Okay, Robotaxi looks cool. But how is this better than Model 2?
Tesla’s Robotaxi event came and went last night, and we finally learned (very few) new details about the much-hyped car that CEO Elon Musk thinks will add $5 trillion to Tesla’s market capitalization.
But the main thing it left me (still) thinking is: why does this car even exist?
Tesla has been talking about robotaxis for a long time, so of course it makes sense that it would unveil a robotaxi… right?
But here’s the rub: when Tesla first started talking about robotaxis, it was in the context of the Model 3 and other vehicles that the company already makes.
As far back as 2016, Tesla was talking about “Tesla Network,” a proposed system that would allow Tesla owners to send out their cars to work as taxis once the company had solved full self-driving.
I mentioned all of this in my Tesla Model 3 review back in 2018, showing some of the details that indicated that Tesla was getting ready for this robotaxi future – such as the use of a phone as a key and an interior camera to keep tabs on occupants.
And this wouldn’t just be applicable to certain vehicles, but to all cars that Tesla makes. Because Tesla also said that all its cars come with the hardware for full self-driving as early as late 2016.
Musk even went so far as to say that Tesla will stop selling cars once it solves autonomy. The idea is that those cars would be more profitable to keep around as robotaxis, that each would be worth $100k-$200k due to this function and that they should be considered “appreciating assets” as a result. (Though Musk did say last night that Tesla will sell Robotaxis for $30k, which runs counter to this past assertion of his).
So there is a long history of Tesla referring to its vehicles as potential future robotaxis, rather than talking about an individual robotaxi product. And it even said the same last night, as there were 20 Robotaxis and 30 other Tesla vehicles shuttling people around at the event. Musk reiterated last night that all cars Tesla makes would be capable of full autonomy, and even said that existing cars would be driving all by themselves prior to when he said the Robotaxi will hit the road in 2026-2027 (though he stumbled and said “let’s not get nuanced here” when the crowd asked whether this would apply to HW3 cars, which Tesla previously promised full autonomy for).
But hey, maybe it makes sense to release an individual Robotaxi product that would be fully focused on this function and no other, in order to save cost and reduce complexity.
That’s certainly an argument, and Tesla’s announced $30k starting price for the Robotaxi/Cybercab product (even Musk seemed unsure which name to call it) is a lower price than any vehicle the company has sold yet, and among the cheapest price we’ve ever seen for an EV (shout out to the all-time value winner, the now-defunct Chevy Bolt).
Also, I have to say, it looked great out there. Compared to the previous renderings/models/spy shot we’ve seen, I thought the final product looked fantastic. If it were just a normal EV, with that design, a small sporty low 2-seater for about that price, I’m sold.
A smaller car, without many of the creature comforts that might be desired by a driver, with more simplicity for less maintenance and easier cleaning, can certainly help to get costs down. And that’s great and needed. A $30k vehicle will be available to more people than a $42k Model 3, the next-cheapest car Tesla currently sells.
But…. why not a $25k Model 2 then?
Tesla already had the answer to this question: the cancelled Model 2
So if Tesla wants to have a cheaper, simpler car that is capable of robo-driving tasks, and if it’s still clear that all of its vehicles will gain this capability, why doesn’t it just make the cheaper, simpler car that it’s been talking about for years: the Model 2.
Not much was known about the Model 2, except that it would be a cheaper, smaller EV, starting at $25,000 – long thought to be the appropriate entry-level for consumer vehicles (the cheapest gas cars in America are around $17k – and a $25k EV would cost about the same after the $7,500 federal tax credit).
But earlier this year, it was reported that Tesla was shutting down Model 2 development. Musk denied that report, but like many of Musk’s denials, it turned out to be true.
Instead, Musk directed the company to pivot to Robotaxi, and rhetorically, he has been talking a lot more about robotaxis, artificial general intelligence robots, and various other pie-in-the-sky promises, in keeping with the tech buzzword du jour..
But while there’s a lot of demand in the stock market for CEOs who incessantly talk about AI, there’s also a lot of demand in the car market for a cheap electric vehicle. And Tesla is a car company, after all, not a stock company (isn’t it?).
And what we do know from the event is that Tesla thinks they can make a self-driving electric vehicle for under $30k, and that that vehicle would be “over-specced” for what it is, using a more powerful AI computer than necessary. And they think they can do this within the next 2 years or so.
If these two things are possible, I believe that those efforts would be better channeled towards the Model 2, rather than the Robotaxi.
While Musk stated in the event that existing vehicles would be capable of full autonomy before the Robotaxi starts shipping, I don’t think anyone believes this. After a decade of FSD coming “at the end of next year,” the boy has thoroughly cried wolf and this timeline does not seem realistic.
Further, Musk said that it would come to California and Texas first, pending regulatory approval. Even if Tesla does swiftly get regulatory approval in those states, that still limits the addressable market while it works to scale up and get approved in other regions. The process of homologating a Model 2 would go much more smoothly than that, and could be sold globally much faster.
