1,000 polls across 75 years found Labour are now 1% behind their previous end-of-year low in 2016, when Jeremy Corbyn‘s tenure was dogged by an antisemitism row and leadership challenges.

The only other years to rival their current low were 1981, when the new SDP-Liberal Alliance upended politics, and after a decade of power in 2009, when the party was reeling from the recession and expenses scandal.

Labour are still leading the polls, but are now just 0.5% ahead of the Conservatives – well down on their 19% lead in January.

Kemi Badenoch‘s party has been practically stagnant for some time. It now sits on 26.1%, barely 2% above when Liz Truss resigned.

Reform UK is several points behind on 21%, with the Liberal Democrats on 11.8% and the Greens on 7.7%.

The analysis for Sky News’ Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips calculated averages using the first and last 10 polls of each year (or first and last five before 1997, when polls were less frequent).

The Labour Party’s current standing is a far cry from the 44% share it enjoyed in January.

Its 17.6% fall since then is the biggest calendar-year collapse in support ever recorded in UK-wide polls.

Only twice has a bigger drop happened more suddenly.

The first was Nigel Farage‘s start-up Brexit Party in 2019, which surged to first place in the European Parliament elections after weeks of Commons deadlock over negotiations.

Within six months, its support was largely absorbed by Boris Johnson‘s Conservatives.

Bigger still was the Liberal Democrat collapse of 2010 – its “Cleggmania” wave during the May election campaign evaporated weeks after becoming the unpopular coalition government’s junior partner.

But history suggests all is not yet lost for Labour.

When they ended the year below 30% in 2009 and 2016, they rebounded more than 10% the following year.

And Margaret Thatcher recovered from a similar low of 27% in 1981 to win a 144-seat majority – though she was buoyed by the Falklands War.

The year’s biggest winner by far is Reform UK.

Our analysis shows its more-than-doubling is the fourth-biggest jump seen in a calendar year in peacetime.

But with a general election still four years away, its challenge is holding on to that momentum.

No third party experiencing such a surge since the war has maintained its support beyond two years.

On the final Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips of 2024, Trevor will be joined by Leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell and shadow housing secretary Kevin Hollinrake.

Watch it live on Sky News from 8.30am, and follow along live on the Politics Hub.