And while Tesla’s car timelines also tend to slip by several years, with how long we’ve been talking about a “cheaper Tesla car” and its relative similarity to existing vehicles (as opposed to the vast differences involved in making a Cybertruck or Roadster), I also think the Model 2 could have been manufactured before Robotaxi could (especially when taking into account regulatory timelines).
If that’s the case, then wouldn’t it be better for Tesla to make this car that I believe would be ready before Robotaxi will, that will fulfill a need for a lot of buyers right now (especially in a circumstance where affordable Chinese EVs are popular enough to force protectionist trade measures), that would have global appeal, and that will have all the capabilities of a Robotaxi once (or if) FSD finally ever gets solved?
Maybe it’s about cost-cutting… or maybe it’s about the stock
Now, perhaps part of the reason for Model 2’s cancellation is because Tesla did not see enough cost-cutting possible to build an EV for $25k, or thought the level of cutting would be too severe to sell desirable consumer vehicles at that price. With a Robotaxi, perhaps customers would accept a more bare bones experience than in a Model 2 that they own as a personal vehicle, and maybe that’s the only way that Tesla can get the price down.
And there’s something to be said for a vehicle that’s fully autonomous-focused, with things like inductive charging and being designed for robo-vacuums to clean the car without human intervention (both were briefly glossed over in last night’s presentation).
But there’s definitely demand for a cheaper, human-driven EV, and I think Tesla got the order wrong on this one – it would be better to sell a bunch of Model 2s earlier than a bunch of Robotaxis later, since I don’t think full level 5 FSD, along with regulatory approval, is coming within the next year or two. And if you have to choose whether to have hardware or software ready first, you definitely want to choose software – because hardware costs a heck of a lot to build.
Or… maybe all this AI talk is more about the stock than it is about actual products, as alluded to above. This has been a common theory among Tesla haters for some time, but was never all that realistic because Tesla did and does sell a lot of cars, and a whole ecosystem around them of energy products like Powerwall and Superchargers, which work well and make a lot of revenue, with pretty good margins.
But when Musk suggests that Robotaxi will be worth $5 trillion in market cap, when he goes on a months-long rampage at the company to sell his own stock grant package to shareholders, and when he goes on about long-term dreams and how Tesla is going to change the world in 6 huge ways next year alone (really next year this time, I promise), that feels less like a mature and achievable product timeilne and more like a set of actions that are driven by a desire to, let’s say, make up for a really bad personal business decision that he funded on the back of TSLA’s formerly-high share price.
But if it is about that, it seems that Elon has run out of rope. The market, this time, doesn’t seem too convinced. Maybe instead of sky-high promises that nobody thinks will be met, and that you are burning public trust with each time you make them (or uh, maybe that’s happening for another reason)… people really do just want a cheaper car that everyone can buy.
Make it.
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Aptera has publicly unveiled the production-intent version of its long-awaited solar EV, which it says will start deliveries by the end of this year.
Update: We swung by the booth a took a few pictures of Aptera’s production-intent vehicle chassis, see below.
Aptera has a long history in the automotive space, dating all the way back to its original founding in 2006 by co-founders Steve Fambro and Chris Anthony. It has had the same basic teardrop design all along, but at the time it was going to be fueled by a small gas engine, promising 330 miles per gallon.
But the last iteration of Aptera hit many bumps in the road, and went defunct in 2011, having to return thousands of customer deposits.
Then, in 2019, the company was relaunched, by the same original founders as before. But this time, it had a solar-powered electric car – which, frankly, makes a lot more sense for a futuristic vehicle than a gas engine does.
That’s the iteration we’re on now, and six years later – and nearly 20 years after the company’s first founding – Aptera says it’s finally ready to produce its solar EV.
It’s showing off its production-intent chassis at the Consumer Electronics Show this week, offering the public a chance to see this vehicle which it says will go into production and delivery this year. Its booth is in the central plaza, outdoors in the sun – where a solar EV belongs.
The company has been showing off its progress towards production intent over the course of the last years, doing wind tunnel testing of what it claims will be one of the lowest-drag vehicles ever (with a previously-claimed .13 Cd), receiving carbon bodies in August and completing its first low-speed drive in October.
Now the car is out and about driving normally at CES (and Aptera is offering media ride-alongs, which we’ll hopefully get a chance to fit in). Aptera says that it drove the car for around 20 miles yesterday, and it ended the day with more charge than it started due to its extensive solar panels, which Aptera is showing off in production-intent form for the first time.
The panels cover the vehicle’s hood, dash, roof and hatch and Aptera says they can generate up to 40 miles of free driving per days, powered by sunlight. In sunny climates, this will give owners over 10,000 miles per year of solar-powered driving.
On a sunny Las Vegas winter day, as it was for the reveal, the solar panels should be working quite nicely (though they would work even better if it weren’t one of the shortest days of the year).
The unveil included a short livestream at Aptera’s outdoor booth in the Central Plaza, which you can watch below:
The livestream included a short speech by co-CEO Chris Anthony and a quick vehicle walkaround, including showing off the vehicle’s NACS port, which Aptera was the first to announce adoption of way back in 2022.
Aptera says it has another announcement coming soon regarding the vehicle’s battery pack, and that its anticipating offering track time in the car in a few months for investors (the company is funding itself through a crowdfunding campaign through which it has raised $135 million of equity).
Previously, Aptera said the vehicle would have multiple battery options, with 250, 400, and even 1,000-mile (!) battery packs (which this author thinks is unrealistically excessive, and frankly a sign for pause). But Aptera has backed off from talking much about its previous 1,000-mile target, and all we heard about during this reveal is the 400-mile, 45kWh pack that will be included on the company’s $40,000 launch edition vehicle (which will have limited options otherwise).
Aptera says that it anticipates first deliveries of its launch edition by the end of this year – a timeline which the company has stated before, but which we wouldn’t be surprised to see slip. Nevertheless, that’s the messaging.
Aptera says it has 50,000 reservations for its vehicle, at $100 a pop (or $70, if you use our Aptera referral link). You can reserve an Aptera over at Aptera’s website.
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Who said minivans weren’t cool? Hyundai’s first electric minivan (which could double as a camper van) was spotted in public without camouflage, giving us a better look at what to expect. Check out the upcoming EV below.
When will Hyundai’s first electric minivan launch?
Hyundai is preparing to launch its first all-electric minivan this year. The Staria is the electric successor to the Starex, Hyundai’s multi-purpose vehicle (MPV) introduced in 2021.
Last March, Hyundai revealed its new ST1 electric business van platform, based on the Staria powertrain. The ST1 is Hyundai’s first commercial EV with configurations including a refrigerated van and chassis cab. Meanwhile, the minivan will get its own model in 2025.
According to Korea’s Newsis, Hyundai will convert one of its production lines at its Ulsan Plant 4 on January 25, 2025, for the Staria electric.
Ahead of its official debut, we are already getting a look at Hyundai’s first electric minivan undisguised. The Staria EV was spotted by the online community “Family Staria” in a Korean parking lot without camouflage.
You can see that the EV model has a design similar to that of Hyundai’s Staria Lounge, which transforms from a seven- or nine-seat limousine into a full-fledged camper van.
Outside of the grille, which is now closed and includes a charging port, the electric minivan is a near replica of the premium Staria Lounge.
Given it’s still a test vehicle, the design could change once finalized. A tag on the windshield reads “Vehicle for UT Evaluation of the Road Vulnerable,” suggesting it has a few more tests before being released to the general public.
The Staria electric is expected to feature Hyundai’s latest 84 kWh batteries. Local reports suggest it will be able to handle over 10% more capacity than the ST1.
Hyundai’s first electric van is expected to launch in overseas markets. According to The Korean Economic Daily, Hyundai plans to start production of the Staria EV in Europe in the first half of 2026. European-made models will be sold locally and overseas, such as in Australia and Thailand.
Will Hyundai launch a camper van version like the Staria Lounge? More info will likely be released soon with an official launch expected this year. Stay tuned for updates.
Source: Mobility Post
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Environment
Elon Musk claims Tesla is doing ‘unsupervised self-driving trials’ while playing video games
Elon Musk is claiming that Tesla has started doing ‘unsupervised self-driving trials internally’. He made the claim while playing video games, and It should be taken with a grain, or pound, of salt.
Yesterday afternoon, on a Tuesday, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and defacto in charge of 6 companies and a government department, was playing video games and streaming on X for more than an hour.
During the stream, fans were asking him questions and one of them was about Tesla’s self-driving effort.
Musk said:
Tesla Full Self-Driving unsupervised, maybe I’ll mention, we are going to [correct himself], we actually are doing trials of that with Tesla employees already and we expect to have that in commercial service sometime this year, which I mentioned at the last earnings call.
There are two things that Musk said at the last earnings call. He did indeed claim that Tesla would launch its “unsupervised Full Self-Driving” capability in California and Texas around Q2 2025.
He also said that Tesla started testing its robotaxi ride-hailing app with employees in the Bay Area:
We have for Tesla employees in the Bay Area. We already are offering ride-hailing capabilities. So, you can actually — with the development app, you can request a ride, and it will take you anywhere in the Bay Area.
However, he also said that Tesla had “safety drivers” behind the wheel for this test program, which means that it is no more than its current “Supervised Full Self-Driving,” a level 2 driver assist system. It is mainly to test the ridesharing features of the app rather than a different version of its self-driving system.
That makes sense, considering that Tesla would need a permit to operate a self-driving vehicle in California, even as part of a test program, and we haven’t found Tesla’s permit application yet
With this new comment, Musk clearly said “unsupervised” self-driving.
Electrek’s Take
I wouldn’t be shocked if Elon misspoke here while playing video games or he is plain confused about the situation.
Considering Tesla doesn’t have any permit to operate driverless vehicles, if it is operating a “unsupervised self-driving trials internally”, it has to be doing it on private property, which could be no more than the Cybercabs we have seen driving around Gigafactory Texas.
It’s not much different than Tesla’s ‘We, Robot’ event, which was purposely located at Warner Bros’ studio lot, which are private roads.
I seriously doubt that Tesla is currently operating unsupervised self-driving vehicles on public roads.
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